Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the food and beverage sector, with soft drinks and snacks leading the recovery, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][9][10] - The analysis draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, highlighting that successful industries often address demand pain points and have low penetration rates [10][11] - Investment strategies focus on sectors with stabilizing ROA and potential valuation recovery, emphasizing price as the primary selection logic, while volume is secondary [11][12] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials - The construction sector is expected to experience a "spring rally" in 2026, supported by historical investment patterns and major national projects [13][14] - The report highlights three core investment themes: major national projects, high-dividend low-valuation state-owned enterprises, and private construction firms leveraging cash flow for new growth areas [14][15] - Infrastructure investment data shows a decline in both narrow and broad infrastructure investment, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector [15][16] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector continues to face pressure, with significant declines in new housing sales and investment, despite government efforts to promote high-quality development [18][20] - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes maintaining a balance in supply and demand, which is crucial for economic stability [20][22] - Specific data indicates a 31.4% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 26.1% drop in sales revenue, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market [20][21] Group 4: Electronics and Robotics - The report on Changying Precision emphasizes the introduction of employee stock ownership and stock option plans to enhance long-term development confidence and attract core talent [23][24] - The company is positioned as a leader in solder paste printing equipment, with a focus on high-end product demand driven by AI trends [33][34] - New product lines, including dispensing and packaging equipment, are expected to contribute to growth, with significant revenue increases anticipated [34][36] Group 5: Media Industry - The report on Giant Legend highlights the rapid growth of its IPs, particularly the "Zhou Classmate" and "Liu Genghong," which have gained substantial popularity on social media platforms [28][29] - The company is expanding its strategic investments to enhance collaboration with international stars and develop consumer products linked to its IPs [29][30] - Future growth is expected through a diversified approach that integrates emotional value into various products and experiences, positioning the company as a "disseminator of happiness" [30][31] Group 6: Mechanical and Building Materials - The report on Kaige Precision Machine outlines the company's leadership in solder paste printing equipment and its expansion into new product categories driven by AI [33][34] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its new product lines, including flexible automation equipment, which are crucial for enhancing manufacturing efficiency [34][36] - Profit forecasts indicate strong growth potential, with expected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [36]

Core Viewpoint - Different consumer sectors exhibit both differences and commonalities in recovery rhythms, with ROA being a leading indicator for operational recovery in consumer enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Recovery Rhythm Analysis - The recovery rhythm of various consumer sectors is influenced by industry supply and demand, as well as supply chain structures, with a focus on stock market competition as a mainstream phenomenon [2] - The stages of enterprise and channel adjustments are outlined, starting from oversupply to a new balance in supply and demand, with ROA serving as a key indicator throughout these stages [2] - Current recovery sequences indicate that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by food supply chains, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors where ROA stabilizes, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, with a preference for sectors that still show price or volume growth [3] - Price logic suggests that rising CPI may drive valuation recovery in traditional industries with high penetration rates, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, which are likely to attract incremental capital [3][4] - Recommended companies in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while in dairy, focus on Yili and Mengniu [3] Group 3: Volume Logic - In the context of cost-effective consumption, companies with high supply chain efficiency are expected to gain volume, with specific recommendations for companies in the food supply chain and soft drinks [4] - Industries with low penetration rates may withstand economic cycles, with recommendations for low-alcohol beverages and functional foods that can enhance brand premium through specialization [4] - Companies benefiting from overseas market expansion include Angel Yeast and Bailong Chuangyuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent trend of store closures by the discount retail brand "好特卖" (Hao Te Mai) in major cities, attributing this to issues such as high rental costs, lease expirations, and poor performance of certain stores [2][5][9]. Expansion and Franchise Model - In April 2023, 好特卖 transitioned to a franchise model, aiming to open around 600 new stores within the year, but the actual number of new openings has significantly decreased to just a few dozen [3][10]. - The company had over 500 stores across 32 cities at the time of the franchise launch, with plans to double its store count and achieve a gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding 4 billion yuan [8][10]. - The franchise investment for opening a store is approximately 800,000 to 900,000 yuan, including various fees and costs [10][12]. Store Closures and Reasons - The closures are primarily due to three reasons: high rental costs, lease expirations, and underperforming stores [9][10]. - Many of the closed stores were early direct-operated outlets that could not meet current operational needs, leading to a systematic optimization and closure process [9][10]. Market Position and Consumer Base - 好特卖 has positioned itself as a low-cost retail option, attracting young consumers with competitive pricing on various products [14]. - Data indicates that 65.5% of the consumers of discount food products are aged 19-35, highlighting the brand's appeal to younger demographics [14]. Quality Control Issues - The brand faces significant quality control challenges, with numerous complaints regarding expired or substandard products, leading to administrative penalties for mislabeling and selling expired goods [15][19]. - The proportion of near-expiry products has decreased from nearly 100% at the start to between 5% and 30% currently, as the company seeks to diversify its product offerings [19].

