南华贵金属日报:美PPI超预期 降息预期回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月15日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场明显调整，主要因晚间美PPI大超预期，重燃通胀担忧并削弱美联储降息预期，特别是关税问 题在通胀上显现问题，美指和美债收益率明显回升，其影响力也因其大超预期而大于CPI。周边资产看，原油 回升，比特币下跌，美股震荡，南华有色金属指数震荡调整。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3382.3美元/盎 司，-0.76%；美白银2509合约收报于38.035美元/盎司，-1.47%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.7元/克， +0.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9286元/千克，+0.77%。美国7月PPI同比+3.3%，选高于前值+2.3%，预 期+2.5%，为今年2月以来最高水平；美国7月PPI环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅，预期0.2%，前值 0%；核心PPI同比+3.7%，预期3%，前值 2.6%，为2月以来最高水平；核心PPI环比+0.9%，预期0.2%，前 值0%，为2022年4月以来最大涨幅。 【本 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月14日16时40分 一、黄金 报告导读： ①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈即将开启，避险需求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息 预期反弹。②避险属性方面，白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。"特普会"在即，特朗普表示美俄" 非常接近"达成协议。③货币属性方面，美国7月CPI通胀温和，CPI符合预期但核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于前值2.9%。美国7月 就业增长弱于预期，此前两个月非农遭大幅下修25.8万个，暗示劳动力市场状况急剧恶化。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非 农前40%左右快递飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. The US announced that the annual CPI rate in July remained flat at 2.7%, lower than expected, but the annual core CPI rate reached 3.1%, a five - month high and higher than expected. After the data release, the market maintained bets on the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Trump urged rate cuts again. Focusing on the upcoming US - Russia leadership talks, market sentiment is facing fluctuations. In the volatile trend of precious metals, patiently wait for callback opportunities to lay out [1]. Other Summaries Statements from Different Figures on Interest Rate Cuts - Trump: Urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates immediately and considered filing a major lawsuit against Powell. Stated that tariffs did not cause inflation or other problems for the country, and consumers did not even pay these tariffs [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Suggested that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Fed nominee Milan: Pleased with the good inflation performance. Whether the nomination can be approved before the September meeting depends on the Senate [2]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin: There may be pressures on inflation and unemployment, and the balance between the two is unclear [2]. - Kansas Fed President Schmid: Tariffs have limited impact on inflation, which is a reason to keep policy unchanged rather than an opportunity to cut interest rates [2]. Expectations for the US - Russia Summit - The White House has downplayed expectations of a peace agreement being reached at the US - Russia presidential summit on Friday and stated that any agreement must involve Ukraine. White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin will be a "listening tour", and Washington cannot predict any specific results. The goal of the meeting is to better understand how to end the conflict after the meeting [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 市 市 fat 官 方 网 站 品 有 服 热线 1.40 150. 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn tin No 入 IUI ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/8/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | 伦敦银现 (美元/盎司) | COMEX黄金 (美元/登司) | COMEX日银 (美元/盎司) | AU2510 (元/克) | AG2510 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/8/11 | 3365. 31 | 38. 05 | 3425. 30 | 38. ...

【本周关注】 本周数据关注周二20:30美7月CPI数据。事件方面主要关注密集美联储官员讲话，周二22：00，2027年 FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金发表讲话 ；周三19：30，2027年FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金 发表讲话；周四01：00，2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比就货币政策发表讲话，01：30， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就美国经济前景发表讲话。 南华贵金属日报:贵金属回调 关注晚间美CPI 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月12日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场大幅回调，美国黄金进口关税被否决，贸易关税担忧降温，以及数字货币资产价格上涨、国 内股市表现良好黄金ETF呈现流出，一定程度影响资金投资偏好和资产配置。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报 3393.7美元/盎司，-2.8%；美白银2509合约收报于37.645美元/盎司，-2.33%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约 779.48元/克，-0.81%；SHFE白银2510合约收9210元/千克，-0.72%。特朗普表示，黄金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's key appointments to the Fed's理事 positions will pressure the Fed into a further easing cycle, which is a continuous positive factor for gold and silver prices [1]. - The market has increased its expectations for the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. The Fed is likely to implement further loose monetary policies due to Trump's personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 777 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Domestic Futures**: Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.12% to 786.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.02% to 9279.00 yuan/kilogram. Au(T + D) closed at 783.27 yuan/gram, up 0.16%; Ag(T + D) closed at 9249.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.27% [1][3]. - **International Futures**: COMEX gold fell 0.82% to 3462.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.12% to 38.50 dollars/ounce. London gold rose 0.31% to 3394.15 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 0.22% to 38.29 dollars/ounce [1][3]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.06% to 959.64 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.80% to 14990.80 tons [3]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27%, and the US dollar index was 98.22. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.47%, the S&P 500 rose 0.78%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.98% [1][3]. Market Outlook - Trump's appointment of Milan as a Fed理事 and the potential selection of Waller as the new Fed chairman will increase Trump's influence on the Fed's monetary policy, putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed理事 Bowman supports interest rate cuts in the remaining three policy meetings this year [1]. - The market expects an 89.3% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September and a 53.5% probability of a further rate cut in October [2]. Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3458.20 dollars/ounce, down 0.70%; trading volume increased by 28.40% to 31.25 million lots; open interest increased by 0.99% to 44.96 million lots; inventory decreased by 0.22% to 1200 tons [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 38.51 dollars/ounce, down 0.05%; open interest decreased by 5.32% to 16.13 million lots; inventory increased by 0.07% to 15754 tons [5]. Price and Volume Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver, as well as their historical trends and near - far month structures [7][9][11]

