Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positives, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market volatility and adjustments should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Operation - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.40% with an 8.17bp increase, DR007 at 1.55% with a 3.67bp increase, GC001 at 1.03% with a 75.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.43% with a 19.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.57% with a 0.20bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37% with a 1.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.56% with a 1.25bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.71% with a 1.50bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.38% with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. This week, there are 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, but government bond issuances and certificate of deposit maturities are lower than last week, and month - end fiscal expenditures may speed up, which could bring incremental funds to the inter - bank market [3]. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4076 with a 1.82% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2776 with a 1.54% decrease, the CSI 500 at 6226 with a 1.40% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 6661 with a 0.85% decrease. The trading volume of the two markets was 19360 billion yuan, an increase of 918 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally declined, with energy metals, steel, coal, mining, photovoltaic equipment, real estate development, shipbuilding, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries leading the decline [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF's current - month contract closed at 4070 with a 1.8% decrease, IH's at 2777 with a 1.6% decrease, IC's at 6187 with a 1.3% decrease, and IM's at 6612 with a 0.9% decrease. IF's trading volume was 156196 with a 13.2% increase, IH's was 75925 with a 7.0% increase, IC's was 119559 with a 13.6% increase, and IM's was 267774 with a 15.8% increase. IF's open interest was 270987 with a 1.4% decrease, IH's decreased, IC's was 227163 with a 1.2% decrease, and IM's was 348264 with a 0.5% increase [3]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 3.10%, IH's had a discount of - 1.23%, IC's had a premium of 15.22%, and IM's had a premium of 17.89% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Royal Bank of Canada anticipates that the Bank of Canada will maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting due to sticky inflation, a resilient economy, and stronger fiscal spending [1] Economic Conditions - Trade tensions are escalating, and Canadian economic data remains weak [1] - The labor market showed signs of bottoming out in June, with a partial recovery in the confidence index that had plummeted in March [1] - The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) allows most Canadian exports to enter the US duty-free, which is crucial for Canada [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation reports have unexpectedly risen, primarily driven by pressures from the domestic service sector [1] - The combination of sticky inflation data, a weak yet relatively resilient economic backdrop, and the prospect of increased fiscal spending are reasons why the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates again in this cycle [1]

Revenue Analysis - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national general public budget revenue from January to June 2025 is -0.3%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure is +3.4%, down from +4.2%[1] - Government fund budget revenue shows a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -2.4%, improving from -6.9% previously[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In June, tax revenue shows a year-on-year growth of +1.04%, an improvement compared to May[3] - The domestic consumption tax in June increased by +1.96%, while the vehicle purchase tax rose by +5.99%, indicating a positive contribution from automotive consumption[4] - The corporate income tax grew by +2.73%, reflecting a low base effect, but remains lower than the growth rate of value-added tax[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in June increased significantly by +20.8%, recovering from -8.1% the previous month, driven by land sales[25] - The expenditure of government funds in June surged by +79.2%, compared to +8.8% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures showing a year-on-year growth of +5.9%[25] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure growth in June is +0.38%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure in June fell by -8.80%, while social security and health expenditures also saw declines[15] - The completion rate for general public budget revenue from January to June is 48.8%, lower than the average of the past five years[15]

Revenue and Fiscal Performance - In June, general public budget revenue was 1.89 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%, marking a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Non-tax revenue in June fell by 3.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.5 percentage points compared to May, primarily due to a high base from the previous year[3] - Tax revenue in June showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%, recovering by 0.4 percentage points from May but still below April levels[3] Expenditure and Budget Deficit - June fiscal expenditure grew by only 0.4% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points from May, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive month[4] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure for the first half of the year increased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth by 3.7 percentage points, indicating stable support for total consumption and investment demand[4] - The budget deficit for the first half of the year reached 2.57 trillion, an increase of 0.5 trillion year-on-year, raising the need for government bond financing[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund budget revenue in June rebounded sharply by 28.9% year-on-year, with land transfer fees contributing significantly to this increase, rising by 36.5 percentage points from May[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special government bonds, with total expenditure growth for the first half of the year reaching 30%[5] - The overall budget deficit for government funds in the first half of the year reached 2.68 trillion, a substantial increase of 1.1 trillion year-on-year[5] Future Outlook and Risks - The fiscal revenue shortfall is expected to widen further, potentially triggering the issuance of special government bonds if three conditions are met, including low inflation and continued pressure on tax revenue[6] - The financing progress for government bonds has already reached 55.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2023[6] - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion being lower than expected, which could impact the effectiveness of consumption and investment stimulus measures[6]

