Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.244, UK 4.543, France 3.427, Germany 2.856, Italy 3.464, Spain 3.220, Switzerland 0.228, Greece 3.466, Japan 2.234, Brazil 6.205, China 1.814, Australia 4.814, New Zealand 4.628 [2] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.573, UK 3.735, Germany 2.096, Japan 1.242, Italy 2.148, China (1Y yield) 1.292, Australia 4.189 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.197, South Africa zar 15.773, South Korean won 1436.250, Thai baht 31.052, Malaysian ringgit 3.920 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.948, off - shore RMB 6.944, RMB central parity rate 6.976, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.815 [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6978.030, Dow Jones Industrial Average 49015.600, NASDAQ 23857.450, Mexican stock index 69959.730, UK stock index 10154.430, French CAC 8066.680, German DAX 24822.790, Spanish stock index 17607.600, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53358.710, Hang Seng Index 27826.910, Shanghai Composite Index 4151.238, Taiwan stock index 32803.820, South Korean stock index 5170.810, Indian stock index 8320.556, Thai stock index 1338.900, Malaysian stock index 1756.490, Australian stock index 9250.602, emerging - economy stock index 1556.800 [2] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.587, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 413.360 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4151.24 (up 0.27%), CSI 300 closing price 4717.99 (up 0.26%), SSE 50 closing price 3060.56 (up 0.27%), ChiNext closing price 3323.56 (down 0.57%), CSI 500 closing price 8601.16 (up 0.61%) [3] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.20 (up 0.06), SSE 50 11.67 (up 0.04), CSI 500 38.95 (up 0.25), S&P 500 27.87 (unchanged), German DAX 19.26 (down 0.06) [3] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.66 (unchanged), German DAX 2.34 (up 0.04) [3] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1539.22, 5 - day average - 1092.50; Main - board latest value - 940.00, 5 - day average - 842.94; ChiNext latest value - 483.26, 5 - day average - 201.04; CSI 300 latest value - 581.72, 5 - day average - 527.18 [3] Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 29654.10 (up 704.28), CSI 300 latest value 8294.14 (up 1141.46), SSE 50 latest value 2526.23 (up 502.96), Small - and - medium - sized board latest value 5584.64 (up 21.30), ChiNext latest value 7441.76 (down 8.67) [4] - Main contract basis: IF basis 14.81 (0.31%), IH basis 9.24 (0.30%), IC basis 20.84 (0.24%) [4] - Treasury - bond futures: T2303 closing price 108.21 (up 0.02%), TF2303 closing price 105.87 (up 0.03%), T2306 closing price 108.19 (up 0.02%), TF2306 closing price 105.92 (up 0.03%) [4] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4381% (down 19.00 BP), R007 1.6122% (down 2.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5947% (down 1.00 BP) [4]

Report Title - "Policy Stabilizes Rhythm, Short - term Volatility: Stock Index Weekly Report 2026/01/17" [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, driving the market to rise rapidly. This week, policies tightened to stabilize the market rhythm. The long - term policy orientation is still a slow - bull market. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The CSRC aims to maintain market stability and crack down on illegal activities; China has 200,000 new satellite applications; stock exchanges raise the minimum margin ratio for margin trading; the central bank cuts re - loan and rediscount rates; TSMC plans a 2026 capital expenditure of $52 - 56 billion [12] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In November 2025, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, retail sales rose by 1.3%, and fixed - asset investment fell by 2.6%. December's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1. In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 was 8.5%, and social financing increment was 220.75 billion yuan. December's US dollar - denominated exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, with a 4.4% unemployment rate [12] - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: This week, 10Y Treasury bond and credit bond interest rates declined, and the credit spread widened. Liquidity became stable at the beginning of the year [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [14] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.00%, etc [17] - **Futures Contract Performance**: IF, IH contracts generally fell, while IC, IM contracts generally rose [18] 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q3 2025, GDP real growth was 4.8%. In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1. In November 2025, consumption growth was 1.3%, investment growth was - 2.6%. In December, US dollar - denominated exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year [40][43][46] - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 Q3 report, operating income growth was 1.24% year - on - year, and net profit growth was 3.89% year - on - year [49] 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: 10Y Treasury bond and 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rates are presented in the report. Liquidity and the relationship between Chinese and US interest rates are also analyzed [53][58] - **Credit Environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 was 8.5%. Social financing increment was 220.