Core Insights - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first ten months of the year shows a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, indicating a continuation of improvement in fiscal conditions [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - From January to October, the total public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion yuan, growing by 1.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to 33,126 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central government's public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue increased by 2.1% to 104,634 billion yuan [2]. - Tax revenue growth has shown a recovery trend for eight consecutive months, with an October year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%. The overall tax revenue growth target for the year is set at 3.7% [2][3]. Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year. Central government expenditure rose by 6.3% to 34,727 billion yuan, while local government expenditure increased by 1.2% to 191,098 billion yuan [5]. - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.3%, education by 4.7%, and science and technology by 5.7%, indicating a focus on social welfare and development [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The growth in tax revenue was particularly strong in personal income tax, which increased by 11.5%, and stamp duty, which surged by 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1% [3]. - The analysis suggests that the recovery in tax revenue is linked to improved economic conditions, including a more active capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [3][4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fiscal revenue growth target for the year is likely to be achieved, supported by a moderate recovery in prices and effective fiscal policies [4]. - There is a need for increased fiscal spending in the last two months of the year, especially in infrastructure and public welfare sectors, to counteract the slower spending observed in October [5][6].

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, indicating a slight acceleration in growth compared to the previous nine months [1] - Public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate has slowed down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] Revenue Analysis - In October, public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with tax revenue increasing by 8.6% while non-tax revenue fell by 33% [1] - Major tax categories showed varied performance: VAT revenue grew by 7.2%, consumption tax revenue increased by 4.5%, while corporate income tax growth slowed to 7.3% [2][4] - Personal income tax revenue surged by 27.3%, reflecting both a low base effect and improved tax collection efforts [2] Expenditure Analysis - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 3.1% increase in the previous month, indicating a significant drop in spending [4][5] - The decline in expenditure is attributed to a high base from the previous year and local fiscal constraints [4] - Infrastructure-related spending saw substantial declines, with specific categories like energy conservation and transportation experiencing double-digit decreases [4][5] Broader Fiscal Context - The cumulative growth rate of general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 76.0%, below the five-year average of 77.4% [5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue dropping by 7.4% [5] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% in October, a significant drop compared to a 2.3% increase in September, influenced by high base effects and prior fiscal measures [6] Future Outlook - The issuance of 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt is expected to accelerate in November and December, potentially supporting fiscal expenditure and economic recovery [1][6][7] - The implementation of new policy financial tools also indicates a strengthening of fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing growth [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 2025 年 10 月财政数据快评 财政支出离完成预算有多远？ 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算收入 186490 亿元，同比增长 0.8%。其中，全国税收收入 153364 亿元，同比 增长 1.7%；非税收入 33126 亿元，同比下降 3.1%。 后续可能需要加快财政资金落地速度。10 月财政存款环比上行 7200 亿，存款余额来到 7.7 万亿，这一数 字高出过去三年同期均值 8414 亿；1-10 月广义财政累计缺口约 8.7 万亿，而广义赤字到十月底已落地 10.3 万亿，已发未用 1.7 万亿，即使剔除特殊新增专项债，财政资金仍有部分尚未落地。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 1-10 月，全国一般公共预 ...

Macro Insights - The growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in October slowed down year-on-year, influenced by a high base effect, but the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth continued to rise, indicating stronger growth in fiscal expenditure than the apparent rate [2][3] - The year-on-year growth rate of general fiscal expenditure (including general public budget and government funds) fell to -19.1% in October from 2.3% in September, while the adjusted month-on-month growth increased from 9.3% in September to 15.7% in October [2][3] Fixed Income Insights - In the second week of November, the real estate market showed a divergence between new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales slightly recovering but remaining low year-on-year, while second-hand home activity weakened [3] - Industrial freight volume remained strong, but production rates varied, with coking and blast furnace operating rates declining, while other sectors like oil refining and automotive remained stable [3] - The liquidity in the market was tight due to tax periods and the Double Eleven shopping festival, with the average DR007 and R007 rates rising to 1.49% and 1.50% respectively [4] REITs Analysis - The public REITs market experienced a downturn in the second half of the year due to high previous gains, stock market diversion, and rising interest rates, leading to a need for selective investment in quality assets [5] - Projects with stable fundamentals, such as rental housing and municipal environmental projects, are recommended for investment, while caution is advised for industrial parks and logistics warehouses [5] Power Equipment and New Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines to promote the healthy development of the wind power equipment industry, encouraging companies to enhance green and intelligent levels [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability in wind turbine manufacturing [6] Key Company Insights - GaoNeng Environment is positioned for a performance release period due to ongoing upgrades and capacity ramp-up in its metal resource recycling projects, contributing significantly to its revenue [7] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is expected to benefit from a recovery in the refining sector due to a global sulfur supply-demand imbalance, with a projected increase in sulfur consumption in 2024 [8][10]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 10 月公共财政收入同比 3.2% ，创年内单月增速高点。其中税收表现偏强，同比 8.6% ，大致持平前值 8.7% 的高位，显著高于前 8 个月累计同比的 0.02% 。同时财政对非税的依赖度进一步下降，非税收入同比 -33% 。今年财政收入年累计增速并不高，前 10 个月同 比为 0.8% ，和今年名义 GDP 增速中枢依然偏低的状况匹配；但 9 月以来边际改善较为明显。 第二， 10月税收增速为何偏强？基数并不是关键，从绝对规模来看，10月税收收入也显著超出季节性。其中个人所得税近月表现相对突 出，9月个税同比16.7%、10月同比27.3%。我们理解一则可能与资本市场表现活跃、财富效应有所增加有关；二则可能与10月实施的《互 联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》有关。除个税外，消费税由于其税收结构，或受金价上行的带动较多。企业所得税和国内增值税的好 转，应与PPI环比改善有关，后者9月以来的好转还与增值税留抵退税政策、国债等利息收入政策调整有关。 第三， 财政支出同比下行12.9个百分点至-9.8% ...

