宏观点评 20250612 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 如何"反内卷"？——关键在于定价权 2025 年 06 月 12 日 具体而言： 通过对沪深上市公司计算①自 2020 年至 2024 年毛利率标准差的倒数 （反映定价权，数值越高越好），②自 2020/1/2 至 2024/12/31 区间股价 涨跌幅可得： 在过去 5 年毛利率标准差的倒数低于 25%、介于 25%至 50%两组上市 公司中，区间股价涨跌幅为负的上市公司数量占比分别为 59.85%、 51.65%； 但在过去 5 年毛利率标准差的倒数介于 50%至 100%、高于 100%两组 上市公司中，区间股价涨跌幅为负的上市公司数量占比分别为 39.23%、 41.69%。 ◼ 风险提示：（1）对地方债支持化解政府拖欠企业账款的分析可能不够准 确；（2）对"反内卷"政策的落地情况可能梳理不全；（3）对"定价权" 的衡量方法可能不够完善。 2025-06-08 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书：S0600524120014 liuzb@dwzq.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment strategies in the context of increasing uncertainty in global trade and finance, emphasizing the importance of identifying high-quality assets that can withstand market fluctuations [2]. Group 1: Identifying Good Companies - The essence of investment is a series of trade-offs, focusing on business models, competitive advantages (moats), and margin of safety [4]. - A strong moat is crucial, with supply constraints being a significant factor that overlaps with the concept of a moat [5]. - A good business model creates substantial value for customers while allowing the company to capture some of that value, requiring pricing power [4][5]. Group 2: Characteristics of High-Quality Companies - High-quality companies are typically the most competitive in their industry, not necessarily the largest, and should consistently generate high return on equity (ROE) [7]. - Companies with potential for significant future ROE increases can also be considered high-quality [7]. Group 3: Industry Competition and Its Impact - The focus of research should be on supply rather than demand, as supply dynamics provide more reliable insights into competitive landscapes [8]. - Understanding the causes of a company's moat is essential, including factors like cost leadership and economies of scale [8][9]. Group 4: Learning from Failures - A notable failure involved a sofa company that, despite being competitive, lacked a deep moat, leading to intense competition and a lack of differentiation [10]. - This case highlights the need to focus on high-quality companies rather than merely competitive ones [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategy and Market Trends - The investment framework has evolved, moving away from outdated theories like PEG investing, focusing instead on sustainable growth and avoiding forced trades [15]. - Future structural opportunities in the A-share market are seen in consumption and pharmaceuticals, driven by rising disposable incomes and recent innovations [16][17]. - Structural risks arise from chasing hot themes without solid backing, emphasizing the importance of focusing on value creation [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the essence behind the rise of companies like Pang Donglai, which has shown resilience and growth despite industry challenges, focusing on trust and consumer confidence rather than idolizing entrepreneurs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Pang Donglai's Growth and Resilience - Pang Donglai has experienced significant visitor growth, with 2.7 million visitors during the 2023 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, increasing to 3 million in 2024 [4]. - The company's revenue has consistently increased from 7 billion yuan in 2022 to 10.7 billion yuan in 2023, and projected to reach 16.964 billion yuan in 2024, with Q1 2025 sales already surpassing 8 billion yuan [6]. - Pang Donglai's success is attributed to its unique ability to withstand economic cycles, rooted in its commitment to quality and consumer trust [3][6]. Group 2: Natural Advantages - Pang Donglai benefits from geographical advantages, being located in a transportation hub that allows efficient logistics for sourcing and distribution [9]. - The local population has increased from 870,000 to 1.33 million, providing a substantial customer base for Pang Donglai [11]. - The region's agricultural productivity and established supply chains enhance Pang Donglai's operational efficiency [12]. Group 3: Business Model and Philosophy - The company's initial strategy focused on building trust through a "genuine product" guarantee, which addressed consumer fears about counterfeit goods [20][24]. - Pang Donglai's commitment to customer satisfaction includes policies like "fake one, compensate ten" and unconditional returns, fostering a strong trust relationship with consumers [20][24]. - The company has maintained a philosophy of not engaging in discounting or promotions, believing that such practices harm customer trust and brand integrity [38]. Group 4: Quality Control and Supplier Relationships - Pang Donglai employs strict quality control measures, including a comprehensive supplier evaluation system and a rigorous quality traceability framework [50][51]. - The company prioritizes long-term relationships with suppliers, ensuring stable product quality and fostering a collaborative environment [55][56]. - Pang Donglai's approach to supplier management emphasizes mutual benefit, often increasing supplier margins to ensure quality and reliability in product sourcing [88]. Group 5: Brand Development and Future Outlook - The company is transitioning into a phase of developing its own brands, with plans for self-branded products to account for over 30% of its offerings by the end of the year [72]. - Pang Donglai's product categories include essential goods, premium brands, global selections, and self-branded items, catering to diverse consumer needs [74][75][76][77]. - The company's focus on quality and consumer experience positions it well for continued growth, even in challenging economic conditions [71][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Laopu Gold into a luxury brand, highlighting its unique pricing strategy and market positioning, which has led to significant growth in revenue and valuation despite the challenges faced by the luxury goods market. Group 1: Company Overview - Laopu Gold sought to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2020 but faced scrutiny over its high gross margin of nearly 40%, which led to its decision to pursue a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange instead [3]. - In November 2023, Laopu Gold's founder initiated a Pre-IPO round, with the company's revenue from its Beijing SKP store surpassing 100 million yuan, achieving a store efficiency comparable to luxury brands [4]. - After its listing, Laopu Gold's market capitalization increased tenfold, challenging the traditional valuation perceptions in the Hong Kong market [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Positioning - The jewelry industry, particularly gold, is characterized by low profit margins, with major players like Lao Fengxiang and China Gold consistently reporting gross margins below 10% [6]. - Laopu Gold has managed to maintain a gross margin above 40% and a net margin that reached 17% last year, significantly outperforming its competitors [8]. - The company has adopted a luxury brand strategy, including high-end store locations and a unique customer loyalty program, which has contributed to its elevated market perception [11]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - Laopu Gold has successfully implemented a pricing strategy that allows it to maintain high prices for its products, with average prices nearly doubling from 2017 to 2022 [16]. - The company has increased its prices multiple times in recent years, aligning its pricing strategy with the rising gold prices, which has contributed to its revenue growth [19]. - Despite the luxury market's downturn, Laopu Gold has expanded its store presence, indicating a strong market positioning and willingness to capitalize on opportunities during challenging times [22][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The founder of Laopu Gold has expressed ambitions for the company to achieve an average store efficiency exceeding 1 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [25]. - The luxury market's dynamics suggest that Laopu Gold's expansion may continue to thrive even as traditional luxury brands face challenges, as high-end malls may lower their selection criteria during downturns [23]. - The company's luxury positioning will need to withstand fluctuations in gold prices to validate its market strategy fully [32].

LVMH集团：相信集团仍然拥有某些定价权。 ...