Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a potential AI bubble is intensifying, but Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that the current credit spreads for tech stocks indicate that the AI-driven rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][2] Group 1: Credit Spreads and AI Bubble - The credit spreads for tech stocks are at an 18-year low, suggesting that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies, contrasting with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios where credit risks rise sharply [2][3] - Hartnett asserts that a comprehensive collapse of the AI sector is unlikely due to the current credit market conditions [2] Group 2: Market Risks and Dollar Strength - The immediate risk for investors is not a bubble burst but rather an unexpected strengthening of the dollar, with a consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" being a significant vulnerability [1][4] - If the dollar index experiences a chaotic rebound and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could trigger a collective risk-averse response among investors [4] Group 3: Asset Performance and Market Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold has been the best-performing asset with a gain of 41.3%, while international stocks rose by 24.7%, and the dollar index fell by 9.2% [4] - Recent EPFR data shows a continued inflow of global funds into various assets, indicating that investors remain optimistic and are actively allocating to risk assets despite discussions of potential market corrections [3] Group 4: Gold's Position in Asset Management - Although gold is currently viewed as "overbought" from a tactical perspective, it remains a "low allocation" asset in both private and institutional asset management, with only 0.4% and 2.4% allocations respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached historical highs following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with London gold hitting $3,791.08 per ounce, reflecting a significant market reaction to monetary policy changes [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - London gold's current price is $3,757.12 per ounce as of September 25, with a daily increase of nearly 0.4% [1] - The recent price adjustment is primarily driven by a rebound in the US dollar, which rose approximately 0.65%, reaching a near two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - The commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is seen as a core driver for gold and silver prices, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year [1] - Technical correction pressure exists for precious metal prices after consecutive highs, and hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials could lead to increased short-term volatility if profit-taking occurs among bullish investors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].

Group 1 - Gold has recently reached approximately $3,700 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts are forecasting potential targets of $4,000 and even $5,000 for gold prices [2] - Historical trends indicate that gold is not immune to sharp downturns, raising concerns about a potential market crash [2][8] Group 2 - Historical instances of gold crashes include significant declines after peaks, such as a drop of nearly 65% from $850 in 1980 to below $300 by 1985 [3] - Another example is the decline of over 35% from nearly $1,920 in 2011 to approximately $1,200 by late 2013 [4] - During the pandemic, gold peaked at $2,070 in August 2020 but fell back below $1,700 by early 2021, representing an 18% drop [5] Group 3 - Current gold prices have incorporated an ideal scenario, but signs of potential trouble include a "hawkish cut" from the Fed, a stronger dollar, speculative overheating, and a potential pause in central bank purchases [7][9] - A 20-25% correction could bring gold prices down to $2,800-$3,000 per ounce, while a more severe 35-40% crash could test levels around $2,200-$2,400 per ounce [9]

Core Viewpoint - The interest in gold remains strong amid rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, supported by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, concerns over the Fed's independence, and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have continued to rise for six consecutive days, reaching a historic high and surpassing the psychological barrier of $3,500 per ounce [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month is a key factor driving funds towards non-yielding gold [1] - The uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions are additional factors supporting safe-haven gold [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The slight rebound of the U.S. dollar has had minimal impact on the upward momentum of gold prices [1] - Short-term charts indicate an extremely overbought condition, suggesting that gold bulls should exercise caution before further positioning for an increase [1] - Upcoming releases of significant U.S. macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payroll report, may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to attempt to stay above $3,370 [1] - Despite a rebound in the US dollar, gold prices have still increased [4] - If gold maintains above $3,360, it is expected to move towards the August high of around $3,400 [4] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices have declined due to profit-taking after a strong rebound from recent lows [7] - If silver can close above $39.00, it will aim for resistance levels of $39.80 to $40.00 [7] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum failed to break through the strong resistance level of $1,345 to $1,350 and has retreated to the $1,330 level [9] - A drop below $1,330 will push platinum towards support levels of $1,300 to $1,305 [9]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to attempt to stay above $3,370 [1] - Despite a rebound in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, gold prices have still increased [4] - If gold prices maintain above $3,360, they are expected to move towards the August high of around $3,400 [4] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices have retreated due to profit-taking after a strong rebound from recent lows [1][7] - If silver can close above $39.00, it will aim for resistance levels of $39.80 to $40.00 [7] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum failed to break through the strong resistance level of $1,345 to $1,350 and has fallen to the $1,330 level [1][9] - A drop below $1,330 will push platinum towards support levels of $1,300 to $1,305 [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have risen to a near two-week high of $3,385, driven by concerns over potential U.S. government intervention in the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September [1] - The market currently anticipates an 84.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, a significant increase from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with key resistance levels at $3,400–$3,410, and potential upward targets at $3,439 and $3,500 if these levels are breached [3] Group 2 - Initial support for gold is at $3,325, with further potential declines to $3,285 and $3,270 if this level is broken [3] - The rise in gold prices reflects market reactions to policy uncertainty and interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility expected ahead of global economic data releases [3] - The performance of upcoming economic data could influence gold prices, with stronger data potentially limiting gold's gains due to a rebound in the dollar [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in the US dollar index is driven by higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [1][3] - The market sentiment is currently mixed, with traders initially expecting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but the unexpected rise in PPI has raised concerns about inflation and the pace of future rate cuts [3][4] - Divergent statements from Federal Reserve officials reflect internal disagreements regarding monetary policy, contributing to short-term volatility in the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - The dollar's strength is observed across major currency pairs, with the euro and pound both declining against the dollar, while the dollar also gained against the yen despite earlier fluctuations [3] - Analysts caution against interpreting the dollar's rebound as a signal of a long-term uptrend, emphasizing that the rise is more a result of data shocks and position adjustments rather than a consensus on Fed policy [4] - Future macroeconomic signals, including employment data and core PCE price index, will be critical for investors in determining the dollar's trajectory, highlighting the importance of managing volatility rather than betting on a one-sided market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown resilience recently, with a 3.4% increase in July, ending a streak of declines, despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.7% in July, breaking a six-month downward trend [1] - Emerging market currencies, represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, fell by 1.2% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated approximately 9.5% this year, leading Asian currencies, while the South Korean won has risen nearly 6% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The rebound of the dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months [1] - Barclays Bank has advised clients to avoid shorting the dollar against other Asian currencies [1] - Fidelity International noted that prolonged high US interest rates reduce the attractiveness of borrowing dollars for arbitrage trading [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Currency Dynamics - The volatility of emerging market currencies is at its lowest in a year, which diminishes demand for Asian currencies in favor of higher-yielding European and Latin American currencies [2] - The average interest rate differential for Asian currencies is negative 1.1%, indicating higher holding costs compared to potential returns from holding dollars [5] - Latin American currencies have a positive interest rate differential of 3.7%, while European and African currencies have a positive differential of 1.1% [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to impact the attractiveness of emerging market currencies, despite some agreements reached with major trading partners [6] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor influencing the dollar's trajectory [6]