Core Viewpoint - The home appliance sector is expected to underperform the CSI 300 index in the first half of 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in the trade-in policy, and high base expectations for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the home appliance sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [2]. - Key stocks showing positive performance include motorcycle and black appliance companies, such as Taotao Industry, Chunfeng Power, Ninebot, TCL Electronics, and others [2]. Group 2: White Appliance Sector - Demand differentiation between peak and off-peak seasons has increased, with a rapid recovery in Q2 2025 [3]. - China's dominance in global white appliance production remains intact, with short-term external shocks unlikely to alter long-term export growth trends [3]. - Adjustments in local subsidy policies aim to address previous imbalances and funding issues, with limited impact on annual sales expected [3]. - Emerging markets are showing stable economic growth, providing continuous incremental market opportunities for white appliance exports [3]. Group 3: Black Appliance Sector - Domestic and international demand remains robust, with significant structural upgrades towards large-size and MiniLED products [4]. - National subsidies are expected to continue driving domestic demand growth, with rapid increases in MiniLED penetration [4]. - Companies like Hisense and TCL are enhancing their overseas production capabilities, leading to expected growth in shipments and increased market share in the high-end segment [4]. Group 4: Cleaning Appliance Sector - The cleaning appliance category, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is benefiting significantly from national subsidies, with high growth expected in 2025 [5]. - The overseas market remains in a favorable cycle, with leading companies expanding their market share [5]. - The shift in consumer perception from optional to essential for cleaning appliances indicates substantial long-term growth potential in the domestic market [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2025 are primarily focused on the stability of the white appliance industry and the profit improvement potential in black appliances and robotic vacuum cleaners [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of the "National Subsidy" policy during the 618 shopping festival has raised concerns and questions among consumers, attributed to either "activity upgrades" or "exhaustion of subsidy funds" [1][2]. Summary by Sections National Subsidy Situation - Various regions have reported different statuses regarding the "National Subsidy" program, with some areas like Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Dalian, Jinan, and Guangzhou having exhausted their subsidy quotas [1][3]. - In Hubei, the subsidy will continue throughout the year until December 31, with a daily limit to ensure more consumers benefit from the program [3]. - Chongqing has completed the first phase of subsidies, with the second phase under negotiation [3]. - Jiangsu has implemented quota management for subsidies, effective from June 1, with plans to continue until the end of the year [3]. - In Sichuan, the subsidy policy has shifted to "quota management," with daily limits on the issuance of subsidy vouchers [3]. Regional Responses - Guangzhou's online subsidy funds have been depleted, with expectations for a new round of funding in Q3, albeit at a reduced amount [4]. - In Ningxia, some categories have run out of vouchers, while others still have subsidies available [4]. - Jilin has temporarily paused the subsidy program due to funding coordination issues, advising consumers to wait for further updates [4]. - Zhengzhou has announced that its current round of subsidy funds has been exhausted, pausing the issuance of new vouchers [5]. - Inner Mongolia has clarified that no official announcement regarding the suspension of subsidies has been made [5]. Consumer Participation and Impact - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that over 34 million consumers participated in the appliance replacement program from January to April, leading to sales exceeding 174.5 billion yuan [6]. - The program has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a total sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan attributed to the subsidy initiative [6]. - The temporary pauses in certain regions are viewed as short-term adjustments rather than a complete cessation of the subsidy program, with ample time remaining for consumers to benefit from the subsidies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy for home appliances has faced sudden interruptions during the "618" shopping festival, leading to widespread concerns and confusion among consumers and stakeholders [3][4]. Group 1: Current Status of National Subsidy - Various regions, including Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Dalian, Jinan, and Guangzhou, have exhausted their National Subsidy quotas [2]. - In Chongqing, the subsidy page indicates that the activity is "upgrading," preventing users from claiming or using the subsidies [2]. - Hubei's subsidy program is set to continue until December 31, 2025, with a daily limit on the number of subsidies to ensure broader consumer access [5]. Group 2: Regional Responses and Adjustments - Jiangsu has implemented a quota management system for subsidies, which will be in effect until the end of the year [7]. - In Sichuan, the subsidy policy has shifted to a "quota management" phase, with daily limits on the issuance of subsidy vouchers [8]. - Guangzhou's online subsidy funds have been depleted, with expectations for a new round of subsidies in the third quarter, albeit at a reduced amount [9]. Group 3: Consumer Participation and Impact - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that over 34 million consumers participated in the home appliance