交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月11日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025年11月 碳酸锂进口量为25500实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加5.88%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主导 ...

创元期货分析师余烁也认为，目前基本面供需双强是支撑价格上行的重要原因，但受下游需求转入淡季的影响，基本面驱动力度已出现边际弱化，市场开 始呈现"可上可下"的特征。 从基本面看，随着今年新投产项目的爬坡，碳酸锂供应增量开始扩大。据SMM数据，11月我国碳酸锂总产量同比实现49%的大幅增长，再度突破历史新 高，预计12月将持续处于高位。王美丹认为，伴随部分新项目年底逐步投产，产量后续仍有提升的空间。从周度数据看，碳酸锂产量环比出现一定修复。 据SMM数据，截至12月4日当周，碳酸锂周度产量约2.19万吨，环比增加约74吨。 需求方面，新能源汽车累库明显。据乘联会数据，今年10月底，行业新能源车库存73万辆，环比增加11万辆。今年11月，国内新能源乘用车产量175.7万 辆，批发销量170.6万辆，零售132.1万辆，厂商出口28.4万辆。这也意味着，今年11月，汽车厂累库5.1万辆，经销商环节累库约10.1万辆，总库存约88.2万 辆。 展望后市，业内人士认为，当前市场的核心矛盾聚焦头部厂商复产进度与淡季需求的持续性。"宁德时代枧下窝锂矿未能在近期如期复产，目前复工时间 仍存不确定性，短期能否成功复产成为市场关注 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月10日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为94487元/吨，日环比增长0.01%,生产所得为-3021元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为93100元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-3898元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿 石端，盈 ...

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年12月01日-12月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 本周05合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为96980元/吨，周五收盘价为92160元/吨，周跌幅为4.90%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13484吨，环比增 加0.90%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产3076吨，环比增加1.82%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 3090吨，环比减少4.48%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2289吨，环比增加1.96%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年11月碳酸锂需求量为133451实物吨，环比增加5.11%,预测下月需求量为130418 实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly in November, breaking the important threshold of 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics and demand-supply narratives [1][2][9]. Group 1: Price Movement - Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 102,500 yuan/ton on November 20, 2023, after starting at 78,060 yuan/ton on November 5, marking a substantial increase [2][3]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate, LC2601, saw a remarkable increase of 19.26% in November, making it the top performer in the commodity market [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, with expectations that global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons by 2026 [1][3]. - The recent surge in demand is attributed to the rapid growth in renewable energy integration and electric vehicle production, with predictions of a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are emerging, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and power supply issues have reduced operational rates to around 55% [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26, indicating tightening supply conditions [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment has been bolstered by optimistic forecasts from leading companies in the lithium sector, contributing to increased trading activity and speculation in the futures market [4][5]. - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures reached a record high of 25.06 million contracts in November, reflecting heightened market activity and investor interest [4]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while prices could potentially reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton under extreme conditions, such scenarios depend on various factors including supply disruptions and unexpected demand surges [10][11]. - A more balanced scenario predicts a slight oversupply in 2025, with average prices likely returning to the range of 70,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton based on historical trends and cost structures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for lithium, driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, with supply and demand reaching a balance [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate futures surged significantly, with the main contract LC2601 rising by 4.47% on November 25 and reaching a peak of 99,880 yuan/ton on November 26, marking a 19.26% increase in November [1][2]. - The lithium carbonate market has experienced an unexpected strong performance during the traditional off-season, attributed to improved expectations from leading companies, supportive policies, and structural changes in domestic and international trade [2][3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the power battery and energy storage sectors, with the latter showing unexpected growth due to several factors, including declining photovoltaic component prices and supportive government policies [6][7]. - The energy storage sector's performance has exceeded market expectations, with a significant increase in demand driven by the economic viability of storage projects and the low penetration rate of energy storage [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing challenges, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and unstable power supply have reduced operational rates [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening supply situation, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26 [9][10]. Group 4: Price Projections - Market participants are speculating on potential price increases, with some forecasts suggesting that if demand growth exceeds 30%, prices could reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [10][11]. - However, a balanced supply-demand scenario may lead to a slight oversupply by 2025, with prices likely stabilizing between 70,000 and 100,000 yuan/ton under normal conditions [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is neutral [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations driven by news. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,620 - 96,380 [13][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. October imports were 23,881 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase [8][13]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][13]. - Inventory: Total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% decrease; downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% decrease; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a 10.25% increase [9]. - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 was 88,224 yuan/ton, a 0.31% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,549 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 was 90,365 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 1,850 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than the ore - end cost, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins [13]. - Market indicators: On November 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions [13]. - Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from the ore and salt - lake ends, with limited decline [14][15]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The price of lithium carbonate and related products showed various fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium carbonate (6%) increased by 4.31% to 1,113 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.81% to 92,800 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.31% to 88,224 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [22]. - Demand - side data: The monthly operating rate of the lithium battery industry increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 10.66% [22]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and production: The price of lithium ore showed fluctuations over time. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica also changed year - on - year [29]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [31][33]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the monthly production showed different trends. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed [35]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization and production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [42]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends over time [47][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, production, and loading volume: The price, monthly production, and monthly power battery loading volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance from 2024 to 2025 also showed different situations each month [63][66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [82][83].

