张尧浠：利好因素仍未显疲态、金价多头前景或超预期 上交易日周二(10月7日)：国际黄金继续反弹走强收阳，进一步向今年6月份金价还在3400美元的时候就给出的看涨目标4000美元上方的前景迈进，目前来 看，多头动力未有减弱迹象，暗示在突破4000关口之后，还将继续上行，有望冲击4100美元以及4200美元。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3960.15美元/盎司，先行震荡走盘，于午间遇阻3978附近，并回撤走低，到欧盘初录得日内低点3940.72美元，到达日内看涨 多单入场点，就此走势止跌反弹，延续至美盘时段录得日内高点3990.62美元，最终持稳收于3984.30美元，日振幅49.9美元，收涨24.15美元，涨幅 0.61%。 影响上，先行受到美元指数的止跌走强压力，和对于晚间数据及美联储官员讲话的预期而走低，之后受到支撑买盘而触底回升，并且，美联储卡什卡利： 经济数据出现滞胀的迹象，世贸组织大幅下调2026年全球货物贸易增长预期，资者在美国政府停摆且经济面临不确定性的背景下继续寻求避风港，助力金 价进一步反弹最终继续收涨。 展望今日周三(10月8日)：国际黄金开盘仍维持多头动力表现走强，如期触及4000美元关口 ...

然而，卡什卡利表示，"即便美联储实施一次或多次降息，也未必能转化为抵押贷款利率下降，因为原 本可能用于建造住宅或公寓楼的资金，正被转移至数据中心建设——这类投资能产生更高的回报。" "如果我们不顾经济基本面合理性，大幅超出必要幅度降息，最终可能会看到失业率极低而通胀极高的 局面，导致经济实际过热。"他补充道。 卡什卡利此前支持美联储9月降息25个基点，且认为应在本月晚些时候和12月的下两次利率决策会议 上，以同等幅度降息，以防止美国劳动力市场进一步疲软。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）于周二发出警告，称任何大幅降息都可能引发通 胀反弹风险。 卡什卡利在周二明尼苏达州《明星论坛报》（Minnesota Star Tribune）主办的"人工智能与经济"专题讨 论会上表示，"本质上，如果试图推动经济增速超过其潜在增长能力、推动物价涨幅突破其合理区间， 最终只会导致整体经济领域的全面涨价。" 这位美联储官员今年虽不参与货币政策投票，但会参与联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议事。他指出， 当前经济数据呈现出滞胀迹象——经济增长放缓的同时，通胀却持续高企。 卡什卡利还称，尽管他认为人工智 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周二，三大指数下跌。标普500指数录得8个交易日以来的首次下跌。美国政府停摆 进入第七天。在此之前，参议院五次投票表决均未能通过众议院提出的为政府运转提供资金至11月21日 的法案，令政府于周一重新开放的希望落空。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌91.99点，跌幅为0.20%，报46602.98点；纳指跌153.30点，跌幅为0.67%，报 22788.36点；标普500指数跌25.69点，跌幅为0.38%，报6714.59点。特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌4.4%， AMD(AMD.US)涨近4%，Strategy(MSTR.US)跌8.7%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.2%，阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)跌3%，百度(BIDU.US)跌4%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌11.96点，跌幅0.05%，报24384.27点；英国富时100指数涨2.06点，涨幅 0.02%，报9481.20点；法国CAC40指数涨3.07点，涨幅0.04%，报7974.85点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌15.12 点，跌幅0.27%，报5613.60点；西班牙IBEX35指数跌51.60点，跌幅0.33%，报15521.50 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 周二，美元指数走强，升至逾一周高点，最终收涨0.49%，报98.59。在美国三年期国债拍卖吸引了强劲需求后，美债收益率普跌，基准的10年期美债收益率 收报4.131%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.576%。 由于投资者在美国政府停摆且经济面临不确定性的背景下继续寻求避风港，现货黄金一度触及3990美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，最终收涨0.59%，收报 3984.56美元/盎司；现货白银盘中跳水，失守48美元/盎司关口，最终收跌1.43%，报47.83美元/盎司。 随着交易员权衡11月份欧佩克+ 谨慎减产与潜在供应过剩迹象，国际原油横盘震荡。WTI原油企稳在61美元关口上方，最终收涨0.46%，报61.8美元/桶；布 伦特原油最终收涨0.26%，报65.55美元/桶。 美股三大股指齐跌，道指收跌0.2%，标普500指数跌0.38%，纳指跌0.67%。特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌4.4%，AMD(AMD.O)涨近4%，Strategy(MSTR.O)跌8.7%。 ...

