2025年即将划上句号，回望这一年的中国经济，无论是对内还是对外，又是整个国家克服巨大困难的一年。这一年走得不容易，成效也看得出来。本周召 开的中央经济工作会议提出的八项任务中，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场被放在了首位。那么未来的一年，中国经济将会取得什么样的进展，新的重 要政策和措施将如何更精准地抵达企业和个人？ 2026中国经济 在复杂而不确定的外部环境下，中国外贸的驱动力来自何处？数据显示，今年前11个月，我国对美国出口同比下降18.9%，比去年同期减少897.6亿美元。 与此同时，我国对东盟的出口，比去年同期多出723.76亿美元，对欧盟出口比去年同期增长384亿美元，从而弥补了对美出口的下降。此外，我国对非 洲、拉美等经济体出口，增速也在加快。 中国国际经济交流中心研究员 张茉楠：在2018年之后，我们逐步实现了贸易的多元化，特别是市场的多元化，比如说东南亚、非洲和拉美等，逐步形成 了我们多元化的布局。贸易的多元化，使得我们会减少对单一市场的依赖。 中国出口的逆势增长，离不开外贸企业的竞争力。数据显示，民营企业已经成为稳住外贸大盘的主力军。前11个月，民营企业进出口23.52万亿元，逆势 增长7. ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy faced significant challenges but showed resilience, with a focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [1][15] - China's total import and export value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, and a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD for the first time [1][3] Trade Dynamics - Despite a decline in exports to the US by 18.9%, China saw increased exports to ASEAN and the EU, indicating a diversification of trade markets [4][6] - Private enterprises have become the mainstay of foreign trade, with their imports and exports growing by 7.1%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [6][8] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to boost domestic demand and consumer spending, with a focus on addressing the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [19][25] - The proportion of final consumption in GDP reached 56.6%, indicating room for growth compared to developed countries [17] Policy Initiatives - A new initiative to implement a "rural and urban residents' income increase plan" aims to enhance income levels and stimulate consumption [27][28] - The government plans to optimize policies related to consumption, including doubling the budget for the "two new" policies to 300 billion yuan, which has already driven significant sales growth [26][30] Market Stability and Quality Improvement - The focus is shifting from quantity to quality in production, with measures to combat "involution" in various industries [21][24] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market to boost consumer confidence, with policies to manage inventory and improve supply [33][35]

"我们发现，许多东南亚出口商提高了对美出口商品的价格，它们已经把部分成本压力转嫁给美国消费者。"近 日，野村亚洲（除日本外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时说。 10月，美国特朗普政府在东盟峰会期间与泰国、马来西亚、柬埔寨和越南等东盟国家达成贸易相关协议。外界 认为，美关税政策对东南亚经贸的负面影响将是显著的。联合国开发计划署（UNDP）的报告预测，随着关税 引发价格上涨，东南亚对美出口总额或下降9.7%。 Varma称，由于美国关税政策，亚洲出口商可能面临一些成本转嫁压力和利润率压力，但总体而言，亚洲的出 口仍将保持稳健，"一个明显的变化是，大多数亚洲国家正在寻找新市场，远离美国市场、实现市场多元化。" 与此同时，中国与东南亚的经贸合作展现出强劲的韧性。海关总署数据显示，今年前三季度，中国货物贸易进 出口总值33.61万亿元人民币，同比增长4%。东盟继续保持中国第一大贸易伙伴地位。中国与东盟贸易总值为 5.57万亿元，增长9.6%，占中国外贸总值的16.6%。 10月，中国—东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书正式签署。Varma认为，这一协定将有利于中国和东盟国家在新兴领 ...

