Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce plans for the sale of UK government bonds after conducting an annual assessment of quantitative tightening (QT) [1] Group 1 - The MPC is set to evaluate the implementation of QT, which involves the reduction of the central bank's balance sheet [1] - The announcement regarding the bond sale plans is expected to occur in the fourth quarter or later [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2][4] - The Fed's statement indicated a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, while still acknowledging that risks remain high [5][6] - The median forecast for interest rates remains unchanged, with expectations for two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, although the number of officials predicting no cuts has increased [11][16] - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, projecting a slowdown to 1.4% for this year, while raising unemployment and PCE inflation expectations [17][19][20] Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement reiterated that net export fluctuations have impacted data, but economic activity continues to expand steadily [7][8] - The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7][8] Interest Rate Projections - The updated dot plot shows a more hawkish stance, with an increase in the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year [16] - The median projections for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, indicating a lower expected rate of cuts compared to previous forecasts [11][12][13] Inflation and Unemployment Expectations - The Fed has raised its PCE inflation forecast for this year to 3.0%, significantly above the recently reported level of 2.1% [20][22] - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward, with projections of 4.5% for 2025, compared to previous estimates [19][22]

智通财经6月3日电，英国央行货币政策委员曼恩表示，必须考虑量化紧缩（QT）和一系列利率政策的 影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Mann emphasizes the necessity to consider the impacts of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and a range of interest rate policies [1] Group 1 - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding how QT interacts with monetary policy decisions [1] - Mann suggests that the implications of QT should not be overlooked in the context of current economic conditions [1] - The need for a comprehensive approach to monetary policy is underscored, taking into account both QT and interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, leading to an unexpected rise in bond yields, indicating market concerns about economic governance rather than a positive response to reduced trade barriers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.5%, while the 2-year yield increased by over 1 percentage point, contrary to expectations that tariffs being halted would lower input costs and ease inflation [1][2]. - The bond market's reaction signals a warning about the chaotic governance and systemic disorder in the U.S. economy, rather than indifference to the tariff cancellation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Governance Concerns - The halting of tariffs has exposed a governance vacuum, with the judicial branch overriding executive authority, suggesting a lack of coherent economic leadership [3][4]. - The current net issuance of U.S. debt is near historical highs, and with the Federal Reserve no longer acting as a buyer, there are concerns about the market's ability to absorb this debt, exacerbated by potential declines in fiscal revenue due to tariff cancellations [3][4]. Group 3: Implications for Trade Negotiations - The court ruling weakens Trump's negotiating position, as it raises the risk of domestic judicial challenges to trade policies, potentially emboldening trade partners to delay negotiations [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that if the tariff suspension remains in effect, asset performance may shift towards a scenario of "tax cuts rising, tariffs falling," with bond yields remaining high due to increased fiscal burdens [5][6]. Group 4: Systemic Risks - The bond market's response indicates that the financial system is nearing a critical point, with rising leverage and deteriorating liquidity in Treasury futures suggesting increased vulnerability to systemic risks [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that markets react strongly to policy inconsistencies, and the current situation in the U.S. reflects a similar pattern of instability [4][5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is putting pressure on the repurchase agreement market, indicating that tools for controlling short-term interest rates will become increasingly important [1] - As of May 14, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet stood at $3.24 trillion, slightly above the previous week and close to the level when quantitative tightening (QT) began nearly three years ago [2] - The Federal Reserve needs to maintain its balance sheet above $3 trillion to ensure sufficient liquidity and avoid market pressure [2] Group 2 - The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) helps reduce the reserve requirements needed for the central bank to operate effectively under the "ample reserves framework" [3] - The New York Fed plans to incorporate SRF's early settlement operations into its regular schedule to support market stability [3] - There are obstacles that hinder counterparties from using the SRF, including issues with netting transactions and uncertainty in allocation, which increase the cost of using the tool [3]