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64.62 billion yuan [64] 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This week, about 13.363 billion new equity - focused fund shares were established, and the two - market margin trading balance increased by about 91.295 billion yuan, with the latest balance at 270.1216 billion yuan [72][75] - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 164 yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 1 [78] 6. Valuation - **PE (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.74, CSI 300 was 14.22, CSI 500 was 37.38, and CSI 1000 was 49.92 - **PB (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.29, CSI 300 was 1.50, CSI 500 was 2.57, and CSI 1000 was 2.66 [83]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the capital market has shown a slight contraction, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising to around 1.30%. The central bank's open - market operations have multiple large - scale reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day winning streak, and the trading volume of the three major stock markets reached a record high. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers. [5] - After the recent strong and volume - expanding breakthrough of the stock index, the market capital is abundant, opening up a new upward space. With the positive feedback of macro - fundamental data, it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment. In the long run, the stock index in 2026 is expected to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly go long and give priority to far - month contracts. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.39, up 6.47bp; DR007 closed at 1.55, up 5.72bp; GC001 closed at 1.47, down 11bp; GC007 closed at 1.56, down 3bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged. The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.24, up 0.25bp; the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60, up 0.25bp; the 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.86, down 1.05bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.19, up 1bp. [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were 358.6 billion yuan each. With 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day, the net investment on the day was 342.4 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 Stock Index and Futures - **Stock Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4761, down 0.60%; the SSE 50 closed at 3133, down 0.34%; the CSI 500 closed at 8143, down 1.28%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8203, down 1.84%. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: IF current - month contract closed at 4766, down 0.5%; IH current - month contract closed at 3137, down 0.2%; IC current - month contract closed at 8173, down 1.2%; IM current - month contract closed at 8234, down 1.9%. [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF trading volume was 172,729, up 10.7%; IF open interest was 307,410, up 1.8%; IH trading volume was 67,378, up 24.7%; IH open interest was 94,858, up 3.4%; IC trading volume was 212,314, up 4.4%; IC open interest was 317,086, up 2.0%; IM trading volume was 305,102, up 2.2%; IM open interest was 401,618, down 0.4%. [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different premium and discount rates. For example, IF current - month contract had a premium/discount rate of 2.25%, and some contracts had significant discount rates. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly offers data on global asset market performance, stock index futures trading, and bond futures trading. 3. Directory - Based Summaries Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.177, UK 4.372, France 3.505, Germany 2.840, etc. [2] - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 2 - year treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 3.535, UK 3.650, Germany 2.093, etc. [2] - **Exchange Rates**: Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies are provided, such as 5.375 against the Brazilian currency, 16.390 against the South African rand, etc. [2] - **Stock Indices**: Latest values of major economy stock indices are given, including S&P 500 at 6977.270, Dow Jones Industrial Index at 49590.200, etc. [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: Values of credit bond indices in different regions are presented, like US investment - grade credit bond index at 3546.240, Euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index at 266.750, etc. [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 4165.29 with a 1.09% increase,沪深300 at 4789.92 with a 0.65% increase, etc. [3] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values are reported, such as 14.48 for 沪深300, 12.04 for 上证50, etc., along with their环比变化. [3] - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data and their环比变化 are provided for some indices, e.g., - 0.59 for S&P 500 with a - 0.02环比变化. [3] - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different sectors are given, like 285.89 for A - shares, - 117.28 for the main board, etc. [3] Bond Futures Trading Data - **Stock Index Futures**:成交金额 and环比变化 are reported for 沪深两市, 沪深300, etc.主力升贴水 data for IF, IH, IC are also provided. [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Closing prices and percentage changes for T2303, TF2303, etc. are presented. [4] - **Funding Rates**: R001 is at 1.3895% with a - 13.00 BP日度变化, R007 at 1.5249% with no change, etc. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by the resonance of capital and fundamental factors. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue the upward trend, supported by continuous policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, and capital market reform policies [3]. - It is recommended that investors opportunistically establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts**: - Economic and corporate profits: Inflation is moderately rising, with CPI and PPI showing positive trends, which is slightly positive for the stock index [3]. - Macro - policies: The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds in 2026 have been issued, with subsidy policies for various consumer goods, which is slightly positive [3]. - Overseas factors: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has significantly decreased, which is slightly negative [3]. - Liquidity: Post - holiday market trading volume has significantly expanded, with sufficient funds promoting a strong rise in the stock index, which is positive [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint and Strategy**: - Investment view: Opportunistically go long in the short - term and continue to be bullish on the stock index in 2026 [3]. - Trading strategy: Opportunistically go long in the single - side trading, and pay attention to overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 2.79% to 4758.9; the Shanghai 50 rose 3.4% to 3134.3; the CSI 500 rose 7.92% to 8056.7; the CSI 1000 rose 7.03% to 8129.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the corresponding indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Industry Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indexes, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer industries led the gains, while only the banking industry declined [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased to varying degrees [11]. - **Spread Performance**: The spreads between different indexes and different contract months of futures showed different levels of premium or discount [13]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week (January 5 - 9), the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1221.4 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturing [24]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of January 8, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2612.22 billion yuan, an increase of 79.51 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.4% of the total market trading volume, at the 98.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 652.17 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Profits - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In December 2025, China's economic indicators showed different trends, such as an increase in GDP, changes in industrial added value, investment, consumption, and employment data [33]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction investment showed different development trends [35][37][38][39]. - **PMI Indicators**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI both showed positive changes, indicating an improvement in the economic situation [41]. - **Corporate Profit Indicators**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different levels of performance [46][47]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Macro - policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced, including more active fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and policies to support housing consumption and promote consumption [51][52][53]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In December 2024, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the number of new non - farm payrolls decreased. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [64][66][67]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations [73][75][77][79]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of January 9, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4 times, 12 times, 36.4 times, and 49.4 times respectively, at different quantile levels since October 2014 [82]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors showed different levels of price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their corresponding historical quantile levels [87].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.150%, UK 4.415%, France 3.521%, Germany 2.849%, Italy 3.514%, Spain 3.251%, Switzerland 0.241%, Greece 3.379%, Japan 2.116%, Brazil 6.234%, China 1.892%, Australia 4.758%, New Zealand 4.492% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.472%, UK 3.673%, Germany 2.088%, Japan 1.162%, Italy 2.200%, China (1Y yield) 1.339%, Australia 4.078% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil (latest 5.389), Russia (-), South Africa zar 16.453, Korean won 1448.250, Thai baht 31.280, Malaysian ringgit 4.058 [3] - The latest exchange rates related to the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.992, off - shore RMB 6.994, RMB mid - price 7.019, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.871 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6920.930, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48996.080, Nasdaq 23584.280, Mexican stock index 64871.700, UK stock index 10048.210, France CAC 8233.920, Germany DAX 25122.260, Spanish stock index 17596.400, Russian stock index (-), Nikkei 51961.980, Hang Seng Index 26458.950, Shanghai Composite Index 4085.772, Taiwan stock index 30435.470, Korean stock index 4551.060, Indian stock index 8944.813, Thai