美联储卡什卡利（非今年票委）周二警告称，任何大幅降息都有引发通胀的风险。卡什卡利表示，"你 可能会看到经济出现高通胀。基本上，如果你试图推动经济增长的速度超过其潜在增长速度和产生价格 的潜力，那么最终只会导致物价全面上涨。"他警告说，鉴于经济增长正在放缓，通胀仍在持续，目前 的经济数据显示出一些滞胀的迹象。 ...

9月30号国际金价一度飙至3899美元/盎司，直接捅破人类四十多年的历史天花板！更吓人的是，今年以来COMEX黄金已经36次打破纪录，平均十来天就刷 新一次新高，堪称"疯癫模式"全开。 今年金价涨超40%，两年近乎翻倍，把股票、基金、银行存款甩得连尾灯都看不见。 多少股民基民"操作猛如虎"，年底一看收益，还不如楼下菜市场卖黄金的大妈赚得多。 现在全网都在问：金价都涨上天了，还能追吗？手里有金的该抛吗？这波疯涨背后，藏着全球市场的三大预警信号，看懂才算真的懂理财。 当所有人盯着3800美元的高价惊呼时，很少有人注意到一个关键变化：全球央行的黄金储备自1996年以来首次超过美国国债储备。 这可不是小事——相当于全球金融大佬集体对美元说"不"。 从2020年9月开始，各国央行就开启了"买金狂潮"，2022年购金速度直接翻两倍，每年要买上千吨。这是什么概念？ 中国作为全球最大产金国，去年全年才产三百多吨，央行一年能买走三个中国的产量。 最新数据更惊人：中国央行已经连续10个月增持黄金，8月末储备量达7402万盎司；2025年二季度全球央行又新增166吨储备，即便增速放缓仍在高位。 各国心里都有数，悄悄把美债换成黄金— ...

The industrial side of the U.S. economy contracted in September for the seventh month in a row, ISM said, as companies struggled to cope with high tariffs, rising prices and sluggish demand. ...

