Group 1 - The overall performance of gold this week showed volatility, with a downward trend at the beginning of the week, a significant rise on Wednesday, and fluctuations leading to a small upward close on Friday [2][7] - Economic data indicated a robust foundation, with June retail sales growing by 0.6%, initial jobless claims for the week of July 12 at 221,000, and a slight acceleration in inflation with June CPI rising to 2.7% [3] - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with Trump indicating a potential easing of enforcement against Iran while Iranian-backed militia groups reportedly attacked oil fields in Iraq [4] Group 2 - Next week, the focus will be on central bank dynamics, particularly the Federal Reserve's response to economic data and internal policy disagreements regarding interest rate cuts [5] - Key economic data to watch includes manufacturing and services PMI for the Eurozone and the U.S., which will reflect the impact of trade uncertainties on the economy [5][6] - The technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a corrective phase, with the need to observe the internal structure of the current wave to determine future movements [10][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The week started with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, followed by a rebound on Wednesday and continued upward movement on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a weekly candlestick with a lower shadow [2] - The Trump administration has intensified trade policies, imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on imported copper, which may lead to increased manufacturing costs in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $100.4 billion in May 2024, contributing to uncertainty in trade policies that support gold prices [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% during the June meeting, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood for July is only 15% [3] - Various Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on potential rate cuts, with some supporting a July cut while others remain cautious [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Indicators - The upcoming focus will be on the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a 3.1% year-over-year increase and a 3.4% rise in core CPI, which could influence the likelihood of a July rate cut [4] - Other important economic indicators include retail sales and the preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The current market movement aligns with the expected wave structure, indicating that the second wave's adjustment is concluding, and a third wave structure is anticipated to begin [8] - The focus for the upcoming week will be on confirming the completion of the second wave's three-wave structure before entering the C-3 wave opportunity [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in light of declining interest rates and the need for diversified asset allocation to preserve and grow wealth in an uncertain economic environment [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - Inflation has significantly decreased, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [3]. - The interest rate for one-year deposits at major banks has dropped to 0.9%, resulting in minimal returns for savers [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on four main asset classes: A-shares, gold, domestic bonds, and U.S. bonds, each with distinct risk-return profiles [6]. - A-shares are seen as a representative of domestic equity assets, while gold serves as a recognized hedge against inflation. Domestic bonds are favored for their stability and credit quality, and U.S. bonds are crucial for currency risk hedging [6]. Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The biggest risk for A-shares this year has been the U.S.-China trade tensions, which caused significant market fluctuations, including a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index on April 7 [8][10]. - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance, recent data indicates a recovery in manufacturing PMI and stable export performance, leading to a rebound in A-shares [9][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a bullish phase, but uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of this trend, heavily dependent on economic fundamentals [12]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - The perception of gold has shifted, with recent price volatility reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical events and trade negotiations. Gold prices reached a peak increase of 30% this year, driven by trade tensions [12][14]. - Short-term outlook for gold is cautious, with potential price corrections anticipated due to changing market sentiments and economic indicators in the U.S. [16][17]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by lower returns compared to 2024, with ten-year government bond ETFs showing only a 0.81% increase in the first half of the year [20][23]. - The strategy for bond investments should focus on tactical trading rather than long-term holding, with specific yield thresholds suggested for buying and selling [24]. Group 6: U.S. Bond Market Concerns - The yield on U.S. ten-year bonds has risen above 4.6%, indicating a shift in perception where they are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens [26][27]. - Recent legislative developments regarding stablecoins may provide temporary relief, but they do not address the underlying structural issues facing the U.S. bond market [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a three-day upward trend driven by safe-haven demand and a weak dollar, but faced a pullback due to stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a slight gain [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 111,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This data weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant drop in gold prices on Thursday [2] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy, with a 90-day tariff suspension period ending on July 9, has supported gold as a safe-haven asset while increasing market volatility [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion. This rising sovereign debt diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and supports a long-term upward trend for gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and progress in Iran nuclear negotiations, have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, putting some pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events to watch next week include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on July 8, the release of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes on July 9, and the weekly initial jobless claims data on July 10. These events may provide insights into monetary policy and economic outlook, impacting