南方财经21世纪经济报道记者 施诗 上海报道 2025年，在科技创新与宽松货币政策的托举下，全球资产价格普涨，美国三大股指屡创新高，英国富时100指数、日经225指数、中国主要 指数创下近年高点，黄金、白银等大宗商品价格也一路攀升。在这一年里，风险似乎被推迟讨论，增长与上涨成为主流叙事。 当几乎所有资产的价格都在上涨，风险是否正在被低估？吉姆·罗杰斯对此保持高度警惕。他在接受南方财经记者独家专访时表示，宽松 政策长期延续、债务规模持续扩张，正在推高资产价格，也在无形中放大未来调整的冲击。"当所有资产都在上涨时，正是该开始担心的 时候。" 尽管对全球资产泡沫深感不安，但吉姆·罗杰斯依旧持有中国股票，并将其视为跨越代际的资产配置。展望"十五五"，罗杰斯认为中国庞大 且受过良好教育的人口、相对较低的债务水平和持续开放的市场将让中国充满竞争力。"中国是21世纪最具潜力的国家之一。不要放弃投 资中国。我不会放弃投资中国。" 在罗杰斯看来，广东作为中国的经济大省，尽管面临困难与调整，但依然有光明的未来，将继续成为世界的重要经济中心。 展望2026年，罗杰斯建议投资者谨慎行事，既要保持警惕，也要充满希望。 全球市场需警惕泡 ...

华尔街正为2026年美股市场的持续动荡做准备，投资者在对人工智能反弹的错失恐惧症（FOMO）与资 产泡沫即将破裂的焦虑之间反复摇摆。 策略师们指出，过去18个月市场呈现出大规模抛售与快速反转并存的特征，这一趋势极有可能在2026年 延续。随着AI技术革命经历繁荣与萧条的循环，处于投资热潮中心的科技巨头将继续对市场施加巨大 的影响力，其股价的大幅波动预计将成为常态。 除了宏观叙事，技术因素也在重塑期权定价。 花旗集团英国、欧洲、中东及非洲机构结构负责人Antoine Porcheret预计，2026年波动率曲线将加剧陡 峭化。这主要是由于投资流动的失衡：在曲线的短端，量化投资策略（QIS）和波动率卖出策略的显著 增长提供了大量供应，抑制了短期波动率；而在长端，对冲资金流将使波动率保持在高位。 尽管2025年科技股的强劲表现与其他板块的疲软相互抵消，这种各板块间的背离在一定程度上抑制了市 场的实际波动率，但投资者仍需警惕芯片股下跌可能引发的风险扩散。一旦宏观驱动因素重新占据主导 地位，此前被压抑的波动性可能导致Cboe波动率指数（VIX）等指标急剧飙升。 据美国银行的调查显示，尽管股价涨幅令基金经理将泡沫担忧视为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，明年美国股市预计将持续动荡，投资者既存在"FOMO"情绪——害怕错过人工智能 带来的上涨行情，又担心这只是一个即将破裂的泡沫。过去18个月来，美股一直以大幅抛售和快速反弹 为特征。这种趋势可能会持续到2026年，一些策略师预测，人工智能将遵循以往技术革命的繁荣与萧条 周期。 人工智能投资热潮的核心——科技公司——拥有巨大的影响力。尽管科技股与标普500指数其他板块的 走势分化，在一定程度上抑制了2025年整体市场的波动性，因为科技股的上涨抵消了其他板块的下跌， 但投资者仍警惕芯片股的下跌可能蔓延开来。一旦出现这种情况，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX) 等波动率指标将飙升。 瑞银集团衍生品策略师Kieran Diamond表示："2025年总体上是市场轮动和少数领涨股主导的一年，而 不是风险偏好与风险厌恶情绪全面爆发的一年。这有助于将隐含相关性水平拉低至历史低位，进而使 VIX指数面临持续大幅飙升的风险，尤其是在宏观经济因素再次占据主导地位时。" 美国银行最近的一项调查显示，股价飙升的幅度之大，使得泡沫担忧成为基金经理们最主要的顾虑。但 另一个顾虑是，如果股价仍有上涨空间，投资者可能会错 ...

Group 1: Personal Consumption and Living Costs - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, making studying abroad, shopping, and travel cheaper for Chinese families, potentially saving over 10,000 yuan annually for those studying in the U.S. [2] - The appreciation of the yuan results in lower prices for imported consumer goods, such as electronics and luxury items, but may weaken the competitiveness of export goods, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [2] - The decline in returns on dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar-linked investment products, necessitates adjustments in investment strategies for holders [2] Group 2: Corporate and Macroeconomic Impact - Companies reliant on dollar financing, such as those in technology and real estate, benefit from reduced borrowing costs and alleviated pressure from existing dollar-denominated debt [3] - Export-oriented companies facing rising prices for dollar-denominated goods may experience diminished competitiveness, while firms importing raw materials could face increased cost pressures [4] Group 3: Capital Market Fluctuations - Foreign capital may flow back into emerging markets, with sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy in A-shares benefiting from increased liquidity and valuation improvements [5] - Precious metals like gold and silver are driven up by the weaker dollar, although caution is advised as gold prices are at historical highs [6] Group 4: Policy and Long-term Implications - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. reduces depreciation pressure on the yuan, creating favorable conditions for potential interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements in China, which may lead to lower mortgage rates [7] - Short-term stimulus measures could exacerbate asset bubbles in markets like U.S. stocks and real estate, with risks of market reversals if inflation rebounds or economic conditions weaken [8] - Debt pressures in emerging markets remain unresolved, and rapid capital movements could heighten financial volatility [9] Group 5: Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to reduce holdings in dollar-denominated assets and shift towards high-dividend A-share leaders, gold ETFs, and QDII overseas bond funds [10] - Caution is recommended regarding high-valuation assets, with a preference for industries with stable cash flows, such as utilities and consumer staples [11] - Those needing to exchange for dollars should consider doing so during the depreciation period, but long-term holdings should be approached with caution [12] Group 6: Controversies and Uncertainties - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with a 9:3 vote on December rate cuts, and the pace of rate cuts in 2026 remains uncertain, potentially accelerated by political interventions [13] - The interplay between AI expansion by tech giants, which relies on low interest rates, and the potential for increased unemployment and inflation creates policy dilemmas [13] - The current rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are characterized as "preventive" adjustments, with the core issue being the balance between weak employment and persistent inflation, necessitating attention to potential pauses in rate cuts in January 2026, which will directly influence capital flows and policy space [14]