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - The overall fiscal performance in the first half of 2025 is stable, with increased fiscal spending supporting economic stability [1] - National general public budget revenue reached 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while general public budget expenditure was 14.1271 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [1] - The broad fiscal expenditure (including general public budget and government fund budget) grew by 8.9%, significantly higher than the broad fiscal revenue growth of -0.6% [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Trends - National tax revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, which is lower than the economic growth rate of 5.3% [2] - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to multiple factors, including falling industrial product prices, economic downturn, and tax reduction policies [2] - Tax revenue decline has been narrowing since April, with major tax categories showing stable growth, including domestic value-added tax and personal income tax [3] Group 3: Government Fund Revenue - Local government land transfer revenue was 1.4271 trillion yuan, down 6.5%, but this decline is less severe compared to earlier months [4] - The narrowing decline in land sales revenue reflects improvements in the real estate market due to various supportive policies [5] Group 4: Debt Issuance and Financing - The issuance of government bonds reached a record high of 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 35.28% year-on-year [5] - Net financing from government bonds was 7.66 trillion yuan, up 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [6] Group 5: Social Spending and Policy Focus - Social security and employment spending reached 2.4504 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2%, indicating a strong focus on social welfare [7] - The government is committed to increasing the "people's livelihood" content in fiscal spending and improving the efficiency of fund usage [8] Group 6: Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - The implementation of debt replacement policies has alleviated liquidity pressure on local governments and promoted economic development [9] - The fiscal department is focused on ensuring the effective implementation of various debt support policies to sustain economic stability [9]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in China is stable, with a total public budget revenue of 11.56 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline has narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue is gradually recovering, with a total tax revenue of 9.29 trillion yuan in the first half, down 1.2% year-on-year, but showing monthly growth for three consecutive months starting from April [1] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax have shown stable growth rates of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [1] Group 2 - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed, with a total of 2.27 trillion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, which is a decline of 5.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Local public budget revenue has increased by 1.6% in the first half, with 27 out of 31 provinces achieving growth [2] Group 3 - Fiscal expenditure has increased, with total public budget expenditure reaching 14.13 trillion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [3] - Key areas such as social security and employment, education, and health have seen significant increases in expenditure, with growth rates of 9.2%, 5.9%, and 4.3% respectively [3] - The issuance and use of bond funds have accelerated, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent on government special bonds in the first half, driving a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal operation in China is stable in the first half of the year, with a slight decline in public budget revenue and a gradual recovery in tax revenue [1][3] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - National general public budget revenue reached 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue for the first half was 92,900 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but monthly tax revenue has shown growth for three consecutive months starting from April [1][3] - Major tax categories showed stable growth, with domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax increasing by 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [3] Group 2: Non-Tax Revenue - National non-tax revenue amounted to 22,700 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, but the growth rate fell by 5.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [5][6] - Non-tax revenue saw declines in May and June, with decreases of 2.2% and 3.7% respectively [5] - Revenue from state-owned resources (assets) increased by 4.8%, while administrative fees grew by 1%, but the growth rate decreased by 4.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [6] Group 3: Regional Revenue Performance - Most regions maintained revenue growth, with local general public budget revenue increasing by 1.6% in the first half [8] - Revenue growth varied by region, with eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions growing by 1.3%, 1.3%, 2%, and 5.7% respectively [8] - Out of 31 provinces, 27 achieved revenue growth [8] Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure reached 141,300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [10] - Expenditures in social security and employment, education, science and technology, and energy conservation and environmental protection all grew by over 5% [10] - Local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure, totaling 24,300 billion yuan [10]

【导读】日本执政联盟将失去参议院的多数席位，这将进一步削弱首相石破茂的领导地位，并可能扰乱 金融市场 7月20日，据出口民调显示，日本执政联盟在上议院选举中可能失去多数席位，这一结果可能进一步削 弱饱受压力的首相石破茂的领导地位，并可能扰乱金融市场。 日本公共广播公司NHK的民调显示，在周日争夺的125个席位中，执政联盟可能仅能获得32至51席，低 于维持248席上议院多数所需的50席。《朝日新闻》估计，自民党及其执政伙伴公明党将合计赢得41 席。《日经新闻》则表示，该联盟预计将失去大量席位，但未提供具体数字。 尽管失去席位，石破茂表示将继续担任首相一职，他认为自民党仍有望在参众两院中保持第一大党。在 周日分别接受多家电视台采访时被问及是否会继续担任首相时，石破茂回应："是的。" 石破茂表示："我仍肩负多项国家任务，包括实现超越通胀的工资增长、推动国内生产总值达到一千万 亿日元，以及应对日益紧张的安全环境。尽管选票尚未完全统计，但我们似乎仍是各政党中赢得席位最 多的一方。" 不过，如果执政联盟失去对上议院的控制权，这将使石破茂政府成为自1950年代自民党成立以来首次在 参众两院都处于少数的执政政府。这也将是石 ...

Group 1 - The public dispute between President Trump and Tesla (TSLA.US) CEO Elon Musk escalates, focusing on government subsidies and fiscal spending [1] - Trump suggests that Musk has received the largest subsidies in history and calls for an investigation by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) [1] - Musk responds by advocating for the elimination of all subsidies immediately, highlighting his opposition to Trump's fiscal spending proposal [1] Group 2 - Musk expresses dissatisfaction on social media during the voting period, criticizing lawmakers who support record debt growth despite promises to cut government spending [2] - He threatens to ensure the defeat of these lawmakers in the upcoming primaries and hints at the possibility of forming a new political party [2] - Musk references a past interview where he stated that the removal of electric vehicle subsidies would significantly enhance Tesla's competitive advantage [2]

Revenue Performance - In May 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from April's 1.9%[1] - The broad fiscal revenue in May saw a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, slowing down by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 1.9% in April, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% compared to a growth of 1.7% in April[3] Expenditure Trends - In May, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points from April's 5.8%[4] - Cumulative general public budget expenditure from January to May reached 38.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the average of 37.4% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditures in May decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, a decline of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] Government Fund Insights - Government fund revenue in May fell by 8.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 16.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[7] - The land transfer income in May decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, a sharp decline from April's growth of 4.3%[8] - Government fund expenditure in May grew by 8.8% year-on-year, but this was a significant decrease from April's 44.7% growth rate[9]