Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

| FEEHING | 贵金属日评20250701：特朗普政府将给各国指定关税，贝森特表示不宜扩大长期国债发行 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-06-24 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 767. 58 | 771.86 | 1.18 | 766. 40 | -4. 28 | | | | | 成交量 | 169217.00 | 248445.00 | -37.160.00 | 211285.00 | 42, 068. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 155821.00 | 129822.00 | 8, 477.00 | 147344.00 | 25, 999. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 18237.00 | 18237.00 | 18213.00 | 0. 00 | 24. 00 | 上海 ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 7 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 9 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 9 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 11 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 13 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 13 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 22 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 25 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 29 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 31 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1 [2][8] - Silver: Continuing to surge; trend strength is 1 [2][8] - Copper: Favorable sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0 [2][12] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0 [13][15] - Nickel: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 765.46 with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 768.98 with a night - session increase of 0.54%. The closing price of Comex Gold 2508 was 3315.00 with a daily increase of 0.88% [5] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 147,042, a decrease of 22,175 from the previous day, and the position was 119,087, a decrease of 10,735 [5] - **ETF and inventory**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF was 952.53, a decrease of 2 from the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 18,237 kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Silver - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8762 with a daily decline of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 8722.00 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The closing price of Comex Silver 2508 was 36.330 with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 504,424, an increase of 34,875 from the previous day, and the position was 277,702, a decrease of 37,746 [5] - **ETF and inventory**: The position of SLV Silver ETF (the day before yesterday) was 14,826.61, a decrease of 40. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 1,299,756 kg, an increase of 4093 from the previous day [5] Copper - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,870 with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 79780 with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,878 with a daily decline of 0.01% [10] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,945, a decrease of 30,811 from the previous day, and the position was 212,911, a decrease of 2,794 [10] - **Inventory and spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,851, an increase of 505 from the previous day. The LME Copper cash premium was 181.69, a decrease of 58.98 from the previous day [10] - **Macro and industry news**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, and the new order index returned to the expansion range. Chile's Antofagast hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres mine through expansion and upgrading [10][12] Tin - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,110 with a daily decline of 0.28%, and the night - session closing price was 267,010 with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750 with a daily increase of 0.55% [14] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 85,038, a decrease of 23,766 from the previous day, and the position was 31,484, a decrease of 1,518 [14] - **Inventory and spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,750, an increase of 199 from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,300, a decrease of 1,100 from the previous day [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,610 [17] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 86,158, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 146,051 [17] - **Industry news**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF phase - I project entered the trial - production stage [17][18]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump faces delays in the Senate, with a vote postponed to June 30, and is estimated to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there is no reason to increase the issuance of long-term national debt given current yield levels, but hopes for a decline in yields as inflation slows [1] - The European Central Bank maintains a 2% inflation target and considers the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) as an appropriate measure, while also suggesting the inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs in inflation statistics [3] Group 2 - Germany's June CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, reaching the European Central Bank's target level for the first time in nearly a year [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve official reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, with three rate cuts anticipated next year [2] - The U.S. White House announced the resumption of trade negotiations with Canada following the cancellation of the digital services tax [1]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance announced that foreign investors can offset 10% of the corresponding tax amount based on the investment amount when directly investing in qualified profit distributions [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [6] International News - Goldman Sachs has brought forward its prediction for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to September [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July [8] - The European Union will extend sanctions against Russia for another six months until January 31, 2026 [8] - The Chicago Business Activity Index for June fell to its lowest level since January, while the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index has contracted for the fifth consecutive month [9] - The White House announced that President Trump will meet with his trade team this week to determine national tariff rates [10]

周一，美国财长贝森特表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议；考虑 到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理。对于鲍威尔的继任者，贝森特提到了 两种可能：任命一位新成员，或从现有的美联储理事中挑选。他还表示，稳定币立法可能在7月中旬前 出台。 扩大长期国债发行规模不合理 美国财长贝森特表示，考虑到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理，尽管他仍 希望随着通胀放缓，各期限的利率将会下降。他周一接受媒体采访时，被问及是否应增加长期美债在美 国财政部债务发行中的占比时表示： 我们为什么要这么做？真正该这么做的时间是在2021年、2022年。 在当前利率水平下我们为什么要这么做？我们的利率已经高于长期水平超过一个标准差。 贝森特去年曾多次批评前美国财政部长耶伦在债务发行中过于依赖短期国债，称其目的是为了在大选前 维持较低的长期借贷成本、刺激经济。但自他上任以来，仍延续了耶伦的债务发行策略。 新贸易协议将至 贝森特周一表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议。"进入最后一 周，随着压力增加，将会有一波公告。财政部、贸易代表办公室、商务部 ...

Core Insights - The stocks of several companies related to cryptocurrency and financial services experienced significant gains, with SRM rising by 10.68%, Bakkt by 10.63%, and MFH by 9.97% [1] - The increase in stock prices is linked to the anticipation of stablecoin legislation completion by mid-July, as stated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1] Company Performance - SRM saw a notable increase of 10.68% [1] - Bakkt's stock rose by 10.63% [1] - MFH experienced a gain of 9.97% [1] - RVYL increased by 9.88% [1] - CIFR rose by 8.80% [1] - Galaxy Digital, which went public directly in the U.S., saw an increase of 8.36% [1] - Robinhood, a popular brokerage, rose nearly 7% [1] - BTC Digital and Circle both experienced gains of 6.10% and 6.08% respectively [1] - Robinhood also had a separate increase of 5% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July, which could create a new source of demand for U.S. Treasury securities [1] Group 1 - The potential completion of stablecoin legislation is expected to influence the demand dynamics for U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The introduction of stablecoins could provide an alternative investment vehicle, thereby impacting the overall market for government securities [1]