1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cotton planting area in the US may remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to whether the planting area in the Southern Hemisphere will decrease [2][105]. - There is uncertainty about the cotton planting area under policy guidance. Although the market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the planting area in 2026, it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [2][111]. - The international economic and trade environment is gradually improving, and the phased easing of Sino - US trade relations reduces export tariffs, improving the export outlook for textiles. Coupled with the continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, it is beneficial for domestic cotton consumption [2][111]. - The cotton price was at a low level for a long time in the 2024/2025 season, and the current valuation is in a historically low range. As the supply - demand pattern improves and market sentiment recovers, valuation repair will be an important driving force for price increases [2][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **ICE Narrow - Range Fluctuation**: In 2025, the US cotton production decreased year - on - year. Due to continuous Sino - US tariff conflicts and China's small volume of signing US cotton contracts, the ICE US cotton continuous contract showed a fluctuating trend, mostly in the range of 65 - 68 cents. After the US government's record - breaking shutdown, the price center of ICE US cotton moved down since the third quarter, generally maintaining in the range of 63 - 66 cents [10]. - **ZCE First Declined and Then Rose, with Overall Low Valuation**: Supported by the downstream raw material replenishment and order - grabbing expectations, Zhengzhou cotton rose moderately at the beginning of the year. Affected by tariffs, it started to decline in late February, especially after the US announced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the beginning of April, Zhengzhou cotton tumbled. After the Geneva talks between China and the US in early May, Zhengzhou cotton soared. With the marginal weakening of the negative impact of tariffs and concerns about the supply before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise until late July. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of new cotton production increase, the overall increase was not significant [10][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Output Increased Slightly Year - on - Year, Focus on the Cotton Planting Area in the Southern Hemisphere - **Global Cotton Ending Stocks Increased, with Overall Low Pressure**: According to the December USDA report, compared with the previous month, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 120,000 bales, the production estimate decreased by 290,000 bales, and the consumption estimate decreased by 270,000 bales, with the ending stocks estimate increasing by 40,000 bales. In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 1.21 million bales year - on - year, the production estimate increased by 510,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 320,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 1.36 million bales, but the overall pressure was not great [12]. - **Improved Import Demand for Textiles and Clothing in Europe and the US**: - **Consumer Confidence**: In November, the US Michigan consumer confidence index was 51, down 2.6 points month - on - month and had been declining for three consecutive months, rising to 53.3 in December. The EU consumer confidence index was - 13.6 in November, basically flat month - on - month, and - 12.4 in December, down 1.2 points month - on - month and up 5.1 points year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the same period in the past three years since March [14]. - **Import Volume**: In September, the EU's textile and clothing imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the US were 5.66 billion euros, up 380 million euros month - on - month and slightly up 50 million euros year - on - year. From January to September, the EU's cumulative imports from these four countries were 43.675 billion euros, up 4.213 billion euros year - on - year. In September, the US imported a total of $10.582 billion worth of textiles and clothing, down $1.161 billion year - on - year, a decrease of 9.89%. From January to September, the US's cumulative imports were $90.413 billion, down $210 million year - on - year. China's share in the US market dropped significantly, with cumulative imports from China being $16.912 billion, down $6.352 billion year - on - year, and the market share dropping by 6.96 percentage points compared with the same period last year [16]. - **开机率 in Southeast Asia**: The开机率 of Indian and Vietnamese spinning mills showed a downward trend, while that of Pakistani spinning mills showed an upward trend and was at the highest level in the same period in the past three years, performing the best [22][26]. - **Slow Progress of US Cotton Export Sign - ups**: - **High Ending Stocks and Limited Production Adjustment Space**: In December, compared with November, the US cotton production estimate decreased by 150,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 100,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. The 2025/2026 US cotton planting area was expected to be 9.3 million acres, the harvested area was estimated to be 7.37 million acres, the yield per acre was estimated to be 929 pounds, and the total production was 14.268 million bales, down 145,000 bales year - on - year [29]. - **Slow Overall Sign - ups and a Sharp Drop in China's Sign - ups**: As of the week of November 13, the weekly sign - up of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week, up 10% from the four - week average, and up 22% year - on - year. The total sign - up volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.2706 million tons, accounting for 49% of the annual predicted total export volume, 12 percentage points slower than the same period last year. China's total sign - up volume was 