Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Plastic - Market expectations are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of high production capacity, low profit, and weak demand. It is expected that the plastic 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7100 [4]. PP - Inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price, but the supply - side benefits are offset, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation exerts great pressure on the market. It is expected that PP2509 will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the short term, with a reference range of 6850 - 7200 [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE average price was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%. HDPE average price was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7414.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The LLDPE South China basis was 348.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.10%, and the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27) [4][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PE was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 77.41%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 59.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The maintenance loss this week was 12.04 tons, a decrease of 1.47 tons from last week [4]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 12.89%, a decrease of 0.09% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.89%, an increase of 0.30% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.83%, a decrease of 1.00% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 58.27 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week [4]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 6 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 8 yuan/ton (a change of 35 yuan/ton); the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27); the 9 - 1 month spread was 29 yuan/ton (- 8) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions of polyethylene showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [16][17]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [19]. - **Profit**: It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate increased, and the output increased slightly. There were many maintenance losses this week [25]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [27]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises had equipment maintenance, with different parking and start - up times [28]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film peak season has passed, and the start - up rates of packaging film and pipes are average. The market trading atmosphere is light [29]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: The production ratio of linear film is the highest, and there are differences between the current ratios of some products and the annual average levels [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises decreased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 5254 hands, a decrease of 5 hands from last week [42]. PP Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The polypropylene market first fell and then rose this week, with the price center of gravity moving slightly downward and the amplitude narrowing [46]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PP was 31.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.54 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 914.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.95 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.44%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 75.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.57% [6]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 50.01% (- 0.28%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 44.70% (- 0.50%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.41% (+ 0.65%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 56.09% (- 0.08%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.13% (- 0.14%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory was 60.51 tons (+ 9.36%), with an overall increase in inventory pressure. The inventory of two major oil companies increased by 11.03% month - on - month, the inventory of traders increased by 8.45% month - on - month, and the port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month [6]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of different PP products and related products showed different changes [47]. - **Basis**: On June 6, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7380 yuan/ton (- 13.33), with a slight month - on - month increase. The PP basis was 455 yuan/ton (- 63), and the basis strengthened. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the month spread widened [49]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 9 yuan/ton (a change of 24 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (1); the 9 - 1 month spread was 48 yuan/ton (- 25) [56]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP and coal - based PP decreased [60]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate decreased, but the output of pellets and powder increased [64]. - **2025 Second - Quarter Production Plan**: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in the second quarter of 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 427.5 [68]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines have long - term or short - term maintenance, with many of the start - up times undetermined [70]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the start - up rates of different industries showed different changes [72]. - **Demand (Product Proportion)**: The proportions of different PP products showed different changes [75]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - 569.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.34 US dollars/ton from last week. The export profit was 6.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.52 US dollars/ton from last week. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [76]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory increased, and the inventories of different sectors all increased. The finished product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises decreased, and the BOPP raw material inventory decreased [78][81]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 6, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 4885 hands, a decrease of 149 hands from last week [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefins has been alleviated due to increased plant maintenance, new capacity from Huizhou ExxonMobil, and the "China-US tariff" benefit. However, the inventory of polyolefin producers has accumulated significantly, leading to high de-stocking pressure. The market may trade based on the "rush to export" logic, and downstream demand may improve in the future. The seasonal decline in agricultural film production is observed, while the operating rates of other industries remain stable, mainly driven by rigid demand. With the significant drop in crude oil prices, the cost support for polyolefins is weak. The production profit of PDH-based PP is slightly in the red, and there are many PDH plants under maintenance. Future attention should be paid to the restart plans of PDH plants [2] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for plastics on a single-side basis, and no cross-period strategy is proposed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,298 yuan/ton (-41), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,161 yuan/ton (-32). The spot price of LL in North China is 7,430 yuan/ton (+30), and in East China is 7,450 yuan/ton (+50). The spot price of PP in East China is 7,250 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is 132 yuan/ton (+71), in East China is 152 yuan/ton (+91), and the basis of PP in East China is 89 yuan/ton (+32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 79.5% (-4.5%), and the operating rate of PP is 76.6% (-3.2%). The oil-based production profit of PE is 515.8 yuan/ton (+141.7), the oil-based production profit of PP is 125.8 yuan/ton (+141.7), and the production profit of PDH-based PP is -273.7 yuan/ton (-7.1) [1] 3. Non-standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - Not provided in the given content 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - The import profit of LL is -81.8 yuan/ton (+13.3), the import profit of PP is -361.9 yuan/ton (-123.4), and the export profit of PP is 12.2 US dollars/ton (-6.1) [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit of Polyolefins - The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 16.7% (-2.8%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.7% (+1.1%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 45.3% (+0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 59.9% (+2.