棕榈及菜系市场2026年年报 棕榈与菜系：蓬身已随洪波宽，菘节犹阻寒潭 清 ——2025 年棕榈与菜系市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 ➢ 摘要： 棕榈油：今年以来，棕榈油盘面呈现出冲高回落走势，但盘面重心有所上移。主产地 供给扰动事件带动盘面短期大幅冲高，但年内印尼恢复性增产及马棕产量预计创历史 新高下，实际供给维持充裕水平；而受全球生柴掺混需求利多及印度植物油消费增长 提振，需求端同样表现亮眼，供需双增下，基本面延续紧平衡态势，进而棕榈油价格 重心有所上移。 年底来看，11 月后马棕转向减产季，但今年减产力度不及往年，加上淡季出口需求 超预期回落，拖累产地库存大幅累库，短期价格或偏弱承压。但往后看，减产季数据 仍需继续关注，主产地树龄问题也将限制产量上方高度。需求端，明年 2 月印度斋月 前或将迎来一波需求释放，同时全球生柴政策仍将提供长期利好支撑。往后可关注一 季度的逢低做多机会。 展望明年，25/26 年度棕榈油全球供需预计维持紧平衡态势，市场关注点主要在于明 年印尼 B50 政策的推行效果、主产地天气情况以及出口需求情况，主产地树龄问题， 1 请 ...

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数据来源：wind，申万期货研究所 | | 1、据粮油市场报，11月报告中USDA未调整美豆压榨数量，由于新的工厂开始投产，10月份美国大 | | --- | --- | | | 豆压榨量创下纪录，达到2.2765亿蒲式耳，环比增长15%，同比增长14%，但市场更担心的2026年 | | | 美国生物柴油合规义务量以及进口原料能否获得全额补贴，还存在不确定性。12月USDA报告中压 | | 行业 | 榨可能维持不变，因此本次报告美豆供需调整比较少，结转库存也将变动不大。2、根据一项调 | | 信息 | 查，由于11月出口下降，马来西亚的棕榈油库存激增至六年多以来的最高水平。来自11份种植园 | | | 高管、贸易商和分析师估算的中值显示，库存较上月猛增10%至271万吨。这是自2019年4月以来的 | | | 最高水平，比一年前增加了47%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏强运行，usda供需报告下调25/26年度美豆单产预估至53蒲式耳/蒲,由此美 | | | 豆产量下降至42.53亿蒲，最终美豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲，9月报告预估为3亿蒲，产量和库存 | | | 均下降从数据上看为利多。但由于此前市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Southeast Asian floods have limited impact on palm oil, with potential negative expectation gaps [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to November 28, 2025, at 8710, 8670, and 8570 respectively [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu increased by 50 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 8470, 8610, and 8620 respectively [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 30 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 10080, 10130, and 10330 respectively [1] Futures Data - On December 1, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 364, an increase of 18 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The spread between the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1482, a decrease of 31 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 352; the soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 5469 to 5469; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 110 to 3855 [1] Important Information - Indonesia - Indonesia's GAPKI believes that floods in Sumatra have not had a significant impact on palm oil production [1] - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported a total of 19.49 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last year. In October, 1.91 million tons of palm oil were exported, up from 1.38 million tons in September [1] Important Information - Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, the average yield per unit of palm oil in Malaysia in November decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 19.7% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 12.8% [1] - According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 10% [1] Other Information - In September, the U.S. usage of soybean oil for biofuel production rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the overall growth of Brazilian soybeans indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than in the 2024/25 season. The current sowing progress is 86.97%, compared to 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [2] - As of the week ending October 16, the net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.108 million tons, in line with expectations, up from 0.785 million tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week. The export shipments of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.73 million tons, up from 0.693 million tons the previous week [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil is experiencing a weakening of high - yield marginal trading and a technical rebound [1]. - Soybean oil lacks a strong driving force from US soybeans and is mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil: The day - session closing price was 8,626 yuan/ton with a 1.15% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume was 410,968 lots with an increase of 27,550 lots, and the open interest was 331,361 lots with a decrease of 33,791 lots [1]. - Soybean oil: The day - session closing price was 8,244 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase. Trading volume was 172,181 lots with a decrease of 53,408 lots, and the open interest was 347,390 lots with a decrease of 10,124 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The day - session closing price was 9,757 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and the night - session closing price was 9,785 yuan/ton with a 0.29% increase. Trading volume was 235,179 lots with a decrease of 5,362 lots, and the open interest was 175,955 lots with a decrease of 5,986 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil (Malaysian ringgit/ton): The closing price was 4,114 with a 0.59% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil (US cents/pound): The closing price was 52.08 with a 2.06% increase [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 180 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,280 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): The price was 1,030 US dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): The basis was - 56 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): The basis was 326 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The basis was 523 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,131 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 1,244 yuan/ton) [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 382 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: - 304 yuan/ton) [1]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: - 52 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: - 62 yuan/ton) [1]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 204 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 222 