Report Overview - **Title**: Will the bond market price in the slowdown of "front-loading exports" later? —— An analysis of August's imports and exports [1][4] - **Date**: September 10, 2025 [5] - **Analysts**: Zenghui Zhao, Weijian Ma [3] Key Points Overall Import and Export Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports slowed down overall, lower than expected, while the trade surplus showed some resilience and remained at a relatively high level. In US dollar terms, the year-on-year growth rate of the total import and export value dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 3.1% compared with the previous month, reaching $541.3 billion in August. The trade surplus increased by $4.1 billion month-on-month to $102.3 billion. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of export and import values both dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, which were 1.5 and 2.0 percentage points lower than the Wind consensus expectations [4]. - On a month-on-month basis, exports basically met seasonal expectations, while imports were significantly weaker than the seasonal level. In August, the month-on-month growth rate of exports rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 0.1%, at the median level of the same period in previous years, while the month-on-month growth rate of imports dropped by 8 percentage points to -1.8% [4]. Export Analysis - In August, exports generally remained stable but slowed down significantly compared with June - July. This was partly due to the high base effect of the previous year, with a two-year compound year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%. On the other hand, "front-loading exports" to the US declined significantly, with the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the US continuing to fall, at -11.8% month-on-month and -33.1% year-on-year [6]. - Among key export products, mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products supported exports, while agricultural products declined. Products with high export growth rates were concentrated in high-end machinery and equipment such as ships, automobiles, liquid crystal panels, and medical devices, as well as some chemical materials such as fertilizers and rare earths. Products with low and falling export growth rates mainly included traditional export products to the US, such as labor-intensive products like toys, household appliances, and clothing and bags [6]. - In terms of export destinations, ASEAN, the EU, and Hong Kong, China had a strong driving effect on exports, while exports to the US and Latin America were significantly weaker than the seasonal average. In August, the driving rates of ASEAN, the EU, and Hong Kong, China on exports increased by 1.2, 0.2, and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month to 4.0%, 1.7%, and 1.5%. On a month-on-month basis, the month-on-month growth rates of exports to the US, Latin America, and ASEAN were -11.8%, -0.03%, and 4.6% respectively, with changes of -5.7, -7.9, and +10.8 percentage points compared with the previous month [6]. Import Analysis - In August, imports weakened, with the growth rates of major imported products generally declining. The year-on-year growth rates of high-tech products, mechanical and electrical products, and agricultural products dropped by 4, 2, and 8 percentage points to 3%, 1%, and -3% respectively. The imports of bulk commodities were generally negative year-on-year, with significant declines in the imports of grain, crude oil and refined oil, and copper ore, and the decline rates of coal and iron ore narrowing. Among key mechanical and electrical products, the year-on-year growth rates of imports of automobiles, liquid crystal panels, and medical devices declined, while integrated circuits with a growth rate of 8.4% were the main support, with the quantity and price increasing by 2% and 6% year-on-year respectively [6]. Outlook and Bond Market Analysis - Overall, exports showed seasonal stability but still had signs of slowing down, while imports weakened significantly. Looking forward, the slowdown of "front-loading exports" at the expense of price may be due to the pre - emptive demand in the early stage, and exports to Latin America also weakened. The sustainability of "re - export trade" remains to be observed. At the end of August, the US cancelled the tariff exemption policy for small - value goods, expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff lists, and considering the possible implementation of chip and semiconductor tariffs in the future and its continuous promotion of the rare earth supply chain reconstruction plan, there is great uncertainty in future exports to the US [6]. - In the bond market, the current import and export data have limited impact, and the market is more pricing in the "see - saw" relationship between stocks and bonds and the expectations of the policy "combination punch". However, if the resilience of exports weakens further, it may have a new actual drag on the economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter, increasing the probability of non - linear changes in economic data. The bond market is likely to gradually return to pricing the expectations of economic fundamentals [6].