stock index 1280.820, Malaysian stock index 1676.830, Australian stock index 9017.996, emerging - economy stock index 1462.970 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3549.910, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.569, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.690, US high - yield credit - bond index 2923.370, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 411.980, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1826.798 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - shares' closing price is 4085.77 with a 0.05% change; CSI 300's closing price is 4776.67 with a - 0.29% change; SSE 50's closing price is 3145.12 with a - 0.43% change; ChiNext's closing price is 3329.69 with a 0.31% change; CSI 500's closing price is 7875.08 with a 0.78% change [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.44 with a - 0.08 change; SSE 50 is 12.05 with a - 0.08 change; CSI 500 is 35.66 with a 0.28 change; S&P 500 is 27.64 with a - 0.10 change; Germany DAX is 19.49 with a 0.18 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.53 with a 0.04 change; Germany DAX is 2.28 with a - 0.06 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - shares' fund flow is - 1026.33, the main board is - 902.23, the ChiNext is - 175.31, and the CSI 300 is - 368.61. The 5 - day average of A - shares is - 99.55, the main board is - 174.28, the ChiNext is 38.66, and the CSI 300 is 60.80 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 28541.41 with a 476.34 change; CSI 300 is 6648.98 with a - 605.17 change; SSE 50 is 1693.07 with a - 107.41 change; small - and - medium - sized board is 6082.81 with a 347.24 change; ChiNext is 7569.99 with a 4.70 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF's basis is - 23.67 with a - 0.50% spread; IH's basis is - 1.32 with a - 0.04% spread; IC's basis is - 72.48 with a - 0.92% spread [5] - Treasury futures: T2303's closing price is 107.61 with a - 0.08% change; TF2303 is 105.50 with a - 0.07% change; T2306 is 107.56 with a - 0.09% change; TF2306 is 105.49 with a - 0.08% change [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3365% with a - 15.00 BP change; R007 is 1.5323% with a 4.00 BP change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5970% with a 0.00 BP change [5]

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.26 with a 2.07 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.26 bp increase, GC001 at 1.74 with a 173.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.57 with a 156.50 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.32 with a 1.80 bp increase, 5 - year at 1.62 with a 1.00 bp increase, 10 - year at 1.83 with a 1.70 bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 0.00 with no change [3] - The central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operation rate of 1.40%, and 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan [3] - This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases will mature on Thursday, and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Friday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7, the CSI 500 rose 2.49% to 7651.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.09% to 7753.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 28326 billion yuan, an increase of 2651 billion yuan [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with only the beauty and care sector falling [6] - In the short term, the stock index may continue its strong trend, and in 2026, it is expected to rise further on the basis of 2025 [7] - It is recommended that investors choose to build long positions [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Domestic factors have a generally positive impact on the stock index, including improved fundamental data, policy support, good liquidity, and high market risk - appetite [6] - In December 2025, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range [6] - In 2026, the "two new" policies were clearly implemented, and the scope of equipment renewal support was broadened [6] - Before the festival, the trading activity of A - shares increased significantly, and the margin trading balance increased [6] - During the festival, the Hong Kong stock market and the A50 index performed actively, and the RMB exchange rate strengthened [6]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index has risen with increased trading volume and may continue its strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk preference. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025 due to continuous macro - policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, capital market reform policies, and the supporting role of Central Huijin. It is recommended that investors mainly choose to build long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Financial Market Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price and change of various interest rate varieties are presented. For example, DROO1 is at 1.26 with a 2.07bp increase, GC001 is at 1.49 with a - 37.50bp decrease, etc. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The closing price and change of different - term treasury bonds are given. The 1 - year treasury bond is at 1.32 with a 1.80bp increase, and the 10 - year treasury bond is at 1.83 with a - 1.70bp decrease. The 10 - year US Treasury bond is at 4.19 with a 1.00bp increase [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 4688 billion yuan. This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Thursday and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits on Friday [3][4] Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are reported. The CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, and the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7. The trading volume of the two markets reached 25675 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5016 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with insurance, medical devices, etc. leading the gains [5] - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices, daily changes, trading volumes, and open interests of stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, IF's closing price is 4714 with a 2.0% increase, and its trading volume increased by 20.0% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, including next - month, current - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts. For example, IF's next - month contract has a premium rate of 2.63% [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - The report lists the latest data of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, dollar - to - major emerging - economy currency exchange rates, on - shore and off - shore RMB, major economy stock indices, and credit - bond indices. However, all the latest values are marked as "-" [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A股 closed at 4023.42 with a 1.38% increase,沪深300 at 4717.75 with a 1.90% increase,上证50 at 3099.75 with a 2.26% increase,创业板 at 3294.55 with a 2.85% increase, and中证500 at 7651.20 with a 2.49% increase [3]. - Valuation: PE(TTM) of沪深300 is 14.33 with a 0.16环比 change,上证50 is 11.98 with a 0.13环比 change, and中证500 is 34.67 with a 0.87环比 change [3]. - Risk premium: No valid data provided for 1/PE - 10利率 and its环比 change [3]. - Fund flow: The latest value of A股 fund flow is 778.45,主板 is 177.68,创业板 is 398.72, and沪深300 is 368.04. The 5 - day average is - 258.09 for A股, - 275.95 for主板, 4.23 for创业板, and 48.13 for沪深300 [3]. Transaction Amount and Other Data - Transaction amount: The latest values of沪深两市,沪深300,上证50,中小板, and创业板 are 25462.71, 6305.77, 1695.62, 5236.93, and 6962.18 respectively, with环比 changes of 5011.29, 1860.85, 618.94, 834.18, and 1525.26 [4]. - Main contract basis: The basis of IF is - 20.75 (- 0.44%), IH is - 0.95 (- 0.03%), and IC is - 55.20 (- 0.72%) [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures: T2303 closed at 107.86 with a 0.00% change, TF2303 at 105.71 with a - 0.05% change, T2306 at 107.85 with a - 0.03% change, and TF2306 at 105.72 with a - 0.02% change [4]. Money Market - Fund rates: R001 is 1.3315% with a - 83.00 BP daily change, R007 is 1.4861% with a - 67.00 BP daily change, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5960% with a 0.00 BP daily change [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In January 2026, the stock index is more likely to continue its upward trend, but the upside space is limited by the performance verification results and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut expectations. The core drivers are the marginal loosening of the capital market after the new year and the continuous policy support. Key variables focus on the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman and the end - of - January interest - rate meeting. The A - share market has a relatively high valuation, and a callback in high - valuation sectors may occur if the performance forecast fails to meet expectations. In terms of style, large - cap stock indices are relatively dominant [2]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. Accumulating Momentum and Oscillating before Another Upturn No relevant content provided. 2. Core Influencing Factors of the January Stock Index: Performance Verification and Fed Game 2.1 Performance Forecast Disclosure Window, Earnings Verification Affects Valuation Sustainability As of December 2025, the PE - TTM of CSI 50 was 11.85, with a percentile of 88.38% and a historical percentile of 89.64%; for CSI 300, it was 14.18, 91.33%, and 87.08% respectively; for CSI 500, it was 33.91, 98.57%, and 82.37%; for CSI 1000, it was 46.71, 94.04%, and 69.29% [13]. 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Disturbance: Replacement + Interest - Rate Meeting as Core Variables As of January 1, 2026, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% in January is 85.1%. The probability that the market expects the interest - rate decision to remain unchanged in the January interest - rate meeting is 51.7%. Employment data before the January interest - rate meeting may affect the market's interest - rate cut expectations. If the employment data shows an unexpected downward risk in employment, it will increase the expectation of an interest - rate cut and provide more impetus for domestic stock indices [14][15]. 2.3 Liquidity Loosening + Policy Expectations Escort, Strengthening Stock Index Drivers After the new year, market liquidity shows a marginal loosening trend. The release of previously tightened liquidity after the bank's year - end assessment and the absence of pre - holiday capital withdrawal pressure in January are conducive to keeping market capital interest rates low. The new - year layout of public funds and the position adjustment of social security funds are expected to form an incremental capital force, which is beneficial for the stock index's valuation repair and the development of a structural market [17]. 3. Outlook for the Future No relevant content provided.