Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term view on gold is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the easing of Sino - US relations is negative for the gold price, while the rising expectation of a US recession is positive for it. Also, local geopolitical tensions and a weakening US economy provide impetus for the gold price to rebound [1][3]. - The short - term view on nickel is decline, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the strong upstream and weak downstream lead to nickel's oscillation. The upstream ore end is strong, providing support for the futures price, while the downstream stainless steel lacks a continuous upward drive [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the intraday gold price oscillated, and it rose significantly during the night session. Shanghai gold increased in positions and rose, breaking through the 760 mark and standing above 770. New York gold reached around $3300. Technically, Shanghai gold broke through 760 and New York gold broke through $3250 in the short term, showing strong upward momentum [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Multiple US officials revealed that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Local geopolitical tensions and a weakening US economy give impetus for the gold price to rebound. It is advisable to continue to focus on the long - short game around $3300 in the short term [3]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The main nickel futures price showed a downward trend near the end of trading yesterday but rebounded at the night session, regaining the 123,000 mark. Last week, the nickel price twice reached 126,000 and then declined, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel rose and then declined, lacking a continuous upward drive. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after reaching the bottom and still has strong technical support at the 123,000 mark [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The main logic is that Sino - US relations are easing and there is an expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, so nickel prices tend to move sideways [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. New York gold repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded after falling below $3200. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated above $3200, and the corresponding Shanghai gold oscillated above 755 yuan with a narrowing amplitude [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The decline in gold prices is due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand. The rebound is due to the recession expectation caused by the downward trend of the US economy. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. The "signals" from the second and third - in - command of the Fed indicate that there may be no interest rate cuts before September, causing the US dollar to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Short - term attention can be paid to the support level of $3200 [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the main nickel futures price oscillated weakly around 124,000 yuan. Last week, the nickel price twice hit a high of 126,000 yuan and then fell back, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel has stabilized and rebounded but lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Attention can be paid to the technical support level of 123,000 yuan [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory due to factors like the easing of Sino - US relations and the adjustment of the US sovereign credit rating [1][3] - For nickel, a wait - and - see stance is also advised. The short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory because of the strong upstream and weak downstream in the industry [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][3] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the overall gold price trended downward. The decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduced market risk - aversion demand. The rebound was caused by the recession expectation due to the US economic slowdown. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. In the short term, the gold price rebounded after reaching the bottom and had strong support at the $3200 level [3] Nickel - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Since last week, the positive macro factors at home and abroad have not significantly pushed up the nickel price, indicating that the industrial fundamentals are suppressing the upward movement. The strong upstream mining end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 123,000 level [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to decline, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices [1] - For nickel 2506, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to be weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion to wait and see because of strong upstream nickel mines and weak downstream stainless steel [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices initially dropped nearly 2% in the Asian morning session, with New York gold approaching $3100, then rebounded, turning from decline to increase, and New York gold regained the $3200 mark with an amplitude of over $100 [3] - **Driving Logic**: The initial decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the improvement of global geopolitical situation, which reduced the demand for safe - haven assets. The subsequent rebound was because the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were postponed to Friday and neither leader would attend, which dispelled the expectation of a quick peace agreement, leading to the return of safe - haven funds. Also, poor US economic data, including retail data and PPI index falling short of expectations, increased the recession expectation and provided upward momentum for gold prices [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with significant differences between bulls and bears. It is advisable to focus on the multi - empty game around the $3200 level of New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Since this week, the main nickel futures price has been broadly fluctuating in the range of 123,000 - 126,000 yuan [5] - **Driving Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has been fluctuating upward due to internal and external macro - level positives, but nickel has been relatively weak. This is mainly because nickel prices are greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals, with strong upstream mines providing support and weak downstream demand exerting pressure. With a good macro - environment and neutral industrial performance, nickel prices may fluctuate strongly [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over $50 on May 1, marking a continuous downward trend due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid easing