Core Insights - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1052.54 tons of gold as of December 17, which is an increase of 0.85 tons from the previous trading day [1] - Spot gold prices closed at $4337.16 per ounce on December 17, reflecting a gain of 0.81%, with an intraday high of $4348.66 and a low of $4300.39 [1] Market Context - Geopolitical risks and expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative monetary policy have contributed to gold prices returning to around $4340, followed by a wide trading range, ultimately closing up 0.84% [3] - Investors are focused on upcoming CPI data and the European Central Bank meeting minutes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot silver price has experienced a significant upward trend, reaching new highs due to supply-demand imbalances and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 1, the spot silver price peaked at $58.84 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [1]. - By December 17, the price surpassed $66 per ounce, rising nearly 4% to $66.28, and briefly hitting a historical high of $66.88 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is currently facing a supply shortage, driven by the rapid development of the green and digital transitions [2]. - Increased demand for silver is being fueled by the growth in the electric vehicle battery and solar panel markets, as well as ongoing demand from the artificial intelligence sector [2]. - A report from the Silver Institute and Oxford Economics highlights silver's critical role in global economic and technological transitions, particularly in solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers over the next decade [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - Silver prices are sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rates, with recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets [3]. - The U.S. dollar index fell from approximately 99.4 on December 1 to 98.37 by December 17, providing upward momentum for silver prices denominated in dollars [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in over four years, indicating a weakening labor market and contributing to increased market demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by economic data and potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [1][2][3] Group 2 - The main silver futures contract in Shanghai has seen an increase of 2.11%, reaching 13,777.00 yuan per kilogram, with a daily high of 13,809.00 yuan and a low of 13,430.00 yuan [1] - The U.S. manufacturing sector is showing weakness, with the November ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.2, below expectations and previous values, indicating a potential recession [2] - The ISM new orders index fell to 47.4 from 49.4, further highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector [2] - Market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are rising due to disappointing economic data [2] - The potential nomination of Hassett as the new Federal Reserve Chairman could impact the independence and credibility of the Fed, which is contributing to the strength of silver prices [2] - Current silver prices are expected to continue rising, with a focus on the resistance level of 14,500 yuan per kilogram, and a reference trading range of 12,366 to 14,500 yuan per kilogram [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The weaker-than-expected key economic data in the US has further increased the market's pricing for the Fed's loose monetary policy. The ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating a weak performance in the US manufacturing industry and increasing the market's pricing for overseas recession expectations [1]. - If Hassett is nominated as the new Fed Chairman, the market will further trade on the impact of the weakened independence and influence of the Fed on the US dollar's credit, which is why the price of silver, a monetary metal, is showing strength [2]. - The current silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. It is expected that the price may still rise significantly during the week. Pay attention to the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit-taking is required. Opening new long positions or shorting at high levels at this stage carry significant risks. Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.85% to 953.82 yuan/g, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.10% to 13,640.00 yuan/kg. COMEX Gold was reported at 4,238.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 59.15 US dollars/ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.09%, and the US dollar index was 99.33 [1]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 4,238.70 US dollars/ounce, down 0.62%; trading volume was 21.21 million lots, down 5.10%; open interest was 48.58 million lots, up 0.05%; inventory remained unchanged at 1,128 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold's closing price (active contract) was 958.42 yuan/g, down 0.50%; trading volume was 38.63 million lots, down 8.54%; open interest was 34.22 million lots, down 0.59%; inventory remained unchanged at 90.87 tons; the settled funds outflow was 1.09% to 52.473 billion yuan. The closing price of Au(T+D) was 954.69 yuan/g, down 0.37%; trading volume was 45.46 tons, down 25.02%; open interest was 224.46 tons, down 2.69% [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 59.15 US dollars/ounce, up 1.20%; open interest was 17.24 million lots, up 3.57%; inventory was 14,181 tons, down 0.01%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 13,423.00 yuan/kg, up 1.09%; trading volume was 342.78 million lots, down 5.29%; open interest was 79.11 million