Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the U.S. economy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have led to a significant decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $55.1 to $3,327.9 per ounce, a decrease of 1.63% [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5% [1] - The GDP growth was primarily driven by a decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending, while declines in investment and exports partially offset this growth [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% during its July meeting, despite some members voting in favor of a rate cut [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments indicated a robust U.S. economy, with low unemployment and a labor market close to maximum employment, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Analysts expect the Fed's monetary policy stance to be slightly more hawkish than current market expectations [2] Precious Metals Market - Following the decline in gold prices, silver futures for September delivery fell by $1.21 to $37.175 per ounce, a decrease of 3.15% [2]

Market Overview - US stock markets opened slightly higher with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices showing minor gains [4] - The US dollar index experienced a sudden increase, while spot gold prices fell below $3300 [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with a 98% probability of maintaining the benchmark rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [6] - The US Commerce Department's preliminary estimate indicates a 3.0% annual growth in real GDP for Q2 2025 [6] Company Performance - New Oriental reported a 9.4% year-over-year increase in Q4 net revenue to $1.243 billion, but net profit dropped 73.7% to $7.1 million due to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment [10] - Excluding the Oriental Selection business, core education revenue reached $1.09 billion, reflecting an 18.7% growth [10] - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental anticipates a 13.6% revenue increase to $4.9 billion and a 20.1% rise in net profit to $372 million [10] - The company projects fiscal year 2026 revenue between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, representing a 5% to 10% growth [10] - In the automotive sector, shares of Li Auto and NIO fell over 3% [10] Stock Movements - Wingstop shares surged nearly 28%, LendingClub rose nearly 17%, and other notable gains included Tarrytown and Weifu Group, which increased over 15% and 13% respectively [5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.86% [8]

Group 1 - The initial annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the United States in the second quarter is 3%, exceeding the expected rate of 2.4% and a previous value of -0.5% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy showed signs of recovery in Q2, with GDP growth of 3% compared to a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [1] - Consumer spending increased by 1.4%, marking the weakest performance in two consecutive quarters since the pandemic [1] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, adding 5 percentage points, reversing the previous three months' negative impact [1] Economic Activity - The rebound in economic activity was attributed to a slight recovery in consumer spending and a decrease in the import surge that had previously inflated [1] - Business investment growth has also slowed down, indicating a cautious outlook among companies [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the Q2 GDP report, U.S. Treasury prices fell, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by approximately 3 basis points to 4.35% [1]

美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比初值增长3%，增幅高于预期值2.6%，前值为0.5%。美国二季度核心个 人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年化季环比初值增长2.5%，增幅高于预期值2.3%，前值为3.5%。数据显示， 美国经济活动在第二季度出现反弹，原因是消费者支出温和回升。净出口对GDP的贡献为正，拉动了5 个百分点，而在一季度创纪录地对GDP构成拖累。在特朗普不断施压美联储降息之际，这份报告或对其 提供支撑。 ...

美国第二季度年化实际GDP总量初值 236853亿美元，前值235127亿美元。 ...

今晚20:30公布的美国第二季度GDP数据，或许会在账面上显示强劲反弹，但这份数据很可能具有相当大的误导性。 由贸易逆差收窄驱动的增长，掩盖了消费支出温和及商业投资停滞等核心领域的疲软迹象，这让一份看似强劲的报告，实则预示着美国 经济的潜在动能正在放缓。 媒体对经济学家的调查显示，市场普遍预期美国第二季度GDP将实现2.4%的年化增长，彻底扭转第一季度0.5%的萎缩局面。瑞银在最新 发布的财报中，将美国第二季度GDP增长预测大幅上调至2.6%， 尽管GDP读数或许乐观，经济学家们却普遍警告，应将焦点放在"对国内私人购买者的最终销售额"这一关键指标上。该指标被视为衡量 美国本土真实经济健康状况的"晴雨表"，而其增速预计将从第一季度1.9%的水平放缓。 他表示，特朗普政府不可预测的关税战略所产生的连锁反应已广泛波及经济，其"主要影响是在企业界制造了谨慎情绪"。 贸易数据扭曲，美国二季度GDP或现反弹 贸易和库存这两个最具波动性的GDP组成部分，正连续第二个季度主导着经济数据的走向。 瑞银现预测第二季度实际GDP年化增长率为2.6%，远高于第一季度-0.5%的萎缩。然而，这一增长几乎完全由净出口的巨大贡献所驱动， ...