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the driving forces behind China's export growth, highlighting that exports to emerging economies are primarily driven by the export of production materials, while exports to non-US developed economies are mainly focused on consumer goods [2][3][4]. Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall exports showed a steady increase, with emerging economies being the core growth engine, contributing 4.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [9][134]. - Exports to non-US developed economies (EU, Japan, UK) provided moderate support, contributing 1.4 percentage points [9][134]. - The export of electronic devices, machinery, and certain consumer goods (toys, mobile phones, jewelry) performed well [9][134]. Group 2: Emerging Economies vs. Non-US Developed Economies - Exports to emerging economies increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 9.6%, with intermediate goods contributing 2.4 percentage points and capital goods 1.0 percentage points, while consumer goods detracted 3.7 percentage points from overall growth [21][28][135]. - For non-US developed economies, exports rose significantly by 5.5 percentage points to 6.7%, primarily driven by consumer goods, which contributed 2.7 percentage points [28][135]. Group 3: Understanding Export Growth Drivers - The article suggests that about 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is due to changes in external demand and market share [4][68][136]. - The increase in US imports, which surged over 30%, is seen as a potential overestimation of "import grabbing," as the structure of imports does not fully support this narrative [4][68][136]. - China's exports to non-US markets are not merely a result of "transshipment" but are more about supply chain collaboration, where ASEAN countries import production materials from China for further processing [4][46][62][136]. Group 4: Future Export Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a balance point with demand, indicating room for further increases [76][81]. - Short-term impacts from tariffs may affect exports to ASEAN, potentially dragging down overall export growth by 2 percentage points [90][91]. - Long-term prospects are bolstered by rising investment demand in emerging economies and the ongoing urbanization process, suggesting resilience in exports to these markets [94][107][120].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's export growth is primarily driven by exports to emerging economies, particularly in production materials, while exports to non-US developed economies are mainly in consumer goods [2][3][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's overall export increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with emerging economies contributing 4.7 percentage points to this growth [9][134] - The export performance to emerging economies is particularly strong in intermediate goods, which increased by 2.4 percentage points, while consumer goods negatively impacted the overall growth by 3.7 percentage points [21][135] Group 2 - The article discusses that the strong export performance may be partially attributed to "export grabbing," with estimates suggesting that 30% of the growth could be due to this phenomenon, while 70% is driven by external demand and market share changes [4][68] - The US's import surge, which appears to reflect "import grabbing," is primarily driven by specific goods from the EU and Switzerland, rather than a general increase across all categories [35][40] - China's exports to non-US markets have increased significantly, but this is not solely due to "transshipment" as the data shows a mismatch in export performance between China and ASEAN countries [46][62] Group 3 - Future export growth may continue to exceed expectations, as the US's import demand has not yet reached a balance point, indicating potential for further increases [76][81] - Short-term impacts on exports to emerging economies may arise from tariff implementations, but medium-term prospects remain positive due to rising investment demand and urbanization in these regions [90][94] - The expansion of the middle class in emerging markets is driving consumption upgrades, presenting new opportunities for high-value exports from China [120][124]

Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall export growth was steady, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%[3] - Emerging economies contributed 4.7 percentage points to the overall export growth, while non-US developed countries added 1.4 percentage points[15] - Exports to ASEAN and India were significant growth drivers, contributing 5.5 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points respectively[15] Group 2: Export Composition - Exports of intermediate goods drove the growth to emerging countries, contributing 2.4 percentage points, while capital goods added 1.0 percentage points[25] - Consumer goods negatively impacted the overall growth by 3.7 percentage points, with specific items like lithium batteries and machinery showing strong performance[25] - For non-US developed countries, consumer goods were the main growth factor, contributing 2.7 percentage points to the export increase[33] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Approximately 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is driven by external demand and market share changes[5] - The US's import surge of over 30% in the first half of 2025 may not reflect a true "import grabbing" scenario, as specific items like pharmaceuticals and gold were the main contributors[5] - China's exports to ASEAN are more about supply chain collaboration rather than pure transshipment, with significant intermediate goods exports[52] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a demand balance point, indicating room for further increases[7] - Short-term impacts from tariffs may affect exports to emerging markets, but medium-term growth is still anticipated due to rising investment demand in these regions[8] - Long-term trends suggest that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could benefit emerging markets and boost China's exports of production materials[8]

