（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约跳水转跌，现报186020元/吨，此前一度涨近7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that lithium carbonate has seen a significant price increase, with the main contract rising by 6% in a single day, currently priced at 164,800.00 yuan [1]

Group 1 - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.3% [1] - China successfully launched a total of 19 low-orbit satellites for satellite internet [1] - The Supreme People's Procuratorate emphasizes the legal protection of economic and financial security, with a focus on severe economic crimes [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits and trading margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts [1] - The national civil aviation passenger transport volume during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 95 million [1] - There are rumors regarding a large number of fake accounts participating in Hong Kong stock IPOs, which regulatory insiders have dismissed as unfounded [1] Group 3 - Beijing has established a professional title evaluation for robotics, with evaluations set to begin in July [1] - A press conference by the State Council Information Office is scheduled for January 21 to discuss the achievements in industrial and information technology development by 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a 1.16% week - on - week increase, equal to the historical average for the same period. In December 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a 1.23% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a 13.46% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 99,894 tons, a 0.98% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,581 tons, a 3.22% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average for the same period. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 124,131 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production income is - 694 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 123,199 yuan/ton, a 2.10% daily increase, and the production income is 5,161 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit; the production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market trend: The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - led, and lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 136,620 - 143,300 [9]. - Influencing factors: Positive factors include the production suspension and reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [11][12]. - Main logic: Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market sentiment fluctuates due to news [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply and demand analysis: As mentioned above, the supply and demand situations of lithium carbonate are presented in terms of production, inventory, and import/export [8][9]. - Cost and profit analysis: Different raw material sources have different cost - profit situations, with the salt lake side having obvious cost advantages [10]. - Market trend prediction: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate within the specified range, affected by both positive and negative factors [9][11][12]. - Main risk points: Production suspension/reduction and maintenance plans may impact the market, and the start - up time of industry consolidation is uncertain [14]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data 2.1 Market Overview - Price changes: The prices of various lithium - related products, such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 7.93%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4.71% [16]. - Futures data: The closing price of the futures contract increased, and the number of registered warrants increased by 8.81% [16]. 2.2 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium ore increased, and the import volume of lithium concentrate also increased significantly. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations [19][25]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The weekly and monthly production and capacity of different production methods (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased, and the export volume also increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of different sources (causticization, smelting) showed certain changes [19][39]. 2.3 Demand - Side Data - Lithium batteries: The monthly production volume of lithium battery cells, the monthly battery loading volume, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed growth trends. The prices of different types of batteries also changed [56]. - Ternary precursors: The price, cost, and production volume of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations. The monthly supply - demand balance also changed, with a short - term supply surplus in some months [61][64]. - Ternary materials: The price, cost - profit, production volume, and export/import volume of ternary materials showed different trends. The weekly start - up rate also fluctuated [66]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The price, cost - profit, production volume, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate/phosphate showed certain changes. The monthly start - up rate also changed [71]. - New energy vehicles: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles all increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed an upward trend [78]. 2.4 Inventory Data - Lithium carbonate: The overall inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties [10][19][52]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed certain fluctuations [52]. - Lithium batteries: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types [58]. - Ternary precursors: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed certain changes [61]. - Ternary materials: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [68]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed certain trends [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate is continuously improving, but industrial games are intensifying, and the market has risen too rapidly [1] - In the short - term (within 1 month), due to the continuous improvement of supply - demand and the stimulation of rising sentiment, the price center will continue to rise, and it is difficult to find short - selling opportunities. In the medium - term (within 3 months), as the price continues to rise and some mica mines may resume production at the end of the first quarter, appropriate short - selling at high prices can be considered [85] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review and Logic Sorting - **Price Trends**: In August 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices bottomed out and rebounded with a daily limit of 8%, reaching 81,000 yuan/ton. In September, prices fluctuated weakly, and in October, they continued to rise. In November, prices exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton, and in December, they exceeded 110,000 yuan/ton in the first and middle of the month, then fluctuated sharply [7] - **Key Influencing Factors**: Supply - side factors include the shutdown of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is expected to affect the monthly supply of about 7,000 - 8,000 tons, and the "Sword Action" in Jiangxi Province. Demand - side factors include strong downstream demand in the power battery and energy storage markets. Exchange regulatory measures include adjustments to trading fees, price limits, and trading margins [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has rebounded, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has fluctuated. The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows a tight balance in some months. The shutdown of key mines and policy restrictions have affected supply, and the growth of new supply is limited [9][12] - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have shown certain trends. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months [15][24] - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months [27][29] - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have been affected by factors such as raw material prices and processing costs [32] - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, monthly and weekly inventory, has shown different trends [39] - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and sales of lithium batteries have changed. The demand for energy storage batteries is strong, while the growth of power batteries has slowed down [45] - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [51][54] - **Demand - Ternary Material**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also shown different situations [57] - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [61][64] - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed, and the inventory of dealers has also been monitored [69] 3.3 Futures Market Performance - The price, trading volume, and moving averages of the LC futures main contract have shown certain trends [76] 3.4 Summary and Operation Suggestions - **Supply - Side**: There is a tight balance with continuous disturbances, including mine shutdowns, policy restrictions, and limited new supply [81] - **Demand - Side**: There is a structural differentiation, with strong energy storage demand and a slowdown in power demand [82] - **Cost - Side**: There is strong rigid support, including rising ore prices and a steep cost curve [84] - **Operation Strategy**: In the short - term, it is difficult to find short - selling opportunities, while in the medium - term, short - selling at high prices can be considered when mines resume production [85] - **Key Monitoring Indicators**: The resumption progress of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo project and energy storage order situation [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are seasonally weak in the short - term, but the logic of positive long - term demand is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The expected positive demand provides support for the lithium salt price [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures contracts saw a high - level correction. The 2601 contract closed at 120,000 yuan/ton, down 7,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2605 contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, down 8,940 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 6,600 yuan/ton week - on - week to 118,500 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2601 contract) rose 14,400 yuan/ton to - 1,500 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 1,740 yuan/ton, strengthening 290 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2601 - 2605 contract spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, strengthening 1,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Policy**: In 2026, the car trade - in policy was issued. For scrapping old cars and buying new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan; for replacing with new energy vehicles, an 8% subsidy of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan [2] - **Supply**: The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a slight increase of 259 tons from last week. In terms of raw materials, the spot inventory of lithium ore has arrived at ports one after another, and the spot inventory at ports of traders has increased slightly [2] - **Demand**: Recently, many cathode material manufacturers have announced maintenance. If the maintenance is carried out as planned, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathodes in January will decrease by 13.2% month - on - month, and that of ternary cathodes will decrease slightly by 1.3% month - on - month; the production of lithium iron phosphate cells will decrease by 4.8% month - on - month, and that of ternary cells will decrease by 9% month - on - month. At the terminal, from December 1 - 28, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 1.192 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; from December 22 - 28, the energy storage winning bids (excluding centralized procurement) were 13.7GWh, a year - on - year increase of 76% and a month - on - month increase of 30% [2] - **Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week. The inventories of upstream and downstream are still decreasing, and downstream has no restocking demand. This week, 2,420 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 20,281 lots [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - The weakening signs of the fundamentals in the off - season are gradually emerging. The weekly inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, the number of cathode maintenance enterprises has increased, overseas ores have arrived at ports one after another, the overall supply remains at a high level, and the upward price space is limited. On the demand side, although the subsidy for mid - and low - end models in the trade - in policy has decreased, the implementation time is earlier than last year, and the market's previous pessimistic expectations for the power sector have been falsified. The energy storage shows a positive trend from the winning bid situation to the year - end rush installation, and the positive expectation logic provides strong support for the lithium salt price [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Unilateral**: High - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Inter - period**: No recommendation [4] - **Hedging**: Upstream enterprises should choose the opportunity to hedge at high levels to lock in off - season profits [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Basis Deviation to be Corrected, Cathode Plants Initiate Maintenance - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, up 18,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, up 