Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price first declined and then rebounded. At the end of July, the US reached new tariff agreements with Japan and Europe, and a new round of China-US talks was held in Sweden. The uncertainty of tariffs decreased significantly, market risk appetite continued to rise, and the gold price continued to fall. However, the unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3][10][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The weekly trend is presented through the linkage chart of the US dollar index and the futures closing price of COMEX gold [7][9]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 1 | July 25 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 3,416.00 | 3,338.50 | 2.32% | | COMEX Silver | 37.11 | 38.33 | -3.18% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 770.72 | 777.32 | -0.85% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 8,918.00 | 9,392.00 | -5.05% | | US Dollar Index | 98.69 | 97.67 | 1.05% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.19 | 7.17 | 0.31% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.96 | -0.06 | | S&P 500 | 6,238.01 | 6,388.64 | -2.36% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 67.26 | 65.07 | 3.37% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 92.06 | 87.11 | 5.69% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 86.42 | 82.76 | 4.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 953.08 | 957.09 | -4.01 | | iShare Gold ETF | 450.04 | 449.60 | 0.44% | [8] 2. Unexpectedly Poor Non-Farm Payrolls, Gold Price Rebounds - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. The unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. In July, the newly added non-farm payrolls were only 73,000 (expected 110,000), the lowest since October 2024. In addition, historical data was also significantly revised downward. The data for May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and that for June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. The total revision for the two months was 258,000, the worst three-month average since the pandemic (with an average of only 35,000 per month). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (previous value 4.1%), rising for the third consecutive month. The labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, a three-year low, reflecting the shrinkage of the labor supply due to the tightening of immigration policies. On Friday, the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield declined significantly due to the non-farm payrolls data. The US stock market showed a high-level decline trend, and market panic increased significantly [10][12][14]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been continuously rising. According to the data on July 29, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by -30,708 contracts, the short position changed by -1,266 contracts, and the net long position changed by -29,442 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and its timeliness is poor. Last week, the bullish sentiment in the domestic market cooled down, silver prices continued to fall from high levels, and the gold-silver ratio began to rebound. Since late July, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have shown a slight decline [18][20][22]. 4. Conclusion - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bullish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of slightly bullish. The core logic is that the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has increased market risk - aversion demand, pushing up gold prices. For copper, the short - term, mid - term and intraday views are all consolidation (slightly bullish intraday), and the recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the cooling of the domestic long - position atmosphere and the rebound of the US dollar index have pressured copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Outlook**: Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - **Core Logic**: The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on Friday night led to a significant rebound in gold prices. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data exceeded expectations and non - farm payrolls were disappointing, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession, reducing market risk appetite, causing a significant decline in US stocks, and thus benefiting gold prices. Also, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also positive for gold prices. It is expected that the gold price will move strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of the Q2 consolidation range [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term: Consolidation; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last week, the domestic long - position atmosphere continued to cool, and combined with the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices were pressured down. On Thursday, the US tariff policy excluded refined copper, causing a sharp drop in New York copper and a rapid narrowing of the spread between COMEX and LME copper, which means that the US is temporarily unable to be self - sufficient in refined copper, which is beneficial for SHFE copper and LME copper. It is the domestic industrial off - season, and the inventory reduction at a low level has slowed down. In the short - term, SHFE copper is at the July low, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the low level [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as "High-level consolidation, bearish in the future" [1] - The recommended strategy is to "Wait and see for now, and short later" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is trading the weakening of the US economy, with signs of economic decline emerging. Although the copper fundamentals currently have some support, they are showing signs of weakening. The market's trading logic has changed again, and concerns about overseas miners suppressing long-term processing fees are relatively strong, reinforcing the long position's bet on copper shortage. In the short term, the downside space for copper prices may be limited, and they are expected to remain at a high level. However, due to weakening demand and lack of macro confidence, it is difficult for copper prices to continue rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The open-pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of WANXIANG MINING CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., has officially started. This is the first large-scale copper mine project restarted since the suspension of copper mining in 2021, marking that WANXIANG MINING has entered the era of "simultaneous development of gold and copper" again. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit growth point for WANXIANG MINING [2] Variety Logic Macro Perspective - The US CPI data is lower than market expectations, and the market starts to trade the weakening of the US economy. In terms of non-farm employment, although it is higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the short-term employment diffusion index has declined, indicating that although the employment market is still strong at present, there is a high risk of decline in the future. At the same time, the revised US GDP still shows negative growth, and overall, the economic weakening has begun to emerge [2] Fundamentals - **Supply Side**: The import copper concentrate processing fee of smelters is -$43.91 per dry ton, and the spot processing fee has stabilized but is still in a deep inversion state. Overseas miners are seeking to negotiate with Chinese smelters to lower the long-term processing fee, and smelters are under great pressure. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production cut actions in the future [2] - **Demand Side**: The production of copper rods, copper tubes, etc. has reached the high level of the same period in previous years, but the downstream is gradually entering the off-season [2] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, and short copper later [2][3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "flight" from long-term U.S. Treasuries as expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve diminish, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5% [1] - Recent weak consumer and producer price data have revived rate cut expectations, with futures indicating a higher probability of cuts starting in September [1] - Concerns over fiscal policy, particularly the potential impact of Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan," which could increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, are contributing to a steepening yield curve [2] Group 2 - The trend of steepening yield curves is expected to continue, driven by a preference for short-term bonds while reducing exposure to long-term bonds due to uncertainties in fiscal expansion and potential inflation risks from tariff policies [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts, which suggest a policy rate of 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, indicating a cautious outlook on long-term Treasuries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, indicating a potential reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The adjustment in recession probability suggests that Goldman Sachs has identified some positive economic signals, including a stable job market, sustained