gold prices [3] - July 9 marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, with ongoing negotiations with major economies like Japan and India progressing slowly. The market anticipates potential threats of increased tariffs to compel concessions from other countries, although an extension of the deadline is also likely [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend this week, closing with a bullish candlestick, aligning with the expectation of a near-term bottom and subsequent rebound [4] - The current market is in a corrective phase following a rise from a low of 3347 to a high of 3365, indicating a second wave adjustment within a larger upward structure. The focus will be on the progress of this correction, with anticipation for a subsequent third wave upward movement [5][7] - After the completion of the second wave rebound, attention will shift to potential opportunities in the third wave downward movement, which is a key focus for upcoming trading strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the US-China trade tensions, on various asset classes. Group 1: Economic Environment and Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant decline in inflation, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2] - The interest rates for one-year deposits at major banks have dropped to 0.9%, leading to a diminishing return on traditional savings, which poses challenges for individuals seeking to grow their wealth through savings alone [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a highly uncertain global environment, advocating for a strategy of not putting all eggs in one basket [2][3] Group 2: Asset Classes Overview - A-shares, gold, government bonds, and US Treasuries are identified as the core asset classes for domestic investors, each with distinct risk-return profiles [3] - A-shares are seen as having optimistic potential, contingent on effective domestic policy support for the economy, while the bond market is expected to have limited upside and increased volatility compared to 2024 [3][4] - Gold is recommended for accumulation rather than speculation, as its price may face short-term pressures despite having long-term upward potential due to factors like a weakening dollar and potential tariff increases [3][10] Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The US-China trade conflict is identified as the primary "black swan" event affecting the A-share market, with significant market reactions observed following escalations in trade tensions [4][8] - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance post-trade conflict, recent data indicates a stabilization in manufacturing and external trade, contributing to a recovery in A-share prices [6][8] - The article notes that the market's future performance will depend heavily on the resilience of financial stocks and the overall economic outlook [6][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The perception of gold as an investment has become more complex, with recent price fluctuations reflecting heightened sensitivity to market conditions and geopolitical developments [10][11] - The article highlights that while gold prices surged earlier in the year, the current market sentiment is cautious, with predictions of potential declines in gold prices due to stronger US economic indicators [10][14] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, particularly as a hedge against the declining credibility of the dollar, but short-term volatility is expected [14][16] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with lower returns expected in 2025 compared to the previous year, making it more suitable for tactical trading rather than buy-and-hold strategies [17][19] - The article suggests that investors should focus on yield movements in the 10-year government bond market to inform their trading decisions, as the relationship between bond prices and yields is inversely correlated [21][23] - The US Treasury market is under scrutiny due to rising yields, which are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens, indicating a need for careful investment strategies [23][25]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies potential price turning points by observing divergences between price trends and volume or technical indicators (e.g., MACD). Divergences signal weakening momentum, suggesting a possible reversal in the price trend [2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify price making new highs or lows. 2. Check if corresponding volume or MACD fails to make new highs or lows, indicating divergence. 3. Confirm divergence using additional signals: - For MACD, use green bar shortening or yellow/white line crossover for confirmation [10]. - Apply wave theory to filter valid signals by identifying five-wave structures in trends [14][16]. 4. Combine divergence signals with moving averages to determine market conditions (e.g., bull or bear market) [14][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: Divergence signals alone have a success rate of less than 55% for predicting turning points. However, combining them with wave theory and moving averages improves accuracy to over 65% [13][16][17]. 2. Model Name: V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the "Temperature Indicator" to measure the degree of price deviation from moving averages, identifying extreme conditions that may signal V-shaped reversals [3][18][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate a moving average (e.g., 60-day for short-term trends, annual for long-term trends). 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Compute the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Calculate the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the "Temperature Indicator," which ranges from 0 to 100 [18][19]. 6. Define thresholds for identifying turning points: - In bear markets, both high-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators must fall below 10. - In range-bound markets, only the high-frequency indicator below 10 is sufficient. - In bull markets, consider additional risks and adjust thresholds (e.g., high-frequency indicator below 15 or 10) [19][21][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies turning points in various market conditions but requires adjustments for bull markets to account for strong trends and potential false signals [27][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Accuracy**: Basic divergence signals have a success rate below 55% but improve to over 65% when combined with wave theory and moving averages [13][16][17]. 