研究所 宏观研究 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email : yuanye@cnpsec. com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email : yuanxiheng@cnpsec. com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性,中美谈判进展或促 风险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 "以旧换新"蓄动力,"过境免签"新亮点 投资要点 5月经济整体运行平稳。按照生产法测算,5月经济增速或在5.5% 左右. 持平前值:从供需两端来看,供需均边际改善,供需缺口小幅 收窄;从增长动能来看,需求改善主要是消费提振,投资和出口边际 放缓,符合我们前期判断,外部不确定性冲击市场微观主体决策,对 生产和投资产生收缩压力,且房地产市场仍处于深度调整期,房价尚 未止跌企稳,房地产投资跌幅并未改善,持续拖累投资增速。而供给 端边际改善主要源自服务生产边际回暖。 向后看,二季度短期宏观环境的主要矛盾是美国关税政策,冲击 市场微观主体投资决策,对生产和投资影响或持续存在,二季度经济 增速或小幅边际放缓,预计在 5.2%-5.3%左右;进入三季度美关税政 策影响或逐步减弱 ...

封面图 |《造房子的人》剧照 01 问： 冯叔，我在一线城市生活，手里有点闲钱，想做点投资，但不知道投什么，有朋友建议买房，他说，「虽然一些二三线城市的房价下跌了，但一线城市的 房子绝对保值增值」。我朋友说的对吗？您觉得2025年一线城市的房价还会涨吗，还能不能买？ 冯仑： 投资性买房，尤其是投资性质的买住宅，没必要执着于一线、二线，还是三线。我以前也讲过很多次，不论是几线城市，判断房价走势，都要根据多项指 标来进行综合判断。 这些指标包括：城市的人口增量、经济成长、城市规划和配套设施的建设，以及利率、汇率、资产的流动性等。 一、人口增长。 当一个城市的人口增速放缓，甚至是增量变成0，或者是负增长的时候，新房的需求就会很小。比如说，北京是一线城市，可是人口已经开始负增长，那 就不一定要在北京买房了。而其他一些城市，比如杭州，经济体量不算小，人口还在不断地增加，其部分区域的房价就有上升的空间。 二、经济成长。 同样是二线、三线城市，有的经济在发展，就业率在提高，个人收入、工资都在增加，那么房屋改善的需求就很大。大家都想要改善，会给新房市场提供 一些活力。而有一些二线、三线城市，比如若干能源城市，资源被挖得差不多 ...

REITs在2025年开局表现强劲，但近期股市的动荡使得最终走势难以预判。帕洛内提到："从历史经验 看，当经济下行风险从单纯的担忧转化为切实影响企业盈利时，市场对该领域的关注往往会更持续。" 然而，较高的利率可能对股价表现构成风险，其中10年期美国国债收益率(US10Y)的影响最为显著。 盈利预期 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通近日发布一份研究报告，房地产投资信托基金(REITs)在2025年的回报率 预计约为10%，但不同物业类型的增长潜力与机会将呈现分化。 摩根大通高级分析师兼美国房地产股票研究联席主管安东尼·帕洛内(Anthony Paolone)指出："我们认 为，4%的股息收益率、2%-7%的运营资金(funds from operations，FFO)增长，加上估值有一定扩张空 间，可能共同推动总回报率达到约10%。" 他补充称："若出现显著的经济放缓，REITs的盈利增长韧性可能优于市场多数板块。" 2025年迄今回报率超10%的重点REITs包括： 多元化医疗保健信托(Diversified Healthcare Trust, DHC.US.US)、派拉蒙集团(Paramount Group, ...

进入6月以来，螺纹钢市场逐步进入传统意义上的季节性需求淡季。回顾自2021年以来螺纹钢期货价格 在6月和7月的走势，可以发现需求淡季的行情未必平淡。2021年和2023年，螺纹钢期货价格在6月和7月 均大幅上涨，而在2022年和2024年则大幅下跌。今年6月和7月，螺纹钢期货价格怎么走？笔者从基本面 角度对目前的行情进行分析梳理，供投资者参考。 基建投资维持高位 短流程钢厂持续复产，使螺纹钢供应压力依然较大。目前螺纹钢周产量为219万吨，环比下降7万吨，同 比下降15万吨。从钢厂生产计划来看，6月钢厂检修减产力度依然较弱，螺纹钢供应大概率会维持在高 位水平。 去库速度放缓 随着下游需求淡季到来，螺纹钢需求开始下滑，去库速度随之放缓。上海钢联调研数据显示，5月螺纹 钢总库存为571万吨，环比下降130万吨，同比下降205万吨。随着下游需求转弱，预计6月螺纹钢去库速 度将进一步放缓，库存由降转增的概率显著增加。 综合来看，随着下游需求淡季到来，短期螺纹钢供需压力逐步增加。另一方面，随着一揽子宏观政策加 速落地，基建投资有望维持在较高水平，中期螺纹钢需求有望回升。在上述因素的共同作用之下，6月 螺纹钢期货价格预计先 ...

