Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing an unexpected surge in demand during the traditionally slow first quarter due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, prompting overseas buyers to place orders in advance to avoid higher costs after April 2026 [1] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, marking a shift to a "no rebate subsidy" phase for the industry [1] - The cancellation of the rebate is expected to increase export costs, leading to a rush in orders from overseas buyers before the policy takes effect, thus boosting first-quarter export demand [1] - Major photovoltaic companies, such as Dongfang Risen and Trina Solar, saw significant stock price increases, with Dongfang Risen hitting a new high since September 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Price Trends - The photovoltaic supply chain is showing a divergence, with upstream silicon material companies experiencing relatively low performance, while leading component manufacturers are raising prices to capitalize on the export window [2] - The price increase in components is expected to enhance profit margins for component manufacturers in the first quarter, while silicon material prices will depend on the self-regulation of the industry and profit margins [2] - There is a concern that the rush for exports may preemptively exhaust overseas demand for the second quarter, potentially leading to a sharp decline in demand similar to previous years [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Demand Stability - Analysts suggest that after the export rush, there may be a significant drop in demand, which could put pressure on silicon prices again [3] - The stability of the photovoltaic industry's supply and demand dynamics will rely heavily on self-regulation within the industry and the actual trends in production control [3] - The domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to grow steadily under policy guidance, with leading companies that have integrated overseas production and sales likely to be less affected by the cancellation of the rebate [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the economic "temperature difference" at the end of 2025, highlighting a divergence between macro indicators like PMI and micro indicators such as production and consumption [2][4][10] - At the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation showed a decline, while manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December [2][10] - Consumer high-frequency indicators continued to decline at the end of 2025, yet the overall consumer goods industry PMI rose to 50.4%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors like textiles and apparel [20][10] Group 2 - Investment indicators such as asphalt operation rates and cement shipment rates did not show significant improvement, but the construction industry PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8% at the end of 2025 [3][32][10] - The article identifies three reasons for the divergence in macro and micro indicators: the shift in economic growth momentum, the risk of demand overextension in consumer sectors, and the impact of previous debt issues on investment rhythms [4][5][44][67] Group 3 - The article anticipates that service consumption and new infrastructure investments will contribute more than expected to the economy at the beginning of 2026, despite pressures on commodity consumption due to the tapering of "old-for-new" policies [6][78][82] - The easing of the debt impact on investment is expected to lead to a rebound in broad infrastructure and service sector investments in early 2026, with a focus on digital infrastructure and carbon reduction investments [82][86] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 is projected to extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures [105][110]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The main contract for lithium carbonate surged by 9%, reaching a limit up at 156,060 yuan/ton due to favorable policy news [1][5] - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic and battery products, which will increase costs and potentially impact profits across the supply chain [1][5] - There is a strong expectation for overseas orders to surge in the short term, particularly from January to March, despite the seasonal downturn in demand [1][5] Group 2: Precious Metals Futures - Precious metals, particularly silver, saw significant gains with silver rising by 14.42% and gold increasing by 2.57%, both reaching new highs [2][6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other nations, are driving investor interest in gold, making it a focal point for market activity [2][6] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, supported by global monetary expansion and a trend towards de-dollarization, which will likely keep precious metals on an upward trajectory [2][6] Group 3: Container Shipping European Route Futures - The European shipping market is experiencing a resurgence in bullish sentiment, with the main EC2604 contract rising by 11.3% to 1,280.8 points [3][7] - The SCFIS European route index increased by 8.94% to 1,956.39 points, indicating upward pressure on futures prices from the spot market [4][8] - The upcoming export VAT policy change is expected to influence shipping demand, with companies rushing to fulfill orders before the policy takes effect [4][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) may show a strong - biased oscillation. For the 02 long positions and 04 short positions, consider reducing positions as appropriate [1]. - The freight rate of the European line in the 3 - 4 month off - season is in a weak supply - demand balance, and the marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of some commodities in the first quarter cannot reverse this trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of EC2602 was 1,729.8, up 0.30%, with a trading volume of 11,327 and an open interest of 17,703, a decrease of 2,305. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,144.5, down 2.13%, with a trading volume of 13,495 and an open interest of 29,021, an increase of 1,247 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route was $1,719/TEU, up 1.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route was $2,218/FEU, up 1.4% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight**: The spot freight rates of different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $2,636 to $3,293 and for 20'GP from $1,533 to $2,110 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.87, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.99 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - **January Capacity**: There were no pending voyages in January. The average weekly capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. There were some changes in shipping schedules during the week [11]. - **February Capacity**: The latest February shipping schedule included 11 blank sailings, with no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% [11]. - **March Capacity**: There were 9 blank sailings and 2 pending voyages in March. The average weekly capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Chinese New Year blank sailings were mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [11]. - **Spring Festival Capacity Comparison**: The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 was 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The post - festival capacity growth rate was significantly higher [12]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - **General Demand**: In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak usually appears around mid - January and then declines [13]. - **New Demand Variable**: The Ministry of Finance's export tax - rebate policy changes may lead to a rush - shipping season for some products in the first quarter of 2026, which has a marginal positive impact on the demand from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April. The specific impact on contracts depends on the shipping rhythm [13]. 