1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, corn prices showed a volatile trend. The USDA supply - demand report in June had a limited impact on US corn, being neutral, while the planting area report significantly increased the planned planting area of US corn. Combined with the fast sowing speed of the new - season US corn and favorable weather in the production areas, the price of US corn was under pressure and trended weakly. In China, the continuous wheat harvest in June led to low wheat prices, triggering the state - reserve minimum purchase price, and many local reserves started to enter the market to buy wheat, supporting the wheat price. Corn was in the off - season period, with fewer shipments from traders, low vehicle arrivals at Shandong processing enterprises, and firm spot prices in Northeast China [6]. - In terms of demand, feed enterprises had relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of breeding demand restricted restocking, so feed enterprises purchased as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry was entering the off - season, with low processing profits [6]. - Strategy: US corn will continue to decline to find the bottom. The entry of reserves into the market to buy wheat supports the firm wheat price. In the short term, the shipments of domestic corn traders are gradually decreasing, but the market is worried about the state - reserve corn selling, so the short - term corn price may fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, as grain sources are gradually transferred to channels, channel dealers hold back supplies, port inventories continue to be consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, supporting the bullish expectation for corn. However, domestic corn will still face the situation of traders selling in the later period, and it is expected that the corn price will decline from its high at the end of the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - As of June 30, CBOT07 corn closed at 409.00 cents per bushel, down 14.00 points from the previous month's close, a monthly decline of 3.31%. C2509 corn closed at 2,378 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, a monthly increase of 0.81% [11]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Balance Sheet - US Corn - In the 2024/25 season, US corn exports increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion bushels. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased by 50 million bushels to 17.21 billion bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels [12][13]. 3.2.2. Foreign - US Corn Growth - As of the week ending June 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72%, 72% in the previous week, and 69% in the same period last year. The emergence rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, 96% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 98%. The silking rate was 4%, the same as in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 3%. As of the week ending June 24, about 16% of the US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 6% in the same period last year [16]. 3.2.3. Foreign - US Corn Exports - As of the week ending June 19, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 741,000 tons, down from 904,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of corn in the 2025/2026 season were 306,000 tons, up from 155,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales of US corn this season reached 54.7585 million tons, accounting for 81.35% of the June USDA report's estimate [19]. 3.2.4. Domestic Supply - Imported Corn - In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn and corn flour, a year - on - year decrease of 81.6%. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of corn and corn flour were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93.7% [24]. 3.2.5. Domestic Demand - Feed Enterprises - With the low - running pig price, pig farming was near the break - even point, and downstream feed was purchased as needed. As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, down 0.48 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [27]. 3.2.6. Domestic Demand - Corn Starch Processing Enterprises - Recently, both enterprises that completed maintenance and those with new maintenance were observed. The regional operating rates of corn starch showed different trends, and the overall industry operating rate declined slightly. As of June 27, the corn processing volume of starch enterprises in June was 2.182 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 825,000 tons (27.44%) and a year - on - year decrease of 289,000 tons (11.70%) [30]. 3.2.7. Domestic Demand - Processing Enterprises' Inventory - As of June 25, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 4.567 million tons, a decrease of 0.54% [32]. 3.2.8. Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.804 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,000 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports in that week was 338,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic - trade corn inventory was 1.133 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 3,000 tons, the same as the previous week; the imported sorghum was 468,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons from the previous week; and the imported barley was 293,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week [36]. 3.3. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market is expected to be loose as major producers' output is likely to increase, and global corn prices will likely maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [2][35] - In the domestic market, before the new crop is launched, the supply - demand situation of corn is generally tight, but considering imports, substitutes, and policy - sourced grains, the overall energy raw material supply is sufficient. After the new corn is launched in the fourth quarter, the corn market may face pressure [2][35] - In the third quarter, the general idea is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the new crop's launch. If the output is good, a bearish view is advisable [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, domestic corn prices rose from a low level. Futures prices rose less than spot prices due to the previous premium. The spot price at Jinzhou Port increased from around 2,050 yuan in early