李丹，华尔街见闻 美联储内部的鹰派观点体现在，纪要声明提到，讨论风险管理考量时， 美联储会议纪要显示，上月末的货币政策会议上，决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，认为今年不必 再降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数，一些中间派要视数据而定；对于缩减资产负债表 （缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止；在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担 心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时，与会者对（货币政策）委员会（FOMC）12月会议最有可 能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法。大多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步 转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。一些 （Several）与会者评估认为，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期，可 能较为适合12月"进一步降息。"许多（Many）与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年 剩余时间内，可能适合"维持利率不变。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不 ...

会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持 降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎 完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时，与会者对（货币政策）委员会（FOMC）12月会议最有可 能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法。大多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步 转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。一些 （Several）与会者评估认为，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期， 可能较为适合12月"进一步降息。"许多（Many）与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今 年剩余时间内，可能适合"维持利率不变。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济 前景以及风险平衡的影响。 媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，"许多"（Many）一词代表的人 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美联储理事米兰：本来希望10月份就结束量化紧缩（QT）。 实施合理力度的监管将允许保持更小规模 的资产负债表。 强烈支持美联储修订银行业监管。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Publicly traded Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies added 54,156 ETH—currently worth about $170 million—to its balance sheet over the last week, the firm announced on Monday. BitMine now holds 3,559,879 ETH valued at more than $11.1 billion, making it the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury in the world, and the second largest crypto treasury overall behind Michael Saylor’s Strategy and its $61 billion Bitcoin stash. The Ethereum-centric firm also holds 192 Bitcoin (about $18 million ...

分析师警告称，预计未来几周市场将面临更多压力。一个关键背景是，美联储经过三年的量化紧缩 （QT）后，银行体系的超额现金已大幅减少。 纽约联储本周与华尔街主要银行举行了一场非例行会议，凸显了官员们对美国货币市场紧张局势的担 忧。 11月14日，据媒体援引三位知情人士透露，在周三美联储年度国债市场会议期间，纽约联储主席John Williams临时召集华尔街银行开会。 会议的核心议题是向一级交易商（即承销政府债务的银行）征求了对美联储常备回购机制使用情况的反 馈意见。央行官员称该机制是重要的压力释放阀，有助于将短期借贷成本控制在目标范围内。 报道援引知情人士透露，25家一级交易商中的许多家都派出了代表出席。他们指出，出席者大多是银行 固定收益市场团队的成员。 此举正值衡量短期借贷成本的关键指标多次飙升至美联储设定的利率水平之上，引发了市场对流动性状 况的警惕。 面对潜在的流动性紧张，美联储官员将常备回购便利工具（SRF）视为一个关键的"压力释放阀"，旨在 将短期利率控制在目标区间内。 Williams及其他高级官员坚称，SRF将是缓解压力的重要工具。Williams本周早些时候表示： 随着年底的临近，这一状况预计 ...

