美元走弱，黄金是涨是跌？人民币能否升值？ 最近关注理财的朋友肯定发现了一个明显变化：美元好像"不香了"——美元指数从之前的高位慢慢往下滑，银行里换美元的人少了，反而不少人开始打听黄 金和人民币的行情。毕竟对咱普通人来说，美元强弱可不只是个国际金融名词，它直接关系到手里的黄金首饰值不值钱、出国旅游换汇划算不划算，甚至买 的海外基金收益高不高。 这波美元走弱不是偶然，核心原因是美联储在2024年接连降息：9月一下子降了50个基点，11月又跟着降了25个基点，把基准利率拉到了4.5%-4.75%的区 间，会议纪要里还提到要是经济数据符合预期，可能还会继续降 。美元一松劲，大家最关心的两个问题就来了：被称为"硬通货"的黄金会不会趁机涨价？ 咱们手里的人民币能跟着走强吗？今天就用官方数据和政策说话，把这俩问题讲明白。 黄金和美元天生是"冤家"——黄金是以美元计价的，美元便宜了，买同样重量的黄金花的钱变少，全球对黄金的需求就会上升，价格自然跟着涨。这一点从 最新价格就能看出来：2025年10月的纽约金价格已经涨到3912.1美元/盎司，较前一日涨了1.14%；国内的沪金也涨到874.4元/克，涨幅1.48%。要是把时间线 ...

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容。 文|昕昕 前言 最近白银价格真的是一路狂飙，突破46.64美元，创下14年来的最高点！ 为啥白银这么强势？ 白银为啥一路狂飙 首先得感谢美国的通胀数据：8月PCE物价指数同比上涨2.7%，核心PCE同比上涨2.9%，和预期一致， 市场心里其实挺有底。 通胀数据温和，大家都松了口气，纷纷猜测美联储会不会在年内降息。 你想嘛，降息就意味着白银这种避险资产更有吸引力，买买买，价格自然就上去了！ 然后再来一波不确定性的加持，美国政府也可能因为拨款法案没通过，出现部分关门的风险。你说这不 是给了白银一个绝佳的避险机会吗？一场"政府关门"危机，你敢赌美国政府不关门，市场都不敢站稳脚 跟，所以投资者们直接用白银来保命，顺便赚点儿"关门"溢价。 总统特朗普现在正在与国会领导人讨论如何解决政府资金问题，若谈不拢，10月1号政府可能会停摆。 各位想象一下：连政府都可能关门了，股市的投资者肯定不敢轻易下注，于是白银这种避险资产就大放 异彩，吸引了大批人抄底。 就是那种"先到先得"的感觉，你迟到就没份儿了。 再看美元，美元指数（DXY ...

瑞银：黄金市场目前倾向于看涨情景，预计到2026年6月底金价将升至4200美元/盎司（预期上调300美元）。美元走弱、央行大举购买黄金以及ETF投资增加等因素对金价构成利好，同时建议黄金在投资组合中的配置比例为5%左右。瑞银强调，黄金与股票和债券的关联度较低，可作为对冲通胀和地缘政治风险的工具，同时提醒投资者考虑与价格波动和美国货币政策可能转变相关的风险。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):瑞银将2025年底黄金目标价格上调300美元至3800美元/盎司，并将2026年6月底目标价上调200美元至3900美元/盎司。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，湘财证券发布研报称，2025H1有色行业利润向上游集中，有色板块营收平稳但业 绩大幅增长，盈利能力持续提升，板块现金流改善明显。细分板块来看，2025上半年，铜板块利润增速 显著高于收入，贵金属板块营收及利润大幅增长，稀土板块盈利能力明显修复，钨板块盈利能力平稳抬 升铜板块。贵金属板块方面，在美联储降息预期升温及中长期降息周期下、美债压力加大导致美元走弱 趋势加强及央行储备多元化趋势驱动黄金储备中长期提升背景下，黄金价格有望长期看涨。 湘财证券主要观点如下： 贵金属及小金属板块业绩表现优异。行业层面来看，2025年上半年有色行业累计收入增速逐月收窄，但 上游矿采选业收入增幅仍较2024年有所提升。2025年上半年有色矿采选业营业利润增速明显高于冶炼及 加工业，利润向上游集中。上市公司层面来看，2025H1有色板块营收平稳增长，业绩大幅提升，有色 行业上市公司2025H1实现营业收入1.82万亿元，同比增长6.59%；实现归母净利润953.63亿元，同比增 长35.94%。 2025H1铜板块利润增长显著高于收入增长，但营收及利润增速边际均收窄。收入端来看，2025H1铜板 块实现营收923 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $3849 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [1] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with retail prices around 1100 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase of 400 yuan per gram since the beginning of the year [1] - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday is driving demand for gold jewelry, particularly among newlyweds, leading some consumers to purchase at high prices [1] Group 2 - The current market sentiment for gold is driven by both safe-haven demand and speculative funds, with investors facing a dilemma between "chasing highs" and "locking in profits" [2] - Gold prices have risen for six consecutive weeks, with expectations for continued strength due to factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Platinum and silver prices have also reached new highs, with silver prices surpassing $47 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 61.8%, while platinum prices have risen by 84% [2] Group 3 - High gold prices are leading to a shift in consumer preferences towards platinum and silver, with platinum sales now accounting for 18% of total sales in some stores, up from less than 5% last year [3] - The current price of platinum is significantly lower than gold, making it an attractive alternative for consumers [3] - There is a growing interest in platinum jewelry, although silver jewelry sales have not seen a significant recovery due to concerns over oxidation [3] Group 4 - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projects a 10% year-on-year increase in global platinum demand by Q1 2025, reaching 70.7 tons [4] - Industry experts believe that platinum prices do not fully reflect its strategic value in sectors like hydrogen economy and automotive catalysts, indicating a structural undervaluation [4] Group 5 - Analysts are optimistic about silver prices due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The silver market is more susceptible to volatility due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it easier for prices to fluctuate dramatically [5] - Consumers are advised to differentiate between purchasing precious metal jewelry and investment, as jewelry often incurs high labor costs and significant depreciation upon resale [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, leading to historical highs in both international and domestic gold prices [1][2][3] - The current gold price in Shanghai is approximately 1100 yuan per gram, which is about 400 yuan higher than at the beginning of the year, with a total increase of 12000 yuan for a 33-gram gold bracelet [1] - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday is expected to increase demand for gold jewelry, particularly among newlyweds, with some consumers opting to purchase at high prices while others bought earlier during price corrections [1][2] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have led to a substitution effect, with increased demand for platinum and silver as alternatives, as seen in jewelry sales where platinum and silver have gained popularity [3][4] - Platinum prices have surged, with current prices around 648 yuan per gram, significantly lower than gold, prompting consumers to consider platinum for wedding rings [3] - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in global platinum demand by Q1 2025, indicating a growing interest in platinum's strategic value in various industries [5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment is influenced by both safe-haven demand and speculative investments, with investors facing a dilemma between chasing high prices or securing profits [2] - The silver market is experiencing a notable increase in investment demand, with prices rising significantly, but it is also subject to higher volatility due to its smaller market size compared to gold [5] - Industry experts emphasize the distinction between purchasing precious metal jewelry and investing in precious metals, warning consumers about the high costs associated with jewelry and the potential for significant depreciation upon resale [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, leading to historical highs in both international and domestic gold prices [1][2][3] - The price of gold has increased by approximately 40% year-to-date, with domestic gold prices reaching around 1100 yuan per gram, which is about 400 yuan higher than at the beginning of the year [1][2] - The demand for gold jewelry remains strong, particularly during the wedding season, with some consumers opting to purchase at high prices while others took advantage of price dips earlier in the year [1][2] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have led to a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with increased interest in platinum and silver as alternative options due to their lower