Core Viewpoint - Texas manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement for the first time since January, driven by reduced trade tensions and increased production [1] Summary by Categories General Business Activity - The general business activity index for Texas manufacturing rose from -12.7 in June to 0.9 in July, indicating a slight expansion in economic activity [1] - This marks the first time the index has been above zero since January of this year, suggesting a shift from contraction to modest growth [1] Sub-Indices - The sub-index for general business activity jumped 20 points to 21.3, the highest level in over three years [1] - Labor market indicators have also shown positive trends, indicating increases in employment and working hours [1] Orders and Capacity - The new orders index remains negative but shows a slowing rate of decline [1] - Capacity utilization and shipment indices have risen to positive values, reflecting improved operational efficiency [1] Price Pressures - Although sales price growth has slowed, high input price pressures continue to persist, presenting mixed signals ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1]

Group 1 - The overall economic expansion is being hindered by concerning signs of weakness, particularly in exports and consumer-facing service provider activities [1]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Russia increased by 0.07% week-on-week for the week ending June 30, compared to a 0.04% increase for the week ending June 23 [1] - The CPI has risen by 3.76% year-to-date in 2025, up from a previous increase of 3.68% [1] - Retail sales in May grew by 1.8% year-on-year, while construction activity increased by 0.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The volume of goods dispatched decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in this sector [1] - The unemployment rate stands at 2.2%, reflecting a stable labor market [1] - Salaries in April increased by 4.6% year-on-year, suggesting wage growth in the economy [1] Group 3 - The economy expanded by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating positive economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows resilience with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, surpassing Bloomberg's median forecast of 135,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%, while labor force participation rose to 62.6% [1] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, which is weaker than economists' predictions, but the impact of tariffs has distorted data, leading to a significant increase in imports by 41% [2][3] Group 2 - The trade war has led companies to halt investment plans, potentially reducing new job opportunities and affecting consumer confidence [2] - The Trump administration's tariffs are expected to create inflationary pressures, making it crucial for bilateral negotiations to reach agreements quickly [2] - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q1, outperforming analyst expectations, but the trade war has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence in Europe [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize that the rate path depends on future economic conditions [4] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of rate cuts in May, with a greater chance of cuts in June and July [3][4] - The Fed is concerned about policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on prices, which may delay any rate adjustments until September [4]