Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of perspective in investment, highlighting that market truths can vary based on individual viewpoints, similar to the philosophical debate illustrated by Su Shi's poem about Mount Lu [2][3][4]. Group 1: Value vs. Trend - The article presents a debate between value investors and trend traders, where value investors argue that current stock valuations are historically high and unsustainable, while trend traders believe in following market momentum as the key to success [5][6]. - Both perspectives are valid within their contexts, but neither is the sole measure of market performance, indicating that market evaluation is complex and multifaceted [6]. Group 2: Long-term vs. Short-term Perspective - Investors are cautioned to avoid being trapped in short-term market fluctuations, which can lead to emotional decision-making. A long-term perspective allows for a more stable view of market trends and potential growth [7]. - Recognizing the long-term upward potential can help investors maintain composure amidst market volatility [7]. Group 3: Establishing Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to adopt a multi-faceted approach, integrating various perspectives such as value and trend, macro and micro factors, to create a comprehensive decision-making framework [8]. - Understanding the essence of profitability in the market is crucial for determining whether to align with or oppose market trends [8]. - Embracing probabilistic thinking rather than seeking absolute truths is essential for mature investment strategies, focusing on the likelihood of success rather than guaranteed outcomes [8][9]. Group 4: Cognitive Development in Investing - The article posits that investing is fundamentally a cognitive journey, requiring both critical observation and humility in recognizing one's knowledge limits [9]. - By learning to navigate the complexities of the market with a flexible mindset, investors can develop their unique investment strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

Market Overview - The major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext index performing relatively strong, while most stocks declined, indicating low market sentiment [1] - The market is expected to continue its adjustment phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both indicating a need for further corrections [3][6] Shanghai Composite Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight adjustment, forming a small bearish candle, signaling a need for correction [3] - The previous week's strong upward movement was accompanied by shrinking trading volume, suggesting insufficient upward momentum [3] - The index is currently in a mid-term adjustment phase, with two potential adjustment methods: either consolidating above recent lows or actively seeking to test the ten-week moving average [3] Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also showed signs of needing adjustment, with the previous week's strong performance not supported by increased trading volume [6] - The index is at a critical turning point on the weekly chart, indicating a need to test the ten-week moving average [6] - Similar to the Shanghai Composite Index, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index is expected to continue its adjustment phase [6] Investment Strategy Insights - The current A-share market environment allows for structural opportunities as long as there are no significant declines in the major indices [7] - Successful trading requires adherence to trend trading principles to achieve stable wave profits, with a focus on analyzing candlestick patterns and structural breaks for entry points [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].

Market Overview - The major indices of the A-share market experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with most stocks declining and 10 stocks hitting the limit down, indicating low market sentiment [1] - In the afternoon, there was a slight upward movement in the A-share market [1] Index Analysis Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai 50 Index showed a significant increase last Thursday, but the corresponding trading volume shrank, indicating a potential adjustment signal [5] - Today marks the fourth effective cycle, with today and tomorrow being critical turning points, suggesting the index is in an adjustment phase [5] - The first hour of trading saw eight effective cycles, with the second hour marking the ninth effective cycle, leading to a rebound [5] - The afternoon session saw limited upward movement in the Shanghai 50 Index, with caution advised against potential pullbacks [5] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index also showed a significant increase last Thursday, but with declining trading volume and a pullback on Friday, indicating ongoing adjustment signals [8] - Today opened high and continued to rise, which contradicts previous signals, suggesting a potential for high-level fluctuations over the next two trading days until a turning point is reached [8] - The first hour of trading last Friday marked a turning point, leading to two hours of upward movement, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the afternoon [8] Conclusion - The current A-share market is likely to see structural trends in individual stocks as long as the major indices do not experience significant declines [8] - Successful trading requires correct trend identification to avoid prolonged losses, emphasizing the importance of trend trading for stable profits [8] - The analysis of K-lines, patterns, and central structures can help accurately grasp price fluctuations, with structural breakouts followed by pullbacks serving as entry points [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of understanding volatility in investment, emphasizing that it is a significant risk factor that can impact investor returns [3][4][11] - It contrasts two funds: Fund A with a 15% annualized return but high volatility, and Fund B with a 10% return and low volatility, suggesting that investors in Fund B may achieve better average returns due to lower drawdowns [10][11] - The article highlights that while volatility is often viewed as a risk, some investment experts, like Warren Buffett, argue that it should not be equated with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [12][14] Group 2 - The article explains that volatility can be seen as a source of potential returns, particularly in trading strategies that embrace market fluctuations [15][20] - It outlines different investor attitudes towards volatility: risk-averse investors view it as a risk to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][24] - The discussion includes various trading strategies that leverage volatility, such as grid trading and trend trading, which require different approaches to managing risk and returns [20][22]

