1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and related products: The USDA report this month is neutral to bearish overall, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure persists. After December, China may turn to buying US soybeans, depending on the China - US negotiation progress. The short - term domestic spot market is in a low - level oscillation, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season with large inventory pressure [5]. - For rapeseed and related products: The domestic supply - demand situation has little change, and attention should be paid to the new rapeseed harvest in Canada. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquatic product demand. If there is a negotiation with the US, it may ease the China - Canada relationship and relax rapeseed imports [5]. - For oils: - **Soybean oil**: In the short term, the soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month due to the slowdown of soybean crushing but remains at a high level. The Indonesian B50 plan may fall short of expectations, weakening the biodiesel concept and being unfavorable to oils. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. The market generally shows a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure [36]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report this month shows that the inventory has accumulated more than expected, and the report is neutral to bearish. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel plan may not be realized, weakening the biodiesel theme. The domestic inventory is still in a relatively high accumulation stage. The market trend is oscillatory due to the conflict between the weakening of biodiesel and the seasonal production decline of palm oil [37]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The domestic market is in a slow de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to the changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. The short - term trend is weak, but there is support in the medium term due to reduced imports [38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean and Related Products - **Market fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted US soybean production, global production, and US soybean inventory. China's imports from Brazil and Argentina in October - November exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure continues. After December, the supply from South America may decrease, and China may turn to US soybeans depending on negotiations [5]. - **Price and spread**: There are various price and spread data such as the closing prices of domestic and foreign soybean futures, soybean meal futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), and the price ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) [4][27][60]. - **Inventory and consumption**: Data on soybean crushing volume, soybean inventory in crushing plants, soybean meal inventory, and consumption in China are presented, showing the current supply - demand situation [16][18]. Rapeseed and Related Products - **Market fundamentals**: The domestic supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the new rapeseed harvest in Canada. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed and possible trade negotiations may affect imports [5]. - **Price and spread**: There are data on rapeseed meal futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), rapeseed meal spot basis, and the price ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) [26][29][63]. - **Inventory and consumption**: Data on rapeseed expected arrival volume, rapeseed inventory in crushing plants, rapeseed meal inventory, and consumption are provided [21][24]. Oils - **Soybean oil**: The short - term inventory change is affected by soybean crushing, and factors such as the Indonesian B50 plan and Argentina's exports impact the market. There are data on soybean oil production, consumption, inventory, and price spreads [36][40][67]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report shows inventory changes, and the Indonesian B50 plan and seasonal production decline affect the market trend. Data on palm oil production, consumption, inventory, and price spreads in Malaysia and Indonesia are presented [37][50][64]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle, and anti - dumping measures and trade negotiations affect supply. There are data on rapeseed oil supply, consumption, inventory, and price spreads [38][42][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high, with the import volume of eight major oils increasing by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the import increase is the expected 6.1 million - ton rise in global vegetable oil consumption, more than twice that of the previous year. However, vegetable oil prices will still face pressure in 2025/26 [10]. - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy may significantly reduce its exportable palm - oil supply, and the global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil [11]. - The weather in the US and Brazil will have an impact on crop growth and harvesting. In the US, future rainfall may help relieve drought but may also delay crop harvesting; in Brazil, the current dry weather is beneficial for farmers' field operations [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Futures quotes: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4466.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.36% and an overnight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Currency quotes: The latest prices and percentage changes of the US dollar index and various currencies against the US dollar are provided, including the US dollar index at 98.92 with a 0.05% increase [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices and basis information for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9330, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are provided, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 285 cents per bushel and the CNF quote at 483 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - US soybean - producing states: The future weather (October 28 - November 1) in most of the US soybean - producing states will have temperatures above normal and precipitation above the average. In addition, frost may occur in some areas in the Midwest in the coming days, and precipitation may delay crop harvesting [4][6]. - Brazil: The current dry weather in Brazil is beneficial for farmers' field operations. A new front will bring showers to the southern and central regions this weekend and early next week, which is generally favorable for soybean planting [7][8]. - International Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil: The expected increase in global vegetable oil demand in 2025/26 is mainly due to the strong demand from the biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, traditional exporters may reduce their exports, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy is an unstable factor [10]. - Palm oil in Indonesia: If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will increase, and the exportable supply will decrease significantly [11]. - Soybean: The IGC predicts that the global soybean output in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [12]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity trading volume: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean oil was 11,000 tons, and that of palm oil was 3,600 tons, with a total trading volume of 14,600 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous trading day [16]. - Soybean meal trading and oil - mill operation: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 68.13%, a 0.38% increase from the previous day [16]. - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased. The prices of various agricultural products such as pork, beef, and eggs also changed to different extents [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - Fed rate - cut expectations: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cuts in December is 93.4% [18]. - US economic data: US September existing - home sales totaled 4.06 million units, in line with expectations; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index in October was 6, higher than expected [18]. - EU sanctions: The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and has also sanctioned some Chinese and Indian companies. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [18]. - Domestic News - Exchange rate: On October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0918, a 36 - point decrease (appreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - Central bank operations: On October 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [20]. - Policy news: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [21]. 05 Capital Flows - On October 23, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 27.536 billion yuan, including 3.42 billion yuan into commodity futures, 24.868 billion yuan into stock - index futures, and a net outflow of 729 million yuan from bond futures [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent performance at the origin and demand sides is decent, but there is still a lack of obvious bullish factors. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the oil market, palm oil prices both at home and abroad continued to decline slightly on the day. The p2601 contract of Dalian palm oil still rose and then fell during the day, with four consecutive days of decline in the daily line. In the short term, the price of the p2601 contract is likely to continue the volatile consolidation trend. In the future, attention should be paid to the biodiesel policy, origin data, and the trends of other oils [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 21, 2025, the price of the main palm oil p2601 contract opened lower and consolidated during the day, rose in the afternoon session and then fell with a reduction in positions at the end of the session, closing at 9,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 553,500 lots, an increase of 92,100 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 333,700 lots, a decrease of 10,600 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The total trading volume of all palm oil futures contracts was 628,800 lots, and the total open interest of the variety was 477,500 lots, a decrease of 11,100 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: On the same day, the main 01 contract of the Malaysian BMD futures fell again, closing at 4,508 ringgit/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from the previous day's closing price [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis Data**: The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in China on the day was 9,390 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's average price, and the basis continued to strengthen [5]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the day was 600 lots, with no increase or decrease from the previous day [8]. - **Import Profit**: The cost of importing Malaysian palm oil increased slightly on the day, and the import profit loss deepened [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Export and Production Data**: According to the data of high - frequency institutions ITS and AmSpec Agri, the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of October were 1.0448 million tons and 0.9651 million tons respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 2.5% respectively compared with the same period last month. According to the data of SPPOMA, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of October increased by 1.45%, and the output increased by 2.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Policy**: Indonesian government officials held a meeting to discuss the preparations for B50 (mixing 50% of palm oil biodiesel with diesel) and E10 (mixing 10% of ethanol with gasoline), and considered restricting the export volume of crude palm oil to increase the production of biodiesel [9][11]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 17, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a weekly increase of 26,000 tons; the contract volume was 40,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Recently, the arrival volume of purchased palm oil in China has gradually increased, the market trading has remained light, and the inventory has slowly accumulated [11].

Group 1 - Investment Rating: The report assigns an AHP score of 2.61, placing the company in the 35.5% percentile of the non-Science and Technology Innovation Board AHP model [3][8][9] - Core Business: The company is a leading enterprise in the resource utilization of waste cooking oil, with a full industry chain layout from "waste cooking oil - biofuels - bio-based materials" [3][10] - Market Position: The company has a market share of approximately 6%-7% in the agricultural chemical sector, with bio-based materials accounting for 80% of its revenue [3][10] Group 2 - Industry Growth: The European Union is set to mandate large-scale blending of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) starting in 2025, creating significant market opportunities for the company [3][15] - Production Capacity: The company achieved a sales volume of 90,300 tons of industrial mixed oil in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 473.46% [3][18] - Financial Performance: The company reported a revenue of 1.478 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year, with a projected revenue of 2.1 to 2.3 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [20][21] Group 3 - Competitive Analysis: The average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for comparable companies is 31.09X, while the company's industry has a static P/E ratio of 64.44X [19] - Profitability Trends: The company's gross profit margin has declined from 13.55% in 2022 to 9.50% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the lower value-added nature of industrial mixed oil products [24] - R&D Investment: The ratio of R&D expenditure to revenue has shown a downward trend, decreasing from 3.00% in 2022 to 2.33% in the first half of 2025 [30][33] Group 4 - Fundraising Plans: The company plans to raise 750 million yuan through the issuance of 35.9 million new shares, with funds allocated for expanding production capacity in various bio-based products [32][34] - Projected Returns: The internal rate of return for the new projects is estimated at 20.25%, with a payback period of approximately 6.83 years [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - In Malaysia, with export growth and production increase lower than market expectations, there is a chance for the price to rise to 4,650 ringgit. Pay close attention to export data and MPOA production data, and focus on whether the price can effectively stand above 