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热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-26 08:08
Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The core viewpoint of Powell's speech indicates a shift to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the previous "neutral hawkish" position, highlighting a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][77] - Economic growth is slowing, with the actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 at 1.2%, half of that in 2024, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - The labor market shows a significant decline in job creation, with an average of only 35,000 jobs added per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening supply-demand balance [10][11] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework - Powell introduced a revised long-term monetary policy framework, reaffirming a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, marking a return to a more traditional approach [4][22][78] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Risks - Following Powell's speech, expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the anticipated number of cuts for 2025 increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 times [5][31][79] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [42][79] - The anticipated macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and a stabilizing economy, with potential risks of rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's value [53][79]
美联储政策框架剧变,9月降息只是前菜,真正大招在2026年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 03:43
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, which has led to a positive reaction in global capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a fundamental adjustment in its monetary policy framework, shifting from an "average inflation targeting" approach to a "flexible inflation targeting" system, which is expected to have significant implications for policy direction beyond September [3][5]. - The "average inflation targeting" framework considers the average inflation over a period, which could limit the space for rate cuts if past high inflation rates are included in calculations. In contrast, the "flexible inflation targeting" focuses on current inflation levels, allowing for rate cuts if present inflation shows significant decline [5][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Dynamics - Current inflation rates have decreased from a peak of 9% to around 3%, suggesting that the existing federal funds rate of 4.25-4.5% may have room for adjustment to better align with current inflation levels [7][9]. - The potential for a significant drop in inflation in 2026 due to high base effects could provide further justification for rate cuts, as the annual inflation rate may approach the 2% target with the new framework's focus on current data [9][11]. Group 3: Future Implications - The adjustment in the monetary policy framework is seen as paving the way for future easing measures, with the current environment being favorable for rate cuts, supported by both the new framework and anticipated improvements in inflation data [11].
杰克逊霍尔会议快评:鲍威尔转鸽,9月降息在即
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 13:51
Economic Outlook - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicates a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September[3] - Job growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the 168,000 per month expected for 2024, indicating weakening labor market resilience[3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, reflecting a balance in the labor market but with increasing downside risks to employment[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The PCE inflation rate is at 2.6% year-on-year, with core PCE at 2.9%, both higher than last year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[4] - Powell views the impact of tariffs as a temporary shock, suggesting limited long-term inflation effects[4] - The likelihood of a wage-price spiral is low due to a relatively weak labor market, which mitigates concerns about sustained inflation[4] Recession Risks - Recent data shows that the risk of recession in the U.S. has increased, with a 60% probability of recession over the next 12 months according to the New York Fed model[6] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a nine-month low and reflecting a downward trend in job growth since early 2025[8] Policy Implications - Powell's focus on employment risks over inflation concerns opens the door for potential rate cuts, as the need for monetary easing becomes more apparent[5] - The revised Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes flexibility in monetary policy, moving away from a strict average inflation targeting approach[18] - The Fed's commitment to price stability remains strong, with a notable decrease in tolerance for inflation above the 2% target[20]
杰克逊霍尔会议快评:鲍威尔转鸽,9 月降息在即
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 11:56
Economic Outlook - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicates a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September[3] - Job growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the 168,000 per month expected for 2024, indicating weakening labor market resilience[3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, reflecting a balance in the labor market but with increasing downside risks to employment[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The PCE inflation rate is at 2.6% year-on-year, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating inflation pressures but Powell views tariff impacts as a temporary shock[4] - Powell believes the likelihood of a wage-price spiral is low due to a weak labor market, which mitigates concerns about sustained inflation[4] Policy Implications - The focus on employment risks outweighs concerns about inflation, opening the door for potential rate cuts[5] - The Federal Reserve's internal division on rate cuts has increased, with some members supporting a dovish approach, enhancing the likelihood of a September rate cut[5] Economic Risks - The probability of recession in the next 12 months has risen to over 60%, reflecting market concerns about economic hard landing risks[6] - Recent employment data shows only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below the expected 104,000, indicating a downward trend in labor market strength[8] Long-term Policy Framework - The revision of the Federal Reserve's long-term goals emphasizes a flexible inflation targeting approach, moving away from the average inflation targeting strategy[18] - The updated framework allows for a balanced approach when employment and inflation targets conflict, providing the Fed with greater operational flexibility[21]
只谈降息,不谈未来:鲍威尔为何只给市场“安慰剂”?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-25 05:32
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 安联集团的首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安(Mohamed El-Erian)认为,在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上,美 联储主席鲍威尔回避了对美联储未来战略的深入反思,也未提及改革,将这些问题留给了继任者。这种 做法虽然避免了政治争议,但也错过了一个重要的战略反思机会。 杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上的主旨演讲,历来被视为全球最具影响力的央行领导人分享重要战略见解 的舞台,这些见解不仅涉及货币政策,也涵盖更广泛的经济与制度性议题。 然而,埃里安称,上周五鲍威尔并未选择走这条路。相反,美联储主席采取了回避风险的做法。 在这番言论下,股市、债市及其他资产价格全线上涨,交易员基本忽视了他随后补充的与通胀相关的限 定措辞。 然而,埃里安认为,鲍威尔并未花足够时间讨论经济的结构性演变,包括劳动力市场,而这正是今年研 讨会的主题。考虑到他在政策制定上高度依赖滞后的数据,这种回避风险的取向其实并不意外。 鲍威尔讲话的第二个重点,是对货币政策框架定期修订结果的介绍,或者用他的话说,即"我们如何追 求双重使命",实现物价稳定和最大就业。他将变化界定为"渐进演变",再次凸显出以往修订( ...
