Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Cook's departure is expected to increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September [1] - This potential rate cut is anticipated to put pressure on the US dollar while supporting stocks and other risk assets, including Bitcoin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Lisa Cook's removal marks the first attempt by a sitting president to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor [1] - Cook was inclined to support the majority vote of the FOMC, and her departure increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September [1] - This potential rate cut is expected to put pressure on the US dollar while supporting stocks and other risk assets, including Bitcoin [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference suggest a potential for interest rate cuts in September, although he acknowledges increasing downside risks in the labor market and warns that tariffs could lead to more persistent inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Powell's comments indicate that the decision on interest rates in September will depend on the employment and price data from August [1] - Market interpretations of Powell's statements suggest a high probability of a rate cut, with futures reflecting a 90% chance of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - **Economic Indicators** - Despite the market's interpretation, Powell emphasized the importance of future data, leading to a belief that the actual chance of a rate cut is around 50% [1] - The company maintains a prediction that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold for the rest of the year [1]

Global Macro - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve is likely to open the door for a rate cut in September, driven by the increasing risks in the employment market outweighing inflation risks [2][3] - The adjustment in monetary policy framework from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible 2% inflation target reflects the changing economic environment, indicating a shift in response to high inflation and growth conditions [4] - The report suggests that while a rate cut in September is probable, it is more of a preventive measure rather than a signal of an impending recession, as the U.S. economy shows resilience [4][3] Employment and Inflation - The employment market is facing downward risks, with July's non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations and previous months' data being significantly revised downwards, indicating potential overestimation of current employment figures [2][3] - Inflation risks are considered manageable in the short term, with the impact of tariffs expected to be gradual rather than immediate, thus supporting the case for a rate cut [3] - The labor market's downward pressure, influenced by tightening immigration policies, may also help to suppress inflation, further justifying the anticipated rate cut [3] Economic Indicators - The report notes that key economic indicators such as retail and industrial production suggest that the U.S. economy remains robust, with a low likelihood of a recession in the near term [4][26] - The labor participation rate is declining, which may lead to a higher actual unemployment rate than currently reported, complicating the Federal Reserve's data-dependent policy approach [10][12] - The financial conditions in the U.S. are currently easing, which may support continued economic growth and limit the need for aggressive rate cuts [15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - EB2510 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,330 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the fundamentals of styrene remain weak, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement in September and the expectation of rectification in the oil and chemical industry provide some support for the October contract, resulting in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Technically, EB2510 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,500 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,330 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 318,745. The closing price of the November contract was 7,342 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 351,235, a decrease of 60,572. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 23,439 lots, a decrease of 10,967, and the short position was 17,766 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 688, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,594 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 899.5 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China intermediate price was 909.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,510 yuan/ton, 7,375 yuan/ton, 7,525 yuan/ton, and 7,375 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 831 US dollars/ton, 744.67 US dollars/ton, 822.5 US dollars/ton, and 457 US dollars/ton respectively, with some price changes. The prices of pure benzene in different regions also had corresponding changes [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.53%, an increase of 0.35%. The national inventory was 206,476 tons, a decrease of 2,241 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 161,500 tons, and the trade inventory was 76,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 60.98%, 71.1%, 57.5%, 34%, and 68.16% respectively, with some changes [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, China's styrene factory output was 370,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, a year - on - year increase of 0.35%. The consumption of downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 270,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. As of August 21st, the sample inventory of styrene factories was 206,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [2] 3.7 Outlook - This week, domestic styrene plants are expected to operate stably, and the high - production state of the industry may continue. Multiple large - scale plants will be under centralized maintenance in September, which may relieve the supply pressure. The downstream industry has both shutdown and restarting plants, and the terminal demand lacks positive factors, so styrene consumption is difficult to increase significantly. The situation of supply exceeding demand in the spot market is expected to continue, and the inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited, and the recent international oil price has rebounded, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices [2]

Group 1 - The current expected decrease in oil prices is 205 yuan/ton, which is a reduction of 10 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, translating to a drop of 0.16-0.19 yuan per liter, exceeding the downward adjustment threshold [1][3] - International oil prices showed a slight recovery last Friday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rising by 0.46% to $63.77 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.34% to $67.26 per barrel [3] - The upcoming oil price adjustment is scheduled for August 26 at 24:00, with significant regional price variations for different gasoline and diesel types [4] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the decline of the US dollar index are influencing oil price movements [3] - Market analysts suggest that potential ceasefire negotiations remain uncertain, and progress is slower than market expectations [3] - The Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish signals have raised expectations for a rate cut in September, which may boost short-term oil demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated increasing downside risks to employment and suggested that tariff impacts on inflation may be one-time events, implying a potential adjustment in policy stance [1][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell described the labor market as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, which raises concerns about potential job losses and rising unemployment rates [1]. - He noted that while inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging situation for policy decisions [4]. Monetary Policy Implications - Powell's remarks have strengthened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the probability of such a move rising to around 92% immediately after his speech [4][5]. - Analysts believe that Powell's statements signal a consensus within the Fed for policy adjustments, with employment risks becoming a key trigger for changes [5][6]. Internal Fed Dynamics - There are significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate adjustments, with some officials expressing skepticism about the need for a rate cut in September [7][8]. - Despite these divisions, Powell's prioritization of employment risks suggests that disagreements may affect the pace of rate cuts rather than the direction [8]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell indicated a shift in the Fed's monetary policy framework, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" adopted in 2020, which is no longer deemed suitable given current inflation levels [9]. - This adjustment allows the Fed more flexibility to prioritize employment over inflation targets when conflicts arise, potentially reshaping capital flows and providing opportunities for emerging market assets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report by ING analyst Chris Turner indicates that the euro is declining due to a stronger dollar and diminishing hopes for a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Thursday exceeded expectations, leading the market to reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which in turn strengthened the dollar [1] - If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole further encourages the market to lower the probability of a September rate cut, the euro may continue its downward trend towards 1.1500 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Efforts by former President Trump to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not made progress, contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding the euro [1]

