Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China, the US, and the Eurozone shows mixed trends, with trade - related factors and policy expectations influencing the markets. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and investors should pay attention to specific sectors such as commodities and precious metals [1][3][4]. - The uncertainty of trade policies and the divergence between the US government and the Fed on monetary policy add to the complexity of the economic and market environment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - In China, the May data was mixed. Investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI and other indices improved slightly, but the manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank's net injection in June was high, and attention should be paid to potential policy support from the July Politburo meeting [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales declined significantly, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The June Markit manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, and the price index had a large increase. The Fed is cautious about taking action on tariffs, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage is uncertain [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI reached a high level since 2018, and the June CPI met the ECB's target, providing a basis for pausing rate - cuts [2]. Trade Negotiations - The US tariff delay policy is approaching its expiration. The EU is willing to accept the "benchmark country tax" but seeks exemptions and quotas. The EU - US trade negotiation is ongoing, and the EU denies making concessions in the technology field. The UK - US trade agreement has taken effect, and Canada has canceled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations. India and the US are deadlocked in trade negotiations [2]. Policy and Legislation - The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations. The stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July, but its prospects are unclear due to the divergence between the US government and the Fed. The US Senate has suspended the review of the "Big Beautiful" bill due to internal Republican disagreements [3]. Sector - Specific Analysis - In the commodity market, the macro - inflation trading is heating up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector depends on domestic policy expectations. Anti - dumping duties on stainless steel products from certain regions will continue for 5 years. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions on Russia, and the oil price is affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Key Data - China's June official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, and comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the June CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year [2][7].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

| FEEHING | 贵金属日评20250701：特朗普政府将给各国指定关税，贝森特表示不宜扩大长期国债发行 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-06-24 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 767. 58 | 771.86 | 1.18 | 766. 40 | -4. 28 | | | | | 成交量 | 169217.00 | 248445.00 | -37.160.00 | 211285.00 | 42, 068. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 155821.00 | 129822.00 | 8, 477.00 | 147344.00 | 25, 999. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 18237.00 | 18237.00 | 18213.00 | 0. 00 | 24. 00 | 上海 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: -1 (Weakly bearish) [9] - Silver: 1 (Weakly bullish) [9] - Copper: 0 (Neutral) [13] - Tin: 0 (Neutral) [16] - Nickel: 0 (Neutral) [21] - Stainless Steel: 0 (Neutral) [21] - Lithium Carbonate: -1 (Weakly bearish) [24] - Industrial Silicon: 0 (Neutral) [27] - Polysilicon: -1 (Weakly bearish) [27] - Iron Ore: -1 (Weakly bearish) [28] - Rebar: 0 (Neutral) [32] - Hot - Rolled Coil: 0 (Neutral) [32] - Ferrosilicon: 0 (Neutral) [37] - Silicomanganese: 0 (Neutral) [37] - Coke: 0 (Neutral) [41] - Coking Coal: 0 (Neutral) [41] - Thermal Coal: 0 (Neutral) [46] - Logs: -1 (Weakly bearish) [49] - Rubber: 0 (Neutral) [51] - Synthetic Rubber: 0 (Neutral) [58] - LLDPE: 0 (Neutral) [61] - PP: -1 (Weakly bearish) [65] - Caustic Soda: -1 (Weakly bearish) [71] - Pulp: 0 (Neutral) [75] - Glass: -1 (Weakly bearish) [81] - Methanol: 0 (Neutral) [86] - Urea: 0 (Neutral) [90] - Styrene: -1 (Weakly bearish) [92] - Soda Ash: -1 (Weakly bearish) [98] - LPG: 0 (Neutral) [107] - PVC: -1 (Weakly bearish) [115] - Fuel Oil: 0 (Neutral) [116] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 (Neutral) [116] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): 0 (Neutral) [132] - Staple Fiber: 0 (Neutral) [135] - Bottle Chip: 0 (Neutral) [135] - Offset Printing Paper: 0 (Neutral) [138] - Palm Oil: 0 (Neutral) [147] - Soybean Oil: 0 (Neutral) [147] - Soybean Meal: +1 (Weakly bullish) [150] - Soybean: +1 (Weakly bullish) [150] - Corn: 0 (Neutral) [153] - Sugar: -1 (Weakly bearish) [157] - Cotton: 0 (Neutral) [163] - Peanut: 0 (Neutral) [166] 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives investment ratings and trend analysis for each commodity [1][2]. - For each commodity, it presents detailed fundamental data, such as prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads, and also includes relevant macro and industry news [6][11][15]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical cease - fire, with a trend strength of -1, prices may be under pressure [2][9]. - **Silver**: Continuing to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment, firm prices, with a neutral trend strength. China's manufacturing PMI improvement, trade agreement hopes, and some industry developments affect the market [11][13]. - **Tin**: Tight current situation but weak expectations, neutral trend strength [14][16]. - **Nickel**: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential, neutral trend [18][21]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing, steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity, neutral trend [18][21]. Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The contradiction of warehouse receipts is relieved, and the price is running weakly, with a trend strength of -1 [22][24]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream factories are resuming production, and the futures price may回调, neutral trend [25][27]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the actual spot trading situation, with a trend strength of -1 [25][27]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range shock, trend strength of -1 [28]. - **Rebar**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [30][32]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [35][37]. - **Silicomanganese**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [35][37]. - **Coke**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [38][41]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, wide - range shock, neutral trend [39][41]. - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing with a shock, neutral trend [43][46]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - term fundamental improvement in the producing area is limited, neutral trend [4][140]. - **Soybean Oil**: The old - crop soybean inventory in the US is high, and the new - crop planting area is slightly reduced, neutral trend [4][140]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the report is released, the US soybeans rise slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate, trend strength of +1 [148][150]. - **Soybean**: May rebound and fluctuate, trend strength of +1 [148][150]. - **Corn**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [60][151]. - **Sugar**: Strong in the domestic market but weak overseas, trend strength of -1 [61][157]. - **Cotton**: Lacking effective drivers, the price rises and then falls back, neutral trend [62][163]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the bottom, neutral trend [64][166]. Others - **Logs**: The main contract is switching, wide - range shock, trend strength of -1 [47][49]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [50][51]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [56][58]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [59][61]. - **PP**: Spot price fluctuates, trading is light, trend strength of -1 [64][65]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the later period, trend strength of -1 [67][71]. - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [73][75]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength of -1 [79][81]. - **Methanol**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [83][86]. - **Urea**: Fluctuating under pressure, neutral trend [87][90]. - **Styrene**: Short - term fluctuation, trend strength of -1 [92]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, trend strength of -1 [96][98]. - **LPG**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [100][107]. - **PVC**: The trend is weak, trend strength of -1 [112][115]. - **Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and short - term fluctuations decrease, neutral trend [116]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise, neutral trend [116]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Temporarily on the sidelines, pay attention to the price - holding ability in late July, neutral trend [118][132]. - **Staple Fiber**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [133][135]. - **Bottle Chip**: Short - term fluctuation, long PR and short PF strategy, neutral trend [133][135]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [137][138].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1 [2][8] - Silver: Continuing to surge; trend strength is 1 [2][8] - Copper: Favorable sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0 [2][12] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0 [13][15] - Nickel: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 765.46 with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 768.98 with a night - session increase of 0.54%. The closing price of Comex Gold 2508 was 3315.00 with a daily increase of 0.88% [5] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 147,042, a decrease of 22,175 from the previous day, and the position was 119,087, a decrease of 10,735 [5] - **ETF and inventory**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF was 952.53, a decrease of 2 from the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 18,237 kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Silver - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8762 with a daily decline of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 8722.00 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The closing price of Comex Silver 2508 was 36.330 with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 504,424, an increase of 34,875 from the previous day, and the position was 277,702, a decrease of 37,746 [5] - **ETF and inventory**: The position of SLV Silver ETF (the day before yesterday) was 14,826.61, a decrease of 40. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 1,299,756 kg, an increase of 4093 from the previous day [5] Copper - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,870 with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 79780 with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,878 with a daily decline of 0.01% [10] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,945, a decrease of 30,811 from the previous day, and the position was 212,911, a decrease of 2,794 [10] - **Inventory and spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,851, an increase of 505 from the previous day. The LME Copper cash premium was 181.69, a decrease of 58.98 from the previous day [10] - **Macro and industry news**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, and the new order index returned to the expansion range. Chile's Antofagast hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres mine through expansion and upgrading [10][12] Tin - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,110 with a daily decline of 0.28%, and the night - session closing price was 267,010 with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750 with a daily increase of 0.55% [14] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 85,038, a decrease of 23,766 from the previous day, and the position was 31,484, a decrease of 1,518 [14] - **Inventory and spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,750, an increase of 199 from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,300, a decrease of 1,100 from the previous day [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,610 [17] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 86,158, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 146,051 [17] - **Industry news**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF phase - I project entered the trial - production stage [17][18]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump faces delays in the Senate, with a vote postponed to June 30, and is estimated to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there is no reason to increase the issuance of long-term national debt given current yield levels, but hopes for a decline in yields as inflation slows [1] - The European Central Bank maintains a 2% inflation target and considers the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) as an appropriate measure, while also suggesting the inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs in inflation statistics [3] Group 2 - Germany's June CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, reaching the European Central Bank's target level for the first time in nearly a year [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve official reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, with three rate cuts anticipated next year [2] - The U.S. White House announced the resumption of trade negotiations with Canada following the cancellation of the digital services tax [1]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance announced that foreign investors can offset 10% of the corresponding tax amount based on the investment amount when directly investing in qualified profit distributions [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [6] International News - Goldman Sachs has brought forward its prediction for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to September [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July [8] - The European Union will extend sanctions against Russia for another six months until January 31, 2026 [8] - The Chicago Business Activity Index for June fell to its lowest level since January, while the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index has contracted for the fifth consecutive month [9] - The White House announced that President Trump will meet with his trade team this week to determine national tariff rates [10]

周一，美国财长贝森特表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议；考虑 到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理。对于鲍威尔的继任者，贝森特提到了 两种可能：任命一位新成员，或从现有的美联储理事中挑选。他还表示，稳定币立法可能在7月中旬前 出台。 扩大长期国债发行规模不合理 美国财长贝森特表示，考虑到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理，尽管他仍 希望随着通胀放缓，各期限的利率将会下降。他周一接受媒体采访时，被问及是否应增加长期美债在美 国财政部债务发行中的占比时表示： 我们为什么要这么做？真正该这么做的时间是在2021年、2022年。 在当前利率水平下我们为什么要这么做？我们的利率已经高于长期水平超过一个标准差。 贝森特去年曾多次批评前美国财政部长耶伦在债务发行中过于依赖短期国债，称其目的是为了在大选前 维持较低的长期借贷成本、刺激经济。但自他上任以来，仍延续了耶伦的债务发行策略。 新贸易协议将至 贝森特周一表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议。"进入最后一 周，随着压力增加，将会有一波公告。财政部、贸易代表办公室、商务部 ...

Core Insights - The stocks of several companies related to cryptocurrency and financial services experienced significant gains, with SRM rising by 10.68%, Bakkt by 10.63%, and MFH by 9.97% [1] - The increase in stock prices is linked to the anticipation of stablecoin legislation completion by mid-July, as stated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1] Company Performance - SRM saw a notable increase of 10.68% [1] - Bakkt's stock rose by 10.63% [1] - MFH experienced a gain of 9.97% [1] - RVYL increased by 9.88% [1] - CIFR rose by 8.80% [1] - Galaxy Digital, which went public directly in the U.S., saw an increase of 8.36% [1] - Robinhood, a popular brokerage, rose nearly 7% [1] - BTC Digital and Circle both experienced gains of 6.10% and 6.08% respectively [1] - Robinhood also had a separate increase of 5% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]