金十数据7月14日讯，日本央行周一公布的消费者调查显示，部分日本人已开始感受到日本央行加息的 影响。约21.2%的受访者表示利率过高，而3月份的调查中这一比例为19.3%。日本央行决策者一再表 示，实际利率仍然很低，如果经济状况改善，央行将继续收紧货币政策。然而，一些经济学家表示，央 行应更谨慎地考虑任何进一步行动，因为下一次加息后，利率将达到过去三十年来从未有过的水平。 日银调查显示部分日本人已感受到加息影响 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar for the second consecutive day, currently trading at 0.006923 with a decline of 0.14%, pushing USD/JPY to the 144.75 region despite a lack of follow-through action [1] - The Bank of Japan is considering a plan to halve its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchase speed starting from April 2026, which is expected to gain majority support during the upcoming policy meeting [2] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the June policy meeting, while policymakers believe inflation will be slightly higher than earlier expectations, potentially paving the way for future rate hike discussions [2] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is hovering around the resistance level of 144.75, with a breakthrough above 145.00 seen as a key bullish trigger that could push the pair to monthly highs near 145.45 [3] - The 144.00 level is currently seen as a protective barrier for downside movement, with potential buying interest expected around 143.55-143.50 if a decline occurs [3] - A convincing break below 143.50 could lead USD/JPY to the 143.00 level, followed by the swing low around 142.80-142.75 and the lower boundary of the trading range near the mid-142.00s [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department suggests that the Bank of Japan should continue tightening monetary policy to support the normalization of a weaker yen and the structural rebalancing of bilateral trade [1] - The report emphasizes that government investment tools, such as large public pension funds, should invest overseas for risk-adjusted returns and diversification, rather than targeting exchange rates for competitive purposes [1] - The Japanese Finance Minister stated that the government has delegated monetary policy decisions to the Bank of Japan and refrained from commenting on the report's contents [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan ended its large-scale monetary stimulus last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, as officials believe Japan will continue to achieve a 2% inflation target [2] - Despite the Bank of Japan's readiness to further raise interest rates, the economic impact of U.S. tariff increases led to a downward revision of economic growth forecasts in May [2] - A survey conducted from May 7 to 13 indicated that most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September, although more than half anticipate a rate hike by the end of the year [2]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to decline, currently at 145.2130, down 0.28%, influenced by a weaker dollar index due to poor economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, with slightly over half anticipating at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year [1][2] - The survey, conducted from May 7 to 13 among 62 economists, reflects the Bank of Japan policymakers' view that while U.S. tariffs have disrupted markets, they have not completely derailed efforts to gradually tighten monetary policy [1] Group 2 - 95% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at the June policy meeting, with 67% predicting the benchmark rate will remain at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [2] - The implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from a low of 9.5% to 11.3%, indicating increased demand for downside protection against the dollar, particularly beyond the three-month period following the U.S.-China tariff pause [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if the USD/JPY breaks below the psychological level of 145.00, it could lead to a decline towards the 144.55 area, with further support at approximately 144.30, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level [3]

Group 1 - The majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates unchanged until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - More than half of the respondents anticipate at least a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year [1] - The survey conducted from May 7 to 13 included 62 economists, with 95% expecting no change in the June policy meeting [1] Group 2 - 67% of economists predict the Bank of Japan will keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [1] - The median forecast for the benchmark rate by the end of September is 0.50%, down from 0.75% in the last survey [1] - 96% of respondents believe there is no need for the Bank of Japan to cut rates, consistent with the previous month's survey [2] Group 3 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan stated that despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies, wages and prices are expected to continue rising [2] - 55% of respondents support Japan's government in tariff negotiations with the U.S., while 34% are neutral [2] - Japan and the U.S. have already held two rounds of tariff negotiations, with hopes for another meeting in mid-May [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's trade protectionism is reshaping the operational logic of the U.S. real estate market, with economists warning that 2025 may be a critical turning point due to the combined pressures of trade policy and economic cycles [1] Supply-Side Impact - The latest financial report from builder PulteGroup reveals the transmission effects of tariffs, with key building materials like bathroom fixtures and tiles seeing procurement costs rise due to a 10% global tariff policy, despite temporary exemptions for materials like copper and lumber [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% since 2020, with tariff-related costs accounting for 19% of this increase [2] - Labor market constraints are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, leading to a labor shortage of 300,000 in the construction industry, which directly raises labor costs [2] - Developer willingness to start new projects has dropped to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to the dual pressures of material tariffs and labor shortages [2] Demand-Side Pressure - Housing affordability is experiencing systemic deterioration, with the median U.S. household income now allocating 34% to mortgage payments, surpassing the historical warning line since the 1980s [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains high at 6.8%, having doubled from its 2020 low, despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates [2] - The Case-Shiller index shows that home prices are rising at a rate that consistently exceeds CPI growth, with actual home prices up 89% from their 2012 low [2] - Core inflation in housing rent has increased by 5.7% year-over-year, contributing significantly to price stickiness [2] Monetary Policy Dilemma - The structure of inflation is forcing monetary policy into a dilemma, with the Federal Reserve's vice chairman acknowledging that supply-side inflation from trade policies is undermining the effectiveness of demand management policies [4] - Market expectations indicate that there is less than 50 basis points of room for interest rate cuts before 2026, suggesting that mortgage rates may remain elevated for an extended period [4] Regional Disparities - Structural adjustments in the market are leading to increasing regional disparities, with cities in the Midwest like Chicago and Detroit maintaining a reasonable price-to-income ratio of 4.2, while high-cost areas like San Jose and Honolulu exceed 12 [5] - Fairweather warns that simply addressing spatial mismatches will not resolve fundamental issues for employment groups reliant on high-paying sectors like technology and finance [5] Proposed Solutions - To address systemic challenges, Fairweather suggests multi-layered solutions, including establishing a special impact assessment mechanism for tariff policies on the real estate market at the federal level [5] - At the local level, reforms to "Planning Commission 2.0" should incorporate housing affordability metrics into land development approval processes [5] - The housing crisis is fundamentally a failure of public policy, necessitating a comprehensive response framework that includes immigration, trade, and monetary policies [5]

巴西央行会议纪要：货币政策适度收紧的调整将继续以实现相关期限内通胀回归目标为指导。 ...

英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：若薪资协议水平与CPI目标水平保持一致，将会增强市场对降息的信心。 通胀预期并未对维持货币政策收紧产生主导影响。 ...