12月8日，海关总署公布了今年前11个月的外贸数据，我国贸易顺差首次超1万亿美元。民营企业成为外 贸稳定增长的核心支柱，占我国外贸总值的57.1%。 此外，我国也面临着复杂的国内国际形势，不断推动稳外贸的政策，包括出口信贷、支持贸易的便利化 措施、海关通关的措施，使一些企业纾困的压力大大减缓。 中国对美出口下降 但全球贸易地位为何不降反升？ 张茉楠：我觉得中美之间现在的变化，也恰恰体现了全球化时代深度依存的关系。中国对美国的贸易出 口出现了很大的降幅，但中国作为全球贸易大国，中国在全球的贸易顺差这样一种分量其实不降反升， 我国对很多国家其实都是保持了贸易不断发展。尽管与美国的贸易有所下降，但是中国对全球的贸易增 长反而越来越紧密，比如我们与不同的贸易伙伴之间，形成了更加稳定、更加紧密的贸易互惠关系。 一方面体现了中国作为全球贸易增长引擎的地位。另外，中国近些年来，不断去拓展贸易多元化或者贸 易结构升级，现在在全球的一些比如高技术产品中，中国不可替代性的角色越来越明显了。比如欧盟对 中国的新能源汽车、工业设备，还有轨道交通这些产品的需求实际上都是在增长的，这是双方在产业结 构分工和贸易结构变化之间的客观结果，也 ...

出口产品结构升级，新兴市场多点开花，我国外贸韧性来自哪里？明年的外贸怎么干，如何继续焕发中国活力？《新闻1+1》连线中国国际经 济交流中心研究员张茉楠，带来分析解读。 12月8日，海关总署公布了今年前11个月的外贸数据，我国贸易顺差首次超1万亿美元。民营企业成为外贸稳定增长的核心支柱，占我国外贸总 值的57.1%。 张茉楠：我觉得中美之间现在的变化，也恰恰体现了全球化时代深度依存的关系。中国对美国的贸易出口出现了很大的降幅，但中国作为全球 贸易大国，中国在全球的贸易顺差这样一种分量其实不降反升，我国对很多国家其实都是保持了贸易不断发展。尽管与美国的贸易有所下降， 但是中国对全球的贸易增长反而越来越紧密，比如我们与不同的贸易伙伴之间，形成了更加稳定、更加紧密的贸易互惠关系。 一方面体现了中国作为全球贸易增长引擎的地位。另外，中国近些年来，不断去拓展贸易多元化或者贸易结构升级，现在在全球的一些比如高 技术产品中，中国不可替代性的角色越来越明显了。比如欧盟对中国的新能源汽车、工业设备，还有轨道交通这些产品的需求实际上都是在增 长的，这是双方在产业结构分工和贸易结构变化之间的客观结果，也是我们现在看到的新形势和新变化 ...

12月8日，海关总署公布了今年前11个月的外贸数据，我国贸易顺差首次超1万亿美元。民营企业成为外贸稳定增长的核心支柱，占我国外贸总值的57.1%。 出口产品结构升级，新兴市场多点开花，我国外贸韧性来自哪里？明年的外贸怎么干，如何继续焕发中国活力？《新闻1+1》连线中国国际经济交流中心研 究员张茉楠，带来分析解读。 0:00 中国外贸的韧性，来自哪里？ 中国对美出口下降 但全球贸易地位为何不降反升？ 第三，中国的贸易结构和产业结构在不断优化，向产业链的高端迈进。在贸易结构当中，工业制成品包括集成电路、机械产品和汽车等，现在是整个 贸易增长最重要的支柱和引擎。 此外，我国也面临着复杂的国内国际形势，不断推动稳外贸的政策，包括出口信贷、支持贸易的便利化措施、海关通关的措施，使一些企业纾困的压 力大大减缓。 0:00 0:00 中国国际经济交流中心研究员 张茉楠：今天取得这样的成绩非常来之不易，也是中国在制造业领域、在全球贸易领域中综合优势的体现。 一方面，中国现在是全球最大的贸易大国，也是全球最大的制造业大国，中国在全球制造业中心的地位进一步凸显。比如在全球504个工业产品当中， 我国几乎有绝大部分都居于世界前列或 ...