yuan/ton) [1]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 256 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 233 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil News**: - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were expected to be 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease [2]. - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in December at 926.14 US dollars/ton, lower than 963.75 US dollars/ton in November. The export tariff will drop to 74 US dollars/ton from 124 US dollars/ton in the previous month, and there is an additional 10% export special tax [2][3]. - Indonesian suppliers are expected to postpone the shipment of 310,000 tons of palm oil from November to December due to an expected export tax reduction of over 50 US dollars/ton in December [3]. - **Soybean News**: - A private US exporter reported the sale of 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery [4]. - In September, the US used 1.053 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, the overall growth of Brazil's soybean crops indicates that the yield potential in most areas will be lower than in the 2024/2025 season. The sowing progress is 86.97%, compared with 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [4]. - Agroconsult expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach a record 178.1 million tons [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, the soybean planting in South Mato Grosso, Brazil, is nearing completion. As of November 21, 95.6% of the expected area (4.583 million hectares) has been sown, with 93.7% of the crops in good condition. The estimated average yield is 52.8 bags per hectare, and the expected total output is 15.1 million tons [5]. - In South Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the soybean sowing area has reached 60% of the expected area, and the crops are in the germination and vegetative development stages with good emergence [5]. - As of November 27, Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 39% (last week: 25%, last year: 47%) [5]. - As of November 26, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 36% (last week: 24.6%, last year: 45%). The proportion of crops in good condition was 62% (last week: 70%, last year: 21%), and 38% were in normal condition (last week: 30%, last year: 79%) [6]. - Expana estimates that the EU's soybean production in the 2026/2027 season will be 3.2 million tons, up from 3 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. - Due to a significant increase in the planting area, Expana expects the EU's rapeseed production in the 2026/2027 season to be 20.8 million tons, a 1.5% increase from 20.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. - Expana estimates that the EU's sunflower seed production in the 2026/2027 season will be 9.8 million tons, compared with 8.4 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory pressure in the oilseed industry remains high, but the absolute price is too low to have much downward space, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. Attention should be paid to the import volume of US soybeans from December to January, as well as the import changes of rapeseed under the influence of tariffs. In the oil market, different oils face different supply - demand situations, with some facing supply pressure and some having relatively strong price patterns due to supply tightening [5][40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - USDA's current report lowered US soybean production, inventory, and exports, but the figures were lower than market expectations. Brazil's soybean sowing is going smoothly, and an increase in area and production is expected, which may put pressure on supply from March to May next year [5]. - Domestic port soybean inventory is sufficient, at a three - year high, and supply pressure is large. The loss in the aquaculture industry has suppressed purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in weak demand [5]. - The progress of domestic purchases of US soybeans is still slow, and attention should be paid to the purchase volume from December to January [5]. - Import reduction has led to domestic rapeseed inventory approaching zero, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not been resumed, and the arrival of Australian imports has increased recently. The expected rapeseed import volume in December and January remains at the historical average [5]. - With the end of the peak season for aquatic product demand, demand support will further weaken [5]. 3.2 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: Supply has improved with the increase in crushing, but overall inventory pressure is large. Overseas biodiesel topics have slowed down, and the decline in US soybean oil prices has put pressure on import costs. The weakening of the biodiesel topic in the crude oil market has also had a short - term impact. However, the approaching year - end demand peak season provides some support for demand [39][40]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's monthly production and inventory have increased month - on - month, with sufficient inventory in the main production areas and obvious supply pressure. Short - term Chinese imports have slowed down, and demand is weak. However, the approaching Spring Festival demand peak season may drive demand improvement. The possible delay of Indonesia's B50 plan and the delay of US biodiesel subsidies have weakened the demand expectation for palm oil [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High tariffs on imported rapeseed in China and uncertain import volume of Canadian rapeseed have affected the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials. Low domestic rapeseed arrivals, reduced oil mill operating rates, and tightened supply of imported rapeseed oil have led to continuous inventory reduction, resulting in a relatively strong price pattern for rapeseed oil [41].