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 2025年06月09日 星期一 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 上周五现货黄金跌超 1%。白银延续涨势，现货银涨超 1.4%后小幅回落 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 国务院副总理何立峰将于 6 月 8 日至 13 日访问英国，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。；中国央行 | | | 连续第 7 个月增持黄金，环比增加 6 万盎司，增持速度继续放缓；日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤 | | | 泽亮正前往美国参加第五轮日美关税谈判。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 5 月非农新增 13.9 万，创 2 月以来新低，虽然高于市场预期，但前两个月数据合计大幅下修 9.5 万；失 | | | 业率 4.2%。工资意外增长，但劳动力总量却在萎缩；美国 4 月消费信贷增长翻倍至 179 亿美元，其中学生贷 | | | 款飙升至 1.8 万亿美元历史新高；2025 年 1-3 月全球整体房地产投资额同比增长 34%，对日本的房地产投资 | | | 额超过 2 万亿日元，创出季度历史新高，与上年同 ...

日经GO 东京的房地产投资额1~3月排在世界第一 原创 阅读全文 ...

Summary of American Healthcare REIT (AHR) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: American Healthcare REIT (AHR) - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Approximately $7 billion - **Portfolio**: About 300 clinical healthcare real estate properties - **Unique Structure**: 70% of the portfolio is managed under RIDEA (Real Estate Investment and Development in Elderly Affairs) rather than leased, allowing AHR to retain bottom line earnings [9][10][12] Industry Dynamics - **Demographic Trends**: The oldest baby boomers will turn 80 next year, leading to a significant increase in demand for senior housing over the next 15 years [11] - **Supply Constraints**: There has been a significant drop in new construction starts for assisted living since 2018, exacerbated by COVID-19, rising construction costs, and increasing interest rates [12] - **NOI Growth**: AHR has experienced double-digit same-store NOI growth over the past two years, with expectations for continued growth due to favorable supply-demand dynamics in the senior housing sector [12][36] Competitive Advantages - **Managed vs. Leased Exposure**: AHR's higher exposure to managed properties (70%) compared to peers (60% or lower) allows for greater earnings retention and growth potential [13][16] - **Operator Relationships**: AHR's primary operator, Trilogy, manages about 60% of AHR's NOI and has a strong track record in integrated senior health campuses [18][20] - **Regional Focus**: AHR emphasizes building relationships with regional operators to enhance performance and accountability [30][32] Financial Performance and Guidance - **2024 Performance**: Strong performance led to optimistic growth expectations for 2025, with guidance indicating Trilogy same-store NOI growth in the low teens (13-14%) and SHOP same-store NOI growth in the low twenties [36][38] - **Earnings Growth**: Revised guidance for 2025 indicates a midpoint of $1.61 per share, up from $1.41, reflecting significant earnings growth and a reduction in leverage from 9x to 4.5x [42][44] - **Acquisition Pipeline**: AHR has a dynamic acquisition pipeline of over $300 million, focusing on managed segments to improve portfolio quality and returns [45][46][52] Risks and Mitigations - **Medicaid and Medicare Concerns**: AHR acknowledges potential risks from changes in Medicaid but believes that Trilogy's higher quality mix (less than 20% of revenue from Medicaid) mitigates these risks [60][64] - **Rate Growth**: Trilogy's ability to optimize resident mix and focus on value-based care positions it well to continue achieving rate growth despite potential regulatory changes [66][68] Key Takeaways - **Strong Demand**: The aging population and limited new supply create a favorable environment for AHR's growth in senior housing [11][12] - **Operational Excellence**: AHR's focus on managed properties and strong operator relationships are key differentiators in the competitive landscape [10][30] - **Positive Financial Outlook**: Continued double-digit growth in NOI and a robust acquisition strategy support a positive financial outlook for AHR [36][38][45]

