1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On July 22, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5874, up 3.74%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5380. With strong macro - expectations due to the upcoming ten key industries' stable growth work plans, low - level operation of production, decreased cost of semi - coke in Ningxia, weak overall steel demand expectation, and negative production profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. - On July 22, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6012, up 1.76%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700, up 20 yuan/ton. Affected by the plan to adjust the structure, optimize supply and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, coal prices rose significantly. With the factory's operating rate rising for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, neutral - to - high inventory, a decrease of 4.20 million tons in the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end, high downstream hot metal production, and negative spot profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 6012 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5874 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 592,505 lots, up 962 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 394,037 lots, up 1039 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon: - 71,449 lots, down 984 lots; net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy: - 44,311 lots, up 1578 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 72 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 78 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 78,495 sheets, down 259 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 22,150 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - Manganese silicon index average: 5610 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 494 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 332 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest China): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu): 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 428.50 million tons, down 4.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate: 40.53%, down 0.02%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate: 32.45%, up 1.25% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply: 182,840 tons, up 560 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply: 100,000 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon factory inventory: 216,300 tons, down 4500 tons; silicon ferroalloy factory inventory: 6.35 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills: 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; silicon ferroalloy inventory days in national steel mills: 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of five major steel types: 123,381 tons, down 1547 tons; silicon ferroalloy demand of five major steel types: 20,013.70 tons, down 153.60 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.48%, up 0.35%; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.92%, up 1.05% [2]. - Crude steel output: 83.184 million tons, down 3.361 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, coke enterprises initiated the second price increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 22 [2]. - From July 19 - 20, steel enterprises at the Tenth Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum reached a consensus on "strengthening self - discipline in production control" [2]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect a further decline in the second half of the year [2]. - Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations", which will take effect on September 15, aiming to increase rental housing supply and cultivate professional housing rental enterprises [2].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel has boosted market sentiment, but the demand is in a seasonal weak period, and the inventory is expected to rise further [2]. - For iron ore, although it is in the consumption off - season and the iron - water output is expected to decline, the rising prices of related products such as rebar, coking coal, and glass will support the iron - ore price in the short term, and the decline in port inventory also provides support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a pulsed rise in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The output of rebar decreased last week, the factory inventory decreased, the social inventory continued to rise, and the total inventory increased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the plate sector is better than that for building materials. In the summer high - temperature season, demand will weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing strong short - term performance [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. After adjustment, consider buying on dips, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees, with the hot - rolled coil futures closing price rising by 3.60% week - on - week and the spot price rising by 3.64% [2]. - **Production**: The national building - material steel mill rebar output decreased by 3.51% week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 4.30% week - on - week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.64% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.10% week - on - week last week. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen strongly, breaking through the suppression of multiple resistance levels above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for the price to pull back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased, with the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price rising by 5.54% week - on - week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment decreased by 10.51% week - on - week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment increased by 17.37% week - on - week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and the port trade - ore inventory decreased by 0.50% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2371.2 million tons, a decrease of 290.9 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1389.2 million tons, an increase of 241.3 million tons month - on - month [7]. - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons month - on - month [7]. - On July 21st, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the price of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton for steel - mill customers starting from July 22nd [7]. - In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative iron - ore loading volume was 2466.24 million tons, with a daily average loading volume of 176.16 million tons/day, a 3.21% increase compared to the same period last year [8].