37,000 tons, a significant decrease of 74% compared with the same period last year [37][42]. - **Slow US Cotton Inspection**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower year - on - year. Considering the 10% production reduction this year, the inspection speed was comparable to that of last year [45]. - **Supply - Demand Situation in Other Cotton - Producing Countries**: - **Accumulated Inventory in India**: In the 2025/26 season, India's cotton beginning stocks increased by 710,000 bales year - on - year, the export volume estimate was basically flat year - on - year, the import volume estimate decreased slightly by 240,000 bales year - on - year, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 500,000 bales year - on - year to the highest level in the past three years [50]. - **Divergent Estimates of Brazilian Cotton Production**: Brazilian institutions had different forecasts for the increase or decrease of Brazilian cotton production in 2025/26, but the market expected that the cotton planting area in Brazil would be difficult to increase this season. The USDA report showed that the Brazilian cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 18.75 million bales, a 10% increase year - on - year [58][60]. - **Probable Decrease in Australian Cotton Production**: Affected by factors such as insufficient irrigation water supply, poor soil moisture during the sowing period, rising planting costs, and better returns from competing crops, Australia's cotton planting area was expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season. The latest USDA report showed that Australia's cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 4.5 million bales, a 2.3% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Domestic Market Supply - Demand Situation - **Substantial Increase in Production**: - **Increased Production and Low Imports**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production estimate increased by 1.5 million bales year - on - year to 33.5 million bales, reaching a new high since 2013, and consumption decreased slightly by 500,000 bales to 38.5 million bales. Imports were expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 320,000 bales year - on - year to 351.62 million bales, at a high level in the past five years [64]. - **Non - Concentrated Pima Cotton Costs and Faster Sales**: As of December 11, the national Pima cotton processing rate was 84%, 2.2 percentage points higher year - on - year, and the sales rate was 41.6%, 23.5 percentage points higher year - on - year [68]. - **Flat Commercial Stocks Year - on - Year**: As of the end of November, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 4.68 million tons, a significant increase of 1.753 million tons month - on - month due to the listing of new cotton, and basically flat year - on - year, at the highest level in the same period in recent years [72]. - **First Decline and Then Rise in the Domestic - Foreign Price Difference and a Sharp Drop in Cotton Imports**: In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, down 10,000 tons month - on - month and 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a significant decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 67.5% [76]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand and Poor Exports**: - **Recovery of Cotton Spinning PMI in the Fourth Quarter**: In November, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased slightly by 2 points month - on - month, and the decline was significantly narrower than in the same period of last year and the year before. The overall trend of cotton spinning PMI was similar to that of last year, not as good as in 2023, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [86]. - **Poor Overall Spinning Mill Operation**: The domestic spinning mill operation load was basically at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years this year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. As of this week, the spinning mill operation load index was 51, and the finished - product inventory was 27.6 days. The cloth mill operation rate reached a phased high in early April and then fluctuated and declined, and started to recover in August. As of this week, the cloth mill operation load index was 51.7, and the finished - product inventory was 31.2 days [87]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand**: In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 147.08 billion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1.20528 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than in the same period last year [95]. - **Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Textile and Clothing Exports, with Overall Declines in Exports to the US and ASEAN**: In November, domestic textile and clothing exports were $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 7 percentage points narrower than in the previous month. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were $267.79 billion, a slight 1.9% year - on - year decrease. Exports to ASEAN and the US decreased significantly, while exports to the EU market remained stable [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Possible Stable but Slightly Declining US Cotton Planting Area, Focus on Whether the Southern Hemisphere's Area Will Decrease**: Based on the soybean/cotton and corn/cotton price - ratio trends, the current price ratios are significantly higher than last year. Judging from the price ratios alone, the US cotton planting area in 2026 is likely to remain stable with a slight decline compared to 2025. The Brazilian cotton planting area is expected to be difficult to increase this season, and the Australian cotton planting area is expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season [2][105]. - **Uncertainty about the Cotton Planting Area under Policy Guidance**: In 2026, a new cotton target price will be formulated. The market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the cotton planting area in 2026, but it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [111].

