投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 节前情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.48%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而需求表现偏弱，基本面季节性走弱，淡季钢价承 压运行，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关 注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.52%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求表现良好，带来供需格局好转，给予价格支撑，但需求韧 性存疑，且库存水平偏高，上行驱动预计不强 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：博弈降温 区间震荡企稳 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货日内呈现宽幅震荡态势，主力合约收至 121580 元/吨，成交缩至 45.95 万手，持仓量维持 51.13 万手，市场博弈明显降温。 资金面来看，主力净空格局延续，注册仓单持续增加，市场供给预期有所 宽松。现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价与昨日齐平，维持 118000 元/吨 ...

12月31日，商务部等8部门办公厅印发《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》。其中提到，2026年，对 个人消费者通过售卖方式转让登记在本人名下的乘用车，并购买纳入工业和信息化部《减免车辆购置税 的新能源汽车车型目录》的新能源乘用车或2.0升及以下排量燃油的乘用车，给予一次性补贴。对换购 符合上述条件新能源乘用车的，按新车销售价格的8%给予补贴，补贴金额最高1.5万元；对换购符合上 述条件燃油乘用车的，按新车销售价格的6%给予补贴，补贴金额最高1.3万元。 详情如下： 商务部等8部门办公厅关于印发《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》的通知 按照《国家发展改革委 财政部关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（发改 环资〔2025〕1745号，以下简称发改环资〔2025〕1745号文）和《商务部等7部门关于提质增效实施 2026年消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（商消费函〔2025〕697号，以下简称商消费函〔2025〕697号文） 要求，为更好实施2026年汽车以旧换新补贴政策，现将《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》印发给你 们，请认真执行。 商务部办公厅 国家发展改革委办公厅 工业和信息 ...

12月31日，商务部等8部门办公厅印发《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》。其中提到， 2026年，对个人消费者通过售卖方式转让登记在本人名下的乘用车，并购买纳入工业和信息化 部《减免车辆购置税的新能源汽车车型目录》的新能源乘用车或2.0升及以下排量燃油的乘用 车，给予一次性补贴。对换购符合上述条件新能源乘用车的，按新车销售价格的8%给予补 贴，补贴金额最高1.5万元；对换购符合上述条件燃油乘用车的，按新车销售价格的6%给予补 贴，补贴金额最高1.3万元。 详情如下： 商务部等8部门办公厅关于印发《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》的通知 按照《国家发展改革委 财政部关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通 知》（发改环资〔2025〕1745号，以下简称发改环资〔2025〕1745号文）和《商务部等7部门 关于提质增效实施2026年消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（商消费函〔2025〕697号，以下简称 商消费函〔2025〕697号文）要求，为更好实施2026年汽车以旧换新补贴政策，现将《2026年 汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》印发给你们，请认真执行。 商务部办公厅 国家发展改革委办公厅 工业和信 ...

乘用车近期终端需求跟踪及展望 20251229 摘要 2026 年汽车补贴政策预计总额维持 3,000 亿，汽车补贴约 1,000 亿， 以旧换新或要求旧车持有一年以上，以抑制套取补贴行为。预计新能源 车置换补贴 8%，燃油车 6%；新能源车报废补贴 12%，燃油车 10%（2025 年）。 预计 2025 年以旧换新更新量约 750 万台，补贴预算超 800 亿；2024 年约 370 万台，对应 350 亿。2025 年主要为置换补贴，2024 年为报 废补贴。单车平均补贴 2025 年约 11,500 元，2026 年预计持平。 消费者对以旧换新政策有较高预期，补贴金额约占乘用车平均成交价 10 万元的 7%。10 月下旬至 12 月期间，约 2/3 未成交用户等待 2026 年 新政策和更高额度国家支持。 2025 年政策下，20 万元以内汽车可享国家开票价近 8%补贴，影响消 费者购买决策，约 2/3 潜在客户明确表示等待 2026 年补贴更新，尤其 是置换补贴。 预计 2026 年 Q1 新能源汽车市场需求显著增长，新补贴政策或提前落 地，车企和渠道将促销清理库存，预计 1 月销量双位数增长，Q1 ...

