来源：华尔街见闻 随着特朗普此前公布其全面的全球关税计划，华尔街此前的普遍共识是，美国可能会面临经济衰退，或 者至少陷入"滞胀"局面：即经济增长乏力、通胀高企以及失业率上升。 在第一季度经济萎缩0.6%之后，这些经济预测似乎一度正在变为现实。然而，在随后的几个月里， GDP增长率在第二季度反弹至3.8%，并在7月至9月期间达到了4.3%。 如果亚特兰大联储备受关注的GDPNow模型对第四季度3%的增长预测准确无误，那么全年经济增长率 将达到2.8%——这一数字高于"蓝筹经济指标"预测共识的2.1%。 尽管各项调查继续凸显消费者对物价居高不下的不满，但数据显示通胀已经企稳，11月份回落至 2.7%。 在总统第二任期的第一年，消费价格上涨了约2%，相比之下，拜登任期第一年的涨幅约为6%。 特朗普推行的关税政策也帮助白宫实现了缩小贸易逆差的目标。 9月份，美国贸易逆差意外收窄至528亿美元，创下自2020年6月以来的最低水平。这主要得益于出口的 大幅增加和进口的微幅增长。 特朗普将这些改善归功于本届政府的贸易举措。 "关税正在为美国创造巨大的财富和前所未有的国家安全，"特朗普在12月27日发布于"真相社交"（Tru ...

在全球经济格局中，两大经济体正朝着相反的方向"行驶"：大洋彼岸的美国经济仍面临高通胀的"炙 烤"，企业成本与物价持续上涨；而中国的经济图景中，"通缩压力"与物价低位运行，成为政策制定者 需要应对的紧迫挑战。一"胀"一"缩"，这两种截然相反的现象，不仅深刻塑造着各自的经济走向，也对 全球经济稳定构成了复杂的影响。本文将深入剖析这两大经济体面临的困境根源、政策抉择与未来挑 战。 一、 美国的"通胀顽疾"：高物价背后的结构性难题 进入2025年，美国的通胀压力并未如预期般顺利消退，反而呈现出新的复杂态势，让美联储与普通家庭 倍感压力。 1. 通胀数据的"新高度" 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，2025年8月的消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率攀升至 2.9%，创下当年1月以来的最高水平，且连续数月高于美联储设定的2%长期目标。通胀并非全面上 涨，而是结构性突出：与民生息息相关的食品价格单月飙升0.6%，创下近三年来最大单月涨幅；油价 在短暂回落后又环比上涨1.9%。对于普通美国家庭而言，无论是超市购物还是驾车出行，生活成本都 在持续加码。 更值得警惕的是，衡量通胀广度的指标显示，占美国CPI指标72%的 ...

36氪获悉，中金公司研报认为，当前美联储仍处于宽松周期之中，美国经济仍受到滞胀（增长下行，通 胀上行）困扰，因此在看到美国政策与经济拐点之前，黄金牛市可能继续，维持超配黄金。今年黄金涨 幅较大，估值偏高，2026年初美联储宽松预期阶段性退坡，或成为风险来源。考虑到明年美联储最终仍 会重新加速宽松，因此如果明年初金价发生明显回调，可能是逢低增配的机会。黄金大幅上涨之后，近 期铜、白银等商品也有强劲表现，部分反映黄金流动性外溢效应。除此之外，商品还可以对冲地缘风险 与美国经济过热风险，已经在年度展望中建议把商品上调至标配，尤其看好有色金属。与此同时，研报 提示白银等金属相对黄金市场规模更小，流动性更差，如果明年黄金出现波动，回调风险同样更大，建 议做好风险控制，避免盲目追涨。 ...

今年黄金涨幅较大，估值偏高，2026年初美联储宽松预期阶段性退坡，或成为风险来源。考虑到明年美 联储最终仍会重新加速宽松，因此如果明年初金价发生明显回调，可能是逢低增配的机会。黄金大幅上 涨之后，近期铜、白银等商品也有强劲表现，部分反映黄金流动性外溢效应。除此之外，商品还可以对 冲地缘风险与美国经济过热风险，已经在年度展望中建议把商品上调至标配，尤其看好有色金属。与此 同时，研报提示白银等金属相对黄金市场规模更小，流动性更差，如果明年黄金出现波动，回调风险同 样更大，建议做好风险控制，避免盲目追涨。 人民财讯12月26日电，中金公司（601995）研报认为，当前美联储仍处于宽松周期之中，美国经济仍受 到滞胀(增长下行，通胀上行)困扰，因此在看到美国政策与经济拐点之前，黄金牛市可能继续，维持超 配黄金。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司，再创历史新高，背后是 美联储重启宽松周期、美元信誉下降和全球地缘风险升级三重因素支撑。该行认为，美国债务与财政赤 字是否扩张，或全球央行是否加速购金，对黄金牛市顶部的指示意义有限。当前美联储仍处于宽松周期 之中，美国经济仍受到滞胀困扰，因此在看到美国政策与经济拐点之前，黄金牛市可能继续，维持超配 黄金。此外，中国股票继续受益于AI科技浪潮与流动性宽裕，且当前估值合理，尚未看到牛市顶部信 号，因此该行坚定看好中国资产重估，维持超配中国股票。 中金主要观点如下： 为何黄金大幅上涨？ 近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司，再创历史新高，背后是三重因素支撑：首先是美联储重启宽松 周期。在维持政策利率水平9个月不变之后，美联储今年9月重启降息，已经连续降息三次各25bp，且宣 布12月开始购买短端国债，扩大央行资产负债表，向市场投放流动性。进入2026年，美联储的前瞻指引 显示明年可能仍会继续降息。美联储货币大方向上趋于宽松，支持黄金表现。 其次是美元信誉下降。疫情后美国财政赤字率升至6%左右，远高于疫情前中枢，国家债务快速积累， 导致债务风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The k-shaped consumer economy is expected to continue, and investors should be cautious about potential slowdowns in AI investment impacting the broader economy [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - The k-shaped recovery indicates that different segments of the economy are recovering at different rates, leading to disparities in consumer spending and investment [1] - The persistence of this economic trend suggests that certain sectors may thrive while others lag behind, creating varied investment opportunities [1] Group 2: AI Investment Concerns - A slowdown in AI investment could have significant repercussions on the overall economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of technology investments and economic health [1] - Investors are advised to monitor AI investment trends closely, as they may serve as indicators of broader economic performance [1]

