Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate, with the main contract closing at 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - From August 9-11, the basis for spot Australian cotton LM1-5/32 (strength 29-30 GPT) was approximately 3.5-4.5 cents/pound, while LM1-3/16 (strength 30 GPT) had a basis of 6-6.75 cents/pound. The basis for bonded Australian cotton M1-5/32 (strength 28/29) at major ports in China was generally around 13.5-15 cents/pound [2] - In the first week of August, Brazil exported 17,242.63 tons of cotton, with an average daily export volume of 2,873.77 tons, a decrease of 43% compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August 2024. The total export volume for August 2024 was 111,764.74 tons, with the decline attributed to reduced market demand and price competition [2] - As of the week ending August 8, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.7%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week and down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week and down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. Weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.01 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week-on-week and flat year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with recent weather conditions having limited impact on cotton growth. The market has strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025, which is suppressing the prices of distant contracts. Demand remains under pressure, with low operating rates in textile enterprises, high grey fabric inventory, insufficient export orders, and no significant improvement in domestic consumption. Although some textile companies expect a temporary recovery in late August, overall market confidence is lacking. The current cotton prices face pressure from above and support from below, with the market lacking core drivers and awaiting further news [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures indicated that cotton prices are currently maintaining a range-bound trend. On the supply side, cotton supply is relatively tight, and the spot basis remains firm. Future attention is needed on whether additional sliding tax quota will be issued. On the demand side, there are marginal improvements in downstream industries, but overall confidence remains low. Macroeconomic factors suggest that short-term tariff impacts may weaken, and attention should be paid to policies against "involution" affecting bulk commodities. Overall, Zheng cotton may experience short-term fluctuations with potential upward movement, but the upper space is expected to be limited, and medium-term pressure is anticipated from the new cotton harvest [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, while the cotton yarn futures contract declined by 0.78%. Domestically, cotton is in a destocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton goes on the market, and the basis is firm. On the demand side, the textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid demand. In 2025, the overall planting area of Chinese cotton has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, due to the weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas, it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: U.S. cotton futures prices are weak. Domestically, cotton is destocking, supply is tight before new cotton is available, and the basis is strong. The textile industry is in the off - season, with reduced profits for inland spinning enterprises, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for rigid demand. The overall planting area of Chinese cotton in 2025 has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of high temperatures in Xinjiang on new crop growth. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro - factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: The price of the U.S. cotton December contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.45%. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 1.09% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions increased by 0.33% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 1.47% month - on - month [10]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of the week ending July 31, U.S. cotton export shipments were 182,300 bales, with the total export shipments reaching 11,191,200 bales, a 1% increase from the previous year. The net increase in cotton export sales for the week was 92,100 bales. As of August 5, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was reported at 77.75 cents per pound, a 0.32% increase month - on - month [15]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,574, and that in cotton yarn futures was 119 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,252, and that of cotton yarn futures was 83 [23][29][34]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,178 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,620 yuan per ton. As of August 7, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,760 yuan per ton [44][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 6, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was reported at 13,480 yuan per ton, a 0.44% increase month - on - month; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was reported at 14,282 yuan per ton, a 0.34% increase month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was reported at 21,206 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 6, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 896 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,698 yuan per ton [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 18.18%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [65]. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the total imported cotton was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 670,000 tons [69]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Export**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was reported at 1,204,820,700 US dollars, a month - on - month decline of 4.62%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was reported at 1,526,671,400 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.44% [77]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 742.59 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.98%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month decline of 6.06% [81]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton options market this week was provided [82]. - **Stock Market - Xinong Development**: Information on the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was provided [88].

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices turned and accelerated their decline. The main reasons were the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiations and the upcoming new cotton harvest, with downstream buyers not willing to accept price increases [4]. - The Sino - US trade negotiations were postponed, which was below market expectations, leading to a general weakening of commodities. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to 01. Recently, the decline of 09 was greater than that of 01, and 01 started to trade at a premium to 09. Currently in the consumption off - season, and the market outlook for the "Golden September and Silver October" is unclear. The 01 contract should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a year - on - year decline in commercial inventories. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices dropped rapidly. The ICAC July report showed that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The USDA July report indicated that the 25/26 season production is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 30,000 tons of cotton in June, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July forecast for the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips No information related to daily tips is provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA July report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. The ICAC report shows that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China in the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information related to position data is provided in the report.

