今天分享的是：中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能源冲击与2030战略棋局报告 报告共计：25页 《中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能源冲击与2030战略棋局报告》指出，中国炼化行业正面临产能扩张与能源结构转型的双重驱动，呈现规模化、一 体化与绿色化发展趋势。2025年炼油一次产能将突破9.8亿吨/年，山东裕龙石化、中海石油宁波大榭石化等2024-2025年投产项目聚焦炼化一体化，配套乙 烯及下游化工装置，提升化工原料自给率；2026-2030年规划项目如华锦阿美石化、福建古雷炼化二期等则进一步扩大规模，布局高端化工新材料。 市场格局方面，长三角、东北地区通过产能整合提升区域供应能力，头部企业凭借大型项目抢占高端市场，而中小型地炼面临成本压力与新能源替代冲 击，预计2025年前30%将重组或转型。产品结构上，成品油收率从2023年62%降至2030年50%以下，聚烯烃等化工品向高端化升级，高端聚烯烃自给率有 望从35%提升至60%。 产能扩张与转型 新能源汽车爆发导致成品油需求增速放缓，倒逼炼厂"减油增化"，化工产能释放加剧市场竞争，需平衡炼油与化工业务协同发展。未来行业将以深度炼化 一体化为核心，拓展新能源、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Shenghong, is facing significant financial challenges due to high debt levels and poor performance in the petrochemical industry, leading to substantial losses and a decline in the wealth of its founders [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Dongfang Shenghong reported total liabilities of 176.5 billion yuan, with interest-bearing debt exceeding 140 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 82.17% from 81.66% at the end of 2024 [1][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 137.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.97% year-on-year, and reported a net loss of 2.297 billion yuan, marking a 420.33% decline compared to the previous year [2][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 17.5% year-on-year decline in revenue to 30.31 billion yuan, although net profit increased by 38.19% to 341 million yuan [2]. Industry Context - The petrochemical industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a 20.7% decline in total profits in 2023 and an additional 8.8% drop in 2024, resulting in over 70% of companies facing losses [1][8]. - Despite a slight increase in revenue for the overall oil and chemical industry in 2024, profits fell by 8.8%, indicating a significant decline in industry profitability [8]. Debt and Financial Pressure - Dongfang Shenghong's financial situation is exacerbated by high inventory levels, with a recorded inventory of 22.167 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 and cumulative inventory impairment losses of 3.92 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [10]. - The company has experienced significant cash outflows for investments, totaling over 100 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, and has raised approximately 182.3 billion yuan since its listing [10][11]. - Financial expenses increased by 39.49% in 2024, reaching 4.874 billion yuan, further straining profitability [10]. Business Strategy - Dongfang Shenghong has diversified its production capabilities with a total refining capacity of 16 million tons per year and various production routes for olefins, aiming to mitigate risks associated with industry cycles [12].

