交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（2.2-2.6） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 本周回顾： 本周棉花走势平缓，在14500上方横盘整理，年前预计变化不大。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美元，同比下降 7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。农村 部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花主力05继续在14500附近横盘整理，春节长假即将到来，节前规避风险，建议减持仓位。 短期14500-15000区间震荡为主。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures are under pressure in the near - term, lacking upward drivers. It's necessary to wait for a phased support level. The domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a sideways trend before the Spring Festival, and investors are advised to hold positions cautiously during the holiday [1][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: opening price 62.97, highest price 63.21, lowest price 60.90, closing price 61.07, down 2.04, down 3.23%, trading volume 202,464 lots, volume change 25,620 lots, open interest 154,685 lots, open interest change - 23,301 lots - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opening price 14,660, highest price 14,780, lowest price 14,500, closing price 14,580, down 90, down 0.61%, trading volume 1,608,018 lots, volume change - 563,083 lots, open interest 700,974 lots, open interest change - 52,304 lots - Cotton yarn main contract: opening price 20,475, highest price 20,630, lowest price 20,340, closing price 20,405, down 90, down 0.44%, trading volume 29,019 lots, volume change - 27,746 lots, open interest 11,165 lots, open interest change 5,276 lots [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: pressured by a significant increase in warehouse receipts, also affected by a stronger US dollar and a decline in risk appetite in the commodity market. The weekly US cotton export data is okay, but it's not enough to make the USDA adjust its annual export forecast, so the next USDA monthly supply - demand report is expected to have little change. As of the week of January 29, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 56,700 tons, up 23% month - on - month and down 5% from the four - week average; 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 26,100 tons; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 53,400 tons, down 8% month - on - month and up 25% from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.8296 million tons, accounting for 70% of the annual forecasted total export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 906,100 tons, accounting for 50% of the total annual contract volume [5] - India: reached a tax - reduction agreement with the US. The US reduced the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and removed the additional 25% tariff related to the purchase of Russian oil. India promised to stop purchasing Russian oil, reduce trade barriers for US goods, and increase imports from the US [6] - Brazil: cotton sowing progress is normal, and exports decreased in January. As of the week of January 30, the sowing progress in Mato Grosso state reached about 68% of the planned total area, up nearly 20 percentage points. The IMEA predicts that the state's output this year will be 2.56 million tons, a decrease of about 15% from the previous season; the planting area is 1.42 million hectares, a decrease of 8%. In January 2026, Brazilian cotton exports were 317,000 tons, a 30% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year decrease. The top three importers were China (115,000 tons), Turkey (50,000 tons), and Bangladesh (46,000 tons) [7] - Pakistan: the demand for cotton imports is moderately released. The domestic cotton market trading has slowed down, and textile enterprises reject the price increase requirements of ginning mills. The focus has shifted to the preparation for new cotton planting. The cotton planting intention in Sindh province is significantly higher than that in Punjab province. Textile enterprises' purchases are mainly to meet the raw material needs in the second quarter, and they are picky in procurement [8] - Bangladesh: is conducting trade negotiations with the US and the EU. The textile mill association postponed the plan to suspend spinning production. The government needs 10 working days to evaluate solutions. The country is facing competition from India's trade agreement with the EU, and the strike in Chittagong has caused delays in customs clearance [9] - Turkey: textile mills are in poor operating conditions, and clothing exports have decreased. Textile mills face low income, high operating costs, and difficult financing. The knitting industry's operating rate is about 50%, and the denim industry's orders are stable but prices have not recovered. In December, raw cotton imports were about 69,000 tons, up 20% from November and 7% from the same period last year. In December, exports were 22,000 tons, basically the same as in November and down 39% from the same period last year. In December, the export value of knitted and woven clothing was $1.26 billion, down 4% from November and the same as the same period last year [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: as of the week of February 6, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 69.5%, Vietnam's was 68.5%, and Pakistan's was 69.5% [11] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices and transactions are basically stable. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices declined slightly. Low - basis spot locked - basis transactions were still relatively good, and some locked - basis spot had phased price - fixing after the decline of Zhengzhou cotton. The basis of cotton spot sales has slightly increased. As of February 6, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 10,575, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 1,185, totaling 11,760, equivalent to 493,920 tons [12] - Spinning mills are divided, and weaving enterprises are still in a general situation. The sales of pure cotton yarn are divided. Xinjiang spinning mills will maintain production during the Spring Festival, with high operating rates, and the 40S and above varieties sell well. Inland spinning mills are finishing work, with a decline in operating rates and an increase in inventory. The price of pure cotton yarn is basically stable. The all - cotton grey fabric market sales are coming to an end, with a decrease in production and operating rates. After the Spring Festival, orders can maintain short - term production, and weaving factories make just - in - time raw material inventory [13][14] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, weaving mill yarn inventory, etc. [15][16][17][18] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are under pressure in the short - term, and it's necessary to wait for a phased support level. Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a sideways trend before the Spring Festival, and investors are advised to hold positions cautiously during the holiday [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, non - ferrous metals led by precious metals and energy chemicals fluctuated, driving Zhengzhou cotton prices up and down. Zhengzhou cotton showed obvious resistance to decline during the general commodity price drop [5]. - There are no significant changes in the industrial aspect. The operating rate and finished - product inventory are steadily declining. The firm spot basis strongly supports cotton prices, while the high domestic - foreign price gap limits the upside. Overall, the upward and downward driving forces in the industrial aspect are both weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - Attention should be paid to the macro - situation, especially the trade agreement between the US and India reached on February 2nd. The US will reduce the "reciprocal tariff" on India from 25% to 18%, and India will correspondingly reduce tariffs and non - tariff barriers on the US to zero, and promise to buy over $500 billion worth of US energy products, and may also buy oil from Venezuela. Indian officials confirmed that they will buy $500 billion worth of US goods in the next five years, and the US will revoke the 25% tariff on India [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Cotton Situation - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9618 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, with the total volume 6% lower than the same period last year. According to the January USDA supply - demand report, this year's US cotton output decreased by 3.4% year - on - year, and there is little room for output adjustment [7]. - As of the week of January 22, the weekly signing volume of US upland cotton in 2025/26 was 46,200 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week, a 17% decrease from the four - week average, and a 42% decrease year - on - year. Among them, Pakistan signed 11,800 tons and Vietnam 10,300 tons [27]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - As of January 29, the national new cotton sales rate was 64.9%, 22.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 27 percentage points faster than the average of the past four years. Supported by factors such as the fast sales progress of lint cotton and the expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year, the spot sales basis is firm [8]. - Since mid - to - late January, ICE US cotton prices have significantly declined. Meanwhile, domestic Zhengzhou cotton has fluctuated within a range, further expanding the domestic - foreign cotton price gap. As of Wednesday this week, the price gap between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty exceeded 3,600 yuan/ton, and the gap under the 1% tariff was about 2,400 yuan/ton. The high price gap limits the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - As of February 2, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 7.29 million tons, a 14.1% increase year - on - year [44]. 3.3 Price and Basis - As of Wednesday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index increased by [missing value] yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract increased by [missing value] yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis between them expanded by [missing value] yuan/ton week - on - week. The C32S yarn price index increased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract increased by - 110 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis between them expanded by 170 yuan/ton week - on - week [56][57]. - On Wednesday this week, the price gap between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased by 214 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the gap under the 1% tariff increased by 156 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price gap between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased by 31 yuan/ton week - on - week [61]. - On Wednesday this week, on the futures market, the price gap between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 5,915 yuan/ton, expanding by 130 yuan/ton week - on - week. The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 1,827 yuan/ton, and the loss margin narrowed by 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [65]. 3.4 Inventory and Position - As of Wednesday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 11,807; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 7 [75].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花冲高回落，继续在14500-15000区间震荡。春节假期临近，下游工厂补库谨慎，棉花 价格上冲动力减弱。短期继续维持震荡整理。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下 降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。 农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。 棉花主力05上方15000关口压力较大，短期预计在14500-15000区间震荡，夹板思路操作。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream enterprises in inland China has declined steadily, while that in Xinjiang has remained stable; large market fluctuations have driven the fluctuations of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The expected decline in the planting area in the new season and the acquisition cost support the lower price level, while the high raw material inventory of yarn mills and the high internal - external price difference limit the upside potential. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the near term, and attention should be paid to the capital and macro - economic aspects [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Cotton Production - As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Mato Grosso, the sowing of second - crop soybeans, cotton, and corn has accelerated after the first - crop soybean harvest. In Australia, the production is not expected to change significantly. The estimated cotton production this season is about 1 million tons (4.4 million bales), an 18% decrease from the previous season, consistent with the USDA's January supply - demand report [5] Domestic Cotton Inspection and Sales - As of January 28, the national lint inspection volume was 7.2127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. As of January 22, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 62.7%, a year - on - year increase of 24.1 percentage points and 28.