「2025.09.26」 螺纹钢市场周报 市场情绪低迷 螺纹期价承压回落 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至9月26日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3114（-58），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3320（+20）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量维持低位。206.46（+0.01），同比（+1）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求继续增加。本期表需220.44（+10.41），（同比-35.02）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库双降。螺纹钢总库存636.3（-13.98），（同比+220.84）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率58.01%，环比上周减少0.86个百分点，同比去年增加39.40个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 铁矿石市场周报 到港和港口库存增加 铁矿期价承压回调 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 「周度要点小结1」 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 行情回顾 248.3万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2772.8万吨，环比减少205.0万吨。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至9月26日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为790（-17.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉851（+1）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比-248.3万吨。2025年09月15日-09月21日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3324.8万吨，环比减少 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+358.1万吨。2025年09月15日-09月21日中国47港到港总量2750.4万吨，环比增加358.1万吨；中国45港 到港总量2675.0万吨，环比增加312.7万吨；北方六港到港总量1290.0万吨，环比增加45.0万吨。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 硅铁市场周报 假日提保资金减仓，库存中性电费或降 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「 期现市场情况」 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，本月LPR维持不变，工信部印发钢铁行业稳增长工作方案，该方案以"稳增长、防内卷"为核心，严禁新增钢铁产 能，加大铁矿石、炼焦煤等原燃料保供稳价力度，市场供需更趋平衡；根据中蒙两国双边协定，甘其毛都、策克、满都拉三大 主要进口口岸将于2025年10月1日至7日闭关，10月8日恢复正常通关。 2. 海外方面，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从10月1日起对所有厨柜、浴室柜及相关产品的进口征收 50%的关税，对所有品牌或 专利药品征收100%的关税；9月23日，韩国决定对原产于中国和日本的碳钢及合金钢热轧板卷征收临时反倾销税。 3. 供需方面，前期利润改善后产量快速回升，厂家前期套保居多，库存中性水平，短期成本有所支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated downward this week. The macro - environment has tariff disturbances, the industrial situation shows high production, falling terminal demand, rising inventory, and falling apparent demand. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend, and attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 26, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Apparent demand was stable at 321.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 3.3 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Factory and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, an increase of 2.51 million tons from the previous week, but a decrease of 19.13 million tons year - on - year [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners including China, and the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks. Domestically, five ministries jointly issued a work plan for the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026 [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils remained high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Terminal demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased but remained above 3.2 million tons [7]. - **Cost aspect**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated and corrected. Although the molten iron production was high, the arrival volume and port inventory increased. The coking coal futures price first rose and then fell. There was a pre - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate increased for three consecutive weeks, with an expected increase in supply [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract's center of gravity moved down, and the futures price was under pressure below multiple moving averages. It may test the support near 3300 and the previous low of 3280 in the short term. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were under pressure below the 0 - axis, and the red bar shrank [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment, tariff disturbances have resurfaced. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand has declined, inventory continues to increase, and apparent demand has decreased, but overall resilience is strong. The long - term bullish sentiment is not high, and cost - side support has weakened. Before the holiday, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the market may fluctuate. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: This week, the HC2601 contract fluctuated downward. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the spread on the 26th was 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On September 26, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 46314 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6986 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 75554 lots, a decrease of 30039 lots from the previous week [20]. - **Spot price**: On September 26, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 26th was 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 15 - 21, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2750.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.1 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 169.00 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 351.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons. On September 25, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 122.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.67 million tons [39]. - **Coking plant situation**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04%. Coke inventory decreased by 2.67 million tons to 39.54 million tons, while coking coal inventory increased by 53.06 million tons to 856.23 million tons, and the available days of coking coal increased by 0.76 days to 12.1 days [43]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Steel production and export**: In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel production was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, China exported 951 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons and a 3.3% decrease; imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons and a 10.6% increase [46]. - **Blast furnace operation**: On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.51 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.41 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons [50]. - **Hot - rolled coil production and inventory**: On September 25, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 enterprises was 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year. The in - factory inventory was 81.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 1.95 million tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 298.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.11 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.18 million tons. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.51 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13 million tons [50][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Automobile and home appliance**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, the production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 19964.62 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%; household refrigerators were 7018.91 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%; and household washing machines were 7826.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [58].