中国炼化行业重构：炼化一 体化、新能源冲击与2030 战略棋局 参考资料：王钊、王能.中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能 源冲击与2030战略棋局卓越咨询能源观察 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zlifP8LzOhVyTR16POFhLg. 整理推荐：中国化工学会烃资源评价加工与利用专委会田松柏 ENTS 01 05 未来新能源冲击与化工产能释放 行业现状与背景 的挑战 02 关键项目布局与产能升级 06 未来炼油市场发展方向 03 市场格局变革与行业影响 07 结语 04 未来炼化一体化改造后的需求变 化 Part01 行业现状与背景 产能扩张与转型 产能增长 2025年中国炼油一次产能将突破9.8亿吨/年，未来五年内仍将有大炼化项目陆续投产，产能扩张态势 明显。 转型驱动 o 在能源结构转型与化工产业升级的双重驱动下，炼油行业以大型炼化一体化项目为核心，推动产能结 构性升级。 发展趋势 行业呈现规模化、一体化与绿色化发展态势，这是未来5-10年的发展主线。 Part02 关键项目布局与产能升 级 2024-2025年投产项目 该项自投产2×1000万吨/年常减压装置，配套150万吨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Rongsheng Petrochemical's major shareholder has significantly increased its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in the long-term investment value of the domestic capital market and the company's future stability [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical's major shareholder, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group, has cumulatively increased its holdings by 203,554,992 shares, accounting for 2.01% of the total share capital, with a total investment amount close to 2 billion yuan [1] - The share buyback is part of three planned phases, with the third phase currently ongoing, involving an investment scale of 1 to 2 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the 2024 earnings presentation, Rongsheng Petrochemical emphasized its commitment to long-term value creation through technological innovation, green transformation, and strategic layout, enhancing its operational efficiency and global competitiveness [2] - The company reported a significant improvement in Q1 2025 net profit, achieving 588 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62%, driven by the recovery of crude oil cracking price differentials [2] - The company is actively expanding its product matrix to include differentiated, high-end, and green products, covering various fields such as new energy materials and synthetic resins [2] Group 3 - Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities noted that the adjustment of fuel oil policies is leading to the exit of marginal refining capacity, which will further highlight the value of Rongsheng Petrochemical's quality assets [3] - The collaboration with Saudi Aramco is expected to enhance the company's global layout and strengthen its risk resistance capabilities in cross-border operations [3] - The company's accelerated industrial layout and expansion into green product matrices are anticipated to improve profitability and long-term investment value [3]

从供给端来看，相较国内成品油供需宽松状态，东南亚成品油市场存在较大缺口。根据Platts数据， 2020-2023年期间，受公共卫生事件和能源结构转型的影响，东南亚和澳洲地区已有超过3000万吨的炼 能退出市场。根据IEA数据，2025年是炼油厂关闭的高峰年份，总计有80万桶/日的产能将停止运行，随 着产能的持续出清，预计到2026年，东南亚成品油供需缺口将继续扩大至6800万吨。 5月14日，恒逸石化（000703）举行2024年年度网上业绩说明会。在此之前，恒逸石化披露2024年年报 和2025年一季报显示，公司2024年实现营业总收入1254.63亿元，归母净利润2.34亿元；2025年一季度实 现营业收入271.68亿元，归母净利润5149.48万元。 恒逸石化的主要业务包括炼化板块、PTA板块及聚酯板块。恒逸石化董事长、总裁邱奕博在业绩说明会 上介绍说，炼化板块方面，公司文莱炼化项目位于文莱，其生产的成品油主要在东南亚及澳洲等地销 售。从需求端来看，东南亚是全球最大的成品油净进口市场，该地区GDP增速大幅高于全球平均水平， 在石油需求增长方面展现出强劲潜力。从供给端来看，东南亚成品油市场存在较大缺口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of China's acrylonitrile industry is driven by both state-owned enterprises and private companies, with production capacity expected to continue expanding in 2024 due to upstream raw material growth and downstream demand [2]. Industry Capacity Growth - China's acrylonitrile production capacity increased from 2.355 million tons in 2019 to 4.399 million tons in 2023, with a projected capacity of approximately 4.839 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2]. Industry Definition and Classification - Acrylonitrile, with the chemical formula C3H3N, is a colorless liquid with a pungent odor, used primarily in the production of polyacrylonitrile fibers, ABS resin, and nitrile rubber [4]. Regulatory Framework - The main regulatory bodies for the acrylonitrile industry include the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which oversee policy formulation and implementation [6]. Industry Policies - Recent government policies aim to promote the development of the acrylonitrile industry, including the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Green Innovation and High-Quality Development in the Refining Industry" released in October 2023, which encourages product structure adjustments and production technology upgrades [7][8]. Industry Barriers - The acrylonitrile industry faces several barriers, including: - **Technical Barriers**: The production process requires advanced technology and expertise, making it challenging for new entrants [10]. - **Market Barriers**: Established companies dominate the market, creating a competitive landscape that is difficult for newcomers to penetrate [11]. - **Financial Barriers**: High initial investment costs for production facilities and technology pose significant challenges for new entrants [12]. Industry Chain Analysis - The acrylonitrile industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (liquid ammonia, acetonitrile, propylene), midstream production, and downstream applications, with ABS becoming the largest demand sector due to growth in the automotive and home appliance industries [13].