央广网北京11月18日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，财政部昨天 （17日）发布的最新数据显示，今年1月—10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%，增幅比1 月—9月提高0.3个百分点。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%，月度增幅继续提高。 前10个月（1月—10月），全国财政支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%。各级财政落实更加积极的财 政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。其中，社会保障和就业支出 增长9.3%，科学技术支出增长5.7%，教育支出增长4.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady recovery in public budget revenue and a slowdown in expenditure growth, with significant increases in spending related to people's livelihoods and technology [1][3] - In the first ten months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue growing by 1.7% to 15.34 trillion yuan [1] - The growth in public finance revenue is primarily driven by tax revenue, with notable increases in domestic VAT (4%), domestic consumption tax (2.4%), corporate income tax (1.9%), and personal income tax (11.5%) [1][2] Group 2 - The capital market's high activity level has significantly boosted personal income tax, corporate income tax, and securities transaction stamp duty, with the latter increasing by 88.1% to 162.9 billion yuan in the first ten months [1][2] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with computer communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 12.7% and scientific research and technical services by 14.8% [3] - Social security and employment expenditures, education, health, science and technology, and environmental protection expenditures all saw growth, with social security and employment spending increasing by 9.3% [3]

与经济关联最为密切的税收收入，10月份再次保持较快增长。11月17日，财政部公开了今年前10个月财 政收支情况。财政收入延续回暖势头。 今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算收入约18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，税收收入约15.34万亿 元，同比增长1.7%。 为何税收收入保持较快增长 今年以来，税收收入降幅持续收窄并由负转正，其中7月和8月税收收入增幅超过5%，9月份全国税收收 入同比增长8.7%，10月份这一增速为8.6%。 此前税务总局表示，今年三季度特别是9月份税收收入增幅较高，除经济向好带动因素外，PPI降幅收 窄、去年同期收入基数较低也相应带来税收收入增长。 今年资本市场交易活跃，带动相关行业税收增长。根据公开数据，今年8月份A股公司总市值首次突破 100万亿元，9月份上证指数创十年新高；8、9月份日均股票成交额分别达到2.3万亿元和2.4万亿元。受 此影响，与资本市场相关的行业、税种收入增长较快。 随着股权转让以及上市公司分红增加，相关个人所得税也出现较快增长。财政部数据显示，今年前10个 月证券交易印花税收入1629亿元，同比增长88.1%；个人所得税收入13363亿元，同比增长11.5% ...

⚫ 一、广义财政收入回落，支出增速显著放 缓 宏观研究报告 增量资金有望加速到位 —— 2025 年 1-10 月财政数据解读 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ⚫ 1-10 月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 1.7% 月月月 0.7% 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月 月月10 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月 月月月月月月 月月月月月 月月月月月月月月 11 -12 月月月月月月 月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月 月 ⚫ 2025 月 1-10 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 0.2% 月月月 0.3% 月月月月月月月月月月 5.2% 月月月 7.9% 月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's fiscal revenue for the first ten months of the year has shown a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, with total public budget revenue reaching 186.49 billion yuan [1][2] - Tax revenue has increased by 1.7% year-on-year, amounting to 153.36 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue has decreased by 3.1%, totaling 33.13 billion yuan [1] - In October alone, public budget revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which is an improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] Group 2 - Public budget expenditure has also maintained growth, with total expenditure for the first ten months reaching 225.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Key areas of expenditure include social security and employment, which grew by 9.3%, education at 4.7%, and health care at 2.4% [2] - Government fund budget revenue has decreased by 2.8% to 34.5 billion yuan, while expenditure has surged by 15.4% to 80.9 billion yuan, largely due to accelerated use of bond funds [2]