哈玛克讲话前，周四稍早，今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也在杰克逊霍尔年会现场表态，他对广泛预期的9月降息表现犹豫。 本周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话前，已有美联储官员表现出不看好下月降息的态度，似乎在给期待鲍威尔释放降息信号的人"打预防 针"。 美东时间21日周四，两名美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔年会当地接收采访。其中，明年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表 示，从现有的经济数据看，FOMC可能并不会在9月降息。她还说，如果明天就要做决定，她不会支持降息。 美股早盘尾声时，哈玛克不支持很快降息的讲话传出后，美国国债收益率集体加速上行。 基准10年期美国国债的收益率升约4.7个基点，接近4.34%，美股午盘进一步升至4.34%上方。对利率前景更敏感的2年期美债收益率升超4.6个基点，升破 3.80%，接近三周来高位。 施密德说，他并不确信美联储在降低通胀方面取得了足够的进展。他估计，通胀水平可能更接近3%而不是2%，美联储在实现2%的通胀目标方面仍有工作要 做。 施密德特别强调了实现通胀目标面对的挑战。他说："最后一英里似乎很困难，我和很多人都认为，系 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure and oscillating, with significant resistance in the upper trading range. The aluminum and alumina markets are maintaining a shock. The zinc market lacks effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors, with insufficient directionality. The lead market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions. The nickel and stainless - steel market shows different trends, with nickel in the middle - late stage of rebound and stainless - steel seeing inventory reduction and supply increase expectations. The tin market is supported by the MA60 moving average, and the lithium carbonate market has strong price trends. The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets have limited fundamental improvements [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: Sino - British tariff policies have a short - term impact. The market is still speculating on a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The UK inflation shows differentiation, and consumer confidence turns down [1]. - **Domestic Consumption**: High - price fluctuations of Shanghai copper affect downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by the power grid. The output of recycled copper is affected by policies, and the market is not optimistic about copper consumption in mid - August [1]. - **Trend**: The upper trading resistance of the copper market is significant, and it is expected that Shanghai copper will trade between 78,000 - 79,600 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: Ore prices in Guinea are stable. The domestic smelting cost is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a new high, and the inventory has increased. The spot index is declining, and the futures are weakly oscillating [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons with low elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 90.5% [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is maintaining a shock, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market and Supply**: The rebound momentum of LME zinc is still weak. The supply pressure is relatively high due to the continuous realization of domestic and foreign mine increments and the high - level by - product prices [1]. - **Demand and Capital**: Demand continues to show weak characteristics. The market tends to trade the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the macro - trading sentiment is repeated [1]. - **Trend**: There is a lack of effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors. There is room to short - sell mine profits on the disk, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Supply**: Both domestic and foreign lead prices are under pressure at the 40 - day moving average. The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the primary lead production is active. The secondary lead production capacity is seriously excessive [1]. - **Consumption**: Affected by multiple factors, the consumption in the peak season is insufficient. Pay attention to the improvement of battery orders from scattered customers [1]. - **Trend**: The disk capital congestion is low. There is a possibility of a short - term return of long positions. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Market and Demand**: The stainless - steel market has seen improved transactions due to factors such as approaching the consumption peak season and low arrivals. However, the supply is expected to increase in August [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The spot premiums of different types of nickel vary. The ferro - nickel inventory is basically flat, the pure nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased but remains at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: Nickel is in the middle - late stage of rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [1]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price continued to decline last week, with resistance at $34,000 for LME tin and Shanghai tin weighted in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: There is no new news about tin ore. Domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at low levels, and the market is observing the production plans of leading enterprises [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the peak season in China, with "seeking re - melting" and replenishing inventory. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Trend**: Supported by the MA60 moving average, the tin price has a risk of rising in the long - term, and it is advisable to hold long positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures market has high sentiment and large differences between long and short positions. The spot market has price increases, and the supply is affected by mine suspension [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream cathode material factories are preparing for the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional sales season, and the production has started to increase this month [1]. - **Trend**: The price trend is strong, and it is advisable to adopt a short - term long strategy with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: It is oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton, driven by lithium carbonate and polysilicon production [1]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large - scale factories have resumed production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan maintain low operating rates [1]. - **Inventory**: The SIBN inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 565,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon field has increased production, and the organic silicon market has new orders. There may be an increase in production during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The sentiment is strong in the short - term, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: There is strong support below 50,000 yuan/ton, and resistance appears at 63,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: The production in August may exceed 130,000 tons. The export - related goods are basically finished, and the production and prices of battery cells and components are under pressure [1]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 1,900 lots to 5,600 lots, and the factory inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 242,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The high - inventory pattern of spot goods suppresses price increases. There are long - buying opportunities below 50,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the previous short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options with an exercise price of 17,000 yuan for the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract at a low level. There are opportunities in put option end - of - cycle trading [1].