1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the lithium carbonate industry is continuously improving but still in an over - supply situation. The global lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to reach 2.11 million tons of LCE in 2025, with a year - on - year increase of 21.57%. The global supply surplus is about 120,000 - 280,000 tons of LCE, and 10% of high - cost production capacity needs to be eliminated to improve the balance. The demand from the power battery and energy storage markets shows different trends, and downstream enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy. Policy factors such as the elimination of inefficient production capacity and "trade - in" policies also have an impact on the market [76][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review and Logic Sorting - The report presents the price trends of lithium carbonate, including the main contract price, battery - grade price, and basis. It also shows the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price trends of the LC futures main contract [6]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply - Lithium Ore - The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate trends of lithium ore are presented. A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 [9][12]. 3.2.2. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - The production, import, and export trends of lithium carbonate are presented. A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 [15][19]. 3.2.3. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - The production capacity utilization rate, production, and export trends of lithium hydroxide are presented. A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 [22][24]. 3.2.4. Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds are presented, including the production profit and cost of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), the cost - profit of lithium carbonate recycling production, the processing cost composition, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [27][29][32]. 3.2.5. Inventory - The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are presented, including the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory by source [34]. 3.2.6. Demand - Lithium Battery - The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and cost trends of lithium batteries are presented, including different types of batteries such as power batteries and energy - storage batteries [37]. 3.2.7. Demand - Ternary Precursor - The price, cost, processing fee, production capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented. The supply - demand balance sheet shows the export, demand, import, production, and balance from June 2024 to June 2025 [43][46]. 3.2.8. Demand - Ternary Material - The price, cost - profit, production capacity, production, processing fee, import, export, and inventory trends of ternary materials are presented [49][51]. 3.2.9. Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - The price, production cost, cost - profit, production capacity, production, export volume, and inventory trends of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [53][56]. 3.2.10. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory early - warning index trends of new energy vehicles are presented [61][65]. 3.3. Futures Market Performance - The trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price trends of the LC futures main contract are presented. The profit and loss trends of long and short positions in the futures market are also shown, with the short - position loss trend being more obvious and the long - position profit trend being more obvious [69][72]. 3.4. Summary and Operation Suggestions - **One - month cycle**: The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to cautiously go long at a low price, enter the market at 70,000 yuan/ton, with a target of 72,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton and a stop - loss at 68,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the change trend of the number of warehouse receipts [79]. - **Three - month cycle**: The over - supply situation suppresses the market. It is recommended to go short at a high price, enter the market when the price reaches 75,000 yuan/ton, with a target of 65,000 - 68,000 yuan/ton and a stop - loss at 68,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the elimination of production capacity and supply - side disturbances [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, while the cost of purchased lithium mica remained flat. The production profit from spodumene was positive, while that from lithium mica was negative. The cost of the salt lake end was lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation was neutral overall [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The supply surplus situation has intensified, and the lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,900 - 67,420 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with increases and decreases. The basis also showed different degrees of change, mostly narrowing [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.15%, while the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of positive electrode materials and lithium batteries also showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of some ternary precursors decreased, while the price of some lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. The cost and profit of lithium ore production also changed. For example, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 0.09%, and the production profit increased significantly [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% compared with the previous month [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was 24,450 tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous month [17]. 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. The price and cost of lithium batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 1.93% [17]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of ternary precursors increased in some series [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the price of some ternary materials decreased slightly [66]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: The production, demand, and price of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphorus iron increased by 2.09% [71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate and inventory index also changed. For example, the production of new energy vehicles decreased slightly, and the sales penetration rate decreased by 5.96% [79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is the capacity mismatch. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The positive factors include manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. The negative factors are the continuous high - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The 6% spodumene CIF price has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The supply surplus situation has changed, and the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%, with a production profit of 264 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 69,292 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 7,063 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong production motivation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 140,793 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%, the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and other inventories are 41,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.34% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,760 - 67,200. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend. The supply surplus situation is expected to ease, with a slight decrease in supply and an increase in demand [8]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products have shown different degrees of changes. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 64,650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the - 1,830 yuan/ton basis of the 09 contract on July 14 [8][14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate is 62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The daily production cost of spodumene is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 is 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34% [8][17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate is 285,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The monthly production of ternary materials is 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.30%. The monthly power battery loading volume is 58,200 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.93% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica) has different trends over time [24]. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown different trends in different periods [24]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium mines has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [27]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [30]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, especially the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticizing, smelting) have changed over time [38]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed, and the export volume is relatively large [38][41]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost of Different Raw Materials**: The production costs of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) have changed over time, and the profit situations are also different [44][47]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profits of different processes such as lithium carbonate import, purification, and lithium hydroxide processing have changed over time [44][47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) has changed over time [52]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) has changed over time [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time, and the prices of different types of lithium batteries have also shown different trends [56][59]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells have changed over time [56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of ternary precursors of different series have changed over time [62]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of ternary materials of different series have changed over time [68]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over time [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73][76]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [81][82]. - **Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of new energy vehicles and the inventory index of dealers have changed over time [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a neutral fundamental outlook. The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,220 - 64,540 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 0.44% daily, with a profit of 46 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite increased by 0.87% daily, with a loss of 6,586 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 8, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 138,347 tons, a 1.10% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.61%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.56% [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import and export data of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake) showed various changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The data of demand - related aspects such as the monthly output, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and other products also changed. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 18.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with a supply - demand gap in most months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and other aspects, showed different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects showed different trends over time [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters showed different trends over time [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends over time [54][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71]. - **Export and Inventory**: The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 3.06% to 60,700 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 200 yuan/ton to 58,570 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,404 tons to 22,375 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate output increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the total social inventory continued to increase, and the total inventory turnover days of lithium carbonate rose to about 2 months. Meanwhile, the lithium ore inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Since June is the earnings report disclosure season, the overseas shipment volume also increased. Currently, the overall inventory level of lithium ore + lithium salt reaches about 3.5 months, indicating significant inventory pressure [3]. - The current price level is basically at a stage bottom. From the perspective of the lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars, there is still short - term support. However, there has been no inflection point in the fundamentals, and market sentiment remains bearish. Due to yesterday's market news disturbances, the futures price strengthened rapidly. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and warehouse receipts are presented, along with the supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate. The current price is at a stage bottom, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term risks exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 23 to June 24, 2025, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products. For example, the main contract closing price of futures rose from 59,120 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium aluminum phosphate stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium and lithium salt products such as metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads of different lithium products, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium battery products such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells from 2024 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][36]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable with an increase in imports, while the demand growth rate is slower than supply. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rebounds to a high level and to keep an eye on upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production**: In May, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 73020 tons. This week, the output increased by 350 tons to 15398 tons. The production of lithium salt plants has been stable, and some overseas mines have adjusted their production plans. For example, Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year to 700,000 - 740,000 tons, and the Bald Hill concentrator planned to stop operating in early December 2024 [4]. - **Import**: In April 2025, China's lithium ore import volume was 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The lithium carbonate import volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56%. It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salt will remain high [4]. - **Cost**: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. 3.2 Demand - side - **Production and Sales of Batteries**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. The total export was 22.3GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 64.2%. The sales volume was 118.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. The overall production in June is expected to be flat month - on - month [5]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the Chinese new energy vehicle market [5]. 3.3 Inventory This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a build - up. The factory inventory decreased by 1142 tons to 33401 tons, the market inventory increased by 3409 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 427 tons [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion Given the situation of strong supply and weak demand that has not improved, it is recommended to short - sell when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to a high level. It is also necessary to continuously monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode materials [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Production and Inventory**: There are data on monthly and weekly production, as well as weekly inventory changes over multiple years [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: The average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6% - 6.5%) is presented over a long - term time series [14][15]. - **Battery Production and Related Data**: Data on the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries, as well as the production and sales differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are provided [5][20][23]. - **Production of Lithium Carbonate from Different Raw Materials**: In April 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium salt lakes accounted for 20.06%, from lithium mica 23.35%, and from lithium spodumene 44.61% [21][22]. - **Production of Cathode Materials**: There are data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials over multiple years [26][27][31]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The average prices of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate (power - type), and ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) are presented over different time periods [18][35][39]. - **Import Volume**: Data on the import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over multiple years are provided [37][41].