智通财经APP讯，创业集团控股(02221)发布公告，于2025年11月26日，买方(宜升(天津)环境技术有限公 司，为公司间接全资附属公司)拟向卖方(厦门诺鸿盛贸易有限公司)购买目标公司(广西融合生物能源科 技有限公司)12%股权，总代价为人民币2400万元。 此外，董事会认为，收购事项符合集团的发展策略，预计有助于巩固及提升集团在中国的市场份额、竞 争力及品牌形象，并把握可持续能源的长期需求。此举亦代表扩展集团生物柴油行业业务组合的机会， 并有助于目标公司及生物柴油行业的前景带来正面的收益贡献。 由于全球政策框架的支持，生物柴油和可持续航空燃料(SAF)的全球需求预计将上升。考虑到欧盟 《2020年可持续与智慧交通策略》设定到2050年运输相关温室气体排放减少90%的目标;及中国的利好 政策发展，包括取消对废食用油(UCO)的出口退税，而废食用油是生物柴油和可持续航空燃料的主要原 料，这鼓励国内加工并促进中国国内生物燃料行业的增长，全球对生物柴油的需求预计将快速扩大。 目标公司主要从事工业用油、生物柴油及生物塑化剂的加工及销售。其主要产品包括第一代生物柴油 (UCOM)及船用生物燃料油(B24)。目标公司 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - USDA's recent report lowered US soybean production and inventory, but the reduction was less than market expectations, and US soybean exports were also cut. Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the market anticipates an increase in area, which may exert pressure on supply from March to May next year. In China, port soybean inventories are abundant, at a three - year high, leading to significant supply pressure. Weak demand is due to losses in the aquaculture industry, which dampens purchasing enthusiasm. Import reduction has led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventories, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. Canadian rapeseed imports remain restricted, while Australian imports have recently increased, with expected imports in December and January at historical average levels. As the peak season for aquaculture demand ends, demand - side support will further weaken. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on rapeseed imports in the future [7]. - For soybean oil, recent increases in oil mill operations have led to a rise in supply, with significant overall inventory pressure. Falling crude oil prices have narrowed biofuel processing margins, dragging down the oil market. A slowdown in overseas biodiesel topics has led to a decline in US soybean oil prices, pressuring soybean oil from the import cost side. Recent macro - economic weakness has also affected overall oil prices [37]. - Regarding palm oil, Malaysia's monthly production and inventory have increased month - on - month, with sufficient inventory in the main producing areas and obvious supply pressure. Demand is weak, and the seasonal production - reduction cycle has not yet begun. Indonesia's B50 plan may be postponed, weakening the demand outlook for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Delays in US biodiesel subsidies may slow down biodiesel demand, which is unfavorable for palm oil demand in the short term [38]. - For rapeseed oil, the uncertain China - Canada relationship has kept rapeseed imports under high tariffs, with uncertain Canadian rapeseed import volumes affecting rapeseed oil raw material supply. Low domestic rapeseed arrivals have led to a decline in oil mill operating rates, tightening rapeseed oil supply and continuously reducing rapeseed oil inventory. Tight domestic supply has stimulated a relatively strong rapeseed oil market [39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - side factors**: USDA lowered US soybean production, inventory, and exports; Brazilian soybean sowing is smooth with expected area increase; Chinese port soybean inventories are at a three - year high; import reduction has led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventories; Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, while Australian imports are increasing [7]. - **Demand - side factors**: Weak demand due to aquaculture losses; end of the peak season for aquaculture demand weakens demand - side support [7]. Oils Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Increased oil mill operations have led to higher supply and significant inventory pressure [37]. - **External factors**: Falling crude oil prices, a slowdown in overseas biodiesel topics, and weak macro - economic conditions have pressured soybean oil prices [37]. Palm Oil - **Supply**: Malaysia's production and inventory have increased, with sufficient supply in the main producing areas [38]. - **Demand**: Weak demand, postponed Indonesia's B50 plan, and delayed US biodiesel subsidies have affected palm oil demand [38]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Uncertain China - Canada relationship, high tariffs on rapeseed imports, low domestic rapeseed arrivals, and reduced oil mill operating rates have tightened supply [39]. - **Market situation**: Tight supply has led to a relatively strong rapeseed oil market [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Brazilian soybean production is expected to continue increasing, and the oil market will fluctuate [1] - Palm oil has been under pressure recently due to inventory build - up expectations, declining exports, and rising production, but the expectation of biodiesel experiments still provides support, and it is not likely to fall sharply in the short term [2] - The passage of the bill by the US House of Representatives and the upcoming USDA report on the 14th will put some pressure on the oil market [2] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8752.00 yuan/ton, a change of +8 yuan or +0.09% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8316.