Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government debt will eventually impact the market, squeezing out other investment opportunities [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes that at some point, the level of U.S. government debt will have significant market implications [1] - The potential crowding out effect on other investment opportunities is highlighted, indicating a shift in capital allocation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cuts in the U.S. may not effectively address the issues of government debt and stagflation, as highlighted by Minsheng Securities' chief economist Tao Chuan and his team [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has led to increased market expectations for rate cuts this year due to disappointing recent employment data [1] - The depreciation of the dollar is causing imported inflation, which complicates the implementation of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Debt and Wealth - The high-interest environment in the past has resulted in the private sector holding an increasing amount of U.S. government debt, suggesting that lowering interest rates could negatively impact American wealth [1]

贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that there is no rush to cut interest rates, citing high tariffs as a significant source of uncertainty that requires careful observation [1][2] - Powell indicated that future trade agreements could influence the Fed's consideration of rate cuts, reflecting the impact of trade policies on economic forecasts [1][3] - Most Federal Reserve officials support a rate cut this year, but they are waiting to observe inflation trends in the coming months [3][6] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation - Powell stated that the current high tariffs lack modern precedent, making it challenging for the Fed to assess their potential impact on inflation [2][4] - He noted that tariffs are expected to contribute to inflation in the coming months, with consumers likely bearing some of the costs [3][5] - The Fed is still determining how much of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers and how it will manifest in measured inflation [5][6] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not consider the federal government's debt in its monetary policy decisions, although he acknowledged that fiscal policy can exacerbate inflationary pressures [8] - He expressed concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal path, highlighting that debt growth is outpacing economic growth [8] - Powell briefly addressed student loan debt, suggesting it is an issue Congress needs to consider due to its negative impact on borrowers' economic participation [9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Headquarters Renovation - Recent reports indicated that the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters could cost approximately $2.5 billion, leading to public scrutiny [10] - Powell defended the renovation plans, stating that the building requires updates for safety and functionality, and clarified that sensationalized media reports about luxury features are inaccurate [10]

Group 1 - Nassim Taleb suggests that while the dollar remains an effective medium of exchange, gold has effectively become the world's reserve currency [1][2] - Taleb highlights that the market is driven by asset allocation rather than long-term economic factors, indicating a disconnect between market behavior and economic fundamentals [2][3] - The accumulation of gold reserves by central banks is seen as a sign of the dollar losing its status as a reserve currency, with recent geopolitical events accelerating this trend [2][3] Group 2 - Taleb criticizes the economic strategies of the Trump administration, arguing that their approach is irrational and detrimental to GDP growth [3][4] - He points out that tariffs imposed on goods not produced domestically disproportionately affect the lower-income population, as they spend a larger portion of their income on necessities [4] - The potential impact of immigration policies on the labor market is discussed, with Taleb warning that restricting labor sources could have negative long-term consequences for the economy [4]

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 那么，为什么川普要屡次施压鲍威尔，让美联储赶紧降息呢？！ 我在前文《》谈到，市场目前普遍预期美联储会按兵不动。 我在昨天晚上的直播课上解释过，川普不但施压鲍威尔降息100个基点，甚至以提名下一任美联储人选作为要挟，准备用影子美联储主席来影响未来美联 储的决策，推动降息，其目的川普写得非常清晰，即—— "可以大幅降低即将到底的长期和短期债务的利率。" 截至2025年5月26日，援引债务时钟的数据显示，美国总负债已经达到36.89万亿美元。 如上图所示，截至2024财年，美国政府债务/GDP突破130%，联邦政府债务/GDP突破120%。 2024财年利息支出总额超1万亿美元，近三年年均利息增长1900亿美元。 如上图所示，从净利息支出的角度，2024财年联邦政府净利息支出8811亿美元，占GDP比重约为3.1%。 根据美国国会预算办公室预测， 2025财年联邦政府净利息支出将达到9523亿美元，占GDP的比重将进一步上升至3.2%。但在美国削减政府非必要支出作 用下，预计联邦政府支出约7.03万亿美元，占GDP比重降为23.3%，2024财年23.4%。 | 财年 | ...

