责任编辑：陈平 1月22日，在全球地缘政治版图剧烈震荡的背景下，OEXN认为，美国政府近期针对欧洲盟友采取的激 进立场，特别是围绕格陵兰岛问题引发的关税威胁，已成为驱动资本逃离美系资产、转投实物黄金的核 心引擎。这种由政策不确定性引发的资产多元化浪潮，正为黄金市场注入史无前例的上涨动能。 当前的博弈焦点已不仅仅局限于领土议题，更延伸到了金融市场的根基。OEXN表示，随着欧洲多国威 胁将以抛售美债作为反制手段，市场的避险逻辑已发生深刻转变。根据公开市场数据显示，已有丹麦养 老基金因忧虑美国债务违约风险而率先套现 1 亿美元美债，这种"抛售美国"的情绪直接助推现货黄金连 破 4700 及 4800 美元大关。OEXN表示，目前 10 年期美债收益率攀升至 4.27% 的水平，反映出投资者 在动荡局势下对传统主权信用资产的信心松动。 尽管市场情绪处于高亢状态，OEXN认为，投资者仍需警惕经济环境的脆弱性。虽然关税摩擦和地缘博 弈强化了黄金作为"避险天堂"的地位，使金价一度触及 4866.80 美元的历史高位，但大规模抛售美债可 能引发的全球借贷成本连锁反应同样不容忽视。OEXN认为，在金价向 5000 美元大关发起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing significant turmoil, with a massive sell-off in the bond market leading to a breakdown of traditional safe-haven logic, while XBIT blockchain finance emerges as a valuable new choice in this turbulent environment [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Turmoil - The current global bond market crisis is described as a once-in-thirty-years event, with Japanese government bonds entering the "4% era" for the first time, and U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rising nearly 9 basis points to 4.925% [3]. - The sell-off was triggered by U.S. President Trump's announcement of tariffs on goods from eight European countries, which led to a significant rise in U.S. bond yields during Asian trading hours [3]. - Traditional safe-haven assets have also lost their stability, with gold prices exceeding $4,700, not due to active demand but as a passive choice for investors seeking refuge [3]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is showing complex trends amid the turmoil, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating and surpassing $96,500, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 6.65% [5]. - Despite the rise in cryptocurrency prices, the market is characterized by high volatility, with daily liquidation amounts exceeding 5 billion yuan, and over 120,000 individuals facing liquidation in mid-January [5]. - Security concerns have been highlighted, with incidents such as data breaches at Coinbase and past events like the FTX bankruptcy raising questions about the safety and compliance of cryptocurrency platforms [5]. Group 3: XBIT's Positioning and Strategy - XBIT blockchain finance is positioned as a compliance benchmark in the industry, emphasizing a "safety first, compliance-based" operational philosophy, and implementing a multi-layered security system to address internal and external threats [6]. - The platform utilizes advanced security measures, including AI behavior analysis and strict data access protocols, to mitigate risks associated with social engineering attacks and internal fraud [6]. - XBIT offers tailored asset allocation solutions that integrate risk parity models and all-weather strategies, helping investors diversify their portfolios and manage risks effectively [8]. Group 4: Regulatory Landscape and Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency industry is gradually moving out of regulatory gray areas, with compliance and standardization becoming core trends, as evidenced by the advancement of the U.S. Digital Asset Clarification Act [8]. - XBIT is proactively engaging with global regulatory bodies and participating in industry standard-setting, positioning itself as a preferred platform for both institutional and individual investors in the blockchain finance space [8]. - In the face of increasing fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties, XBIT aims to redefine the perception of high risk associated with cryptocurrencies, offering a pathway that balances safety and growth potential for investors [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-15 展望：彭博商品指数权重调整的阶段性扰动已消化，金银在流动性宽 松远期预期、顺周期交易与资源安全忧虑共振下，整体维持震荡偏强 格局。黄金中枢有望继续上移，白银高波动状态或延续，需警惕波动 放大背景下的阶段性回撤风险。 多要素共振，⽩银突破90美元关⼝ 降息预期、美联储独⽴性扰动与地缘⻛险共同作⽤，贵⾦属避险主线进⼀ 步强化。⻩⾦维持⾼位震荡、以配置属性为主；⽩银在⾦融属性回归与流 动性偏紧共振下率先放量，价格弹性显著释放，突破90美元关⼝。 重点资讯： 1）据读卖新闻周三报导，日本首相高市早苗正在考虑在下周解散众 议院后，于2月8日进行众议院改选。 2）特朗普威胁要对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%关税。 3）美国12月CPI年率持平于2.7%，核心CPI年率持平于2.6%；当月CPI 月环比0.31%；核心CPI月环比0.24%，低于市场预期（核心预期0. 30%）。 价格逻辑： 黄金：实际利率下行与信用扰动支撑高位运行。美国通胀数据弱于预 期，市场对年内进一步降息的定价持续强化，实际利率下行对无息资 产形成支撑 ...