19,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 14,250 yuan/ton to 111,900 yuan/ton. The SMM futures-spot basis (2601 contract) fell 3,830 yuan/ton to -15,900 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the resumption of production of large mines is postponed again. Overseas shipments have increased, but short-term production elasticity is limited. Many cathode material manufacturers will conduct maintenance at the end of December or early January, and the off-season has arrived as expected. Terminal performance is divided, with the domestic energy storage winning bid scale in the first three weeks of December increasing by 74% year-on-year, while the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by only 1% year-on-year [3]. - In terms of inventory, this week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 652 tons, with the destocking speed slowing down by 392 tons compared with last week. The downstream inventory destocking speed remained high, and the midstream inventory accumulation speed increased. This week, 2,350 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 17,861 lots [4]. - Regarding the future market, the off-season demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are continuously strengthening. There are large differences between bulls and bears. Bears believe that the inventory pressure will gradually increase, while bulls believe that the cathode processing fee is expected to rise through negotiation, which is beneficial to the further increase of upstream lithium salts [5]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be between 120,000 and 140,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, near - month positions are restricted, and the far - end price is relatively strong. For hedging, due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended that both upstream and downstream appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report provides charts of the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Mines) - Charts show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate in the spot and futures markets, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data sources including Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9][10][11]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple charts display the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade lithium carbonate to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate by region, the weekly production and weekly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate downstream and smelters, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [11][13][14][15][16]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Charts present the monthly production and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of ternary materials, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of various ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various domestic power lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate continuous main contract increased by 8% in a single day, currently priced at 130,400.00 yuan [1] Group 1 - The significant daily increase in lithium carbonate prices indicates strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the lithium sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for lithium mining stocks has strengthened, with significant price increases observed in various companies, driven by optimistic market sentiment regarding future demand for lithium carbonate [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Yongxing Materials saw a rise of over 7%, while Cangge Mining and Dazhong Mining increased by over 4% [1] - Other companies such as Defang Nano, Guocheng Mining, Zhongmin Resources, Hainan Mining, Jinyuan Co., and Xibu Mining experienced gains of over 3% [1] - Notably, Cangge Mining and Zhongmin Resources reached historical highs [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - The main contract for lithium carbonate surged past 130,000, with an intraday increase of over 8%, marking a new high since November 2023 [1] - Analysts express optimism about the future demand in the lithium carbonate spot market, contributing to the ongoing rise in lithium prices [1] Group 3: Investor Activity - There is a noticeable increase in participation from various investors, with a significant rise in capital flow [1] - The recent strong performance of lithium carbonate futures has attracted more traders, particularly those with capital exceeding 100,000 [1] - Industrial clients have entered the market early for hedging purposes, which may lead to increased margin requirements and higher open interest in the main contracts [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The crackdown on illegal mining of mineral resources by the Work Safety Committee Office of the State Council has further catalyzed bullish sentiment. Coupled with the market's re - pricing of the delayed resumption time of lithium mines, it has triggered a rise in lithium carbonate futures prices. Based on the destocking logic caused by the mismatch between supply and demand in the fundamentals, it is expected that the futures price will maintain a bullish trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 500 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,850 yuan/ton, with a change of 500 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 1,404 yuan, with a change of 26 yuan [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 125 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,125 yuan, with a change of 205 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 11,425 yuan, with a change of 575 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 12,875 yuan, with a change of 575 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 40,735 yuan, with a change of 122.5 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 164,700 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 147,300 yuan, with a change of 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 147,100 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,650 yuan, with a change of 0 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 20,860 yuan, with a change of - 5,480 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, with a change of - 100 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 110,425 tons, with a change of - 1,044 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 18,090 tons, with a change of - 1,071 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,485 tons, with a change of - 1,253 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 50,850 tons, with a change of 1,280 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 16,651 tons, with a change of 112 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 107,766 yuan, and the profit is - 10,149 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 103,138 yuan, and the profit is - 7,988 yuan [3]