受消费者支出、出口、政府支出等因素推动，美国三季度经济以两年来的最快速度扩张，表现意外超预 期。 据央视新闻报道，美国商务部23日公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值环比按年 率计算增长4.3%。美国出口和消费支出有所增长，但投资和进口均出现下降。 与此同时，第三季度个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数上涨2.8%，高于第二季度的2.1%。剔除波动较大的 食品和能源价格后，三季度核心PCE物价指数为2.9%，高于第二季度的2.6%。 在美国相对火热的经济数据背后，消费者信心却持续颓靡。由于物价高企以及加征关税政策的影响，美 国消费者对经济的信心继续受到冲击。美国研究机构世界大型企业研究会23日发布的初步调查数据显 示，美国12月消费者信心指数跌至89.1，为连续五个月下滑，低于11月修正后的92.9，为今年4月以来最 低水平。 经济数据的"热"和消费者的"冷"形成了鲜明对比，"冰火两重天"的数据背后有何玄机？ 火热数据背后的微妙信号 在美国经济表现超预期背后，一系列微妙信号需要关注。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，美国第三季度GDP超预期增长，一定程度上 反映了美国当前经济在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on Europe, bearish on the US dollar, and expects the Japanese yen to appreciate [2][5][8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, it will be a year dominated by liquidity. Ample liquidity and loose monetary policies lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity, rising asset prices, but the problem of de - globalization remains unsolved, and the pressure of long - term stagflation intensifies [4]. - The US economy is in a weak recovery during the interest - rate cut cycle, with a significant increase in potential stagflation pressure. The eurozone economy has stabilized, and the euro will maintain an upward trend. The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate in 2026 [1][2][3]. - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will be the most important trends in 2026. The US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken significantly, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year. Commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, will continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 US: Accelerated Liquidity Injection and Hidden Stagflation Pressure 3.1.1 Labor Market: Accelerated Weakening Trend - In 2026, the US labor market will trend towards a significant weakening. The "inflection point" of the labor market has appeared, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise. The decline in the labor market is a gradual process, and the "atypical recession" of the labor market will continue. The problem of structural imbalance in the labor market caused by the expulsion of illegal immigrants may keep wage growth relatively high [14][16]. 3.1.2 Economic Recovery or Hidden Stagflation - In 2026, due to the mid - term elections, the Trump administration will maintain the current tariff level. US inflation is mainly driven by inflation inertia, wage growth expectations, and marginal liquidity. Liquidity injection is likely to be a neutral factor for inflation in 2026, and the overall inflation center in the US is expected to remain at around 3% year - on - year. The economy will experience a process of weakening and then slow recovery, and the real estate sector may be boosted [23][34]. 3.1.3 US Dollar: Continued Weakness - In 2026, the US dollar index will continue to weaken. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates rapidly, which will improve the liquidity within the system and relieve the government's debt pressure. Although inflation can remain relatively stable, the US dollar index will remain weak, and the real interest rate is expected to approach 0%. The Fed may face potential pressure to expand its balance sheet to maintain a relatively flat yield curve [37][45]. 3.2 Eurozone and Japan 3.2.1 Eurozone: Economic Strength and Currency Appreciation - The eurozone economy is in a continuous recovery state, with stable inflation and rising consumer and business confidence. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict reaches a cease - fire agreement, the EU will continue to expand its fiscal deficit. Fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy. The euro and European stocks performed strongly in 2025, and the current economic model of fiscal expansion and monetary stability is beneficial to the eurozone economy [46][58]. 3.2.2 Japan: Continued Appreciation of the Yen - Japan's economy is in a positive cycle, with rising GDP growth, inflation, consumer confidence, and corporate loan growth. The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. Although the expansion of fiscal deficit exerts downward pressure on the yen, the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes will lead to a rapid decline in the US - Japan interest - rate differential, which will cause the yen to appreciate. The expansion of US dollar liquidity is expected to offset the contraction of yen liquidity [61][83]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomy: From Loose to Ample Liquidity, from Simple to Complex Situation - In 2026, global market liquidity will shift from loose to ample, and asset prices will continue to rise. The weak US dollar will lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity and the rise of non - US assets. However, loose liquidity does not solve the problem of de - globalization, and more radical policies may be introduced in 2027. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and the risk premium of safe - haven assets will continue to exist. The influence of fiscal policy on the global market is increasing, which will lead to long - term and irreversible inflation [84][91]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations 3.4.1 Weak US Dollar as the Main Trend in 2026 - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will cause the US dollar index to continue to weaken significantly in 2026, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year [93]. 3.4.2 Obvious Opportunities in Commodities - The accelerated injection of liquidity and the potential increase in inflation pressure will boost commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, which will continue to rise in 2026 [94].

