1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

Group 1 - The US consumer confidence index for November dropped to 88.7, marking a seven-month low and falling short of market expectations [1] - The index decreased by 6.8 from the revised October figure, with the present situation index at 126.9, down 4.3, and the expectations index at 63.2, down 8.6 [1] - A reading below 80 typically indicates a potential recession [1] Group 2 - Consumers under 35 showed an increase in confidence, while those aged 35 and above experienced a decline, with the largest drop among those aged 55 and older [1] - The confidence index for consumers earning less than $15,000 increased, while other income groups saw declines [1] - Inflation and prices remain the primary concerns for consumers, followed by tariffs, trade, and political issues [2] Group 3 - Retail sales in September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, but the growth rate slowed compared to August and fell below market expectations [2] - Economists project a 3% growth for the US economy in Q3, with a slowdown expected in Q4, primarily due to the impact of the government shutdown [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the economic situation in October 2025 and the fourth - quarter economic outlook under the support of macro - policies. It predicts various economic and financial data such as industrial added value, social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, trade, inflation, GDP, and social financing credit [11]. - Although the third - quarter economic growth slowed down, with the implementation of policies like 5000 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments and 5000 - billion - yuan local government debt balance quota, the economy is expected to achieve the annual growth target of about 5% [11][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Added Value - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in October will be 5.5%. In October, the economic prosperity declined, still in the contraction range. The production and new order indexes decreased, and the new export order was at the second - lowest level of the year. The price index showed a "hot - upstream, cold - downstream" pattern, and the economic operation had obvious structural differentiation [13]. - Looking forward, high - tech manufacturing and consumer - related manufacturing are expected to maintain resilience. However, considering the possible weakening of policy effects in the fourth quarter, combined with the weak real estate and insufficient export momentum, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the fourth quarter is expected to be 5.3% [1][20]. 2. Social Retail Sales - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in October will be 3.0%. The real - estate post - cycle consumption and automobile sales in October may not provide strong support for social retail sales, but the service industry PMI is in the expansion range, and the consumer demand in industries such as transportation and entertainment is strong [26][28]. - In the fourth quarter, due to the weakening of the "trade - in" policy effect, slow income growth, and the high - base effect of the previous year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales is expected to be about 3.1% [2][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - It is estimated that the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in October will be - 0.7%. Infrastructure investment may decline in October, real - estate investment may continue to bottom out, while manufacturing investment maintains resilience [33][34][36]. - In the fourth quarter, fixed - asset investment is expected to continue to operate at a low level. Although policies such as new policy - based financial instruments and local government debt balance quota are in place, factors like the end of policy tool investment and the possible continued bottoming of the real - estate market may lead to a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of about - 0.5% [37]. 4. Trade 4.1 Export - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of exports in October will be 3.0%. Although the US has imposed additional tariffs on some industries, overall external demand remains resilient. The global manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50.8%. The export volume to the US decreased, while that to ASEAN countries remained strong. The fourth - quarter export year - on - year growth rate is expected to be 2.5% [42][44][48]. 4.2 Import - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of imports in October will be 3.0%. The import sub - item of the manufacturing PMI in October decreased, and the import is expected to decline compared with September. However, with the reduction of trade frictions and the release of domestic demand in the second half of the year, the annual import growth rate may turn slightly positive [50]. 5. Inflation - In terms of CPI, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of CPI in October will be flat. In October, the pork price continued to decline, while the agricultural product wholesale price increased significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of CPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about 0.3% [55]. - Regarding PPI, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in October will be - 2.2%. The price of upstream raw materials such as coal and steel fluctuated, while non - ferrous metals strengthened. The PPI in October is expected to show a trend of "month - on - month improvement and narrowing year - on - year decline", and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about - 2.3% [62]. 6. GDP - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter will be 4.6%. In October, the manufacturing PMI showed a "weak supply and demand" pattern. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally, but the annual growth target of about 5% can be achieved [68]. 7. Social Financing Credit 7.1 Credit - It is predicted that the new credit in October will be 3300 billion yuan. In October, the bill rate fluctuated downward, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The new credit of various sectors is estimated as follows: enterprise short - term loans will increase by - 1500 billion yuan, enterprise long - term loans will increase by 1800 billion yuan, household short - term loans will increase by 100 billion yuan, household long - term loans will increase by 900 billion yuan, and bill financing will increase by 2000 billion yuan [74][86]. 7.2 Social Financing - It is expected that the new social financing in October will be 1.0 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is expected to be 8.6%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 5500 billion yuan, the net financing of enterprise bonds is about 1900 billion yuan, and the non - standard financing is about - 1600 billion yuan. The M2 year - on - year growth rate in October is expected to fall to 8.0% [87][93].