consumer spending, and recovery in certain sectors [3]. - Despite the lowered recession probability, the U.S. economy still faces significant uncertainties, including global economic complexities, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial market volatility [3][5]. Market Reaction - The revised forecast may positively influence investor sentiment, potentially boosting confidence in risk assets and leading to short-term increases in stock and bond markets [4]. - There exists a divergence in market perspectives, with some economists believing the U.S. economy has passed its most challenging phase, while others caution that the recovery foundation remains fragile [4]. Policy Implications - The effectiveness of U.S. government fiscal policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies will be crucial in supporting economic recovery while avoiding excessive inflation or other risks [4][5]. - A misstep in policy coordination could elevate the risk of economic recession, despite the current positive signals from Goldman Sachs [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term view on gold is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the easing of Sino - US relations is negative for the gold price, while the rising expectation of a US recession is positive for it. Also, local geopolitical tensions and a weakening US economy provide impetus for the gold price to rebound [1][3]. - The short - term view on nickel is decline, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the strong upstream and weak downstream lead to nickel's oscillation. The upstream ore end is strong, providing support for the futures price, while the downstream stainless steel lacks a continuous upward drive [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the intraday gold price oscillated, and it rose significantly during the night session. Shanghai gold increased in positions and rose, breaking through the 760 mark and standing above 770. New York gold reached around $3300. Technically, Shanghai gold broke through 760 and New York gold broke through $3250 in the short term, showing strong upward momentum [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Multiple US officials revealed that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Local geopolitical tensions and a weakening US economy give impetus for the gold price to rebound. It is advisable to continue to focus on the long - short game around $3300 in the short term [3]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The main nickel futures price showed a downward trend near the end of trading yesterday but rebounded at the night session, regaining the 123,000 mark. Last week, the nickel price twice reached 126,000 and then declined, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel rose and then declined, lacking a continuous upward drive. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after reaching the bottom and still has strong technical support at the 123,000 mark [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The main logic is that Sino - US relations are easing and there is an expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, so nickel prices tend to move sideways [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. New York gold repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded after falling below $3200. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated above $3200, and the corresponding Shanghai gold oscillated above 755 yuan with a narrowing amplitude [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The decline in gold prices is due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand. The rebound is due to the recession expectation caused by the downward trend of the US economy. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. The "signals" from the second and third - in - command of the Fed indicate that there may be no interest rate cuts before September, causing the US dollar to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Short - term attention can be paid to the support level of $3200 [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the main nickel futures price oscillated weakly around 124,000 yuan. Last week, the nickel price twice hit a high of 126,000 yuan and then fell back, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel has stabilized and rebounded but lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Attention can be paid to the technical support level of 123,000 yuan [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory due to factors like the easing of Sino - US relations and the adjustment of the US sovereign credit rating [1][3] - For nickel, a wait - and - see stance is also advised. The short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory because of the strong upstream and weak downstream in the industry [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][3] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the overall gold price trended downward. The decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduced market risk - aversion demand. The rebound was caused by the recession expectation due to the US economic slowdown. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. In the short term, the gold price rebounded after reaching the bottom and had strong support at the $3200 level [3] Nickel - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Since last week, the positive macro factors at home and abroad have not significantly pushed up the nickel price, indicating that the industrial fundamentals are suppressing the upward movement. The strong upstream mining end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 123,000 level [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to decline, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices [1] - For nickel 2506, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to be weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion to wait and see because of strong upstream nickel mines and weak downstream stainless steel [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices initially dropped nearly 2% in the Asian morning session, with New York gold approaching $3100, then rebounded, turning from decline to increase, and New York gold regained the $3200 mark with an amplitude of over $100 [3] - **Driving Logic**: The initial decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the improvement of global geopolitical situation, which reduced the demand for safe - haven assets. The subsequent rebound was because the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were postponed to Friday and neither leader would attend, which dispelled the expectation of a quick peace agreement, leading to the return of safe - haven funds. Also, poor US economic data, including retail data and PPI index falling short of expectations, increased the recession expectation and provided upward momentum for gold prices [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with significant differences between bulls and bears. It is advisable to focus on the multi - empty game around the $3200 level of New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Since this week, the main nickel futures price has been broadly fluctuating in the range of 123,000 - 126,000 yuan [5] - **Driving Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has been fluctuating upward due to internal and external macro - level positives, but nickel has been relatively weak. This is mainly because nickel prices are greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals, with strong upstream mines providing support and weak downstream demand exerting pressure. With a good macro - environment and neutral industrial performance, nickel prices may fluctuate strongly [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over $50 on May 1, marking a continuous downward trend due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid easing international trade tensions [1][4][6]. Group 1: Recent Price Movements - On May 1, spot gold prices fell to $3240.62 per ounce, a decrease of 1.45% [1][2]. - The price of gold has been on a downward trajectory for three consecutive days, with notable declines of 0.81% and 0.85% on the preceding days [4][6]. - The recent peak of gold prices reached $3500 per ounce, but the market is now adjusting following this high [6][10]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets as trade tensions appear to be easing, with the U.S. government indicating potential trade agreements [4][10]. - U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer mentioned that preliminary trade agreements could be announced soon, which may lead to reduced tariffs on trade partners [5][9]. - The market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to cautious optimism due to the U.S. administration's willingness to engage in trade negotiations [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, with the first quarter showing a contraction for the first time since 2022, attributed to a surge in imports and reduced government spending [9][10]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the personal consumption expenditure price index and the monthly non-farm payroll report [9][10]. - Despite the recent downturn, forecasts suggest that gold prices could rebound, with predictions of reaching $3590 per ounce by the end of the second quarter and $3800 by year-end [9][10].