（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月29日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.26%报97.94，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元涨0.24%报 1.1728，英镑兑美元涨0.24%报1.3432，澳元兑美元涨0.46%报0.6577，美元兑日元跌0.60%报148.6100， 美元兑加元跌0.22%报1.3913，美元兑瑞郎跌0.07%报0.7977。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate are primarily influenced by the rebound of the US dollar index, with a general trend of "first suppressed, then rising" observed in the RMB exchange rate this year, indicating a stable long-term outlook despite short-term volatility [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - On September 29, the RMB/USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB experienced slight depreciation in the third week of September, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.1219 on September 24, down 86 points from the previous day [2]. - The dollar index saw a significant rise, reaching a two-week high of 98.6044, contributing to the RMB's depreciation [2]. Influencing Factors - The depreciation of the RMB is attributed to the strong performance of the US dollar, driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on inflation and employment risks, which have tempered market expectations for aggressive rate cuts [2][3]. - Seasonal demand for foreign exchange, particularly for cross-border payments and personal expenses related to studying and traveling abroad, has increased the demand for USD [3]. - The RMB's strength is supported by China's economic recovery and improved prospects for technological innovation, alongside a reduction in trade tensions with the US [4][5]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the short-term fluctuations in the RMB will not alter its long-term stability at a reasonable equilibrium level, despite the presence of both positive and negative factors affecting the exchange rate [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance market resilience and stabilize expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [5].

2025.09. 29 本文字数：1755，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 9月29日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1089，较前一交易日调升63个基点。上一交易日，人民币对美 元中间价报7.1152。 近期，人民币汇率呈现短期窄幅波动特征，市场对近一个月人民币的变化格外关注。以离岸人民币为 例，9月一度升值触及7.08附近，上周又一度跌破7.14。 综合市场分析来看，人民币汇率近期波动背后，最直接的原因是受美元指数阶段性反弹带动。今年以 来，人民币汇率整体"先抑后扬"，内外利好支撑中长期稳健。展望未来，短期波动不会改变人民币 在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的中长期格局，但当前影响人民币汇率涨跌的因素同时存在。 人民币汇率窄幅波动 9月第三周，人民币汇率呈现小幅贬值态势，整体波动收窄。 数据显示，9月24日，在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.1219，较上一交易日降86点，后续几个交易日维 持窄幅波动。 在市场分析看来，人民币汇率贬值直接原因是美元指数的阶段性反弹。9月24日、25日，美元指数 连续两天大涨，突破98整数位，最高冲至98.6044，其中，9月24日收盘97.8635，上涨63点，创 两周新高。26 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 今年以来黄金已经37次创下历史新高，首次站上3800美元/盎司，累计涨幅达到45%。这个涨幅不仅 跑赢今年所有其他主要资产类别的表现，而且也创下了自1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。马上就要到十一长假，黄金也将迎来消 费旺季，多家珠宝品牌店，上调"一口价"商品价格。 | 多股同列 分别K线同列 选股 = 公式 换肤▼ 恢复配置▼ 副屏 微软雅黑▼ = 小三 ▼ + 然敲 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分时 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 图 月 季 年 多周期 设置 画线 | 加自选 十一 ■ | | 伦敦金 AUUSDO | | | 伦敦会 龄纸:3817.108 3819,810 | 1.82% | 358 | 3817.290 | | | 3816.817 | 1.54% | | | | | 3813,718 | 1.46% | 买入 | 3817.108 | | | 3810,725 | 1.38% | | | | | 3807,625 | 1.30% | 最新 | 3817.108 开盘 | 3758.78 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回升，通胀预期回落。离岸美元 流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 上周两融净买入 264.79 亿元，行业上，两融主要净买入电子、通信、电新等板块，净卖出有色、医药、非银等板块。 其中，房地产、通信、传媒等板块融资买入占比环比上升。风格上，两融继续净买入大盘/中盘/小盘成长、小盘价值。 龙虎榜交易热度继续回落 上周龙虎榜买卖总额、龙虎榜买卖总额占全 A 成交额之比均继续回落。行业层面，纺服、电力及公用事业、电子等板 块龙虎榜买卖总额占比相对较高且仍在上升。 主动偏股基金仓位有所回落，ETF 被整体净申购 市场交易热度有所回落，除深证 100 外，其余主要指数波动率同样回落。行业上，电子、汽车、消费者服务、房地产、 纺服、通信等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，通信板块的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、通信、有色、食品饮料等板块调研热度居前，机械、交运、银行、消费者服务等板块的调研热度环比仍 在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the dynamics of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the resilience of the Chinese economy under tariff pressures [1][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB has shown a pattern of narrow fluctuations, with the offshore RMB reaching around 7.08 in early September before dropping below 7.14 the following week [1]. - The recent depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [2]. Internal and External Factors - The "strong dollar, weak RMB" trend is a result of multiple converging factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for foreign currency [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation and employment risks have tempered market expectations for significant rate cuts, providing temporary support for the dollar [2][3]. Economic Recovery and Trade Relations - The RMB's overall trend this year has been one of appreciation, driven by both internal recovery and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the long-term stability of the RMB [4][5]. - Positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to a more stable outlook for the RMB, as the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the currency's stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ◆ 其他影响因素： 截至9月21日当周，波罗的海干散货指数（BDI）录得2266.00点，较上周上升79点（+2.9%），其相关 分项灵便型海运指数BHSI录得832点，较上周+2.1%；上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）录得1114.52点， 较上周-7.0%。 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 增加 10 元/方，江苏市场 报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 0。山 ...

Core Viewpoint - The advantages of gold as a credit asset are becoming increasingly prominent against the backdrop of excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce, raising concerns about its future trajectory [1] Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Monetary Attributes - Historically, gold has served as a crucial support for currency circulation, providing stability and credibility to the monetary system, but its monetary attributes are gradually weakening [4][2] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to a fiat currency system has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [2] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the liberation of gold prices from fixed exchange rates, leading to a floating exchange rate system and an era of credit currency [2] Group 2: Changes in Gold's Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold's investment demand has shown strong growth, increasing from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs transitioning from negative to positive contributions [4][6] - The demand for gold jewelry and technology applications has also been significant, with gold consumption in jewelry manufacturing decreasing from 2,247 tons in 2021 to 2,012 tons in 2024, while technological demand remains stable [6] - The supply of gold has not kept pace with demand, with total demand rising from 4,026 tons in 2021 to 4,606 tons in 2024, while gold mine production only increased from 3,573 tons to 3,673 tons during the same period [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with military conflicts leading to inflationary pressures that typically drive up gold prices [11] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices has been evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices rose by 23.9% during the same period [8][10] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been increasing their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The future trajectory of gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [20][21] - If geopolitical tensions ease and U.S. debt issues are managed, gold prices may stabilize or face downward pressure, as current prices are significantly above production costs [21] - Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts intensify and U.S. debt issues worsen, gold's safe-haven attributes may become more pronounced, leading to further price increases [21]

1美元兑换149.44日元，低于前一交易日的149.89日元；1美元兑换0.7975瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8004瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3937加元，低于前一交易日的1.3943加元；1美元兑换9.4041瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4766瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.41%，在汇市尾市收于98.152。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1704美元，高于前一交易日的1.1653美元；1英镑兑换1.3410美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3335美元。 新华财经纽约9月26日电美元指数26日下跌。 ...