lots, down 1.03%; inventory was 594.63 tons, up 3.65%; the settled funds inflow was 0.05% to 28.671 billion yuan. The closing price of Ag(T+D) was 13,398.00 yuan/kg, up 1.03%; trading volume was 894.35 tons, down 44.07%; open interest was 3,969.488 tons, up 0.05% [4]. Fed Chairman Nomination - Hassett has expressed his willingness to serve if nominated as the Fed Chairman. Trump has hinted that Hassett will be the new Fed Chairman and will announce the nomination early next year [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current strong performance of silver prices is more influenced by the macro - level than the spot - level. The silver price is expected to continue to rise significantly next week, with attention focused on the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is recommended. New long positions or short - selling at high prices in this stage carry significant risks. For Shanghai Gold, it is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangle convergence, and the strategy suggests buying on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. - The release of US key economic data worse than expected has further boosted the market's pricing of the Fed's loose monetary policy, driving the strong performance of silver prices. The weakness of the US manufacturing industry has increased the market's pricing of overseas recession expectations, and the possible nomination of Hassett as the new Fed Chairman may also impact the US dollar's credit, which is why silver, as a monetary metal, shows a strong price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.66% to 964.72 yuan/g, and Shanghai Silver rose 5.08% to 13,766.00 yuan/kg. COMEX Gold was reported at 4265.60 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 58.33 dollars/ounce [2][5]. - On December 1, 2025, compared with November 28, 2025, in the gold market, COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.20% to 4265.00 dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 49.08% to 22.35 million lots, and open interest rose 0.05% to 48.58 million lots. In the silver market, COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 2.39% to 58.45 dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 77.90% to 361.93 million lots, and open interest rose 3.57% to 17.24 million lots [7]. Market Analysis - As of yesterday afternoon, the open interest of the COMEX silver near - month December contract was only 2907 lots, equivalent to 452 tons of physical silver, and the total inventory of COMEX silver was 14,183 tons as of December 1, much higher than the open interest of the near - month contract, so there is no short - term "delivery difficulty" in the overseas silver market. The one - month spot lease rate of London Silver is 6.64% as of today, far lower than the 40% high in early October, indicating limited tightness in the overseas silver spot market [3]. Strategy Suggestions - For silver, the price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, stop profit in time. Avoid opening new long positions or short - selling at high prices. For gold, since Shanghai Gold is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangle convergence, buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3].

贵金属日报 2025-11-27 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.37 %，报 949.34 元/克，沪银涨 2.73 %，报 12450.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4196.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 53.76 美元/盎司；美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4%，美元指数报 99.57 ； 日前美联储理事米兰鸽派表态，他认为不存在通货膨胀问题，当前经济形势需要大幅降息。市 场对于米兰的鸽派言论已不产生反应，但米兰同时表示希望放宽监管使得美联储资产负债表收 缩，且更多的转向美国国债，他同时表明"我们需要降低抵押贷款利率"。米兰讲话的内容呼 应了此前贝森特的表述，即大幅削减联储本身所具备的影响力。昨日海外消息人士称特朗普的 "亲密盟友"哈塞特已成为美联储新任主席的最热门人选，而他后续的货币政策表态将偏向鸽 派。美联储的人事变动近期对于金银价格形成较为强势的驱动。 当前 CME 利率观测器显示，市场预期美联储 12 月议息会议进行 25 个 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for silver futures in Shanghai experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 12,208.00 yuan, with a current price of 12,182.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.22% [1] - Institutions predict increased volatility in gold and silver prices in the short term due to dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - The silver futures contract is expected to operate within a range of 11,367 to 12,639 yuan per kilogram, with a recommendation to buy on dips [2] Group 2 - The market is awaiting key economic data from the U.S., including the delayed release of the October PCE, to assess the direction of monetary policy [1] - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 80% following statements from several officials advocating for a rate cut in December [1] - The ongoing discussions regarding the U.S. peace plan related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict contribute to market uncertainty, leading to a wait-and-see approach for precious metals [1]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight pullback in afternoon trading, with copper prices strengthening during the session [1] - Citigroup's copper consumption tracking indicated a mild year-on-year growth of 1% in global copper consumption for September [1] - Citigroup forecasts a continued weak year-on-year growth in copper consumption for Q4 2023, citing a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity as limiting factors [1] Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) saw its gains narrow to 4.06%, while the gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.52%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.07% [1] - Long-term support for copper prices is attributed to increased market liquidity due to expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce more detailed measures to boost consumption and expand openness, indicating potential further stimulation of domestic copper consumption [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates a recovery in copper demand by 2026, supported by more accommodative fiscal policies in the U.S. and a globally looser monetary environment [1]

