目前的调整，大概率是政策面有短期利空。 Romi 没见过顶部调整个5%，所有人都这么悲观的。正常表现应该是大家都喊千金难买牛回头，死 了都不卖。 没见过大部分人都能猜对的顶。 没见过大家都这么冷静没人疯狂的顶。 目前没见基本面趋势转变的关键因素，比如07年金融危机，15去杠杆。 目前市场估值a股和港股都不便宜但是也不算贵。 目前位置市场主力根本没法出货，最大的主力还在。 目前看只是日线级别的调整。 闲人235 很多人说这次有什么不一样，这次也一样。 但我认为这次有那么一点不一样，就是无风险收益率大幅下降+楼市崩盘+管制。 分别对应：钱多了+资产少了+钱出不去。 这三种条件一起达成的情况下，一定有新的资产站出来，我认为应该是股市。 符工 不相信会跌 相信会不跌 跌到不相信 相信会跌 不相信会涨 相信会不涨 涨到不相信 相信会涨 lazioslg 经济增长是上不封顶的，也就是说，人总是会想尽办法过的更好的，无论现在过的有多么 好，未来还是要比现在好；股市就是经济的对照表，那么经济的增长最后都会反映到股市上 来的；所以，投资股票，既然买了，抱牢就好，当传家宝最好，只要你能抱的住，你就能吃 到所有增长的红利；如果害怕 ...

2025.11.25 本文字数：1966，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 "今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全 球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 洪灝是在11月21日举办的"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上作出上述表述的。对于今年中国股市的上涨， 有观点认为没有基本面支撑，但洪灝持反对意见。他认为，中国股市的运行有基本面支撑，支撑经济基 本面的核心力量由房地产转变为新能源、半导体、高端制造等新兴产业。 在洪灝看来，"9.24"以来的行情没有修复完，随着工业利润不断修复，将支持上证指数继续创新高。中 国股市最值得期待的"第五浪"刚刚开始，涨幅可能超出普遍预期。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内 卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导 致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻辑在 ...

本文字数：1966，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 "今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全 球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 洪灝是在11月21日举办的"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上作出上述表述的。对于今年中国股市的上 涨，有观点认为没有基本面支撑，但洪灝持反对意见。他认为，中国股市的运行有基本面支撑，支撑经 济基本面的核心力量由房地产转变为新能源、半导体、高端制造等新兴产业。 2025.11. 25 在洪灝看来，"9.24"以来的行情没有修复完，随着工业利润不断修复，将支持上证指数继续创新高。 中国股市最值得期待的"第五浪"刚刚开始，涨幅可能超出普遍预期。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内 卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导 致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻 ...

"今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙 人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通 缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻辑在于，最近10年猪肉行业利润率和工业金属价格基本上同涨同跌，7月份，工 业金属价格和猪肉利润率开始有所提升。虽然最后价格没有很大的变化，但是猪农的利润率发生比较明显的变化。 就上游的通胀情况来看，洪灝说，如果现在看到铁矿石的价格开始回暖，在未来3～6个月也会看到上游的PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）通缩压力减少。同 时，消费意愿也滞后3～6个月，也就是说如果现在看到上游的通缩预期在逐步消退，未来3～6个月应该会看到上游的价格以及消费预期都会开始有所回暖。 "现在大家可能没有感受到，毕竟上游传导需要一段时间，但是 ...