两者同步上涨的现象，至少半个世纪以来都未曾出现过。 导语 国际清算银行（BIS）在最新发布的报告中表示，今年以来黄金与股市价格同步飙升的现象，至少半个 世纪以来都未曾出现过，这可能是两类资产同时存在泡沫的风险。 黄金呈现投机特征 距离2025年收官还有三周时间，在人工智能（AI）及科技板块的收益驱动下，欧美主要股指年内涨幅 均达到两位数。与此同时，黄金年内近60%的涨幅或将创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅，这已经产生了 关于其传统避险资产角色是否已发生转变的热议。 国际清算银行经济顾问兼货币与经济部门主管申铉松（Hyun Song Shin）在该行周一发布年度收官报告 时称："今年黄金的表现与以往常态截然不同。此次一个有趣的现象是，黄金已变得越发像是一种投机 性资产。" 素有 "央行的央行"之称的国际清算银行近年来频繁就股市潜在泡沫发出预警，而此次对于黄金与股市 同涨的担忧则体现在两个层面： 一是若股市与黄金同时崩盘，投资者将何处避险；二是考虑到部分央行一直是黄金的大举买家，这种联 动走势对各国央行及其他储备资产管理者又将意味着什么。 国际清算银行的分析结论显示，今年是过去50年间，黄金与标普500指数首次共 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks collectively declined at the beginning of trading, with notable drops including China Silver Group down 4.29%, Zhaojin Mining down 4.14%, and Zijin Mining down 3.89% [1][2] - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) reported that the simultaneous surge in gold and stock prices this year is unprecedented in at least half a century, indicating potential bubble risks in both asset classes [2] - Retail investors have driven the recent surge in gold prices, shifting gold from a traditional safe-haven asset to a more speculative one, with evidence suggesting that retail participation has amplified this trend [2] Group 2 - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will restrict gold exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00815 | 中国白银集团 | 0.670 | -4.29% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | 27.320 | -4.14% | | 02899 | 三十四年薪 | 32.620 | -3.89% | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 163.500 | -2.79% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 29.220 | -2.40% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 32.980 | -2.14% | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | 138.400 | -2.12% | | 00340 | 滝关黄金 | 2.630 | -1.13% | | 02489 | 集海资源 | 1.230 | -0.81% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 16.900 | -0.12% | 消息上，国际清算银行(BIS)在最新发布的报告中表示，今年以来黄金与股市价格同步飙升的现象，至 少半个世纪以来都未曾出现过，这可能是两类资产同时存在泡沫的风险。散户投资者推动了近期金价飙 升，使黄金脱离了传统 ...

The combination of gold and share prices soaring in unison is a phenomenon not seen in at least half a century and raises questions of a potential bubble in both, global central bank umbrella body, th... ...

2025 年 12 月 4 日，牛津大学。 主持人向桥水基金创始人 Ray Dalio 提问：我们如何看待 AI 带来的社会变革？它和工业革命有什么相 似之处？ Dalio 的回答很简洁： 一切都一样，只是 AI 这次更快、更大。 过去几周，Dalio 连续出现在 CNBC 和沙特未来投资峰会，密集发出警告： AI 确实强大，但估值已经透支了未来 推高市场的不只是技术，更是宽松的货币政策 如果生产力红利无法普惠，社会撕裂会比泡沫更危险 在他眼中，AI 既是生产力奇迹，也可能成为一场集体幻觉。 从1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解，到2008金融危机，再到 2025 年的 AI 热潮，他用 50 年经验，给出了自 己的答案。 这个答案关乎泡沫、关乎风险，也关乎每个人的未来。 第一节｜"生产力奇迹" 有多少被透支了？ AI 确实带来了效率提升。 但问题是：这部分增长，已经被资本市场提前透支了。 今年以来，AI 概念股持续暴涨。英伟达市盈率一度突破 50 倍，Meta、微软、谷歌接连刷新历史新高。 市场讲的是未来十年的故事。 但 Dalio 指出：真正的问题，不是 AI 能不能提升生产力，而是我们是否提前透支了它的全部价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes maintaining low positions and waiting for market stabilization signals due to recent significant market declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.90% and the CSI 500 Index by 5.78% [3][4] - The current market sentiment is under pressure from both domestic and international factors, including weak economic indicators in China and a negative impact from the U.S. tech sector's performance [4][5] - The recommendation is to remain cautious and maintain low positions, particularly in the main board, as there are no signs of increased institutional investment or a bottom-buying signal yet [5] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the short-term economic indicators in China are weakening, with the LPR rates remaining unchanged, which does not meet some investors' expectations [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policies are seen as a significant factor in the current market adjustments, with the latest unemployment rate in the U.S. rising to 4.4%, indicating a weakening job market [4] - The technical analysis suggests that the market has not yet triggered a bottom-buying signal, and the trend has shifted to a broad decline rather than sector rotation [5]