Core Insights - The company is closing stores in major cities such as Guangzhou, Changsha, Hangzhou, and Beijing due to issues related to rental costs, lease expirations, and poor performance of some locations [2][3][19] - Over the past year, the company's expansion has significantly slowed down, with plans to open around 600 new stores in 2023 being drastically reduced to only a few dozen [2][18] - Founded in 2020, the company has raised five rounds of funding from various investors and initially experienced rapid growth, becoming a prominent player in the discount retail sector [2][18] Store Closures - The closures are primarily attributed to three factors: high rental costs, lease expirations, and underperforming stores [19] - Many of the closed stores were early direct-operated locations that no longer met operational needs, prompting a systematic optimization process [19] - The company is also adjusting its strategy to focus on relocating stores to better positions and controlling costs [19] Franchise Model Shift - In April 2023, the company transitioned to a franchise model, which initially led to rapid growth, doubling the number of stores and achieving a gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding 4 billion yuan [6][18] - However, the expansion strategy has shifted significantly, with a focus now on supporting existing franchisees rather than aggressively recruiting new ones [22] - The average investment to open a franchise store is around 800,000 to 900,000 yuan, including various fees and costs [20] Sales Performance - The average daily sales per store can exceed 10,000 yuan, with some locations in Beijing achieving monthly sales of 440,000 yuan [22] - The company is now prioritizing the development of existing franchisees who typically own multiple stores, rather than pursuing new franchise opportunities [22] Quality Control Issues - The company has faced criticism regarding product quality, with numerous complaints about expired or substandard items [23][25] - It has been penalized multiple times for issues related to labeling and selling expired products, with fines ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 yuan [25] - The proportion of near-expiry products has decreased from nearly 100% at the start to between 5% and 30% currently, as the company diversifies its product offerings [25]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 16 日 策略深度报告 风格与趋势共振：新消费投资图景 消费具备轮动补涨配置机会，新消费兼具产业趋势与中期景气双重共振。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师: 王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：高天然 (8610)66229064 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 2025 年 Q2 新消费行情演绎的三重逻辑：1）基本面层面：中美贸易摩 擦下，提振内需政策预期强化；2）资金面层面：全球资金再配置，港 股估值修复，A 股和港股消费共振；3）风格轮动：科技与消费呈现"跷 跷板"效应。从宏观背景与风格轮动逻辑来看，当前市场环境与 2025 年 Q2 有一定相似之处，消费风格具备轮动补涨配置机会：1）基本面层 面：CPI 回暖趋势初现，必选消费市场表现与 CPI 同比有较高相关度， 盈利-估值对比，消费风格具有明确优势；2）资金 ...

开源证券发布研报称，古茗(01364)依托"区域精耕"与供应链高效协同，成为门店规模破万的行业头部 品牌。公司聚焦下沉市场，配送成本低于行业平均，赋能加盟体系稳健扩张。看好其在性价比赛道及全 国空白区域的增长潜力，预计未来全国开店空间超4万家，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 开源证券主要观点如下： 2010年古茗在浙江温岭开设首家奶茶店，2011年第一家合作店开业并开启连锁经营模式，2025H1古茗 门店破万家。考虑到公司在现制茶饮行业第二地位稳固，且在全国仍有17个省份尚未布局，全国开店空 间广阔，同时供应链及渠道管理优势明显，该行预计公司2025-2027年收入分别为120.4/143.2/167.5亿元 （同比+37.0%/18.9%/17.0%）；归母净利润分别为25.8/28.1/30.8亿元（同比+77.9%/9.0%/9.8%）；对应 EPS分别为1.08、1.18、1.30元，当前股价对应PE分别为20.5/18.8/17.1倍。 行业透视：性价比+渠道下沉为方向，现制饮品渗透率有望进一步提升 据灼识咨询，2024年中国现制饮品市场规模破6000亿元，预计2027年破万亿。其中现制饮品为最大品 类 ...