申万宏源:鲍威尔演讲导致“降息交易”明显升温 预期能否落地关键在于9月非农和通胀数据
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 23:01
Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference shifted the policy tone to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting [1][2] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 72% to 94% following Powell's remarks, indicating a significant market reaction [1][4] - The baseline scenario anticipates the unemployment rate rising to the 4.4-4.5% range, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year [1][4] Group 2 - Powell described the employment situation as a "fragile balance" with both supply and demand weakening, indicating an upward risk to employment downturns [2] - Inflation driven by tariffs is seen as clear but potentially "one-off," necessitating close monitoring of tariff impacts in the short term [2] - The Federal Reserve aims to balance the risks of stagflation, with a cautious approach to policy adjustments as the economic outlook evolves [2] Group 3 - The long-term monetary policy framework aims for a 2% inflation target alongside broad maximum employment goals, reflecting a shift from previous strategies [3] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the dual mandate of inflation and employment [3] Group 4 - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 have increased, with expectations of 5.3 cuts by the end of that year, reflecting a more dovish outlook [4] - The key to the September rate cut's realization lies in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data, rather than solely on Powell's statements [4] - The market's optimism regarding rate cuts in 2026 may be overly optimistic, with potential risks related to rising long-term Treasury yields and a reversal in the dollar's strength [4]
热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-08-24 16:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference indicates a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance, balancing the risks of stagflation with a focus on employment and inflation [2][3][9] - Powell's analysis highlights a "fragile balance" in the labor market, with both supply and demand weakening, leading to an increased risk of unemployment [3][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which Powell describes as having a clear but potentially "one-time" effect, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2 - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broader maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, acknowledging the current challenges of stagflation and the need to balance dual objectives of inflation and employment [4][25][30] - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have risen significantly, with the implied probability of a September rate cut increasing from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year rising from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential risks associated with the Fed's rate cut expectations, particularly focusing on the labor market's performance and upcoming economic data releases [5][42][43] - The baseline scenario anticipates an increase in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.5%, which would support the case for two rate cuts within the year [5][43][48] - The long-term outlook for 2026 suggests that the market may be overly optimistic regarding the number of expected rate cuts, with a need to monitor the upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and the risk of a reversal in the dollar's value [5][53][70]
九月或降息,但不是连续降息——2025年杰克逊霍尔年会点评
一瑜中的· 2025-08-24 16:05
Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve in August, where central bank leaders announce adjustments or signals regarding monetary policy frameworks, particularly the Federal Reserve Chairman [2][10][11] - In recent years, Powell has made significant announcements at this event, including the average inflation targeting in 2020, reaffirming the temporary inflation view in 2021, and discussing the transition to a rate-cutting cycle in 2024 [2][11] Group 2 - Powell's speech this year emphasized the increasing risks of employment downturn, indicating that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "strange balance" due to significant supply-demand slowdown, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment [3][13] - The likelihood of tariff price shocks evolving into sustained inflation seems unlikely, as current impacts are expected to be temporary and not lead to a "wage-price spiral" due to a less tight labor market [3][14] - Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 72% to 81.3% following his speech, indicating a shift in the Fed's assessment of inflation and employment risks [4][15][16] Group 3 - The adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects changes in the macroeconomic environment, moving from an average inflation targeting to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions [5][21][24] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement indicates a recognition that the neutral interest rate may now be higher than in the 2010s, suggesting a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [5][21] - The Fed's focus will now be on achieving a 2% inflation target in the medium term while retaining flexibility to respond to short-term economic developments [5][24]
9月降息的确定性与年内降息的变数
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-24 12:32
Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Jackson Hole meeting indicated a shift towards a dovish stance, lowering the threshold for a rate cut in September[1] - Powell highlighted a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 non-farm jobs added over the past three months, compared to 168,000 per month in 2024[1] - The current policy rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, above the neutral rate of 3%, suggesting a need for adjustment in monetary policy[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is only 1.2%, significantly lower than the 2.5% growth rate in 2024[1] - Powell noted that inflation risks from tariffs are likely to be one-time events rather than persistent, as the labor market is weak and long-term inflation expectations remain anchored[1] - The market currently prices in an expectation of 2.2 rate cuts for the year, which may be overly optimistic given the upcoming economic data releases[3] Group 3: Future Projections - In an optimistic scenario, the expectation is for rate cuts in September and December, with a total reduction of no more than 50 basis points for the year[5] - By May 2026, with a new Fed chair, the monetary policy is expected to become more accommodative, with projections of 4 to 6 rate cuts next year under different scenarios[5] - Following the September FOMC meeting, market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are likely to increase, impacting the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index[5]
热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-24 12:22
Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The policy tone has shifted to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][11] - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, which is half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which are clearly visible but may be "one-time" effects, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework Normalization - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Expectations and Risks of Fed Rate Cuts - The expectation for a rate cut in September has increased significantly, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [5][42][43] - The macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and economic stabilization, but the pricing of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic, warranting caution regarding long-term bond yields and the dollar's reversal risk [5][53][60]