1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price declined with a weekly change of -6.85% and an amplitude of 14.62%. As of the end of the week, the closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton [7]. - In 2026, the national subsidy program was officially released, with the first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods. The subsidy objects were adjusted [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, lithium ore prices rose due to high - level lithium carbonate prices. Lithium salt producers were willing to produce, resulting in a stable increase in domestic supply. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs and long - term contracts, and industrial inventories continued to be depleted [7]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market may be in a stage of stable supply growth and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position, while controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate had a weekly decline of 6.85% and an amplitude of 14.62%, with a closing price of 121,580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro - environment**: The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement was released, with 62.5 billion yuan in the first - batch of funds, and the subsidy objects were adjusted [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Lithium ore prices increased, supply grew steadily, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory continued to be depleted [7]. - **Investment Advice**: Light - position short - term long positions on dips, with attention to trading rhythms and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuated weakly. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,140 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 340 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price rose. As of December 31, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,080 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 20,140 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,440 US dollars/ton as of December 30, 2025, a weekly increase of 110 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9901, a weekly decrease of 0.55% [24]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 5,106 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2025, a weekly increase of 333 yuan/ton. The average price of amblygonite was 14,025 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 800 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 7.64% from October but a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 208.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 249%. The monthly output was 53,980 tons, an increase of 4.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 55.29%. The monthly开工率 was 43%, a decrease of 5% from the previous month and a decrease of 32% year - on - year [36]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The average price was 180,000 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 5.55% from October and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [39]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price was 45,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,300 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 268,890 tons, an increase of 0.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 29.43%. The monthly开工率 was 63%, a decrease of 1% from the previous month and a decrease of 4% year - on - year [42]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type continued to strengthen. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 61,520 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from October but a year - on - year increase of 10.65%. The monthly开工率 was 51%, a decrease of 1% from the previous month but an increase of 3% year - on - year [47]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price was 45,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 10,210 tons, a decrease of 0.87% from October and a year - on - year decrease of 2.67% [52]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price was 374,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 27,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 16,050 tons, an increase of 1.65% from October and a year - on - year increase of 111.74% [55]. - **New - energy Vehicles**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly output was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%, and the monthly sales were 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. The cumulative export volume was 2.315 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [57][62]. 3.5 Options Market - Based on the option parity theory, the synthetic underlying asset had a premium of 0.04, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Considering the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a short straddle to short volatility [67].

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 12月31日，ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 120000 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 下跌 1000 元 ；电池级氢氧化锂（ 56.5%粗颗粒）结算指导价格为 96000 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日持平。 近期下游材料厂集中检修，补库意愿不强，商家也多以观望为主，市场整体成交平淡。 期货方面， 12月31日，碳酸锂期货高开低走，尾盘疯狂拉升，碳酸锂主力合约收于 121580 元 /吨 ，较上一交易日 上涨 1040 元 /吨 ，持仓量小幅下降。 ICC锂电结算指导价： | 品名 | 12月30日 | 12月31日 | 环比上涨 | 上月均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂精矿 | 1590 | 1590 | 0 | 997. 5 | | (6.0%) | | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂 | 12. 1 | 12 | -0.1 | 8. 58 | | (99.5%/辉石) | | | | | | 氢氧化锂 (5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have released a notification regarding the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies in 2026, focusing on optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Support Scope Optimization - The 2026 policy continues to support the 2025 scope, adding new areas such as elevator installations in old residential communities and equipment updates in elderly care institutions [1] - In the safety sector, updates for firefighting and inspection equipment are included, while consumer infrastructure now covers commercial complexes and large supermarkets [1] - The policy maintains subsidies for scrapping and replacing cars, as well as for six categories of household appliances, and expands digital product subsidies to include smart devices [1] Group 2: Subsidy Standard Optimization - The subsidy for updating old residential elevators will now be tiered based on the number of floors, rather than a flat rate [2] - For scrapping old operational trucks, there is a priority for electric truck replacements, while car subsidies will be adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price [2] - Household appliance subsidies will focus on energy-efficient products, providing 15% of the product price with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [2] Group 3: Implementation Mechanism Optimization - The policy aims to streamline project application and review processes, lowering investment thresholds to support small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - It includes measures to combat fraudulent claims and ensures a unified subsidy standard across the nation for various categories [2] - The NDRC will coordinate with other departments to implement the policy effectively and ensure local governments adhere to the guidelines [3] Group 4: Funding and Execution - A total of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support the consumer goods replacement program for 2026, with early disbursement to meet seasonal demand [4] - The NDRC will work with relevant departments to monitor and manage the use of subsidy funds, ensuring a smooth implementation of the policy [4]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、上周（12 | 月 | 22 | 日-12 | 月 | 28 | 日），10 | 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积 | 总计 | 293.66 | 万平方米，环比增长 | 31.6%，同比下降 | 27.7%。 | | 2、据 | Mysteel | 不完全整理，2025 | 年超 | 130 | 个钢铁项目开工或投产。 | 3、2026 | 年国补方案 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of various commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Indonesia's plan to cut nickel production in 2026 has boosted market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains uncertain. The short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited, with the main contract reference range of 126,000 - 135,000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanex's production interruption in Chile has led to a price increase. The port is facing inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to shift to destocking in the first quarter of the next year. The price in the inland area is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is in the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term, with attention paid to the changes in farmers' selling mentality and policy releases [4]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market shows a structural theme market, with the index oscillating at a high level. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a bull spread combination and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [5][7]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but it is still fragile. It is expected to be in a volatile situation in the short term. After the New Year, attention should be paid to the capital flow, central bank's bond - buying, and other factors [8][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The Fed's December meeting minutes have a neutral impact. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium - to - long - term, investors can consider bargain - hunting after the New Year [11][13]. 3.4 Shipping (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Policy incentives are difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The TC decline supports the price. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to import profitability, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [27][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has subsided, and the price has fallen sharply. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the macro situation and supply - side recovery [30][35]. - **Nickel**: Driven by news and technical factors, the price has broken through the previous high. The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with attention paid to nickel ore news and steel mill production cuts [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The end - of - year news has increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. In January, there is pressure to cut production due to weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [47][49]. 3.6 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is in a volatile trend. The production cut and inventory reduction support the price, but the weak demand limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is facing the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a short - term long - position attempt [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price has peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts has been launched. The supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [60][64]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [65][68]. - **Silicomanganese**: The manganese ore supports the price, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to be volatile, with interval operations recommended [69][71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean harvest expectation suppresses the market. The domestic spot is loose. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [72][74]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [75][76]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term [77][79]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic supply pressure restricts the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [80][82]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are in a bottom - level oscillation. The domestic price has reached a new high for the year. The short - term price may correct, and the medium - to - long - term trend is relatively optimistic [83][85]. - **Egg**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [86][87]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil has a short - term upward trend, but the overall oils should not be over - bullish. Different oils have different price trends and risks [88][90]. - **Jujube**: The cost supports the price, but the consumption improvement is limited. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 01 contract and the Spring Festival stocking [91][92]. - **Apple**: The demand is weak, and the price is declining. The short - term market is in a game between scarce delivery fruits and high - inventory ordinary fruits [93]. 3.8 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation has increased significantly, and the downstream negative feedback is prominent. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [94][95]. - **PTA**: The processing fee has recovered, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [96][97]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [98]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply expectation increases. The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the near - month inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread on EG5 - 9 at high prices [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is limited. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [103][104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short above 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [105][106]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the transaction is neutral. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [107]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit expansion [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the MTO05 spread contraction [108][109]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the现货 price has declined steadily. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [109][110]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the high - price transaction is light. The price is expected to weaken after a rebound [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The production rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: Supported by production line cold - repair and improved sales rate, the price is expected to be in a bottom - level oscillation and strengthen [113][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to hold short positions [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the price follows the commodity trend. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 11,200 - 12,000 [118][119].