Core Insights - Domestic futures contracts showed a mixed performance with low sulfur fuel oil dropping over 4% and SC crude oil and fuel oil declining over 3% [1] - Precious metals like silver and tin saw significant gains, with silver rising nearly 5% and tin increasing over 2% [1] Market Performance - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU) decreased by more than 4% - SC crude oil and fuel oil fell by over 3% - Caustic soda and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped by more than 1% - Silver rose nearly 5%, tin increased over 2%, while gold and pure benzene saw gains of over 1% [1] Futures Contract Details - Silver futures (护银2512) reached 12,481 with a daily increase of 4.58% [2] - Tin futures (护锡2512) stood at 297,240 with a rise of 1.97% [2] - Gold futures (护金2512) were at 962.78, up by 1.72% [2] - Crude oil futures (原油2512) were priced at 449.3, down by 3.71% [2] Economic Context - The retirement announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is expected to influence market expectations regarding monetary policy, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [3] - The U.S. House is set to vote on a bill to end the government shutdown, which is likely to release funds that could positively impact market liquidity and support precious metal prices [3] - The current phase of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is still in its early stages, suggesting a strategy of buying silver on dips may be beneficial [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of liquidity repair and the further deepening of expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, the prices of gold and silver continued their strong performance. After the news of Bostic's retirement was announced, the prices of gold and silver showed strength. The House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown today, and the U.S. government is likely to reopen. The funds released from the Treasury's general account will have a positive impact on market liquidity and also support the prices of precious metals [2][3]. - Since the Fed's current easing cycle is still in its early stage, the strategy suggests buying silver on dips as it will benefit more. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair downward. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 937 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11734 - 13000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.78% to 963.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.81% to 12508.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4201.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 53.23 dollars/ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.08%, and the U.S. dollar index at 99.49 [2]. 3.2 Key Data Changes - **Gold**: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 1.65% to 4201.40 dollars/ounce, the trading volume rose 16.05% to 27.80 million lots, and the open interest rose 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. The inventory decreased by 0.08% to 1168 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold rose 0.33% to 4136.75 dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract decreased by 0.33% to 945.76 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 8.42% to 41.88 million lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.20% to 35.50 million lots. The inventory remained unchanged at 89.62 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 0.53% to 537.13 billion yuan. The closing price of Au(T + D) decreased by 0.23% to 944.31 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 18.05% to 51.67 tons, and the open interest decreased by 2.35% to 243.14 tons [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract rose 4.22% to 53.23 dollars/ounce, and the open interest rose 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. The inventory decreased by 0.08% to 14873 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver rose 0.58% to 51.54 dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract rose 1.62% to 12073.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 8.09% to 148.10 million lots, and the open interest rose 3.56% to 75.12 million lots. The inventory decreased by 1.49% to 583.06 tons, and the settled funds rose 5.25% to 244.86 billion yuan. The closing price of Ag(T + D) rose 1.91% to 12092.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 20.04% to 870.43 tons, and the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 4077.296 tons [6]. 3.3 Graphical Data - Multiple graphs show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, exchange rates, and other factors over different time periods, including the relationships between COMEX gold price and the U.S. dollar index, COMEX gold price and real interest rate, Shanghai gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][16] 3.4 Internal - External Price Differences - On November 12, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold price difference was - 19.38 yuan/gram (- 84.68 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold price difference was - 18.04 yuan/gram (- 78.88 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver price difference was - 142.21 yuan/kilogram (- 0.62 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA silver price difference was - 86.84 yuan/kilogram (- 0.38 dollars/ounce) [49].