Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Zhuoyue New Energy, which closed at 47.02 yuan, up 2.93%, with a rolling PE ratio of 31.12, marking a new low in 32 days, and a total market capitalization of 5.642 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the chemical products industry is 50.32, with a median of 45.03, placing Zhuoyue New Energy at the 79th position within the industry [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, nine institutions hold shares in Zhuoyue New Energy, with a total of 2.0252 million shares valued at 9.7 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Zhuoyue New Energy specializes in the production of biodiesel and the utilization of waste oil resources, with main products including various grades of biodiesel, bio-based plasticizers, industrial glycerin, and eco-friendly alkyd resins [1] - The company is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has received multiple accolades, including being a model enterprise for circular economy in Fujian Province [1] - The latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 show an operating revenue of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.39%, and a net profit of 61.3122 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 111.22%, with a sales gross margin of 8.67% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - USDA's reduction of the US soybean area has led to a decline in production, potentially causing a contraction in global supply in the fourth quarter. The US soybean is about to enter the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. The expected US soybean inventory may decrease. [5] - The domestic spot price of Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and stabilized. As the US soybean strengthens, the import cost has increased, and the domestic short - term price has slightly strengthened. Later, attention should be paid to domestic imports. Insufficient vessel bookings for the October shipment may lead to a decline in inventory later. [5] - Affected by the domestic pig "anti - involution" policy (weakening soybean meal demand) and the procurement of Argentine soybean meal by leading enterprises (strengthening supply), the uncertainty of the results of China - US trade consultations may cause significant fluctuations. China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in later imports. [5] - In the spot market, affected by the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed meal has a price but no volume. The overall domestic inventory is low, and the market is worried about future supply contraction. It is regarded as bullish in the medium term. [5] - International factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, poor progress in China - US negotiations, and the weakening of crude oil may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. Domestically, the oil mills have a large inventory pressure of soybean oil, and the demand for biodiesel is variable. The decline in crude oil may be negative for oils and fats. [38] - In the current rapeseed sector, there is a lack of new themes, the inventory depletion is slow during the off - season of demand, and the futures price is under pressure. However, the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decline in rapeseed oil supply. [40] - The Indonesian B50 plan has been delayed, which may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. The inventory accumulation in the MPOB report is less than expected, and the overseas palm oil supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory accumulation has not ended. Overseas biodiesel may be weakened by the decline in crude oil, which is short - term negative for oils and fats. Domestically, the inventory is high, accumulating month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation is weakening. The increase in import cost drives the price. If the overseas market weakens, the domestic market is expected to follow the decline. [46] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal and Related - **US Soybean**: USDA has reduced the US soybean area, leading to a decline in production and a potential contraction in global supply in the fourth quarter. The US soybean is about to enter the harvest period, and the inventory is expected to decrease. [5] - **Dalian Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. With the strengthening of the US soybean, the import cost has increased, and the short - term price has slightly strengthened. There may be a decline in inventory later due to insufficient vessel bookings for the October shipment. [5] - **Domestic Factors Affecting Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" policy for pigs and the procurement of Argentine soybean meal by leading enterprises, along with the uncertainty of China - US trade consultations, may cause price fluctuations. [5] Rapeseed Meal and Related - **Spot Market**: Affected by anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed meal has a price but no volume, with low inventory and concerns about future supply contraction. It is bullish in the medium term. [5] Oils and Fats Soybean Oil - **Futures and Market**: International factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, poor China - US negotiations, and weak crude oil may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. Domestically, oil mills have large inventory pressure, and the demand for biodiesel is variable. The decline in crude oil is negative for soybean oil. [38] - **Spot Market**: This week's procurement was light, and the average daily factory sales decreased week - on - week. After August, due to the support of procurement costs, the basis is difficult to adjust easily. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans have arrived at ports, there is uncertainty in China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. [38] Palm Oil - **International and Domestic Situation**: The Indonesian B50 plan delay may weaken the biodiesel expectation. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is less than expected, and overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Overseas biodiesel may be weakened by crude oil decline, which is short - term negative for palm oil. Domestically, inventory is high and accumulating, and supply - demand is weakening. Higher import costs drive prices, and if overseas weakens, domestic may follow. [46] Rapeseed Oil - **Market Situation**: There is a lack of new themes in the rapeseed sector, slow inventory depletion during the off - season of demand, and the futures price is under pressure. However, anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply. In the spot market, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, terminal acceptance is low, and transactions are weak in many places, with the basis continuing to decline slightly. [40][41]