Macro News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies in 2026, outlining support scope, subsidy standards, and work requirements [1] - The policy includes subsidies for replacing old home appliances, with consumers receiving 15% of the sales price as a subsidy for purchasing energy-efficient appliances, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [1] - The policy also supports the purchase of digital and smart products, offering a similar subsidy structure, with a cap of 500 yuan per item for products priced under 6,000 yuan [1] - Additionally, the policy provides subsidies for scrapping old cars, with 12% of the purchase price for new energy vehicles (up to 20,000 yuan) and 10% for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less (up to 15,000 yuan) [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released the "Automobile Industry Digital Transformation Implementation Plan," aiming for significant improvements in smart manufacturing capabilities and digital levels by 2027 [2] - By 2030, the plan envisions a high level of digital and intelligent development in the industry, with deep integration of digitalization and business, and a well-established digital public service system [2] - The National Defense Science and Technology Industry Bureau emphasized the need to promote commercial aerospace development and accelerate the construction of a strong aerospace nation [2] - The Ministry of Education plans to advance artificial intelligence in education, with policies expected next year to enhance AI education and applications [2] Overseas News - U.S. stock indices closed lower on December 30, with the Dow Jones down 94.87 points, S&P 500 down 9.5 points, and Nasdaq down 55.27 points, marking three consecutive days of decline [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements, with a 25 basis point rate cut approved, lowering the target range to 3.50% to 3.75% [3] - The decision had the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019, indicating a divided stance among Fed members regarding the rate cut [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of the "Two New" policy for 2026 by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, which includes support for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in policies [1][2] Group 2 - The support scope for equipment updates will continue from 2025, with additions in the areas of old residential elevators, equipment updates for elderly care institutions, and safety equipment such as firefighting and inspection devices [1] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods will focus on key consumer products with strong driving effects, including continued subsidies for scrapping and replacing cars, and a focus on six categories of home appliances [1] - The subsidy standards for equipment updates will be adjusted to a tiered system based on the number of elevator floors, with a priority for electric trucks in the scrapping and replacement of old operational trucks [2] - The implementation mechanism will be optimized to lower the investment threshold for project applications, increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and ensure a unified subsidy standard across the country [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have announced a new policy for 2026 aimed at promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs, with a total funding plan of 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of special bonds to support these initiatives [1] Group 1: Policy Optimizations - The 2026 "Two New" policy has three main optimizations: 1. The support scope for equipment upgrades has been extended to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas and equipment updates in elderly care institutions, as well as updates for fire rescue facilities and commercial infrastructure [2] 2. The subsidy standards have been adjusted, with differentiated subsidies for residential elevator updates based on the number of floors and prioritizing electric trucks for old operational vehicle replacements [3] 3. The implementation mechanism has been optimized to lower the investment threshold for project applications and enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises [4] Group 2: Subsidy Details - For consumer goods trade-in, the policy continues to support the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, focusing on six categories of household appliances and expanding the subsidy for digital and smart products [2] - In the automotive sector, consumers can receive a subsidy of 8% of the purchase price (up to 15,000 yuan) for new energy vehicles and 6% (up to 13,000 yuan) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [3] - The subsidy for household appliances is set at 15% of the price for products meeting energy efficiency standards, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item [3]

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨李博 视频｜ 柳润瑛 12月30日，国家发展改革委和财政部联合对外发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策的通知》（下文简称《通知》），明确了2026年"两新"政策的补贴范围 和补贴标准。 《通知》明确指出，在继续支持工业、电子信息、能源电力、交通运输等领域设备更新项目 的基础上， 将老旧小区加装电梯、养老机构等设备更新纳入支持范围。在汽车报废更新、 汽车置换更新、家电、数码和智能产品等领域，实施消费品以旧换新政策。 官方消息显示，为优化实施"两新"政策，做好政策平稳有序衔接，满足元旦、春节等旺季消 费需求，近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期 特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 优化"两新"政策支持范围 《通知》明确指出，在继续支持工业、电子信息、能源电力、交通运输、物流、教育、文 旅、医疗、设施农业、粮油加工、安全生产、海关查验、住宅老旧电梯、节能降碳环保等领 域设备更新项目的基础上，将老旧小区加装电梯、养老机构、消防救援设施、检验检测等领 域设备更新纳入支持范围，更好满足民生和安全需要。支持商业综合体、购物中心、百货 店 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the newly released policy for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement in 2026, outlining the support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms [2][3]. Summary by Sections Support Scope Optimization - The 2026 policy continues the support range from 2025, adding new areas such as the installation of elevators in old residential communities and equipment updates in elderly care institutions. It also includes updates for fire rescue and inspection equipment, as well as equipment updates for offline commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2]. Subsidy Standard Optimization - For equipment updates, the subsidy for residential old elevator updates will shift from a fixed amount to a tiered subsidy based on the number of elevator floors. The policy prioritizes electric trucks for the scrapping and updating of old operational trucks. In the consumer goods replacement aspect, the subsidy for cars remains capped, but the fixed subsidy will be adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price. The subsidy for home appliances will focus on energy-efficient products, providing 15% of the product price with a maximum of 1500 yuan per item [3]. Implementation Mechanism Optimization - The policy aims to streamline the project application and review processes, lowering the investment threshold for project applications and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises. It also includes measures to combat fraudulent claims and ensures a unified subsidy standard across the country for various categories, including car scrapping and replacement, home appliances, and digital products [3][4].