| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月18日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 旅鉄 | 旅跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | | 期分 | Y2605 | 8096 | 8172 | -76 | -0.93% | | | 墓差 | Y2605 | 364 | 338 | 26 | 7.69% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+490 | 01+490 | 0 | ւ | | | 仓单 | | 25964 | 25964 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | | 现价 期价 | 广东24度 P2605 | 8380 8398 | 8430 8 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 "低价"和供应压力之间的拉扯 ---2026 年棉花期货行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：2026 年棉花价格看区间震荡 我们的逻辑： 预计 2025/26 年度国际市场棉花供应宽松。在中国和巴西棉花产量连续第二年大幅增长的背景下，2025/26 年度全球棉花产量预计将维持在偏高水平，主要出口国的棉花供应预期保持稳定，巴西和美国的出口压力较大。 而全球经济和贸易形势仍然比较复杂、原油价格偏弱，国际市场的棉花的终端需求和直接需求目前仍不乐观。 预计 2025/26 年度中国棉花供需双强。新疆棉花产量连续第二年大幅增长奠定了国内棉花供应充足的基 础。国内纺织继续新增产能并投入生产预计将支撑国内棉花的直接需求。不过，需要注意终端消费情况、纺织 企业利润和库存情况对棉花需求的影响，另外关注阶段性的市场预期的变化和交割博弈的影响。 国际和国内棉花供应都比较充足，国内外棉花价格仍然缺乏上涨驱动，不过，从成本角度来看，国内外棉 花价格下行的空间或都比较有限，预计内外盘棉花期货将延续 2025 年的区间震荡的走势。国际 ...

2026 年度资源品策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度资源品策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 白糖：全球供应充裕 价格重心继续小幅下移 3 | | --- | | 棉花：需求有韧性，价格有支撑 24 | | 尿素：过往已矣，静待政策东风 44 | | 纯碱玻璃：筑底路漫漫，底部何所依？ 61 | 2026 年度资源品策略报告 白糖：全球供应充裕 价格重心继续小幅下移 资源品研究总监：张笑金 年报摘要： ⚫ 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年受全球进入到丰产周期抑制，原糖期价震荡下行，全年期价 跌幅 21.62%。郑糖期价先升后降，全年主力合约期价波动区间在 5330- 6200 元/吨，全年跌幅 9.41%。 ⚫ 2026 年市场分析逻辑 2025/26 榨季全球食糖供应充裕；消费方面表现平平；库存端因巴西、 印度乙醇政策的推进，食糖库存并未因甘蔗丰产而显现过大的压力；变 数在于巴西 2026/27 榨季的产量增幅问题。 价格方面因总供应充裕，原糖价格预计仍以中低价位运行为主，上 方压力来自于印度出口边界 19-2 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has a sufficient supply as the current inspection volume of new - cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB exports and more imports than exports at ports. As of December 4th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week, reaching a total of 387,600 tons, a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market. Overall, the demand margin is improving and the price center may continue to rise [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 155,603 lots, down 19,526 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 506 lots, down 256 lots. The main contract holding volume for cotton was 443,647 lots, down 30,671 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 20,500 lots, up 2,442 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 2,967 sheets, down 3 sheets; for cotton yarn, it was 12 sheets, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,800 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The 1% tariff - included China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM was 12,846 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the sliding - duty price was 13,873 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,038 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,211 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) was 5,787 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; for cotton yarn, it was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The daily profit from importing cotton was 1,131 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn was 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; for grey cloth, it was 31.97 days, up 0.85 days. The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; for yarn, it was 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 dollars, down 14,497,665,700 dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 112,584,189,200 dollars, down 7,080,970,800 dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.96%, up 2.38%; for at - the - money put options, it was also 13.96%, up 2.38%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.42%, down 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From December 1st to 7th, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.13 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of hand - picked cotton was 6.6 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and up 0.02 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable at 6.86 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the March cotton futures contract up 0.26 cents, or 0.41%, at 64.12 cents per pound [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-26 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 棉价震荡偏上运行为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13625 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20070 | 5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -100315 | -2989 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -854 | 95 | | | 主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support from commercial buyers due to sufficient global cotton supply and increased concerns about US cotton supply pressure after the USDA's upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [1][4][18] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Although there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices at present, the high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures. Attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][18] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.76 | 65.96 | 63.72 | 64.14 | 0.59 | 0.93 | 214712 | 43347 | 155968 | 25922 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13570 | 13620 | 13435 | 13450 | - 130 | - 0.96 | 897294 | - 69357 | 556440 | - 19839 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19850 | 19930 | 19685 | 19695 | - 155 | - 0.78 | 66005 | 8241 | 23504 | - 1538 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton hit a six - month low this week. The global cotton supply is sufficient, and the import demand of major textile countries remains weak. After the USDA released a new monthly supply - demand