Group 1 - The central banks are expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate decisions, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to implement significant rate cuts despite political pressure [1][2] - The market anticipates a potential resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in September, but the extent of any cuts is expected to be limited to 25 basis points rather than 50 [2] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and is expected to conclude its current easing cycle after November [3] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings indicates that Indian companies are not significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs, but sectors like pharmaceuticals may face increased pressure due to secondary effects of tariffs [4] - If the U.S. maintains higher tariffs compared to other Asian markets, it could pose moderate downside risks to India's projected economic growth rate of 6.5% for FY2026 [4] - The potential for over-supply shifts towards India due to U.S. tariffs could lead to a decrease in domestic prices for products like steel and chemicals, creating a ripple effect in the market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is experiencing high - level fluctuations due to unclear inflation prospects. The price of precious metals is affected by factors such as the US inflation outlook, macro - data, and geopolitical situations. It is expected that precious metals will continue to fluctuate at high levels. If the precious metals maintain a bullish trend, gold has higher certainty due to its monetary and safe - haven attributes, while silver may have greater upside potential under the support of gold and abundant liquidity [3][8][72]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Performance**: London gold traded between $3405 - $3330 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.86%. London silver traded between $38.7 - $37.5, with a weekly decline of 0.86%. Shanghai gold traded between 789 - 773 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.52%. Shanghai silver traded between 9368 - 9135 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The US dollar index fell to the 97 - 98 range, with a weekly decline of 0.33%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded from its previous low, closing at 4.32% on Friday [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The market is trading around the US inflation outlook. The unexpected PPI data has increased concerns about inflation and dampened interest - rate cut expectations, which has hindered the rebound of precious metals. The possibility of a缓和 in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has also put pressure on precious metals [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, it is advisable to wait and see [11]. 2. Macro - level Data Tracking - **US Economic Growth**: The US GDP growth in the second quarter was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, a detailed analysis shows that the growth may be illusory. The significant decline in imports has inflated the net - export component, and the consumption and investment sectors are showing signs of weakness. Retail data is volatile, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations are also affected by tariffs [26][28]. - **PMI Indicators**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8. Tariffs have brought price pressures and led to a contraction in orders and employment [33]. - **Employment**: The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July were 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downward, causing market panic and raising questions about data credibility [38]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in July showed a moderate rebound, and the PPI reached a high since February. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be further transmitted in the future. Although some tariffs have been postponed or cancelled, the risk of stagflation has not been eliminated [40][42]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The report presents the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but no specific analysis is provided [46]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the total global gold supply increased by 1% to 4,974 tons, and the total demand increased by 1% to 4,554 tons. Investment demand reached a four - year high, while jewelry consumption hit a record low. Central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase, and investment, central - bank purchases, and technology demand are likely to be positive factors, while jewelry demand may be under pressure [50]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, an increase of 2% year - on - year, and the demand was 36,208 tons, a decrease of 3% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 4,634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3,658 tons. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry, which has been growing rapidly, is likely to slow down [62]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold, especially developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India. China has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [60].

Core Viewpoint - The market has significantly increased the pricing for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest a cautious approach to any substantial easing, primarily due to the risk of "stagflation" rather than a straightforward demand decline [2][13]. Group 1: Reasons Against Significant Rate Cuts - Reason 1: Rate cuts cannot address "stagflation" as the U.S. economy faces increasing downward pressure on total demand, with private sector final sales declining at an annualized rate of 1.2% in Q2, the lowest level in 2023 [2][8]. - Reason 2: The assumption of "ignoring inflation" is invalid, as tariff-induced inflation is not fully passed on to consumers, and a significant rate cut could lead to widespread price increases, exacerbating inflation rather than alleviating it [8][9]. - Reason 3: Historical data shows that the Fed has only cut rates once in an environment where core CPI growth exceeded 3%, and a repeat of such a scenario could lead to increased yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's ability to control inflation [9][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Employment growth has slowed, with an average of 35,000 new non-farm jobs added over the last three months, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8]. - Inflation pressures are still building, as evidenced by the rebound in core CPI and PPI growth rates in July, alongside a decline in consumer confidence but a rise in inflation expectations [2][6]. - The potential for significant market volatility exists if the Fed were to implement large rate cuts, which could undermine trust in the Fed's inflation control measures and lead to a detrimental cycle of economic instability [12][13].

