资金扰动，郑棉波动加剧 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2026/1/30 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 资金扰动，郑棉波动加剧 核心观点 临近春节，内地下游开机率稳中下滑、新疆地区开机率持稳；市场波动较大，带动郑棉波动。新年度 面积下降预期及收购成本支撑，下方价格坚挺；纱厂原材料库存高位，内外价差较高限制上方高度。预计 近期震荡为主，关注资金面和宏观面。 巴西棉种植进度加快 根据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB统计，截至1月24日巴西2025/26年度棉花种植完成 60.6%，环比增加24.3个百分点，同比块14.3个百分点。在一茬大豆采收完成，马托格罗索州二茬大豆、棉 花、玉米播种均明显提速。 澳大利亚方面，产量暂未有明显调整预期。据Cotlook评估，因种植面积下降，澳大利亚本季棉花产量 预计保持在440万包（约合100万吨），较上一产季下降约18%。该评估与美农1月供需报告产量及降幅较为 吻合。 截止1月22日当周，本年度美棉累计签约出口177.22万吨，占年度预测总出口量的68%，周环比增加2 个百年分点，较过去三年同期均值偏慢15个百分点；累计装运85.2 ...

北京时间1月26日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格震荡下行，开盘报63.84美分/磅，现报63.80美分/ 磅，跌幅0.06%，盘中最高触及64.06美分/磅，最低下探63.78美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月23日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 63.90 64.15 63.57 63.97 0.03% 【棉花市场消息速递】 调研显示，截止至1月22日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加6.31%，总库存47.52万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓41.1万吨，同比减少7.35%。 据外媒报道，巴西棉花生产者协会(ABRAPA)在报告中称，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植面积预计较上年下 滑5.5%，至205.2万公顷。ABRAPA预估单产将下降4.7%，至每公顷1866千克。本年度收成预估为382.9 万吨皮棉，较上年度下滑9.9%。在对2025/26年度作物的第四次调查中，巴西全国供应公司(CONAB)预 估种植面积将下滑2.8%，至202.6万公顷，皮棉收成料下滑6.3%，至381.8万吨。 美国农业部：截至1月15日当周，美 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 23 日星期五 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 63.88 | 跌 | 42 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 跌 | 43 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.97 | 跌 | 43 | 点；成 | 交约 | 5.8 | 万手。 | | 郑棉总成交 | 395 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The ICE cotton futures showed a minor fluctuation, rising first and then falling. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season initially boosted the ICE cotton price, but the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market hindered further upward movement. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, and it is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation [1][4][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 64.47, the highest was 65.25, the lowest was 64.47, the closing price was 64.62, with a gain of 0.14 and a gain rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 118,736 lots, a decrease of 33,936 lots, and the open interest was 174,114 lots, an increase of 3,066 lots. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 14,680, the highest was 14,890, the lowest was 14,430, the closing price was 14,590, with a loss of 85 and a loss rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 2,143,790 lots, a decrease of 522,972 lots, and the open interest was 822,611 lots, a decrease of 26,375 lots. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: The opening price was 20,710, the highest was 20,890, the lowest was 20,460, the closing price was 20,535, with a loss of 155 and a loss rate of 0.75%. The trading volume was 42,364 lots, a decrease of 14,878 lots, and the open interest was 15,215 lots, a decrease of 1,601 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell this week with minor fluctuations. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season on Monday strengthened the ICE cotton price, but it failed to continue rising due to the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market [4] - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the USDA reduced the US cotton planting area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the 2025/26 season. The production was cut by 350,000 bales to 13.92 million bales, and the ending stocks were reduced by 300,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the USDA first cut the global beginning stocks in the 2025/26 season by 950,000 bales, mainly reducing India's stocks by 800,000 bales. It also increased the global cotton production by 360,000 bales, with China's production up by 1 million bales and India, the US, and Turkey's production down by 500,000 bales, 350,000 bales, and 200,000 bales respectively. The global cotton consumption was increased by 310,000 bales, with China's consumption up by 500,000 bales and Turkey's down by 100,000 bales. After these adjustments, the global ending stocks in 2025/26 were reduced by 1.49 million bales to 74.48 million bales [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending January 8, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a 247% increase compared to the previous week and an 89% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam signed 28,900 tons, and China 13,000 tons. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 2,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,400 tons, a 1% increase compared to the previous week and an 8% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam shipped 12,700 tons, and Pakistan 5,600 tons. The total signing and sales volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [5] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The Cotton Association of India increased the production and ending stocks forecasts in the 2025/26 season. The production forecast was raised by 750,000 bales to 31.7 million bales, the consumption forecast was increased by 1 million bales to 30.5 million bales, the import volume forecast remained at 5 million bales, and the export volume forecast was reduced by 300,000 bales to 1.5 million bales. The ending stocks were expected to increase by 4.7 million bales to 10.759 million bales. As of the end of December, the cumulative new - cotton listing volume was 15.519 million bales [6] - Brazil: The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the 2026 cotton production forecast by about 141,000 tons to 3.82 million tons, mainly due to a slight reduction in the assessment of the planting area. In Mato Grosso, the second - crop cotton has started small - scale sowing, and the first - crop cotton sown in December last year is growing well. In Bahia, about 70% of the dry - land cotton fields in the state have completed sowing, and the sowing of irrigated cotton fields is in progress [6] - Australia: The cotton - growing areas have been hot and dry recently. The 11 - month raw cotton export volume was 131,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decline but a 36% year - on - year increase. China was the main destination, accounting for 25%, followed by Vietnam with 22% and India with 20%. In the first four months of this international quarter, the cumulative export volume was 677,000 tons, higher than 