international trade tensions [1][4][6]. Group 1: Recent Price Movements - On May 1, spot gold prices fell to $3240.62 per ounce, a decrease of 1.45% [1][2]. - The price of gold has been on a downward trajectory for three consecutive days, with notable declines of 0.81% and 0.85% on the preceding days [4][6]. - The recent peak of gold prices reached $3500 per ounce, but the market is now adjusting following this high [6][10]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets as trade tensions appear to be easing, with the U.S. government indicating potential trade agreements [4][10]. - U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer mentioned that preliminary trade agreements could be announced soon, which may lead to reduced tariffs on trade partners [5][9]. - The market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to cautious optimism due to the U.S. administration's willingness to engage in trade negotiations [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, with the first quarter showing a contraction for the first time since 2022, attributed to a surge in imports and reduced government spending [9][10]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the personal consumption expenditure price index and the monthly non-farm payroll report [9][10]. - Despite the recent downturn, forecasts suggest that gold prices could rebound, with predictions of reaching $3590 per ounce by the end of the second quarter and $3800 by year-end [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: The overall supply and demand of crude oil are stable. There are no definite signs of a recession in the US. Crude oil is undervalued and there is room for valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and the progress of US - Iran negotiations. Oil prices should be viewed with a topping - out strategy, and attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent [4][73]. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" on the economy will gradually materialize. It is necessary to verify whether a US recession occurs based on actual economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices still face significant pressure in the medium - to - long term. Oil prices are expected to be volatile at the end of April and beginning of May [4][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In early April, due to the US imposing tariffs on China and OPEC +'s unexpected decision to increase production in May, oil prices tumbled. Brent's main contract fell below $60 per barrel. As the macro - sentiment eased, oil prices rebounded. By the end of the month, oil prices first rose and then fell due to tariff policy fluctuations and internal disagreements within OPEC +, with Brent's main contract (July) falling back to around $65 per barrel [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Short - term: The overall supply and demand are stable, the US shows no definite signs of recession, and there is room for crude oil valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games, US - Iran negotiation progress, and OPEC production policies. - Medium - term: It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices face pressure. At the end of April and beginning of May, oil prices are expected to be volatile [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. The cracking spread of domestic gasoline is stable, while that of diesel is weak. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply due to macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of the month, global trade wars caused a sharp decline in crude oil and asphalt prices. In the middle of the month, prices rebounded due to sanctions on Iran and OPEC +'s compensation plans. In the late month, prices fluctuated due to trade wars and OPEC + internal disagreements. The discount of diluted asphalt remained at - $5.5 per barrel, and the basis and valuations increased [8]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - OPEC: In March, OPEC 12 countries' production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day. OPEC + (excluding exempted countries) slightly exceeded the production target. In early April, OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. In mid - April, OPEC + submitted a compensation plan. If implemented, supply pressure will be concentrated after the fourth quarter [13]. - US: Shale oil production costs are rising, and the growth rate of production has been revised down. In the third week of April, production was flat at 13.458 million barrels per day [16][17]. - Russia: In April, oil exports were stable. Falling oil prices led to a decline in export revenue but also increased the motivation to increase production. Future OPEC + policies need to be monitored [24][27]. - Iran: US sanctions have led to a decrease in exports and an increase in floating storage. US - Iran negotiations are ongoing, and the outcome is uncertain [29]. - Venezuela: US sanctions will lead to a decline in production and exports, but exports to China are expected to increase. IEA predicts a quarterly decline in production [32]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - US: Oil product consumption is stable. Gasoline demand recovered after the Easter holiday, diesel demand stabilized in April, and jet fuel demand reached a five - year high [35]. - China: Since April, the operation rate of state - owned refineries has declined, while that of independent refineries has increased. The overall crude oil processing volume is at the average level of the past three years [39][40]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - Inventory: Global crude oil inventory decreased in December 2024 and January 2025, then increased in February and March. In early April, it accelerated the increase and approached the five - year average. In late April, China's inventory decreased, driving down the global total [57]. - Profit: Overseas refining margins were stable, while domestic refining margins were first pushed up by falling oil prices and then pressured during the rebound [59]. - Balance: IEA predicts that in 2025, supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, demand growth will be 730,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 700,000 barrels per day. In 2026, supply will increase by 960,000 barrels per day, demand growth will be 690,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 970,000 barrels per day [61]. - Cost: In a moderately oversupplied situation, the market will test the marginal production cost line. Key areas to watch are Latin American deep - water oilfields and US shale oil (Bakken Basin) [66]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Short - term: Supply and demand are stable, there is room for valuation repair, and the main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and US - Iran negotiation progress. Attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" will gradually appear. It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data, and oil prices face pressure [73]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [74].