2. V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators below 10 successfully identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022, each lasting over a month [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 during a three-quarter-long consolidation phase [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Temperature Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures price deviation from moving averages to identify extreme overbought or oversold conditions [18][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use a moving average (e.g., 60-day or annual) to represent the trend. 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Calculate the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Compute the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the factor value, ranging from 0 to 100 [18][19]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies extreme market conditions but requires different thresholds for bear, range-bound, and bull markets to optimize performance [19][21][26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Temperature Indicator - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency indicators below 10 identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022 [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent developments in the A-share market, highlighting a significant upward trend over the past three days, suggesting that recent gains may outweigh efforts made over the previous two months [3][7] - The potential for a third wave rally in the A-share market is identified, with the current phase being a part of a larger upward trend that is expected to exceed the previous wave in both time and space [6] - The article emphasizes the importance of both internal fiscal policies and external monetary policies, with expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [6][7] Group 2 - Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicate a consensus towards considering interest rate cuts, with some suggesting that action should be taken as early as July [8][9] - The article notes that the market's recent performance may not solely be attributed to geopolitical events but rather to underlying financial dynamics and policy expectations [7] - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate outlook suggests a gradual reduction in rates over the next year, which could diminish the dollar's interest rate advantage [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a slight increase at the beginning of the week but faced resistance and declined, ultimately closing lower by the end of the week [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, have heightened market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its June meeting, indicating potential inflationary pressures but emphasizing a cautious approach towards rate cuts, which has kept the dollar strong and pressured gold prices [3] Group 2: Upcoming Focus - Attention will be on speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell's testimony regarding monetary policy, which may provide insights into future policy directions [4] - Key economic data releases to watch include initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP final figures, and core PCE price index data, which could influence market sentiment [4] - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities could further increase market volatility and risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a critical phase, with two main perspectives on whether the third wave of price movement has concluded [5] - If the third wave is deemed complete, the market may be in a fourth wave adjustment phase, with a key observation point at the price level of 3452 [8] - Conversely, if the third wave is still ongoing, the current price movement could be part of a larger upward trend, necessitating close monitoring of price structures and potential breakout points [10][13]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating potential for future rate cuts, but Chairman Powell cautioned against overemphasizing this prediction [1] - Economic forecasts suggest a mild stagflation scenario for the U.S., with expected GDP growth slowing to 1.4% this year, an unemployment rate rising to 4.5% by year-end, and inflation reaching 3%, significantly above current levels [1] - The Fed anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, with a slower pace of cuts expected thereafter, projecting only one 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027 as inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - Powell noted that the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will lead to "considerably high" inflation, affecting consumer prices over time [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has completed a five-wave downward movement from 3451 to 3362, with a weak technical ABC adjustment, indicating a potential larger downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator for gold shows prolonged low volume below the zero line, suggesting a bearish outlook, with recommendations to consider short positions [5] - Silver (XAGUSD) has shown upward movement from 28.35, currently in a C wave, but has broken the rhythm of top-bottom transitions, indicating a potential technical adjustment [9] - The MACD for silver indicates diminishing bullish momentum, suggesting a preference for short positions [9] Market Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around 3390.0, with a stop loss at 3398.0 and a target range of 3380.0-3360.0 [6] - For silver, a short position is suggested near 36.80, with a stop loss at 37.10 and a target range of 36.30-36.00 [10] News Events - Upcoming economic events include Switzerland's trade balance at 14:00, the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision at 15:30, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices started to rise on Monday, experienced fluctuations on Tuesday, and ended the week with three consecutive days of gains, resulting in a weekly bullish close [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have heightened market concerns, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also maintained high levels of market risk aversion, further boosting the demand for gold [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a widespread market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2025, particularly during the upcoming meeting on June 19, which could weaken the dollar and support gold prices [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current strong upward trend in the gold market deviates from previous expectations of a downward Y wave, with two main viewpoints regarding the ongoing wave structure [6] - If the third wave (3) is deemed complete, the market may be in a fourth wave (4) adjustment phase, with potential resistance around $3500 [11] - If the third wave (3) is still ongoing, the current upward movement from a low of $3120 indicates a new internal structure of the third wave, suggesting further upward potential in the short term [13] - The key support level for future market movements is identified at $3293, which is crucial for determining investment strategies [15]