1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, although geopolitical risks have eased, market uncertainties remain high, and precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels. Long - term, the logic for the rise of precious metals remains firm, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Gold is expected to be better than silver for allocation, and attention can be paid to the phased repair opportunities of the gold - silver ratio [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, dollar credit risks will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, London gold spot fell 0.4% to $4825.93 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.2% to $94.07 per ounce, COMEX gold fell 0.4% to $4826.50 per ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $93.96 per ounce, AU2602 fell 0.5% to 1083.56 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 0.8% to 23370 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) fell 0.4% to 1081.44 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.7% to 23352 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose - 36.7% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose - 1900.0% (data may need verification), the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 5.7% to - 4.96 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) rose - 27.4% to - 511 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 1.3% to 46.37, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.2% to 51.37, AU2604 - 2602 rose 18.2% to 4.02 yuan per gram, and AG2604 - 2602 rose - 36.7% to - 31 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.37% to 1077.66 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.35% to 16166.09757 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 3.97% to 44945 contracts, non - commercial net long positions rose 10.37% to 251238 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.02% to 102009 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 1.95% to 589052 kilograms. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.02% to 36142880 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.98% to 422313658 troy ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 22, 2026, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.00, with a 0.01% increase compared to January 21, 2026. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.77, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.93% to 4.26%, the VIX fell 15.88% to 16.90, the S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6875.62, and NYMEX crude oil rose 1.93% to 60.67 [3]. 3.6 Market Review - On January 22, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.69% to 1087.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.22% to 2339 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.7 Influencing Factors Analysis - Trump reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland and withdrew tariff threats against 8 European countries, and stated no military action to seize the island, which eased market risk aversion and pressured precious metal prices. The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected and weekly jobless claims were stable, indicating US economic resilience and may suppress the rise of precious metals. However, the Greenland crisis is not fully resolved, there are concerns about European funds selling US Treasuries and reducing US stock investments, and Trump's threat of retaliation adds to market uncertainties. With tight spot supply and low inventory, the fundamentals support precious metals. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The market risk sentiment has converged, but the trading focus remains on geopolitical factors. The demand logic for gold investment remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile pattern due to the slight cooling of risk sentiment [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. US President Trump announced an agreement framework on the Greenland issue with NATO Secretary-General Lute. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO members. Trump will not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1st. Affected by this news, US stocks rose sharply, with all three major indexes rising more than 1%. The EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22nd local time [1]. - Economic outlook: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1063.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram, a change of 3.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 1097.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1091.80 yuan/gram, a 0.05% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 23,660.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23,131.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 870,541 lots, and the open interest was 301,919 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 23,037 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,938 yuan/kilogram, an 0.83% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 21, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.239%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.661%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 14,122 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 6,877 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 546,827 lots, a change of 93.32% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -4,635 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,634 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,948,125 lots, a change of 23.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,222 tons, an increase of 149 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 21, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -709.99 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 47.22, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 49.36, a change of -1.58% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 21, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 95,478 kilograms, a change of 108.84% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 422,976 kilograms, a change of -1.38% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1070 yuan/gram - 1150 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram - 23,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is characterized as a high-volatility asset, experiencing significant price movements both upward and downward. The recent performance indicates a potential shift in the long-term bullish trend for silver, especially after the gold-silver ratio fell below 50 for the first time since March 2012 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, silver closed at $93.18, while gold was at $4633.9, resulting in a gold-silver ratio of 49.73, marking a significant decline [1][5]. - Silver reached a record high of $93.48 during trading, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical tensions [1][5]. - By noon Beijing time, silver dropped sharply to a low of $86.23, breaking below its previous low of $86.86, indicating a new two-day low [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The breakdown of the upward trend line in silver during the Asian trading session suggests a potential shift towards bearish control in the short term [4][8]. - The current price has fallen below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a technical correction [4][8]. - If the European and U.S. trading sessions do not show a significant rebound in silver prices, the bearish signal may strengthen [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices surged to a new historical high of $92 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and favorable U.S. economic data, with a year-to-date increase of 29% [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in silver prices is attributed to increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S. and Israeli threats against Iran [2]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was in line with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the anticipated 2.7% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for further monetary easing is supported by stable core inflation data, which is favorable for silver prices [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Structure - Current silver inventory in London stands at 27,817.61 tons, with a portion held by funds, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) silver inventory has decreased by approximately 500 tons over the past month [4][5]. - The silver-to-gold ratio is nearing 50, indicating that silver may still be undervalued compared to historical averages [4]. Group 3: Futures Market Adjustments - CME announced changes to margin requirements for silver futures, adjusting them