Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, steel and ore prices rose first and then fell, showing a weak trend. The weak expectation of future demand was the main factor for the overall decline [61]. - From a fundamental perspective, the situation of screw and coil was not as bad as the price trend. Although the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased slightly, the apparent demand for rebar increased. The weak expectation of future demand was the main reason for the price decline [61]. - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" jointly issued by five departments did not clearly cut production capacity but admitted the current reduction in steel demand, which hit market confidence. The performance in the traditional "Golden September" season confirmed this pessimistic expectation, with prices rising and then falling [61]. - Iron ore was affected by the decrease in molten iron production and the increase in port inventory, fluctuating with screw and coil and difficult to strengthen independently. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely track the inventory depletion speed and the quality of terminal demand, pay attention to the introduction of policies on the implementation measures for steel industry capacity replacement, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the festival [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week data changes**: PB powder price decreased from 799 yuan/wet ton to 785 yuan/wet ton; Ba - mixed powder price decreased from 828 yuan/wet ton to 820 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 14.01 yuan/wet ton to - 10.71 yuan/wet ton, and Ba - mixed powder spot landing profit increased from - 5.81 yuan/wet ton to 0.73 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 223.9 tons to 1512.8 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 33 tons to 836.3 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 169 tons to 14550.68 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 358.1 tons to 2750.4 tons. The port throughput increased by 0.38 tons to 351.41 tons. The daily average port trading volume of iron ore increased by 9.1 tons to 94.9 tons, and the daily average molten iron production increased by 1.34 tons to 242.36 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 0.86% to 58.01% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week data changes**: The Shanghai rebar price remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 3.27% to 67.36%. The rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 14 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The rebar electric furnace profit increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton. The weekly rebar output increased by 0.01 tons to 206.46 tons, and the weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 tons to 324.19 tons [31]. - **Inventory and consumption data**: The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 13.32 tons to 471.89 tons, and the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.11 tons to 298.8 tons. The weekly enterprise inventory of rebar decreased by 0.66 tons to 164.41 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.4 tons to 81.7 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 10.41 tons to 220.44 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons to 321.68 tons. The building material trading volume decreased by 12776 tons to 101068 tons [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Production data**: The report presents historical data on the actual weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. - **Profit data**: It shows the historical data on the average daily profit of electric - furnace building steel in China from 2019 - 2025 [49]. - **Inventory data**: The report includes historical data on the weekly social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China from 2019 - 2025 [50][52]. - **Trading volume data**: It provides historical data on the daily trading volume of mainstream building - steel traders in China from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Apparent consumption data**: The report shows the historical data on the weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [55]. - **Export data**: It presents the monthly export volume of Chinese steel from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Real - estate data**: The report includes historical data on the cumulative year - on - year changes in investment completion, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises in China from 1999 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Manufacturing PMI data**: It shows the monthly manufacturing PMI value from 2019 - 2025 [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The trading margin and daily price limit for rebar and hot-rolled coil have been adjusted by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spot market shows weak trading, confirming the weak reality. The industry data last week was favorable, with both production and apparent demand increasing and inventory decreasing for the five major steel products. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, production remained flat, and inventory significantly decreased, while the data for hot-rolled coil changed little. As the pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills nears completion, the positive factors for raw materials have been realized and prices have declined. It is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to holiday risks. [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 7,678,373 lots and an open interest of 2,832,803 lots. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.81%, with a total trading volume of 2,616,236 lots and an open interest of 1,369,716 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 2.17%, with a total trading volume of 1,419,700 lots and an open interest of 529,740 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1196.5 yuan/ton, down 35.5 yuan or 2.88%, with a total trading volume of 6,549,970 lots and an open interest of 907,095 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1692.5 yuan/ton, down 46.0 yuan or 2.65%, with a total trading volume of 141,015 lots and an open interest of 53,441 lots. [2] Market Review - The steel futures market adjusted downward after fluctuating last week. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the Shanghai rebar price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil price was 3360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. [4] Industry News - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target for the added value of the steel industry at around 4% in the next two years. The plan proposes measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw materials. [6][7] Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts related to the futures and basis spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, production, inventory, and apparent demand, as well as the regional price differences and profits of steel products. [9][10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the iron ore futures fluctuated and declined as the pre - holiday restocking benefits were realized. With the National Day holiday approaching and the end of steel mills' restocking, iron ore is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1][4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years [10] - If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils will be most affected. With a 30% average tariff rate, China's medium - thick plates will lose their price advantage in South Korea, and the annual export volume may be reduced to less than 800,000 tons [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3114 | - 58 | - 1.83 | 7678373 | 2832803 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3313 | - 61 | - 1.81 | 2616236 | 1369716 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 790.0 | - 17.5 | - 2.17 | 1419700 | 529740 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1196.5 | - 35.5 | - 2.88 | 6549970 | 907095 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1692.5 | - 46.0 | - 2.65 | 141015 | 53441 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, the steel mills' molten iron output continued to increase, with the daily average molten iron rising above 2.42 million tons. The pre - holiday restocking was active, and the steel mills' inventory reached a high level in the same period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 175,000 tons [1][4] - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume increased. Both were at high levels in the same period in the past three years, and the shipment is expected to increase this week. The total global iron ore shipment was 3.3248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 248,300 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 351,410 tons, an increase of 380 tons [1][5] 3. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw fuels [10] - On September 22, at a press conference, the central bank governor said that the central bank adheres to a domestic - oriented monetary policy, takes into account both domestic and international factors, and the current monetary policy stance is supportive and moderately loose [10] - If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils will be most affected. With a 30% average tariff rate, China's medium - thick plates will lose their price advantage in South Korea, and the annual export volume may be reduced to less than 800,000 tons [10] - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, ports in China and Mongolia will be closed for 7 days. Ganjimiao, Mandula, and Ceke ports will close on October 1 and resume customs clearance on October 8 [10] 4. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, steel mills' profit per ton, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss, iron ore shipment, arrival volume, port inventory, and steel mills' inventory and consumption [9][11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market showed a mild contraction in trading volume, with concentrated hotspots and weak performance of individual stocks. The press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" reflected a prudent policy attitude, and there was some front - running trading for the "14th Five - Year Plan". The steel industry's growth target was set, and the A - share steel sector rebounded. Overseas, the US GDP growth in Q2 was revised up, which might affect the Fed's attitude towards monetary policy. Trading volume was concentrated in the technology sector, causing a siphon effect on the whole market. The Kechuang 50 index led the market with a nearly 6.5% increase, while other sectors and stocks declined severely. The weekly gains of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 were around 1%, and the CSI 1000 and 2000 recorded 0.5% and 1.8% declines respectively. The basis of each variety fluctuated little this week, with IH maintaining an annualized premium of 2% and the annualized discounts of the other three varieties narrowing slightly compared to last week. The term structure became flatter, and long - term hedging could be maintained [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of weakening, strengthening, strengthening, and strengthening respectively next week [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory This Week's Market Review - The market had a mild contraction in trading volume, with concentrated hotspots and weak individual stock performance. Relevant press conferences reflected a prudent policy attitude, and there was front - running trading for the "14th Five - Year Plan". The steel industry's growth target was set, and the A - share steel sector rebounded. Overseas, the US economic data might affect the Fed's monetary policy. Trading volume was concentrated in the technology sector, causing a siphon effect on the whole market. Different stock indices had different performance this week, and the basis of each variety had small fluctuations [2] Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH will weaken next week, while the basis of IF, IC, and IM will strengthen [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level presents tariff disturbances. In the industry, the production of rebar remains low, demand increases, inventory decreases again, and apparent demand rises. The long - term bullish sentiment is not high, and the cost - side support weakens. Before the holiday, the game between bulls and bears intensifies, and the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to consider low - buying and high - selling in the range of 3075 - 3170 yuan/ton for the RB2601 contract, with a stop - loss of 30 yuan/ton [7]. - Given that the resumption of blast furnaces in steel mills increases and the expectation of supply growth strengthens, but rebar production remains low and inventory pressure is not significant, after the price adjustment, there is still a possibility of a rebound. It is