609,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season. China's share in the cumulative export volume increased to 31% (28% in the same period last year), India's share rose to 23% (13% in the same period last year), and Vietnam's share decreased to 18% (27% in the same period last year) [7] - Pakistan: The cotton import demand has recovered. The final cotton production forecast for this season is 7 - 7.25 million bales. The cotton import transactions were mild this week. As the domestic cotton price rose steadily, some spinning mills began to shift their procurement focus to the international market, and some enterprises have started to make early arrangements to ensure raw material demand in the second quarter of next year. The business with China, the core export market, is progressing normally, and Chinese buyers are willing to accept a small price increase recently [7] - Bangladesh: The country plans to increase cotton imports. The import demand in the market was mild this week. Some spinning mills plan to expand raw material procurement to lock in costs as the US cotton futures price rose slightly and the domestic yarn market improved. A proposal to levy a 20% tariff on imported yarn to protect local spinning enterprises has been opposed by clothing manufacturers. The relevant consultation is still ongoing, and some observers believe it is difficult to reach a conclusion before the general election planned for February next year. The country is conducting trade negotiations with the US to expand its market share in the US, which may bring benefits to the local textile industry. In addition, the Central Bank of Bangladesh has introduced a new export cash incentive policy. The cotton import volume in December was 113,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease. Brazil was the largest supplier, accounting for 36%, and the African Franc Zone accounted for 24%. In the first five months of this season, the cumulative cotton import volume was 630,000 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. The African Franc Zone and Brazil each accounted for 26%, and Australia and India each accounted for 15% [8] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending January 16, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67.8%, 62.9%, and 66.2% respectively, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [9] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Price and Trading: In the week ending January 16, the domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the overall price center slightly moving down. The cotton spot trading was better than last week, especially on January 12. After the low - basis cotton spot was gradually traded last week and early this week, some cotton merchants slightly increased the sales basis of cotton spot by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, but there were still some low - basis situations locally [10] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of January 16, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 9,666, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 883, totaling 10,549, equivalent to 443,058 tons. Among them, there were 217 registered warehouse receipts for domestic - produced cotton in the 2025/26 season and 9,449 for Xinjiang cotton (including 1,058 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,084 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 7,307 in inland warehouses) [10] - Spinning Mills and Weaving Mills: The situation of spinning mills was differentiated, and that of weaving mills was still general. In the pure - cotton yarn market, the low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) and conventional varieties were weak due to insufficient new orders, while the combed high - count yarn orders were continuously good, and some spinning mills' orders had reached March. The traceable yarn received a new wave of orders, and the import yarn's outer - market price trended strongly, with the domestic - market spot following the increase, and the price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed. The downstream orders improved slightly this week, but the weaving mills' comprehensive inventory was higher than in previous years, so they mainly consumed the previous inventory, and the restocking orders were limited. The startup rate of inland spinning mills decreased slightly this week, and most spinning mills offered discounts to avoid inventory accumulation. Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a high startup rate, with hot orders and large profit margins, and the prices of some spinning mills did not increase significantly. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning mills was a loss of about 350 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning mills was about 75 yuan/ton, both showing improvement compared to last week. The all - cotton grey fabric market was mainly for pre - holiday restocking, with a partial restocking market continuing but overall trading being dull. The production of some local weaving mills increased, and the startup rate recovered slightly, but the overall startup rate was low. The weaving mills' sales were not as good as in the same period of previous years, and the inventory decreased slowly. The order increment of weaving mills was small, mainly small and scattered orders, and large orders were rare. The order processing fees of weaving mills were difficult to increase, and the weaving mills maintained losses. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market and adopted a wait - and - see attitude, while a few manufacturers thought the post - holiday market might improve slightly [11][12] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and the global cotton ending stocks in the 2025/26 season in the monthly supply - demand report further strengthened the support for the ICE cotton at the level of 63 - 64 cents/pound. However, affected by the回调 of the Chinese cotton price and the strengthening US dollar, the ICE cotton futures failed to continue rising and still lacked substantial fundamental drivers. The market continued to focus on the new - season cotton sowing situation in Brazil and US cotton exports. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. Currently, the domestic cotton supply is still sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. Spinning mills have high raw material inventories, and weaving mills have completed a round of restocking, so the downstream has no intention to chase high prices in the short term. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has also raised concerns about the increase in imported cotton and yarn. In addition, the market's expectation of a decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 has been fully traded for the time being due to the lack of further details and the long time until next year's sowing. It is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, waiting for the determination of phased support [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were relatively stable, with the annual export value of $293.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, better than expected. The ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Wednesday. In the domestic market, the national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, and inventory continues to rise. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than previous years, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. The expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent, but recently, the external macro - environment has weakened, and cotton prices have adjusted accordingly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 174,613 lots, up 2,644 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 835,832 lots, down 6,537 lots; cotton warehouse receipts: 9,329 lots, up 493 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,972 yuan/ton. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,665 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,721 lots, up 1 lot; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 15,580 lots, down 176 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,634 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,010 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,754 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,418 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,328 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; imported cotton profit: 2,218 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days; monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: $115,936,860, up $5,902,055.7; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: $122,757,331,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.24%, down 0.25%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.8%, down 0.18% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have stabilized, and the USDA monthly report supports the operation of US cotton futures prices. The main 03 contract settled at 64.88 cents, up 0.05%. There is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton. The decline in cotton planting area and the expectation of tight balance continue to dominate the market trend. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton stimulates the import of foreign cotton and yarn to ease the supply shortage, but the overall bullish thinking remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.88, down 3 points; 5 - month at 66.41, down 3 points; 7 - month at 67.86, unchanged; trading volume was about 58,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 710,353, and the open interest was 1,201,677. The settlement prices were 14,850 for January, 14,765 for May, and 14,920 for September [2] Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2] - As of January 10, the net signed export of Egyptian cotton was 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). The new contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average transaction price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2] - Recently, the weather in Pakistan's cotton - growing areas has been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1085,000 - 1,124,000 tons. The transaction price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 - 8,200 rupees/40 kilograms depending on quality [2] - According to the USDA's January US cotton supply - demand forecast report, in 2025/26, the US cotton planting area is 5.6345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. The harvest area increased to 4.7376 million mu, an increase of 264,700 mu. The yield per unit area is expected to be 64 kg/mu, a decrease of 5.5 kg/mu. The production is expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The consumption is expected to be 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9%. The export volume is expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2] Trading Strategy - Build long positions below 14,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and take profit at 15,000 yuan/ton [2]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou Cotton futures fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot firm-price quotes were lowered, and the basis was temporarily stable. [7] - The pure cotton yarn market had average trading volume, with few new orders. Traders and downstream weavers made purchases based on rigid demand, with a cautious attitude. The pure cotton yarn price quote remained stable, but the transaction focus declined, and some spinning mills sold at a discount. Recently, the sales of low-count yarns improved slightly, with increased demand for 21S and 26S. [7] - The overall trading volume in the all-cotton grey fabric market remained dull. Some regions started pre-festival replenishment, but the volume was still small. [7] Overseas Market - In the USDA monthly report, the 2025/26 US cotton production was revised down by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons, and the global cotton production was revised down by 80,000 tons to 26 million tons compared to December. The global cotton consumption was revised up by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons, which was relatively positive. The supply-demand contradiction in the international market was not prominent. [8] - The net long position of CFTC US cotton funds continued to rise, and the external market trend improved. Attention should be paid to the subsequent signing and export performance. [8] Domestic Market - The domestic fundamentals remained the same, with no significant changes in the short term. Cotton prices fluctuated greatly recently. Spinning mills and traders made purchases at low prices, and yarn prices remained basically stable. Manufacturers sold at appropriate prices. Attention should be paid to whether there would be phased replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Outlook - In the short term, Zhengzhou Cotton futures would fluctuate widely and adjust, waiting for new drivers. In the long term, the upward trend remained unchanged. [8] 