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is currently experiencing "quasi-stagflation," characterized by economic weakness and commodity inflation coexisting[1] - Manufacturing and real estate sectors have shown varying degrees of weakness, with the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48%, the lowest this year[6] - The primary drivers of U.S. economic growth are showing marginal weakness, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, largely due to a contraction in imports[6] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Current inflation may not be sufficient to prevent the restart of interest rate cuts, as resilient core service inflation has not increased significantly[10] - The July CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating that overall inflation is not as strong as anticipated[11] - Market expectations currently include three rate cuts, but this may be adjusted based on the pace of unemployment rate increases[22] Group 3: Unemployment Trends - The speed of the increase in the unemployment rate may be a key factor in determining the extent of interest rate cuts, with projections suggesting it may rise to 4.4%-4.5% by year-end[17] - The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4.0%-4.2% this year, indicating a relatively stable labor market[21] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Potential risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a more significant-than-expected weakening of the U.S. labor market[26] - The dollar index may have further downside potential, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to perform better than long-term bonds[23]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high-high" era, characterized by prolonged high tariffs and interest rates, which may lead to "quasi-stagflation" pressures [1] Group 1 - The combination of high tariffs and interest rates presents a typical policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high for longer" era characterized by sustained high tariffs and interest rates, leading to "stagflation-like" pressures that suppress overall demand and economic growth [3][4]. Group 1: Stagnation Factors - The combination of high tariffs and high interest rates is significantly suppressing demand in the U.S. economy. The effective average tariff rate is projected to rise from 17.3% to 20.5%, indicating a long-term institutionalization of tariff policies [6][11]. - Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can either reduce corporate profits or diminish consumer purchasing power, ultimately leading to suppressed total demand [6][7]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, reaching $27 billion in June, indicating that the impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced [7][9]. - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve due to inflation concerns, are particularly detrimental to interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, which has seen negative growth in investment since Q1 [11][15]. - The U.S. GDP data indicates a slowdown in domestic private sector final sales, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration [15][16]. Group 2: Inflationary Pressures - Despite many companies absorbing tariff costs to maintain market share, the institutionalization of tariffs may lead to increased prices for consumers as companies face squeezed profit margins [29][31]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June shows rising prices in certain goods, indicating that tariff costs are beginning to affect retail prices [31][33]. - Predictions suggest that retail automobile prices may rise by 4% to 8% by the end of the year, contributing to upward pressure on core inflation [33][34]. Group 3: AI as a Counterbalancing Factor - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving increased capital expenditure in sectors such as data centers, chip manufacturing, and software development, partially offsetting the negative impacts of high tariffs and interest rates [19][20]. - Since the release of ChatGPT, spending on data center construction has surged, nearing levels of office building expenditures, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase in investments related to AI [19][21]. - However, AI's growth may also lead to structural challenges, such as job displacement for less skilled workers, contributing to a rising unemployment rate among younger demographics [25][27]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma with simultaneous economic slowdown and persistent inflation, leading to internal divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions [36][39]. - Recent statements from various Federal Reserve officials reflect a lack of consensus on whether to lower rates or maintain them, increasing uncertainty in monetary policy and market volatility [36][39].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The U.S. technology sector is experiencing significant divergence from traditional industries, with AI-driven tech companies showing strong performance while other sectors suffer from high interest rates and tariffs [1][3][4] - The S&P 500 index growth is primarily attributed to technology stocks, indicating structural economic differences [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Trends**: In Q2 2025, investments related to AI in electricity, communications, computer equipment, and software grew by 13.9%, while other fixed asset investments declined by 1.7% [5] - **Import Data**: Computer and related equipment imports surged by 54.7% in Q2 2025, the highest in 20 years, while remaining imports showed a negative growth of 4% [6][7] - **Real Estate Market**: The U.S. real estate market remains sluggish, with negative growth for two consecutive quarters due to high mortgage rates and increased costs from tariffs [8] - **Construction Investment**: Construction investment has also been weak, attributed to the reduction of subsidies from the Biden administration and low oil prices affecting energy sector investments [9][10] - **AI's Economic Role**: While AI investments are growing rapidly, they currently cannot fully support the U.S. economy due to the limited number of jobs in the sector and its negative impact on the labor market [11] - **GDP Growth**: The rebound in Q2 2025 GDP to 3.0% was mainly due to import/export fluctuations and inventory changes, indicating underlying domestic demand is slowing [12] Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Risks**: There are signs of internal stagflation in the U.S. economy, with rising service sector prices and declining new orders [15] - **Corporate Profitability**: High tariffs are significantly suppressing corporate profit margins, as companies are reluctant to raise prices to maintain market share [16] - **Global Tariff Impact**: High global tariffs are expected to increase future price pressures on consumers, particularly in the automotive sector [17][21] - **Inflation Trends**: A structural rise in inflation is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by core commodity price increases [19] - **Federal Reserve Leadership**: The potential nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as favorable due to his academic background and previous hawkish stance, though his loyalty to Trump is questioned [20][22][24] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly the technology sector, investment trends, and implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policies.

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data revealed a significant downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs over the past two months, indicating a weakening labor market [1][2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve faces internal policy disagreements, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts due to economic slowdown, while others caution against it due to inflation concerns [1][2] - The introduction of new tariffs has raised the effective tax rate in the U.S. from 17.3% to 20.5%, potentially leading to a "stagflation-like" scenario characterized by economic weakness and persistent inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Market reactions included a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a drop in the dollar and oil prices, and a rise in gold prices driven by risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [3][4] - Key upcoming economic data releases in August, including the services PMI, CPI, and retail sales, are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions in September [3][4] - The long-term outlook suggests a continuation of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with a likelihood of lower U.S. Treasury rates and a weaker dollar, benefiting gold and non-U.S. assets [4][5]

Group 1 - The expectation of a gradual implementation of US fiscal policies is leading to a relatively weak performance of gold [1] - The recent US non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has caused the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut, shifting focus to upcoming US tariff policies [1][2] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are providing strong support for precious metal prices, with gold expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 2 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, which is putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical events and uncertainties related to the trade war [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].