LME铜库存自6月底以来增加了70%以上，达到155,000吨，这对铜价构成了压力。 | | 8月12日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张紫幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,840.50 1 | +109.00 ↑ +1.12% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.619.50 1 | +31.50 ↑ +1.22% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,847.50 ↑ | +25.50 ↑ +0.90% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,015.50 1 | +17.50 ↑ +0.88% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,332.00 ↓ | -19.00 -0.12% | | 三个月期锡 | 33,886.00 ↑ | +81.00 ↑ +0.24% | 库存增加也缓解了对LME市场铜供应的担忧，并使LME现货铜较三个月期铜贴水扩大至每吨84美元， 为2月份以来最高。 8月12日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜升至逾两周高位，因贸易担忧有所缓和，且美国通胀 数据公布后美元走低，提振了市场的乐观情绪。 Benchmark Mineral In ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices remain strong, trading around $3,381, following a slight decline of 0.34% to $3,369.19 on August 6, after reaching a two-week high of $3,390 [1][3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have surged, with the probability increasing from 46.7% to 92% due to disappointing July employment data [3][5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly from U.S. tariffs on India and Switzerland, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with July job additions significantly below expectations and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about economic slowdown [3][4] - The ISM report indicates slowing service sector growth but increasing price pressures, which may limit the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to challenge the $3,400 level, with support seen around $3,360, indicating a potential upward trend [6][7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest entering long positions near $3,370 with a stop loss at $3,359 and targets set at $3,400 to $3,415 [6] - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with traders advised to monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches and initial jobless claims data for further direction [5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in gold and silver prices driven by market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following a disappointing U.S. employment report [1] - On December 4, 2025 gold futures rose by $12.6, closing at $3428.60 per ounce, marking a 0.37% increase [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.36% to 98.786, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - Citibank raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, citing ongoing inflation concerns and a weaker dollar as factors that will drive gold prices higher [1] - The expected trading range for gold was adjusted from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [1] - Silver futures for September delivery increased by 34 cents, closing at $37.445 per ounce, with a 0.92% rise [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent strengthening of the US dollar, it may face challenges due to potential dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a faster-than-expected rate cut [1][2] - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the recent weakness of the dollar may reflect market relief that the worst outcomes from trade negotiations are unlikely to occur, but attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are low, with no rate cuts priced in for July and only a 16 basis point cut anticipated for September [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence among FOMC members has narrowed, focusing primarily on the impact of tariffs, with some members advocating for ignoring temporary price increases while others, including Chairman Powell, suggest that the Fed could have been more accommodative without tariffs [2] - Economic data, particularly the upcoming employment report, is expected to become a focal point, with Standard Chartered warning that downside risks may outweigh consensus expectations [3] - The dollar is expected to weaken moderately over the next few months, but significant declines will depend more on actual shifts in Federal Reserve policy rather than further trade negotiation news [3]

智通财经APP获悉，截至7月22日，金属已成为2025年表现最佳的大宗商品子类，其中贵金属年内涨幅 达26.2%，工业金属上涨10.9%。然而，展望今年剩余时间，BMI研究机构对工业金属维持中性偏空的 展望，认为预期需求将走弱。 该机构近期维持2025年黄金均价3100美元/盎司的预测，并对未来几个月的金价持中性态度。 其认为，美联储在2025年末及2026年的降息声明，将是未来金价上涨的关键因素。 此外，BMI预计黄金将继续受益于各国央行增持行为，同时特朗普政府贸易政策变动的不确定性也将为 金价提供支撑底线。 中国市场金属消费在未来几个季度可能面临越来越大的阻力，这一方面来自美国关税政策的不确定性， 另一方面源于曾推动零售销售增长的消费品以旧换新政策效应逐渐减弱。 BMI分析师指出，从积极面来看，美元走弱可能在下半年为金属价格提供支撑。鉴于金属与美元存在反 向关联，这一因素将帮助金属价格维持稳定，遏制潜在跌幅。 至于贵金属，受避险需求、美元走弱以及美联储可能转向宽松政策带来的投资者信心改善等因素推动， 黄金价格目前在每盎司3342美元附近波动。 这主要源于中国市场消费疲软，以及2025年全球增长前景放缓，全 ...

