Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. The June USDA report had a bullish impact on the market as it lowered the expected harvested area and yield per unit of US cotton, reducing the expected production to 14 million bales and the ending stocks by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. However, the net sales of US cotton exports last week were only 96,300 bales, a significant decrease from the previous week. Coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US cotton - growing regions recently, US cotton prices were under pressure. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, US cotton prices fluctuated weakly [6]. - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory was continuously being depleted, and the import of cotton was relatively low. Meanwhile, the downstream demand was in the off - season. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, there was little improvement in cotton prices. Currently, the sowing of new - season cotton in Xinjiang was completed, and the weather in the growing regions was normal, with cotton growing well. - Strategy: With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices will continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the sowing of new cotton is completed, and the weather in the growing regions is favorable. At the same time, the commercial inventory is continuously being depleted, and cotton imports are relatively low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, cotton prices will basically remain stable. Waiting for new market guidance, Zhengzhou cotton futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 13, the ICE US cotton 07 contract closed at 67.90 cents per pound, down 0.424 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.35%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, up 135 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.01% [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Sowing**: As of the week of June 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 49%, the same as the previous week, compared with 56% in the same period last year. The planting rate was 76%, up from 66% the previous week, compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The squaring rate was 12%, up from 8% the previous week, compared with 13% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 12% [12][16]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton exports were 60,000 bales, down from 110,000 bales the previous week; the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 36,000 bales, down from 39,000 bales the previous week [12][20]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. The operating rate of spinning mills decreased significantly. Spinning mills had limited orders, with the operating rate of small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas dropping to 50% - 60%, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills remained stable at 80% - 90% [12][23]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of the week of June 12, the inventory of cotton in mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.3 days of consumption. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The operating rate of downstream fabric mills decreased significantly, and raw material procurement slowed down. The raw material inventory of spinning mills showed an accumulating trend, with the inventory of some large mills in Xinjiang being about 35 - 40 days, and that of inland enterprises being about 15 - 25 days [12][27]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.098 million tons, a decrease of 111,200 tons (a decline of 3.47%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 2.2064 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,600 tons (a decline of 4.19%), and the commercial cotton inventory in the inland areas was 448,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.19% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 443,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentioned the tracking of cotton basis, 9 - 1 spread of cotton, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but did not provide specific data [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook considering various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory. The recent progress in Sino - US negotiations with mutual tariff cuts has a short - term positive impact on the market, but the overall market is also affected by multiple contradictory factors [4]. - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 09 had a short - term rebound due to the Sino - US tariff cuts and the 90 - day window for export orders. However, the upward momentum is weakening, and the market center is starting to move downwards [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review The report does not explicitly mention the content of the previous day's review. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The USDA May report shows a decrease in 25/26 cotton production, an increase in consumption, and unchanged ending stocks. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. China's cotton imports in April were 60,000 tons, an 82.2% year - on - year decrease; cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. The rural department's April forecast for the 24/25 season includes a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending stocks of 8.31 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,572, with a basis of 1,242 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's April forecast for the 24/25 season shows ending stocks of 8.31 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [4]. - **Expectation**: Due to the previous Sino - US tariff cuts and the 90 - day window for export orders, foreign trade textile enterprises have started to rush for exports. The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 09 rebounded in the short term but faced increasing selling pressure, and the upward momentum weakened. As the positive news fades over time, the market center begins to move downwards [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: The reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs leads to a 90 - day window for foreign trade export orders. The futures price is close to historical lows [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders are declining, inventory is increasing, and Europe has introduced a bill to restrict imports [5]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Global Production and Consumption**: The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous year. Consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a 1% increase. Ending stocks are expected to be 17.065 million tons, a marginal decrease of 0.6% [10]. - **China's Cotton Situation**: In 2024/25 (April estimate), China's production is 5.62 million tons, imports are 3.25 million tons, consumption is 7.69 million tons, and ending stocks are 8.28 million tons. In 2025/26 (May forecast), production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, imports 1.4 million tons, consumption 7.4 million tons, and ending stocks 8.53 million tons [18]. 