Group 1 - The current rise in the Chinese stock market is supported by fundamentals, with predictions of entering the "fifth wave" of growth, potentially exceeding general expectations [1][35] - The rapid advancement of the "Yarlung Tsangpo Project" is significant in materializing the concept of "anti-involution," which is expected to alleviate deflationary pressures in the next 3-6 months [1][4] - Industrial profits have shown a notable increase, with a growth rate of approximately 20% in September and October, indicating a recovery in the upstream sector [11][35] Group 2 - The contribution of real estate to GDP has decreased from over 30% to around 10%, while manufacturing now accounts for one-third of global manufacturing value added, highlighting a structural shift in the economy [1][35] - Precious metals like gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with gold rising nearly 70% and silver close to 90% this year, reflecting potential risks in the global credit monetary system [19][22] - The expectation of industrial metals rising is high, as current pricing levels are comparable to those during the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting a potential recovery in this sector [22][35] Group 3 - The Chinese economic cycle operates on a short-term basis of 3-4 years, currently at a relative high point, necessitating supportive economic policies [23][25] - The liquidity environment is improving, which is beneficial for the Chinese stock market, as indicated by the recovery of the M1 money supply from historical lows [29][31] - The long-term economic outlook suggests that as deflationary pressures are managed, the yield curve will steepen, encouraging banks to lend and injecting liquidity into the economy [31][35] Group 4 - The "fifth wave" of the stock market is anticipated to be the most promising, with expectations of significant growth ahead [36][35] - The Chinese market is currently the best-performing globally, with a strong fundamental support for the ongoing bull market [35][36] - The market's upward trend is expected to continue, with the potential for substantial returns as the economic landscape evolves [34][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom of the 30-year treasury bond futures was broken, weakening the pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent repair strength. TL2603 fell back after a rebound and is in a short-term adjustment. If it further declines after the repair, subsequent market conditions need to be dealt with cautiously [1]. - The data tracking of treasury bond futures indicates that the main contract is about to change, and the cash-and-carry strategy of the 2603 contract still has some participation value. This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated, and the trading activity increased overall. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contract decreased overall, and the IRR increased except for TL. Currently, the IRR of T2603 and TL2603 is still significantly higher than the capital interest rate [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, the trends of T and TL were differentiated. T rose slightly, while TL declined continuously since Wednesday. TL2603 first rose and then fell, and TL2512 broke below the upper edge of the bottom area (around 115.57) on Friday, breaking the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern and closing near the 60 - day line [6]. 1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook - TL2603 showed signs of weakening after breaking below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom on Friday. From the perspective of the wave theory, the adjustment since November 5th may form a platform type, and it may be at the end of the short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the repair strength. If the market declines again after the repair, the risk of further continuation of the adjustment needs to be concerned. TL2603 was weaker than T2603 this week. T2603 also broke below 115.57 on Friday, weakening the pattern. If the end of the platform type forms a phased low, the subsequent market can still be optimistic [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated. As of November 21st, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.460, 105.855, 108.430, and 115.57 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.006, -0.020, +0.015, and -0.59 yuan compared with the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased compared with last week, and the trading volume/holding volume increased for each maturity [15]. - As of November 21st, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of treasury bond futures decreased across the board, while that of the 2603 contracts increased across the board, indicating that participants continued to shift positions [15]. - As of November 21st, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of each maturity decreased overall, with little change in TL. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were -0.07, -0.05, -0.11, and -0.13 yuan respectively. In terms of IRR, the IRR of the CTD of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.66%, 1.60%, 1.77%, and 1.75% respectively, increasing except for TL. The cash - and - carry strategies of T2603 and TL2603 still have some participation value. The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts decreased overall this week [18].

昨日11月17日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘后一度上行至4107附近，随后开启下行走势，午盘时段下探至4049附近后止跌回升。欧盘初上涨4096附近后受阻， 转而进入震荡下行；美国交易时段初期，下行趋势持续延续，直至凌晨时段加速下探，触及日内最低点4007附近。收盘前夕，金价略有回弹，最终收于4045 附近，日线级别收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 2、四小时级别：黄金在周一呈现震荡下行态势，日内虽有反弹，但最终还是受阻下跌，高点持续下移，整体走势偏弱。凌晨时段，价格跌破上周五低点 4032关键支撑位，最低下探至4007附近。从技术结构来看，黄金自4245高点开启的下跌行情，已形成完整的五波运行结构。 根据周末的行情推演，黄金自4381高点启动的调整浪走势清晰：其中4381至3886的下行段定义为A浪，3886至4245的回升段构成B浪，目前价格处于4245高 点以来的C浪下跌阶段。从浪型结构推演，C浪下跌大概率延续五波运行模式，当前正处于C浪中的第一波下跌进程。昨日价格成功下破4032支撑位，标志着 C浪第一波下跌同样完成五波结构走势。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周一呈现震荡下跌的弱势格局，最终以阴线报收，日线 ...