总之，黄金的长期叙事依然诱人，但短期的交易环境已变得异常凶险。市场正在从基于宏观信念的"买 入持有"模式，切换到基于价格波动和情绪博弈的"短线厮杀"模式。当前最佳策略是"长线逻辑埋心底， 短线操作看震荡"。具体而言，各位金友应将大部分资金置于场外观望，仅以极小仓位在4550-4560美元 支撑区与4600-4610美元阻力区之间进行高抛低吸的短线交易，严格止损，快进快出。将主要精力和资 金保留下来，等待市场完成这一轮高位震荡、情绪冷却，并在更舒适的支撑位（如4520-4500美元）出 现明确的企稳信号后，再进行中线级别的多头布局。在狂热的氛围中保持冷静和耐心，是在当前市场生 存并最终获利的关键。 故日内操作建议： 黄金：4590-4592一线做空，止损4601，目标看4550-4520-4500一线，破位持有。若再度重新站上4600， 则回调出空做多，看4630-4650一线。另外，下跌至4550不破，也可反手出空做多，继续看高位震荡。 周二（1月13日），市场正处在一个微妙的节点：长期利多格局与短期回调风险激烈博弈，任何风吹草 动都可能引发价格的剧烈摆动。早盘市场风云突变，价格上演开盘直线跳水，伦敦金快速失 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased for three consecutive days, with multiple jewelry stores reporting prices around 1336 CNY per gram, the highest being from Chow Sang Sang, while the lowest is from Caibai Jewelry at 1290 CNY per gram [1][6] - Investment gold bars are priced between 974 to 1009 CNY per gram, and silver is priced at 12.95 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and dovish comments from officials have strengthened market bets on monetary easing, with traders assigning an 87% probability to a rate cut in December, up from 71% a week prior [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to slightly decline from 48.7 to 48.6, remaining in contraction territory, which could influence gold prices depending on whether the data is stronger or weaker than expected [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Market Overview - Current domestic gold price is 957 CNY per gram, with international gold priced at 4231 USD per ounce, platinum at 1703 USD per ounce, palladium at 1524 USD per ounce, and silver at 56.98 USD per ounce [3] - Gold recycling prices are reported at 949 CNY per gram, with platinum at 364 CNY per gram, palladium at 321 CNY per gram, and silver at 11.91 CNY per gram [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tech stocks has led to a renewed interest in gold as a stable investment, with gold prices fluctuating around 4000 CNY per gram since late October, while tech giants reported disappointing earnings [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Market Dynamics - Global gold demand is projected to reach a record high of 1313 tons by Q3 2025, driven by both central bank purchases and increased retail investment [2]. - The appeal of gold is shifting from a traditional safe-haven asset to a structural asset allocation tool, benefiting from its low correlation with equity assets [2][6]. - Historical data shows that gold prices have significantly appreciated during previous Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles, with increases of 31.9%, 49.4%, 31.4%, and a record 53.8% during the current cycle [2]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The gold market is currently experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with short-term pressures from improving international trade relations reducing gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% has lowered the holding costs for gold, providing a fundamental support for its price [6]. - Despite the rate cut, uncertainty remains regarding future Fed policies, with the probability of another rate cut in December dropping to 72.8% [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recent pullback in gold prices presents a potential buying opportunity for investors, who may consider dollar-cost averaging during price fluctuations [7]. - Long-term trends indicate that the current rate-cutting cycle and global central bank gold purchases may sustain upward price momentum for gold assets [7]. - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios by including gold ETFs alongside equity investments to hedge against market uncertainties [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, driven by factors such as safe - haven and interest - rate cut expectations. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, leading to precious metals entering a high - level consolidation phase. [5][9] - The long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue as the economic system restructuring drives the currency system restructuring. However, there are also factors such as the rebound of the opportunity cost of holding gold and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. [6][39] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, with safe - haven and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, causing precious metals to return to high - level consolidation. [5][9] - Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates in this bull market. The impact of the safe - haven logic on gold is more significant, and a correction in the safe - haven factor will have a greater impact. [5][12] - In previous bull markets, the volatility of silver was greater than that of gold. In recent years, the average increase of silver has been lower than that of gold, significantly dragged down by its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has continuously made up for losses, with its increase exceeding that of gold again. [5][13] 3.2 Evolution of Precious Metals Investment Logic - From the overall research framework of precious metals, safe - haven events are often the trigger for market movements, and the final trend is jointly dominated by monetary and commodity attributes. [15] - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have diverged significantly. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between them and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. [18] - In terms of interest - rate comparison among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down recently, and the interest - rate spread expectation has declined from its high level. [19] - Currently, there are more uncertainties in the market's expectation of whether the Fed will cut interest rates within the year. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has corrected from its high level, and the future pace of interest - rate cuts will significantly slow down. [23] - In terms of inflation comparison, the inflation of major economies has been generally mild recently, and the inflation pressure from the trade war has not emerged. [26] - The IMF's latest forecast in October 2025 shows that the global economic growth rate will slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026. It is expected that the US economic growth rate will be 2.0% and 2.1% in the next two years, an upward adjustment of 0.1 percentage point compared with the July forecast. [32] - The expected deficits of government bonds in major economies are high, the supply is increasing, and the yields are generally rising. The global debt problem further promotes the risk pricing of precious metals. [36] 3.3 Future Trend Outlook for Precious Metals - The restructuring of the economic system drives the restructuring of the currency system. As a super - sovereign currency, the long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. [39] - In the "de - dollarization" process, the proportion of the US dollar in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves and international payments has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is a long - term process. [41] - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has continued to decline recently, indicating that the risk of a US economic recession still exists. The US - Europe interest - rate spread has declined from its high level, and the US - China interest - rate spread has significantly narrowed. [43] - The real yield of US Treasury bonds has rebounded after encountering resistance in its decline, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend, but the support near the lower - break level is still strong. [45] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, the VIX of the S&P 500 is at an ultra - low level in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has decreased after Trump took office. [46] - In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC positions have recently declined from their high levels. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have continuously reduced their positions since 2021, but there has been a recent trend of increasing positions. [49] - The net long positions of Shanghai Gold futures companies have recently increased rapidly, while those of Shanghai Silver are still at a relatively low level. [52] - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less suppressed by high prices, and the investment demand from the private sector and central banks still has potential. [59] - The World Silver Association indicates that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) in 2025. [61] - Technically, London gold is under short - term upward pressure, showing weak consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 4080 (about 935 for the Shanghai Gold main contract) and the support at 3730 (about 855 for Shanghai Gold). [6] - London silver is under short - term upward pressure, showing strong consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 50 (about 11,680 for the Shanghai Silver main contract) range and the effectiveness of the support at 44 (about 10,000 for Shanghai Silver). [6] - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 83.12% percentile in the past 45 years, with an average of 66.49. Recently, with the correction of the safe - haven factor and the slowdown of interest - rate cut expectations, the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue its downward trend. [68]

根据香港第一金官网报道：美国国会大厦的时钟正指向9月30日午夜，联邦资金即将断流，全球市场屏 息以待。 01 停摆倒计时：美国政府的"关门"危机 美国政府关门的根源，源于国会预算机制的结构性刚性：每年9月30日前，两党须敲定12项拨款法案， 方能确保联邦资金连续性。 一旦失败，非核心部门如国家公园和行政审核将立即暂停，约80万联邦雇员面临无薪状态。 美国联邦政府再度面临"关门"风险，这场政治博弈的根源可追溯到1974年《预算和截留控制法案》，该 法案强化了国会对预算的主导权，但也导致府院博弈常态化。 当前，民主党推动增加1.5万亿美元民生支出，共和党则主张简化延续决议，避免额外负担。 特朗普本周与两党领袖的会晤，本该是化解关键，却因民主党医疗保健需求的坚持而陷入胶着。 02 经济影响：数据黑洞与GDP拖累 若政府关门成为现实，美国经济将面临直接而明确的冲击。德银估计，一次全面的政府关门可能导致80 万联邦雇员休假，这将使季度年化实际GDP增长每周减少约0.2个百分点。 市场和美联储还将面临就业和CPI报告等关键经济数据的延迟发布。 美国经济分析局（BEA）和劳工统计局（BLS）的雇员可能被强制休假，导致就业报 ...