3.5. Position Data The report indicates that the main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, suggesting a bearish trend for the main players [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend as there is insufficient fundamental upward momentum. The market is waiting for the first supply - demand report of new cotton crops from USDA on May 13th. It will also focus on the growth of new US cotton crops, US cotton exports, and the international trade environment [24]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. They are affected by weak demand expectations and external market factors. Although the basis is firm due to concentrated spot ownership and downstream rigid demand, the supply side lacks upward drivers due to expected growth in Xinjiang's cotton area and favorable weather. The demand side has limited ability to boost cotton futures, and the external market lacks substantial positive factors [2][24]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.26 | 69.10 | 66.22 | 66.72 | - 1.64 | - 2.40 | 100906 | - 20581 | 105821 | - 1353 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 12870 | 13015 | 12675 | 12950 | 200 | 1.57 | 808084 | 251108 | 574084 | - 6956 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 18840 | 19470 | 18680 | 19220 | 430 | 2.29 | 22251 | 9624 | 22183 | 2470 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Trend**: ICE cotton trended downward in a sideways movement this week, with the old - crop July contract falling more than the new - crop December contract. It was suppressed by a stronger US dollar, uncertainties in US trade relations, and market caution ahead of the China - US talks and the USDA report [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 1st, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 14,900 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 89,600 tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6008 million tons, accounting for 110% of the annual forecasted export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.9202 million tons, accounting for 74% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **Brazil**: April cotton exports are expected to be flat month - on - month. The state of Mato Grosso is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production due to expanded planting area and increased yield per unit. The preliminary April raw cotton export volume was about 239,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from July to April was about 2.55 million tons, an increase from the previous season [9]. - **India**: The market is sluggish. The Cotton Corporation of India offers about 990,000 bales of cotton for sale daily, including about 12,000 bales from the 2023/24 season. The base price of S - 6 remains unchanged [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is weak. Cotton sowing is progressing, with Punjab at 43% completion and Sindh at 27% due to water shortages. Cotton production is temporarily maintained at 7 - 8 million bales [10]. - **Australia**: March cotton exports were at a low level. The long - term forecast from May to July shows a high probability of below - normal precipitation and above - normal temperatures. The March raw cotton export volume was 22,704 tons [12]. - **Bangladesh**: April garment exports decreased significantly month - on - month. Spinning mills'开工 rates are limited by gas supply issues. The April export value of knitted and woven garments was $2.39 billion, and the cumulative export value from July to April increased by 10% year - on - year [13]. - **Turkey**: Domestic demand has declined. Yarn demand has slowed, and spinning mills'开工 rates are about 60%. The March raw cotton import volume was 81,395 tons, and the export volume was 25,039 tons [14]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry**: As of the week of May 9th, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59% respectively [15]. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price**: During the week of May 9th, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly. Spot trading was generally light, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable, with some cotton merchants raising their basis quotes [16]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 9th, there were 11,282 registered warehouse receipts and 853 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,135 receipts, equivalent to 509,670 tons [16]. - **Downstream Market**: The pure - cotton yarn market is entering the traditional off - season, with overall sales slowing down. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and the profit of inland textile enterprises fluctuated around the break - even point. The full - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with prices falling and orders scarce. The operating rate of weaving factories was 46.1%, and the inventory index was 40.8 days [17][18]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, and other aspects [20][21][22][23]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend. Before concerns about new US cotton crops arise and significant changes occur in US trade agreements, it will continue to move sideways. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, the operating rates of textile enterprises, and finished - product inventories [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Views - The textile industry's prosperity index rebounded above the 52.47% boom-bust line in March. The ICAC's May report predicts an increase in production and a slight increase in consumption compared to the previous month, which is bearish. China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year in March. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.31 million tons for the 24/25 season, which is bearish [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,135 and a basis of 1,235 (for the 09 contract) indicates a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is near the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. - Domestic cotton has entered the off-season for consumption, and the spot market is relatively quiet. There are rumors about Sino-US negotiations, along with interest rate and reserve requirement cuts, leading to a short-term rebound in futures, but there is significant upward pressure. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,000 in the short term [4]. - Bullish factor: The futures price is close to historical lows. Bearish factors: Decrease in foreign trade orders, increase in inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnation of exports to the US, and the European Union's introduction of import - restricting laws [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No information provided in the content 2.每日提示 - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It points out both bullish and bearish factors and provides a short - term price range prediction for the main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton [4][6]. 3.今日关注 - No information provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - Global cotton supply - demand balance data from USDA shows changes in production, consumption, exports, and ending inventory in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April estimate), China's production is 6.16 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [11][19]. - China's cotton supply - demand balance data shows information such as sown area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, and ending inventory from 2022/23 to 2024/25. The estimated domestic cotton 3128B average price for 2024/25 is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [19]. 5.持仓数据 - No information provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 ICAC:5月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费略增，偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比 增12.4%。3月份我国棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。 农村部4月24/25年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。 偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14100，基差1200（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空 ...

【导语】3月进入传统需求旺季，市场行情也进入由需求驱动的关键期，上半月下游新增订单不及预期，棉纱成交不活跃，棉纺企业对棉花采购持谨慎态度，棉价上涨动能不足，呈现低位震荡走 3月棉花现货价格低位震荡，月均价下跌 3月国内棉花价格波动有限。月初因关税贸易纷争升级，棉价震荡下跌。其中3月3日美国再度对所有中国输美商品加征10%关税，而后中国对原产于美国的棉花加征15%关税，贸易壁垒升级，市 棉花需求不足，利空棉花价格 卓创资讯棉花市场分析师陈彩娟 终端需求不佳，下游织造企业、贸易企业囤货意愿不高，3月纺企新增订单跟进不足，且以小单为主，棉纱成交偏淡，旺季中棉纱库存有所上升，棉纱出货压力比较大，价格难涨，加工利润微薄 国内棉花供应宽松 卓创资讯："金三"需求成色不佳棉价低位震荡 中美互加关税之后，美棉进口成本将明显增加，价格劣势将影响中国进口美棉数量，美棉出口将面临挑战，利空美棉价格，从而给国内棉花市场带来一定压力。但由于中美棉花贸易量将减少，美 综上所述，纱厂新接订单较少，采购棉花较谨慎，3月上旬现货棉花价格有所回调。旺季棉花需求不及预期、供应端偏宽松、美棉销售承压以及新年度棉花种植面积存在增长预期，短期棉花市场 ...