Group 1 - The palm oil market is experiencing intensified volatility due to the impact of U.S. non-farm employment data, OPEC+ production decisions, and palm oil production and sales data from Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to fluctuating prices at the beginning of August [1][3] - As of August 7, the average spot price for 24-degree palm oil in the domestic market was 9040 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week but with an increased fluctuation range, reaching a maximum amplitude of 2.46% during the week [1][3] Group 2 - The international crude oil market is under significant pressure, negatively affecting palm oil prices. The unexpected weakness in U.S. non-farm employment data has dampened market sentiment, raising concerns about economic prospects and increasing risk aversion [3][5] - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, contributing to increased market supply and downward pressure on international crude oil prices, which settled at $63.88 per barrel on August 7, down $5.38 or 7.77% from July 31 [3][5] Group 3 - Despite bearish expectations for Malaysian palm oil fundamentals, strong export demand from Indonesia is supporting prices, with June inventory showing a continued decline expectation, leading to higher Indonesian pricing and increased import costs for palm oil [5][6] - The strengthening of soybean oil prices, driven by significant demand from the Indian market, is also providing upward support for palm oil prices [5][6] Group 4 - In the domestic market, palm oil buying has slowed down recently, with a slight decrease in port inventories, indicating manageable overall supply pressure. The upcoming holiday stocking period in late August is expected to improve market trading atmosphere, potentially leading to an upward shift in spot prices [6] - The forecast for August suggests that the average spot price for 24-degree palm oil in the domestic market will range between 8900 and 9250 yuan/ton, indicating an anticipated upward trend [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 9 to close at 4,254 ringgit/ton, a 0.21% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 70 to close at 8,980 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 126 to close at 8,400 yuan/ton, a 1.52% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 9,574 yuan/ton, a 0.52% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.47 to close at 52.43 cents/pound, a 2.73% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 12.9 to close at 670 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.89% decrease [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. Palm oil was still in the process of oscillatory adjustment. On one hand, there was long - term support from the biodiesel policy. On the other hand, market institutions expected the Malaysian palm oil inventory in July to increase to 225,000 tons, suppressing short - term price space. Indian palm oil imports decreased in July, and due to the cost - effectiveness advantage, soybean oil substitution imports increased, with some coming from China. Additionally, domestic soybean oil trading volume increased, and the expectation of tight soybean supply in the distant future supported soybean oil, making it relatively strong [3][5]. - Macroscopically, the leaders of the US and Russia will meet in Alaska on the 15th to seek a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the process is expected to be tortuous. The US dollar index is oscillating at a relatively low level; oil prices dropped significantly during the week, mainly because OPEC+ is expected to increase production, tariffs affect demand prospects, and there may be a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Fundamentally, waiting for the release of today's MPOB report, the abundant supply of Malaysian palm oil suppresses the upside space, while the increasing long - term demand for biodiesel provides support. In the short term, palm oil may oscillate and adjust [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 53.9 cents/pound to 52.43 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.47 cents/pound and a 2.73% decline; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 4,245 ringgit/ton to 4,254 ringgit/ton, an increase of 9 ringgit/ton and a 0.21% increase; the DCE palm oil 09 contract rose from 8,910 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton and a 0.79% increase; the DCE soybean oil 09 contract rose from 8,274 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan/ton and a 1.52% increase; the CZCE rapeseed oil 09 contract rose from 9,524 yuan/ton to 9,574 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton and a 0.52% increase [3][4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat market continued to fluctuate, with palm oil in an adjustment phase due to long - term biodiesel policy support and the expectation of increased Malaysian palm oil inventory in July. Indian palm oil imports decreased in July, and soybean oil substitution imports increased. Domestic soybean oil trading volume increased, and the expectation of tight soybean supply in the future supported soybean oil [3][5]. - According to Reuters survey, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in July 2025 will be 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% month - on - month increase; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an 8% month - on - month increase; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase [6]. - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 9.01%, with different trends in different regions [6]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in July 2025 showed a decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Indian palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. Total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [8]. - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous estimate. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia in the 2024/25 season is 48.8 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons [8]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 234,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1174 million tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8,600 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3,400 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 661,500 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 239,500 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 30,880 tons, compared with 49,300 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 437 tons, compared with 526 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - As of June 30 this year, 5.03 million hectares or 89.6% of Malaysia's oil palm plantation area has obtained the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification [10]. - The Malaysian government plans to increase the allocation for the palm oil replanting project to 1.4 billion ringgit (about $331 million) from 2026 to 2030 to accelerate the national replanting process, especially to support small - scale farmers. In 2024, Malaysia's national replanting rate was only 2%, far below the government's target of 4%. This year, the government has provided 100 million ringgit (about $24 million) in subsidy funds to encourage small - scale farmers to participate in replanting [10]. - The estimated palm oil production in Thailand in the 2024/25 season is 3.52 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.02 - 4.02 million tons. In May 2025, Thailand's palm oil production increased to 520,000 tons, a 23.5% increase from April. The cumulative production in the first five months of 2025 reached 1.52 million tons, a 9.6% increase from the same period in 2024 [11]. - The Nigerian vice - president revealed that the country's president has ordered the planting of 100 million oil palm trees and plans to revitalize the cocoa industry as part of economic diversification and agricultural productivity improvement [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil plantation giant, Sime Darby Plantation Group, expects the price of crude palm oil to stabilize at around 4,000 ringgit per ton (about $946.52) for the rest of this year, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel mandatory blending policy [12]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of the Malaysian palm oil main contract, the US soybean oil main contract, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of soybean oil and palm oil, the price spreads between different oils, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [13][14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market in Indonesia is currently strong ahead of the Diwali festival, driven by increased import demand from India and support from biodiesel demand in Indonesia [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased oilseed consumption in India is expected as the Diwali festival approaches, leading to higher palm oil imports [1] - South American soybean oil exports are anticipated to slow down, increasing reliance on palm oil [1] - The biodiesel demand in Indonesia is providing additional support to the palm oil market [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The U.S. biodiesel compliance obligations for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be finalized by November, with current market expectations of a decrease in import raw material subsidies [1] - Palm oil prices are not likely to drop significantly before the establishment of Indonesian inventories, with a gradual upward movement in price bottoms [1] - However, sustained price increases will depend on continued purchases from demand countries like India [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The 2025/26 sunflower seed production is expected to increase, leading to higher sunflower oil exports [1] - Sunflower oil from the Black Sea region is set to enter the market in September, creating competition for palm oil [1] - After the Diwali festival in September and October, palm oil import demand from India is expected to decline, potentially leading to weaker demand and a market turning point due to high inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia [1]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fraud incident of US non - farm payroll data from May to June in 2025 has multi - dimensional and differentiated impacts on the global commodity market, reshaping the pricing logic of new energy metals, iron ore, and oilseed agricultural products through the transmission chain of "economic expectation revision - monetary policy shift - industrial policy game." Different varieties show differentiation due to policy sensitivity differences. Investors need to pay close attention to the September Fed interest - rate meeting and China's "dual - carbon" policy details, which may be the key nodes for secondary pricing of the market [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Futures: The Tug - of - War between Demand Expectation Collapse and Geopolitical Conflicts - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June exposed the real weakness of the US job market, causing the market's expectation of crude oil demand to cool rapidly. The revised non - farm data showed that the new employment in May and June was only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, far lower than the previously announced 144,000 and 147,000. Brent crude oil futures price once fell below $70/barrel after the incident was exposed, a decline of about 15% from the May high. The long - term demand - side impact depends on the pace of the US economic soft landing and the actual demand recovery in China. If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected in the fourth quarter, it may help improve the macro - expectation and support the oil price center [6]. - Geopolitical factors partially offset the demand concerns. OPEC + members have agreed in principle to significantly increase crude oil production again in September, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day. Coupled with the rising expectation of the US imposing a 10% tariff on imported crude oil, international oil prices rebounded to around $75 in July. The crude oil market is in a volatile pattern of "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [6]. - In August, the supply side may increase to a certain extent, but the increase may be limited. The demand side is supported by the traditional peak season in the US, and the inventory - reduction trend is expected to continue, providing bottom support for oil prices. However, the pressure of OPEC + production increase still exists, and long - term crude oil prices face upward pressure. Domestic chemical futures are expected to be differentiated due to raw material costs and supply - demand factors [7][8]. 