Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings [1] 2. Core Views - Aluminum is expected to have a slight rebound, alumina will experience range - bound fluctuations, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,810, with changes of 775 compared to T - 1, - 495 compared to T - 5, 1480 compared to T - 22, and 2900 compared to T - 66. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 319, with changes of 3099 compared to T - 1, 43 compared to T - 5, - 114 compared to T - 22, and 143 compared to T - 66. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have corresponding changes [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2809, with changes of 37 compared to T - 1, 75 compared to T - 5, 255 compared to T - 22, and 9 compared to T - 66. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have corresponding changes [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,215, with changes of 375 compared to T - 1 and - 840 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The spot premium/discount is - 220, the Shanghai bonded area premium is 175, the EU Rotterdam aluminum ingot premium (MB) is 345.0. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 7054.75, and the import profit and loss of aluminum spot and 3M also have corresponding values. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 82.90 million tons, the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts are 15.07 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory is 49.52 million tons [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 2646, the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port (USD/ton) is 330, and the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port (CNY/ton) is 2720. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises is 896 [1] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea, as well as the price of Yangquan bauxite, have corresponding values and changes [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 81, the price of Baotai ADC12 is 23,000, and the difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 is - 290. The total inventory of three places has corresponding changes [1] 3.3 Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [2] - **External News**: Fed Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts are needed this year. The US House of Representatives approved a government financing bill to end a partial shutdown [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, as stated by Stephen Miran, a Trump-appointed director [1] - Miran emphasizes that potential inflation is not a concern and that there is not much strong price pressure observed in the economy, which supports his call for significant rate cuts [1] - He points out that better economic growth in the future does not require higher interest rates, indicating that the rise in long-term yields is partly due to improved growth expectations rather than increased inflation fears [1] Group 2 - Miran expresses anticipation for Kevin Warsh's performance as the next Federal Reserve Chair, following Trump's nomination of Warsh [1] - The market is speculating on a more hawkish balance sheet policy under Warsh's leadership, reflecting a shift in expectations regarding monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to 96, marking an almost 11% decline over the past year, which is the lowest level in four years, raising concerns about the implications for the economy [1][6] - President Trump has expressed that he is "not concerned" about the dollar's decline, despite its potential impact on imports, fuel costs, and interest rates [1][2] Economic Factors - The dollar's weakness is attributed to global investor skepticism regarding U.S. dollar-denominated assets, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions [2] - As of Q3 2025, approximately 57% of global foreign-exchange reserves are held in dollars, indicating its continued dominance despite a gradual decline [3] Market Reactions - Analysts have noted a "Sell America" trend, where investors are offloading U.S. stocks, bonds, and dollars, leading to a surge in gold prices, which reached over $5,500 an ounce, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets [4][6] Impact on Consumers - A weaker dollar is expected to increase costs for imported goods, fuel, and interest rates on loans, affecting various aspects of consumer finances [5][7] - The Trump tariffs have already raised prices on electronics, clothing, and vehicles, and a weaker dollar will exacerbate these costs [7] Investment Strategies - To mitigate the effects of dollar instability, diversifying into non-dollar assets like international stocks and bonds is recommended, as evidenced by the MSCI All Country World ex-USA Index's 29% gain in 2025 compared to the S&P 500's 17% [5][9] - Alternative stores of value, such as gold and silver, are suggested as hedges against dollar weakness, although their high prices may pose risks if the dollar strengthens [9]

黄金白银不断刷新历史新高！ 石油方面，随着伊朗局势升温，国际油价集体飘红。WTI原油涨近1.8%，报63.5美元/桶，ICE布油涨超1.6%，报67.68美元/桶，同步升至2025年9月以来高 点。 警惕！ 上期所、上金所双双发布通知 29日，现货黄金冲上5500美元/盎司！ | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 5487.560 | 昨结 | 5417.747 开营 | 5416.334 | | | +69.813 +1.29% | | 总量(kq) 0.00 现手 | O | | | 最高价 5598.750 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 0 | | | 最低价 5416.260 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 0 | | | 42 | 五日 EK 周K | | 日末 | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- | 盘口 | | | 5598.750 | | 3.34% 卖1 | 5489.212 - 0 | | | | | ਸੀ। | 5488.888 0 08:06 5488.000 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that international spot gold has stabilized above the $5,000 mark and is making a push towards $5,300 per ounce, recording over a 20% increase at the start of the year, marking the best performance since 1980 [1] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are supported and have momentum to rise further, global economic resilience may pose a challenge to gold's upward trajectory [2] - The driving factors behind gold's rise include concerns over unchecked fiscal debt expansion, the weakening of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and persistent inflation worries, although these concerns have not yet materialized into severe market reactions [3] Group 2 - There is an increasing risk of long-term consolidation for gold rather than a significant pullback, as the structural logic supporting gold remains intact [4] - In contrast, there are greater concerns regarding silver, which has seen its best start to the year since records began in 1972, with a nearly 60% increase in January alone [5] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to retail participation, speculative positions, and investor anxiety, leading to historical high levels compared to gold and platinum, which may disrupt industrial demand [5]

现货黄金日内大涨100美元，涨幅1.93%，最新突破5280美元/盎司。 在金价再创历史新高之际，有分析师表示， 黄金价格仍受到有力支撑，并且有足够的上涨动力 ，但他同时也警告称，颇具韧性的全球经济 可能会给这种贵金属带来逆风。 在周二发布的一份报告中，盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示， 投机热潮可能会将黄金价格推高至每盎司5500美元 。 Hansen补充道，尽管避险需求或开始降温，但他认为， 短期内黄金不会出现大幅回调 。 "我们认为，黄金出现长期盘整的风险正不断上升，而非迫在眉睫的大幅回调，支撑黄金上涨的整体结构性逻辑仍未被打破。"他 称。 "金价上涨的驱动因素早已明确，且主要源于市场担忧：无节制的财政债务扩张引发的焦虑、美元走弱并推动资金流向其他地区、 难以预测的美国总统所引发的地缘政治不确定性，及持续存在的通胀担忧。"Hansen指出。 "但值得注意的是，目前这些担忧中的大多数尚未成为现实。美国财政债务规模持续攀升，但市场目前的反应主要体现为收益率曲 线趋陡——因投资者要求为长期风险获得更高溢价；美元虽走弱但并未崩盘，而地缘政治紧张局势也尚未升级为更具破坏性的局 面。"他称。 ...