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton inventory reduction during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Directory Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 24, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; the棉纱 import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% from the previous month and 3.10% from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 27.315 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.22% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.13% from the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in the country was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of July 27, the budding rate of cotton in the United States was 80%, 6% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8% behind the same period last year and 2% behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 6 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US upland cotton for the 24/25 season was 8,868 tons, significantly higher than the average of the past four weeks; the shipment of upland cotton was 52,367 tons, an increase of 25% from the previous week and 10% from the average of the past four weeks; the net signing of Pima cotton was 23 tons, the shipment of Pima cotton was 1,973 tons, the signing of new - season upland cotton was 16,261 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 1,134 tons [1]. Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of July 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.45% from the previous month and 13.86% from the same period last year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% from the previous month and 6.31% from the same period last year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% from the previous month and an increase of 1.23% from the same period last year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous month and an increase of 7.59% from the same period last year [1]. Futures Market - **Cotton Futures**: The closing prices of Zhengmian 01, 05, and 09 were 13,785 yuan, 13,730 yuan, and 13,585 yuan respectively, with weekly declines of 330 yuan (-2.34%), 310 yuan (-2.21%), and 585 yuan (-4.13%) [21][24]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of CC Index 3128B, CC Index 2227B, and CC Index 2129B were 15,580 yuan, 13,670 yuan, and 15,873 yuan respectively, with increases of 31 yuan (0.2%), 32 yuan (0.23%), and 7 yuan (0.04%) [24]. - **Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 65 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 125 yuan, an increase of 295 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 190 yuan, a decrease of 285 yuan [24]. - **Import Prices**: The price of FC Index M was 13,738 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan (0.33%); the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,230 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan (0.05%) [24]. - **Cotton Yarn**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 19,740 yuan, a weekly decline of 630 yuan (-3.09%); the spot price was 20,670 yuan, a decline of 70 yuan (-0.34%) [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in cotton futures prices, with the domestic and international market showing mixed signals and a lack of clear direction [1] - As of Friday's close, cotton futures for the 2509 contract were reported at 14,170 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% [1] - The weighted average price of cotton in the domestic market was 15,549 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 41 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Internationally, the USDA reported a significant drop in weekly cancellations of U.S. cotton contracts for the 2024/25 season, totaling 0.74 million tons, which is a substantial decrease compared to previous weeks [1] - The export volume of cotton products from China for June 2025 was 628,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4.28% [1] - The market analysis suggests that the global cotton supply for the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose due to increased production in Brazil and China, despite a tight domestic inventory situation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: Trade tariffs imposed by the US on most countries increase market uncertainty and may lead to inflation, supporting a rebound in cotton prices. However, the latest USDA export data shows that export pressure persists, constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. The expected increase in supply also exerts pressure on cotton prices [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton prices are rising strongly, supported by tight domestic cotton inventories. Cotton prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the downstream operating rate is still declining, spinning profit losses are increasing, and yarn inventories are accumulating, which is unfavorable for raw material procurement. Cotton prices face pressure from weakening demand and profit - taking by funds at high levels. The issue of Sino - US trade tariffs will gradually increase market attention and price volatility [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview Market Price Situation - Futures closing prices (active) of NYBOT 2 - grade cotton increased from 67.42 to 68.76, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%, and are expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM) rose from 75.28 to 76.38, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract increased from 13,885 to 14,270, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound. The international cotton market is still in a downward trend due to demand concerns, while the domestic market is relatively strong because of lower year - on - year inventories [5]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) rose from 15,266 to 15,508, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) increased from 13,597 to 13,815, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) rose from 20,490 to 20,740, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - Cotton spot import profit increased from 1,669 to 1,693, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton futures import profit increased from 288 to 455, a week - on - week increase of 57.99%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton yarn import profit increased from - 1,524 to - 1,393, a week - on - week increase of 8.60%, but it remains weak [5]. - Cotton basis decreased from 1,420 to 1,238, a week - on - week decrease of 12.82%, and is expected to remain strong in the short term but gradually weaken [5]. - Cotton yarn basis decreased from 400 to 220, a week - on - week decrease of 45.00%, and is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [5]. Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, global cotton production increased from 25.5038 million tons to 25.8156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, and the next - year production forecast is upward - adjusted; global cotton inventory increased from 16.7434 million tons to 16.8557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 65.22% to 65.