来源：金老虎首席分析师 金老虎：美元劲升压金价，降息疑云绕九月，俄美谈罢避险淡 交易的进阶始于对侥幸的剥离，严守规则比侥幸获利更显底气。K 线图谱从不缺波动，缺的是在无序 走势中恪守纪律的坚韧，唯有扛住诱惑考验，才能握住盈利主线，而交易的本质，正是锤炼风险控制力 而非盲目性的投机。 黄金行情分析 简单回顾下昨天的行情，昨天金价走的也是非常简单，早间弱势下跌到3326后形成拉升反弹，欧盘阶段 最高也是反弹到3345的位置 ，随后形成阶梯式下跌，美盘阶段最低价格也是跌到了3315区间的位置， 金价昨天走出这样的弱势形态主要原因是什么，简单进行梳理下： 一、美联储政策预期主导市场情绪 美俄首脑于 8 月 15 日在阿拉斯加举行峰会，尽管未达成实质性协议，但市场对地缘冲突升级的担忧有 所缓解。特朗普在会后推动俄乌直接谈判，并表示 "不认为需停火才谈"，这种外交进展降低了黄金的 避险需求。此外，市场对中东局势的关注度下降，叠加原油价格因欧佩克 + 增产预期持续疲软（8 月上 半月累跌 8%），进一步削弱了黄金作为 "危机对冲工具" 的吸引力。 四、经济数据的矛盾性强化谨慎情绪 尽管 7 月非农就业数据疲软（新增 7.3 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 周二纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.11%，报98.280点，全天呈现出V形反转，整体交投区间为98.317- 97.940点，北京时间18:27刷新日低。彭博美元指数涨0.15%，报1207.04点，日内交投区间为1203.70- 1207.34点。 ...

