格隆汇10月9日｜现货白银涨势强劲，周四一度站上51美元/盎司的关口，虽然它笼罩在金价上涨的阴影 之下，但其速度更快。Gavekal Research的创始合伙人兼首席执行官Louis-Vincent Gave表示："黄金的牛 市现在已经蔓延到白银、铂金和钯金，甚至似乎正在渗入铜。一旦贵金属牛市开始，通常需要美联储采 取鹰派立场、或者美元大幅升值等因素出现，牛市才会停止。目前来看，这些发展似乎都不太可 能。"要找到能够拉低银价的驱动因素似乎很困难，因为世界越来越碎片化。与股票和债券不同，白银 等金属为投资者提供了一种安全感，并有望保护现金免受通胀侵蚀。另有分析师称："如果白银价格仍 能维持在50美元以上，这可能意味着市场正在重新评估白银的经济价值及其价值储藏功能，或者仅仅是 对白银进行的按市值重新定价。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

一场席卷全球的避险浪潮，正在将贵金属市场推向"沸腾"的顶点。 在全球多重风险因素叠加下，黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口，年内涨幅已达54%。 而市场的"沸腾"并不仅限于黄金。白银涨势更为迅猛，年内涨幅超67%跑赢黄金，价格逼近50美元。 与此同时，钯金价格周三飙升近10%，涨至1482美元以上，创下自2023年5月以来的最大单日涨幅。 贵金属一涨势的背后，是地缘政治紧张、对美元强度的担忧、美联储独立性问题、持续的通胀压力以及欧洲经济增长乏力等一系列风险因素的叠 加。 分析师认为，目前几乎看不到能阻止这轮涨势的因素，并预测此轮金属牛市可能延续至2026年。 黄金为何再创历史新高？ 黄金此轮牛市的核心驱动力，是全球范围内弥漫的避险需求。 市场普遍认为，从特朗普政府的贸易关税政策到俄乌冲突，再到对通胀的担忧，几乎所有传统的黄金驱动因素都在同时发挥作用。法国巴黎银行 分析师David Wilson表示： 如果你是一名投资者，你会把钱放在哪里？如果你担心美国经济和债务前景，你还会想买传统的避险资产美国国债吗？答案是否定 的。 除了个人投资者的避险需求，各国央行的持续买入也为金价提供了坚实支撑。 根据咨询公司 ...

一场席卷全球的避险浪潮，正在将贵金属市场推向"沸腾"的顶点。 在全球多重风险因素叠加下， 黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口，年内涨幅已达54%。 而市场的"沸腾"并不仅限于黄金。白银涨势更为迅猛，年内涨幅超67%跑赢黄金，价格逼近50美元。 与此同时，钯金价格周三飙升近10%，涨至1482美元以上，创下自2023年5月以来的最大单日涨幅。 贵金属一涨势的背后，是地缘政治紧张、对美元强度的担忧、美联储独立性问题、持续的通胀压力以及欧洲经济增长乏力等一系列风险因素的叠加 。 分析师认为，目前几乎看不到能阻止这轮涨势的因素，并预测此轮金属牛市可能延续至2026年。 黄金为何再创历史新高？ 在强劲的基本面支撑下 ，市场对金价的预期持续走高。 黄金此轮牛市的核心驱动力，是全球范围内弥漫的避险需求。 市场普遍认为，从特朗普政府的贸易关税政策到俄乌冲突，再到对通胀的担忧，几乎所有传统的黄金驱动因素都在同时发挥作用。法国巴黎银行分析师David Wilson表示： 如果你是一名投资者，你会把钱放在哪里？如果你担心美国经济和债务前景，你还会想买传统的避险资产美国国债吗？答案是否定的。 除了个人投资者的避险需求，各国央 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market possesses dual attributes as both an industrial and precious metal, with over 60% of its demand stemming from industrial uses, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector [2][4][8] - The development of the PV industry significantly impacts silver demand, necessitating close attention to applications in PV and conductive materials, as well as macroeconomic factors like central bank policies and the dollar's performance [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite recent increases in silver prices, investor sentiment remains disappointed due to silver's higher short-term volatility compared to gold and a slowdown in PV demand growth, which raises concerns about future price trajectories [2][8] - The price relationship between silver and gold remains fundamentally unchanged, indicating a strong correlation where silver has not diverged from gold's trends [2][9] - Historical patterns suggest that surges in silver prices often signal the end of a precious metals bull market and a potential hard landing for the U.S. economy, which could lead to rapid price increases following quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - The current market is viewed as being in a "catch-up" phase, where silver prices are expected to rise alongside a continuing gold bull market, albeit at a slower pace than during a full bull run [2][18] Important but Overlooked Content - The silver market has shown an upward trend despite not meeting the high expectations set for it, particularly in the context of the ongoing gold bull market, which has seen gold prices approach $3,500 [6][12] - The interplay between silver and gold prices is influenced by broader economic conditions, including the potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy and subsequent monetary policy responses [10][21] - The demand for silver in industrial applications, especially in the PV sector, is critical for its price outlook, and any shortfall in this demand could adversely affect silver prices [10][32] - The concept of "hidden inventory" in the silver market complicates price predictions, as fluctuations in this inventory do not always correlate directly with market prices [29][31] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of silver prices will depend on multiple factors, including the development of the PV industry, global macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of related precious metals markets like gold and platinum [7][21] - The potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy remains a key factor that could trigger significant price movements in silver, similar to past market behaviors [13][14] - Investors are advised to focus on the overall trend in precious metals rather than short-term fluctuations, as the long-term outlook remains positive amid ongoing gold market strength [20][22]