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of polyolefin producers has accumulated significantly, and the de-stocking pressure is high, but specific inventory data is not provided [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs exceeded market expectations, leading to an improved market trading atmosphere and a slight rebound in polyolefins. Currently, the cost support for polyolefins is weak, and the production profit of PDH-made PP remains largely in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, with undetermined restart times, and there is still an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new unit of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production, and among the existing units, more PE units have been shut down, resulting in a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased slightly. The polyolefin market faces significant supply pressure. Polyolefin producers' inventories have accumulated significantly, and there is a large pressure to reduce inventory. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has decreased seasonally, while the operating rates of other industries have remained stable, with mainly rigid demand for procurement [2]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract was 7,187 yuan/ton (+97), and the closing price of the PP main contract was 7,074 yuan/ton (+44). The spot price of LL in North China was 7,230 yuan/ton (+20), and in East China was 7,300 yuan/ton (+70). The spot price of PP in East China was 7,200 yuan/ton (+40). The basis of LL in North China was 43 yuan/ton (-77), the basis of LL in East China was 113 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of PP in East China was 126 yuan/ton (-4) [1]. II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), and the PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). The production profit of PE from oil was 416.8 yuan/ton (-101.4), the production profit of PP from oil was 106.8 yuan/ton (-101.4), and the production profit of PP from PDH was -429.9 yuan/ton (+95.5) [1]. III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data on polyolefin non-standard price differences are provided in the report. IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profit of LL was -187.6 yuan/ton (-20.0), the import profit of PP was -301.1 yuan/ton (+0.0), and the export profit of PP was 26.0 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The operating rate of the agricultural film industry downstream of PE was 19.4% (-4.0%), the operating rate of the packaging film industry downstream of PE was 47.6% (-0.3%), the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry downstream of PP was 44.8% (-0.2%), and the operating rate of the BOPP film industry downstream of PP was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1]. VI. Polyolefin Inventories - Polyolefin producers' inventories have accumulated significantly, and there is a large pressure to reduce inventory, but no specific inventory data are provided [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter-period: None [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: May 7, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but there are some bullish factors such as strong basis and inventory reduction. The market is expected to be volatile today [4][6]. Group 4: LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March, both at recent lows. The central bank's statement on "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" has increased market expectations for loose liquidity, but it will take time to transmit to real demand. OPEC+ announced production increases starting in June, weakening the cost support for oil-based polyolefins. In the second quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, the peak season for agricultural films has ended, and overall demand has declined. Affected by tariffs, the export demand for products is expected to weaken. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-20) [4]. Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 363, with a premium ratio of 5.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.7 tons (-11.2), showing a bullish sign [4]. Market - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. Main Position - The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With the decline in PMI data, OPEC's production increase and the weakening of oil prices, and the off-season for agricultural film demand, the industrial chain inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will be volatile today [4]. Group 5: PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the fundamentals of PP are also bearish. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7300 (-50). The anti - countermeasures will increase the cost of imported propane, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently. Affected by tariffs, the export demand for products is expected to weaken [6]. Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 305, with a premium ratio of 4.4%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.4 tons (-4.0), showing a bullish sign [6]. Market - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With the decline in PMI data, OPEC's production increase and the weakening of oil prices, and the rigid demand, the industrial chain inventory is moderate. It is expected that PP will be volatile today [6]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a growth rate ranging from 5.1% to 19.0%. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, with some fluctuations in the growth rate [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has been increasing, with a growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 19.0%. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, with a relatively stable growth rate [15].

期货研究报告|聚烯烃周报 2025-04-27 埃克森美孚投产，新装置持续放量 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 下游需求方面，聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端 工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。 ■ 策略 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 惠州埃克森美孚一期 50 LLDPE 装置、48 万吨/年 PP 装置与 47.5 万吨/年 PP 装置成功投 产，预计未来新装置持续放量，PE 供应维持偏高，而 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-4-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • PP概述： • 利多 • 1、近期需求回暖 • 利空 • 1、新产能集中投放 • 2、加征关税影响需求 • 3、原油走弱 • 主要逻辑：新产能投放，宏观政策 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、美方政策风险 • 1. 基本面：3月官方PMI为 50.5%，较2月上升0.3个百分点，3月财新PMI录得 51.2%，较2月上 升0.4个百分点，数据表现良好。宏观方面，OPEC+4月3日宣布增产超出市场预期，特朗普对等关 税实施，清明期间原油大幅下跌，成本端带动价格中枢下行。二季度新产能投放仍较为集中，产 业链库存中性，需求端方面，农膜整体开工下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求预计减弱。当前LL交 割品现货 ...