3.4 Freight Rate Analysis - **Current Spot Freight Rates**: The FAK average of the 2nd - 3rd week was in the range of $2,700 - $2,760/FEU. Different alliances and carriers had different freight rate levels [14]. - **Contract Valuation and Strategy** - **2602 Contract**: A neutral - to - pessimistic freight rate scenario was assumed, and under this scenario, the 2602 contract valuation may fall in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points [15]. - **2604 Contract**: Although there was marginal benefit from the rush - shipping in the first quarter, it could not reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the 3 - 4 month off - season [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing both 02 long positions and 04 short positions to avoid uncertainty. For the 2610 contract, maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the settlement price of the 2510 contract at 1,161 points [15][16]. 3.5 Geopolitical Situation The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not significantly cooled down [12].

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 4.46% to HKD 55 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increasing by 3.45% to HKD 58.45 [1] - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit the upper limit, increasing by 9% to CNY 156,060 per ton [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] Group 2 - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April due to the upcoming changes in export tax policy, which could positively impact short-term demand for lithium carbonate [1] - The anticipated "rush to export" before the tax rebate cancellation may sustain demand for lithium carbonate until 2027, providing short-term price support [1] - However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially leading to increased costs that could suppress long-term demand [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for both industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are "oscillation" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, will lead to a significant rush of exports in Q1 2026, but it is a negative factor for demand in the whole - year perspective. After the rush - export period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [2][11][12] - In the short term, leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises will maintain price - holding strategies, but the possibility of price - testing at lower prices by second - and third - tier enterprises increases. Polycrystalline silicon prices may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2][16] - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. In the short term, industrial silicon may operate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [3][18][19] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 145 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,715 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polycrystalline silicon decreased by 6,620 yuan/ton week - on - week to 51,300 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials from the Silicon Industry Association increased by 5,300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 59,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polycrystalline Silicon - There were many industry news this week, including rumors of production cuts by leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises, the market supervision department's interview with the photovoltaic industry association and leading enterprises, and the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [11] - It is expected that there will be a significant rush of exports of photovoltaic products in Q1 2026. The expected domestic component production in Q1 2026 is revised upwards to 125GW, a 31% increase from the previous expectation. After April 2026, the annual component export volume is expected to decline by 5 - 10%, and the annual component production will be reduced to about 468GW, a 3% decrease from the previous expectation [12] - During the rush - export window period, downstream sectors have the hope of price increases, but in the whole - year view, the profit pressure on downstream enterprises is greater. After the window period, the cancellation of the export tax rebate will intensify the losses of component enterprises [13] - During the rush - export window period, polycrystalline silicon prices still depend on the price alliance. After the window period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [14] 3. Industrial Silicon - This week, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 1, Shaanxi increased by 1, and Qinghai decreased by 1. Yunnan's operation rate remained low. An integrated large - scale enterprise may cut industrial silicon production in Sichuan to zero by the end of the month [17] - The improvement of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. The reduction of polycrystalline silicon production is expected to match that of industrial silicon, having no marginal impact on the supply - demand of industrial silicon. The organic silicon price is expected to rise further, and the supply side may adjust due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be in a tight balance from January to February, and there will be significant inventory accumulation after March if the Xinjiang large - scale enterprise resumes production [18] 4. Hot News Compilation - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [20] - A leading enterprise raised the silicon wafer quotation, but no other silicon wafer enterprises followed, and downstream battery enterprises did not accept the price increase. Market sentiment is becoming more wait - and - see [20] 5. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Industrial Chain 5.1 Industrial Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's oxygen - blown 553 spot price, 99 - silicon spot price, national and regional industrial silicon weekly output, and social and factory inventories [22][24][28] 5.2 Organic Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's DMC spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [30][31] 5.