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with GDP growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 5.4%[2] - Industrial value added grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease from 6.8% in the previous month, influenced by extreme weather conditions[2] - The service sector maintained strong growth, with a production index increase of 5.8%[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, significantly down from 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June respectively[2] - Dining revenue growth remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak consumer spending in the restaurant sector[5] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to show diminishing returns, with retail growth in related sectors declining for two consecutive months[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was recorded at 1.6%, with real estate investment declining by 12.0%[21] - Infrastructure investment growth was only 3.2%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, with July's investment growth estimated at -5.07%[4] - Manufacturing investment saw a marginal decline of 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with equipment updates being the only positive contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales value dropping by 6.5%[39] - The average price of new homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, while second-hand home prices continued to fall, indicating unstable demand[39] - Real estate development investment totaled 53,580 billion yuan, with a monthly estimated decline of 17%[45] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, with local household unemployment increasing to 5.3%[58] - The demand for labor from external sources remained strong due to robust industrial production, but uncertainty in future employment needs led to higher local unemployment rates[64]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Recent fluctuations in treasury futures are driven by macroeconomic data and policy changes, with the Ministry of Finance announcing the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, leading to increased demand for older bonds [1] - Domestic economic resilience is evident, with a rising risk appetite in the A-share market and the central bank maintaining ample liquidity, while the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, causing upward momentum in treasury futures to weaken [1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In July 2025, China's total import and export volume reached $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with exports at $321.78 billion, up 7.2%, outperforming market expectations [2] - The increase in exports is attributed to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, leading to a "rush to export" effect, particularly with accelerated growth in exports to the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, and Belt and Road countries, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. [2] Group 3: Import Dynamics - Import growth continued to rebound in July, driven by rising prices of bulk commodities, with the CRB index increasing from 3.5% in June to 6.0% year-on-year, positively impacting both import volume and value [3] - The decline in imports from the U.S. narrowed from 15.5% to 10.3%, indicating a slight alleviation of the overall import pressure [3] Group 4: Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a slight decrease in the growth rate compared to June, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - Food prices showed a moderate improvement, with the year-on-year growth rate of fresh vegetables and pork prices contributing to a downward adjustment in CPI [4] Group 5: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, consistent with June, reflecting low construction industry sentiment and price pressures in export-oriented sectors due to international trade uncertainties [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, indicating that the foundation for a "bull market" in bonds remains solid, although upward momentum in the bond market may weaken due to economic resilience and commodity price recovery [5]

Group 1: Export Performance - July export growth was 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus expectation of 5.8%[5] - Exports to the US decreased by 21.7%, a decline that expanded by 5.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Exports to the EU increased by 9.2%, with exports to Germany rising significantly by 13.1%[6] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of 16.6%[6] - Exports to Latin America rebounded with a growth rate of 7.7%[6] - Exports to Canada accelerated with a growth rate of 6.7%[6] Group 3: Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive product exports saw a decline, with bag exports at -10.0% and clothing at -0.6%[7] - Mechanical and electrical products supported export growth, with a growth rate of 8.0%, contributing 4.8 percentage points to overall export growth[7] - High-tech product exports grew by 4.2%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to export growth[7] Group 4: Import Trends - July imports increased by 4.1%, a significant rise of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Energy product imports showed structural improvement, with copper ore imports up by 26.4%[8] - Agricultural product imports continued to recover, with a growth rate of 5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Group 5: Future Export Pressures - Export pressures are expected to increase due to potential impacts from new tariffs imposed by the US, ranging from 10% to 41%[10] - The "rush to export" effect may manifest more significantly in Q4, compounded by base pressure, leading to further downward pressure on export growth[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the acceleration of regional integration cooperation in response to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, with China's foreign trade data exceeding expectations amid these changes [2][3]. Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 7.3% and imports declining by 1.6% [2]. - In July, China's imports and exports grew by 6.7% and 8% respectively, with imports increasing by 4.8%, marking two consecutive months of growth [2]. Export Dynamics - The "export rush" phenomenon has intensified, driven by U.S. tariffs, leading to a 21.7% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in July, which negatively impacted overall export growth by 3.3 percentage points [3]. - Exports to major markets such as the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan saw growth rates of 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively in July, effectively offsetting the decline in U.S. exports [4]. Trade Diversification - China's trade diversification efforts have resulted in significant growth in exports to ASEAN, Africa, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, with respective increases of 9.4%, 17.2%, and 10.4% [4][5]. - The number of trading partners with over 50 billion dollars in trade volume increased to 61, reflecting a broadening of China's trade relationships [5]. Industry Trends - The overall trade structure shows a 2.1% increase in general trade, while processing trade grew by 6.3%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [7]. - High-value products such as machinery and high-tech goods continue to see robust growth, with electrical machinery exports increasing by 8.1% [8]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the export growth rate may decline in August due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with potential negative growth in the fourth quarter [8]. - The IMF has adjusted global economic growth forecasts slightly upward, but warns of ongoing uncertainties that could affect trade stability [10].

Export Data Insights - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[7] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[7] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained strong, while exports to the US saw a significant decline of 21.67%[7] Import Data Insights - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to 1.1% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2%[7] - Major commodities like copper and its products showed strong import growth, benefiting from the renewable energy sector[6] - Traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel continued to experience negative growth[6] Market Trends and Risks - The rebound in export growth is attributed to "export rush" ahead of tariff exemptions and fiscal expansion in Europe[7] - Future export growth may face challenges due to potential policy implementation delays and uncertainties in US-China trade relations[6] - The manufacturing PMIs for the US, Japan, and the Eurozone are below the growth threshold, indicating a cooling global economy[7]