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar index, dropping below 98 for the first time in three years, is primarily driven by investor concerns over US trade policy uncertainty and expectations of a weakening economy [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell approximately 10% year-to-date, with a notable drop below the 99 mark and reaching a low of 98.12 [1]. - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed an unexpected decline, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]. Trade Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies are impacting economic outlook, contributing to fears of a recession and diminishing confidence in the dollar [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty could lead to a further decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching 95 if conditions do not improve [5]. Market Reactions - Non-US currencies have shown strength against the dollar, with the Japanese yen surpassing 141 and the euro breaking the 1.15 mark [4]. - The market is reacting to political risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly following Trump's threats to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2]. Future Considerations - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to devalue the dollar and restructure US debt, poses risks to the stability of US financial markets [6][7]. - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of the agreement, citing challenges in international cooperation and the potential negative impact on US Treasury stability [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Trump's suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for some countries (excluding China) for 90 days reversed market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in the US government's tariff policy [2]. - OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase in May, which is a major negative factor for the supply - demand balance of the oil market [2]. - Under macro - pressure, the probability of new geopolitical information emerging is high, and attention should be paid to the situation around Iran and Turkey [2]. - The current rapid rebound of oil prices may be anchored to a weak supply - demand balance, and it is less likely for US oil to return to $70 per barrel. The technical analysis shows a clear short - term bearish trend [2]. 3. Content Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On April 9th, Sc was at 457.60 yuan/barrel, down 21.00 yuan (-4.39%) from the previous day and 98.50 yuan (-17.71%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.71/barrel, up $4.48 (7.69%) from the previous day and down $8.43 (-11.85%) from the previous week; Brent was at $65.72/barrel, up $4.10 (6.65%) from the previous day and down $8.79 (-11.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at $0.79/barrel, down $7.42 (-90.41%) from the previous day and $5.55 (-87.58%) from the previous week; Sc - Brent was at -$2.22/barrel, down $7.04 (-146.14%) from the previous day and $5.19 (-174.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Sc Month - spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was at 0.50 yuan/barrel, up 0.60 yuan (600.00%) from the previous day and down 2.40 yuan (-82.76%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was at 3.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.20 yuan (6.90%) from the previous day and down 17.40 yuan (-84.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $66.54/barrel, up $0.29 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $10.90 (-14.08%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $66.18/barrel, down $0.49 (-0.73%) from the previous day and down $11.22 (-14.50%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spreads**: Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.894708, up 0.51 (3.54%) from the previous day and 2.22 (17.52%) from the previous week; Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 17.691314, up 0.64 (3.75%) from the previous day and 2.72 (18.14%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Inventory Data - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 377.70 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and down 163.20 million barrels (-30.17%) from the previous week; Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 396.71 million barrels, with a 0.28 million - barrel increase (0.07%) [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Commercial crude oil was 442.35 million barrels, with a 2.55 million - barrel increase (0.58%); Cushing crude oil was 25.76 million barrels, with a 0.68 million - barrel increase (2.72%); gasoline was 235.98 million barrels, with a 1.60 million - barrel decrease (-0.67%); distillates were 111.08 million barrels, with a 3.54 million - barrel decrease (-3.09%) [2]. 3.3. CFTC Position Data - Non - commercial net positions were 16.77 million contracts, with a 1.29 million - contract decrease (-7.13%); commercial net positions were - 17.67 million contracts, with a 1.34 million - contract increase (-7.06%); non - report net positions were 0.90 million contracts, with a 0.06 million - contract decrease (-5.79%) [2]. 3.4. Market News - From April 4th to the week of April 4th, EIA US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.553 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.681 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.544 million barrels [3]. - Iraq set the price of Basra Heavy crude oil for Asia in May at a discount of $2.90 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average price, and the price of Basra Medium crude oil at a premium of $0.25 per barrel [3]. - Trump suspended the comprehensive reciprocal tariff policy for 90 days for trade negotiations but retained a 10% benchmark tariff on all goods entering the US and continued to impose tariffs on specific industries [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 76.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.9% [4]. - JPMorgan predicts that the next Fed rate cut will be in September [5]. - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months but revised it to 45% after Trump's suspension announcement [5]. - EU member states voted to impose a 25% tariff on US imports in retaliation for the US steel and aluminum tariffs [5]. - China's State Council Tariff Commission raised the tariff rate on US imports from 34% to 84% [6]. - US trade tariffs may have a greater impact on the eurozone economy than the ECB initially estimated, and may drag down inflation [6]. 3.5. Operation Suggestions - The short - term market sentiment has reversed, but the medium - term strategy is to sell high. Aggressive investors can consider short - term short positions or buying put options [2].