report, ICE cotton fell below the October low due to the upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [4] - In the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the US cotton production was increased by 900,000 bales to 14.12 million bales, exports were increased by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks were increased by 700,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with the stock - to - use ratio rising to 30.9%. Globally, the 2025/26 cotton production was increased by 2.4 million bales to 120.08 million bales, mainly in China, the US, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was basically unchanged, and ending stocks were increased by 2.79 million bales to 75.93 million bales [5] - As of the week ending September 25, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 35,200 tons, a 81% week - on - week increase and a 4% decrease from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 10,000 tons, all from China. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 982,000 tons, accounting for 37% of the annual forecasted total exports, and the cumulative export shipments were 247,900 tons, accounting for 25% of the annual total contracts [6] - In India, the 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decline year - on - year, and it may become a net importer. Production is forecast at 30.5 million bales, consumption at 30 million bales, exports at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales [6] - In Brazil, the 2025/26 cotton production estimate was slightly lowered due to a slight reduction in the planted area estimate. In October, raw cotton exports reached 294,000 tons, a 64% increase from September and a slight increase from the same period in 2024. China and India were the main buyers [7] - In Pakistan, cotton import demand is very limited. Local observers predict cotton production of about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Import demand is mild, and the market activity has not recovered due to sufficient local cotton supply and weak downstream demand [8] - In Bangladesh, cotton import demand is restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit, limited financing channels, competition from low - priced imported yarn from India, and poor yarn sales profitability [8] - In Australia, cotton sowing has ended, and the crop is growing well. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity. In September, raw cotton exports were 175,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year decrease. China was the main destination [9] - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Domestic cotton spot prices have slightly declined, and trading is not very active. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream basis of cotton spot has remained stable, and the number of low - basis spot has decreased with transactions [10] - As of November 14, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 4401 lots, and the reported warehouse receipts were 643 lots, totaling 5044 lots, equivalent to 211,848 tons [11] - The downstream situation is stable but not improving further. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is dull, new orders are weakening, and spinning mills are digesting previous orders. The prices of pure - cotton yarn are mixed, and the spinning mill operating rate has slightly decreased while inventory has slightly increased. The trading in the cotton fabric market is divided, with limited new orders and weakening sales [12][13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., to help analyze the cotton market [15][16][17] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industry drivers are unclear, and cotton futures prices are expected to have limited upward space and fluctuate narrowly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - US cotton prices declined continuously last week, with a closing price of 63.62 cents per pound on Friday, a drop of 2.93%. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2020, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2771 [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,455 to 13,640 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 13,580 yuan per ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 15 yuan or 0.11%. As of November 7, the registered and forecasted warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton totaled 3,858 lots, equivalent to 192,000 tons [10]. - Spot cotton prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a trend of first falling and then rising, ranging from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram, and the new cotton cost provided some support for cotton prices [12]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market 3.2.1 Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [17]. - In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton. Australia and Brazil were the main sources, with Australia supplying 69,900 tons and Brazil 12,300 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - Demand was lower than the same period last year. Domestic demand had no obvious positive factors, while exports improved slightly. Weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly on a wait - and - see basis [26][32]. 3.2.3 Profit - The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 517 - 613 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 989.1 to - 819.7 yuan per ton, showing an improvement compared to last week [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 521,700 tons and 278,800 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [41]. 3.3 International Market - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [43]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of most USDA reports [46].