2. Gold Futures Regain Momentum: Driven by Both Safe - Haven Premium and Monetary Policy Shift - The market trust crisis triggered by the fraud of US non - farm data from May to June and the expectation of Fed policy shift jointly pushed the gold price to break through the historical high. After the release of weak non - farm data, the dollar index tumbled, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 46% to 73% [10]. - Spot gold soared after the non - farm data was announced, rising more than $70 and closing up 2.21% at $3362.88/ounce. COMEX gold futures broke through $2600/ounce. Central bank gold - buying behavior further strengthened the safe - haven attribute of gold. Goldman Sachs predicted that if the concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, the gold price may break through $3150/ounce by the end of 2025 [10][11]. 3. Copper Futures: The Intensified Game between Industrial Attributes and Policy Disturbances - The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper pushed up the LME copper price, while the fraud of US non - farm data weakened the global industrial demand logic for copper. In June 2025, the global refined copper inventory increased by 12% compared with May, but the copper price premium in the US Midwest remained at a high level of $450/ton. The COMEX copper price closed at $9200/ton in July, down 7% from the May high but still higher than the beginning - of - year level [13]. 4. Aluminum Futures: The Balance between Cost Support and Demand Contraction - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June led to concerns about global and US economic recession, causing the LME aluminum price to fall by 4% in June. However, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices pushed up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, supporting the price to stabilize above $2000/ton. The adjustment of China's export structure was a key variable. The 22% increase in aluminum product exports to ASEAN in the first half of the year partially offset the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand re - balance reduced the aluminum price volatility from 18% in May to 12% in June [14]. 5. New Energy Metal Futures: The Game between Cost Support and Capacity Clearance 5.1 Lithium Carbonate: Bottom - Range Fluctuation and Policy - Driven Expectations - The fraud of US non - farm data increased the market's concern about the global economic slowdown, and the expected demand for new energy vehicles decreased. The lithium carbonate price fell to the industry's cash - cost line of 60,000 yuan/ton from May to June. However, China's "dual - carbon" policy and the resilient demand in the energy - storage field partially offset the downward pressure. The volatility of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high since October 2024. After the price decline, the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. 5.2 Polysilicon: The Tug - of - War between Inventory Reduction and Technological Iteration - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a downward adjustment of the expected photovoltaic installation, causing the polysilicon price to fall below 35,000 yuan/ton in June, a decline of 18% from the May high. The technological iteration of the increasing penetration rate of N - type silicon wafers supported the premium of high - purity polysilicon. The global polysilicon inventory decreased from 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons in June 2025, but the inventory - reduction speed was lower than expected. The expectation of China imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon exports further suppressed market sentiment [20]. 6. Iron Ore: The Tug - of - War between Supply Expectations and Demand Resilience 6.1 Contradiction between Short - Term Demand Support and Long - Term Capacity Impact - After the fraud of US non - farm data, the market's concern about China's crude - steel production control increased. From May to July, the blast - furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the daily average hot - metal output in July was above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore market demand. The price of iron ore fluctuated between $100 - 105/ton. The expected production of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea at the end of 2025 will have a significant impact on the global iron ore supply pattern, forming a long - term supply suppression. The term structure of the iron ore futures market has changed from the Contango structure to the Back structure [23][24]. 6.2 Superimposed Impact of Policy Game and Green Transformation - The increasing expectation of China imposing a 5% tariff on imported iron ore has raised the spot premium of iron ore. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has changed the iron ore market structure, increasing the demand for high - grade ore. The "near - strong, far - weak" pattern of the iron ore market has become more prominent [25]. 7. Agricultural Product Futures: Indirect Transmission through the Dollar Cycle and Trade Policy 7.1 Soybeans: Double Suppression of South American Bumper Harvest and Tariff Game - The fraud of US non - farm data and the expected South American soybean bumper harvest (expected output of 165 million tons) led to a 4.2% decline in the US soybean futures price in June. China's 10% tariff on US soybeans increased the import cost and reduced the non - commercial net long positions. The sharp decrease in soybean arrivals in China from October will lead to a decline in the operating rate and processing volume of domestic soybean oil mills. The basis of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures is at a five - year low, and the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are likely to rise [29][31]. 7.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The Tug - of - War between Trade Barriers and Inventory Cycle - China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal in May led to a sharp increase in the coastal rapeseed meal price. The policy of allowing the "domestic sales" of bonded - area rapeseed meal in June forced traders to accelerate exports, reducing domestic inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations may lead to a shortage of rapeseed arrivals in China after October, which will boost the prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [32]. 7.3 Biodiesel Policy: Linkage between Energy Attributes and Agricultural Products - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a decrease in the US biodiesel blending ratio of soybean oil, causing the US soybean oil futures price to fall. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) supported the rebound of rapeseed oil futures. In the long term, palm oil may be a new buying opportunity after a sharp decline [33][34]. 7.4 Sugar: The Expectation of a Medium - to - Long - Term Weak Trend Remains - The impact of non - farm data fraud on sugar prices is limited. The ICE raw - sugar futures price is mainly affected by fundamental factors. The global sugar supply mainly depends on the Brazilian sugar - producing area. The long - term trend of raw - sugar prices may be weak [35][36]. 7.5 Cotton: Double Suppression of Cotton Demand - The fraud of US non - farm data and the political turmoil led to a decline in the cotton futures price. The economic slowdown and the decline in crude oil prices dragging down the price of polyester (a cotton substitute) have double - suppressed cotton demand [37]. 8. The Global Market Will Face Structural Changes such as Policy Reconstruction 8.1 Reconstruction of Global and US - European Monetary Policy Expectations - After the significant downward revision of US non - farm data from May to June, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2025 has increased from 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The downward revision of non - farm data is to create momentum for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September [38]. 8.2 The US May Enter a Cliff - like Interest - Rate Cut in 2026 - After the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the US will enter a period of loose monetary policy. In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed may lose its monetary - policy independence and start a cliff - like interest - rate cut [39]. 8.3 Global Financial Asset Reallocation Benefits Chinese Assets - With the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, international financial assets in the US will flow out, and global financial assets will be reallocated, benefiting Chinese assets [40].

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Short - term soybean meal may oscillate at a low level as US weather improves, while the view that its mid - term center of gravity will shift upward remains unchanged [6] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes of Contracts**: For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3041, the opening price was 3038, the highest price was 3049, the lowest price was 3024, the closing price was 3037, with a decrease of 4 and a decline rate of - 0.13%. The trading volume was 486,810, the open interest was 1,443,501, and the open interest change was 52,869. For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3006, the opening price was 2996, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2989, the closing price was 3010, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.13%. The trading volume was 1,016,300, the open interest was 1,396,108, and the open interest change was - 19,167. For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3044, the opening price was 3033, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3027, the closing price was 3047, with an increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.10%. The trading volume was 113,663, the open interest was 623,912, and the open interest change was - 2,169 [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contracts in the external market oscillated weakly, with the main contract at 990 cents. Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months. The demand outlook for US soybeans was suppressed. The new - season US soybeans were growing well, with a latest weekly good - to - excellent rate of 70%, higher than the market - expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening. Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline inevitably, and US soybeans were running weakly with insufficient recent bullish factors [6] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, currently in a state of wide reality and tight expectation. The import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As the time approaches, there are topics and themes for soybean meal to rise, but it should also be noted that China has started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans has recently decreased. Although there is an expectation of an increase in the cost of imported soybeans in China in the fourth quarter, the imagination space may be relatively limited [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 778,700 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2024/25 market year was 349,200 tons, a significant increase from the previous week and a 4% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market previously estimated an increase of 100,000 - 300,000 tons. The net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 market year was 429,500 tons, and the market previously estimated a net increase of 100,000 - 600,000 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 499,600 tons, a 65% increase from the previous week and a 63% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The new sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year were 365,700 tons, and the new sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 market year were 429,500 tons [9] - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [9] - **EIA Data**: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released on Thursday showed that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in May increased to 1.025 billion pounds. In April, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 829 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest raw material for biodiesel production in the US [10] 3. Data Overview - Not provided with specific data summaries in the content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]

