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宏观金融数据日报-20251217
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 05:53
投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.27 | 0.05 | DR007 | 1.45 | 0.48 | | | GC001 | 1.69 | 19.00 | GC007 | 1.57 | 2.00 | | 1 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.40 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.63 | -0.10 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.78 | -6.30 | 10年期美债 | 4.17 | -2.20 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1353亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量1353亿元,中 ...
中天期货:商品指数下跌回落 玻璃低位震荡
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 09:05
热点品种分析 一、商品指数 二、股指 中国上证综指12月16日(周二)收盘下跌43.11点,跌幅1.11%,报3824.81点; 中国深证成指12月16日(周二)收盘下跌197.42点,跌幅1.51%,报12914.67点; 中国沪深300指12月16日(周二)收盘下跌54.50点,跌幅1.20%,报4497.55点; 中国创业板指12月16日(周二)收盘下跌66.04点,跌幅2.10%,报3071.76点; 中国科创50指12月16日(周二)收盘下跌25.52点,跌幅1.94%,报1293.38点。 三、生猪2603 四、碳酸锂2605 五 玻璃2601 六、豆粕2605 七、红枣2605 八、 原油2601 九、螺纹2605 十一、棉花2605 十、白银2602 十二、棕榈2605 十三、纯碱2605 十四、焦煤2605 十五、白糖2605 十六、PVC2601 十七、PTA2605 十八、橡胶2605 责任编辑:陈平 热点品种分析 一、商品指数 二、股指 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 中国上证综指12月16日(周二)收盘下跌43.11点,跌幅1.11%,报3824.81点; 中国深证成指12月 ...
股指期货:市场进一步缩量,消费板块调整
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 01:36
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:华泰期货 作者: 汪雅航 市场分析 国内开展稀土出口管制。宏观方面,商务部召开例行新闻发布会介绍,中国政府依法依规开展稀土相关 物项出口管制工作,只要是用于民用用途的、合规的出口申请,中国政府都及时予以了批准。对外方 面,国家主席习近平同法国总统马克龙举行会谈。习近平强调,无论外部环境如何变化,中法两国都应 当在彼此核心利益和重大关切问题上相互理解和支持,维护好中法关系的政治基础。海外方面,美国上 周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人,为2022年9月以来的最低水平。 股指分化。现货市场,A股三大指数走势分化,沪指跌0.51%收于3878点,创业板指跌1.12%。行业方 面,板块指数跌多涨少,机械设备、电子、国防军工行业领涨,美容护理、社会服务、商贸零售、纺织 服饰行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额不足1.6万亿元。海外方面,美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一,纳 指涨0.22%报23505.14点。 IM基差修复。期货市场,基差方面,IC、IM的贴水持续修复。成交持仓方面,四大期指的成交量和持 仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面,PCE数据 ...
大类资产早报-20251202
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:05
Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.087, UK 4.480, France 3.484, Germany 2.749, Italy 3.468, Spain 3.226, Switzerland 0.156, Greece 3.357, Japan 1.865, Brazil 6.150, China 1.828, Australia 4.554, New Zealand 4.316 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.531, UK 3.746, Germany 2.061, Japan 1.015, Italy 2.202, China (1Y yield) 1.401, Australia 3.825 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.356, South Africa zar 17.092, Korean won 1467.250, Thai baht 31.993, Malaysian ringgit 4.132. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.076, and 6.934 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6812.630, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47289.330, Nasdaq 23275.920, Mexican stock index 63551.130, UK stock index 9702.530, France CAC 8097.000, Germany DAX 23589.440, Spanish stock index 16389.000, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 49303.280, Hang Seng Index 26033.260, Shanghai Composite Index 3914.006, Taiwan stock index 27342.530, South Korean stock index 3920.370, Indian stock index 8548.788, Thai stock index 1276.570, Malaysian stock index 1624.570, Australian