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.34% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9975.00 yuan/ton, a change of +135.00 yuan or +1.37% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, a change of -30.00 yuan or -0.35%, and the spot basis was P01 - 102.00, a change of -38.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, a change of -18.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.37%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 355.00, a change of +5.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary Brazilian Soybean Forecast - The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 177.6016 million tons, an increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6% year - on - year [2] - The estimated soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 49.0634 million hectares, an increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6% year - on - year [2] - The estimated soybean yield in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 3.62 tons per hectare, a decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% year - on - year [2] International News - The US House of Representatives has enough votes to pass the temporary appropriation bill, which will be submitted to Trump for signature today [2] - Indian palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, compared with 833,017 tons in September [2]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector is experiencing significant positive developments, with core stocks showing notable price increases due to favorable policies and market conditions [1][4] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will contribute approximately 65% to the aviation sector's net-zero carbon target by 2050 [1] - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for biodiesel utilization, aiming for 2 million tons by 2025 and 5 million tons by 2030, alongside mandatory blending standards [2] Industry Developments - The European SAF FOB price has risen over 58% since the beginning of the year, reaching $2840-$2860 per ton, while domestic prices have increased to $2450-$2650 per ton [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of biodiesel in renewable energy development [2] - The International Maritime Organization is promoting biodiesel as a key option for reducing emissions in the shipping sector [2] Technological Advancements - Third-generation biodiesel technologies have achieved conversion efficiencies exceeding 92%, significantly reducing pollutant emissions and ensuring compatibility with existing maritime and aviation equipment [3] - Leading domestic companies are extending their production capabilities into the SAF supply chain, enhancing product value [3] Market Activity - The demand for biodiesel is expanding into high-value applications, with increased trading activity in the sector as market expectations for growth rise [4] - Core stocks in the biodiesel sector are attracting significant investor interest, driven by policy and price catalysts [4] Company Spotlight: Shango Environmental - Shango Environmental (000803.SZ) is a leading player in the biodiesel raw material sector, focusing on the resource utilization of used cooking oil (UCO) [5] - The company has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of UCO and is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive growth in global SAF demand [5] - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 40-45 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 214.28%-228.56% [5] Competitive Advantages - Shango has established a robust network for collecting used cooking oil, enhancing its raw material self-sufficiency [6] - The company is upgrading its production facilities to meet both domestic and international SAF production standards, supporting future market expansion [6] - Plans to increase biodiesel production capacity to 500,000 tons per year are in place, leveraging raw material advantages to extend the supply chain into SAF production [6]