2. Industry News USDA January Supply and Demand Report - The expected US cotton planting area for 2025/26 in January was 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 20,000 acres compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton harvest area for 2025/26 in January was 7.8 million acres, an increase of 430,000 acres compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton yield per acre for 2025/26 in January was 856 pounds/acre, a decrease of 73 pounds/acre compared to December. [9] - The expected US cotton production for 2025/26 in January was 13.92 million bales, a decrease of 350,000 bales compared to December. [9] - The expected total US cotton supply for 2025/26 in January was 17.92 million bales, a decrease of 350,000 bales compared to December. [9] - The expected total US cotton consumption for 2025/26 in January was 13.8 million bales, the same as in December. [10] - The expected US cotton ending inventory for 2025/26 in January was 4.2 million bales, a decrease of 300,000 bales compared to December. [10] US Cotton Inspection Progress - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 9% slower year-on-year. [10] - The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.703 million tons, with an inspection progress of 89.37%, down 9% year-on-year. The inspection volume of Pima cotton was 72,900 tons, with an inspection progress of 88.6%, 20% slower year-on-year. [10] - The weekly deliverable ratio was 76.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year-on-year. [10] Brazil Cotton Planting Progress - As of January 10, the cotton planting rate in Brazil was 31.9%, up from 31.2% the previous week, lower than 33.5% in the same period last year and higher than the five-year average of 24.2%. [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provided multiple charts, including the CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee. All data sources were Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][18][19][21][27][29]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton continued its upward trend. After the holiday, with limited changes in the fundamentals and the boost of sentiment in the commodity market, after the short - term speculation on the expected reduction of planting, other positive factors are needed for further support. In January, the pre - Spring Festival restocking situation of downstream enterprises can be observed, with strong pressure at the integer - level resistance levels and a phased convergence space for the internal - external price difference [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 41 - 31 grade/dual 29/less than 3% impurity machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar were mostly above 15,300 yuan on a conditioned weight basis, and above 15,400 yuan in northern Xinjiang. The low basis in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang it was CF05 + 950 and above [7] - **Domestic Yarn and Fabric Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with mainly rigid - demand sales. The prices of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and some manufacturers with low inventory pressure continued to raise prices. The sales in the pure - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with no increase in sales volume and average new order volume [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending December 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27% and a 31% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 31,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4% but an 11% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The application and issuance of China's 1% tariff import quota are about to start, the net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has continued to rise, and the external market has recovered [8] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume in China was 6.5789 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons from the previous day. There is still some upward pressure on the estimated output of the 2025/26 season. The downstream product prices have strengthened steadily following the cotton price. Although the operating rate of the downstream industry has decreased slightly, the finished - product inventory has also decreased, and the overall inventory pressure is not large [8] 3.2 Industry News - India has resumed imposing an 11% tariff on cotton imports since January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply in India and push up the domestic spot price [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, inter - contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]

线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货，部分地区仓库库存小幅下降，整体出库良好，预计全国商业库存仍呈 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 增加之势。不过2026年新疆植棉面积调减预期升温，加之目标价格补贴新周期预期给与托底，短期棉价向 上驱动持续。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14855 | 200 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20875 | 300 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -180066 | -1730 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -2248 | -130 | | | 主力合约持仓量: ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton showed a trend of rising on high volume and then falling back. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market had weak sales [7]. - As of January 4, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 6.5425 million tons, with a potential increase in the 2025/26 output. The downstream product prices followed the cotton price to strengthen steadily, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. After the short - term speculation on the expected reduction in planting, more positive factors were needed to support the price. The upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton rose on high volume and then fell back. The latest grade 328 cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The 2025/26 cotton prices in southern and northern Xinjiang were different, and the basis also varied. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was weak [7]. - Operation Suggestions: In January, attention could be paid to the downstream restocking before the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. 2. Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, 1,094 cotton processing enterprises participated in the inspection. The national cumulative inspection was 6.5425 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.4656 million tons, and the inland was 43,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]