Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a slight increase at the beginning of the week but faced resistance and declined, ultimately closing lower by the end of the week [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, have heightened market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its June meeting, indicating potential inflationary pressures but emphasizing a cautious approach towards rate cuts, which has kept the dollar strong and pressured gold prices [3] Group 2: Upcoming Focus - Attention will be on speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell's testimony regarding monetary policy, which may provide insights into future policy directions [4] - Key economic data releases to watch include initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP final figures, and core PCE price index data, which could influence market sentiment [4] - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities could further increase market volatility and risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a critical phase, with two main perspectives on whether the third wave of price movement has concluded [5] - If the third wave is deemed complete, the market may be in a fourth wave adjustment phase, with a key observation point at the price level of 3452 [8] - Conversely, if the third wave is still ongoing, the current price movement could be part of a larger upward trend, necessitating close monitoring of price structures and potential breakout points [10][13]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating potential for future rate cuts, but Chairman Powell cautioned against overemphasizing this prediction [1] - Economic forecasts suggest a mild stagflation scenario for the U.S., with expected GDP growth slowing to 1.4% this year, an unemployment rate rising to 4.5% by year-end, and inflation reaching 3%, significantly above current levels [1] - The Fed anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, with a slower pace of cuts expected thereafter, projecting only one 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027 as inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - Powell noted that the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will lead to "considerably high" inflation, affecting consumer prices over time [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has completed a five-wave downward movement from 3451 to 3362, with a weak technical ABC adjustment, indicating a potential larger downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator for gold shows prolonged low volume below the zero line, suggesting a bearish outlook, with recommendations to consider short positions [5] - Silver (XAGUSD) has shown upward movement from 28.35, currently in a C wave, but has broken the rhythm of top-bottom transitions, indicating a potential technical adjustment [9] - The MACD for silver indicates diminishing bullish momentum, suggesting a preference for short positions [9] Market Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around 3390.0, with a stop loss at 3398.0 and a target range of 3380.0-3360.0 [6] - For silver, a short position is suggested near 36.80, with a stop loss at 37.10 and a target range of 36.30-36.00 [10] News Events - Upcoming economic events include Switzerland's trade balance at 14:00, the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision at 15:30, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices started to rise on Monday, experienced fluctuations on Tuesday, and ended the week with three consecutive days of gains, resulting in a weekly bullish close [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have heightened market concerns, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also maintained high levels of market risk aversion, further boosting the demand for gold [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a widespread market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2025, particularly during the upcoming meeting on June 19, which could weaken the dollar and support gold prices [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current strong upward trend in the gold market deviates from previous expectations of a downward Y wave, with two main viewpoints regarding the ongoing wave structure [6] - If the third wave (3) is deemed complete, the market may be in a fourth wave (4) adjustment phase, with potential resistance around $3500 [11] - If the third wave (3) is still ongoing, the current upward movement from a low of $3120 indicates a new internal structure of the third wave, suggesting further upward potential in the short term [13] - The key support level for future market movements is identified at $3293, which is crucial for determining investment strategies [15]