Hansen补充道，尽管避险需求或开始降温，但他认为，短期内黄金不会出现大幅回调。 "我们认为，黄金出现长期盘整的风险正不断上升，而非迫在眉睫的大幅回调，支撑黄金上涨的整体结 构性逻辑仍未被打破。"他称。 白银已进入泡沫区域 1月28日，周三，国际金价涨势不减再创新高，首次突破5200美元/盎司。2026年以来，这种贵金属已上 涨约20%，创下自 1980 年以来的最佳开局。 在金价再创历史新高之际，有分析师表示，黄金价格仍受到有力支撑，并且有足够的上涨动力，但他同 时也警告称，颇具韧性的全球经济可能会给这种贵金属带来逆风。 在周二发布的一份报告中，盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，投机热潮可能会将黄金价格推 高至每盎司5500美元。 "金价上涨的驱动因素早已明确，且主要源于市场担忧：无节制的财政债务扩张引发的焦虑、美元走弱 并推动资金流向其他地区、难以预测的美国总统所引发的地缘政治不确定性，及持续存在的通胀担 忧。"Hansen指出。 "但值得注意的是，目前这些担忧中的大多数尚未成为现实。美国财政债务规模持续攀升，但市场目前 的反应主要体现为收益率曲线趋陡——因投资者要求为长期风险获得更高溢 ...

Market Performance - On January 16, US stock markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.17%, S&P 500 down 0.06%, and Nasdaq down 0.06% [3] - The large-cap technology stocks showed mixed performance, with the index of the seven major US tech companies falling by 0.3% [3] - Notable individual stock movements included Microsoft and Amazon rising, while Apple fell over 1% [3] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector saw most stocks rise, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 1.15%. Micron Technology surged over 7%, while Broadcom, Lam Research, and Applied Materials rose more than 2% [5] - In contrast, Intel dropped over 2%, and Qualcomm fell more than 1% [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.15%. Alibaba fell over 3%, while JD.com, ZTO Express, and Li Auto dropped more than 1% [7] - However, NetEase, Baidu, and Huazhu Group saw slight increases [7] Apple News - Apple updated its trade-in values for devices, including support for Android models from Huawei and Xiaomi. The highest trade-in value for the iPhone 16 Pro Max in China is 5,800 yuan [10] - Analysts suggest that Apple's first foldable phone, the iPhone Fold, may be released in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, which will feature the A20Pro chip [10] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials discussed the economic outlook and monetary policy, with Vice Chair Jefferson stating that current interest rates are aligned with neutral levels [12] - Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the need for policies to support the job market and indicated readiness to lower rates if employment does not improve [12] - Market expectations for a rate cut in January are low, with a 5% probability for a 25 basis point cut and a 95% probability for maintaining current rates [14]

Core Insights - Analysts warn that Chevron (CVX) and its peers are highly sensitive to potential escalations in the situation in Iran, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz potentially causing oil prices to rise by $10 to $20 per barrel, exacerbating inflation concerns [1][1][1] Company Impact - Chevron and its competitors may face significant financial implications if the geopolitical situation in Iran escalates, particularly regarding oil supply disruptions [1][1] - The potential increase in oil prices could lead to higher operational costs and impact profit margins for these companies [1][1] Industry Implications - A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have widespread effects on the oil market, influencing global oil prices and contributing to inflationary pressures [1][1] - The sensitivity of the oil market to geopolitical events highlights the importance of monitoring international relations and their potential impact on supply chains [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Tether has launched a new unit of measurement called "Scudo" for its gold-backed stablecoin XAUT, aiming to enhance the use of gold in payment systems [1][2]. Group 1: Introduction of Scudo - Tether introduced "Scudo," which is defined as one-thousandth of a troy ounce of gold, equivalent to one-thousandth of the value of its gold-backed token XAUT, currently valued at approximately $4.48 [1][2]. - The term "Scudo" has historical roots dating back to the 16th century, used to describe various Italian coins, and is derived from the Latin word for "shield" [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Growth - Tether cites ongoing inflation concerns, interest rate uncertainty, record central bank gold purchases, and increased demand for safe-haven assets as factors creating an opportunity for gold to regain its status as a widely accepted payment medium [2][7]. - The market capitalization of Tether's XAUT has reached $2.3 billion, growing nearly threefold over the past year, with Tether claiming to hold 116 tons of gold valued at nearly $17 billion as of the end of Q3 2025 [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of Scudo is seen as a response to the competitive landscape in the gold token market, particularly with Paxos launching PAXG, a gold-backed digital asset that has also seen significant growth [6][9]. - Paxos' PAXG has a market capitalization of $1.7 billion, having doubled in the past year, and is now the only gold token issued under federal regulatory oversight following approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [9]. Group 4: Accessibility and Adoption - Tether emphasizes that the introduction of Scudo lowers the entry barrier, allowing anyone to own, price, and trade a small portion of gold, which is considered a trusted asset [5]. - Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, stated that gold is proving to be a significant store of value alongside Bitcoin, and the digitalization of gold through XAUT is a step towards broader accessibility [5].