金价冲到4240美元后突然跳水，你的投资该怎么办？ 2025年11月14日，黄金市场刚刚经历了一场过山车般的行情。 伦敦金价格在冲击到4244.96美元的三周 新高后急转直下，最终收于4165.42美元，全天跌幅0.72%。 更让人意外的是，推动这波上涨的核心动力，市场对美联储12月降息的预期，在几小时内从70% 的高概率骤降至50%左右。 这种急速变盘让不少投资者措手不及，明后两天，黄金市场可能迎来更大的波动。 这场剧烈波动的直接导火索是美联储官员的密集发声。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克强调通胀仍然过高，货币政策需保持紧缩；圣路易斯联储的穆萨勒姆也对 降息持谨慎态度。 这些鹰派言论迅速改变了市场氛围，与此同时，持续43天的美国联邦政府"停摆"正式结束，特朗普签署了临时拨款法案。 政府重启使得 投资者风险偏好发生转变，部分资金从黄金等避险资产流向股市，触发了大量的获利了结。 从技术分析角度看，黄金目前处于关键位置。 4小时图上，伦敦金价格仍运行在向上开口的布林带轨道内，MACD指标也高于零轴，显示短期多头趋势的基 础尚未被破坏。 但在小时级别走势上，短周期均线已经开始勾头向下发散，K线连续回落并击破短周期均线，表 ...

- The report mentions the "Four-Wheel Drive Model," which provides opportunity signals for industry allocation. It suggests focusing on sectors in the low-start phase, particularly in the technology and innovation directions[2][8] - The "Cycle Analysis Model" is referenced for analyzing the market trends. It indicates that the ChiNext Index is in a consolidation phase, potentially forming a double-top structure if it resumes upward movement after adjustments[7] - The "Mid-Term Trend Factor" is used to observe the trend strength of the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index. Recent adjustments have caused fluctuations in its trend strength, and the crowding level of the broader technology sector has started to decline[7]

Core Insights - The ultimate realm of trading is simplicity, as demonstrated by Zhou Chengji over 25 years of experience in the futures market [1] - Zhou emphasizes that the essence of trading lies in merging with the market rather than relying solely on technical skills [4] Trading Career - Zhou began trading in 2001, experiencing a cycle of earning, losing, and working to rebuild capital for 13 years [3] - A turning point occurred in 2014 when he turned a 10,000 yuan investment in silver into 30,000 yuan within a month, leading to a "stair-step profit" strategy [3] - From 2014 to 2019, he focused on short-term trading, and post-2020, he shifted to swing trading, achieving a state of alignment with market movements [3] Core Philosophy - Zhou believes that understanding one's own personality and the market's rhythm is crucial for successful trading [4] - He identifies human emotions, such as greed and fear, as the biggest enemies in trading [4] Trading System - Zhou's trading system is based on wave theory, which he considers a foundational tool rather than a secret technique [5] - He aims to capture the most profitable segments of market waves, using leverage and sound money management to achieve significant profits [5] - For example, he predicted that gold would rise from $3,350 to $4,300 per ounce in 2025, ultimately reaching $4,390 [5] Entry and Risk Management - Zhou advocates for entering trades during pullbacks at support levels, with strict stop-loss measures in place [6] - He employs a multi-account diversification strategy, allocating 20%-30% of capital to each account to mitigate risk [6] Macro and Technical Analysis - Zhou views macroeconomic factors as tools to enhance trading rather than as primary decision-making criteria [7] - He emphasizes trusting technical signals over macro news when they diverge, using macro data as an accelerator only during significant market movements [7] Insights and Mindset - Zhou's ultimate realization is to discard the complexity of indicators and focus on cognitive understanding and market perspective [8] - He encourages traders to reflect on their goals and capacity to manage wealth responsibly [8] - His journey from losing trades to becoming a champion in a global competition illustrates that successful trading relies on long-term skill development and a strong mindset [8]