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收官5%后： 2026年"开门红"成色初探 ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年01月24日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境超预期恶化；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 2026年"开门红"成色初探：今年开年政策发力程度明显加大，为经济"开门红"注入动能，促使开年高频经 济活动指数处于近年来历史同期高位。政策往消费、民生领域发力显著，延续2025年以来"投资于人"的政策 逻辑。不过通过专项债发力来看，基建项目可能仍需"加把劲"。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年全年经济成绩单出炉，全年增长目标顺利完成，呈现"出口进、工 业稳、投资与消费缓"的态势；宏观政策方面，财政发力明显，先有财政贴息"大礼包"，后又陆续出台了口 岸进境免税店、失能老年人服务消费补贴等政策。 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：（1）1月27日发布2025年12月工业企业利润数据；（2）1月31日发布2026年1月PMI数 据；（3）地方两会陆续召开中；（4）1月底或2月初发布2025 ...

Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][15] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and industrial GDP growth at 4.5%. Exports increased by 6.1%, while fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% [1][15] - Q4 price recovery was noted, but remained weak, with actual GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8% [1][15] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The semiconductor equipment ETF is recommended as a key investment target due to policy and performance dimensions [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its momentum, despite recent adjustments [21] Company Analysis - Zhongrong Electric (301031) is projected to exceed profit expectations for 2025, with net profits revised to 420 million, 600 million, and 800 million for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 122%, 44%, and 34% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [11] - Junda Co., Ltd. (002865) is experiencing phase losses but is accelerating its layout for new growth points, with net profit forecasts adjusted to -1.27 billion, 470 million, and 1.04 billion for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [12] - Tonghuashun (300033) has its profit forecast raised to 3 billion, 3.8 billion, and 4.8 billion for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 67%, 26%, and 26% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - Putailai (603659) is expected to see net profits of 2.39 billion, 3.1 billion, and 4.02 billion for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 101%, 30%, and 30%, maintaining a "buy" rating [14]

Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][18] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and export growth at 6.1%, while fixed asset investment declined by 3.8% [1][18] - Q4 prices showed signs of recovery but remained weak, with actual GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8% [1][18] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, supported by policy and performance metrics [24] - The semiconductor equipment ETF is recommended as a key investment target due to the clear expansion signals from TSMC [5][24] Company Recommendations - **Shouhua Gas (300483)**: Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.02/3.16/5.46 billion yuan, with a significant growth rate of 114%/210%/73%, and a "buy" rating is assigned [12] - **Keda Technology (002518)**: Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 6.4/11.2/15.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 63%/74%/36%, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - **Hunan YN (301358)**: The company has shown a clear profit turning point with revised profit expectations of 12.8/35.0/47.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a "buy" rating [14] - **Alibaba-W (09988.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain high growth in its cloud business, with projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026/FY2027/FY2028 at 101,525/141,564/184,647 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [16] - **China Taiping (00966.HK)**: The company is projected to see a significant increase in net profits for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on its low valuation metrics [17]

Group 1 - The depreciation of the Japanese yen is attributed to the limited sustainability of the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, imbalances in the international balance of payments, and uncertainties in the recovery of the Japanese economy [5] - The rise in the Japanese stock market is influenced by a new round of fiscal expansion, inflation driving corporate profit recovery, and the global AI expansion cycle [5] - The divergence between the yen's depreciation and the stock market's rise reflects differentiated pricing of structural contradictions in the Japanese economy by different asset classes [5] Group 2 - Economic data for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to show a rebound due to the early implementation of various investment stabilization policies, strong performance of export and infrastructure leading indicators, and the advance issuance of funds for "old-for-new" programs [5] - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Clearing House reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan month-on-month [5] - The bond market saw an increase in holdings across most institutions, except for credit cooperatives which reduced their bond holdings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 met expectations at 4.5%, despite high base pressure, indicating successful completion of annual targets. The contribution of net exports to the economy increased, while consumption and investment saw a slight decline [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Data Summary - Q4 GDP growth was 4.5%, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous period [6]. - December industrial added value grew by 5.2%, exceeding the expected 4.9% and up from 4.8% previously [6]. - Fixed asset investment for the entire year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4% and the previous decline of 2.6% [6]. - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and the previous 1.3% [6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - For Q1 2026, several factors such as proactive investment policies, major project launches, and strong performance in exports and infrastructure are expected to lead to a rebound in economic data, anticipating a strong start to the year [4].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The economic structure is shifting towards improvement, with expectations for a strong start in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies, strong export and infrastructure indicators, and early disbursement of funds for "trade-in" programs [1] - Economic data is anticipated to rebound, contributing to a positive economic outlook for the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The bond market shows a trend where commercial banks are increasing their holdings in interest rate bonds, while credit cooperatives are reducing their positions [2] - The economic characteristics of 2025 indicate a "high before low" pattern, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [3] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a larger decline [3] - The current liquidity in the bond market is relatively loose, and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - As of January 18, 2026, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 45.3% [4] - In major cities, Beijing saw 1,398 units sold (-25%), Shanghai 3,534 units (-35%), and Shenzhen 765 units (-75%) [4] - The second-hand housing market also experienced a decline, with a total of 44,000 units sold across 10 cities, down 17.8% year-on-year [4] - In Beijing, 7,033 second-hand homes were sold (-23%), in Shanghai 12,849 units (-8%), and in Shenzhen 2,844 units (-25%) [4]