January to around 2,380 yuan. Dalian corn futures led the increase, but the upward trend slowed down in the second quarter with several adjustments [4] 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 US Corn Supply Expected to Increase Significantly - The USDA's May report estimated that the 2025/26 corn planting area in the US will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre and a total output of 15.8 billion bushels. Supply is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year, and consumption will increase steadily, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks [6] 2.2 South American G2 Output Resumes Growth and Exports Are Expected to Increase - In 2024/25, Brazil's corn output is estimated to be 130 million tons, and Argentina's is 50 million tons. For 2025/26, Brazil's output is expected to be 131 million tons, and Argentina's is 53 million tons. Brazil and Argentina's exports are likely to increase in the coming months with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn [9] 2.3 Ukraine's Supply Capacity Expected to Recover - Ukraine's 2025/26 corn output is estimated to be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. Exports will recover to 24 million tons, and ending stocks will be 597,000 tons [11] 2.4 Regions Outside China to See Slightly Looser Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the corn output of regions outside China will be 970 million tons, an increase of about 42 million tons from 2024/25. Exports are expected to be 195 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons from the previous year, and ending stocks will reach 9.407 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons [15] 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 2025/26 Output to Increase Slightly - The 2025/26 domestic corn output is expected to be 296 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year. The total planting area will remain stable with a slight increase, ensuring domestic supply [16] 3.2 Imports: Later Imports to Increase - In 2024/25, the cumulative corn imports were 1.52 million tons, a decrease of about 19.2 million tons from the previous year. The theoretical import profit has expanded, and with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn, later imports are expected to increase significantly [20] 3.3 Demand: Expanding Breeding Scale and Increasing Feed Consumption - From January to May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 130.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding industries will support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [25] 3.4 Deep - processing: Weak Economic Situation and Decreasing Deep - processing Demand - Due to the weak macro - economic situation, the consumption of deep - processed corn products has declined. The corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by about 4% year - on - year. Corn starch deep - processing is not expected to improve significantly [28][30] 3.5 Substitutes: Domestic Raw Materials Key to Filling the Energy Raw Material Gap - Wheat has a substitution advantage over corn in North China, but large - scale substitution has not occurred in the South. The impact of imported substitutes on domestic corn is weakening. The auctions of aged rice and imported corn are uncertain factors [32] 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market is expected to be loose, and domestic corn supply will be tight before the new crop is launched. After the new crop is launched in the fourth quarter, the market may face pressure. In the third quarter, buy on dips; in the fourth quarter, be bearish if the output is good [35]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's corn prices are under pressure due to high yield expectations and financial stress on farmers, with export pace being a key variable influencing future price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Financial Pressure - Optimistic yield expectations for Brazil's second-season corn in 2025 are projected to exceed 96 million tons, driven by favorable weather conditions [2]. - Farmers are facing dual financial challenges, leading to an inclination to sell corn early to cover costs, as they anticipate rising soybean prices [2]. - The large area planted with corn and limited storage capacity are contributing to increased selling pressure, with significant sales expected unless prices fall below break-even levels [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - Domestic demand is transitioning between summer crops and second-season crops, with stable feed and ethanol consumption insufficient to absorb the supply pressure of over 90 million tons [3]. - An estimated export volume of over 40 million tons is necessary for supply-demand balance, with USDA predicting a corn production of 131 million tons and exports of 43 million tons for the 2025/26 season [3]. - Current corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade have not shown significant increases, and export prices are hovering between 67 to 71 Brazilian Reais per bag, indicating a wait-and-see approach in the market [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations and Risks - Analysts expect a significant acceleration in port collection rhythm starting in July, with potential international market disruptions possibly benefiting Brazilian corn exports [4]. - The Brazilian corn market faces risks from increased domestic supply and logistical issues that could impact production and pricing [4]. - Farmers are advised to monitor climate changes, exchange rate fluctuations, and global market demand to adjust their sales strategies accordingly [4].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 后期供应趋紧 震荡偏多对待 玉米 2025 年 05 月 25 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，全球主要生产国玉米播种面积较上年增加，其中美国产量增 加尤为明显，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境。国内方 面，目前基层余粮基本售尽，同时进口玉米及替代性谷物收缩，国内玉米供应偏 紧，贸易持粮主体基于后期偏紧的预期有一定惜售心态。需求端来看，随着养殖 业规模的恢复，饲料产量同比增加明显。但由于小麦对玉米的价差偏低，小麦部 分进入饲料领域，使得饲料中玉米使用比例下降，削弱了饲料产量增加对玉米需 求的拉动效果。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外部贸易环境复杂、居民收入 增速放缓等多重要不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差，深加工利润不佳，行业开 机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。库存方面，目前南北方港口库存开始下降，库 存压力也在减轻。总体来看，后期玉米市场供应趋紧，下方面支撑较为坚实，但 小麦玉米价差偏低、陈稻拍卖及进口放松预期仍会压制玉米的上方空间。操作上， 震荡偏多思路。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...