先说眼前这波"小涨"，不用记那些精确到小数点的数字，简单讲就是周二盘面没大波动：道指往上挪了80多点，标普涨了0.4%，纳指也飘了0.3%，看着都 是小碎步，但架不住9月整月发力——道指涨了1.87%，纳指直接飙到5.61%，硬是把"连涨"的势头续到了五六个月。可咱们做中长线的，不能光看数字堆出 来的漂亮，就像逛菜市场，人挤人的热闹劲儿底下，得留神脚边有没有没扫干净的"香蕉皮"。 凌晨刷到美股收高的新闻，估计不少朋友第一眼就盯着"道指标普连涨五个月"乐，觉得这市场势头挺稳。但我蹲在屏幕前翻完细节，做了20年财经记者的直 觉就冒出来了——热闹背后，"政府停摆"这四个字才是真该攥在手里琢磨的，今天就跟大伙儿掏心窝子扒透这事儿。 现在这"香蕉皮"，就是眼看要炸的政府停摆。以前大家都觉得这事儿跟股市隔着一层，停就停了，过两天就好，但这次不一样——华尔街早就绷着弦呢：担 心劳动力市场慢慢冷下来，怕估值太高的股票撑不住，连"滞胀"的苗头都在盯着。这会儿政府要是真停摆，最要命的是数据断了档。美国劳工部都明说了， 一停摆，劳工统计局就全停，本周五要发的9月非农就业报告直接黄了——这报告可不是随便看看的，美联储下个月开会定利率 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The main trend of gold and silver continues to rise, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.89% and COMEX silver by 6.92% this week [1][2] - The strong performance of precious metals is supported by robust US GDP data, which led to a temporary adjustment followed by a recovery in upward momentum [2] - The expectation of a slow bull market for gold with decreasing volatility in the future is noted, alongside a positive outlook for the precious metals sector due to ongoing de-dollarization and ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Copper - Supply disruptions are expected to elevate the price center for copper, with Freeport Indonesia lowering its Q4 copper production guidance to "negligible levels" and reducing the 2026 annual production forecast by 35% [2] - The global electrolytic copper balance may reverse by late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, with domestic consumption expected to rise as the peak season approaches, potentially boosting copper prices [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The outlook for aluminum prices remains positive despite a slight decline of 0.24% this week, with expectations of increased downstream consumption due to seasonal factors [3] - The impact of US aluminum tariffs is considered limited, and the long-term view suggests that the price center for electrolytic aluminum may continue to rise as inventories are depleted [3] Group 4: Lithium - Lithium prices have seen a slight increase driven by pre-holiday stocking, with demand expected to maintain high growth due to significant contracts signed by major companies [4] - The supply-demand balance for lithium is anticipated to improve marginally, with strategic importance highlighted by government discussions regarding lithium projects [4] Group 5: Uranium - Uranium prices have surged to $83 per pound, primarily due to continued purchasing by SPUT funds, indicating the start of an upward cycle [4] - The fourth quarter is historically a peak procurement season, with expectations for sustained price increases as nuclear power operators begin to purchase [4] Group 6: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend following the implementation of export bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite initial market reactions [4] - The market is adjusting to the new policies, with significant price increases observed across various cobalt products, indicating a tightening supply situation in China [4]

Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US is experiencing a significant economic crisis despite being the world's largest economy, leading to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the first time this year [2][4] - The current economic environment in the US is characterized by "stagflation," with rising inflation and a cooling economy, raising doubts about the rationale for continued rate cuts [5] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is increasing, with interest rate decisions becoming more influenced by political considerations rather than economic fundamentals [5][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a high probability of two more rate cuts in November and December, totaling 75 basis points, but the path remains uncertain [8] - There are concerns about the erosion of the Federal Reserve's "policy independence" due to political pressures, particularly with the upcoming departure of Powell and the ongoing influence of Trump [8] Group 3: US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China competition is marked by threats of increased tariffs and sanctions, with both sides engaging in strategic maneuvers [10] - China's strategy focuses on maintaining communication to avoid misjudgments while not being swayed by the fluctuating policies of the Trump administration [10] Group 4: European Debt Crisis - The UK is facing a severe bond sell-off, with long-term bond yields reaching 5.7%, indicating a crisis of confidence in the sustainability of European debt [12][14] - The European Union is struggling with a fiscal crisis, where the choice between cutting public welfare or increasing debt leads to a political deadlock [14][16] - The European Central Bank's rate cuts are unlikely to resolve the fundamental issues, potentially exacerbating market concerns and leading to higher bond yields [18] Group 5: Comparative Analysis of US and European Debt - The credit foundations of US and European debt are fundamentally different, with US debt supported by its reserve currency status and military strength, while European debt lacks a unified fiscal structure [18] - The outflow of "low-risk funds" from European debt is currently flowing back into US debt as a safe haven, indicating a divergence in market behavior [18] Group 6: Future Outlook - The upcoming months will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and the potential spread of European debt risks [20] - A rational public response and personal asset planning are essential in navigating the current macroeconomic landscape [20]