stock index 8866.382, emerging - economy stock index 1368.270 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.865, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 408.600 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3914.01, 4576.49, 2993.68, 3092.50, and 7101.83 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.65%, 1.10%, 0.81%, 1.31%, and 1.00% [4] Valuation - The PE(TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.05, 11.90, 32.32, 27.08, and 18.29 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.11, 0.07, 0.29, - 0.14, and - 0.19 [4] Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.39 and 2.72 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05 and 0.00 [4] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 206.88, - 98.60, (not available), - 41.57, and 144.99 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 226.26, - 183.11, (not available), - 26.40, and 23.23 respectively [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data Stock Market - The latest trading volume and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are: total trading volume 18739.38 (with a环比 change of 2881.42), CSI 300 4638.62 (1220.30), SSE 50 1128.13 (277.81), SME board 3556.73 (458.47), ChiNext 5183.01 (615.80) [5] - The basis and basis - to - spot ratios of IF, IH, and IC are: basis - 21.09, - 7.28, - 70.23; basis - to - spot ratios - 0.46%, - 0.24%, - 0.99% [5] Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are: closing prices 108.25, 105.80, 108.04, 105.84; percentage changes 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09% [5] Fund Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3713%, 1.4931%, 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 15.00BP, - 3.00BP, 0.00BP [5]
FICC日报:股指缩量回升,通信行业领涨-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:19
FICC日报 | 2025-11-26 股指缩量回升,通信行业领涨 市场分析 美国消费动能减弱。宏观方面,国务院新闻办公室将于11月27日上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会,请工信部、 国家发改委、商务部、文化和旅游部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策 措施有关情况,并答记者问。海外方面,特朗普表示,过去一周,他的团队在结束俄乌冲突方面取得了巨大进展, 最初由美国起草的28点和平计划已经经过完善,目前仅剩少数分歧。美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%,核心PPI环比上涨 0.1%,均较前值明显加速,显示美国通胀在9月重新升温。同时,美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%,连续四个月正 增长但显著放缓,且低于市场预期,汽车销售四个月来首次下滑。 股指上涨。现货市场,A股三大指数震荡上涨,沪指涨0.87%收于3870.02点,创业板指涨1.77%。行业方面,板块 指数涨多跌少,通信、传媒、有色金属、电子行业涨幅居前,仅国防军工、交通运输行业收跌。当日沪深两市成 交额小幅回升至1.81万亿元。海外方面,美国三大股指全线收涨,道指涨1.43%报47112.45点。 IC增仓。期货市场,基差方面,股 ...
宏观金融数据日报-20251125
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 06:22
投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 对于股指来说,预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化,待 新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。同时,中央汇金的托底功能为指数提 供了缓冲,下行风险预计可控。短期可重点关注海外流动性变化信号,以 及国内政策会否提前发力。 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H | IF升贴水 | 4.22% | 4.44% | 2.97% | 3.41% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 3.05% | 2.09% | 0.98% | 1.11% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 8.79% | 9.16% | 9.26% | 10.43% | | 情 况 | IM升贴水 | 12.49% | 12.18% | 11.89% | 12.18% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水)。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人 ...
