钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 终端延续弱势 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 钢材周报 一、交易数据 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：1-11月份，全国房地产开发投资78591亿元， 同比下降15.9%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积656066 万平方米，同比下降9.6%。房屋新开工面积53457万平 方米，下降20.5%。房屋竣工面积39454万平方米，下降 18.0%。新建商品房销售面积78702万平方米，同比下降 7.8%。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量182万吨，环比增加3万吨，表需 209万吨，增加6万吨，厂库140万吨，减少1万吨， ...

他不愿意过那种朝九晚五的日子，也不甘于拿着固定的薪水度过一生。对于他来说，这样的生活就像一 池死水，平静而无趣。而蔡奎本性喜欢冒险，渴望挑战，他希望能有一片可以大展拳脚的天地。 时机 来了，蔡奎遇上了中国科技产业的快速发展。在一次深圳的出差中，他看到了属于自己的机会。深圳作 为改革开放的前沿城市，发展速度远远超过内地。蔡奎的眼光十分独到，他敏锐地抓住了计算机产业的 商机。 当时，深圳的电子元件和重庆之间存在着较大的价格差距。蔡奎利用这一差距，开始在深圳购 买电子元件，并将这些零部件带回内地进行组装，制造电脑出售。这一切不仅让蔡奎找到了商机，也积 累了人生的第一桶金。 然而，随着内地经济的追赶，这个行业逐渐不再那么赚钱。蔡奎认识到，单靠 差价的盈利方式并不可持续，未来这个行业的风险会越来越大。因此，他决定结束自己的公司，重新回 到重庆，开始新的创业之路。 **成家立业** 回到重庆后，蔡奎加入了一家航空公司，成为一名普通职 员。曾经在深圳小有成就的他，如今只能在职场上任人差遣。但他并没有放弃，而是在这里遇到了改变 他人生的女人——吴亚军。吴亚军的家境比蔡奎好很多，她的家族是做裁缝的，吴亚军自己也擅长做旗 袍。她 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown significant growth, with the S&P 500 up approximately 16% year-to-date and around 84% over the past five years, indicating a strong wealth creation engine for households [1] - The upcoming tax refund season is expected to be unprecedented, particularly benefiting workers who rely on tips and overtime, as a result of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" [4][3] - Investment strategies for potential cash windfalls include stock market investments, real estate, and high-yield savings accounts [16][11] Investment Opportunities - The S&P 500 index fund is recommended as a solid investment option for most individuals, providing exposure to 500 of America's largest companies and instant diversification [5][6] - Real estate is highlighted as a productive asset class, with the potential for consistent rental income and appreciation, especially during inflationary periods [10][11] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived and Mogul allow investors to enter the real estate market with minimal capital, offering fractional ownership in rental properties [12][14] Tax Refund Insights - The tax changes from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" are expected to result in substantial refunds for workers, particularly those in tip-based or overtime roles, with estimates suggesting refunds could be worth a couple of thousand dollars [2][3] - The timing of the tax changes means many individuals may not have accounted for these benefits in their previous tax filings, leading to a significant refund cycle [3][4] Savings Strategies - High-yield savings accounts (HYSAs) are recommended for individuals looking to make their cash work for them, offering significantly higher interest rates compared to traditional savings accounts [16][17] - Online banks can provide competitive returns, sometimes up to ten times the national average interest rate on savings accounts [17]

南向资金连续增持贝壳态势尤为显著。数据显示，近10个交易日中，贝壳有10天获南向资金净增持；近 20个交易日中，贝壳有18天获净增持，增持意愿强烈。南向资金常被市场视为"聪明钱"，用真金白银押 注贝壳，持股持续上升，反映了对贝壳长期投资价值与流动性的认可，传递出明确的"买入并持有"信 号。 港股通外，今年以来，贝壳持续获国际及国内大型金融机构增持。其中，国内私募基金巨头高毅资产在 今年第三季度增持贝壳约66万股美股，占其持仓约2.15%，为其美股十大重仓股之一。首域盈信在第三 季度内增持贝壳约156.6万股美股；淡马锡同期也增持了93万股美股。 从经营层面来看，贝壳最新三季度财报显示，净收入实现同比增长，家装和租赁业务均实现业务城市层 面扣除总部费用前的盈利。贝壳发布2025年第三季度财报后，包括高盛、摩根士丹利、美银证券在内的 多家国际大行均重申"买入"或"增持"评级。尽管短期内房地产市场逆风导致部分机构微调目标价，但机 构共识明确：作为行业龙头，贝壳通过新业务拓展与精细化管理所构筑的韧性，使其依然是捕捉中国房 地产领域长期价值的核心标的。 本报讯 （记者陈潇） 截至12月18日，南向资金持有贝壳控股有限公 ...