Bitcoin Analysis - The analysis suggests a potential pullback to fill gaps from rapid gains and test previous upper shadows, viewing any subsequent dip as a B-wave correction after an A-wave rise, seeking support for further upward movement [1] - The report highlights the importance of observing price action near the previous all-time high after breaking parallel highs, cautioning against potential false breakouts if the upward movement is too rapid [1] - The analysis identifies a 4-hour chart gap that remains valid, noting previous resistance around the 0618%-066% retracement level of a prior all-time high fakeout [1] - The report points out a small-scale bearish divergence, with increasing long positions failing to drive prices higher, suggesting a possible A-wave correction and a need to fill lower gaps [1] Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum's chart pattern shows a breakout from a downtrend line followed by consolidation, currently in a daily chart consolidation range, potentially forming a fake breakout pattern [1] - The recommendation is to take profits on 50% or more of long positions due to the ongoing consolidation, with a plan to re-enter if the price drops lower to clear out long stop-losses [2] - The analysis indicates that an AMD (accumulation, manipulation, distribution) pattern has completed, advising against chasing further gains at the current level [2] Trump Coin Analysis - Trump coin is showing a lack of trading volume, suggesting a potential further decline to fully fill the gap, with a recommendation to monitor for increased volume and a breakout of a downtrend line before considering a trade [2]

▲ATFX图 走势结构角度看，日线级别，美元指数处于中长期空头趋势之中，最新波段是下跌波段。市价运行于前 一个反弹波段的0.618分位处，有可能形成短期支撑。如果中长期趋势顺利延续，年内低点97.88是重要 点位，一旦被突破，则下跌空间打开。中期来看，96.29和95.32分别为前一个反弹波段的1.382、1.618分 位，均具有较强支撑性，可以作为突破年内低点后的目标价位。 需要提醒的是，从波浪理论角度看，美元指数的空头趋势已经出现了三轮驱动浪下跌，中期跌势可能已 经结束。如果下破年内低点失败，美元指数有可能在底部形成震荡走势，100整数关口有望成为震荡中 枢。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点， 不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更 新内容不会另行通知。 ATFX汇市：英国、德国、法国、欧元区、美国等，今日扎堆公布制造业PMI数据。前值来看，英国、 德国、法国、欧元区、美国的制造业PMI分别为45.4、48.4、48.7、49.0、50.2，荣枯线标准为50.0，欧 元区国家均处于收缩状态，只有 ...

黄金周一（5月12日）早盘低开后在3292-3260区间震荡，午后因中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明的公布，黄金快速下跌，欧盘最低跌至3208/3207附近。随后 行情企稳震荡反弹，到美盘最高反弹至3249附近后震荡，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：商务部公布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，全球两大经济体大幅降低关税！美方保留10%关税，取消或暂停其余加征， 中方也将相应调整。消息一出，黄金短线大跌。 2、地缘政治局势：地缘政治紧张局势在周末有所缓和，如印度和巴基斯坦宣布停火、俄乌和谈出现新转机，这些积极变化整体上减少了市场的避险需求， 对黄金价格产生一定的抑制作用。特朗普暗示本周可能亲自参与俄乌领导人会谈，若会谈进展顺利，地缘政治风险进一步降低，黄金的避险属性将持续被削 弱；若会谈无果，地缘政治风险升温，黄金或有上涨可能。 3、美联储政策预期：美联储理事库格勒支持将利率维持在当前水平不变，且高盛推后美联储降息预期至年底，花旗也推迟了对美联储降息的预测时间。市 场对美联储货币政策的预期变化影响了黄金市场，利率维持不变或降息预期推迟，降低了黄金作为对冲通胀和经济不确定性工具的吸引力。 4、 ...

本周，黄金整体冲高回落走势，周一周二大阳上涨，周三小幅跳空高开后直接拐头下跌收阴，周四延续下跌收阴，周五下探回升收阳，周线最终收出一根带 有长上影线的阳线。 一、基本面 1、本周市场情况 （1）地缘政治因素 中东局势持续紧张，伊朗核谈判推迟，美伊关系紧张，随时可能升级的冲突持续为黄金提供避险支撑。同时，俄乌冲突依旧存在，印度与巴基斯坦的军事对 峙局面未变，这些地缘政治风险巩固了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，刺激市场避险需求，推动金价上涨。 （2）经济数据与政策因素 美英达成贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税、扩大产品市场准入，但协议仍有诸多细节待定。此外，欧盟威胁对千亿欧元美国产品征税，贸易紧张局势的 不确定性依然存在，这对黄金价格产生了双向影响。 美国经济数据：5月3日当周首次申请失业救济人数下降至22.8万人，低于市场预期，显示就业市场有一定韧性。不过，美联储理事巴尔警告特朗普关税政策 可能在今年晚些时候推高通胀、降低经济增长并增加失业率。美国经济数据的复杂性使得市场对经济前景的预期存在分歧，增加了市场不确定性，影响黄金 走势。 美联储政策预期：5月8日，美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has retreated to the critical support area of $95,000 after two days of consolidation, with market activity remaining low. The gap formed at $97,022 in CME Bitcoin futures is attracting attention from technical traders, indicating potential short-term price recovery, while caution is advised regarding the historical gap between $91,000 and $92,000 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - CME Bitcoin futures closed at $97,022, leading to a premium gap of approximately $1,600 as the spot market dropped to $94,248. Historical data shows an 80% probability of such gaps being filled within 1-3 trading days after CME resumes trading [3]. - The current price is testing the 200-day moving average support at $94,500, with a potential rebound if it stays above $95,400, which is the lower edge of the CME gap. However, a breakout above $97,000 requires daily trading volume to exceed $30 billion [3][6]. - The price is caught in a "double gap squeeze" between the historical gap at $91,000-$92,000 