美国经济基本面的疲软态势，为美元指数的弱势提供了基本面支撑。数据层面呈现明显的分化与走弱迹 象：就业市场方面，11月非农新增就业虽略超预期，但失业率升至4.6%，且8-10月就业数据累计下修超 13万个，薪资同比增速放缓至3.5%的近三年低位；经济活力方面，12月美国制造业PMI初值降至51.8的 五个月新低，服务业与综合PMI也同步下滑至六个月低位，反映出经济动能正在逐步放缓。厦门大学教 授蔡庆丰指出，当前美国经济面临"滞胀"担忧，私人需求复苏乏力，企业投资意愿受贸易政策冲击持续 低迷，这种基本面状况难以支撑美元指数形成有效反弹。 技术面来看，美元指数短期处于弱势盘整状态，中长期下行趋势未改。从近期走势看，指数自11月下旬 以来连续跌破100、99两大整数关口，当前在98关口附近挣扎，下方97.50一线构成短期支撑，上方98.50 则形成较强阻力。动量指标显示，指数仍处于下行趋势通道内，空头动能虽有边际减弱，但尚未出现明 确的反转信号。机构预测方面，彭博社汇总的共识显示，超过6家大型投行普遍预计2026年美元指数将 继续走弱，年底可能再下跌约3%；德意志银行更直言，本世纪漫长的美元牛市周期或正接近尾声。 综 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the global economic landscape, particularly focusing on the implications of de-globalization and the dollar crisis on commodity supply and demand dynamics. The analysis draws parallels between the economic conditions of 2026 and 1978, particularly in the context of the United States and China. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions and Policies - The current commodity bull market is driven by de-globalization and the dollar crisis, similar to the situation in 1978. Supply risks are heightened due to geopolitical issues and natural disasters, such as the Indonesian copper mine disaster, while demand is supported by strategic reserves [1][2] - The U.S. fiscal policy may mirror the Carter administration's approach in 1978, with potential tax cuts under Trump's "Great America Act" aimed at stimulating economic growth. The effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to shift towards a dual mandate of maximizing employment and controlling inflation, reminiscent of the 1978 era under Chairman Miller, who maintained low interest rates despite rising inflation [1][3] China’s Economic Transition - China's economic trajectory in 2026 is likened to Japan's in 1978, transitioning from rapid industrialization to a focus on high-quality development, with GDP growth stabilizing around 5%. There is a strong inclination among residents to save rather than invest, with government support being crucial for social investment [1][4] - The challenges facing China include enhancing consumer spending, optimizing investment structures, and adapting to external environmental changes. The current low willingness for credit among residents mirrors Japan's situation during the late 1970s [5][6] Challenges for the U.S. and China - The U.S. faces challenges such as stagflation, increasing fiscal deficits, and potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence. The anticipated fiscal expansion under the "Great America Act" raises questions about its ability to effectively stimulate growth [5] - China must address issues related to high-quality development, including improving consumer sentiment and encouraging private investment, while also focusing on industrial upgrades and technological innovation [6] Impact of Monetary Policy and Currency Fluctuations - The hesitation to raise interest rates during Miller's tenure led to diminished trust in the Federal Reserve, resulting in a low real interest rate environment despite nominal rates being high. This situation contributed to a depreciation cycle for the dollar [7] - The initiation of the RMP (Reinvestment Plan) by the Federal Reserve resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates, but long-term rates did not follow suit, limiting the valuation of long-duration assets like tech stocks [8] - A weaker dollar in 2026 is expected to lead to a broad increase in commodity prices, with reduced price discrepancies across various commodities. The appreciation of the yuan and narrowing interest rate differentials may attract cross-border capital into yuan-denominated assets, enhancing their valuation and promoting foreign investment in A-shares [11] Market Insights and Future Outlook - The historical context of Japan's stock market rise in 1978 due to yen appreciation and foreign capital influx provides insights for China's market, which is poised for a financialization phase. The anticipated interactions between the U.S. and Chinese markets could lead to favorable conditions for China's market performance in 2026 [12] - Key sectors to watch in the Chinese market include cyclical industries such as photovoltaics, power equipment, chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as consumer companies with high operational leverage, like airlines and tourism. The expected commodity bull market also presents significant opportunities [13]