suggested to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of September 26, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton; the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [5]. - Rebar production remained at a low level, with a weekly output of 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons week - on - week and 1 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Apparent demand continued to increase, with a current apparent demand of 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons week - on - week and a decrease of 35.02 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total rebar inventory was 6.363 billion tons, a decrease of 0.1398 billion tons week - on - week and an increase of 2.2084 billion tons year - on - year [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [5]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - level**: Overseas, Mexico plans to raise import tariff rates on products from non - FTA partners, and the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks. Domestically, five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a steel industry growth plan, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the steel industry's added value in the next two years [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Rebar weekly production remained low, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26% and a continuous decline in the EAF steel operating rate. Terminal demand recovered, inventory declined again, and apparent demand rebounded [7]. - **Cost**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated and corrected, with high - level hot metal production, but increased arrivals and port inventories. Coking coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell. There was pre - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines increased for three consecutive weeks, with an expected increase in supply [7]. - **Technical**: The RB2601 contract adjusted downward, breaking through the key support of the MA20 moving average. In the short term, it may test the support around 3100/3075. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis, and the red bars shrank [7]. - **Strategy**: Considering the macro - level tariff disturbances, the industry - level low rebar production, increased demand, decreased inventory, and improved apparent demand, along with weakening cost - side support, it is recommended to consider low - buying and high - selling in the range of 3075 - 3170 yuan/ton for the RB2601 contract, with a stop - loss of 30 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets 2.1 Futures Price Trends - This week, the RB2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The RB2510 contract was stronger than the RB2601 contract. On the 26th, the price difference was - 92 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton week - on - week [13]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 278,350 tons, an increase of 16,197 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 futures contract holders was 221,167 lots, an increase of 39,455 lots compared to the previous week [19]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On September 26, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3302 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price. On the 26th, the basis was 206 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. 3. Upstream Markets 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. 3.2 Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventories - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2.7504 billion tons, an increase of 0.3581 billion tons month - on - month; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2.675 billion tons, an increase of 0.3127 billion tons month - on - month; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 1.29 billion tons, an increase of 0.045 billion tons month - on - month. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14.55068 billion tons, an increase of 0.169 billion tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.5141 billion tons, an increase of 0.0038 billion tons [34]. 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04%; the daily coke output was 531,200 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; coke inventory was 395,400 tons, a decrease of 26,700 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.5623 billion tons, an increase of 0.5306 billion tons; the available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, an increase of 0.76 days [38]. 4. Industry Conditions 4.1 Supply - side - **Crude Steel Production**: In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [42]. - **Rebar Production**: On September 25, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 2.0646 billion tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons week - on - week and 1 million tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, an increase of 0.001% week - on - week and 0.22% year - on - year [44][48]. - **EAF Steel Operating Rate**: On September 26, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 67.36%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 3.54 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rates in the East and South China regions decreased slightly, while the rest remained flat [48]. - **Rebar Inventory**: On September 25, the in - factory inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6441 billion tons, a decrease of 0.66 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 36.28 million tons year - on - year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.7189 billion tons, a decrease of 13.32 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 184.56 million tons year - on - year. The total rebar inventory was 6.363 billion tons, a decrease of 13.98 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 220.84 million tons year - on - year [51]. 4.2 Demand - side - **Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.0309 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The floor area under construction was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%; the completed area was 276.94 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0% [54]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to August 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5% [54]. 5. Options Market - Given the increase in blast furnace resumptions in steel mills and the strengthening expectation of supply growth, but with low rebar production and relatively low inventory pressure, there is a possibility of a rebound after price adjustment. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has pulled back due to increased arrivals and port inventories. The I2601 contract is recommended for short - term trading in the range of 810 - 770 yuan/ton, considering the tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment, high hot metal production, and weakening upward momentum of iron ore as the holiday approaches [2][9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Price - As of September 26, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 790 (-17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 851 (+1) yuan/dry ton [7]. Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 tons week - on - week. From September 15 to 21, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 3324.8 tons, and the total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2772.8 tons, a decrease of 205.0 tons [7]. Arrival - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 358.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports increased by 312.7 tons, and the arrival volume at six northern ports increased by 45.0 tons [7]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons week - on - week and 17.50 tons year - on - year [7]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 tons, an increase of 169 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1242.24 tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9736.39 tons, an increase of 426.96 tons [7]. Profit Margin - The profit margin of steel mills was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [7]. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. Industrially, hot metal production remains high, but the upward momentum of iron ore weakens as the holiday approaches. Technically, the I2601 contract is under pressure and may test the support near MA60 (775). It is recommended to trade the I2601 contract in the 810 - 770 yuan/ton range [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract was under pressure and pulled back, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2605 contract. On the 26th, the price difference was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 26, the number of Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts was 2000, an increase of 300 week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of ore futures contracts was 22924, a decrease of 10873 from the previous week [21]. Spot Price - On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and on the 26th, the basis was 61 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton week - on - week [27]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [30]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 169.00 tons, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 0.38 tons. The inventory of steel mills increased by 426.96 tons, the daily consumption increased by 1.83 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 1.23 days [33]. Inventory Availability - As of September 25, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 24 days, an increase of 2 days. On September 25, the BDI was 2266, an increase of 63 week - on - week [38]. Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - In August 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 0.6% month - on - month. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.03%, an increase of 0.2% [41]. Iron Ore Production - In August 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the iron concentrate production increased by 0.4% month - on - month [45]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Production - In August 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. Steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.6% month - on - month [48]. Blast Furnace Operation - On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average hot metal production was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons week - on - week [51]. 5. Options Market - With high hot metal production and rigid demand for iron ore spot, but weakening upward momentum after the National Day holiday replenishment, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [54].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 硅铁市场周报 假日提保资金减仓，库存中性电费或降 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「 期现市场情况」 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，本月LPR维持不变，工信部印发钢铁行业稳增长工作方案，该方案以"稳增长、防内卷"为核心，严禁新增钢铁产 能，加大铁矿石、炼焦煤等原燃料保供稳价力度，市场供需更趋平衡；根据中蒙两国双边协定，甘其毛都、策克、满都拉三大 主要进口口岸将于2025年10月1日至7日闭关，10月8日恢复正常通关。 2. 海外方面，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从10月1日起对所有厨柜、浴室柜及相关产品的进口征收 50%的关税，对所有品牌或 专利药品征收100%的关税；9月23日，韩国决定对原产于中国和日本的碳钢及合金钢热轧板卷征收临时反倾销税。 3. 供需方面，前期利润改善后产量快速回升，厂家前期套保居多，库存中性水平，短期成本有所支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated downward this week. The macro - environment has tariff disturbances, the industrial situation shows high production, falling terminal demand, rising inventory, and falling apparent demand. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend, and attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 26, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Apparent demand was stable at 321.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 3.3 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Factory and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, an increase of 2.51 million tons from the previous week, but a decrease of 19.13 million tons year - on - year [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners including China, and the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks. Domestically, five ministries jointly issued a work plan for the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026 [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils remained high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Terminal demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased but remained above 3.2 million tons [7]. - **Cost aspect**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated and corrected. Although the molten iron production was high, the arrival volume and port inventory increased. The coking coal futures price first rose and then fell. There was a pre - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate increased for three consecutive weeks, with an expected increase in supply [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract's center of gravity moved down, and the futures price was under pressure below multiple moving averages. It may test the support near 3300 and the previous low of 3280 in the short term. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were under pressure below the 0 - axis, and the red bar shrank [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment, tariff disturbances have resurfaced. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand has declined, inventory continues to increase, and apparent demand has decreased, but overall resilience is strong. The long - term bullish sentiment is not high, and cost - side support has weakened. Before the holiday, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the market may fluctuate. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: This week, the HC2601 contract fluctuated downward. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the spread on the 26th was 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On September 26, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 46314 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6986 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 75554 lots, a decrease of 30039 lots from the previous week [20]. - **Spot price**: On September 26, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 26th was 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 15 - 21, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2750.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.1 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 169.00 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 351.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons. On September 25, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 122.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.67 million tons [39]. - **Coking plant situation**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04%. Coke inventory decreased by 2.67 million tons to 39.54 million tons, while coking coal inventory increased by 53.06 million tons to 856.23 million tons, and the available days of coking coal increased by 0.76 days to 12.1 days [43]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Steel production and export**: In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel production was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, China exported 951 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons and a 3.3% decrease; imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons and a 10.6% increase [46]. - **Blast furnace operation**: On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.51 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.41 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons [50]. - **Hot - rolled coil production and inventory**: On September 25, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 enterprises was 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year. The in - factory inventory was 81.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 1.95 million tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 298.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.11 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.18 million tons. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.51 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13 million tons [50][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Automobile and home appliance**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, the production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 19964.62 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%; household refrigerators were 7018.91 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%; and household washing machines were 7826.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [58].

转自：人民日报海外版 《方案》提出，2025年到2026年，钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右；经济效益企稳回升，市场供需更 趋平衡，产业结构更加优化，有效供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平显著提升。 围绕主要目标，《方案》共提出5个方面10项具体措施：一是聚焦消费达峰、需求下行突出矛盾，加强 行业管理，实施产能产量精准调控，推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，促进供需动态平衡、优胜劣汰。二是 聚焦提升供给质量，强化产业科技创新，增强高端产品供给能力。三是聚焦行业改造升级，扩大有效投 资，推进工艺设备更新改造，加快数字化转型，推进绿色低碳发展。四是聚焦扩大有效消费，挖掘钢材 应用需求，深化钢铁与船舶等重点用钢领域的上下游合作，积极推广钢结构在住宅、公共建筑、中小跨 径桥梁等领域应用，激发释放消费潜力。五是聚焦深化开放合作，引导钢铁产品与装备、技术、服务等 协同走出去，提高国际化发展水平。（记者王俊岭） 近日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、商务部、市场监管总局等5部门联合印发《钢铁行 业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（以下简称《方案》），聚焦强治理、优供给、促转型、扩消 费、增合作等，促进钢铁行业 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 to 206.5, a 2.6% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.4 to 326.5, a 0.4% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.6 to 650.3, a 0.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.7 to 378.0, a 1.3% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0, a 6.0% increase, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.3 to 321.8, a 1.3% decrease [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different types of iron ore decreased, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6 to 37.9, a 54.0% decrease. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase, while the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 7.9 to 339.2, a 2.4% increase. The monthly national pig - iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude - steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase. The available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 22.0, a 10.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts and spot in different regions increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased by 13 to 1730, a 0.7% increase. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coking - plant inventory decreased, while the steel - mill and port inventories increased [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking - coal contracts and spot in different regions changed. The 01 contract of coking coal increased by 7 to 1225, a 0.6% increase. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 17 to 421, a 4.2% increase [6]. - **Supply**: The main - producing - area coal mines continued to resume production, and the logistics improved. The coal - mine sales and prices increased. The imported Mongolian coal price increased, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output continued to rise, the coking - plant operation was stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coal - mine, port, and steel - mill inventories decreased, while the coal - washing plant, coking - plant, and port inventories increased [6].