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%, which is bearish for the market. The weekly net sales of US cotton decreased from 255,000 tons to 341,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.08%, which also exerts pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Domestic market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly from 6.54 million tons to 6.758 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%. Commercial cotton inventory decreased from 3.4587 million tons to 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18%. Cotton imports decreased from 40,000 tons to 30,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The downstream operating rate decreased from 68.39% to 68.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. Textile exports increased from $26.20951 billion to $27.314921 billion, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%, but there are concerns about future exports [6]. 2. Spot Market Prices and Spreads - Spot cotton and yarn price trends: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B), the International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM), the China Yarn Price Index, and the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) all showed upward trends [5][13][14][15][16]. - Basis: This week, the cotton basis rebounded, while the cotton yarn basis showed a volatile downward trend [18]. - Cotton and cotton yarn internal - external spreads: The document presents the trends of import cotton prices, internal - external cotton spreads, import yarn prices, and internal - external yarn spreads [22]. 3. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA supply - demand data (July): Global cotton production and ending inventory are upward - adjusted, which is bearish for the market [25]. - International market: US upland cotton export shipments and contracts decreased [28]. 4. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton market: According to the USDA July forecast, both supply and demand are expected to decline [32]. - Domestic cotton market: Commercial inventories are in a destocking state, and port inventories are declining at an accelerated pace [35]. - Domestic cotton market: Cotton imports are slowing down [38]. - Domestic textile enterprises: The operating rate is decreasing, yarn inventories are rising, and cotton raw material inventories are decreasing [41]. - Domestic cotton spinning: Imports have not increased significantly, while textile exports are not bad [44]. 5. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB is slowly appreciating [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. The June USDA report had a bullish impact on the market as it lowered the expected harvested area and yield per unit of US cotton, reducing the expected production to 14 million bales and the ending stocks by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. However, the net sales of US cotton exports last week were only 96,300 bales, a significant decrease from the previous week. Coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US cotton - growing regions recently, US cotton prices were under pressure. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, US cotton prices fluctuated weakly [6]. - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory was continuously being depleted, and the import of cotton was relatively low. Meanwhile, the downstream demand was in the off - season. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, there was little improvement in cotton prices. Currently, the sowing of new - season cotton in Xinjiang was completed, and the weather in the growing regions was normal, with cotton growing well. - Strategy: With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices will continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the sowing of new cotton is completed, and the weather in the growing regions is favorable. At the same time, the commercial inventory is continuously being depleted, and cotton imports are relatively low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, cotton prices will basically remain stable. Waiting for new market guidance, Zhengzhou cotton futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 13, the ICE US cotton 07 contract closed at 67.90 cents per pound, down 0.424 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.35%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, up 135 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.01% [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Sowing**: As of the week of June 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 49%, the same as the previous week, compared with 56% in the same period last year. The planting rate was 76%, up from 66% the previous week, compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The squaring rate was 12%, up from 8% the previous week, compared with 13% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 12% [12][16]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton exports were 60,000 bales, down from 110,000 bales the previous week; the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 36,000 bales, down from 39,000 bales the previous week [12][20]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. The operating rate of spinning mills decreased significantly. Spinning mills had limited orders, with the operating rate of small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas dropping to 50% - 60%, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills remained stable at 80% - 90% [12][23]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of the week of June 12, the inventory of cotton in mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.3 days of consumption. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The operating rate of downstream fabric mills decreased significantly, and raw material procurement slowed down. The raw material inventory of spinning mills showed an accumulating trend, with the inventory of some large mills in Xinjiang being about 35 - 40 days, and that of inland enterprises being about 15 - 25 days [12][27]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.098 million tons, a decrease of 111,200 tons (a decline of 3.47%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 2.2064 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,600 tons (a decline of 4.19%), and the commercial cotton inventory in the inland areas was 448,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.19% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 443,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentioned the tracking of cotton basis, 9 - 1 spread of cotton, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but did not provide specific data [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook considering various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory. The recent progress in Sino - US negotiations with mutual tariff cuts has a short - term positive impact on the market, but the overall market is also affected by multiple contradictory factors [4]. - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 09 had a short - term rebound due to the Sino - US tariff cuts and the 90 - day window for export orders. However, the upward momentum is weakening, and the market center is starting to move downwards [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review The report does not explicitly mention the content of the previous day's review. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The USDA May report shows a decrease in 25/26 cotton production, an increase in consumption, and unchanged ending stocks. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. China's cotton imports in April were 60,000 tons, an 82.2% year - on - year decrease; cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. The rural department's April forecast for the 24/25 season includes a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending stocks of 8.31 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,572, with a basis of 1,242 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's April forecast for the 24/25 season shows ending stocks of 8.31 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [4]. - **Expectation**: Due to the previous Sino - US tariff cuts and the 90 - day window for export orders, foreign trade textile enterprises have started to rush for exports. The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 09 rebounded in the short term but faced increasing selling pressure, and the upward momentum weakened. As the positive news fades over time, the market center begins to move downwards [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: The reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs leads to a 90 - day window for foreign trade export orders. The futures price is close to historical lows [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders are declining, inventory is increasing, and Europe has introduced a bill to restrict imports [5]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Global Production and Consumption**: The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous year. Consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a 1% increase. Ending stocks are expected to be 17.065 million tons, a marginal decrease of 0.6% [10]. - **China's Cotton Situation**: In 2024/25 (April estimate), China's production is 5.62 million tons, imports are 3.25 million tons, consumption is 7.69 million tons, and ending stocks are 8.28 million tons. In 2025/26 (May forecast), production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, imports 1.4 million tons, consumption 7.4 million tons, and ending stocks 8.53 million tons [18]. 3.5. Position Data The report indicates that the main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, suggesting a bearish trend for the main players [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend as there is insufficient fundamental upward momentum. The market is waiting for the first supply - demand report of new cotton crops from USDA on May 13th. It will also focus on the growth of new US cotton crops, US cotton exports, and the international trade environment [24]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. They are affected by weak demand expectations and external market factors. Although the basis is firm due to concentrated spot ownership and downstream rigid demand, the supply side lacks upward drivers due to expected growth in Xinjiang's cotton area and favorable weather. The demand side has limited ability to boost cotton futures, and the external market lacks substantial positive factors [2][24]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.26 | 69.10 | 66.22 | 66.72 | - 1.64 | - 2.40 | 100906 | - 20581 | 105821 | - 1353 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 12870 | 13015 | 12675 | 12950 | 200 | 1.57 | 808084 | 251108 | 574084 | - 6956 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 18840 | 19470 | 18680 | 19220 | 430 | 2.29 | 22251 | 9624 | 22183 | 2470 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Trend**: ICE cotton trended downward in a sideways movement this week, with the old - crop July contract falling more than the new - crop December contract. It was suppressed by a stronger US dollar, uncertainties in US trade relations, and market caution ahead of the China - US talks and the USDA report [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 1st, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 14,900 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 89,600 tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6008 million tons, accounting for 110% of the annual forecasted export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.9202 million tons, accounting for 74% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **Brazil**: April cotton exports are expected to be flat month - on - month. The state of Mato Grosso is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production due to expanded planting area and increased yield per unit. The preliminary April raw cotton export volume was about 239,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from July to April was about 2.55 million tons, an increase from the previous season [9]. - **India**: The market is sluggish. The Cotton Corporation of India offers about 990,000 bales of cotton for sale daily, including about 12,000 bales from the 2023/24 season. The base price of S - 6 remains unchanged [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is weak. Cotton sowing is progressing, with Punjab at 43% completion and Sindh at 27% due to water shortages. Cotton production is temporarily maintained at 7 - 8 million bales [10]. - **Australia**: March cotton exports were at a low level. The long - term forecast from May to July shows a high probability of below - normal precipitation and above - normal temperatures. The March raw cotton export volume was 22,704 tons [12]. - **Bangladesh**: April garment exports decreased significantly month - on - month. Spinning mills'开工 rates are limited by gas supply issues. The April export value of knitted and woven garments was $2.39 billion, and the cumulative export value from July to April increased by 10% year - on - year [13]. - **Turkey**: Domestic demand has declined. Yarn demand has slowed, and spinning mills'开工 rates are about 60%. The March raw cotton import volume was 81,395 tons, and the export volume was 25,039 tons [14]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry**: As of the week of May 9th, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59% respectively [15]. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price**: During the week of May 9th, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly. Spot trading was generally light, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable, with some cotton merchants raising their basis quotes [16]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 9th, there were 11,282 registered warehouse receipts and 853 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,135 receipts, equivalent to 509,670 tons [16]. - **Downstream Market**: The pure - cotton yarn market is entering the traditional off - season, with overall sales slowing down. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and the profit of inland textile enterprises fluctuated around the break - even point. The full - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with prices falling and orders scarce. The operating rate of weaving factories was 46.1%, and the inventory index was 40.8 days [17][18]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, and other aspects [20][21][22][23]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend. Before concerns about new US cotton crops arise and significant changes occur in US trade agreements, it will continue to move sideways. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, the operating rates of textile enterprises, and finished - product inventories [24].