Recent Price Movement Most cotton benchmarks were stable over the past month. Around the end of late November, the NY/ICE March contract tested levels near 65 cents/lb but has since retreated to values closer to 63 cents. The A Index was range-bound, but drifted lower within its range, easing from 76 to 74 cents/lb over the past month. The Chinese Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) was also generally steady, but it moved slightly higher, from 94 to 96 cents/lb in international terms. In domestic terms, v ...

四季度以来，ICE棉花期货价格呈偏弱震荡走势，主力合约最低下探63美分／磅一线，原因有两方面： 一方面，美国政府"停摆"导致市场数据缺失，且全球贸易存在不确定性；另一方面，美棉产量预估变化 和出口情况对美棉价格不利。 全球棉花期末库存增加 美国产量调整空间或有限 12月USDA供需报告显示，与11月相比，美棉产量预估调增15万包，消费量预估调减10万包，最终期末 库存预估调增20万包，至450万包。与上年度相比，美棉期末库存增加50万包，主要贡献来自期初库存 的增加，期末库销比上升3.2个百分点。 根据USDA统计，截至2025年12月5日当周，美棉累计检验量为200.85万吨，占全年美棉产量预估值的 65.7%，较去年同期低11个百分点。美棉收获进入尾声，上市检验进入高峰期，上市进度同比落后幅度 收窄，质量指标继续上升。12月USDA供需报告显示，2025/2026年度美棉整体弃种率为20.75%，结合 往年美棉生长状况，弃种率并无显著矛盾。另外，美棉收获进入尾声，预计美棉产量后期调整幅度不 大。由此推测，美棉出口量的变化是影响美棉价格的关键因素之一。 美棉周度出口报告显示，截至11月6日当周，美国陆地棉周 ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：在质疑中前行 p 2 棉花：在质疑中前行 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量同比增加，当前仍是北半球棉花供应压力高峰期，且仍将持续一段时间，上方压力不容忽视。 1、USDA11月报预计，2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计值为2614.5万吨，环比增加52.3万吨，同比增加0.7%。其中美国棉花产量预计为307.4万吨，环比调增19.6万吨；巴 西棉花产量408.9万吨，环比调增10.9万吨；中国棉花产量预计值为729.4万吨，环比调增21.8万吨。2、当前国内棉花采摘、交售已经基本结束。据同花顺数据，截至11 月20日，新棉加工量为463.1万吨，同比增加140万吨，新棉加工率64.2%，同比增加4.3%。3、截至11月27日，全国棉花公检量404.89万吨，较去年同比增加53.94万吨， 其中新疆地区公检量398.38万吨。 需求端：下游新疆地区纺织企业利润较好，开机稳定，10月服装鞋帽、针、纺织品零售额 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, demand is not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remains at a moderately weak level, and the previous decline in the futures market has digested the bearish impact of a bumper harvest. Currently, there is no strong driving force for the market, and it is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was reported at 63.93 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.21 cents per pound or 0.33% from the previous week. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at -1.26 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton or 0.07% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,371 yuan per ton, a decrease of 435 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 917 yuan per ton, a decrease of 425 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reported at 15 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: According to the latest monthly supply - demand report data from the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the production in the US increased by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; and the production in China increased by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36%. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of November 14, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past five years (72.6%); the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [9]. - **View and Strategy**: It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy recommendation is to wait and see [9][11]. 2. Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and spreads of US cotton contracts, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [23]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [37]. - **Cotton Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are presented, as well as the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [39][42]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [47]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented, as well as the raw material and finished product inventories of spinning mills [52][54]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Charts show the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the good - excellent rate of US cotton, production, planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [58]. - **Brazil Situation**: The planting area, production, and export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio are presented [70]. - **India Situation**: The planting area, production, consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The November USDA report increased the production estimates of the US and China, which was overall bearish. With the increase in new cotton processing volume, the market's estimate of the new - season cotton production was also raised. Downstream demand was average, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in finished products, but the overall pressure was not significant. As seed cotton procurement was nearing completion, the supply pressure was becoming more evident with the concentrated listing of new cotton. It was expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures would be weak in the short term. Key factors to watch were macro - economic conditions, demand, and policies [3]. - The November USDA report did not adjust the harvested price of US cotton but raised the yield per unit, ultimately increasing the US cotton production estimate by 200,000 tons compared to September. It also increased China's cotton production estimate by 220,000 tons and Brazil's by 110,000 tons. Globally, the cotton production estimate was raised by 520,000 tons, and the ending inventory estimate was increased by 600,000 tons compared to September, showing a bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Production and Supply - As of November 13, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.3%, the delivery rate was 95.5%, the processing rate was 56%, and the sales rate was 22.8%. As of November 16, the national new cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 3.0893 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.24% [6]. - According to the USDA's weekly export report, as of the week ending September 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81%, a 4% decrease from the four - week average, and a year - on - year increase of 77% [24]. - As of 24:00 on November 17, the cotton inspection volume in the 25/26 season was about 3.1708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19.73% [42]. Cotton Market Price and Index - From November 10 to November 17, the price of the ZCE active cotton contract dropped from 13,580 yuan/ton to 13,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and the ICE active cotton contract dropped from 64.34 cents/pound to 64.