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's polycrystalline silicon spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][39] 5.4 Silicon Wafers - Relevant data charts include China's silicon wafer spot price, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output, as well as profit calculations [41][43][45] 5.5 Battery Cells - Relevant data charts include China's battery cell spot price, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [46][47][49] 5.6 Components - Relevant data charts include China's component spot price, component finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [53][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the industry entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. Although the fundamentals weakened in the short - term, the expected "rush to export" might boost the off - season demand, and the lithium price was expected to remain in a state where it was easier to rise than to fall [1][4] - Unilaterally, it was expected to fluctuate at a high level with the center of gravity moving up, and the price range of the futures main contract was estimated to be between 135,000 and 155,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, a long - short spread strategy was recommended as the "rush to export" demand might drive the near - term contracts stronger. For hedging, due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises were advised to use options tools to hedge at appropriate times [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts continued the upward trend after the holiday. The 2601 contract closed at 138,700 yuan/ton, up 18,700 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2605 contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton, up 21,840 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 21,500 yuan/ton week - on - week to 140,000 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2601 contract) rose 2,800 yuan/ton to + 1,300 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quotation was - 1,510 yuan/ton, strengthening 230 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2601 and 2605 contracts was - 4,720 yuan/ton, weakening 3,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 2. Supply Side of Lithium Salt Upstream - Lithium Ore - Policy: From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - refund rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax - refund for battery products will be cancelled [2] - Supply: The domestic weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,535 tons, a slight increase of 115 tons from last week. The output in January was expected to remain at a high level. In the first week of 2026, the shipment of Australian lithium ore was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons month - on - month, and the shipment of Chilean lithium salt was 8,640 tons, a decrease of 1,228 tons month - on - month [2] 3. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Mid - stream - Lithium Salt Products - Demand: The production schedule of cathode materials in January was adjusted upwards, but there were still uncertainties. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials was basically flat month - on - month. The price of battery cells increased, but the increase was still less than that of upstream raw materials, and the inhibitory effect on terminal demand needed further transmission. The domestic demand for new energy vehicles remained weak. In December, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.563 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The demand for energy storage continued to grow at a high rate. In December, the winning bid volume was 59.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 87.7%. At the beginning of January, many enterprises launched centralized procurement tenders [2] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased again. The industry inventory was 109,942 tons, an increase of 337 tons from last week. The upstream and mid - stream accumulated inventory, while the downstream continued to destock. The speed of new futures warehouse receipts increased this week, with 5,079 new registrations and a total of 25,360 lots [3] 4. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Downstream - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report presents multiple charts related to the downstream consumption side, including the monthly output and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of lithium batteries, as well as the import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided in the text [29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After the A - share market opened in 2026, precious metals strengthened under geopolitical disturbances. There are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market showed an overall upward trend on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. The report suggests focusing on commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals and also mentions investment strategies for commodities and stock index futures [2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing. The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" measures. Future price recovery depends on supply - side policies. After important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings. The geopolitical situation tightened during the New Year's Day holiday, which may drive up commodity prices. On January 5, the market trended upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index up nearly 3% [2] - There is a divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has declined since October, but China's exports and new orders are still positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI were better than expected, but new export orders in the service industry contracted. The US economic data was generally weak [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metal sector remains unresolved, and aluminum is a preferred choice within the sector. In the energy sector, the focus is on future crude oil supply growth after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, monitor weather and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips, but be aware that short - term silver risks have increased [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips for stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5] To - do News - The market trended upward on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, the ChiNext Index up nearly 3%, and the CSI A500 Index up over 2%. More than 4100 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.57 trillion. China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, remaining in the expansion range but with new export orders contracting. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and Trump said he would "manage" Venezuela and involve in the oil industry. OPEC+ will maintain the oil supply unchanged in the first quarter. Some commodity futures prices rose significantly, while others declined [6]

Group 1: PMI Trends - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a return to expansion[8] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, a significant increase of 2.4 percentage points from November, marking a new high for 2025[8] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8% in December from 49.6% in November, driven by favorable weather and policy support[8] Group 2: Export Dynamics - New export orders PMI rose from 47.6% to 49% in December, suggesting potential recovery in export demand[8] - Optimistic scenario indicates a rebound in U.S. consumer goods import demand, supported by textile and electronic exports[8] - Pessimistic scenario highlights potential "export rush" due to Mexico's tariff adjustments and EU carbon tariffs, impacting specific sectors[4] Group 3: Structural Disparities - Large enterprises showed significant PMI recovery, while small enterprises experienced a decline, indicating a mismatch in export capabilities[4] - Supply chain congestion in consumer goods sectors, particularly textiles and electronics, reflects urgent production demands[4] - The disparity in PMI recovery across different enterprise sizes suggests varying capacities for "export rush" activities[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].