Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate adjustment since December of the previous year and the first for 2025 [1][2] - The decision to lower rates was primarily driven by concerns over a weakening labor market, with non-farm payroll data indicating stagnation in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [2][5] - The internal voting on the rate cut showed a strong consensus, with an 11 to 1 vote in favor, indicating a unified stance among most Federal Reserve members despite previous dissent [5][6] Group 2 - The only dissenting vote came from Stephen Moore, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, highlighting differing views within the Federal Reserve [6] - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation remains significant, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since January of the current year [2][7] - Future rate cuts are anticipated in the upcoming meetings in October and December, as the Federal Reserve aims to address the risks in the labor market while balancing inflation concerns [7][8]

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF发起联接C（018168），国泰中证有色金 属矿业主题ETF发起联接A（018167）；国泰中证有色金属ETF发起联接C（013219），国泰中证有色金 属ETF发起联接A（013218）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 中金公司表示，美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了 克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。往前看，由于就业数 据过于疲软，我们预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高，货币 宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决 就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞胀"困境。 相关机构表示，短期内需警惕FOM ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has lowered the base interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, effective immediately [3][4] - This is the first interest rate cut by the HKMA this year [4] - The current base rate is set at 50 basis points above the lower limit of the U.S. federal funds rate target range, which was also reduced by 25 basis points on September 17 [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [6] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market is cooling, necessitating careful consideration in policy-making [6] - The Fed's decision reflects concerns over slowing job growth and rising inflation, with commodity prices being a significant factor in the recent inflation increase [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year and into the next two years [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end and 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [1] - The Federal Reserve's approach is characterized as risk management, focusing on controlling employment market downturn risks [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Citic Securities expects further rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December, suggesting that the market may see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern in bond markets and a "catch-up" in stock markets [1] - CICC notes that while another rate cut is likely in October, the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation concerns [2] - Xiangcai Securities highlights that significantly revised employment data is a major driver for the recent rate cut, indicating a shift from economic slowdown to a more severe employment downturn [3]

备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 当地时间17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预 期。 这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联 储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 市场方面，在美联储宣布决定后，美国股市收盘涨跌互现。美元指数一度下跌0.4%，但在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会后，该指数抹去跌幅并上涨0.3%。 中金公司：预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但降息门槛将越来越高 中金公司表示，此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。往前看，由 于就业数据过于疲软，预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越 高，货币宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但 无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞胀"困境。 湘财证券：预计未来美联储降息可能会更加激进 中信证券：预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态，黄金仍有不错表现 中信证券表示，等到新任美联 ...

【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.50% 中国基金报记者 李智 9 月 18 日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.50% 。 香港金管局宣布降息 25 个基点 9 月 18 日，香港金管局将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.50% ，即时生效。 香港金管局表示，基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基础利率。 目前基本利率定于当前的美国联邦基金利率目标区间的下限加 50 基点，或隔夜及 1 个月香 港银行同业拆息的 5 天移动平均数的平均值，以较高者为准。 因应美国于 9 月 17 日（美国时间）调低联邦基金利率的目标区间 25 基点，当前的美国联 邦基金利率目标区间的下限加 50 基点是 4.5% ，而隔夜及 1 个月香港银行同业拆息的 5 天 移动平均数的平均值是 2.94% ，所以根据预设公式，基本利率设定于 4.5% 。 值得注意的是，这也是香港金管局今年以来首次降息。 | | 期末數字 | | | | | (年率) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Liq ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Financial News reports that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September aligns with market expectations, indicating a measured response to economic concerns while maintaining restraint [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was anticipated by the market, but the expected 50 basis point cut did not materialize, reflecting significant divisions among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [1] Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, due to weak employment data, the Federal Reserve is expected to consider another rate cut in October. However, rising inflation will likely increase the threshold for further cuts, limiting the scope for monetary easing [1] Economic Challenges - The current issues facing the U.S. economy are not due to insufficient demand but rather rising costs. Excessive monetary easing may not resolve employment challenges and could exacerbate inflation, potentially leading the economy into a "stagflation-like" scenario [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September aligns with market expectations, indicating a measured response to economic concerns while maintaining restraint [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The anticipated 50 basis point cut did not materialize, reflecting significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future rate cuts [1] - A further rate cut is expected in October due to weak employment data, but subsequent cuts may face higher thresholds due to rising inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The current issue in the U.S. economy is not insufficient demand but rising costs, suggesting that excessive monetary easing may exacerbate inflation rather than resolve employment issues [1] - The economy may risk entering a "stagflation-like" scenario if inflation continues to rise alongside economic challenges [1]

中金研究 美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降 息存在较大分歧。往前看，由于就业数据过于疲软，我们预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高，货币宽松空 间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞 胀"困境。 点击小程序查看报告原文 本次会议前，市场对于美联储降息有很高期待，由于劳动力市场疲软，投资者普遍认为美联储现在必须出手，以防止就业数据进一步下滑。 我们认为美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。 首先，从政策立场看，美联储如期降息，并将就业放缓作为降息的理由。货币政策声明称， 决策者认为"就业方面的下行风险有所上升"，尽管他们也认为"通胀水平有所回升，且依然偏高"[1]。换句话说，就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的顾 虑，成为政策调整的直接推动力。 然而，市场此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现。 从投票结果来看[2]，本周二刚刚就任理事的米兰投下了反对票，因其主张应降息50个基点，这符合市场 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months, aimed at addressing signs of economic slowdown rather than a full-blown crisis [1][2] - The current economic context is characterized by "stagflation," with slowing growth and relatively high inflation, as indicated by a core PCE year-on-year growth of 2.86% and a core CPI growth of 3.2% [2] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The rate cut is anticipated to have a threefold positive impact on Chinese assets, including expanded monetary policy space, stabilization and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and accelerated capital reallocation [2][5] - The Chinese capital market is expected to see a wave of foreign capital inflow, benefiting from the easing of external monetary policy constraints [5] Group 3: Opportunities in A-shares and H-shares - In the A-share market, three sectors are identified as clear beneficiaries: technology growth sectors (TMT, semiconductors, AI), large financial sectors (banks, brokerages, insurance), and high-dividend stocks (electricity, oil, state-owned enterprises) [2][10] - The H-share market is more sensitive to external liquidity, with significant foreign capital allocation towards software, services, and technology hardware sectors, driven by advancements in AI technologies [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Benefits - The automotive industry is poised to benefit from both policy and funding advantages, with a target of achieving approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3% [6] - The expected sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach around 15.5 million, reflecting a growth of approximately 20% [6] - The rate cut will lower financing costs for automakers, enhance consumer confidence, and support overall consumption, particularly in the automotive sector [7][8] Group 5: Commodity and Bond Market Effects - The rate cut is expected to positively influence the commodity and bond markets, with industrial metals like copper and aluminum anticipated to break upward, and gold prices receiving short-term support [9] - The bond market is likely to see a clear downward trend in interest rates, enhancing the investment value of government and interest rate bonds [9] Group 6: Asset Allocation Strategy - Experts recommend prioritizing equity assets in the current environment, particularly in technology growth, high-dividend blue chips, and large financial sectors, while suggesting moderate allocation to bond assets [10] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential overvaluation in certain sectors due to pre-existing rate cut expectations [10]