交银国际研究 行业剖析 2025 年 12 月 2 日 消费行业 2026 年展望：新常态下的消费新动能 2025 年消费小幅回暖，2026 年有望延续温和增长：2025 年以来，中国内 地消费市场延续温和复苏态势，1-10 月社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长 4.3%，显示整体需求处于恢复通道。然而，消费者信心指数虽逐季回升但 仍徘徊在荣枯线下，储蓄意愿维持高位、CPI 低位运行，均反映出消费者 偏谨慎的心态。因此我们看到，性价比趋势下多数细分行业仍面临需求偏 软与竞争加剧的双重压力；但另一方面，消费者更加重视情绪价值，同时 "以旧换新"等政策有效带动家电等品类，相关子行业成为年内消费主 线。展望2026年，消费有望延续温和增长的新常态，其核心特征是总体需 求增速偏缓，但消费理性化与需求层级的上移不断推动结构性分化，进而 成为细分市场的重要增长动力。市场将逐步构建新平衡，以挖掘消费者需 求为核心，更加重视经营效率提升；企业需精准洞察消费趋势，通过产 品、渠道、技术创新与供应链优化，把握新常态下的结构性机会。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector experienced a decline, with the Consumer ETF (159928) dropping by 0.49%, marking its third consecutive day of decline, and a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) saw a net subscription of 26 million units during the day, with a net inflow of 107 million yuan yesterday, accumulating over 390 million yuan in the past 20 days [1] - As of December 2, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeded 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] Group 2: Policy and Support Measures - Hunan province introduced 11 measures to boost consumption, emphasizing increased financial support for key consumption areas such as trade circulation and life services [3] - Hainan province issued a child-rearing subsidy plan, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for eligible families starting from January 1, 2025 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.89, which is at the 4.41% percentile over the past decade, indicating a high valuation attractiveness [5] - Seasonal trends suggest that Q4 often sees shifts in investment styles, with December being a period where low valuation stocks may gain favor [5] Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - According to Jiangyin International, consumer spending is expected to see a slight recovery in 2025, with moderate growth continuing into 2026, driven by structural changes in consumer demand [7] - The consumer confidence index is gradually improving but remains below the threshold, indicating cautious consumer sentiment [7] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector Insights - Huachuang Securities anticipates that traditional leading companies in the food and beverage sector will improve their market share, while new industry trends are emerging [8] - The food and beverage industry is expected to stabilize after a period of supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on traditional products like beer and dairy [9] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards new demands and business models, with opportunities in functional foods and health products [9]

南方财经11月19日电，中信证券食品饮料行业2026年投资策略研报称，2025年大众品板块需求弱势延 续，行业经历量价齐跌。2026年，对于大众品需求端持有谨慎乐观的观点，中信证券认为绝大部分大众 品行业需求经历了连续2年量价齐跌，同时渠道端库存基本完成挤水分而逐步恢复至良性健康水平，同 时结合2025年三季度大众品需求环比企稳趋势以及考虑到2026年是消费大年（2026年春节备货和2027年 春节备货绝大部分都将反映在2026年），看好大众品2026年行业终端需求量同比企稳。不过考虑到需求 依然偏弱、性价比消费趋势不改，2026年大众品终端价格同比或仍略有压力，但考虑到行业竞争程度边 际没有加剧，价格跌幅有望较2025年明显收窄。基于基本面触底判断，建议关注过去2~3年股价调整幅 度大、静态估值处于历史底部，有望受益内需触底带来业绩和估值双升的乳品板块和餐供板块。 ...

Core Insights - There is a noticeable trend of foreign dining brands selling their stakes in China, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3][20] - The Chinese dining market is characterized by its vast scale and a rapidly growing consumer base, with projected dining revenue exceeding 5.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Local brands are gaining a competitive edge due to a complete supply chain and cost advantages, allowing them to thrive in a price-sensitive market [5][7] Company Developments - Starbucks has entered a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to form a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% and Starbucks retaining 40% [1] - CPE Yuanfeng has partnered with Burger King to establish a joint venture, with CPE holding approximately 83% of the new entity [1] - Citic Capital has acquired a significant stake in McDonald's China, positioning it as the second-largest shareholder [1] Market Dynamics - The Chinese market's unique characteristics have led to a shift in strategies for foreign brands, as they adapt to local consumer preferences and competitive pressures [3][11] - Local brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi are rapidly expanding, with Luckin reporting a 47.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 12.36 billion yuan in Q2, while Starbucks' revenue grew by only 8% to approximately 56.26 billion yuan [8] - The average transaction price for Starbucks is significantly higher than that of local competitors, with Starbucks at 35.86 yuan compared to Luckin's 14.28 yuan and Kudi's 9.9 yuan [7] Strategic Shifts - Starbucks is increasingly decentralizing its operations in China, allowing local teams more autonomy, which has led to a 6% revenue increase in its latest fiscal quarter [12][13] - The decision to sell a majority stake in its Chinese operations is seen as a strategic move to secure a stable revenue source, with the total value of Starbucks' Chinese retail business estimated to exceed 13 billion USD [13][14] - Future plans for Starbucks include expanding its store count to 20,000 locations, which poses challenges in terms of pricing and operational adjustments [16][18]