分析来看，美日达成贸易协议的消息，令市场避险情绪得以缓解，这使得金价在6月中旬高点下方遇 阻。不过，整体来看，随着8月1日美国"对等关税"暂停期截止时点的临近、以及美联储利率会议的到 来，市场依然存在较大不确定性。同时，对美联储年内两次降息的预期将是未来黄金市场潜在的支撑力 量。加上美元持续走弱，同样限制了短期金价向下的空间。 技术上来看，金价3400美元整数关口得而复失，加上前期3450美元附近高点阻力压制，金价再次回落， 短线将再次陷入修正，周内需要进一步关注3400美元整数关口反复争夺的结果。在未收复3400美元整数 关口之前，黄金多头要保持高度警惕，谨防金价进一步向下调整。 日内走势来看，在3400美元关口得而复失之后，金价当前运行在5日均线附近。上方受整数关口、以及 布林带上轨3410美元的压制，下方则受到10日均线的技术支撑，日内行情将陷入3365-3410美元的区间 内震荡。 新华财经北京7月24日电周三（7月23日），国际现货金价冲高回落，日线收跌44.50美元，跌幅1.30%。 随着金价日K线呈现长阴线形态，且吞噬了前一天的阳线，表明短期金价挑战前期3450美元高点的尝试 失败，短线金价将再 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.31%至 9898 美元/吨；SHFE 铜上涨 0.4%至 元/吨；国内现货 | | | 79970 | | | | | 进口仍处于小幅亏损状态。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特表示，关税收入"数额巨大"， | | | | | | | | 可能占美国 GDP 的 1%，未来十年关税收入有望达到 2.8 | | | 万亿美元，8 | 月 1 | 日是最后期 | | | 限，但不代表不可以再谈。另外，在解雇鲍威尔方面态度出现软化。美国总统特朗普表 | | | | | | | | 示，美国与日本、菲律宾、印尼等国接近达成协议。国内方面，央行表示国内房地产贷 | | | | | | | | 款增速回升，住户消费贷款保持增长。库存方面来看，LME 吨至 | | | 库存增加 | 2775 | 124850 | | 铜 | 吨；Comex 库存增加 379 吨至 221156 万吨；SHF ...

美东时间周一（7月21日），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指跌0.04%，纳指涨0.38%，标普500指数涨 0.14%。贵金属板块涨幅居前，热门科技股多数上涨，谷歌涨超2%，Meta、博通、亚马逊涨超1%。 热门中概股收盘涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.28%，虎牙大涨16%，蔚来涨近3%，拼多多涨超2%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.16%，报13909点。 周一纽约尾盘（周二北京时间04:59），离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1710元，较上周五纽约尾盘涨103点，日内整 体交投于7.1836~7.1694元区间。 商品市场，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.55%，报3410.3美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货收涨2.02%，报39.24美元/盎司。 WTI 8月原油期货收跌0.21%，报67.2美元/桶；布伦特9月原油期货收跌0.1%，报69.21美元/桶。 纳指与标普500指数再创新高 美东时间周一，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数收盘创下历史新高，主要受谷歌A和其他大盘股的提振。本周投资者将聚 焦七巨头的财报，并等待贸易谈判的进展。 美股行业ETF中，网络股指数ETF涨0.65%，可选消费ET ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are supported by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with a recent increase in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold is currently trading around $3347 per ounce, having risen by 0.35% last Friday due to a 0.5% decline in the US dollar index, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [1] - Analysts show a bullish sentiment towards gold, with a significant increase in retail investor optimism [1][3] Group 2 - Concerns over US debt growth and further tariff news are likely to keep gold in focus, with strong bottom support observed for gold prices [3] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to provide new momentum for gold prices, with market expectations indicating no changes to the federal funds rate at least until October [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening dollar trend are all contributing to the support for gold prices [3] Group 3 - There are concerns about weakening momentum for gold prices, as they have failed to break through the $3400 per ounce level, indicating a reduction in upward momentum [3] - The significant price increases in other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium suggest that some investors are shifting towards alternative assets, potentially diminishing gold's attractiveness [3] - The Federal Reserve Chair is expected to resist pressure for rate cuts, citing reasons such as uncontrolled inflation and economic uncertainty, which may limit the direct impact on gold prices from tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has upgraded its rating on emerging market local currency sovereign bonds to "overweight," betting on declining interest rates and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Analysts Dirk Willer and Adam Pickett noted early signs of tariff transmission effects in the U.S. June inflation data, but a slowdown in service prices may keep inflation under control [1] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to restart a loosening cycle in the second half of 2025 is highlighted, which typically benefits emerging markets [1]