Summary of Ryman Hospitality Properties Conference Call Company Overview - Ryman Hospitality Properties operates primarily as a hospitality REIT, focusing on large group business and leisure transient business, distinguishing itself from other hotel companies that cater to business transient customers [6][7] - The company has a unique business model that allows for long-term relationships with large groups, providing stability and visibility in future bookings [7][8] - Ryman also operates the Opry Entertainment Group, which is involved in the country music space, owning iconic venues like the Grand Ole Opry and Ryman Auditorium [8][9] Core Business Insights - The company enters each year with approximately 50% occupancy booked, primarily from group business, and aims for a sustainable occupancy level of around 75% [11] - Recent trends indicate a stabilization in bookings after a dip due to economic concerns, with year-over-year bookings remaining flat [12][13] - Government-related business constitutes about 2% of the portfolio, with some softness noted, but overall, the company has managed to maintain stability in its bookings [15][16] Financial Performance and Cost Management - Operating expenses are expected to be 4% higher than the previous year, primarily due to labor costs, but the company has managed to stabilize these costs compared to post-COVID increases [25][26] - The company has successfully reduced labor hours per occupied room, maintaining wage margins despite rising wages due to inflation [27] Capital Allocation and Acquisitions - Ryman recently acquired the JW Marriott Desert Ridge, integrating it into its existing portfolio to leverage economies of scale and enhance customer relationships [29][30] - The company has identified a $1 billion capital investment opportunity over four years, focusing on renovations and expansions to improve meeting spaces and leisure amenities [39][41] Opry Entertainment Group (OEG) - OEG focuses on live entertainment in the country music sector, owning several venues and brands, and has recently expanded its portfolio with new concepts and partnerships [42][43] - The company sold a 30% interest in OEG to Ateros and NBCUniversal, valuing the business at approximately $1.4 billion, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [46][48] Future Outlook - Ryman plans to separate the OEG from the REIT structure to create a standalone public company, which is anticipated to trade at a higher multiple than the hotel business [52][54] - The company is exploring various options for the separation, with an IPO being the preferred method to maximize value and manage liquidity restrictions [55][56] Additional Considerations - The company is monitoring the performance of the Gaylord brand and other properties, including the Chula Vista development, for potential future acquisition opportunities [59]

Core Insights - New urban districts are becoming "trap" for investors, leading to significant financial losses for those who buy properties based on optimistic planning visions [1][7] Group 1: Market Conditions - In Ordos Kangbashi New District, the housing vacancy rate remains between 20%-30% as of 2025, despite some improvements [3] - The average price of second-hand homes in this area is only 7985 yuan per square meter, indicating a lack of market demand [4] - Tianjin Binhai New District has a commercial office vacancy rate of 42% in 2023, with a historical residential vacancy rate of 40%-50% since 2005 [4] - Chengdu Tianfu New District has a staggering office vacancy rate of 70%, with a projected increase in supply leading to further vacancy issues [6] Group 2: Economic Performance - Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District shows a GDP of 1502.5 billion yuan in 2024, but other districts in Zhengzhou are struggling with significant price drops and long listing periods [5] - Wuhan Yangtze New District has office vacancy rates of 37.8% for Grade A and 40.2% for Grade B buildings, indicating a lack of demand despite future growth projections [6] Group 3: Government Policies and Planning - Local governments are overly reliant on land finance, leading to excessive land sales without adequate industrial and population support [6] - The "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy has reduced investment demand, contributing to unsold properties in many new districts [6][7]

金十数据5月30日讯，一位知情人士表示，计划在越南建造的特朗普大厦预计投资约10亿美元，这座至 少60层的摩天大楼可能于明年开工。该建筑的计划仍处于初步阶段，它将是美国总统特朗普的家族企业 特朗普集团在越南审查的第二个重大项目。这个东南亚国家目前正在与华盛顿进行贸易谈判，以避免被 征收高达46%的关税。特朗普集团高级副总裁埃里克·特朗普上周访问了越南，对位于该国南部商业中 心胡志明市的这座大楼的选址进行了调查，并参加了越南北部一个高尔夫度假村的奠基仪式。消息人士 称，该高尔夫俱乐部将由特朗普集团负责运营，而其越南合作方、房地产公司 Kinhbac City将负责开发 建设，预计投资额为15亿美元。消息人士表示，特朗普大厦可能也会达成类似的安排，预计投资主要来 自当地合作伙伴。 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 消息人士：价值10亿美元的越南特朗普大厦将于明年开工 ...