Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Iran is facing numerous difficulties and expresses a desire to engage in negotiations, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations [1] Group 1 - Iran is currently experiencing significant challenges [1] - There is an indication that Iran wishes to negotiate [1] - The statement suggests that negotiations should have already taken place [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is currently reluctant to engage in negotiations with Iran [1] Group 1 - The U.S. administration's stance reflects a broader strategy regarding foreign relations and potential conflicts in the Middle East [1]

Core Viewpoint - The attack on Iran is perceived as an attempt to undermine negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran, potentially leading to disastrous regional war consequences [1] Group 1 - Senator Chris Murphy indicates that the conflict between Israel and Iran could be politically advantageous for Netanyahu but disastrous for other countries in the region [1] - Murphy argues that if Trump and Netanyahu had not pushed the U.S. to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, the country would not be close to acquiring nuclear weapons [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that multiple positive factors are resonating in the crude oil market, and it recommends holding long positions and positive spreads. The current trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Information Market Data - WTI July crude oil futures rose $3.17 per barrel, or 4.88%, to $68.15 per barrel; Brent August crude oil futures rose $2.90 per barrel, or 4.33%, to $69.77 per barrel; SC2507 crude oil futures rose 16.20 yuan per barrel, or 3.37%, to 497.40 yuan per barrel [2]. Inventory Data - EIA reported that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, a decline of 0.84%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.891 million barrels per day, a 0.53% increase from the same period last year. U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6 was - 3.644 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.304 million barrels. U.S. EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6 was - 403,000 barrels, compared with a previous value of 576,000 barrels [3]. - PAJ reported that Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 206,359 kiloliters in the week ending June 7 [3]. - As of the week ending June 9, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 17.341 million barrels, an increase of 1.725 million barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 76,000 barrels to 7.802 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 135,000 barrels to 787,000 barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.514 million barrels to 8.752 million barrels [6]. Production and Export Data - Russia's main offline refining capacity in July was increased by 21% from the previous plan to 3.2 million tons [3]. - From January to May this year, Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline increased by 48% year - on - year to 767,000 tons [3]. - Despite political tensions in Libya, its crude oil production in May slightly increased to 1.23 million barrels per day, a 12 - year high, and its crude oil exports in May reached a multi - year high of 1.26 million barrels per day [3]. Geopolitical and Negotiation Information - Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran nuclear deal. The possibility of the sixth round of U.S. - Iran negotiations scheduled for this weekend in Oman is decreasing [3]. - The EU Commission proposed an 18th round of sanctions against Russia, suggesting lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. Putin extended counter - measures against the price cap on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025 [3]. - There are signs of U.S. diplomatic withdrawals in multiple Middle Eastern countries, and Israel's military is on high alert, fearing an escalation of conflict with Iran. The UK warned that the intensifying tension in the Middle East may lead to an "escalation of military activities" [3][4]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander - in - Chief stated that they are ready with upgraded missiles for any combat [6]. - The U.S. military authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the Middle East due to increased tensions with Iran [6]. Other Information - The U.S. Energy Secretary expected to sign more liquefied natural gas export agreements and an increase in LNG supply to India [6]. - The World Bank warned that a further 10% increase in the average U.S. tariff could lead to a global trade standstill in the second half of 2025 [6]. - The Trump administration may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if its major trading partners show "good faith" in negotiations [6].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 金志伟 从业资格：F3010485 交易咨询资格：Z0011766 联系方式：010-56711811 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 纯碱期货主力 SA2509 合约，期货价格昨日窄幅震荡，结算价跌 1 点，跌幅 0.08%， | | | | | 增仓 48194 手，收于 1202，60 日线下方运行，区间震荡后向下突破走低，连续创 | | | | | 新低，加速下行，最低价来到我们给出的支撑区间后，震荡反弹伴随减仓，昨日继 | | | | | 续窄幅震荡收阴十字星，连续多日窄幅区间震荡波动且昨日伴随增仓，关注短线方 | | | | | 向选择突破机会；夜盘向下走低，收小阴，收于 1189； | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 特朗普关税政策反复，存不确定性； | | | | | 中东紧张局势 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple chemical commodities, including their mid - term and short - term market outlooks, fundamental factors, and daily technical analysis, with most commodities showing a bearish or cautious outlook in the medium term [1][4][8][11][16][17][20][22][26][27][30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: In the medium term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases, but in the short term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warmer macro - environment have led to stronger prices. The mid - term fundamental pressure remains high [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The price has reached the upper pressure level, and the short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [3]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increase expectations, and domestic supply will be more abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory is increasing, and supply is expected to remain high while demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is under test. The strategy is to focus on the short - selling opportunity after the 15 - minute cycle breaks the 7275 - 7400 oscillation range [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main production area starts harvesting. Terminal demand is weak, and the possibility of a squeeze on 20 - grade rubber has further dissipated. It is bearish in the medium term [8][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to wait for a new short - selling signal on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. In June and the second half of the year, there is a large production pressure on cracking units, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. Demand is also suppressed by tire inventory pressure. It is bearish in the medium term [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 11470 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and PX units are gradually restarting. The short - term supply - demand is strengthening, and there are many maintenance plans in July, with a strong expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are strong, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side units that were previously under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. The demand - side polyester profit is weak, and the operating rate has declined slightly but remains at 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4720 [19]. PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit startups in June, with a strong expectation of increased supply. Short - term cost fluctuations due to crude oil also need attention [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have led to a high operating rate, and there is a large increase in imports. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the medium - term pressure on the market is large [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2260. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [22]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years, and the fundamentals are bearish [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4850 [26]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened due to unexpected domestic unit maintenance and reduced imports. The short - term polyester demand is acceptable, and the inventory is decreasing, providing some short - term fundamental support. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 4295 [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance units in the short term, and the overall operating rate is low. However, there is large - scale unit startup pressure in June and the second half of the year, and the supply increase expectation is high. The medium - term outlook is bearish [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The short - term support is at 7050. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, due to the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, although OPEC has shown clear production - increase data, considering the bottom - support effect of shale oil and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the current risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - chasing, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies. For cross -品种 trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. Given the low basis at the same period, there is no safety margin for long - trading, so short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For rubber, after an oversold rebound, the price is oscillating. Short - long or neutral strategies with short - term operations are recommended. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, but beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation fails to materialize [13]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain oscillating in June as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there is no new capacity - commissioning plan [16]. - For polypropylene, due to planned capacity expansion in June and a seasonal decline in demand, the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June as the maintenance season ends, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - For PTA, with supply still in the maintenance season and moderate inventory pressure in the polyester and chemical fiber sector, PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals are still in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season ends [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.94%, to $65.38; Brent main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.48, or 0.72%, to $67.13; INE main - contract crude - oil futures rose 8.20 yuan, or 1.76%, to 474.3 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude - oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.27 million barrels to 204.55 million barrels, a 1.10% week - on - week decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 84.21 million barrels, a 0.78% decline; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 96.16 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; total refined - oil commercial inventory increased by 0.15 million barrels to 180.37 million barrels, a 0.09% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 2277 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 58 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and rebounded as previously - maintained plants resume operation, and is at a high level in the same period. Enterprise profits have continuously declined from a high level. Demand has slightly improved as the MTO device at the port has returned to a high - operation level, and traditional demand has generally rebounded this week. The port inventory has increased slowly, and the price has shown strength. Inland supply has increased while demand has weakened, and the price has declined, leading to an expanding price difference between the port and the inland area [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 1697 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 70 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 83 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains at a high level, and daily output continues to rise. Demand has decreased as the production of compound fertilizers for the summer season is ending, and the enterprise operation rate has rapidly declined. The pre - order volume of urea enterprises has continuously decreased. Under the situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, enterprise inventory has accumulated to a high level in the same period, and the basis has widened [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may contribute to rubber production reduction. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has deteriorated, demand is flat and in a seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production - reduction amplitude may be lower than expected [9]. - **Industry Data**: As of June 5, 2025, the operation rate of full - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.45%, 1.33 percentage points lower than last week but 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of tire factories is consumed slowly. The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.49%, 4.39 percentage points lower than last week and 6.75 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overseas new - order performance is poor. As of June 1, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 2.1% from the previous period. China's dark - rubber social inventory was 763,000 tons, a 3.4% week - on - week decline; light - rubber social inventory was 517,000 tons, a 0.1% decline. As of June 9, 2025, the natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao was 484,200 (- 1,500) tons [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 (+ 50) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,685 (+ 5) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,675 (+ 5) US dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,450 (- 100) yuan; North China cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 (0) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4,816 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 79 (- 4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall operation rate of PVC has increased. The downstream operation rate has slightly increased. Factory inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased. Fundamentally, enterprise profit pressure has improved, the maintenance season has ended, and future production is expected to increase. There are expectations of multiple device commissions. The domestic operation rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. Export orders have weakened, and there is an expectation of weakening due to Indian policies and anti - dumping and BIS certification. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,150 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The new - capacity addition in June is small, and the supply - side pressure may be relieved. The inventory at the upper and middle reaches has decreased from a high level, which supports the price. It is a seasonal off - season, and the demand for agricultural films has decreased marginally, with the overall operation rate oscillating downward [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 6,932 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 188 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. Although the spot price has not changed, the decline is much smaller than that of PE. There is a planned capacity expansion of 2.2 million tons in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operation rate is expected to decline seasonally as the plastic - weaving orders have reached a phased peak [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 62 yuan to 6,494 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 US dollars to 808 US dollars. The basis was 198 yuan (- 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (- 42) [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX operation rate in China has increased to 87%, a 4.9% increase, and the Asian operation rate has increased to 75.1%, a 3.1% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants have restarted or adjusted their operation loads. The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. In May, South Korea's PX exports to China were 303,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87,000 tons. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The PXN is 240 US dollars (- 18), and the naphtha crack spread is 72 US dollars (- 7) [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 50 yuan to 4,602 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 65 yuan/ton to 4,830 yuan. The basis was 208 yuan (- 17), and the 9 - 1 spread was 110 yuan (- 26) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. Some plants have restarted, postponed restart, or carried out maintenance. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. As of May 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.208 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee has decreased by 11 yuan to 440 yuan, and the futures processing fee has decreased by 9 yuan to 342 yuan [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 5 yuan to 4,256 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,382 yuan. The basis was 115 (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 3 yuan (- 18) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The ethylene - glycol operation rate is 59.9%, unchanged from the previous period. Some domestic and overseas plants have carried out maintenance or restarted. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast is 108,000 tons, and the average daily departure from the East - China port from June 6 - 8 was 930 tons, with an increase in outbound volume. The port inventory is 634,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 461 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 1,218 yuan. The cost of ethylene has remained unchanged at 780 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines has decreased to 450 yuan [21].

美国总统特朗普：目前与伊朗进行大量的工作，他们是强硬的谈判代表。 ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 市场概况 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/12 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2927 | 2943 | 2913 | 2996 | -16 | 14 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 8.5 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 14.3 | -0.9 | -2.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 28950 | 28950 | 28950 | 44390 | 0 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3514 | 3525 | 3466 | 3518 | -11 | 48 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.8 | 7.1 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current negotiation between the US and Iran shows a sign of easing, which is expected to put pressure on oil prices. However, considering the current risk - return ratio, it is not suitable to short - sell, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For methanol, due to sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there is no obvious price trend. Given the low basis at the same period, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it is recommended to take a short - long or neutral approach with short - term operations. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, in the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile in June due to reduced new production capacity and inventory reduction [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned production capacity release and seasonal weakening of demand [19]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [21]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [22][23]. - For ethylene glycol, the port inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures rose $1.52, or 2.40%, to $64.77; Brent's main crude oil futures rose $1.36, or 2.08%, to $66.65; INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.52%, to 466.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 8.48 million barrels, a 5.66% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.13 million barrels to 14.96 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.47 million barrels to 6.83 million barrels, a 6.44% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.28 million barrels to 5.28 million barrels, a 5.58% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.05 million barrels to 6.63 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; the total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 42.19 million barrels, a 1.45% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 6, the 09 - contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 2264 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 48 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and is at a high level in the same period, with corporate profits falling. Demand has slightly improved, but the overall supply is still abundant, and there may be a further decline [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 6, the 09 - contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1720 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 100 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, while demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are in a volatile consolidation [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls expect production cuts due to weather and policies in Southeast Asia, while bears believe in weak demand and potential over - supply [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - long or neutral approach with short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 4790 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4700 (+ 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 90 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 75 (- 8) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Cost is stable, production is expected to increase, while downstream demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, the main - contract closed at 7066 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7135 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of 69 yuan/ton, weakening by 22 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: New production capacity in June is small, and inventory is being reduced. However, it is the seasonal off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain volatile [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, the main - contract closed at 6925 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 195 yuan/ton, weakening by 14 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There is a planned production capacity release in June, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 16 yuan to 6556 yuan, the PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 818 dollars, and the basis was 218 yuan (- 34), with a 9 - 1 spread of 180 yuan (- 2) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The maintenance season is ending, de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4652 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 4895 yuan, the basis was 225 yuan (+ 9), and the 9 - 1 spread was 136 yuan (- 2) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is still in the maintenance season, demand is stable, and it will continue to de - stock. The processing fee is supported, and it is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 22 yuan to 4261 yuan, the East China spot price fell 17 yuan to 4408 yuan, the basis was 123 (- 7), and the 9 - 1 spread was 21 yuan (- 10) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [24].