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [6] US Cotton Export and Trade Agreement - As of the week ending January 22, the cumulative contracted exports of US cotton this year were 1.7722 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual forecasted total exports, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points, and 15 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. The cumulative shipments were 0.8522 million tons, accounting for 48% of the total contracted volume, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and 5 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years. In the week ending January 22, the weekly contracted volume of US upland cotton in 2025/26 was 46,200 tons, a 51% week - on - week decrease, mainly due to the decline in Vietnam's orders. The weekly export shipment volume was 1,015 tons, a 35% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the accelerated shipments in Southeast Asian countries. On January 27, India and the EU officially reached a trade agreement, which will eliminate the import tariffs on Indian textiles and clothing exported to the EU, with the highest tariff currently at 12%. This may enhance the price competitiveness of Indian textiles in the European market and lead to more direct competition for market share with China [7] Price Trends - From January 22 to January 29, 2026, the price of the ZCE cotton active contract increased from 14,730 yuan/ton to 14,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton, while the ICE active contract price decreased from 63.91 cents/pound to 63.46 cents/pound, a drop of 0.45 cents/pound [8] - The prices of imported cotton yarn at port pick - up points increased. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased from 21,480 yuan/ton to 21,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnam C32S increased from 21,480 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan/ton; and the price of Indonesian C32S increased from 21,080 yuan/ton to 21,100 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton [11] - The import prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M cotton decreased. The price of US EMOT M decreased from 74.10 cents/pound to 73.70 cents/pound, and the price of Brazilian M decreased from 71.30 cents/pound to 71.20 cents/pound [12] Inventory and Import and Export - As of the week ending January 22, the weekly contracted volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 46,200 tons, a 51% week - on - week decrease, a 17% decrease from the four - week average, and a 42% year - on - year decrease. Among them, Pakistan contracted 11,800 tons, and Vietnam contracted 10,300 tons [19] - As of January 28, the 2025/26 cotton inspection volume was 7.213 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86% [33] - As of this Thursday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 11,315, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 7 [54]

北京时间1月26日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格震荡下行，开盘报63.84美分/磅，现报63.80美分/ 磅，跌幅0.06%，盘中最高触及64.06美分/磅，最低下探63.78美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月23日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 63.90 64.15 63.57 63.97 0.03% 【棉花市场消息速递】 调研显示，截止至1月22日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加6.31%，总库存47.52万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓41.1万吨，同比减少7.35%。 据外媒报道，巴西棉花生产者协会(ABRAPA)在报告中称，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植面积预计较上年下 滑5.5%，至205.2万公顷。ABRAPA预估单产将下降4.7%，至每公顷1866千克。本年度收成预估为382.9 万吨皮棉，较上年度下滑9.9%。在对2025/26年度作物的第四次调查中，巴西全国供应公司(CONAB)预 估种植面积将下滑2.8%，至202.6万公顷，皮棉收成料下滑6.3%，至381.8万吨。 美国农业部：截至1月15日当周，美 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 23 日星期五 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 63.88 | 跌 | 42 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 跌 | 43 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.97 | 跌 | 43 | 点；成 | 交约 | 5.8 | 万手。 | | 郑棉总成交 | 395 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The ICE cotton futures showed a minor fluctuation, rising first and then falling. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season initially boosted the ICE cotton price, but the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market hindered further upward movement. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, and it is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation [1][4][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 64.47, the highest was 65.25, the lowest was 64.47, the closing price was 64.62, with a gain of 0.14 and a gain rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 118,736 lots, a decrease of 33,936 lots, and the open interest was 174,114 lots, an increase of 3,066 lots. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 14,680, the highest was 14,890, the lowest was 14,430, the closing price was 14,590, with a loss of 85 and a loss rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 2,143,790 lots, a decrease of 522,972 lots, and the open interest was 822,611 lots, a decrease of 26,375 lots. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: The opening price was 20,710, the highest was 20,890, the lowest was 20,460, the closing price was 20,535, with a loss of 155 and a loss rate of 0.75%. The trading volume was 42,364 lots, a decrease of 14,878 lots, and the open interest was 15,215 lots, a decrease of 1,601 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell this week with minor fluctuations. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season on Monday strengthened the ICE cotton price, but it failed to continue rising due to the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market [4] - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the USDA reduced the US cotton planting area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the 2025/26 season. The production was cut by 350,000 bales to 13.92 million bales, and the ending stocks were reduced by 300,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the USDA first cut the global beginning stocks in the 2025/26 season by 950,000 bales, mainly reducing India's stocks by 800,000 bales. It also increased the global cotton production by 360,000 bales, with China's production up by 1 million bales and India, the US, and Turkey's production down by 500,000 bales, 350,000 bales, and 200,000 bales respectively. The global cotton consumption was increased by 310,000 bales, with China's consumption up by 500,000 bales and Turkey's down by 100,000 bales. After these adjustments, the global ending stocks in 2025/26 were reduced by 1.49 million bales to 74.48 million bales [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending January 8, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a 247% increase compared to the previous week and an 89% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam signed 28,900 tons, and China 13,000 tons. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 2,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,400 tons, a 1% increase compared to the previous week and an 8% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam shipped 12,700 tons, and Pakistan 5,600 tons. The total signing and sales volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [5] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The Cotton Association of India increased the production and ending stocks forecasts in the 2025/26 season. The production forecast was raised by 750,000 bales to 31.7 million bales, the consumption forecast was increased by 1 million bales to 30.5 million bales, the import volume forecast remained at 5 million bales, and the export volume forecast was reduced by 300,000 bales to 1.5 million bales. The ending stocks were expected to increase by 4.7 million bales to 10.759 million bales. As of the end of December, the cumulative new - cotton listing volume was 15.519 million bales [6] - Brazil: The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the 2026 cotton production forecast by about 141,000 tons to 3.82 million tons, mainly due to a slight reduction in the assessment of the planting area. In Mato Grosso, the second - crop cotton has started small - scale sowing, and the first - crop cotton sown in December last year is growing well. In Bahia, about 70% of the dry - land cotton fields in the state have completed sowing, and the sowing of irrigated cotton fields is in progress [6] - Australia: The cotton - growing areas have been hot and dry recently. The 11 - month raw cotton export volume was 131,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decline but a 36% year - on - year increase. China was the main destination, accounting for 25%, followed by Vietnam with 22% and India with 20%. In the first four months of this international quarter, the cumulative export volume was 677,000 tons, higher than 609,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season. China's share in the cumulative export volume increased to 31% (28% in the same period last year), India's share rose to 23% (13% in the same period last year), and Vietnam's share decreased to 18% (27% in the same period last year) [7] - Pakistan: The cotton import demand has recovered. The final cotton production forecast for this season is 7 - 7.25 million bales. The cotton import transactions were mild this week. As the domestic cotton price rose steadily, some spinning mills began to shift their procurement focus to the international market, and some enterprises have started to make early arrangements to ensure raw material demand in the second quarter of next year. The business with China, the core export market, is progressing normally, and Chinese buyers are willing to accept a small price increase recently [7] - Bangladesh: The country plans to increase cotton imports. The import demand in the market was mild this week. Some spinning mills plan to expand raw material procurement to lock in costs as the US cotton futures price rose slightly and the domestic yarn market improved. A proposal to levy a 20% tariff on imported yarn to protect local spinning enterprises has been opposed by clothing manufacturers. The relevant consultation is still ongoing, and some observers believe it is difficult to reach a conclusion before the general election planned for February next year. The country is conducting trade negotiations with the US to expand its market share in the US, which may bring benefits to the local textile industry. In addition, the Central Bank of Bangladesh has introduced a new export cash incentive policy. The cotton import volume in December was 113,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease. Brazil was the largest supplier, accounting for 36%, and the African Franc Zone accounted for 24%. In the first five months of this season, the cumulative cotton import volume was 630,000 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. The African Franc Zone and Brazil each accounted for 26%, and Australia and India each accounted for 15% [8] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending January 16, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67.8%, 62.9%, and 66.2% respectively, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [9] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Price and Trading: In the week ending January 16, the domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the overall price center slightly moving down. The cotton spot trading was better than last week, especially on January 12. After the low - basis cotton spot was gradually traded last week and early this week, some cotton merchants slightly increased the sales basis of cotton spot by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, but there were still some low - basis situations locally [10] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of January 16, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 9,666, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 883, totaling 10,549, equivalent to 443,058 tons. Among them, there were 217 registered warehouse receipts for domestic - produced cotton in the 2025/26 season and 9,449 for Xinjiang cotton (including 1,058 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,084 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 7,307 in inland warehouses) [10] - Spinning Mills and Weaving Mills: The situation of spinning mills was differentiated, and that of weaving mills was still general. In the pure - cotton yarn market, the low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) and conventional varieties were weak due to insufficient new orders, while the combed high - count yarn orders were continuously good, and some spinning mills' orders had reached March. The traceable yarn received a new wave of orders, and the import yarn's outer - market price trended strongly, with the domestic - market spot following the increase, and the price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed. The downstream orders improved slightly this week, but the weaving mills' comprehensive inventory was higher than in previous years, so they mainly consumed the previous inventory, and the restocking orders were limited. The startup rate of inland spinning mills decreased slightly this week, and most spinning mills offered discounts to avoid inventory accumulation. Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a high startup rate, with hot orders and large profit margins, and the prices of some spinning mills did not increase significantly. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning mills was a loss of about 350 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning mills was about 75 yuan/ton, both showing improvement compared to last week. The all - cotton grey fabric market was mainly for pre - holiday restocking, with a partial restocking market continuing but overall trading being dull. The production of some local weaving mills increased, and the startup rate recovered slightly, but the overall startup rate was low. The weaving mills' sales were not as good as in the same period of previous years, and the inventory decreased slowly. The order increment of weaving mills was small, mainly small and scattered orders, and large orders were rare. The order processing fees of weaving mills were difficult to increase, and the weaving mills maintained losses. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market and adopted a wait - and - see attitude, while a few manufacturers thought the post - holiday market might improve slightly [11][12] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and the global cotton ending stocks in the 2025/26 season in the monthly supply - demand report further strengthened the support for the ICE cotton at the level of 63 - 64 cents/pound. However, affected by the回调 of the Chinese cotton price and the strengthening US dollar, the ICE cotton futures failed to continue rising and still lacked substantial fundamental drivers. The market continued to focus on the new - season cotton sowing situation in Brazil and US cotton exports. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. Currently, the domestic cotton supply is still sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. Spinning mills have high raw material inventories, and weaving mills have completed a round of restocking, so the downstream has no intention to chase high prices in the short term. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has also raised concerns about the increase in imported cotton and yarn. In addition, the market's expectation of a decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 has been fully traded for the time being due to the lack of further details and the long time until next year's sowing. It is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, waiting for the determination of phased support [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were relatively stable, with the annual export value of $293.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, better than expected. The ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Wednesday. In the domestic market, the national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, and inventory continues to rise. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than previous years, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. The expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent, but recently, the external macro - environment has weakened, and cotton prices have adjusted accordingly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 174,613 lots, up 2,644 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 835,832 lots, down 6,537 lots; cotton warehouse receipts: 9,329 lots, up 493 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,972 yuan/ton. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,665 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,721 lots, up 1 lot; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 15,580 lots, down 176 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,634 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,010 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,754 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,418 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,328 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; imported cotton profit: 2,218 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days; monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: $115,936,860, up $5,902,055.7; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: $122,757,331,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.24%, down 0.25%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.8%, down 0.18% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have stabilized, and the USDA monthly report supports the operation of US cotton futures prices. The main 03 contract settled at 64.88 cents, up 0.05%. There is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton. The decline in cotton planting area and the expectation of tight balance continue to dominate the market trend. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton stimulates the import of foreign cotton and yarn to ease the supply shortage, but the overall bullish thinking remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.88, down 3 points; 5 - month at 66.41, down 3 points; 7 - month at 67.86, unchanged; trading volume was about 58,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 710,353, and the open interest was 1,201,677. The settlement prices were 14,850 for January, 14,765 for May, and 14,920 for September [2] Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2] - As of January 10, the net signed export of Egyptian cotton was 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). The new contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average transaction price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2] - Recently, the weather in Pakistan's cotton - growing areas has been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1085,000 - 1,124,000 tons. The transaction price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 - 8,200 rupees/40 kilograms depending on quality [2] - According to the USDA's January US cotton supply - demand forecast report, in 2025/26, the US cotton planting area is 5.6345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. The harvest area increased to 4.7376 million mu, an increase of 264,700 mu. The yield per unit area is expected to be 64 kg/mu, a decrease of 5.5 kg/mu. The production is expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The consumption is expected to be 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9%. The export volume is expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2] Trading Strategy - Build long positions below 14,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and take profit at 15,000 yuan/ton [2]