股指周报:海外扰动加剧,股指大幅调整-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are bearish, with the October economic data showing a weakening trend, including declines in investment growth and real estate prices. Inflation slightly rebounded in October [3]. - The macro - policy is neutral - bullish. The policy news is relatively quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for further monetary policy tightening in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors are neutral - bearish. Geopolitical tensions may ease marginally, and multiple Fed officials have signaled potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity is neutral, with the average daily trading volume of A - shares decreasing compared to the previous week [3]. - The investment view is weak and volatile. The A - share market lacks a clear driving force, and it is expected that market differences will be digested during the index's volatile adjustment [3]. - The trading strategy is short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logics** - Economic and corporate earnings: The 1 - 10 cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7%, infrastructure investment up 1.51%, and manufacturing investment up 2.7%. Inflation rebounded slightly in October, with CPI up 0.2% year - on - year [3]. - Macro policy: The policy news is quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for additional monetary policy in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors: Geopolitical tensions may ease, and multiple Fed officials signaled rate cuts, with the market betting the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [3]. - Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment and Trading Views** - Investment view: Weak and volatile, lacking a clear driving force, with the average daily trading volume dropping from about 2.5 trillion yuan in October to about 1.7 trillion yuan currently [3]. - Trading strategy: Short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks from domestic policies and overseas geopolitics [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance** - The CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7 last week [5]. - Most Shenwan first - level industry indices declined, with power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel leading the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 16.77%, 18.96%, 13.60%, and 14.05% respectively [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 4.16%, 8.40%, and 11.64% respectively, while that of SSE 50 futures decreased by 2.10% [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at 1497.8, in the 92.2% historical percentile; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at 250.3, in the 42% historical percentile [16]. - The CSI 300/CSI 1000 and SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratios were at 0.6, in the 43.6% and 39.5% historical percentiles respectively [16] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity** - The central bank conducted 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net injection of 13540 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury cash deposits, the net injection was 12340 billion yuan [23]. - Next week, 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 9000 billion yuan in MLF, and 3000 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading** - As of November 20, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24839.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan from the previous week [29]. - As of November 20, the margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11% of the total market trading volume, in the 93% percentile of the past decade [29]. - The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - As of November 21, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.39, in the 56.9% percentile of the past decade [29] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In October, GDP was not reported, industrial added - value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [32]. - The CPI in October was 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year [32]. - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [40]. - **Corporate Earnings** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and other indices varied in different quarters [45]. - The return on equity (TTM) of different indices also showed different trends [45] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance since the beginning of the year, including policies to promote service consumption, issue special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement, and adjust real estate purchase restrictions [50][51] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data** - The US manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous value [60]. - The US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [60]. - The US PCE and core PCE in September had a year - on - year increase of 0%, and the CPI and core CPI in September had a year - on - year increase of 3% [63]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada, and has made various remarks and actions regarding international relations and economic policies [67]
股指周报:海外扰动加剧,股指冲高回落-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - situation is a mix of positives and negatives. After the overall adjustment of the technology sector, the market lacks a core driving force. With the Shanghai Composite Index reaching the 4000 - point mark, there are differences in the market regarding whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural to a full - fledged slow - bull market. Given the pressure on the economic data in October, it is necessary to observe whether policies will be implemented in advance for hedging. It is expected that the central Huijin will continue to support the index. The stock index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with a bottom - support and upward pressure. In the short term, market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and a new driving force will bring the index to further rise. The trading strategy is to go long in the long - term, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The economic fundamentals showed a weakening trend in October, with investment growth and real - estate prices accelerating their decline. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points compared to September. Among them, real - estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year. Inflation showed a slight rebound, with the CPI year - on - year growth rate turning positive to 0.2% in October. The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose [3] - **Macro Policy**: The overall macro - policy is neutral to slightly positive. Although China's economy has shown structural differentiation this year, the overall level has maintained steady growth, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic target is not significant. Therefore, the necessity of further strengthening monetary policy in the short term is low. The current focus should be on implementing existing policies and making policy reserves for cross - cycle adjustment [3] - **Overseas Factors**: Overseas factors are negative. The Fed's stance on whether to cut interest rates in December is hawkish, and some Fed officials believe that caution is needed when interest rates are close to the neutral level. Additionally, the geopolitical situation around China has become more complex recently [3] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity is neutral. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The stock index is expected to be volatile. The trading strategy is to go long in the long - term, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.08% to 4628.1, the Shanghai 50 index remained unchanged at 3038.4, the CSI 500 index dropped 1.26% to 7235.5, and the CSI 1000 index declined 0.52% to 7502.8 [5] - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, the comprehensive (7%), textile and apparel (4.4%), commerce and retail (4.1%), pharmaceutical and biological (3.3%), and food and beverage (2.8%) sectors led the gains last week, while the communication (- 4.8%), electronics (- 4.8%), computer (- 3%), machinery and equipment (- 2.2%), and national defense and military industry (- 2.2%) sectors led the losses [9] - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures was 559,733 lots, with a 2.19% increase; the trading volume of Shanghai 50 futures was 251,251 lots, with a 2.93% increase; the trading volume of CSI 500 futures was 629,685 lots, with a 6.27% decrease; the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures was 1,031,832 lots, with a 5.55% decrease. The open interest of CSI 300 futures was 264,876 lots, with a 2.87% increase; the open interest of Shanghai 50 futures was 97,121 lots, with a 6.79% increase; the open interest of CSI 500 futures was 245,018 lots, with a 1.88% increase; the open interest of CSI 1000 futures was 357,222 lots, with a 0.22% increase [11] - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of November 14, the annualized discount of the current - month contract IF2511 was 15.93%, IH2511 was 7.59%, IC2511 was 19.79%, and IM2511 was 23.88%. The annualized discount of the next - month contract IF2512 was 6.25%, IH2512 was 2.75%, IC2512 was 14.13%, and IM2512 was 18.17%. The annualized discount of the current - quarter contract IF2603 was 3.49%, IH2603 was 1.2%, IC2603 was 11.03%, and IM2603 was 14.01%. The annualized discount of the next - quarter contract IF2606 was 3.51%, IH2606 was 1.19%, IC2606 was 11.01%, and IM2606 was 13.21% [15] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The spread between the CSI 300 and the Shanghai 50 was 1589.7, at the 94.3% historical quantile; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was 267.3, at the 43.8% historical quantile; the ratio of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 37.5% historical quantile; the ratio of the Shanghai 50 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 32.8% historical quantile [19] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funds and Macro - Liquidity**: Next week, 112.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature next Thursday. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [21] - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of November 13, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2.49864 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9 billion yuan from the previous week. As of November 13, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 12.2%, at the 97.7% quantile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.21, at the 48.6% quantile in the past decade [32] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In October, GDP growth was not provided, industrial added - value growth was 4.9%, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real - estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [35] - **Industry - Specific Data**: In the consumer goods industry, the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size showed different growth rates in various categories in October. In the manufacturing industry, different sub - sectors also had different growth rates in October [39][40] - **PMI Indicators**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decrease of 0.8 from September, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 from September [43] - **Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - Based Indexes**: As of September 30, 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and other indexes showed different trends, and the return on net assets also varied [48] - **Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Indexes**: As of September 30, 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and the return on net assets of different Shenwan primary industry indexes showed significant differences [49] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, allocate special funds for consumer goods replacement, adjust real - estate purchase restrictions, and implement consumer loan fiscal subsidy policies [53][54][55] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 from the previous value. In September, the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year growth rates were 0%, and the CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates were 3% [63][66] - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff - related measures, including imposing additional tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, and threatening to take over the Panama Canal and Greenland [70]
大类资产早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 01:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].
大类资产早报-20251111
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/11/10, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.117, with a latest change of 0.019, a one - week change of 0.006, a one - month change of 0.083, and a one - year change of - 0.168 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Different economies also show different trends. The US 2 - year treasury bond yield on 2025/11/10 was 3.570, with a latest change of - 0.060, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.540 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates have different changes. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/11/10 was 5.301, with a latest change of - 0.62%, a one - week change of - 1.07%, a one - month change of - 3.02%, and a one - year change of - 8.41% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices of various economies have different performances. For instance, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/11/10 was 6832.430, with a latest change of 0.51%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of - (not provided), and a one - year change of - (not provided) [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices have different changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a one - month change of - 0.17% and a one - year change of 0.01% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing price of A - shares was 4018.60, with a change of 0.53%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.05, with a change of 0.35% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.36, with a环比 change of 0.08. The PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 was 28.41, with a环比 change of 0.44 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.60, with a环比 change of - 0.08. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.38, with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 456.59, and the 5 - day average was - 482.23 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21744.54, with a环比 change of 1754.01 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 23.05, with a magnitude of - 0.49%. The basis of IH was 0.14, with a magnitude of 0.00% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Price and Change**: The closing price of T00 was 108.485, with a change of 0.00%. The closing price of TF00 was 105.940, with a change of 0.00% [6]. - **Funding Rate**: The R001 was 1.5226%, with a daily change of 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5039%, with a daily change of 3.00 BP [6].