Group 1 - The rise in ultra-long-term government bond yields in Japan is attributed to a decline in demand from domestic long-term investors such as life insurance companies and pension funds, coupled with a slowdown in the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing pace, leading to a lack of buyers in the ultra-long-term bond market [1] - Foreign investors are entering a market with poor liquidity, causing more severe market volatility compared to previous periods [1] - Political pressure on Prime Minister Kishida to increase spending and reduce taxes ahead of the July Senate elections has led investors to demand a higher risk premium due to Japan's fiscal challenges [1] Group 2 - The increase in ultra-long-term yields has limited impact on mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, as most loans in Japan are based on short-term rates; however, an overall upward shift in the yield curve could increase borrowing costs and harm the economy [2] - Rising yields will increase the financing costs of Japan's massive public debt and restrict future fiscal spending [2] - Market dysfunction complicates the Bank of Japan's plans to reduce its balance sheet, and delays in quantitative tightening may limit the central bank's policy space to respond to the next economic downturn [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to take immediate action unless there is a panic sell-off in the entire bond market, as its focus has shifted to restoring market functionality after last year's removal of the zero interest rate cap [3] - In the upcoming mid-term review, the Bank of Japan may maintain its current bond purchase reduction plan until March next year, although there is room for intervention in cases of extreme market tension, the threshold for such intervention is high [3] - The Bank of Japan may adjust its regular market operations, such as changing the composition of bond purchases, and could maintain or slow down the balance sheet reduction pace in plans beyond fiscal year 2026 to avoid disrupting the market [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance has remained silent so far, but it may reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds after meetings with investors in mid-June; another option could be early redemption of outstanding ultra-long-term bonds, though this is currently unlikely [3] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan states that monetary policy is determined by controlling short-term rates rather than bond yields, and committee member Akira Noguchi opposes hasty intervention, indicating that fluctuations in yields will not directly affect the pace of interest rate hikes; however, if soaring yields damage market and corporate confidence, the central bank may be forced to pause rate increases [4]

所长 早读 2025-05-08 期 国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 符合市场预期，美联储继续按兵不动 观点分享： 美东时间 5 月 7 日，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区 间保持 4.25%至 4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。特朗普今年 1 月上任以来，尽管一再喊话呼吁降息，但美联储还是一直保持观望并未降息，还暗示目前 关税等政策有引发滞胀的风险。相比 3 月的 FOMC 会后声明，在 3 月"经济前景相关的不确 定性增加"的表述上添加了"进一步"这个词，强调了"不确定性"的增加。并判定"失业 率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加"。并且在声明开头提到"净出口波动已影响数据"，尽 管接下来依然使用了"最近的指标显示经济活动继续稳健扩张"的表述。另外，声明没有再 次提到"进一步放慢缩减资产负债表（缩表）这一量化紧缩（QT）行动的步伐"。再有，本 次既不调整利率也不再改动缩表的决策，全体 FOMC 的投票委员都表示支持。 宏观：5 月7 日，国新办发布会官宣一系列金融稳市场、稳预期政策。首先从政策内容上看， 所 长 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 林彦 邵翔 裴明楠 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 对于美国经济，联储和我们前期报告判断的一致——滞涨。在如何处理"滞胀"这个问题上，美联储还是犹豫了。今天凌晨的议息会议美联 储对当前经济的定性是"滞胀"属性和不确定性上升，应对上观望和平衡更加明显，支持年内至少2次降息的人变少了，而意外的放缓缩表也 被官方视为"以时间换空间"的中性措施。面对白宫，美联储依旧不想先动，而落后于曲线（Behind the Curve）的代价可能是在未来不得 不宽松得更多。 信号偏鹰的点阵图： 点阵图显示今年降息预测中值仍是2次（和去年12月一致），但是支持年内降息2次以上的人变少了：从15人减少至11 人。 微妙的放缓缩表： 本次会议比较意外的是宣布从4月起放缓缩表节奏，将美国国债的每月赎回上限从250亿美元降至50亿美元。鲍威尔强调 不是货币政策态度的变化，而是应对债务上限的技术性调整，而且可能意味着缩表结束的时点延后。不 ...

作者：林彦 邵翔 裴明楠 对于美国经济，联储和我们前期报告（详见《 美国滞胀或是基准，黄金是"版本答案" 》 ）判断的一致——滞涨。 在如何处理"滞胀"这个问题上，美联储还是犹豫 了。 今天凌晨的议息会议美联储对当前经济的定性是"滞胀"属性和不确定性上升，应对上观望和平衡更加明显，支持年内至少 2 次降息的人变少了，而意外的放缓 缩表也被官方视为"以时间换空间"的中性措施。 面对白宫，美联储依旧不想先动，而落后于曲线（ Behind the Curve ）的代价可能是在未来不得不宽松得更多。 3月FOMC美联储对未来降息路径保持谨慎，点阵图的信号更鹰，但又宣布了4月开始放缓缩表，被市场解读为宽松： 滞胀不确定性上升： 经济预测（SEP）下调2025年GDP预测0.4个百分点，上调2025年通胀预测0.2个百分点。删除了"实现就业和通胀目标的风险大体均衡"表述，改 为"经济前景的不确定性有所增加"。 信号偏鹰的点阵图： 点阵图显示今年降息预测中值仍是2次（和去年12月一致），但是支持年内降息2次以上的人变少了：从15人减少至11人。 微妙的放缓缩表： 本次会议比较意外的是宣布从4月起放缓缩表节奏，将美国国债的每 ...