金十整理：机构预期今晚20:30公布的美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值（前值：-0.5%） 1. 标准普尔：+1.3%；巴克莱：+1.5%；蒙特利尔银行：+1.6%；大和资本：+1.6%； 2. 富国银行：+1.8%；裕信银行：+2.0%；德意志银行：+2.1%；摩根士丹利：+2.1%； 3. 牛津经济：+2.1%；道明证券：+2.1%；贝伦贝格银行：+2.2%；帝商银行：+2.2%； 4. 斯蒂费尔：+2.2%；美国银行：+2.3%；德商银行：+2.3%；劳埃德银行：+2.3%； 5. 野村证券：+2.3%；瑞银集团：+2.3%；荷兰银行：+2.4%；澳新银行：+2.4%； 6. 渣打银行：+2.4%；凯投宏观：+2.5%；摩根大通：+2.5%；加皇银行：+2.5%； 7. 高盛集团：+2.6%；西太银行：+2.6%；花旗集团：+2.8%；穆迪分析：+2.8%； 8. 联信银行：+2.9%；赫莱巴银行：+3.0%；潘森宏观：+3.0%；法巴银行：+3.2%； 9. 荷兰国际：+3.3%；汇丰银行：+3.4%；瑞穗银行：+3.7%。[路透调查：+2.4%] ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing strong bearish pressure, with a significant drop from the recent high of 3439, indicating a potential further decline towards the support levels of 3245 and 3150-3120 [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices marks the first occurrence of four consecutive bearish daily candles since the rise began in November 2022, suggesting a strong return of bearish sentiment [2]. - The 60-day moving average and key support levels have been breached, indicating a failure of bullish momentum and a shift towards bearish trends [2]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips, as the market is currently oversold, with potential for a rebound before further declines [4][11]. Group 2: Market Events and Data - Upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment figures and GDP, are expected to influence market sentiment, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [6]. - The gold market is anticipated to remain volatile as traders react to these economic indicators and geopolitical developments [6][11]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - The silver market has shown a similar pattern, with recent price action indicating resistance at the 39.7 level, aligning with previous expectations [8][10]. - The overall outlook for silver remains bearish, with key resistance levels identified at 38.5 and 39.7, while support is seen at lower levels [10]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, which may exert additional pressure on gold and silver prices, with key resistance levels at 99.5-100 [10]. - The performance of U.S. stock futures has been mixed, indicating uncertainty in the broader market, which could impact commodity trading strategies [15].

Economic Overview - The U.S. real GDP for the first quarter decreased at an annualized rate of 0.5%, which is worse than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first economic contraction in three years [1] - The decline was primarily due to an increase in imports and a decrease in government spending, despite growth in investment and consumer spending [1][4] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic, with growth revised down from an initial 1.7% to only 0.5% [6] - The contribution of personal consumption to GDP was only 0.31%, significantly lower than the previously reported 0.80% and 1.21% [7] Investment and Trade - Fixed investment contributed 1.31% to GDP, driven by strong investments in data centers [7] - The trade deficit negatively impacted GDP by approximately 4.76%, slightly better than previous estimates [7] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][13] - The overall domestic purchases price index increased by 3.4%, reflecting upward adjustments in inflation estimates [13] Future Projections - The next GDP estimate for the second quarter is expected to show a rebound in economic growth, with economists predicting a growth rate of 3% [12]