王爷说财经讯：语出惊人！资深专家警告：未来10年，美元将丧失75%购买力，而黄金也可能暴涨，甚至金价可能涨到12000美元！ 为什么这样说？这样预测的背后理论依据是什么？ 所以鲁尔认为，就美国目前的财政状况，根本没办法再履行社会保障、医疗保险和养老金等义务，唯一可行的途径就是允许美元贬值。 6月3日消息，资深投资者、Rule Investment Media总裁兼首席执行官——鲁尔（Rick Rule）发出超重磅警告！ 他指出，未来数十年，由于美国不受约束的政府支出和无资金准备的债务，在未来10年，美元的购买力将大幅削弱。 在接受采访时，鲁尔提到，美国政府30万亿美元的表内债务只是冰山一角。更惊人的是，还有高达100万亿美元的未融资承诺，像医疗保险、社会保障和联 邦养老金这些。 所以这样一算，美国政府的总债务负担可就高得吓人了，几乎快赶上全美141万亿美元的家庭净资产总额。 最终，算下来，美国的家庭财富缓冲只剩下11万亿美元，而且鲁尔觉得这个缓冲很快就会消失不见。 更糟糕的是，这两类负债每年还以大约2万亿美元的速度在增长。 照这个速度，5年内剩余的保证金就没啦，这不得不让人对美国长期的偿付能力产生质疑。 对于 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-30 美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，此前美国国际贸易法院叫停了"解放日"关税政策；特 朗普麾下官员对取得诉讼胜利表现得极具信心，还认为即使败诉也能另寻他法征收关税，同时关税谈判也将继续 推进，未来几周会有三份协议。而美国财长贝森特表示，过去48小时贸易伙伴的态度没有任何变化。此外，特朗 普新上任以来首次约见鲍威尔，特朗普要求其降息，鲍威尔则坚持货币政策独立性。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-29，沪金主力合约开于 772.70元/克，收于 764.32元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -1.03%。当日成交量为 250594手，持仓量为 195076手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 773.58 元/克，收于 773.78 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.96%。 2025-05-29，沪银主力合约开于 8236元/千克，收于 8224元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 659531手，持仓量 345595手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,249元/千克，收于 8,235 元/千克， ...

高盛集团总裁表示，债券交易员越来越担心美国政府债务水平不断上升，现在这已经成为比关税更大的 风险。"尽管之前所有关注点都集中在关税上，但我认为关注确实正在转移，尤其是在债券市场，转向 美国预算辩论和财政状况，我认为这令人有些担忧，"John Waldron周四在Bernstein主办的一次会议上表 示。"我认为目前宏观层面上的最大风险其实不再是关税。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a pullback due to resistance at the $3500 level, with expectations of a potential rebound after testing support levels [1][3][8]. Price Movement - On May 27, gold opened at $3346.13 per ounce, reached a high of $3349.64, and then fell to a low of $3285.47 before closing at $3300.50, marking a daily decline of $45.63 or 1.36% [1]. - The price is expected to maintain a range between $2900 and $3500, with potential upward movement if it breaks through the downward trend line [10][12]. Market Influences - The rebound of the US dollar index has created downward pressure on gold prices, while easing trade tensions have also contributed to this trend [3][8]. - Positive signals regarding tariffs from the Trump administration and potential new sanctions against Russia have created mixed influences on gold prices [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the May average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthening bullish momentum [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold is near the downward trend pressure around $3500, with a focus on whether it can maintain above recent lows for further bullish opportunities [14]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3290 and $3272, while resistance levels are at $3320 and $3340 [15]. - For silver, support is noted at $33.10 and $32.90, with resistance at $33.60 and $33.80 [15].