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, achieving a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [2] - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, indicating a gradual decline in growth momentum [2] Factors Supporting Economic Stability - Three main factors supported the stable operation of the economy: improvement in industrial production, multi-faceted consumer growth, and better-than-expected export performance [3] - Industrial production saw a significant recovery in high-tech industries, contributing to a positive outlook for Q1 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Despite a 3.8% decline in overall fixed asset investment, equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by 200 billion yuan in special long-term bonds [4] - The focus on equipment renewal investment indicates a shift towards modernization and efficiency in industrial sectors [4] Consumer Market Outlook - Anticipation for a strong consumer market in Q1 2026 is bolstered by early allocation of 625 billion yuan for "old-for-new" initiatives and various fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5] - The real estate sector is expected to face short-term adjustments, with a projected narrowing of investment declines as high base effects dissipate [5] Policy and Future Projections - The December economic work conference emphasized stabilizing investment as a key task for 2026, with a focus on project reserves and sufficient funding [6] - A GDP growth target of around 5% is deemed necessary for the upcoming years, aligning with long-term goals for economic development [6]

Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, GDP growth rate was 4.5%, meeting expectations and achieving an annual growth rate of 5.0%[3] - Q4 GDP growth rate increased slightly from 1.1% in Q3 to 1.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumption and investment contributed 2.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively[6] Consumption Trends - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and November's 1.3%[10] - The decline in retail sales growth was influenced by high base effects and diminishing returns from the "trade-in" policy[10] - December saw a significant drop in automotive consumption growth from -8.3% in November to -5.0%[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4%[4] - In December, manufacturing investment fell sharply to -9.4%, while real estate investment plummeted to -36.8%[20] - Equipment investment increased by 11.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade Performance - Export growth rate fell from 6.5% in Q3 to 3.8% in Q4, influenced by a high base from 2024[5] - December exports remained resilient, indicating potential strength in Q1 2026[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment dropped to -36.8% in December, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[30] - The sales volume of commercial housing showed signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in December compared to previous months[28] Infrastructure Investment - Both narrow and broad infrastructure investment saw increased declines, with broad infrastructure down 15.2% in December[25] - The decline in infrastructure investment is attributed to lower PPI and cautious spending amid local government debt issues[25] Future Outlook - Anticipated economic rebound in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies and strong indicators in exports and infrastructure[2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing investment to support economic recovery in 2026[26] Risks - Potential risks include significant downturns in the global economy and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[32]

Economic Indicators - As of January 18, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.96%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.84%, also up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is 49.83%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.66%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is 50.20%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in exports[6] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 18, 2026, is -0.79%, down 0.64 percentage points from last week, reflecting a structural "rate cut" aimed at supporting economic growth[11] - The People's Bank of China reported that the average interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans was approximately 3.1% in Q4 2025, indicating continued loose financing conditions[15] Industrial Production - The operating rate for full steel tires is 62.93%, up 4.91 percentage points from last week, while the half steel tire operating rate is 73.44%, up 7.55 percentage points[16] - The national high furnace operating rate is 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points from last week but up 1.66 percentage points year-on-year[16] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending January 11, 2026, is 29,818 units, down 9,196 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for the first 11 days of January at 328,000 units, a 32% decline from the previous year[24] - The textile price index recorded 105.72 points, a slight increase of 0.31 points from the previous week[25] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at ports from January 5 to January 11, 2026, is 26,275.1 million tons, reflecting a 3.06% increase week-on-week[37] - The SCFI index for container shipping is 1,574.12 points, down 73.27 points from the previous week, while the CCFI index is 1,209.85 points, up 14.96 points[42] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.00 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 5.52 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg[43]