Report Title - Lithium Carbonate Monthly Strategy Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are still bearish, but the price fluctuation is intensified due to the game between bulls and bears. The lithium ore price continues to fall, with the lowest transaction price dropping to $600/ton. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons, and the production is expected to increase in June. The cathode production data is average, but the cathode inventory is continuously digested. The cell production continues to slow down, but the terminal sales are still eye - catching with a high penetration rate. The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons, with a slight increase in downstream inventory and a decrease in upstream and intermediate inventories [4]. Summary by Directory 1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops by 4.9%, and the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and most cathode materials decline. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops from 66,960 yuan/ton to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) drops from $779/ton to $676/ton [5][6] 2 Inventory - The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons. The downstream inventory increases by 752 tons to 41,616 tons, the intermediate - link inventory decreases by 180 tons to 33,720 tons, and the upstream inventory decreases by 780 tons to 56,235 tons [5][12] 3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the trends of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and lithium hydroxide export profit, etc., but specific profit data are not summarized in the text [18][19] 4 Supply 4.1 Lithium Resources - The production data of sample lithium mica mines and Chinese sample spodumene mines are provided. For example, on April 30, 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) is 15,450 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines is 4,900 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent [25] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons. Among them, the production from lithium spodumene increases by 20 tons to 7,519 tons, from lithium mica increases by 370 tons to 4,382 tons, from salt - lake lithium extraction increases by 67 tons to 2,907 tons, and from recycling lithium extraction increases by 30 tons to 1,772 tons [5][29] 4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts show the production, capacity, and production by process and region of lithium hydroxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [41][42] 4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts present the production, export, and monthly operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as the theoretical production cost of solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate produced by purchasing LiF externally, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [44][45] 4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts show the recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries, including the total volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [49][50] 5 Materials 5.1 Ternary Precursor - Charts show the profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export volume of ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [52][53] 5.2 Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreases by 282 tons to 14,894 tons. Charts also show the production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary materials [5][55] 5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreases by 1,172 tons to 81,378 tons. Charts show the operating rate, capacity, production, cost, and export of lithium iron phosphate [5][57] 5.4 Other Materials - Charts show the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [58][59] 6 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells decreases by 19.9% to 19.23 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron cells decreases by 25.5% to 12.28 GWh, and the production of ternary cells decreases by 7.8% to 6.95 GWh [5][61] 7 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From May 1 - 25, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market is 726,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market is 53.5%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 4.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [5][70] 8 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts show the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [72][73] 9 Options - Charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate closing prices, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

碳酸锂周报 供应压力仍存，价格延续偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/4/28 需求端：4月整体排产预计环比持平。3月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为118.3GWh，环比增长18.0%，同比增长54.3%。动力和 其他电池合计出口23.0GWh，环比增长8.8%，同比增长75.3%。动力和其他电池销量为115.4GWh，环比增长28.3%，同比增长 64.9%。以旧换新政策出台和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现累库状态，工厂库存周内增加2860吨至32560吨，市场库存减少3722吨，广期所库存增加2233吨。 ⚫ 策略建议： 从供应端来看，碳酸锂产量稳增，3月产量环比增加24%，近期锂盐厂稳定生产，3月锂精矿进口量环比减少6%，3月锂盐进口环 比增加47%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量保持高位。从需求端来看，受储能和电动车终端增速的带动，下游需求较好，但美国对等关税 政策落地对锂电池出口形成负面 ...