历史经验表明，一旦有效联邦基金利率（EFFR）也开始贴近甚至突破IOR，美联储就会放慢或停止缩 表。2018—2019年QT尾声阶段，正是EFFR-IOR利差收窄至5个基点以内，促使联储启动有机扩表。眼 下，EFFR仅比IOR低7个基点，年底前后完全可能进一步收敛。 根据BBMarkets消息，美国货币市场在经历短短两周的平静后，再度拉响流动性警报。作为衡量融资松 紧的核心标尺，担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）最近一路抬升，与美联储支付给银行的准备金利率 （IOR）之差已扩大到8个基点。 与此同时，三方回购利率也升至IOR上方0.8个基点。利率的倒挂意味着银行体系内的准备金正从充裕滑 向稀缺，迫使交易员重新押注：美联储可能不得不像2019年那样，再次扩张资产负债表，甚至启动新一 轮量化宽松（QE）。 尴尬的是，这一紧张局面出现在美联储刚刚于10月底宣布提前结束量化紧缩（QT）之后。 彼时，市场一度以为流动性危机已暂告段落，回购市场的冻结状况得到缓解，SOFR也几乎与IOR持 平。 然而，随着QT的剩余抽水量持续至12月1日，加之财政部的普通账户（TGA）余额波动、监管年末效应 提前显现，准备金规模已降至五年低位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. short-term financing market is showing signs of liquidity tightening again, raising doubts about the effectiveness of recent Federal Reserve interventions. The rise in key interest rate indicators suggests speculation that the Fed may be forced to expand its balance sheet again, interpreted by some as a new round of quantitative easing (QE) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has recently surged, widening the spread with the Fed's interest on reserves (IOR) to 8 basis points, indicating a return to a tense financing environment [1][4]. - Following the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) at the end of October, the banking system's reserves may be sliding towards "scarcity" levels, increasing pressure for further Fed action [3][9]. - The rebound in SOFR and tri-party repo rates above the IOR suggests that bank reserves have moved from "ample" to "scarce" levels [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Fed officials have indicated that reserves are no longer "ample," hinting that "reserve management purchases" may be the next step in normalizing the Fed's balance sheet [6][11]. - The timing for the Fed to expand its balance sheet will depend on the relationship between the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the IOR, with expectations that the EFFR-IOR spread may narrow by year-end [8][9]. - The continued use of the standing repo facility (SRF) is seen as a clear signal of scarce reserves, with recent data showing a resurgence in daily usage of the SRF tool [10][11]. Group 3: Current Reserve Levels - U.S. bank reserve levels have dropped to their lowest point in five years, indicating a challenging transition from "ample" to "scarce" reserves, with market signals suggesting potential volatility in this process [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching the time to restart bond purchases as a technical operation to maintain control over short-term interest rates, according to New York Fed President John Williams [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet starting in early December, ending the process known as "quantitative tightening (QT)" [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9 trillion in September 2022 to approximately $6.6 trillion currently [2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Stability - Williams emphasized that the bond purchases will not impact monetary policy and did not comment on the short-term interest rate outlook [1]. - The Fed is assessing when reserve levels will be deemed "adequate" to ensure effective control over interest rate targets and normal market operations [1]. Group 3: Liquidity Tools - Williams highlighted the successful operation of a new tool called the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which provides quick cash to eligible banks and serves as a liquidity source [3]. - He encouraged banks to utilize the SRF without concerns about being stigmatized for borrowing from the Fed, indicating its expected continued active use [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the October FOMC meeting, bringing the total rate cut since June of last year to 150 basis points, indicating that more cuts are likely to come [1] - Powell hinted at the end of quantitative tightening (QT) during a meeting in Philadelphia, confirming that the Fed will officially end its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1] - The historical context shows that since the establishment of the Fed in 1913, the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power, with $100 in 1913 now equivalent to $3.20 [1] Group 2 - The primary reason for the dollar's depreciation has been the severing of its link to gold, with the introduction of quantitative easing (QE) in the 21st century, which involves the Fed creating money to purchase government bonds, thus eroding the value of existing dollars [4] - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed expanded its balance sheet from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion through multiple rounds of QE, creating approximately $3.6 trillion, resulting in a 20% decrease in dollar purchasing power by the end of the QE period [4] - During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed created $3.3 trillion in 2020 alone, which accounted for about 20% of the total circulating dollars at that time, leading to a significant increase in the balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $8.9 trillion by April 2022, causing a 25% decline in dollar purchasing power from 2020 to 2025 [4] Group 3 - The Fed is expected to restart QE to lower long-term interest rates, likely starting early next year, with a balance sheet already inflated to approximately $6.6 trillion, which could lead to double-digit inflation [5] - The upcoming monetary policy could result in unprecedented large-scale and rapid currency devaluation in the U.S. economy [5]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) has sparked discussions about a potential policy shift, but it should not be equated with the start of a new easing cycle [1][2] - The Fed will stop reducing its Treasury holdings but will continue to let approximately $15 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) mature each month, replacing them with short-term Treasury bills [1][3] - This operation is characterized as an asset swap rather than an increase in reserves, focusing on changing the composition of the balance sheet rather than expanding its size [1][4] Summary by Sections End of QT vs. Restart of QE - The current Fed operation is fundamentally different from quantitative easing (QE), which aims to inject liquidity into the financial system through large asset purchases [2][4] - The Fed's plan involves an internal adjustment of its asset portfolio, with no increase in bank reserves, making it a misunderstanding to interpret this as a restart of QE [2][3] Future Balance Sheet Expansion - Future expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is expected only in extreme situations, such as a severe recession or financial crisis, primarily to hedge against cash demand [3][4] - The Fed may begin purchasing Treasury bonds to maintain stable reserve levels, potentially increasing its buying by $10 billion to $15 billion monthly to match cash growth [3][4] Focus on Treasury Issuance Strategy - The key focus for asset markets should shift from the Fed to the U.S. Treasury, which plays a crucial role in determining how much duration risk the market needs to absorb [5][14] - The Treasury's recent strategy has leaned towards increasing short-term bond issuance, and the Fed's purchase of short-term Treasuries may facilitate this, depending on the Treasury's final decisions [5][14]