to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, which could increase the financial burden on short positions [6][7]. - A new 100-ounce silver futures contract is set to be introduced in February 2026, aimed at increasing market participation and liquidity, with cash settlement instead of physical delivery [7]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup has raised its price forecast for silver to $100 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and persistent shortages in the physical market [8]. - Despite the bullish outlook, the silver market is characterized by high volatility, with potential for significant price fluctuations [8][10]. - Investors are advised to monitor geopolitical developments and U.S. trade policies regarding silver, as these factors could lead to substantial price movements [9][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals strengthened due to the escalation of geopolitical risks caused by the US military strike on Venezuela, and the geopolitical trend is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices in the short - term [6]. - The spot silver price maintains a high premium, indicating a tight supply pattern that supports the silver price, but there may be game risks. It is recommended to pay attention to important US economic data, the new Fed chairperson, and the results of key mineral tariffs [6]. - Based on the gold - silver ratio at a near - decade low, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying gold on dips [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will persist, dollar credit risk will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **15 - point price of internal and external gold and silver on January 5, 2026**: London gold spot was $4420.31/ounce, London silver spot was $75.44/ounce, COMEX gold was $4429.90/ounce, COMEX silver was $75.25/ounce, AU2602 was 995 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 18260 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 992.10 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18296 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 31, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 4.9%, 2.1%, 5.2%, 1.8%, 6.8%, 1.6%, and 7.1% respectively [5]. - **Price difference/ratio on January 5, 2026**: The gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.9 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was 36 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price difference was - 5.98 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price difference was - 843 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 54.49, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 58.87, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.30 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 13 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 267.1%, - 256.5%, 293.8%, - 26.0%, - 4.7%, - 3.0%, - 12.2%, and - 55.2% respectively [5]. 2. Position Data - **As of January 2, 2026**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1065.13 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 16444.13962 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 290161 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 49461 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 240700 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 55243 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 19359 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 35884 contracts. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were - 0.51%, 0.00%, 3.29%, 5.37%, 2.87%, - 1.41%, - 1.64%, and - 1.29% respectively [5]. 3. Inventory Data - **On January 5, 2026**: SHFE gold inventory was 97704 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 669547 kilograms. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 0.00% and - 3.19% respectively. As of January 2, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 36402970 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 449773368 troy ounces. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 0.41% and 0.08% respectively [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - **On January 5, 2026**: The US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 7.02. As of January 2, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.46, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, VIX was 14.51, the S&P 500 was 6858.47, and NYMEX crude oil was 57.33. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were - 0.08%, 0.19%, 0.00%, 0.24%, - 2.94%, 0.19%, and - 0.14% respectively [5]. 5. Market Review - On January 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.4% to 995 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.16% to 18247 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Influencing Factor Analysis - The US military strike on Venezuela over the weekend led to increased geopolitical risks and uncertainty in the international order. The recovery of safe - haven demand drove up precious metal prices. The geopolitical situation is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices in the short - term [6]. - The silver spot price maintains a high premium, indicating a tight supply pattern that supports the silver price. However, there may be game risks. It is recommended to pay attention to important US economic data, the new Fed chairperson, and the results of key mineral tariffs [6]. 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will persist, dollar credit risk will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. Given the high basis of Shanghai silver, there is a risk of significant price fluctuations in silver. Key events such as the US January non - farm payrolls, the announcement of the new Fed chairperson, and the possible announcement of US critical mineral tariffs at the end of the month should be monitored [3]. - In the long term, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties will persist due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is likely to continue, so the long - term price center of gold is likely to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On December 31, 2025, London gold spot was at $4329.08/ounce, London silver spot at $71.93/ounce, COMEX gold at $4340.70/ounce, and COMEX silver at $71.54/ounce. Compared with December 30, 2025, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.8% - 0.9% and silver down about 3.8% [3]. - **Price Differences**: On December 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - $0.79/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - $23/kg. The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed, with some showing significant percentage changes [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: As of January 2, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1065.13 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with December 31, 2025. The silver ETF - SLV position remained unchanged at 16444.13962 tons [3]. - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also changed. For example, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 3.29% from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 97704.00 kg, unchanged from December 30, 2025, and the SHFE silver inventory was 691638.00 kg, a decrease of 8.48% [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36402970 troy ounces, an increase of 0.41% compared with December 31, 2025, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449773368 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On December 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.03, with a decrease of 0.09% compared with December 30, 2025 [3]. - **Interest Rates and Stock Indexes**: On January 2, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.19% compared with December 31, 2025. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.24%. The VIX index decreased by 2.94%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.19%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.14% [3]. 3.5 Market Review and Influencing Factors - **Market Review**: On December 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.65% to 977.56 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.27% to 1707 yuan/kg. During the New Year's Day holiday, as of January 2, London spot gold rose about 0.08% and London spot silver rose about 1.25% compared with the 15:00 closing on December 31 [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran, Venezuela, etc., during the New Year's Day holiday boosted the demand for safe - haven assets, supporting precious metal prices. However, the relatively strong US dollar index and US Treasury yields limited the upward space of precious metal prices. The silver spot market remained tight, and the price differences showed certain trends [3].