Group 1: Major Index Analysis - The analysis focuses on the monthly and weekly trends of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index [2][5][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has formed two central structures since 2015, indicating a significant upward trend, with a potential to surpass the historical high of 6124 points over the coming years [5] - The adjustment target for the Shanghai Composite Index is set at around 3600 points, based on the monthly five-unit moving average [5] Group 2: Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has a large central structure on the monthly level, primarily aimed at repairing the twenty-unit moving average [8] - The adjustment for the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index is determined by the weekly level, with the adjustment target near the ten-unit moving average [8] - The index has completed three effective cycles and is approaching a turning point, indicating a need for technical repair [8] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current A-share market is expected to see continuous structural opportunities for individual stocks as long as the major indices do not experience significant declines [9] - Successful trend trading is essential for achieving stable profits, with structural breakouts providing entry points for investments [9]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index performing relatively strong, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index was weaker [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced significant fluctuations, with a large drop followed by a rebound, indicating potential distribution by major funds and signaling a possible double top formation [4] - The current upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a critical turning point after 20 effective cycles, suggesting a high probability of a mid-term adjustment [4] Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rebounded after hitting a low, heavily influenced by the performance of Cambrian [5] - The index's K-line showed a long lower shadow and a small body, indicating weakness rather than strong support [5] - The recent upward trend has completed 10+4 effective cycles, with upcoming turning points in both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a probable adjustment next week [5] General Market Outlook - The current A-share market allows for structural opportunities as long as there is no significant decline in the major indices, but correct trends are essential to avoid prolonged losses [6] - Successful trend trading is emphasized as a means to achieve stable wave profits, with a focus on analyzing K-lines, patterns, and central structures for accurate trend predictions [6]

Core Insights - The article narrates the transformation of an ordinary construction worker, Chen Xiaoping, into a successful trader, highlighting his journey through various trading strategies and experiences [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Journey - In 2008, Chen Xiaoping began his trading career while working in the construction industry, initially focusing on technical indicators but later realizing the importance of fundamental analysis [2][5]. - By early 2012, he made a significant profit by heavily investing in a commodity that was experiencing a production decline, turning an initial investment of 100,000 into 600,000 within a month [5][6]. - However, from 2013 to 2018, he faced challenges due to over-reliance on fundamental analysis, leading to inconsistent trading results [7]. Group 2: System Development - After suffering substantial losses in 2019 from a failed apple futures trade, Chen took three years to reflect and reconstruct his trading system [8][9]. - He developed a three-step trading approach named "Trend Calculation," inspired by "The Art of War," which emphasizes thorough analysis, patience, and strict risk management [10][9]. Group 3: Recent Success - In 2023, Chen returned to the futures market with a new mindset and a starting capital of around 100,000, achieving a remarkable growth to 30 million within ten months [11][12]. - He participated in a national trading competition, initially aiming for a modest ranking but ended up winning the championship by effectively capitalizing on market trends [12]. - His trading performance included a maximum drawdown of 71.99% and a total net profit of approximately 18.34 million, showcasing a high-risk, high-reward strategy [15].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound after two days of decline, with major indices recovering losses from the previous week, primarily due to Trump's increasing influence over Federal Reserve personnel and market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - In the past 24 hours, a total of 83,048 individuals were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $212 million, including $69.9 million from long positions and $142 million from short positions [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates an 80% probability of interest rate cuts following the impact of the recent non-farm payroll data, although expert opinions may quickly reverse [2] - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations between $104,000 and $115,500, with potential upward movement towards $116,411 [2] - Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded strongly, reaching $3,725, and is at a critical resistance level; a breakthrough could confirm a reversal [4] Group 3 - The dominance of Bitcoin is declining, while Ethereum and altcoins are expected to rise, with altcoins following Ethereum's lead [6] - Recent trading activity has shown significant profits, with one asset, $LIZARD, surging to a market value of $12 million, indicating a potential for substantial future gains [6]