转自：人民日报海外版 《方案》提出，2025年到2026年，钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右；经济效益企稳回升，市场供需更 趋平衡，产业结构更加优化，有效供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平显著提升。 围绕主要目标，《方案》共提出5个方面10项具体措施：一是聚焦消费达峰、需求下行突出矛盾，加强 行业管理，实施产能产量精准调控，推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，促进供需动态平衡、优胜劣汰。二是 聚焦提升供给质量，强化产业科技创新，增强高端产品供给能力。三是聚焦行业改造升级，扩大有效投 资，推进工艺设备更新改造，加快数字化转型，推进绿色低碳发展。四是聚焦扩大有效消费，挖掘钢材 应用需求，深化钢铁与船舶等重点用钢领域的上下游合作，积极推广钢结构在住宅、公共建筑、中小跨 径桥梁等领域应用，激发释放消费潜力。五是聚焦深化开放合作，引导钢铁产品与装备、技术、服务等 协同走出去，提高国际化发展水平。（记者王俊岭） 近日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、商务部、市场监管总局等5部门联合印发《钢铁行 业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（以下简称《方案》），聚焦强治理、优供给、促转型、扩消 费、增合作等，促进钢铁行业 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 to 206.5, a 2.6% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.4 to 326.5, a 0.4% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.6 to 650.3, a 0.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.7 to 378.0, a 1.3% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0, a 6.0% increase, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.3 to 321.8, a 1.3% decrease [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different types of iron ore decreased, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6 to 37.9, a 54.0% decrease. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase, while the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 7.9 to 339.2, a 2.4% increase. The monthly national pig - iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude - steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase. The available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 22.0, a 10.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts and spot in different regions increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased by 13 to 1730, a 0.7% increase. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coking - plant inventory decreased, while the steel - mill and port inventories increased [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking - coal contracts and spot in different regions changed. The 01 contract of coking coal increased by 7 to 1225, a 0.6% increase. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 17 to 421, a 4.2% increase [6]. - **Supply**: The main - producing - area coal mines continued to resume production, and the logistics improved. The coal - mine sales and prices increased. The imported Mongolian coal price increased, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output continued to rise, the coking - plant operation was stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coal - mine, port, and steel - mill inventories decreased, while the coal - washing plant, coking - plant, and port inventories increased [6].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5742, up 0.88%. For the silicon ferroalloy, the macro - level sees the joint issuance of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by relevant departments. Supply has increased after profit improvement, with neutral inventory and short - term cost support. The market has a lower tender price. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 24, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5916, up 0.44%. For manganese silicon, macro - level includes diplomatic activities. Fundamentally, production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. The iron - water demand has recovered. The market has a lower final pricing. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese Silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,916.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; SF (Silicon Ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,742.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 529,129.00 hands, down 9,301.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 369,202.00 hands, down 1,439.00 hands [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net positions were - 69,893.00 hands, down 842.00 hands; Silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net positions were - 32,705.00 hands, down 680.00 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单 was 60,014.00 sheets, up 517.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 17,779.00 sheets, up 547.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,720.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 262.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; the SM主力合约基差 was - 196.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Guangdong issued an emergency notice on typhoon "Huajiaisha" prevention, implementing "five - stop" measures in key affected areas [2]. - US President Trump made statements on Russia - related issues, including tariff threats and NATO's response to Russian aircraft [2]. - Russia's energy ministry deputy said it might further restrict fuel exports and extended the gasoline export ban to the end of September, with possible extension to October [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongshang met with Ray Dalio, and they exchanged views on the international economic situation and financial market dynamics [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For silicon ferroalloy on September 24, the 2511 contract was at 5,742, up 0.88%. The macro - level has a steel industry plan. Supply has increased, inventory is neutral, and costs are supported. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The 9 - month Hebei Iron and Steel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on September 24, the 2601 contract was at 5,916, up 0.44%. The macro - level has diplomatic activities. Production has been rising, inventory has increased, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 9 - month silicon manganese final price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" aimed at promoting the stable operation and structural optimization of the steel industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Goals - The steel industry is currently facing significant challenges, including excessive supply and insufficient effective demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that restricts development quality and efficiency [1]. - The plan aims for an average annual growth of approximately 4% in the steel industry's value-added output from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and optimizing industry structure [1][2]. Group 2: Implementation Measures - The plan includes specific measures such as capacity reduction and replacement, production regulation, and graded management of the steel industry to optimize supply and demand balance [2][3]. - It emphasizes the need for continuous structural optimization on the supply side and matching with