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range consolidation trend. After repeated consolidation, watch if it can break through and stand above 9,500 yuan driven by the rise of Malaysian palm oil [1]. Soybean Oil - Sino - US trade negotiations seem to be back on track after weeks of new tariff threats and export restrictions. The data from the US EPA shows that the renewable fuel blending volume in September exceeded that in August, which is positive for Chicago soybean oil futures. In China, the Dalian soybean oil futures rose following the strength of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, but the increase was limited due to the drag of Sino - Canadian negotiations and limited downstream demand before the Spring Festival stocking. The possibility of a short - term continued rise is low [1]. Sugar - From the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production also increased. Affected by supply expectations, the upward momentum of raw sugar prices is limited. As of October, the market focuses on the production prospects of India and Thailand. The overall production is currently optimistically estimated, and the raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents per pound. The September sales data is neutral to weak, and the inventory has increased year - on - year. The new sugar pre - sale price is much lower than the current market price, and the spot market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3][4]. Cotton - The purchase price of machine - picked cottonseed in Xinjiang is firm. The Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract has cost support at low levels, but there is also increasing hedging pressure above 13,500 - 13,600 yuan. The downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises' cotton inventory is not high, and they have demand for cotton at current prices. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Eggs - The存栏量 of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. The downstream demand has improved, which will drive up the egg price. However, the sufficient supply at the origin may suppress the increase in egg prices. It is expected that the egg price will rise slightly this week and then stabilize, but there is still overall pressure [8][10]. Corn - In the short term, the corn price has stabilized and rebounded slightly due to the decrease in supply. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the upward space of the price is limited. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is cautious, but their inventory is relatively low, and the subsequent purchase intention will increase. Some regions have started purchasing and storage, but the scale is small [13]. Meal - related Products - The US soybean has improved slightly, but lacks substantial positive factors. Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is still at a high level, and the spot price is expected to be weak this year. However, the downward space is limited. If China continues not to purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support around 2,900 yuan, and there may be opportunities for 1 - 5 positive spreads [18]. Pigs - In the short term, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the pig price has stabilized and rebounded due to the entry of second - fattening in North and Northeast China. In the long term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. Policy - driven capacity reduction needs time to take effect, and it is expected that the spot price will still face pressure until the first half of next year. The disk operation should focus on short - selling on rallies, and hold the LH3 - 7 reverse spread [21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 20, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,610 yuan, up 0.23% from October 17; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,298 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis of Y2601 was 312 yuan, down 6.59% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9,300 yuan, up 0.54%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,318 yuan, up 0.11%; the basis of P2601 was - 18 yuan, up 68.97%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 9,708.1 yuan, up 0.18%, and the import profit was - 390 yuan, down 2.06%. The number of warehouse receipts was 600, up 20% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,120 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,918 yuan, up 0.58%; the basis of OI601 was 202 yuan, down 22.01% [1]. Sugar - On October 20, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 0.30%; the futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,386 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; the 1 - 5 spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 11.43%. The main contract's open interest was 426,415, down 3.41% [3]. Cotton - The futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,390 yuan/ton, up 1.05%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,335 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the 5 - 1 spread was 55 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The main contract's open interest was 586,467, up 1.11% [5]. Eggs - The price of the egg 11 - contract was 2,770 yuan/500KG, down 1.25%; the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3,166 yuan/500KG, down 0.41%. The basis was 174 yuan/500KG, down 24.47% [8]. Corn - The futures price of corn 2601 was 2,138 yuan/ton, up 0.99%; the basis was 12 yuan/ton, down 7.69%; the 1 - 3 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 7.14%. The open interest was 1,701,632, up 1.43%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,324, up 34.36% [13]. Meal - related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,900 yuan, down 0.68%; the futures price of M2601 was 2,895 yuan, up 0.94%; the basis of M2601 was 5 yuan, down 90.38%. The number of warehouse receipts was 42,761, down 0.3% [18]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,430 yuan, up 0.83%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,350 yuan, up 1.91%; the basis of RM2601 was 80 yuan, down 23.08%. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,702, unchanged [18]. Pigs - The futures price of the live hog 2511 contract was 11,410 yuan/ton, up 3.26%; the futures price of the live hog 2601 contract was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 4.16%. The 11 - 1 spread was - 745 yuan/ton, down 20.16%. The main contract's open interest was 102,555, down 4.13% [21]. Spot Market Data Sugar - The spot price in Nanning was 5,770 yuan, down 0.35%; in Kunming, it was 5,740 yuan, down 0.35%. The basis in Nanning was 381 yuan, down 7.75%; in Kunming, it was 351 yuan, down 8.36%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 4,254 yuan/ton, down 1.53%; (out - of - quota) was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 1.59% [3]. Cotton - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,517 yuan, up 0.05%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,679 yuan, unchanged; the FC Index of M: 1% was 12,851 yuan, unchanged. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract was 987 yuan/ton, down 11.88%; the basis of 3128B - 05 contract was 1,052 yuan/ton, down 10.47% [5]. Eggs - The egg - producing area price was 2.94 yuan/500KG, down 3.01%; the price of laying hens was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.32 yuan/jin, down 3.14% [8]. Corn - The FOB price in Jinzhou Port was 2,150 yuan/ton, up 0.94%; the bulk grain price in Shekou was 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The north - south trade profit was 79 yuan/ton, down 20.20%; the CIF price was 1,982 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; the import profit was 328 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [13]. Meal - related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,900 yuan, down 0.68%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,430 yuan, up 0.83% [18]. Pigs - The spot price in Henan was 11,530 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11,550 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 11,010 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11,590 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 11,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hunan, it was 10,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [21]. Industry Situation Data Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 1,048 million tons, up 9.17% year - on - year. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59% year - on - year; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 26.66 million tons, down 41.20% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - The inventory decreased by 13.1% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 1.9% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 42.9% month - on - month; the bonded area inventory increased by 1.4% month - on - month [5]. Eggs - The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.31, down 7.97%; the breeding profit was - 28.71 yuan/feather, down 69.88% [8]. Corn - The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 446, down 1.11% [13]. Meal - related Products - The盘面 import profit of Canadian rapeseed meal for January shipment was 792 yuan, up 5.74% [18]. Pigs - The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 164,642, down 1.13%; the weekly white - strip price was 19.01 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price was 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.47 yuan, down 0.09%; the weekly slaughter weight was 128.25 kg, down 0.18%; the weekly self - breeding profit was - 245 yuan/head, down 60.83%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 375 yuan/head, down 24.66%; the monthly fertile sow inventory was 4,038 million heads, down 0.10% [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The overall futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The reduction period of palm oil and the market's expectation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation support palm oil and soybean oil. However, warnings of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 and Sino - US trade tensions suppress biodiesel, putting downward pressure on palm oil and soybean oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient before the end of the year, soybean oil inventory is high, and demand is shrinking, lacking the impetus for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the oils and fats market [9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 1.38% to close at 9,308 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 1.99% to close at 9,861 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From October 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% - 16.2% month - on - month, alleviating market concerns about demand. Indonesia may raise the crude palm oil export levy to 15% to meet the subsidy funds required for the future B50 program, with the specific time undetermined. Malaysian palm oil fell 1.58% [7][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 2025/26 season, China has not purchased any US soybeans but has turned to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. Despite US soybean prices being lower than those in South America, due to the trade war and China's retaliatory tariffs (up to 20%), China's purchasing decision has become a political choice. US soybeans rose 1.39% this week [7][31]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 1.438 million tons. On October 15, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 598,000 tons [17]. - As of October 17, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 7,188,210 tons [20]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 264 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 62 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 295 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is consistent with the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the market [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The September USDA report showed an increase in US soybean production, a decrease in global production, and an increase in US soybean inventory, with an overall neutral - weak report. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to soybean purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and the supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply may face uncertainty after November due to unconfirmed purchases from December to January. Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. - For rapeseed meal, domestic supply - demand changes are small. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. - In the palm oil market, this month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report. Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme. Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. - For soybean oil, soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage. Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on the soybean market, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production [5]. - China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply after November may be affected by unconfirmed purchases from December to January [5]. - Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Domestic supply - demand changes are small, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed [5]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also brings uncertainty to future imports [5]. - Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - This month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report [37]. - Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme [37]. - Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage [39]. - Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens [39]. - Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil [39]. - Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. Rapeseed Oil - The current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle [40]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia [40]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, it will likely trade in a range due to the lack of improvement in US soybean imports and the de - stocking season of soybean meal [3][4]. - For palm oil and other oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, and the expected decrease in exportable volume due to the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, it can be considered to buy on dips when it stabilizes, while in the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening commodity sentiment [5][7]. - For sugar, considering the high production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. - For cotton, due to the weak fundamentals and the negative impact of the macro - environment, the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. - For eggs, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold a bearish view on the near - term contracts. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound correction, and in the long - term, it is recommended to sell on rallies after the rebound [16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is large. It is advisable to reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to strong domestic demand in the US. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was slightly stable, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline, and MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area this year [2][3]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. In the short - term, it will trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10 and 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased compared to the same period last month, and the production from October 1 - 15 increased month - on - month. India's vegetable oil imports in September slightly decreased compared to August. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Domestic oils traded in a range on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, consider buying on dips when it stabilizes. In the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. The cotton production in China is expected to increase this year, with the national output expected to reach 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [11]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price generally rose yesterday, with stable supply and good market sales [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a bearish view on near - term contracts in the short - term, expect a rebound correction in the medium - term, and sell on rallies after the rebound in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally continued to rise yesterday. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the North showed signs of decline, while the demand for large pigs in the South increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Watch (★☆☆)**: Corn, Hog, Egg - **Sell (White Star)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and investors need to pay close attention to policy and fundamental changes [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans rose and then fell, with all 44,835 tons of state reserve auctions today going unsold at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, and the demand for transactions has deteriorated. The market is still worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and China has not yet purchased the new US soybean crop. US soybean prices are expected to be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal, M2601, slightly increased positions and declined. Currently, the arrival volume of domestic soybeans is large, and inventories are sufficient. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a problem. If Sino-US trade relations continue to deteriorate and the time is prolonged, the overall supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. The soybean meal market is currently affected by domestic and foreign policies and is fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Weak global crude oil prices and uncertainties in Sino-US trade are pressuring risk assets, and there is a need to be cautious about the potential drag on vegetable oils. The near-term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the Indonesian market gives an expectation of a further increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in the long term. The palm oil market has resilience as it enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil is in a state of high inventory due to supply exceeding demand. In the context of the continued growth of the global biodiesel trend and the demand risks faced by US soybeans, it is expected that oils will be more resilient, and oils will be stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils will still have resilience, and investors should wait for the price to find a bottom and then go long at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuated little today. Overall, the external oilseed market lacks guidance from USDA data, and there are also risks of uncertain economic and trade relations at the macro level. The Sino-Canadian agricultural product trade relationship is difficult to ease before Canada changes its tariff policy. An oil company will hold a special two-way bidding and trading session for rapeseed oil purchases and sales on October 17, involving 18,230 tons of rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed market is still in a state of inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Overall, the driving force for a single side is not significant, and it is expected that the rapeseed futures price will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continued to rebound from the bottom today. The Huanghuaihai corn producing area is continuing to rush to harvest and dry the corn. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, but the range is narrowing. The volume of corn arriving at Shandong's spot market has decreased to less than 1,000 tons, and the price is weakly stable. The opening price of corn in Northeast China has declined from a high level, but some state reserve depots in Heilongjiang have started to purchase at around 2,000 yuan/ton for 14% moisture corn, which currently has little impact on the market. The volume of new corn coming onto the market in Northeast China will continue to increase in the next two weeks. Currently, corn is still weak at the bottom, but the phased bottom is getting closer [7] Hog - Except for the November contract, other hog futures contracts hit new lows, with a total increase in positions of 15,000 lots. The spot price rebounded and exceeded 11 yuan/kg, mainly affected by factors such as second-round fattening, reluctance to sell, and increased slaughter volume. The current average spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical hog cycle. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are no obvious bullish factors, and the monthly output of large-scale enterprises is expected to continue to increase in October. Currently, the profits of the entire industry chain have turned negative, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased in September. In the medium term, this will support the contracts for the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs generally increased, with a relatively large increase in some areas. The futures generally closed down, with a total increase in positions of 20,000 lots, and the contracts for February, March, and April next year hit new lows. The short-term spot sales are relatively fast due to low prices, resulting in a short-term rebound. The egg price is at the cash flow balance or loss state, and the culling of old hens is still slow. There is a risk of further decline in the egg price in the medium term [9]

陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 油脂周度行情观察 10月10日，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布9月供需报告。其中，当月产量为184.12万吨（-0.73%），出口量为142.76万吨 （+7.69%），国内消费为33.35万吨（-33.21%），库存为236.10万吨（+7.20%）。产量和库存均高于市场预期，出口有所改 善。报告影响偏空，棕榈油价格回落。 印尼B50政策消息发酵。印尼正加快推进到2026年全面实施B50生物柴油计划，能源部透露，B50燃料的实验室测试已于8月完 成，接下来将进入道路测试阶段。数据显示，若全面实施B50，每年将需要约2010万千升棕榈油基生物燃料。市场对于未来 棕榈油供应收紧有所担忧。 美豆持续收获，受中美贸易摩擦影响，中国仍未采购美豆而是转向南美大豆，美豆供应压力增加。10月1日美国政府停摆,受 此影响USDA月度供需报告、出口销售数据等关键信息暂停发布，市场缺乏指引，同时政府对农民的补贴政策推迟。 根据CONAB数据，截至10月11日当周，巴西2025/2026年度大豆种植率为11 ...