Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of palm oil has improved overall, with production decreasing and exports increasing in August in Malaysia. Indonesia's palm oil production and inventory data also show certain trends. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the overall situation of the three major oils is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies [27][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined. Palm oil futures fell by 2.88%, rapeseed oil by 1.02%, and soybean oil by 1.18%. The spot prices also decreased, with palm oil down 0.40%, rapeseed oil down 0.58%, and soybean oil down 0.94% [2] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of August 28, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 76 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and 118 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 29, the YP spread was - 958 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.5 tons (up 0.05 tons from the previous week), the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 58.21 tons (down 3.52 tons), the national soybean oil mill inventory was 118.60 tons (up 4.33 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.31 tons (up 0.86 tons) [8] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [11] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.80 tons (down 2.8 tons from the previous week), the major oil mill soybean inventory was 682.53 tons (up 2.13 tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (unchanged from the previous week). As of August 29, the soybean crushing profit was - 586.00 yuan/ton (down 19.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [17] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 15 tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2575.00 yuan/ton (up 291.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20] Demand Side - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 2966 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 10000 tons. The POGO spread was 450.99 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [26] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. Foreign: USDA reported that the US soybean yield increased, the sown area decreased, and the production decreased; MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports all changed in July. Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was unchanged, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories were stable. Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean oil inventory increased. Spot: The spot prices of the three major oils all decreased this week [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Palm oil fluctuated weakly at a high level this week, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 9200 - 9650. Medium - and long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and the expected fluctuation range is 9200 - 10000. The focus and risk warnings next week are the US biodiesel policy, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [28][29][30]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025/2026 annual level is a year of increasing supply and demand for oils and fats, making it difficult to have significant supply - demand changes. However, there are usually monthly - level market trends. It may fluctuate downward from June to August due to possible inventory reduction of palm oil in the producing areas but sufficient inventory accumulation expectations in September and October. After October, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biodiesel policy, combined with seasonal palm oil production cuts, may lead to an increase [1][23]. Summary by Related Chapters I. Southeast Asian Palm Oil Production Recovery Suppresses Oil Prices - Since March 2025, the trend of oils and fats has diverged. Palm oil has generally declined due to increased production, while rapeseed oil has fluctuated at a high level due to tight Canadian rapeseed supply. Recently, the overall valuation has been lifted due to the EPA's RVO draft. From March to April, the combined production of CPO + CPKO in Indonesia and CPO in Malaysia was 619.5 and 659.6 million tons respectively, an increase of 90 million tons year - on - year. Although export performance was average during the same period, domestic consumption in the producing areas remained at a high level, so the increase in inventory was limited, and the inventory rose to a relatively low level in recent years by the end of April [3]. - Looking ahead to the next three months in palm oil producing areas, the seasonal production from June to August usually runs steadily, reaches a high in September and October, and gradually declines from November. Since the beginning of this year, domestic consumption in the producing areas has been good, mainly due to the increase in biodiesel usage and a slight increase in edible consumption, which may also maintain a good level from June to August and may increase seasonally after September. It is estimated that the average monthly production from June to September in the producing areas will be 600 - 630 million tons, the average monthly domestic consumption will be about 240 million tons, and the average monthly export volume will be 360 - 390 million tons [1][3]. II. Palm Oil in Malaysia + Indonesia May See a Slight Inventory Reduction from June to September and Enter the Inventory Accumulation Stage after September - Palm oil exports usually increase seasonally from June to October. From January to May 2025, the combined imports of palm oil and palm kernel oil by China and India decreased by about 134 million tons year - on - year, resulting in low domestic oil inventories in India, which may require more palm oil imports to replenish inventory later. Imports from other countries except China and India increased by about 50 million tons. The apparent demand for vegetable oils was slightly weak. India's imported vegetable oil consumption has recently remained at about 120 million tons per month, showing a slight decline. In China, from January to May, among vegetable oil consumption, soybean oil consumption decreased by about 30 million tons year - on - year, rapeseed oil consumption remained flat, and the apparent consumption of palm oil decreased significantly by about 50 million tons. It is estimated that China and India's palm oil imports from June to September will be slightly higher than last year, with an average monthly import of about 110 million tons [11][13]. - In terms of other oils, the exports of soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil are expected to be the same as last year. Due to the increase in domestic consumption in Brazil affected by B15, but with an additional 300 million tons of soybean crushing this year, the export volume is expected to remain at last year's level. Argentina's crushing and exportable volume are usually relatively stable. Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are in a seasonal decline stage. Therefore, before the oilseed harvest season, global palm oil may partially fill the reduction in other oil exports [13]. - Assuming that the global palm oil import demand from other countries except China and India from June to September is about 300 million tons per month on average over the years, the average monthly global palm oil import demand from June to September is expected to be 410 million tons, and the palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to remain stable or see a slight reduction. However, the inventory reduction scenario is limited to a decline in palm oil production in the producing areas. If downstream buying interest remains weak under new situations such as macro - fluctuations and trade wars, the inventory reduction in the producing areas will also be tested. After September, production in the producing areas will further increase, and with the harvest of other oilseeds, the palm oil in the producing areas will enter the inventory accumulation process [13][14]. III. It is Difficult to Have Significant Supply - Demand Changes in Oils and Fats at the Annual Level - Currently, the new - crop Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed and sunflower seeds in Russia and Ukraine, and Australian rapeseed are in the growing stage. The weather for Canadian rapeseed has improved recently after being dry in the early stage. The weather in the sunflower seed - producing areas in Russia and Ukraine is normal. The EU's rapeseed and sunflower seeds are expected to have a restorative increase in production according to the EU report on June 25. Global soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the soybean oil crushing production is expected to increase by 200 million tons year - on - year. Overall, other oils except palm oil are expected to have a combined production increase of 400 - 450 million tons in the 2025/2026 global annual level, with sufficient global oil supply [22]. - On the demand side, the US biodiesel blending draft is expected to bring an incremental industrial demand of about 150 - 200 million tons of oils and fats globally. Brazil's B15 policy may provide an incremental demand of about 50 million tons. Global edible demand is weak under the negative impact of the trade war on the macro - economy, and the annual increase is expected to be less than 250 million tons under normal circumstances. For palm oil, due to good rainfall in 2024, there may be a certain increase in production at the annual level, but the increase is limited due to the relatively old tree age [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the domestic oil market was volatile. At the beginning of the month, oils tumbled due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Then, the market panic eased, and the tightening short - term supply supported the prices. However, with the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the prices fell again at the end of the month. The global oilseed supply is expected to remain loose, while the global vegetable oil market shows a supply - tightening expectation [3][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Futures**: In April, domestic soybean oil futures fell nearly 2%, palm oil futures fell nearly 4%, and rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 10% [3]. - **Registration of Warehouse Receipts**: The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 553 to 4005, palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 0, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 484 to 1357 [10]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: The basis of soybean oil increased by 186 to 440, palm oil increased by 58 to 600, and rapeseed oil increased by 99 to 128 [14]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of April 22, the net long positions of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil managed funds increased by 87066 and 99060 respectively compared with the same period last month [17]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of April 30, 2025, the premium of South American port soybeans decreased by 30 cents/bushel to 145 cents/bushel, and that of the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 10 cents/bushel to 198 cents/bushel [18]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Oilseeds**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production was lowered, trade volume and crushing volume were raised, and ending stocks were increased. The overall supply of oilseeds is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Global Vegetable Oils**: In the 2024/25 season, global vegetable oil production, trade volume, and consumption are all expected to decline, and ending stocks are reduced, showing a supply - tightening expectation [22]. - **Global Three - Major Oils Consumption**: In 2024/25, the biodiesel consumption of the global three - major oils was 53686 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.25%. The edible consumption was 124759 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.31% [25]. 3.2.2 Soybean Supply and Demand - **Global Soybeans**: In 2024/25, global soybean production is expected to be slightly lowered, beginning stocks are significantly raised, and ending stocks are increased by 1.06 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The global soybean crushing volume increased by 2 million tons to 354.8 million tons [28]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the 33rd week of the 2024/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 5.83% year - on - year. In March 2025, US soybean crushing volume decreased by 4.47% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 19.07% year - on - year. As of April 28, 2025, the US soybean sowing rate was 18% [32][35][39][42]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In March 2025, Brazilian soybean exports were 15.7237 million tons, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 3.97% year - on - year. The estimated exports in April were 14.31 million tons [45]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 85.24 million tons, 451 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the reduction in Canadian production. The ending stocks are expected to be 9.018 million tons, 60 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast [48]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 37th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 72% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory decreased by 13.12% year - on - year. As of March 2025, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased by 6.57% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 4.36% year - on - year [53][55]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2024/25, global palm oil production is expected to be 78.229 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3%. Consumption is expected to be 76.953 million tons, 1.215 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with a year - on - year growth of 3.17%. Ending stocks are expected to be 14.786 million tons, 52 thousand tons lower than the previous month's forecast [58][59]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In March 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.38% year - on - year, exports decreased by 24.34% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 8.76% year - on - year [67]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In January 2025, Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory were all lower than the same period last year [71]. 3.2.5 Other Countries' Oil - Related Data - **India**: In March 2025, Indian vegetable oil imports decreased by 15.55% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 28.03% year - on - year [73]. - **China**: In March 2025, China's soybean imports decreased by 36.77% year - on - year, rapeseed imports decreased by 34.46% year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased by 76.88% year - on - year, and palm oil imports increased by 3% year - on - year. As of the 17th week of 2025, the inventory and operating rate of domestic soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil showed different changes [77][82][85][88][93][95][97].