Report Information - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (August 1, 2025) [1] - Author: Bi Hui - Department: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Contact Information: Phone 0411 - 84807266, Email bihui@bcqhgs.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The short - term prices of both soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to run with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, while the medium - term prices are expected to be in a volatile state. For soybean meal, the overall performance is relatively more resistant compared to the external market [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [6] - **Core Logic**: The result of China - US negotiations was less than expected, leading to a pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures price fell below the 1000 - cent per bushel mark. The impetus of the domestic long - term procurement gap on market sentiment has weakened [6] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The repeated nature of international oil prices cannot provide continuous support for the oil market. As market sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the weak fundamental situation. The optimistic expectation for biodiesel has weakened, and the rotation market of the oil sector has paused. After the China - US trade negotiations fell short of expectations, the funds for oil - meal arbitrage temporarily avoided [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has reached its short - term upward limit, and investors should be wary of a decline in sentiment [1]. - Soybean oil will trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,936 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.85%, closing price (night session) was 8,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.16%. Trading volume was 673,443 lots, an increase of 45,660 lots, and open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 59,879 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 8,112 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%. Trading volume was 382,038 lots, a decrease of 18,122 lots, and open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closing price (day session) was 9,457 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.37%, closing price (night session) was 9,384 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.77%. Trading volume was 309,343 lots, an increase of 44,920 lots, and open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots [2]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 9,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 64 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 186 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 521 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 792 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% decrease compared to the same period last month [3]. - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to the same period last month [5]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IPA) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) signed a three - year agreement to deepen economic ties and ensure food security [5]. - The US Soybean Export Association (USSEC) believes it is reasonable for India to import soybeans from the US. In 2023/24, India imported 970,000 tons of non - GM soybeans from African countries, but in 2024/25, imports decreased by 84% to 154,000 tons [5]. - In Q2 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and from January to June, production reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). From April to June, soybean oil consumption as a raw material increased by 10% to 1.6 million tons, and its proportion in biodiesel production reached a record 79% in May and June. During this period, Brazil's soybean oil exports remained at 420,000 tons [6]. - After Argentina raised export taxes, soybean sales slowed down last week. As of July 16, farmers had pre - sold 26.64 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 400,000 tons more than the previous week; 450,000 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 30,000 tons more than the previous week; and 40.71 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, 10,000 tons more than the previous week [7]. - Expana raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production this year to 19.6 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons last month and a 16.7% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease from last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase from the same period last year. As of July 20, the commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons [8]. - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased by 4.4 million tons, with EU production decreasing by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed exports were 3.1 million tons, a 16% decrease year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, due to adverse weather, UkrAgro Consult estimated Ukraine's rapeseed production to be between 2.7 - 2.8 million tons [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The supply - demand structure of oils is stable, the expectation of loose supply remains unchanged, and with the support of biodiesel, the prices will continue to oscillate [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,926.00 yuan/ton, a change of +16 yuan or +0.18% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,076.00 yuan/ton, a change of -16.00 yuan or -0.20%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,477.00 yuan/ton, a change of -86.00 yuan or -0.90% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,960.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P09 + 34.00, a change of -6.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,210.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan/ton or -0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 134.00, a change of -4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580.00 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan or -0.83%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 103.00, a change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market News - Russia cuts its 2025 wheat production forecast to 88 - 90 million tons from 90 million tons and its 2025/26 market - year wheat export forecast to 43 - 44 million tons from 45 million tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 reached 1.26 million tons, a high level, but the inventory rose to an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. Kenya became the second - largest buyer of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of 2025, and is expected to import 1.3 million tons for the whole year. Shipments from July 1 - 20 are estimated at 486,404 tons, down 35.99% from the same period last month [2] - China's soybean imports in May and June hit record highs, leading to a short - term accumulation of soybean stocks. Since July, with the decline in imported soybean arrivals and high crushing volume, soybean stocks have declined for two consecutive weeks and are at the lowest level in nearly two months. As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans was 6.832 million tons, a decrease of 272,000 tons from last week [2]