在近日于南非约翰内斯堡举行的二十国集团（G20）领导人第二十次峰会期间，印度总理莫迪与加拿大 总理卡尼举行双边会谈，双方同意重启印加《全面经济伙伴关系协定》（CEPA）谈判，谈判涵盖货 物、服务、投资、能源、矿产、农业、数字贸易、劳动力流动及可持续发展等诸多领域，并设立了在 2024年基础上，到2030年将印加两国双边贸易额翻一番达到500亿美元的目标。分析人士认为，重启谈 判标志着印加两国关系进一步转暖，也是两国合作对冲美国加征关税举措压力、积极寻求贸易多元化的 共同诉求。 印度与加拿大两国之间的贸易谈判历程相当曲折。15年前的几乎同一时间，在2010年11月的G20首尔峰 会上，时任印度总理辛格与时任加拿大总理哈珀在举行会晤后宣布，两国将正式展开自由贸易谈判，通 过降低关税和非关税壁垒达成促进双边贸易的目标。2015年，莫迪首个任期访问加拿大，两国签署铀供 应合同，加强核能合作，当时印加两国都对进一步达成贸易协议惠及双边贸易抱有很大期望。 卡尼表示，新贸易协议可强化印加贸易关系，并为两国企业提供充实保障，拓展更多合作机遇。面对全 球贸易秩序重组和地缘政治波动，加印两国均意识到加强合作的重要性。为了推动两国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of deepening economic and cultural cooperation between Canada and China, building on their historical trade ties that began in the 1970s with the first wheat exports [1] - Canada is actively seeking to diversify its trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. market, with China being a significant partner in this strategy [1] - Canada aims to learn from China's advancements in rare earth processing and electric vehicle technology, indicating potential areas for collaboration [1] Group 2 - The "2025 Chengdu International Forum" held in Guangzhou gathered over 200 participants, including former heads of state, experts, and business leaders, to discuss global development issues [2] - The forum's theme was "Working Together for a Win-Win Future," covering topics such as global security challenges, governance reforms, and sustainable development [2] - Key discussions included the balance of innovation, safety, and governance in artificial intelligence, as well as the impact of trade and tariff conflicts on global economic trends [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant shift in China's export dynamics, with a projected growth of approximately 1% in 2025, slightly above the global average, highlighting China's continued importance in global trade [1]. Core Insights - China's trade volume has shown a notable increase of 5% year-on-year in recent months, with exports diversifying towards Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and Europe following U.S. tariff impositions [2]. - The reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to reduce ton-mile demand by about 10%, impacting the supply-demand balance and significantly affecting industry profits [4]. - Container shipping companies may face uncertainty between price wars and rational behavior, with the charter market likely to bear most of the pain, leading to potential substantial declines in performance or even losses [4]. Summary by Sections China's Trade Dynamics - In 2025, China's export share in global exports is expected to grow by approximately 1%, indicating a robust position in global trade [1]. - The trade volume for China has increased by 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, maintaining a strong trend without significant slowdown [2]. U.S. Import Trends - U.S. imports are experiencing a temporary decline, with a 7% year-on-year drop in sales for the fourth quarter, potentially accelerating to 10% in winter due to ongoing inventory destocking [3]. - If the U.S. economy stabilizes or improves in 2026, trade volumes are expected to stabilize or grow [3]. Impact of Suez Canal Reopening - The reopening of the Suez Canal could lead to a 10% reduction in ton-mile demand, creating a significant deflationary shock to the industry [4]. - Issues such as port congestion, low production efficiency, and strikes may partially offset the impacts of the Suez Canal reopening [4]. - Companies that diversify their operations and are not solely reliant on maritime business will be less affected by the reopening [4].

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. has severely impacted India's exports, leading to a significant increase in trade deficit, while recent trade negotiations show signs of improvement [1][2][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - India's exports to the U.S. dropped from a peak of $8.8 billion in May 2025 to $5.5 billion in September 2025, resulting in a trade deficit of $32.15 billion in September, the highest in 13 months [1]. - In October, India's exports to the U.S. rebounded to $6.3 billion, a 14.5% month-on-month increase, although this still represented an 8.6% decline compared to the same month in 2024 [1][2]. - Overall, India's merchandise exports fell by 11.8% year-on-year in October, with significant declines in exports to major markets, including a drop of over 50% to Singapore and Australia, and declines exceeding 20% to Italy, the UK, and the Netherlands [2]. Group 2: Government Response - The Indian government has introduced a $5 billion export support scheme aimed at assisting exporters affected by U.S. tariffs and global trade slowdowns, focusing on small and medium enterprises and labor-intensive sectors [3]. - Efforts to diversify trade partnerships are underway, with India accelerating free trade agreement negotiations with the UK, EU, Australia, New Zealand, and Gulf countries [3]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - Recent trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have shown positive developments, particularly in energy and defense procurement, including a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) procurement agreement and a 10-year defense cooperation framework [4]. - The IMF has revised India's economic growth forecast for FY 2025/2026 upward by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6%, indicating potential for sustained economic growth contingent on improved external trade conditions [4].