证券简称：荣盛石化 证券代码：002493 荣盛石化股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-001 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 公司董事长李水荣先生 | | | 独立董事郑晓东先生 | | 活动参与人员 | 财务总监王亚芳女士 | | | 董事会秘书全卫英女士 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 7 日 15:00~16:00 | | 地点 | 全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（http://ir.p5w.net） | | 形式 | 网络远程 | | | 荣盛石化于 年 月 日 在全景网全 2025 5 7 15:00~16:00 | | | 景•路演天下（http://rs.p5w.net）举行 2024 年年度业绩 | | | 网上说明会。本次交流活动采用网络远程的方式举行， | | | 问答环节主要问题如下： | | 交流内容及具体问答 | 问题 1：请问贵公司未来盈利增长的主要驱 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 ➢ 风险提示：原油价格剧烈波动；下游需求不及预期；新材料项目落地不及预期。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 289094.84 | 325111.61 | 326475.16 | 333855.87 | 348443.90 | 364351.06 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.31% | 12.46% | 0.42% | 2.26% | 4.37% | 4.57% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3340.16 | 1158.15 | 724.48 | 2887.98 | 3831.54 | 4876.71 | | 同比增速(%) | -73.95% | -65.33% | -37.44% | 298.63% | 32.67% | 27.28% | | 毛利率(%) | 10.81% | 11.49% | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨东方盛虹（000301.SZ） [Table_Title] 一季度业绩改善，炼化景气度企稳 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 1376.75 亿元，同比下降 1.97%；归母净利润-22.97 亿元，同比下 降 420.33%；扣非归母净利润-26.54 亿元，同比下降 1322.44%。2024 年第四季度营业收入 293.73 亿元，同比下降 20.10%，环比下降 17.18%；归母净利润-8.78 亿元，同比减亏；扣非 归母净利润-12.60 亿元，同比减亏。2025 年第一季度营业收入 303.09 亿元，同比下降 17.50%， 环比下降 3.19%；归母净利润 3.41 亿元，同比上升 38.19%；扣非归母净利润 2.93 亿元，同 比上升 239.46%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579 ...

本报记者 李哲 北京报道 受国际油价低位震荡、海外项目亏损等因素影响，恒逸石化（000703.SZ）2024年营收下滑，净利近 乎"腰斩"。 近日，恒逸石化披露2024年财报显示，其实现营收1254.63亿元，同比下滑7.85%；归母净利润2.34亿 元，同比下滑46.28%。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，恒逸石化文莱一期炼化项目全年亏损10.3亿元，成为业绩的最大"累赘"。 进入2025年，受国际油价震荡下行等因素影响，恒逸石化业绩进一步下挫。 2025年一季度财报显示，公司营收同比下滑14.18%，净利润同比下滑87.55%。 营收净利双降 截至2024年年底，恒逸石化已形成800万吨/年炼化设计产能（文莱炼化项目一期）、2150万吨/年参控 股PTA（精对苯二甲酸）产能、1285万吨/年参控股聚合产能、30万吨/年PIA（聚酰亚胺气凝胶）设计产 能及40万吨/年己内酰胺参股产能，依托"炼油—芳烃—聚酯"垂直整合优势，实现从原油加工到化纤产 品的全链条布局。 从产量数据来看，2024年，恒逸石化炼油产品产量为618.61万吨，化工产品产量为200.56万吨；控股子 公司浙江逸盛的PTA产品产量为260.96 ...