人民币汇率分析框架与跨境资本流动 20250819 摘要 人民币汇率受价值、供求、预期和制度四大因素影响，包括中美经济基 本面、跨境资本流动及政策干预等，模型分析预测下半年人民币汇率或 呈现先升后贬、整体双向波动格局。 中美两国经济节奏预计趋同，均经历先缓后稳阶段，短期内经济基本面 差异对人民币汇率影响减弱，但美国制造业回流或提振其经济。 美国通胀预计上行，下半年 CPI 可能突破 3%，甚至达到 3.5%左右，而 中国通胀短期内上行不明显，中美通胀差距扩大或对人民币汇率产生贬 值压力。 中国出口与人民币汇率高度相关，若中美关税谈判达成一致，抢售效应 减弱，出口可能放缓，从而对人民币汇率造成贬值压力。 美债利率中枢预计抬升至 4.5%-5.0%，中债利率波动幅度预计小于美 债，美中利差扩大将对人民币形成贬值压力。 美元指数上涨通过定价机制间接影响人民币，使其面临贬值压力，但中 国可能采取外汇降准等措施稳定汇率。 跨境资本流动正经历结构性变化，从 FDI 转向短期证券和信贷，美国资 本吸引力下降，新兴市场吸引力上升，稳定币发展重塑跨境投资，值得 关注。 Q&A 2025 年以来人民币汇率经历了哪些阶段性变化？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high. Under the influence of internal and external positive factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short-term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward movement. The market risk appetite is still high, and the gold price may be disturbed in the short term, but the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still high, providing support for the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, but will be mainly based on fundamental logic in the medium term. The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September boosts the copper price, while the domestic copper downstream demand is weak, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly. The recent decline in the US dollar index, but the pressure on the downstream demand of aluminum, leads to the weak operation of the aluminum price. The production and inventory of alumina both increase, with a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea reduces the bauxite shipment volume, and considering the anti-involution market may continue, attention can be paid to the opportunity of laying out long positions in the far month. The zinc price is under great pressure due to the increase in inventory and the recovery of supply. Considering the potential risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, short selling should be cautious, and the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions can still be continuously concerned before the peak season. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remains stable, and the demand side performs generally. The nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading and wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions. In the long term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The price of raw material nickel iron rises steadily, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and steel mills resume production one after another after profit repair. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of steel mills. The stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, dominated by the macro situation. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading, wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between futures and spot. Fundamentally, tin is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. After a full correction, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price. The supply of industrial silicon in the southwest and northwest regions resumes, with great hedging pressure and strong market sentiment. The polysilicon has an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits. The resource end of scrap steel is frequently disturbed, and the short-term replenishment volume of the downstream is large, with limited subsequent replenishment space. The cost of electric furnace valley electricity provides a short-term support range for rebar, and the upward driving force follows coal. The upward driving force of hot-rolled coil follows the cost support anchored by coal, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The near-month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity in the far month. The anti-involution in ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is long-term, and in the short term, it is mainly affected by macro positives, with prices showing a strong trend. The glass still has a weak reality but strong expectations, with a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The soda ash still has a weak reality, affected by supply disturbances and macro positives, also showing a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The high-level meeting mentioned "anti-involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the supply-side reform in 2015. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short term at the trading level, short positions on the market should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. The logic of coke is the same as that of coking coal, and the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium should be mainly grasped. The MPOB report is less bearish than expected, and the production in August may be affected by heavy rainfall, with a short-term positive expectation difference. Indonesia's official announcement of implementing B50 next year brings a long-term "strong expectation" for palm oil. The expected reduction in soybean arrivals, the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, and the opening of the export trade flow bring the expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, leading to a revaluation of soybean oil. The USDA's reduction of the new crop area in August and the Sino-US trade relationship lead to the firmness of the CBOT soybean price and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybean exports, supporting the upward movement of soybean oil from the raw material cost side. The reduction in the production of rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine and the less-than-expected increase in the production of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price of rapeseed oil in the new crushing season. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary ruling that Canadian rapeseed is dumped will increase the customs duty deposit from August 14, bringing the expectation of a significant reduction in subsequent rapeseed supply. Cotton increases in positions and rises in the short term, dominated by the logic of a short squeeze in the near month. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of the sliding duty quota. White sugar runs strongly, with the bottom divergence rebound of raw sugar and the peak season demand, but the height is limited, and attention should be paid to the range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000. The supply and demand of old crops tend to be tight, but the pressure of warehouse receipts is large, and the expected rebound space of C09 is limited. Considering the expected selling pressure of new-season corn during the autumn harvest and the reduction in planting cost, a bearish view is maintained for the C11 and C01 contracts. The supply and demand balance sheet of new-season US soybeans is tight. Under the current Sino-US trade policy, the expectation of the Brazilian premium remains firm. Under the expectation of an increase in import cost, MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, but currently, the pressure on the domestic spot is still large, and the low basis restricts the increase of the futures price in the short term. Overall, the idea of buying on dips should be adopted. The external quotation of pulp is raised, with the price of Brazilian pulp increasing by $20 per ton in August, and the domestic inventory shows a reduction; but the recent decline in commodity futures is expected to lead to a volatile operation. The fundamentals of the log spot have improved recently, mainly reflected in the increase in the external quotation and the reduction of domestic port inventory; however, the delivery pressure in Chongqing restricts the motivation of log bulls to take delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate between 810 - 840 yuan/m³. The near-month contract of live pigs is dragged down by the spot and is relatively weak. The inventory will gradually recover in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the weight reduction and consumption situation. There are peak season expectations for the 11 and 01 contracts. The meeting between the US and Russia has not reached an agreement yet, but the progress is good; OPEC+ continues to increase production; the peak consumption season in Europe and the US has reached its peak, and there is a weakening trend later. The short-term supply and demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent, following crude oil; the cost disturbance and the recovery of demand balance each other, with limited fluctuations. The rainfall in the domestic rubber-producing areas causes disturbances, and the raw material cost provides strong support; the inventory reduction speed is slow; and the state reserve conducts a large amount of dumping. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the fundamental situation of synthetic rubber is severe, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand; BR runs stably in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance situation of butadiene rubber plants. The supply of PTA has shrunk, and the crude oil price has slightly declined. The downstream load of polyester has decreased to 88%. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased. The overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, the supply side has shrunk, and the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed, and there is no independent market in the market currently. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The supply of short fiber has shrunk, and the downstream load of polyester has decreased. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased, and the overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, and the supply side has shrunk. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of crude oil is abundant, and the synthetic rubber market is severe, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid needs. PTA supply contracts, crude oil prices fall slightly, polyester downstream load drops to 88%, PTA port inventory decreases slightly, and polyester replenishment willingness is low. Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment weakens, overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance is postponed, and supply contracts. Short - fiber warehouse receipt registration is low, factory maintenance increases, and with a high basis, cost follows closely and there is no independent market. Pure benzene prices fall slightly, styrene shipments are active, crude oil prices weaken, styrene plant load recovers, and the basis weakens significantly. Urea export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient with limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support below. Macro sentiment is warm, there are many maintenance operations, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and prices fluctuate weakly. Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, macro is warm, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Macro sentiment is warm, maintenance decreases, downstream enters the off - season, supply pressure increases, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Spot is about to enter the peak season, spot prices are low, coking coal prices rise again, and macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of LPG is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand has a repair expectation; the warehouse receipts have reached a new high, and attention should be paid to the main contract delivery and the spread between September and October. The signal of the peak of the freight rate of the European container shipping line appears; the European ports are still congested; and there are many additional ships in August. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index futures may continue to run strongly due to abundant market liquidity and positive factors [1] - Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are reminded [1] - Gold price may be disturbed in the short term but has support from the expected interest rate cut in September [1] - Silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term and follow fundamental logic in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price may fluctuate strongly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and weak domestic downstream demand [1] - Aluminum price runs weakly due to the pressure on downstream demand [1] - Alumina has a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea and the anti - involution market bring opportunities for long positions in the far month [1] - Zinc price is under pressure from inventory increase and supply recovery, and short - selling should be cautious [1] - Nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] - Tin provides an opportunity of going long at a low price after a full correction [1] Black Metals - Rebar is supported by the cost of electric furnace valley electricity, and the upward driving force follows coal [1] - Hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward driving force follows coal - anchored cost support [1] - Iron ore has an upward opportunity in the far month, although the near - month is restricted by production cuts [1] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be strong due to long - term anti - involution and short - term macro positives [1] - Glass and soda ash show a pattern of near weakness and far strength [1] - Coke and coking coal: attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil has a short - term positive expectation difference and a long - term "strong expectation" [1] - Soybean oil is re - valued due to the expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and cost support [1] - Rapeseed oil is supported by production reduction and supply reduction expectations [1] - Cotton is affected by the short - squeeze logic in the near month, and attention should be paid to the time window and quota release [1] - White sugar runs strongly but with limited height [1] - Corn: C09 has limited rebound space, and C11 and C01 are bearish [1] - Soybean: MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and a dip - buying strategy is recommended [1] - Pulp is expected to fluctuate due to price increase and inventory reduction [1] - Log is expected to fluctuate within a certain range due to improved fundamentals and delivery pressure [1] - Live pigs' near - month contracts are weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and its related products (fuel oil, LPG) are affected by OPEC+ production increase and market demand trends [1] - Rubber (natural rubber, BR rubber) is affected by factors such as rainfall, inventory, and supply - demand fundamentals [1] - PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Urea has limited upward space due to export and demand, but has support below [1] Other - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may peak, with congested ports and additional ships [1]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3335.50 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 37.73 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1335.00 with a change of -18.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1126.00 with a change of -14.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 62.80 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9757.00 with a change of -7.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 97.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 147.16 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15786.61 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 1138.43 with a change of -3.13 [1] - The latest gold ETF holding is 965.37 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest silver ETF holding is 15071.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver inventory is 1368.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1]