demand-side changes to achieve growth targets [2]. Group 3: Classification and Management - The plan proposes a graded classification management system for steel enterprises, which will provide policy support to compliant enterprises while imposing restrictions on non-compliant ones, ultimately leading to the exit of inefficient capacities [3]. - This classification is expected to enhance the overall competitiveness and standardization of the steel industry, aligning it with high-quality development requirements [3]. Group 4: Innovation and Investment - The plan outlines initiatives to strengthen technological innovation in the industry, enhance high-end product supply capabilities, and improve the resilience and safety of the supply chain [3]. - It also encourages effective investment in upgrading processes and equipment, digital transformation, and green low-carbon modifications [3]. Group 5: Market Expansion and Cooperation - The plan aims to expand the application of steel structures in construction, transportation, and infrastructure to stimulate consumption potential [3]. - It highlights the importance of strengthening collaboration with upstream and downstream enterprises and research institutions to meet the demand for high-strength steel and other specialized products [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are rated as "oscillating"; coking coal is rated as "oscillating on the strong side"; and soda ash is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the short term with a long - term downward price center [5][7][8][9][11][12][13][16][17][18][19]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, but the industry's fundamentals continue to support the prices of furnace materials, which in turn support steel prices. The downward pressure before the festival is limited. In the fourth quarter, the macro and policy aspects are expected to provide upward impetus for the prices of the black building materials sector [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the increase in factory inventory reflects pre - festival restocking. After the spot price weakens, port transactions increase, and the fundamentals are healthy. However, the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals of scrap steel are marginally weakening, but it is expected that it is difficult to form an independent market, and the price will mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Currently, both coke and steel enterprises have certain production profits. Supported by the peak - season restocking demand, the short - term supply and demand are strong. The spot has started a new round of price increases, and the support is relatively strong under the stable rebound of coal prices at the cost end. It is expected that the futures market will remain oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Under the current over - speed inspection, coal mine production remains cautious, and the supply recovery is slow. The upward height is limited. At the same time, the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches before the National Day is good, and the market still has positive expectations for the end - of - month meeting. It is expected that the price will oscillate on the strong side in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The expected downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of manganese silicon, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is rather pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon. Attention should be paid to the downward range of raw material costs [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price performance of silicon iron, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may still be a wave of oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply has not changed. After the downward movement of the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the future. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2][16]. 3.5 Specific Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The peak - season demand recovery is limited, and the pre - festival restocking sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled down. The supply is high, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are contradictory, and the futures market is under pressure. However, the cost end still has certain support, and the downward space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined, and port transactions have increased. The overall supply is stable, and the short - term demand is still supported. The inventory level is moderate. The high - level demand supports, but the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has increased slightly this week, and the demand has decreased slightly. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory available days have rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price mainly follows the finished products [9]. - **Coke**: Some coke enterprises have started to raise prices, and the short - term supply and demand are strong. The raw material cost support is strong, but the coking profit is under pressure. The futures market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price has continued to rebound, and coal mines have many pre - sales orders. The supply recovery is slow, and the restocking demand before the festival is good. The price is expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term [12]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and the fundamentals are still weak. The peak - season demand needs to be verified. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level, and the oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation, and the long - term price center will decline [14][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the price is stable. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the future supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is downward space for the price center after the peak season [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is downward pressure on the price after the peak season [18][19].

国信期货：硅铁走势依赖能源价格变化 周二晚间黑色系商品偏强震荡。动力煤现货价格企稳，市场对动力煤价格回暖预期较高带动硅铁回升。 供需方面，上周产量持平，但钢材环比减产，供需矛盾有限。Mysteel统计全国136家独立硅铁企业样 本：开工率（产能利用率）全国34.84%，环比上周持平；日均产量16150吨，环比上周持平。硅铁走势 依赖能源价格变化，建议观望为主。 瑞达期货：硅铁震荡运行对待 宏观面，工业和信息化部等部门联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，该方案 以"稳增长、防内卷"为核心。供需方面，前期利润改善后产量快速回升，厂家前期套保居多，库存中性 水平，短期成本有所支撑。利润方面，内蒙古现货利润-310元/吨;宁夏现货利润-300元/吨。市场方面，9 月河钢75B硅铁招标定价5800元/吨，较上轮定价跌230元/吨。技术方面，日K位于20和60均线之间，操 作上，震荡运行对待，请投资者注意风险控制。 9月24日盘中，硅铁期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至5776.00元。截止发稿，硅铁主力合约报5774.00 元，涨幅1.44%。 硅铁期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如 ...