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.13 cents/pound [10]. - From November 10 to November 17, the CotlookA price index dropped from 75.2 cents/pound to 74.4 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.80 cents/pound, and the Indian S - 6 spot price dropped from 52,300 rupees/candy to 51,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 400 rupees/candy [12]. - From November 10 to November 17, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarns such as Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S all decreased [14]. - From November 10 to November 17, the arrival prices of imported cotton such as US EMOT M and Brazilian M under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty all decreased [15]. Textile and Apparel Market - In October 2025, China's textile and apparel export volume was 2.2619 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Among them, textile exports decreased by 9.10% year - on - year and 5.92% month - on - month, and apparel exports decreased by 15.97% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month [4]. - Benefiting from the pre - promotion of "Double Eleven", clothing consumption showed a stable recovery trend. In October, the retail sales of textiles and apparel reached 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.6 percentage points month - on - month, significantly outperforming the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. Inventory and Related Indicators - As of this Wednesday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,314, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28 [69]. - On Tuesday of this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week. The price index of C32S yarn increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week [54][55]. - On Tuesday of this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty and 1% tariff increased week - on - week. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased week - on - week [58]. - On Tuesday of this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract widened week - on - week, and the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn showed a wider loss week - on - week [61].

Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and they will fluctuate within a narrow range. New cotton harvest is at its peak, increasing hedging pressure. The textile industry's peak season is lackluster, with limited downstream demand orders. Domestic commercial inventories are at a historical low, cushioning price drops. Although costs have recovered, textile enterprises are still generally operating at a loss. The basis has slightly declined, and spot prices are firm. The rising seed cotton purchase price, increased processing costs, and adjusted production expectations support cotton prices, but the weak recovery of downstream demand restricts price increases [3]. Section Summaries 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton fluctuated weakly, trading around 65 cents/pound. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 to 69,367 contracts, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2,020 to 114,787 contracts, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2,771 to - 45,420 contracts [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Review**: Zhengzhou cotton rose under pressure, trading at 13,350 - 13,610 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,540 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 205 yuan or 1.54%. As of October 24, the registered and forecasted cotton warehouse receipts totaled 3,188 contracts, equivalent to 133,896 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were generally stable, but trading was light. The seed cotton purchase price has been rising since the start of the season, and the current price is 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, providing some support for cotton prices. The overall spot basis has narrowed, and many cotton merchants have lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton production will reach 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be 6.911 billion tons, a 9.2% increase, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, while exports have slightly improved. Weaving mills'开机率 has declined after the holiday, and they are purchasing raw materials on a wait - and - see basis [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 409 - 519 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 950.8 - - 835.3 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 24, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a weekly increase of 278,000 tons but 202,800 tons lower than last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a decrease of 46,800 tons from the previous month [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September forecast, global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have stopped being released [47]. - **US Cotton Growth Status**: The report does not provide detailed information on US cotton growth status.