格隆汇9月19日｜亚洲早盘铜价上涨，无视美元走强。伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜合约上涨0.35%，至 每吨9,020.00美元。花旗分析师在一份报告中表示，受美联储新的偏宽松领导层、美国利率下降以及美 元面临下行压力的前景支撑，贵金属牛市可能在2026年扩大并转移到贱金属。花旗认为铜价风险均衡， 因近期实物需求方面的不利因素抵消了从2026年起更具建设性的宏观和基本面背景的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision has led to increased volatility in the precious metals market, with gold prices briefly surpassing $3700 per ounce before retreating significantly [1] - Analysts indicate that the market had already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, and the lack of a more aggressive reduction led to a pullback in precious metal prices [1] - The short-term price pressure on precious metals is attributed to dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the U.S. economic outlook is not pessimistic and that there is no need for rapid rate adjustments [1] Group 2 - The recent strong performance of global equity markets has reduced the attractiveness of gold, with Chinese investors selling gold ETFs to invest in stocks [2] - The appreciation of the RMB has caused domestic gold prices to lag behind international prices, while positive economic growth expectations globally are also suppressing precious metal prices [2] - The primary trading logic in the gold market remains centered around expectations of monetary policy easing from the Fed and other central banks [2] Group 3 - Short-term forecasts suggest that precious metal prices are likely to remain in a high-level consolidation phase, while the long-term bullish trend remains intact [3] - Key economic indicators such as U.S. employment, PMI, and inflation data will influence the Fed's rate cut decisions and subsequently affect precious metal prices [3] - The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals is supported by factors such as rising U.S. government debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and continued central bank gold purchases [3]

机构分析指出，在美联储政策转向预期、避险需求激增及供需结构失衡等多重因素共振下，贵金属牛市 或进入加速阶段。市场看涨情绪继续保持，此前预期的4000美元/盎司黄金目标价可能较早实现。 随着金价再破前高，贵金属市场再次迎来大涨。9月16日，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中最高触及 3731.9美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。国内沪金期货收盘报842.08元/克，9月以来累计涨幅达7.37%。白银 价格也持续走高，截至发稿，COMEX白银期货涨至逾43美元/盎司，沪银期货最高触及10152元/千克。 9月以来，国际金价上涨加快，截至目前已累计上涨超6%，超过8月份5%的月涨幅。随着行情突破3700 美元/盎司的关键点位，机构对贵金属的目标价预期进一步上调。摩根士丹利将黄金年底目标价设定为 每盎司3800美元，强调黄金与美元的强负相关性是关键定价逻辑。瑞银预测到2026年6月金价将升至每 盎司3700美元，并提到在地缘政治或经济状况恶化的情况下，不排除金价升至4000美元的可能性。 永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，未来黄金还具备进一步上行的空间。短期内美联储独立性可能受 到冲击，且市场对于2026年的降息预期将持续加强 ...

来源：智通财经 截至2025年9月17日 10:22，黄金ETF基金(159937)下跌0.57%，最新报价7.97元。拉长时间看，截至2025年9月16日，黄金ETF基金近1周累计上涨0.73%。 流动性方面，黄金ETF基金盘中换手2.2%，成交6.32亿元。拉长时间看，截至9月16日，黄金ETF基金近1周日均成交7.85亿元，居可比基金前2。 北京时间周四凌晨2:00，美联储将公布利率决议，美联储主席将于北京时间周四凌晨2:30出席新闻发布会 据报道，周二（9月16日），现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司3700美元大关，盘中触及3702.93美元的历史峰值，最终收于3689.60美元。这一里程碑式的上涨并 非偶然，而是市场对美联储降息预期的直接反应，美元指数暴跌，叠加地缘政治风险、央行购金热潮和美元疲软等多重因素的共振结果。周三亚市早盘现货 黄金高位震荡，目前交投于3691.23美元/盎司。 消息面上，美国经济走弱迹象逐渐清晰。美国2025年度非农就业初步基准修正大幅下调91.1万人，显著低于预期的下调70万人，前值为下调59.8万人。此 外，虽然官方失业率仅有4.3%，但若统计目前从事兼职（part-time ...

随着金价再破前高，贵金属大涨行情又至。 9月16日，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中最高触及3731.9美元／盎司，再次刷新历史纪录。国内沪金期货收盘报842.08元／克，9月以来累计涨幅达7.37%。 除了黄金，白银价格也持续走高，截至发稿，COMEX白银期货涨至逾43美元／盎司，沪银期货最高触及10152元／千克。 机构分析指出，在美联储政策转向预期、避险需求激增及供需结构失衡等多重因素共振下，贵金属牛市或进入加速阶段。市场看涨情绪也继续保持，此前预 期的4000美元／盎司黄金目标价或较此前预测更快兑现。 金价再破前高，外资机构进一步上调目标价预期 9月以来，国际金价上涨按下加速键，截至目前已累计上涨超6%，超过8月份5%的月涨幅。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管卡斯滕·门克（Carsten Menke）分析称，伴随金价上涨，白银目标价有所上调，市场也开始看好银价未来走势。 门克表示，市场对美元走软和美联储降息的关注，会进一步推动贵金属价格上涨。由于白银市场的规模不到黄金市场的十分之一，相对更少的资金便可推动 价格发生变化，这使得白银市场更易急剧波动。近期白银投资需求增加的同时，短期风险积累也在快速增加。 此外 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3731.9 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and imbalances in supply and demand [1][3] - Domestic gold futures in Shanghai closed at 842.08 yuan per gram, with a cumulative increase of 7.37% since September [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the bull market for precious metals may be entering an accelerated phase, with some foreign institutions predicting that gold prices could rise to $5000 per ounce in the future [1][3]