prices compared to gold [3][4] - Platinum prices have surged, with year-to-date increases of 84%, while silver has also seen significant gains, with a 61.8% rise, indicating a growing trend of consumers considering these metals for jewelry purchases [3][5] - The market for platinum and silver is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a 10% increase in global platinum demand by Q1 2025 [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present a dilemma for investors between "chasing high prices" and "locking in profits," especially with the upcoming long holiday and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [2][5] - Investment strategies are recommended to include gradual increases in gold allocations during market corrections, as the long-term outlook for gold remains positive [2][5] - The distinction between purchasing precious metal jewelry and investing in precious metals is emphasized, as jewelry often incurs high labor costs and significant depreciation upon resale [6]

9月29日，贵金属价格再度走强。 现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内涨超1%。今年以来累计上涨近45%。 现货白银价格盘中也突破47美元/盎司关键关口，年内累计涨幅超60%。 近期国际金价屡创历史新高，有"新债王"之称的冈拉克预测金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司4000美元。黄金表现亮眼，背后有多重因素交织影响。 首先，短期上，受到了近期美联储放松货币政策的推动，CME联邦利率期货显示，目前市场押注美联储今年还将分别在10月和12月再降息两次，每次25 个基点。其次，长期来看，在美国经济前景急剧变化的背景下，美元走弱持续利好黄金。 来源：市场资讯 今年衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数迄今为止已下跌超10%。专家指出，未来美元还可能继续走弱。周期上，美国相较新兴市场和其他地区的经济优 势正在减弱。 （来源：永康人） 来源：每日经济新闻、央视财经等 融媒编辑：华偎兑 校对：董碧冰 一审：应栩漪 二审：应芳蒙 终审：王贻江 高盛新兴市场股票策略师苏尼尔·库尔介绍："过去10年到15年，全球投资者在美国资产和美元上的配置过多，未来我们会看到更多投资者进行对冲和多元 化配置，转向非美国股市和资产，这将推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of spot gold and silver have surged to historical highs, with gold surpassing $3800 per ounce and silver exceeding $47 per ounce, driven by various market factors [1][4][15]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Prices - Spot gold reached a new high of $3806 per ounce, marking a 1.15% increase [1][4]. - Spot silver also saw significant gains, breaking the $47 per ounce mark, with a 2.15% rise [5][15]. - The A-share precious metals sector experienced a notable increase, with all stocks in the sector rising, culminating in a 2.49% gain [3][13]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year [15][16]. - The weakening of the US dollar, which has dropped over 10% against a basket of currencies, has further supported gold prices, which have risen over 40% this year [16]. - Global central banks' diversification of reserves is also contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [16]. Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $4000 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $4500 or even $5000 per ounce under certain conditions [15][16].

9月29日，贵金属价格再度走强。 现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内涨超1%。今年以来累计上涨近45%。 国内黄金股大涨。截至发稿，招金黄金涨超9%，山金国际涨近6%，紫金矿业涨超4%。 近期国际金价屡创历史新高，有"新债王"之称的冈拉克预测金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司4000美元。黄金表现亮眼，背后有多重因素交织影响。 首先，短期上，受到了近期美联储放松货币政策的推动，CME联邦利率期货显示，目前市场押注美联储今年还将分别在10月和12月再降息两次，每次25 个基点。其次，长期来看，在美国经济前景急剧变化的背景下，美元走弱持续利好黄金。 今年衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数迄今为止已下跌超10%。专家指出，未来美元还可能继续走弱。周期上，美国相较新兴市场和其他地区的经济优 势正在减弱。 高盛新兴市场股票策略师苏尼尔·库尔：过去10年到15年，全球投资者在美国资产和美元上的配置过多，未来我们会看到更多投资者进行对冲和多元化配 置，转向非美国股市和资产，这将推动美元在更长时间里继续走弱。 另外，全球央行多元化储备的需求也支撑了金价。目前，美元在全球央行储备中的占比已从2000年的60%降至了 ...