Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, indicating that both supply and demand are increasing, and the market is in a weakly oscillating state. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a relatively bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 73,880 yuan, with a change of 880 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 50, and the open interest was 3,467. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,260 yuan, the trading volume was 802,006, and the open interest was 364,002 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 36,631 hands, an increase of 1,683 hands compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 870 yuan, and spot - 2511 was 490 yuan. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was -380 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 871 yuan, and the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,865 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,750 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 80,520 yuan [1]. - **Industry Chain Related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,930 yuan, and the price of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 113,450 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 214 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Kodal Minerals obtained approval from the Malian government to export 125,000 tons of spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, with the value ranging from -2 to 2, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - On September 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a low. The spot market had fair trading volume, and the basis premium decreased. The cost side saw an increase in the price of spodumene concentrate and a decrease in the price of lepidolite. The supply side witnessed a rise in lithium carbonate production last week, with a slight increase in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased last week, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, the 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons, and the social inventory decreased. Considering all factors, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and decreasing social inventory, the short - term supply and demand both strengthened. The impact from the Jiangxi mine end has been eliminated, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed much. The market is still easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, appropriately buy options to protect positions, and take appropriate profit - taking on the previously bought straddle options. [1] Summary According to Related Information Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 73,000 yuan/ton, that of the consecutive - one contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, the consecutive - two contract was 73,580 yuan/ton, and the consecutive - three contract was 77,700 yuan/ton. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 712,151 (+269,351) lots, and the open interest was 353,674 (+7,626) lots. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 340 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 440 yuan/ton. The basis was 1,580 yuan/ton. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 874 US dollars/ton. [1] Industry News - **Salt Lake Mining Rights**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) responded during a research reception that the current mining rights compliance inspection is a new trend of stricter industry supervision, reflecting the strict control of the regulatory authorities over the compliance of lithium resource development and utilization activities. The company's mining business is fully compliant, and its production and operation are running stably. - **Ioneer's Project**: Ioneer reduced the leaching time and increased the plant output. The economic viability of its Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada has been substantially improved. The updated mine plan shows that the unlevered net present value of the mine increased by 38% to $1.89 billion, and the unlevered internal rate of return rose to 16.8%. From the third to the twenty - fifth year, the annual production of lithium carbonate equivalent increased by 20% to 255,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate increased by 9% to 126,700 tons. The estimated all - sustaining cash cost of lithium carbonate equivalent is $5,626/ton, and the ore throughput increased by 25% from 2.4 million tons per year to 3 million tons per year. - **Kodal Minerals' Project**: Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for the spodumene concentrate produced from its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The initial export volume is 125,000 tons, but the final administrative steps in the export process need to be completed. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Inter - delivery spread: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures market is still operating weakly, but the spot supply - demand pattern is good with decreasing inventory and production. Lithium carbonate production from mica has decreased, but lithium carbonate production from spodumene has made up for it. There is uncertainty in the subsequent approval of other mines. The consumption side provides support, and lithium carbonate is expected to be supported under the influence of mine - end disturbances, but the market fluctuates greatly [3]. Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 77,000 yuan/ton and closed at 75,560 yuan/ton, a - 2.73% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 540,295 lots, and the open interest was 339,133 lots (346,605 lots the previous day). The current basis is 2,530 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,197 lots, a change of 1,310 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,500 - 80,200 yuan/ton, a - 1,300 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,350 - 76,750 yuan/ton, also a - 1,300 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a - 15 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The weekly production decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. The production from lithium spodumene increased slightly, while the production from mica decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 407 tons to 141,366 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, intermediate inventory increased slightly, and smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Pay attention to the mine - end operation situation. Although the lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported, the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10]. - In the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost - dominated situation will weaken. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased day - on - day, while the cost of purchased lithium mica decreased. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, and the cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower with sufficient profit margins [7]. - **Basis**: On September 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased week - on - week, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the historical average [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume is expected to increase by 33.62% month - on - month. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products showed different degrees of decline. The basis and futures closing prices also had corresponding changes [13][16]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate and related products had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand - side data such as the production and inventory of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also showed corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines showed different trends over time [23]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed an overall upward trend, with significant increases in imports from Australia [23]. - **Self - sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [23]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [29]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) also had corresponding changes [29]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [37][38][40]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate for production showed different trends over time [47]. - **Processing Cost Composition**: The processing cost composition of lithium spodumene and lithium mica included energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items, and showed different trends [47]. - **Other Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, and lithium hydroxide carbonization also had corresponding changes [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [58][60]. - **Battery Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells also had corresponding changes [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the profit of external raw material procurement also changed [63]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - **Inventory and Trade Volume**: The inventory, import, and export volume of ternary materials also had corresponding changes [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - profit**: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [73]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The monthly operating rate and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73][76]. - **Inventory and Export Volume**: The inventory and export volume of iron phosphate lithium also had corresponding changes [76][78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [81]. - **Sales Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also had corresponding changes [82]. - **Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers showed different trends [85].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The "trade - in" part of lithium carbonate has been suspended, and the weak oscillation continues. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 75,540 yuan, down 1,460 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 2,426 lots, down 8,111 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 11,332 lots, down 5,803 lots from T - 1 [1] - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 75,560 yuan, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 540,295 lots, up 50,237 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 339,133 lots, down 7,472 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 31,197 lots, up 1,310 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,810 yuan, up 160 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,790 yuan, up 320 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 20 yuan, up 160 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 898 US dollars, up 4 US dollars from T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,950 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,050 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Consumer Products**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 113,900 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 117,950 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,256 yuan/ton, down 1,372 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,050 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - The automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou has been suspended since August 30, 2025. Consumers who obtained the new car's "Motor Vehicle Sales Unified Invoice" and the used car's "Second - hand Car Sales Unified Invoice" before August 29, 2025 (inclusive) can submit subsidy applications after the system upgrade of the "Sui Che Gou" WeChat mini - program [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为19030吨，环比减少0.56%,高于历史同期平均水平 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为94493吨，环比增加0.91%,上周三元材 料样本企业库存为17832吨，环比增加1.22%。 3、库存: 冶炼厂库存为43336吨，环比减少7.49%,低于历史同期平均水平；下游库存为 52800吨，环比增加2.51%,高于历史同期平均水平；其他库存为45000吨，环比增 加4.19%,高于历史同期平均水平；总体库存为141136吨，环比减少0.28%,高于历 史同期平均水平。 中性。 4、盘面: 盘面:MA20向上，11合约期价收于MA20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the lithium carbonate market shows a complex pattern of supply and demand. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is anticipated to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost - side influence is changing, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 76,560 - 79,720 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,454 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production profit is 2,418 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production loss is 3,245 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. 3.2. Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.91% - 1.34% [16]. - Basis: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 13.66% - 32.12% [16]. - Registered warrants: The number was 28,957, a 5.39% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 3.37%, the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 2.79%, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.96%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.02% [16]. 3.3. Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of spodumene and lithium mica concentrate decreased [16]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend, and the production from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt - lake also changed [27][30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium ore increased, especially from Australia [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages in most months, with the shortage situation varying [30]. 3.4. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends, and the production from different raw materials also changed [33]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, especially from Chile [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation fluctuating [38]. 3.5. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide changed, and the production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also varied [41]. - Export: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased [43]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [43]. 3.6. Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and different recycling materials showed different trends. The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes also changed [46][48][50]. 3.7. Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products showed different trends in weekly and monthly terms, with the inventory levels of different sources (downstream, smelting plants) also varying [53]. 3.8. Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells showed different trends for different types (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) [57]. - Shipment: The monthly shipment of power battery cells also showed different trends for different types [57]. 3.9. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends [62]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) [62]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [65]. 3.10. Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends [68]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends for different types [68]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [70]. 3.11. Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [72]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [75]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [76]. 3.12. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Sales: The sales of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an increasing trend [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,138 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 80,393 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.34%, with a production profit of 3,613 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 2,995 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong motivation [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.73%; the downstream inventory was 51,507 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.68%; other inventory was 43,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46% [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 will be 84,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%, and the import volume will be 18,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.62%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 80,940 - 84,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The daily opening rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.77%. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.22%. The supply - demand balance was - 1090 tons, a significant change from the previous month [17] - **Lithium Hydroxide Market**: The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94%. The monthly net export volume was 4,777.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. The supply - demand balance was - 3149 tons, a change from the previous month [17] - **Downstream Market**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 72,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.71%. The monthly production of ternary materials was 25,130 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.95% [17] 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines has also changed over time. For example, the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed. The inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has shown different trends in different years [23] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly opening rate and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate has also changed over time [28] - **Import and Supply - Demand Balance**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months [33] 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [36] - **Export and Supply - Demand Balance**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months [39] 3.6 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelters, downstream, and others) have different trends [49] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different links (smelters and downstream) has changed [49] 3.7 Demand - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells and the winning bid of energy storage projects have also changed [53][55] - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have different trends [58][61] - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, opening rate, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have different trends [64][66] - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron Demand**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, opening rate, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron have different trends [68][71] - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles have different trends [76][80]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The option market sentiment has turned bullish, with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis and the green column converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,760 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,510 lots, down 3,052 lots; the position of the main contract is 390,069 lots, down 5,033 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 820 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,440 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,275 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1 percentage point; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The monthly production of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units; the monthly export volume is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 1.308 million units, up 600,000 units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 159,626 contracts, up 14,286 contracts; the total put position is 146,399 contracts, down 1,225 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 91.71%, down 9.8577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.44%, up 0.0080 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 866,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% compared with the same period in August last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 13.611 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The retail sales of the national passenger car new - energy market were 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the national passenger car new - energy market was 58.0%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [2] - From January - July 2025, the top ten SUV manufacturers in terms of sales sold a total of 5.599 million vehicles, accounting for 67.2% of the total SUV sales. Among these ten enterprises, the sales of Tesla and GAC Toyota decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, while the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees [2] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, and the plant has moved from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase [2] - Sigma Lithium's lithium concentrate production in the second quarter reached 68,368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%, exceeding the quarterly target of 67,500 tons; the full - sustaining cost dropped to 594 US dollars/ton, lower than the target value of 660 US dollars [2]

Group 1: Research Views - Yesterday, all lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with the main contract dropping to 80,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 85,700 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained at 83,400 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons [3]. - The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that the Department of Homeland Security will subject steel, copper, lithium, caustic soda, and red dates to stricter reviews due to alleged human - rights violations against the Uyghur population in these industries. However, for lithium batteries exported to the US, raw material procurement is generally avoided. In July 2025, China imported 750,700 tons of spodumene, a month - on - month increase of 174,800 tons; the import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,853 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. Spodumene - based lithium production increased by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, lepidolite - based lithium production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons, salt - lake - based lithium production increased by 300 tons to 2,742 tons, and recycled - material - based lithium production increased by 157 tons to 1,679 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased this week, with the total inventory decreasing by 162 tons to 142,256 tons. The upstream reduced inventory, while other links and downstream increased inventory [3]. - Currently, the production issues of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and is facing short - term回调 pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 87,540 yuan/ton on August 19 to 80,980 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 6,560 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 87,580 yuan/ton to 81,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,540 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium ores, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 978 US dollars/ton to 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased from 1,385 yuan/ton to 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) decreased from 2,185 yuan/ton to 2,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased from 7,765 yuan/ton to 7,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton to 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton [5]. - For lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized), industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,300 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 7,960 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 22 yuan/ton [5]. - Among precursors and cathode materials, the prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - For batteries, the prices of some battery cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 square ternary battery cell, 523 cylindrical ternary battery, and cobalt acid battery cell [5]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][29][30][31][32][33]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [35][36][37][38]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [40][41][42][43]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [44][45]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has served many leading spot enterprises. He has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure [49]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [49]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Square, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [52]