1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8][11]. - In the future, it is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply glut situation will improve. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,200 - 61,640 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 16,093 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In April 2025, production was 73,810 tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 82,550 tons, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,176 tons, a 0.07% decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate is 66,208 yuan/ton, a 0.15% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,065 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica is 66,952 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, resulting in a loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Base - spread**: On May 27, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is 131,779 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters increased by 0.87%, while the downstream inventory decreased by 1.36%, and other inventories decreased by 0.21%, which is bearish [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main players increased, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: In April 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,336 tons, and next - month's import volume is forecasted to be 24,000 tons, a 15.3% decrease. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply glut situation will improve. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,200 - 61,640 [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply from the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [10]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to reverse [11]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.36%. The basis of most contracts decreased, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 2.36% [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and related products showed different degrees of change, such as a 0.29% decrease in the price of 6% lithium spodumene and a 0.8% decrease in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [14]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium - ion batteries also changed to varying degrees [14]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend, with the price of 6% lithium spodumene decreasing by 0.29% [14]. - Production and Import: The monthly production and import volume of lithium ore changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed fluctuations [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore was in a state of imbalance, with demand generally exceeding production and import in most months [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) and the overall production showed different trends [30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume changed [30]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate was also in a state of imbalance, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [35]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from the smelting end and the causticizing end changed, and the overall production showed a slight decrease [17]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide changed, and the supply - demand balance also showed fluctuations [41]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate,外购 lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate import, recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes showed different trends [45][47][50]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different trends over time [52]. 3.6 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery** - Price: The prices of different types of lithium batteries showed fluctuations [56]. - Production and Sales: The monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries changed [56]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors showed fluctuations [61]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors changed [61][64]. - **Ternary Material** - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials showed fluctuations [67]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly start - up rate, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary materials changed [67]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphate** - Price: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed fluctuations [71]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly production volume, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate changed [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicle** - Production, Sales, and Export: The production volume, sales volume, and export volume of new energy vehicles changed, and the sales penetration rate also increased [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile. The price of the LC2507 contract is projected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] - The market is transitioning from trading the logic of collapsing mine - end costs to trading the trend of mine shutdowns. However, due to the lack of concentrated shutdowns of high - cost projects and relatively low costs, there is no room for price rebound [4] - For hedging, it is recommended to increase the proportion of buying hedging to 50% in the short - term, and buy spot ore and sell on the futures market to lock in processing profits. In the long - term, selling hedging should still be the main strategy, with a short - term proportion of 30% [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate declined, with positions decreasing and then stabilizing, followed by a decline with increasing positions. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan/ton week - on - week; the LC2509 contract closed at 62,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 1,450 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM basis (2505 contract) weakened by 610 yuan/ton to 2,090 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was + 490 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The lithium ore price dropped to $690/ton, but the decline rate slowed. Some mines started to cut or halt production. In May, the Bikita mining area's emissions nearly stopped, and concentrator work was expected to be cut or stopped. Dongpeng's production cut affected about 1,500 tons of LCE per month [2] - In April, China imported 622,900 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, and 28,300 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56.3% increase from the previous month. In the future, the shipments of spodumene and lithium salts from Mali's Kodal and Goulamina projects will gradually increase, while shipments from Zimbabwe projects are expected to decrease. Lithium salt imports are expected to decrease due to high inventories and the cancellation of the reserve price [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 16,093 tons, a 3.23% decrease from the previous week. The overall smelting - end operating rate was 45.75%, a decrease in operation [2] Demand - The 90 - day tariff relaxation period in the US brought a small amount of rush - shipping demand, mainly for the export of energy - storage batteries. However, the tariff level of 40.9% is still higher than the profit of battery cell manufacturers, so the overall effect is limited [2] - This week, the passenger car sales were 382,000 vehicles, among which new energy vehicle sales were 215,000 vehicles, a 3.59% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery manufacturers' orders to cathode material manufacturers in June are expected to increase month - on - month. However, due to profit losses, cathode material enterprises are maintaining rigid raw material inventory, reducing cathode material production, and actively reducing inventory [2] 3.3 Inventory - The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Upstream enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, while downstream enterprises actively reduced inventory. The lithium carbonate inventory was 13.2 tons, a decrease of 141 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased to 35,800 tons [3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The market is expected to be volatile. The price of the 2507 contract is expected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton. For inter - delivery trading, no recommendation is given for now [4][5]

碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is relatively sluggish, with the center of the spot transaction price continuing to decline. Downstream enterprises are waiting for further price drops, while upstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to sell due to losses. Traders have a strong willingness to sell. Overall, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of oversupply. The option market has a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows certain characteristics. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,280 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,487 lots, down 1732 lots; the position of the main contract is 267,396 lots, down 9504 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 740 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 36,244 lots, up 1008 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 65,250 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,600 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 1520 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 775 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,936 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5797.53 tons; the monthly export volume is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 50%, up 8 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18000 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.60 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.33 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,277,000 vehicles, up 389000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,237,000 vehicles, up 345000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 41.16%, up 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 3,075,000 vehicles, up 985000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 15.80 million vehicles, up 2.70 million vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 44.10 million vehicles, up 13.40 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.82%, down 2.04 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 15.31%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 144,258 contracts, up 14958 contracts; the total put position is 51,775 contracts, up 3584 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 35.89%, down 1.3801 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.24%, up 0.0022 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the preliminary monthly data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April are estimated to be 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year is estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. In March, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 23.82 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 32.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The import amount was 3.67 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.4%; the export amount was 20.15 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. 86% of German enterprises in China were affected by the tariff trade war, with the proportions in the machinery and automotive industries reaching 86% and 93% respectively. Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, and the financial regulatory authority and the CSRC also launched relevant policies [2].

碳酸锂周报 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/6 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。3月碳酸锂产量环比增加24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期 皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进 口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进 口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸 锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比小幅上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑， 氢氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 淡季需求偏弱，价格偏弱震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 需求端：5月整体排产预计环比持平。3月， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The production of lithium carbonate in April was basically stable, the production of cathode materials increased slightly, and the supply - demand imbalance narrowed. Social inventories continued to accumulate, and the raw material inventory in the downstream link was at a high level. In the short term, downstream procurement still followed the long - order and customer - supply models, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate had an average price of 69,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate had an average price of 68,200 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [1] - The futures contracts of lithium carbonate (2505, 2506, 2507, 2508, 2509) all showed price increases, with increases of 0.96%, 1.11%, 1.14%, 0.84%, and 0.78% respectively [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) had an average price of 795 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) had an average price of 950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) had an average price of 1610 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) had an average price of 6700 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) had an average price of 7875 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 146,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 117,685 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) was 123,955 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1750 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract was 970 yuan, down 1590 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 60 yuan, down 40 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract was 80 yuan, down 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) was 131,605 tons, an increase of 585 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) was 52,130 tons, an increase of 398 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) was 41,734 tons, an increase of 787 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) was 37,741 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) were 31,735 tons, an increase of 350 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally was 73,659 yuan, and the profit was - 4669 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally was 75,209 yuan, and the profit was - 7893 yuan [3] Industry News - Shandong's 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project was postponed. The 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project of WANRUN NEW ENERGY was postponed to December 2025, and the Lubei WANRUN project had basically completed construction and was in the process of production debugging [3]