Core Viewpoint - The spotlight in the precious metals market has shifted from gold to silver as spot silver prices have surpassed $73 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and industrial demand [1][3]. Group 1: Silver's Unique Characteristics - Silver exhibits a "dual volatility" characteristic due to its financial and industrial attributes, with current prices reflecting both geopolitical risk premiums and strong demand from the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The global demand for silver in photovoltaic applications has reached 15% of total silver demand, a figure expected to continue rising amid the renewable energy revolution [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have amplified the safe-haven function of precious metals, leading to a significant increase in silver ETF holdings by institutional investors [4]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 2020 pandemic-induced surge in silver prices, highlighting the current market's concerns over monetary expansion and inflation [4]. Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio Insights - The current gold-silver ratio stands at approximately 65:1, significantly below the historical average of 75:1, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5]. - A continuous decline in silver inventories, with registered silver stocks at their lowest since 2008, raises concerns about supply tightness, which could lead to significant price volatility [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The diversity of investment channels for silver, including physical silver, paper silver, silver futures, silver ETFs, and silver mining stocks, presents both opportunities and risks for individual investors [6]. - The high volatility of silver prices, typically 2-3 times that of gold, necessitates careful risk management, especially for leveraged instruments like futures [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the silver market will depend on the interplay of three key factors: the persistence of geopolitical risks, the sustained growth of the photovoltaic industry, and the timing of shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Driven by the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, gold and silver prices have continued to rise strongly, hitting new historical highs. Silver has benefited more from the Fed's loose expectations, with a significantly higher increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to 61.6 [2]. - The economic data released recently do not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level. The market has strengthened the expectation of a dovish new Fed chairman and the pricing of the subsequent interest - rate cut amplitude. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year [3]. - From the perspective of the overseas medium - term monetary policy trend, as the Fed cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet simultaneously, gold and silver prices will continue to perform strongly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.07% to 1019.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.50% to 18131.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4530.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 73.35 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.95 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4% [3]. 3.3 Data Changes - For gold, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract decreased by 0.21%, the trading volume decreased by 37.91%, the position increased by 8.91%, and the inventory remained unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.71%. The closing price of SHFE gold's active contract decreased by 0.58%, the trading volume decreased by 37.41%, the position decreased by 0.89%, the inventory remained unchanged, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 1.47%. The closing price of AuT + D decreased by 0.42%, the trading volume decreased by 48.02%, and the position increased by 2.11% [6]. - For silver, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract increased by 0.37%, the position decreased by 1.19%, and the inventory increased by 0.10%. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 0.75%. The closing price of SHFE silver's active contract decreased by 1.20%, the trading volume increased by 1.64%, the position decreased by 3.60%, the inventory decreased by 3.35%, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 4.76%. The closing price of AgT + D decreased by 1.69%, the trading volume decreased by 50.32%, and the position decreased by 1.74% [6]. 3.4 Market Expectations - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year, as shown by the CME interest - rate observer [3]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at highs [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential rise in demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain volatile but at a historically high level, with a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. There is a risk of a pullback due to profit-taking, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 16800 yuan/kg and 17800 yuan/kg [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 20 details of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 214,000, and the market still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1015.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1010.30 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 16,510.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,609.00 yuan/kg, a change of 7.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,367,254 lots, and the open interest was 348,865 lots. The night session closed at 17,211 yuan/kg, down 2.26% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.63%, also unchanged [3] Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,755 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,264 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 491,223 lots, a change of 29.19% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 6,459 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,636 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,301,271 lots, a change of 38.32% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,064.56 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.74 yuan/gram, and for silver was -1,611.92 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 57.62, a change of -6.59% from the previous trading day, and the overseas ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 55,632 kg, a change of -10.36% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 1,010,776 kg, a change of 23.70%. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 26,760 kg [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that silver prices are experiencing a bullish trend, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and industrial demand, with significant inflows into the silver market [1][1][1] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV), saw an increase in holdings by 533.01 tons, marking the largest single-day increase since January 2023, bringing total holdings to 16,599.25 tons [1][1][1] - Industrial demand for silver has risen to 55%, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, while global visible inventories remain below safe levels, supporting the price recovery of silver [1][1][1] Group 2 - A survey conducted by Kitco News among 352 retail investors indicated that over 50% of respondents expect silver to be the best-performing metal again by 2026 [1][1][1] - In the latest trading session, silver prices surged, indicating a short-term bullish trend, supported by positive signals and trading above the 50-day EMA, which suggests potential for further gains [1][1][1]