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，8月18日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.31%报98.16，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.36%报 1.1662，英镑兑美元跌0.39%报1.3503，澳元兑美元跌0.25%报0.6492，美元兑日元涨0.47%报147.8600， 美元兑加元跌0.11%报1.3803，美元兑瑞郎涨0.08%报0.8075。 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 周一纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.31%，报98.151点，日内交投区间为97.871-98.186点，全天持续震荡上 行，北京时间16:00之前出现一波相对显著的上涨行情。彭博美元指数涨0.19%，报1205.17点，日内交 投区间为1201.93-1206.08点。 ...

本报记者 刘琪 银河证券研报认为，《报告》再次释放维护汇率市场基本稳定的政策信号，有助于引导市场预期，对可能面临的全球金融 市场不确定性再次上升的冲击作出前瞻性应对。 展望后期，温彬预计，人民币汇率将维持双向波动格局，稳汇率重要性仍在。下半年，国内稳增长政策继续对人民币形成 支撑，同时市场预计美联储9月份降息概率较高，中美利差收窄也有助于人民币稳汇率。但也应注意的是，全球地缘冲突风险 仍存，或对汇率形成阶段性扰动。在此背景下，央行将继续加强外汇市场管理，通过"三个坚决"有效引导市场预期；同时，央 行稳汇率政策工具箱充足，如逆周期因子、离岸央票等，预计人民币汇率将保持在合理均衡水平的基本稳定。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，后续美元指数的变化以及国内政策或成为人民币汇率的重要影响因素。若美联储如期降 息，美元指数或因此走弱，对于我国证券账户的资本流入有望形成一定利好。央行稳汇率政策张弛有度，将为人民币汇率的韧 性提供有力支撑。 今年以来，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升。Wind资讯数据显示，截至8月18日16时30分，在岸人民币对美元汇率收盘报 7.1792，年内涨幅1.64%；离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.182，年内 ...

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of August 15, the gold ETF holdings increased by 4.01 tons to a total of 965.37 tons [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,335.69 per ounce on August 15, with a daily increase of 0.91%, reaching a high of $3,348.74 and a low of $3,331.63 during the day [1] Group 2 - Current spot gold is trading around $3,344.16 per ounce, showing an increase of approximately 0.25%, after previously dropping to the lowest level since August 1 at $3,323.43 [3] - December futures for U.S. gold rose by 0.18% to $3,389.10, supported by a weak U.S. dollar index [3] - Geopolitical risks, including potential territorial exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine peace proposal and uncertainty from the U.S. canceling trade talks with India, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]

均线系统：20周期均线(97.5513)与50周期均线(97.7919)形成收敛，30EMA上穿50EMA的金叉信号显示 短期多头占优，但价格始终未能有效突破50周期均线压制，表明97.80一线存在较强抛压。动量指标： RSI指标报71.91，已进入传统超买区间(>70)，且出现价格与RSI的"顶背离"雏形——价格创日内新高 时，RSI未能同步突破前期高点。 野村的经济学家在一份报告中写道，美联储可能会在9月的会议上降息25个基点，随后在12月和次年3月 再各降一次。尽管分析师的中位数预期是未来三个月内降息25个基点，但经济学家们在降息时机上存在 分歧。野村此前是那些预计美联储官员要到今年晚些时候才会放宽政策的机构之一。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.86，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为97.80。野村的经济学家目 前预测，由于劳动力市场疲软且通胀风险降低，美联储将在9月开始降息。 ...