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that in mid - October 2025, the new cotton picking and selling progress in Xinjiang is faster than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather will slow down the picking. The new cotton price is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost is still supported. The demand side indicates that the spinning mills' operating rate is low, and the peak season is weak, so the restocking enthusiasm is expected to be low. Overall, the large - scale acquisition and processing of new - season cotton bring significant hedging demand, with upward pressure and cost - based support below. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 117,362 lots, down 10,259 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 139 lots, down 59 lots. - Cotton main contract positions were 599,556 lots, up 6,744 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions were 23,684 lots, up 449 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 2,526 lots, down 39 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 6 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,106 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. - China's yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, unchanged. - The profit from imported cotton was 733 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 8.07%, down 1.26%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 8.07%, down 1.22%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.57%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.98%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025/26 season was 4,331,712 bales, totaling 978,606 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.07%. The cumulative notarized inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 961,248 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.69%. - ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which delayed the release of USDA reports and left the market without clear trading guidance. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed down 0.68 cents, or 1.06%, at 63.74 cents per pound [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Report title: New cotton listing stage, under pressure [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fundamental aspects: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, meeting market expectations, and China-US leaders' phone call promoted trade negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to slow down to 3.4%. The USDA September report was bearish, with no adjustment in the US and a slight increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio outside China. On the supply side, the expectation of a bumper harvest is clear, and the listing period is earlier than usual. The opening price of machine-picked seed cotton was in line with market expectations and then declined slightly. The commercial cotton inventory is rapidly decreasing, and the end-of-September inventory is expected to be 80-90 million tons, the lowest in recent years. In August 2025, cotton imports increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative imports in the 2024/25 season were 105 million tons, a 68% year-on-year decrease. On the demand side, the profit situation of textile enterprises has improved, but there is still a shortage of downstream orders. The operating rate of textile enterprises first increased and then decreased, and the finished product inventory continued to decline. Domestic consumption in August was okay, but the cumulative year-on-year increase continued to narrow. Overseas market consumption has recovered, but China's export situation remains weak [7][55]. - Viewpoint: October is the peak period for Xinjiang cotton listing and processing. Attention should be paid to the processing and circulation of new cotton and the inventory accumulation speed. Under the pressure of a bumper harvest this year and hedging during the listing period, the trend will still be weak. Due to more pre-hedging this year, the pressure has been advanced, and the overall decline in October may narrow. Pay attention to the support performance of the integer关口 of the main contract. In the far month, pay attention to the demand performance and macro policy changes [7][55]. - Strategy: Short on rallies, sell call options, and converge the internal and external price difference [7][55]. - Important variables: Reserve policy; tariff changes; listing progress [7][55]. Group 3: Market Review - ICE cotton: In September, the main contract of ICE cotton continued to fluctuate in a wide range, with the trading center moving down, and the monthly decline was 1.6%. The USDA September supply and demand balance sheet made no adjustments in the US, and the inventory-to-sales ratio outside China increased slightly. The report was slightly bearish. The Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points met market expectations, and the macro boost was relatively limited. The net long position of CFTC funds remained low, and the capital driving willingness was low [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton: In September, Zhengzhou cotton changed from rising to falling, with a monthly decline of 7.2%. In September, the new cotton listing period began. The accumulated temperature in the main producing areas was good during the growth stage. The market generally expected the new cotton supply this year to be 7.3-7.5 million tons, with a clear expectation of a bumper harvest and an earlier listing period. Coupled with more pre-hedging pressure than in previous years, Zhengzhou cotton was mainly under pressure in September [11]. Group 4: Global Cotton Supply and Demand - USDA September report adjustments: The report was overall bearish. In the US, the output was increased by 0.2 million tons to 2.878 million tons, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. In India, the beginning inventory was increased by 2.6 million tons to 2.171 million tons, the output was increased by 10.9 million tons to 5.225 million tons, the imports were decreased by 2.2 million tons to 0.61 million tons, the exports were increased by 6.5 million