and the new gap at $97,000, with the former representing strong technical resistance due to over 270,000 Bitcoin in open options contracts [4][6]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The market is experiencing a reduction in both long and short positions, with perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges like Binance and OKX dropping to 0.03%, indicating decreased leverage participation [6]. - From a wave theory perspective, the price is in the final stage of a C-wave adjustment. A successful breakout above the $97,000-$98,000 range could lead to a five-wave extension towards the psychological level of $100,000. Conversely, a drop below $94,000 would confirm a mid-term trend reversal targeting the annual low of $86,000 [6]. - Multiple technical indicators across different time frames are showing divergence, with the daily RSI at 42 indicating oversold conditions, and the weekly MACD showing a bottom divergence. The open contract volume remains high at 3.8 million, suggesting a potential "wedge reversal" pattern, with the breakout direction determining the price center for the next three months [6][8]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The market is at a critical turning point, with the potential for $500-$800 volatility in the next 48 hours due to the dual effects of CME gap filling and historical gap pressure. Traders should focus on the effectiveness of the support at $95,400 and the dynamics at the $97,000 level [8]. - For medium to long-term investors, the wide oscillation range between $91,000 and $97,000 may present a strategic entry point for positioning ahead of the fourth-quarter halving event [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current upward trend in gold prices is driven by a significant breakout from a prolonged consolidation period between 2020 and 2023, influenced by worsening global geopolitical and economic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - The analysis suggests that gold is currently in the third wave of an upward trend, with expectations of a potential fourth wave correction followed by a fifth wave increase [1] - Recent price movements have shown extreme volatility, with gold reaching 3500, but closing with a long upper shadow candlestick, signaling potential risks despite the overall upward trend [3] Group 2 - The monthly chart indicates a bullish trend for the next 1-2 years, reinforcing the expectation of continued price increases in gold [2][4] - The daily chart reflects a transitional phase with significant local pullbacks, but the overall upward momentum remains intact, supported by moving averages below current prices [6] - The four-hour chart indicates a clear range-bound movement, with critical support at 3260; a break below this level could lead to further declines, while a rise above 3371 would signal renewed strength [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the results of the 2024 Seventh New Wealth Best Investment Advisor Competition, showcasing the achievements of investment advisors and emphasizing the importance of professional skills in wealth management [2][5]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition involved 36,616 investment advisors from 96 securities companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [2]. - Li Xianghui, a senior investment advisor from Beijing Jinsong Nine District Securities Branch, achieved an impressive 9th place nationally among nearly 40,000 participants [2][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The simulated ETF portfolio managed by Li Xianghui recorded a cumulative return of 32.93% from May 6, 2024, to October 31, 2024, ranking 65th out of 2,038 participants [7][8]. - The stock selection success rate for the portfolio was 80.43%, with a maximum drawdown of 11.80% and a turnover rate of 2742.11% [8]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes a short-term, low-buying strategy while avoiding high chasing, focusing on technical analysis and market timing [12][13]. - The advisor combines Elliott Wave Theory and Chan Theory to create a comprehensive investment advisory system, focusing on the integration of volume, price, time, and space [14][15]. Group 4: Strategy and Analysis - The competition strategies included fundamental analysis of macroeconomic factors and technical analysis for timing trades, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [17]. - A multi-directional hedging strategy was also mentioned as a means to reduce market risk, although it is noted that retail investors often lack effective short-selling tools [17].