碳酸锂近期供需情况及展望 20251125 摘要 2026 年碳酸锂当量有效增量预计达 39 万吨，为历年最高，主要来自澳 洲塔里森、皮尔巴拉等金矿项目投产及产能提升，以及 Covanta 氢氧化 铝工厂的潜在增量。 国内锂矿增量主要来自新疆大红柳滩和四川李家沟的产能爬坡，预计分 别增加 1.5 万吨碳酸锂当量，但其他项目释放需待 2026 年春季或下半 年，南美地区则受资金问题制约。 非洲将成为 2026 年锂矿增量主要来源，马里地区的 Bogoni 和赣锋项 目预计贡献显著增量，津巴布韦的雅化、青山和萨达瓦那合作项目也有 增长预期。 预计 2026 年澳洲锂辉石碳酸锂当量增长约 8%，国内增长至 12.7 万吨， 其他地区（含南美和非洲）增长至 34.9 万吨，其中非洲贡献最大。 国内盐湖提锂 2026 年碳酸锂当量预计至少可达 22.1 万吨，主要来自察 尔汗盐湖股份新项目及青海汇信、五矿等公司扩张，但西藏地区进展或 受环保及边疆问题影响。 Q&A 2026 年碳酸锂的供应端有哪些主要增量项目？ 2026 年，碳酸锂供应端将有显著增量。首先，非洲矿山的成本敏感点大约在 75,000 人民币左右，澳洲矿山 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate prices have experienced a significant upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - By 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach approximately 1.45 million tons, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons, with supply capacity around 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of about 200,000 tons [1] - In 2026, lithium carbonate demand is expected to grow by 30%, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is anticipated to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not keep pace, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1] Price Dynamics - The high prices of lithium carbonate may suppress downstream purchasing willingness, particularly as the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged over 200% in four months, impacting the profitability of downstream companies [2] - Current price dynamics show a linkage effect within the industry chain, with rising prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate driving each other [2] - The recovery of lithium prices has led to an increase in lithium salt exports from Chile and Australia, which may help alleviate domestic lithium resource shortages [2] Production and Inventory Insights - In September, lithium carbonate imports decreased by 10.3% to 19,596.9 tons, while exports plummeted by 59.12% to 150.816 tons; domestic production in October was 51,530 tons, reflecting a 9.31% increase, but the operating rate fell by 5 percentage points to 43%, indicating constraints in domestic capacity release [3] - By the end of December, supply tightness is expected to support the rise in lithium carbonate prices [4] Long-term Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with 70,000 yuan/ton having clear cost and demand support, while 100,000 yuan/ton corresponds to the price level for the resumption of Australian mines [5] - From 2025 to 2030, the global lithium carbonate market is likely to maintain a surplus, with the supply surplus expected to narrow from 2025 to 2026 [5] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to become a new demand driver from 2025 to 2027, alongside steady growth in the power market [5] Key Demand Drivers - The sustainability of energy storage demand in 2026 will be crucial for influencing the prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials [6] - The primary growth regions for the global energy storage market will remain in China, the United States, and Europe, with emerging regions like the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia also expected to increase storage demand [6] - Global energy storage demand is projected to grow by approximately 63% year-on-year in 2025, with a potential slowdown to a 15% increase in 2026, and a compound annual growth rate of around 15% from 2026 to 2030 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 27,000 tons next month, a 22.73% increase [8][10]. - From the demand side, last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - From the cost side, the cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 87,553 yuan/ton, a 2.42% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,376 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 91,635 yuan/ton, a 2.85% daily increase, with a loss of 7,641 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 92,020 - 95,020 [10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [14]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week's production was 21,545 tons, up 0.05% week - on - week. October 2025 production was 92,260 tons, predicted next - month production is 92,080 tons (down 0.19%). October import was 22,000 tons, predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons (up 22.73%) [8][10]. - **Demand**: Last week, lithium iron phosphate sample enterprise inventory was 104,738 tons (down 0.92%), ternary material sample enterprise inventory was 19,211 tons (down 1.74%). Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: Purchased lithium spodumene concentrate cost is 87,553 yuan/ton (up 2.42% daily), loss of 1,376 yuan/ton. Purchased lithium mica cost is 91,635 yuan/ton (up 2.85% daily), loss of 7,641 yuan/ton. Salt lake end cost is 31,477 yuan/ton, with strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Factors**: On November 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 6,120 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The overall inventory was 120,472 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [11]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the high and limited - decline supply at the ore/salt lake end [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1,680 yuan (-1.76%). The basis of various contracts increased, with the 01 contract basis increasing by 2,930 yuan (-32.38%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 342 lots (-1.27%). The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 32 US dollars/ton (3.13%), and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) increased by 125 yuan/ton (5.34%) [17]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 2,071 yuan/ton (2.42%), and the monthly processing cost decreased by 170 yuan/ton (-0.83%). The monthly production of lithium carbonate in October was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.88%, and the monthly production increased by 19,800 tons (6.35%). The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 10.54%, and the monthly export increased by 1,091,564 kilograms (54.57%) [19].