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the continuous uptrend of Shanghai Gold's main contract has been driven by factors such as the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics. Recently, with the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals face increased pressure to correct. Gold has been oscillating at a high level after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, and its risk - aversion value has a more significant impact. Silver, which previously had higher volatility than gold but lower average gains in recent years due to its industrial attributes, has seen consecutive catch - up gains since the second half of the year, with its recent gains exceeding those of gold [6][12]. - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, while the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals. In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is crucial, and the Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points [7][20][23]. - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined. Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8][42][46]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, Shanghai Gold's main contract has approximately doubled, with the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations have increased the correction pressure on precious metals [12]. - After the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, gold has been oscillating at a high level. Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates during this bull market, and the risk - aversion value of gold has a more significant impact [15]. - Previously, silver had higher volatility than gold, but in recent years, its average gains have been lower than those of gold due to the significant drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has seen consecutive catch - up gains, with its gains exceeding those of gold [17]. II. Precious Metals Investment Logic Evolution - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, and the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals [20]. - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage [23]. - In terms of the comparison of interest rates among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but recently, the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down, and the expected yield spread has declined from its high level [24]. - Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points, which is higher than the June dot - plot [27]. - Comparing the inflation rates of major economies, inflation in major economies has recently rebounded as a whole, and trade wars may bring widespread inflationary pressure [31]. - In terms of the economic growth rates of major economies, the US growth rate has slowed down but remains strong overall, while the growth rates of non - US economies are rising from the bottom [34]. - According to the latest July 2025 IMF economic growth rate forecast, the expected economic growth rates of the US for this year and next year are 1.9% and 2%, respectively, and those of the Eurozone are 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has been somewhat alleviated [37]. III. Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and in the medium - to long - term, the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance [42]. - In the process of "de - dollarization," the proportion of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves (stock) and international payments (flow) has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is still a long - term process [44]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined [46]. - Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend but still has strong support [48]. - Regarding the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of the S&P 500 is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has remained high since Trump took office [49]. - In terms of the capital side, since the beginning of this year, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC holdings have recently decreased overall. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have been continuously reducing their positions since 2021, but have shown an increasing trend again since the beginning of this year [52]. - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central bank investment demand [56]. - The World Silver Institute stated in April that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, dropping to 117.6 million ounces, approximately 3,658 tons [58]. - Most of Trump's policies have not been implemented yet. The policy expectations in the later stage are short - term negative for precious metals. The trade war has reached a stalemate, and the previous positive factors have been reversed [59]. - From a technical analysis perspective, London Gold is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 3,400 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 790) and the support at 3,140 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 730) [60]. - London Silver is also expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance in the 40 range (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 9,700) and the effectiveness of the support at 34.8 (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 8,400) [63]. - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 8.23% percentile in the past 20 years, with an average value of 70.3990. The expected interest - rate cut is still far off, and the trade war remains uncertain. Anti - involution commodities are under pressure to correct, and the downward trend of the gold - silver ratio has slowed down [66].