replacement program from January to April, resulting in sales exceeding 174.5 billion yuan [12]. - The National Subsidy program has not only provided financial benefits to consumers but has also stimulated overall consumption, suggesting that the likelihood of its termination is low [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension or adjustment of "national subsidies" in various regions, particularly during the ongoing "618" promotional event, has raised concerns about the impact on consumer spending and the home appliance market [1][6][9]. Group 1: Suspension of National Subsidies - Reports indicate that the "national subsidies" for home appliances have been suspended in several regions, including Chongqing and Jiangsu, due to the depletion of subsidy funds [6][9]. - In Chongqing, the subsidy for "old-for-new" home appliances has been confirmed as paused, with officials stating that the funds have been exhausted and a new policy is being drafted for the second phase of subsidies [9][12]. - Similar suspensions have been noted in Guangdong, where certain categories of subsidies are no longer available [12]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Market Reactions - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that the suspension of subsidies is likely a strategic move to support pricing during the "618" sales event, as the subsidies could disrupt the pricing structure [12]. - According to Huaxi Securities, over 150 billion yuan of subsidy funds have been consumed by the end of May, with expectations that consumption will rise to 500 billion yuan in June, leading to a total of 2.1 trillion yuan consumed in the first half of the year [13]. - The current adjustments in subsidy policies are viewed as a means to control the volume of subsidies rather than an end to the program, with further funding expected to be allocated [13].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The adjustment of national subsidy policies is aimed at controlling the volume rather than ending the subsidies, with subsequent funds being actively disbursed [2][10] - As of the end of May, over 150 billion yuan of national subsidy funds have been consumed, with an expected increase to 50 billion yuan in June, leading to a cumulative consumption of 210 billion yuan from January to June, accounting for 70% of the 300 billion yuan subsidy pool [1][9] - Various regions have begun to implement limits on subsidies or even pause them due to overspending, with Jiangsu province announcing a limit on both online and offline subsidies starting June 1 [1][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - National subsidy funds consumption has exceeded expectations, with many regions transitioning to limit management or pausing subsidies [1][9] - The government is smoothing the subsidy rhythm to reduce demand overdraft, especially with the peak sales season for air conditioners and major shopping events like the 618 promotion approaching [2][10] Company Key Announcements - Stone Technology plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance global brand recognition and competitiveness, optimize capital structure, and improve governance [3][12] Data Tracking Raw Material Data - As of June 6, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 1.8% compared to the previous week, while LME aluminum prices decreased by 0.55% [13] Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index increased by 3.34% compared to the previous week, with the USD to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 0.15% [23][24] Real Estate Data - From January to April 2025, the cumulative year-on-year changes in commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, and new housing starts were -3%, -17%, and -24% respectively [26]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 周专题：国补政策调整是控量而非结束，后续资金积极拨 付中 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 国补资金消耗超预期，多地转向限额限流甚至暂停。根据奥 维云网，2025 年以来消费市场回暖与密集促销节点共振，国 补资金消耗速度超预期。截至 5 月底，全国范围内已有超 1500 亿资金被消耗，进入 6 月，叠加 618 大促、端午促销等 购物节点，预计 6 月资金消耗将攀升至 500 亿元，推动 1- 6 月累计消耗规模达 2100 亿元，占 3000 亿国补资金池的 70%。多地因资金透支开始进入国补限额模式，甚至是暂停 国补。如消费大省江苏省商务厅市场运行和消费促进处工作 人员表示，从 6 月 1 日开始，江苏"国补"线上线下都将采 取限额管理，活动将持续到年底。 国补政策调整是控量而非结束，后续资金积极拨付中。根据 中国能源网，发改委于 1.6、4.28 各下发两笔 810 亿消费品 换新资金，剩余 1400 亿资金等待下发，考虑到地方配套 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the home appliance market in China this year is unprecedented, with many manufacturers facing severe operational challenges and some factories not producing normally [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" national subsidy policy is accelerating market reshuffling and leading to the elimination of weaker competitors [3]. - The home appliance industry is entering a mature phase, resulting in sluggish market demand and an inability for all manufacturers to sustain growth [3][4]. - Major players like Haier, Midea, and TCL have benefited from the subsidy policy, gaining market share and enhancing brand influence [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges for Manufacturers - Many smaller manufacturers are struggling, with some factories halting production since Q4 of last year and seeking alternative business opportunities [4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a "stronger getting stronger" scenario, where larger firms dominate and smaller firms face increasing pressure [4][5]. - Manufacturers lacking competitive strength are advised to focus on their core competencies and avoid unnecessary expansions or investments [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should remain calm and focused on their familiar market segments while exploring niche opportunities [5]. - There is a need for manufacturers to avoid price wars and seek new avenues for growth, potentially in overseas markets [5]. - Quick and efficient decision-making is crucial in the fast-changing market environment to capitalize on competitive opportunities [5].