Group 1: Internal Conflicts at Jingqi Investment - Jingqi Investment's fund manager Fan Siqi announced his resignation and fund liquidation, revealing internal conflicts within the company [1] - Fan accused the company of an unceremonious dismissal and claimed that shareholder actions were not compliant [1] - Jingqi Investment countered by stating that the dismissal was compliant and accused Fan of unauthorized actions, including data deletion [1] Group 2: Financial Irregularities - Fan Siqi released a statement denying rumors of "data deletion and running away," and disclosed financial irregularities, alleging that shareholder Tang's commission income was not recorded and used for personal expenses [1] Group 3: DeepSeek and Huansheng Quantitative's Rebate Scandal - The "rebate scandal" involving Huansheng Quantitative continues to unfold, with connections to serious violations by key personnel [4] - Investigations revealed that from 2018 to 2023, key individuals fabricated broker identities to siphon off 118 million yuan in performance bonuses [4] - The scandal has led to legal actions against involved parties, including the market director of Huansheng Quantitative [4] Group 4: Industry Trends and Notable Movements - The private equity sector is witnessing a trend of firms diversifying into entertainment, with three private equity firms collaborating on a drama series [6][7] - The drama, set against the backdrop of the futures market, reflects the evolving interests of private equity firms beyond traditional finance [6] Group 5: Market Insights from Notable Investors - Investor Duan Yongping has increased his stake in Berkshire Hathaway, anticipating a price rebound after a significant drop following CEO Warren Buffett's retirement announcement [8] - Legendary investor Jim Rogers has divested from most U.S. stocks, focusing on Chinese equities and precious metals, citing concerns over the U.S. economy [9] - Gao Yi Asset's Feng Liu has reduced holdings in Hikvision while increasing stakes in Taiji Group, indicating a strategic shift amid market fluctuations [10] Group 6: Regulatory Developments - Six new securities private equity firms have been registered with the Asset Management Association of China, indicating growth in the sector [11] - Changes in leadership at financial institutions, such as the appointment of a new general manager at Caitong Securities, reflect ongoing shifts within the industry [14] Group 7: Compliance Issues - The Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning to Hengqin Junchen Asset Management for failing to prevent employees from promising capital protection to investors [16][17] - The firm, which manages over 3 billion yuan, faced scrutiny for inadequate internal controls and compliance failures [17]

| Millio | > 國投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月08日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡偏强。美国对等关税正式生效且有所加码、美国经济前景担忧以及降息预期升温推动国际金 价测试近三个月以来运行区间高位重要阻力。有媒体报道一份针对瑞士精炼厂澄清请求的裁定函明确指出, 1公斤和100盎司金条应归入税号710813，而不属于唯一免税的710812税号，部分进口黄金加征关税令伦敦与 纽约金价价差扩大。俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普将在未来几天内举行会谈将成为影响走势的潜在因 素。贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路,高位谨慎参与。 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前 ...

| 贵金属日评20250808:特朗普已经确定临时美联储理事,中国央行连续九个月增持黄金 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-08-01 | 收盘价 | 785. 02 | 770. 72 | 1.34 | 14. 30 | 783.68 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 187081.00 | 191341.00 | -4. 260.00 | 189185.00 | -2.104.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 217630.00 | 215212. 00 | 218768.00 | 2, 418. 00 | -1,138.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35745.00 | 0. 00 | 300. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]