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the cotton industry. Core Viewpoints - International market: The continuous absence of the Chinese import market has led to weak export demand for US cotton. The large number of unpriced buy orders at historical highs on the ICE market suppresses cotton price increases. In the short - to - medium term, ICE cotton prices are restricted. Although there is an expectation of improving the global inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2025/26 season, the upward push on cotton prices from a slight year - on - year production cut is limited without sufficient consumption support. Considering the relatively low price level and mainstream cost estimates, the downside space is limited, and there is a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center, subject to external macro - factors [3][80]. - Domestic market: In Q4, cotton prices are not optimistic, but caution is needed regarding the downside space. The record - high domestic new cotton production, early inspection and listing progress, weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment in Xinjiang, and cooling of foreign trade "rush to export" all limit cotton prices in the short term. However, in the long run, low commercial inventories and potential restocking demand from downstream textile enterprises and the US clothing market may drive cotton prices to "decline first and then rise," but the improvement in the price center may be conservative, and new - year industrial policies and foreign trade conditions need to be monitored [3][81]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of the Cotton Market in the First Three Quarters - Domestic market: In the first half of 2025, cotton prices showed a weakening trend due to loose supply and demand. The price was affected by Sino - US trade frictions. In the third quarter, prices fluctuated in a large range. Currently, the large supply of new - season cotton and weak downstream demand have led to a continuous decline in prices [9]. - International market: In the first three quarters of 2025, prices fluctuated between 60 - 70 cents per pound, with the amplitude affected by Sino - US trade wars. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persisted, and the large number of unpriced buy orders on the ICE market suppressed prices [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Situation - According to the USDA September report, the global cotton inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 61.6%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. Global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 340,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. Total trade volume is expected to be 9.52 million tons. The global ending inventory is expected to be 15.93 million tons, a four - year low [11][12][13]. - In terms of adjustment expectations, the possibility of a production cut in the 2025/26 global cotton output is low, and it may still see a slight increase. Cotton consumption is positively correlated with global GDP growth, but there is high uncertainty due to factors such as the global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions [17][18]. 2.2 US Market Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 22, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants dropped to 47%, the boll - opening rate was 60%, and the harvesting progress reached 12%. The 2025 US cotton production is expected to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons [24]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative contracted export volume of US cotton for the 2025/2026 season was 925,000 tons, with a slow signing progress. However, there is still some elasticity in exports [27]. 2.3 Brazilian Market Supply and Demand Situation - Brazil's new cotton harvest is almost complete. The 2024/25 (corresponding to USDA's 2025/26) cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The export expectation is as high as 3.11 million tons, but the export volume in August 2025 was lower than in previous years [30]. Chapter 3: Domestic Cotton Market Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the Agricultural Rural Ministry and USDA data, there is a clear expectation of a bumper harvest in China's new cotton season in 2025/26. There is a view that consumption will weaken year - on - year. There are differences in the ending inventory expectations between the two institutions, but both expect a narrowing of the supply - demand gap compared to previous years [32][33]. 3.2 New - Season Planting - The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The national harvest progress as of the end of September was 1.5%, slightly faster than the same period last year. The large - scale harvest is expected to start in early October, and the peak listing time is postponed to late October. The expected opening price of seed cotton is low due to factors such as strong harvest expectations, low cottonseed prices, and weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment [36][39]. 3.3 Import Scale - In August 2025, China imported about 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 40%. From January to August, the total import volume was about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. The total import volume of cotton resources from January to August was only 44.76% of the same period in 2024. Future imports are expected to increase slightly but will still be limited [42][43]. 3.4 Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventories - As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased to 1.2718 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased to 649,800 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.1481 million tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity was about 120,000 tons, all lower than the same period last year. The inventory of downstream finished products is slightly lower than the same period, and enterprises have no obvious intention to stockpile [50][53]. 3.5 Downstream Startup and Order Situation - As of September 30, the spinning mill startup rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill startup rate was 37.8%, both lower than the same period last year. The order days of spinning enterprises were 15.42 days, also lower than the same period. Spinning profits vary greatly across varieties and enterprises, and the clothing and textile industry is facing intensified losses [56][57]. 3.6 Domestic Retail and Regional Transactions - In August, the retail sales of clothing - related enterprises showed a mild recovery, but the growth rate was lower than that of gold and silver jewelry and the overall social retail level. The transaction volume of cotton cloth in the light - textile market increased seasonally but was lower than the same period last year [61][62]. 3.7 Clothing and Textile Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing decreased by 0.2%. In August, exports decreased by 5%. Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN showed different trends. The US clothing market started to restock slightly in the second half of the year, and there is still restocking space subject to Sino - US trade policies [68][72][76]. 3.8 Competitor Prices - The price difference between cotton yarn and staple fiber is at a medium - to - low level and shows a weak trend. The cotton market does not follow the chemical fiber market closely. In the long run, chemical fiber raw materials will continue to replace cotton [78]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook - International market: Short - to - medium - term ICE cotton prices are restricted, with limited downside space and a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center [80]. - Domestic market: Cotton prices are under pressure in Q4 but may "decline first and then rise" in the long run, with conservative expectations for the improvement in the price center [81].