Sino-US Relations - 美国总统特朗普表示与中国国家主席习近平举行了非常成功的会晤，两国之间有着深厚的相互尊重基础 [1] - 特朗普指出，双方在许多方面达成了共识，其他一些至关重要的问题也即将得到解决 [1] - 中国已授权开始大量采购大豆、高粱和其他农产品 [1]

央视：习近平指出，特朗普总统当选以来，我们3次通话，多次互致信函，保持密切联系，共同引领中美关系保持总体稳定。前几天，两国经贸团队在吉隆坡举行了新一轮磋商，就解决各自当前的主要关切达成基本共识，也为我们今天的会晤提供了必要条件。中美两国国情不同，难免有一些分歧，作为世界前两大经济体，时而也会有摩擦，这很正常。面对风浪和挑战，我和特朗普总统作为掌舵人，应当把握好方向、驾驭住大局，让中美关系这艘大船平稳前行。习近平强调，中国的发展振兴同特朗普总统要实现的“让美国再次伟大”是并行不悖的，中美两国完全可以相互成就、共同繁荣。中美两国应当做伙伴、做朋友，这是历史的启示，也是现实的需要。我愿继续同特朗普总统一道，为中美关系打下一个稳固的基础，也为我们两国各自发展营造良好的环境。特朗普总统热心推动地区热点问题解决，中方也一直在以自己的方式就当前各种热点问题劝和促谈。当今世界还有很多难题，中国和美国可以共同展现大国担当，携手多办一些有利于两国和世界的大事、实事、好事。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):央视：当地时间10月30日中午，国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤，会晤正式开始。 ...

Diplomatic Relations & Trade - South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung will discuss trade, investment, and peace on the Korean Peninsula with Trump [1] - Lee Jae-myung will present Trump with a golden crown model, hoping for tangible cooperation results from Trump's visit [1] Political Significance - Trump received the Grand Order of Mugunghwa (South Korea's highest honor), a first for a US president [1]

Geopolitical & Economic Relations - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung plans to discuss trade, investment, and peace on the Korean Peninsula with Donald Trump [1] - The meeting aims to foster tangible cooperation outcomes, potentially impacting economic ties and investment flows [1] Symbolic Diplomacy - Lee Jae-myung intends to present Trump with a golden crown model as a gesture of goodwill [1] - The gift symbolizes a desire for strengthened relations and potential collaborations [1]

Trade Relations & Investment - China aims to upgrade the Free Trade Agreement with Australia [1] - China will continue to support Chinese companies to invest in Australia [1] - China hopes Australia will provide a fair and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese investments [1] - Restoring trade with China has significantly benefited Australian workers and businesses [1] Economic Significance - Australia-China relationship is crucial for economic security and stability [1] - China is Australia's largest trading partner [1]

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Oct. 24, 2025: Dow Tops 47,000 After CPI Inflation Report Last Updated: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 4%, gold futures slipped 0.9% to $4,109 an ounce, and the dollar was up 0.1% against a weighted basket of its peers. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 0.3% to $61.58 a barrel. Updated 11 hours ago Markets Chase Record Highs. Stock Futures Rise Ahead of CPI Inflation Report. By George Glover Stock futures were rising Friday as investors waite ...

Group 1 - The research team, led by the Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Xian Hui, conducted a study in Shanghai focusing on strengthening youth exchanges among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Macau [1][2] - The team visited various enterprises and youth incubation bases, engaging with local youth representatives to understand the depth of interactions and exchanges among the youth from these regions [1] - The research team emphasized the importance of the central government's focus on Hong Kong and Macau youth development since the 18th National Congress, highlighting Xi Jinping's significant remarks as guidance for future work [1] Group 2 - The team pointed out the need to implement practical measures to enhance youth exchanges, including internship and employment programs for Hong Kong and Macau youth, while also encouraging mainland youth to engage with their counterparts in these regions [2] - There is a call for collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong to leverage their respective advantages in advancing the construction of three major centers, aiming for deeper cooperation and contributing to China's modernization efforts [2] - Key officials from the National Committee and local government participated in the discussions, indicating a coordinated effort to support youth integration into the national development framework [2]