据新华社报道，12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议，将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为2026年经济工作重点任务之首，并明确提出优化"两 新"（大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新）政策实施，不过会议并未透露政策的具体实施细则和时间。 商务部数据显示，今年前11个月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，其中汽车"以旧换新"成交量超1120万辆。 "在强劲的'以旧换新'补贴政策支持下，2025年我国汽车'以旧换新'市场规模预计突破1800亿元。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树向记者透露。 12月25日，《每日经济新闻》记者查询广州市商务局官方网站获悉，广州市已对2026年汽车"置换更新"补贴平台服务企业展开遴选工作。 根据《广州市商务局关于公开遴选2026年汽车"置换更新"补贴平台服务企业的通知》，广州市汽车"以旧换新"补贴项目包括汽车"置换更新"和"报废更新"， 入选服务企业的工作任务包括系统开发、资格核验、资金控制、风险管理等。 值得一提的是，为了保障以旧换新市场有序运行，各地遴选工作列出了多项任务要求。如，入选企业需要加强风险监测及管控，还应接受政府部门监督管 理，如实提供系统申报数据，为每名申请 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province's Commerce Department announced adjustments to the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy policy, including the suspension of the vehicle scrapping and updating subsidy policy starting November 13, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Suspension of Subsidy Policy - The automobile scrapping and updating subsidy policy will be suspended from November 13, 2025 [2][3]. - Consumers who obtain a new vehicle sales invoice by November 12, 2025, and meet the subsidy conditions must submit their application by November 15, 2025, at 24:00 [3]. - Applications submitted after the deadline will not be accepted, and those that do not meet the requirements will be returned [3]. Group 2: Adjustments to Subsidy Qualification Voucher Issuance - The method of issuing qualification vouchers will be adjusted to four concentrated batches starting November 15, 2025, with specific issuance times [4]. - The deadline for submitting subsidy applications is extended to December 31, 2025, at 24:00, while the deadline for submitting supplementary application materials is January 20, 2026, at 24:00 [4]. - Failure to submit applications or supplementary materials by the deadlines will result in automatic forfeiture of the application [4].

Core Insights - The narrow passenger car retail market in October is expected to reach approximately 2.2 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [1][3] - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail is projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate anticipated to rise to about 60% [1][3] - The market is entering the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, driven by the National Day holiday's customer attraction effect and year-end policy adjustments [1] Market Performance - In September, the narrow passenger car retail market achieved 2.244 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and a month-on-month growth of 11.2% [2] - NEV retail in September reached 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a month-on-month increase of 16.5%, resulting in a penetration rate of 57.8% [2] Manufacturer Sales Outlook - Most manufacturers maintain an optimistic sales outlook for October, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are largely stable month-on-month [3] - The anticipated retail market size for narrow passenger cars in October is around 2.2 million units, with NEV retail expected to reach 1.32 million units [3] Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% due to the holiday effect [4] - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail to 87,800 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [4] - The overall monthly retail forecast remains at 2.2 million units, with varying weekly performances influenced by holiday dynamics and policy adjustments [4] Market Structure and Consumer Behavior - Post-holiday, there has been a slight seasonal recovery in terminal discounts, indicating a stable overall market operation [5] - As of October 22, 2025, over 10 million applications for the vehicle replacement subsidy have been submitted, significantly impacting the market in the first three quarters [5] - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming decline in NEV purchase tax subsidies, which may drive early purchasing behavior [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the "old-for-new" automobile subsidy policies across various regions in China indicate a strategic pause to manage funding effectively and ensure the sustainability of the program until the end of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Jiangsu Province announced the suspension of its automobile replacement subsidy policy effective from September 28, 2025 [1]. - Ningbo City followed suit, stating that its automobile replacement subsidy policy would be suspended starting October 11, 2025 [1]. - Multiple regions, including Guangxi and Rizhao, have also announced similar suspensions in September, reflecting a trend of local governments pausing subsidy programs [1]. Group 2: Funding and Implementation - The Chinese government has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan in national debt funds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy throughout the year [2]. - As of October, the government plans to distribute the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [2]. - Local governments have previously faced challenges in disbursing subsidies due to funding issues, but these have been resolved with the recent allocations [2]. Group 3: Market Impact - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy has led to a significant increase in automobile consumption, with 8.3 million applications submitted by September 10 this year [4]. - Data indicates that over half of the consumers have benefited from the subsidies, with cumulative passenger car sales reaching 14.765 million units from January to August [4].

Core Points - Jiangsu Province's automobile replacement subsidy policy will be suspended on September 28, 2025, at 24:00 [1] - Consumers who obtained a new vehicle sales invoice between January 1, 2025, and September 28, 2025, and meet the subsidy application criteria will not be affected by the policy change [1] - Applications must be submitted by October 20, 2025, and any modifications to submitted applications must be completed by October 31, 2025, or they will be considered abandoned [1] Subsidy Application Impact - Consumers with new vehicle sales invoices issued before September 28, 2025, will not be affected by the policy change regarding scrapping and updating subsidies [2] - Consumers with invoices issued after September 28, 2025, must follow a "qualify first, then apply for subsidies" approach, with further details to be announced [2] Application Review and Payment - The Jiangsu Province has increased the number of reviewers to expedite the processing of subsidy applications due to a high volume of submissions [2] - All subsidy payments for applications approved by August 3, 2025, have been disbursed, and consumers should verify their bank account details in the application system [2] - For applications approved after August 4, 2025, consumers are advised to wait for funds to be available before payments are issued [2] Consumer Support - Consumers can call a unified customer service hotline for inquiries regarding the automobile replacement policy, application progress, and subsidy disbursement [3] - Local business departments' hotline numbers can also be accessed through the "Su Xin Consumption Jiangsu Consumer Goods Replacement Platform" WeChat mini-program or the Jiangsu Province automobile replacement subsidy application platform [3]