tons to 0.283 million tons, and the ending inventory was increased by 4.8 million tons to 2.28 million tons. In China, the beginning inventory was decreased by 20.7 million tons to 7.585 million tons, the output was increased by 21.8 million tons to 7.076 million tons, the imports were decreased by 2.2 million tons to 1.132 million tons, the consumption was increased by 21.8 million tons to 8.382 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 22.9 million tons to 7.396 million tons. In Brazil, there was no adjustment. Overall, the global cotton output was increased by 23.1 million tons to 25.621 million tons, the trade volume was increased by 5.2 million tons to 19.031 million tons, the consumption was increased by 18.3 million tons to 25.872 million tons, the ending inventory was decreased by 16.8 million tons to 15.924 million tons, a 1.04% month-on-month decrease [14]. Group 5: Domestic Supply and Demand - New-year output forecast: In August 2025, the survey by the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year-on-year increase. Due to better weather and proper water and fertilizer management by cotton farmers, the cotton growth was good. The total output in Xinjiang reached a new high, and the national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% year-on-year increase and a 321,000-ton increase from the previous period, the highest since 2013 [19]. - Cotton purchase and processing: In late September, seed cotton was gradually picked and listed across the country. In Xinjiang, multiple rainfall and cooling affected the spraying effect of defoliants, and the large-scale machine-picking time was postponed. From September 22 to 28, the domestic spot and futures prices of lint cotton fluctuated and declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased. The price of hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 7.3-7.6 yuan/kg at the beginning to 7.1-7.3 yuan/kg, and the price of machine-picked cotton decreased from 6.2-6.4 yuan/kg to 6.0-6.3 yuan/kg. Affected by the high moisture content of newly picked seed cotton, processing enterprises were generally cautious to ensure purchase quality and adjusted the purchase rhythm according to market changes. The purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable, mostly between 7-7.5 yuan/kg. Recently, the picking speed has slowed down due to continuous rainfall and inability to dry [21]. - Inventory situation: In mid-September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons from the end of last month; the industrial cotton inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the end of last month. The commercial cotton inventory continued to decline rapidly in September, and the end-of-September inventory is expected to be 800,000-900,000 tons, the lowest in recent years. The industrial cotton inventory level decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory for rigid demand, currently at a neutral level in previous years. In September, the yarn inventory index was 26.43 days, a decrease of 2.28 days from last month; the grey fabric inventory index was 29.83 days, a decrease of 3.03 days from last month [25]. - Cotton import volume: In August 2025, the import volume was 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 17,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year-on-year decrease. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.05 million tons, a 68% year-on-year decrease [30]. - Textile enterprise processing: As of September 26, according to the statistics of the Cotton Textile Information Network, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last week; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last week; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 8.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days from last week; the cotton grey fabric inventory was 30.7 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last week. As of September 26, the yarn load index in China was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2% from last week; the grey fabric load index in China was 52.5%, a decrease of 0.3% from last week. In September, due to the decline in cotton prices, the profit situation of textile enterprises improved, but the shortage of downstream orders still existed. Weaving factories postponed yarn procurement due to the expected decline in cotton prices, disrupting the peak season rhythm. The operating rate of textile enterprises first increased and then decreased in September, and the finished product inventory was in a downward trend [32][33]. - Textile demand: In August 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year-on-year increase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 940 billion yuan, a 2.9% year-on-year increase. Among them, the clothing retail sales from January to August were 670.8 billion yuan, a 2.2% year-on-year increase. In August 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was 26.5 billion US dollars, a 5.1% year-on-year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing export volume was 197.3 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year-on-year decrease. From the perspective of textile and clothing import data in the US, EU, and Japan, in June 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing imports in the EU were 970,000 tons, a 12.6% year-on-year increase; in July 2025, the textile and clothing imports in the US were 1.01 billion square meters, a 1.6% year-on-year increase; in August 2025, the textile and clothing imports in Japan were 210,000 tons, a 2.1% year-on-year decrease. Overall, domestic consumption performance was okay, but the cumulative year-on-year increase continued to narrow. External demand consumption recovered, and the US market's year-on-year imports continued to rise in July, but China's export situation remained weak [42].