世邦魏理仕（CBRE）发布的《2026年日本房地产市场展望报告》显示，日本经济温和增长、金融环境宽松支撑房地产市场持续活跃，投资规模保持高位， 各细分业态供需格局分化，租金整体呈上涨态势。 宏观经济层面，日本经济将持续温和增长，2024年第二季度至2025年第二季度连续五个季度实现正增长，私人消费与企业资本投资成为主要支撑。货币政策 方面，日本央行预计在2025年底至2026年底再加息2-3次，长期利率将逐步上行，但金融机构对房地产 lending 仍保持宽松态度，2025年9月末房地产贷款余 额已达141万亿日元，为市场提供充足流动性。 投资市场表现强劲，2025年全年投资规模预计突破6万亿日元，创历史新高，2026年有望维持接近该水平的活跃度。海外投资者积极布局，2025年前三季度 收购额达1.87万亿日元，是2024年同期的2.4倍；国内投资者中，J-REITs通过资产组合调整优化配置，非REIT机构投资者与企业交易同样活跃。办公楼是投 资核心领域，东京Garden Terrace Kioicho（4000亿日元）等大额交易推动板块投资同比增长80%，住宅、物流、零售等业态也有不同程度增长。 细分业态中 ...

希腊Moneyreview网站12月7日报道，今年房地产在希腊整体外国直接投资中的占比显著下降。根据希 腊银行国际收支数据，今年上半年外国对希腊经济的总投资额为28亿欧元，其中9.383亿欧元（占 33.4%）与房地产投资相关。尽管占比不低，但比较上年同期下降几乎一半（-42.2%）。据房地产市场 消息人士透露，外国资本对希腊房地产的投资已开始从投机型向长期型转变，度假屋和豪华房产的需求 显著增加。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The industry continues to face downward pressure, but there is a reduction in expenditure pressure, which is expected to persist and provide a favorable financial environment for the macro economy [2] - The overall industry operation is still under downward pressure, with significant declines in development investment and sales figures [53] - The report anticipates that the real estate sector will not contribute to systemic financial risks in 2026, maintaining a favorable environment [53] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights that the real estate investment for January to November 2025 has decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable decline in sales and new construction areas [7][11] - The anticipated trends for 2026 include continued financial risk reduction and persistent economic pressure, with a focus on financial risks in the real estate sector [53] Industry Data - For January to November 2025, the cumulative development investment reached 78,591 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [10] - The sales area of commercial housing for the same period was 787 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.8% [23] - The report notes that the total funds available for real estate development decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, indicating a tightening financial environment [39] Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. Development: Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Overseas Development 2. Commercial and Residential: Longfor Group 3. Property Management: Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc Life 4. Cultural Tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [53]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first ten months [2] - The central economic work conference proposed measures to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," including increasing central budget investment and optimizing local government special bond management [4] Group 2: Real Estate Investment - National real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [4] - New commercial housing sales area was 78,702 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year; sales amount was 75,130 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [5] - The decline in real estate investment is attributed to weakened support measures and cash flow issues in the market, leading to a lack of confidence among developers [5][6] Group 3: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% year-on-year from January to November, but the growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [6] - The decline in manufacturing investment growth is influenced by external economic conditions, constraints on overcapacity industries, and reduced impact from last year's large-scale equipment updates [6] - The current downturn is seen as a necessary adjustment after years of rapid growth in manufacturing investment, with expectations of negative growth in December [6]

（原标题：中泰证券戴志锋：未来城市更新将更加注重功能完善和品质提升） 人民财讯12月14日电，12月14日，中泰证券研究所所长、金融研究大组组长戴志锋表示，今年的中央经 济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年首要任务，充分体现了扩大内需在经济工作 全局中的重要地位。投资端"推动投资止跌回稳"的表述直指当前痛点。今年以来固定资产投资增速持续 放缓，特别是房地产投资和民间投资压力较大。"高质量推进城市更新"被单独提出，其深意在于：城市 更新不同于传统的大拆大建，更加注重功能完善和品质提升，投资周期长、带动效应强，能够成为对冲 房地产投资下行的重要抓手。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue and profit, with a 60.64% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 46.60% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][6] - The company maintains a healthy financial structure with a net debt ratio of 7.03% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.14 times, indicating low short-term repayment pressure [6] - The company is focused on land acquisition in Zhejiang, particularly in Hangzhou, where it holds a leading position [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 70,443 million yuan, with a projected decline to 69,152 million yuan in 2024A, followed by a slight recovery to 69,912 million yuan in 2025E [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2,529 million yuan in 2023A to 2,879 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [3] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 12.4%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Market Position - The company's total sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 786.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.87% year-on-year, ranking it 10th nationally [6] - The company has increased its land acquisition efforts, with new land value reaching 580.1 billion yuan, a 31.16% increase year-on-year [6] Financial Health - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 57.8%, with "three red lines" indicators consistently in the green zone [6] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.1%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [6] Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2,879 million yuan, 3,142 million yuan, and 3,425 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.93, 1.01, and 1.10 yuan [3][6]