黑色建材日报 2025-09-02 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3115 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 25 元/吨（0.809%）。当日注册仓单 210938 吨, 环比增加 12041 吨。主力合约持仓量为 163.3714 万手，环比增加 578004 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 30/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板 卷主力合约收盘价为 3303 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 43 元/吨（-1.28%）。 当日注册仓单 24760 吨, 环比 减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 119.5204 万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（8.25-8.29） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 767 | 779 | 12 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 810 | 816 | 6 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -6.77 | -11.35 | -4.58 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 13. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, but the market may experience increased volatility in the short term after recent continuous rises. The general approach is to go long on dips [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and potentially continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to have downward space, but the bond market may be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals prices are generally supported. There is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold [7][8]. - Most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as Fed policy and industry supply - demand, with prices showing different trends of strong or weak fluctuations [10][11][12]. - The demand for steel products is weak, and if the demand cannot improve effectively, prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is relatively stronger [25]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and attention should be paid to the progress of steel mill production restrictions [27]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term, and their long - term trends are affected by policies and market supply - demand [28][29]. - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see [30][31]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by policies, supply - demand, and inventory, and there are uncertainties [34][37]. - The prices of rubber are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a mid - term bullish view [43]. - The current oil price is undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [44]. - The supply pressure of methanol is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see; the supply of urea is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the price of styrene may rebound after the inventory reduction inflection point; the PVC market has a poor fundamental situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies; the ethylene glycol market has a downward pressure on valuation in the medium term; the PTA and PX markets are expected to follow the trend of crude oil and go long on dips; the price of polyethylene may oscillate upwards; the price of polypropylene is in a short - term balanced state [45][46][47][49][50][51][52][53][55]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be stable or rise in the north and stable in the south in the short term, with a range - bound trading strategy; the price of eggs is expected to be mostly stable with a few declines, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds; the price of soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the price of oils is expected to be volatile and strong; the price of sugar is likely to continue to fall; the price of cotton may have upward momentum in the short term [57][58][59][60][61][63][64][65]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Index Futures - News: The government promotes the construction of a new real - estate development model, and some companies release performance and trading information [2]. - Basis ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term, considering policy support and short - term market fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined on Thursday. There are news about Sino - Canadian and Sino - US economic and trade exchanges and local government bond issuance [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted a net injection of 16.31 billion yuan on Thursday [5]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to have downward space in the long - term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, considering economic data and the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. The prices are supported by economic data and Fed policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: LME and SHFE copper prices rebounded. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Aluminum - Market: LME and SHFE aluminum prices oscillated. The short - term price has support due to low inventory and expected demand improvement [12]. Zinc - Market: SHFE zinc index declined. The zinc market has an over - supply situation in the medium - term, but the price has short - term support [13]. Lead - Market: SHFE lead index rose. The short - term price has support, but there is a downward risk in the medium - term [14][15]. Nickel - Market: SHFE nickel price declined. The refined nickel supply is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be volatile [16]. Tin - Market: SHFE tin price rose. The supply and demand of tin are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to be volatile [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate declined. The fundamentals are slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [18]. Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose. The short - term price has limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel main contract price was stable. The short - term demand is weak, but there is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract price declined. The inventory is increasing, and the price may rise, but there is delivery pressure [21][22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The demand for steel products is weak, and the price is under pressure [24][25]. Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore main contract price rose. The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the price is expected to be volatile [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price declined, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [28]. - Soda Ash: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term price center may rise [29]. Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron - Market: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the silicon - iron main contract declined slightly. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract price rose. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be volatile [33][34]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon main contract price rose. The price is affected by policies and market news, and there are uncertainties [35][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and a mid - term bullish view is held [39][43]. Crude Oil - Market: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures prices rose. The current oil price is undervalued, presenting a good layout opportunity [44]. Methanol - Market: The methanol 01 contract price rose slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: The urea 01 contract price rose. The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: The styrene price declined. The price may rebound after the inventory reduction inflection point [47]. PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract price declined. The market has a poor fundamental situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract price declined. The supply is still excessive, and there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium term [50]. PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract price declined. The supply is expected to be in a de - stocking state, and it is recommended to go long on dips [51]. p - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract price declined. The PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price declined. The price may oscillate upwards due to cost support and expected demand improvement [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price declined. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is in a volatile state [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be stable or rise in the north and stable in the south, with a range - bound trading strategy [57]. Eggs - Market: The national egg price was mostly stable. The egg market has an over - supply situation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The domestic soybean meal price declined slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][60]. Oils - Market: The domestic three major oils oscillated weakly. The price of oils is expected to be volatile and strong [61][63]. Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined. The international and domestic sugar markets have an over - supply situation, and the price is likely to continue to fall [64]. Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The short - term price may have upward momentum due to expected demand improvement [65].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is influenced by various factors such as Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, which increase the probability of a September interest rate cut, and trade situation changes. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, with some expected to be bullish and others facing supply - demand imbalances and uncertainties [3][6][9] - In the short term, most sectors are expected to have volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to both macro - level policies and industry - specific supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][9] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities and break through key core technologies; a new management method for rare earths is released; the photovoltaic industry association advocates against malicious competition; Fed Chair Powell shows a dovish stance on interest rates [2] - **Trading Logic**: After continuous recent rises, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month. On Friday, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 123.2 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to remain loose. Interest rates may have downward space, but the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted, and the bond market may enter a short - term shock pattern [5] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold and silver prices fell. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6] - **Outlook**: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates the start of a new interest rate cut cycle. The market prices in a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and further cuts in December. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose. Inventory in the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 million tons. The spot import window opened, and the premium for foreign copper increased. The discount of LME's Cash/3M narrowed, and the domestic spot had a premium over futures [9] - **Outlook**: With the Fed's dovish stance increasing the probability of a September rate cut, and considering the tight supply of copper raw materials and the approaching peak season, copper prices are expected to rise gradually [9] Aluminum - **Market**: Fed Chair's dovish remarks and the cancellation of some tariffs led to a strong performance of aluminum prices. The weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee for aluminum rods declined [10] - **Outlook**: With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [10] Zinc - **Market**: On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, production restrictions are imposed in Tianjin [11] - **Outlook**: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the import of zinc concentrate is increasing. Although the mid - term oversupply situation remains, the dovish remarks of the Fed strengthen the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [11][12] Lead - **Market**: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, recycling and production of lead are affected [13] - **Outlook**: The supply of lead is increasing marginally, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is still a downward risk in the medium term due to terminal consumption pressure [13] Nickel - **Market**: Last week, nickel prices continued to fluctuate. The price of nickel ore is weak due to the release of quotas and weak demand. The supply of nickel intermediate products is tight, and the coefficient price has increased slightly [14] - **Outlook**: Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply of refined nickel is still in surplus, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [14] Tin - **Market**: Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin is low due to the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand is weak due to the sluggish downstream industries. The social inventory decreased significantly last week [15][16] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of tin is weak, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges provided [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2511 contract also decreased significantly. The oversupply sentiment has cooled down, and the support level for lithium prices has increased [17] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to overseas supply and domestic supply gaps. The reference price range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2511 contract is provided [17] Alumina - **Market**: On August 22, the alumina index rose. The spot price in Shandong had a premium over the 09 contract. The overseas price remained stable, and the import window was closed. The futures warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Outlook**: With continuous supply disturbances in domestic and overseas ore markets and the Fed's dovish stance, the downward space for alumina futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [18] Stainless Steel - **Market**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract declined. The spot price in Foshan remained stable, while that in Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the futures inventory decreased. The social inventory increased [19][20] - **Outlook**: Although low - priced resources impact the spot price, steel mills have the intention to support prices, and stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: On Friday, the AD2511 contract rose. The weighted contract's open interest decreased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [21] - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and the cost is strongly supported, casting aluminum alloy prices may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices will limit the upward space [21] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: On Friday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The spot prices of both decreased [23] - **Outlook**: The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel mill's profit is shrinking. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [24] Iron Ore - **Market**: On Friday, the main contract of iron ore declined slightly. The overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply pressure is not significant, but the iron - water increase may be limited due to weak terminal demand. With the Fed's dovish stance, iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of Tangshan's production restrictions [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained stable. The total inventory of glass increased slightly, and the inventory days increased. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but the long - term trend depends on policy and demand changes [27] - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: On August 22, the manganese - silicon main contract declined slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. After Powell's dovish speech, the commodity market rebounded, and there is a risk of a follow - up rise in the ferroalloy market [29] - **Outlook**: Manganese - silicon's price has broken through the support line, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. Ferrosilicon's price is in a narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the support level [29][30] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market**: On Friday, the industrial - silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable. Although the price has rebounded, the problem of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand remains. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [32][33] - **Outlook**: With the Fed's dovish stance, industrial - silicon prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential industry policies [33] - **Polysilicon Market**: On Friday, the polysilicon futures main contract declined slightly. The spot prices remained stable. The production is increasing, and the warehouse receipts are rising rapidly. There are positive feedback effects in the industrial chain, and the price is expected to be volatile [34] - **Outlook**: In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, polysilicon prices are resilient and are expected to maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on the price [34] Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU first declined and then rebounded. The long - and short - term views on rubber prices differ. The long - term view is based on seasonal expectations and demand improvement, while the short - term view is based on weak demand [36][37] - **Outlook**: The opening rate of all - steel tires increased. The rubber price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 positions is suggested [38][40] Crude Oil - **Market**: As of Friday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. The gasoline, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories in Europe decreased, while the diesel and aviation kerosene inventories increased [41] - **Outlook**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and not to chase the price [42] Methanol - **Market**: On August 22, the 01 contract of methanol declined. The coal price rose, the cost increased, and the domestic production started to increase. The overseas production is at a medium - high level, and imports are expected to increase rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is weak, and the inventory is rising [43] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity in the inter - month spread when supply and demand improve [43] Urea - **Market**: On August 22, the 01 contract of urea declined. The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is weak, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export is advancing, and the port inventory is rising [44][45] - **Outlook**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - and - demand situation. It is recommended to buy on dips considering the rising coal price and low production profit [45] Styrene - **Market**: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The macro - environment is positive, and the cost is supported. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the demand is improving [46] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and styrene prices may rebound after the inventory reaches a turning point [46] PVC - **Market**: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall production start - up rate decreased. The demand is weak, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [48] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see as the price follows the black - building materials market [48] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG01 contract rose. The supply increased, and the downstream load also increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. The profit of different production methods varies, and the cost of ethylene remained stable while the coal price rose [49][50] - **Outlook**: Although the downstream demand is recovering from the off - season, the supply is still excessive. The inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The downstream and terminal start - up rates improved, and the processing fee increased [51] - **Outlook**: The PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair, and it is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips considering the improvement in the downstream peak season [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX11 contract rose. The domestic and Asian production start - up rates increased. The PTA production start - up rate decreased due to unexpected maintenance. The import increased, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Outlook**: With high PX production and low PTA production, PX is expected to maintain low inventory. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips considering the improving downstream situation [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The futures price of PE rose. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. The cost is supported, the inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stock up [53] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and PE prices are expected to rise gradually [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The futures price of PP declined. The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the production start - up rate may increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [55] - **Outlook**: In the context of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were stable with some local increases. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while southern farmers are waiting and seeing [57] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is excessive, but policies may support prices. The far - month contracts are recommended to be in a reverse - spread strategy [57] Eggs - **Market**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable with some local increases. The supply is sufficient, especially for small and medium - sized eggs. The demand is slow, but it may improve later [58] - **Outlook**: The negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. It is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: On Friday night, US soybeans rose slightly. The cost of soybean imports decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly over the weekend, and the trading volume was average while the pickup was good [59] - **Outlook**: The cost of soybean imports is expected to be stable. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to buy on dips within the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure and profit at high prices [60] Edible Oils - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased in August, and the production also increased slightly. The EPA approved some exemptions for small - scale refineries. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase [61] - **Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and low inventories support the price of edible oils. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter if the demand and production remain stable [63] Sugar - **Market**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [64] - **Outlook**: With increasing production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere, and increasing domestic imports, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64] Cotton - **Market**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price increased slightly. The downstream start - up rates increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65] - **Outlook**: The Fed's dovish stance is positive for the commodity market. Considering the approaching peak season and low inventory, Zhengzhou cotton prices may have upward momentum in the short term [66]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - financial sector, the policy shows care for the capital market. The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility but is mainly a dip - buying opportunity. The bond market is expected to see interest rates decline in the long run, with short - term fluctuations [3][6]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term disturbances from tariff expectations, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper, aluminum, and other metals have different price trends. Some metals are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while others are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policy [11][12]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may face downward pressure if demand cannot be effectively repaired. The focus of the black sector is on coking coal, and iron ore fluctuates with sentiment and fundamentals [24][26]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is considered undervalued and a good left - hand layout opportunity, while some products like PVC and PTA face supply - demand and valuation challenges [43][48]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and sugar have different price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market sentiment [57][58]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited opinions on the draft of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The draft of the Regulations on Promoting the Development of Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou was open for public comments. The Central Settlement Company simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [2]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy shows care for the capital market. After a previous continuous rise, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general idea is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan on the day [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but export pressure may increase in the future. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices declined. The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was falsified, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term disturbances, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated and declined. LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount. Domestic social inventory slightly declined, and the spot premium increased. The import loss was about 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: Under the expectation of Fed rate cuts, there is support from the emotional side. Copper raw material supply is tight in the short term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs forms upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the LME inventory also increased. The spot was at a discount, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The market sentiment is neutral and positive. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and external demand is resilient, but there is pressure from weak downstream consumption and trade uncertainties. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile [12]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore is in a loose state, domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The LME market has structural disturbances [13]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the mid - term industry is in an oversupply situation, the low LME warehouse receipts support short - term zinc prices, making it difficult for them to decline [13]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased in August, and the supply side narrowed slightly. Downstream consumption pressure is large, and the battery factory's operating rate declined rapidly [14][15]. - **Price Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the nickel - iron market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply pressure still exists. The spot market trading of refined nickel is average [16]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term macro sentiment is positive, but downstream demand improvement is limited, and prices still have correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the start - up rate has rebounded slightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Social inventory decreased slightly last week [17]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak. With the continuous progress of resumption in Myanmar, the upward space for tin prices is limited [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures contract limit up. The market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of a lithium mine [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize appropriate entry points according to their own operations [18]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels according to market sentiment, and pay attention to warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Social inventory decreased, and some specifications were in short supply. Raw material prices remained stable [20]. - **Price Outlook**: With the change of seasons and the improvement of the macro environment, stainless steel prices may be volatile and strong in August [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly, and the spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume was low, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are both weak. The upward space for prices is limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and social inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and if demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of terminal demand repair and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased. Steel mill iron water production decreased slightly, and port inventory fluctuated slightly [25][26]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season. There is still demand support, and it is necessary to pay attention to terminal demand changes [26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot prices declined, and inventory increased. Market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices significantly corrected. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot prices were stable, and inventory increased slightly. Supply increased, and downstream procurement slowed down. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. The market is affected by emotions in the short term, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals in the long term [31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price increased, and the basis was positive. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to industry policies [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the basis was negative. Supply is expected to increase in August, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, and prices are expected to be volatile in a wide range [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU fluctuated and rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall, with the long side emphasizing production reduction and demand improvement, and the short side emphasizing uncertain macro expectations and off - season demand [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral attitude, operate quickly in and out, and consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [42]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, while INE crude oil prices declined. Chinese crude oil and refined product inventories increased [43]. - **Outlook**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued and are a good left - hand layout opportunity [43]. Methanol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. Domestic production decreased again, and port inventory increased rapidly [44]. - **Strategy**: Methanol valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short as a variety in the sector [44]. Urea - **Market**: Futures prices fell, and the spot price also fell. Domestic production continued to decline, and demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [45]. - **Strategy**: Urea valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low levels [45]. Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose. The cost side has support, and the BZN spread is at a low level and has upward repair space [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and after the high - level inventory in ports is reduced, styrene prices may follow the cost side and rise [47]. PVC - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. Production increased, and downstream demand was weak. Inventory increased, and the valuation pressure was large [48]. - **Price Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to pay attention to whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply declined slightly, and downstream demand increased slightly. Port inventory increased [49]. - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [49]. PTA - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Demand is about to end the off - season [50][51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX at low levels in the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the CFR price also rose. PX load is at a high level, and downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased. Inventory may continue to decline [52]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil at low levels in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance. Trade inventory is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: Futures prices rose. Shandong refinery profits rebounded, and the supply of propylene may increase. Demand is in the off - season [54]. - **Price Outlook**: In July, prices may follow crude oil and be volatile and strong [54]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market**: Hog prices were mixed. The spot price continued to weaken, and the trading average weight decreased. The release of current inventory can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on medium - and long - term contracts on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and a few areas rose slightly. The supply was still sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose, and domestic soybean meal fell slightly. The spot basis was stable, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at low levels in the cost range, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [60]. Fats and Oils - **Market**: Palm oil prices rose sharply. Supported by the expected B50 policy in Indonesia, demand is stable, and Southeast Asian inventory is low [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of fats and oils is supported, but the upward space is limited. Palm oil prices may be stable in the short term and have an upward expectation in the fourth quarter [62]. Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were volatile. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity increased slightly, and the export volume to China decreased [63][64]. - **Price Outlook**: International and domestic sugar supplies are expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates decreased, and inventory decreased [65]. - **Price Outlook**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the market is bearish. The short - term trend is bearish [65].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may have opportunities for style conversion, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. In the commodity market, different metals and energy - chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends, and the agricultural product market also presents diverse price and supply - demand situations [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - Macro news includes the release of the "Housing Rental Regulations", the plan to boost the stock market in Hong Kong, the A - share equity distribution of BYD, and the tense situation of US - EU trade negotiations [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs overseas and the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July domestically. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. There are important international events such as the upcoming visit of EU leaders to China and the change in the result of the Japanese Senate election. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - The economic data in the second quarter is resilient, and the export continues to grow. However, the export - rushing effect may weaken. The central bank's actions show its attitude of protecting funds, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX silver fell slightly. The independence of the Fed is being interfered with, and the prices of precious metals are strong. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The price of copper rose. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory also decreased. The import was in a loss, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The price is expected to have limited rebound due to factors such as the approaching US copper tariff execution time [10]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum increased. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the overseas inventory also increased. The price is expected to continue to rise in the short - term but may follow the market due to factors such as the off - season and weak export demand [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc increased. The domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price may be strong due to factors such as the dovish Fed atmosphere, but it is bearish in the long - term [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead rose. The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East. The price is expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The price of nickel was strong. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The demand for refined nickel is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. Tin - The price of tin fluctuated upwards. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the domestic smelters are facing raw material supply pressure. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [18]. Alumina - The price of alumina increased. The spot price in different regions rose, and the import window was closed. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity pattern may remain in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term due to policy support [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price may rise further but has difficulty in continuous increase [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The supply side may eliminate over - capacity, and the demand side is supported by large - scale infrastructure. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to continue to rise. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore increased. The supply of overseas iron ore is recovering, and the demand is strong. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass increased. The market sentiment is positive, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to rise strongly in the short - term [27]. - The price of soda ash increased. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose. The price may be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The industry has an over - capacity pattern, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon increased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - The prices of NR and RU rose. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The tire enterprise开工率 increased, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The price of WTI crude oil fell slightly, and the price of INE crude oil rose. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and take profits [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol increased. The upstream开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - allocate in the sector [44]. Urea - The price of urea increased. The domestic开工率 decreased slightly, and the demand is supported by compound fertilizer production and exports. The price has support below but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The price of styrene increased. The cost side supply is abundant, and the supply side开工率 increased. The inventory increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost side [46][47]. PVC - The price of PVC increased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply side开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. The price is expected to turn weak in the long - term [49]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply side is expected to accumulate inventory, and the demand is in the off - season. The processing fee has limited repair space, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [50]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene increased. The检修 season is over, and the downstream demand is high. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to continue to de - stock. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [51]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene increased. The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [52]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene increased. The supply side开工率 may increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The price may rise again in August but is difficult to reach a new high. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips and short - sell the far - month contracts after rebounds [55]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the market sentiment is positive. The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to short - sell the 09 and later contracts after rebounds [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly. The supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is strong. The price is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to supply - side changes [57][58]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil rose. The export and production data of palm oil in Malaysia are complex. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. The price is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the annual - level production increase [59][60][61]. Sugar - The price of sugar fluctuated. The domestic import of sugar increased in June. The price is expected to decline if the international price does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - The price of cotton fell slightly. The downstream consumption is average, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor for the price [64][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

文字早评 2025/06/23 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.07%，创指-0.83%，科创 50-0.52%，北证 50-1.34%，上证 50+0.31%，沪深 300+0.09%， 中证 500-0.66%，中证 1000-0.80%，中证 2000-0.91%，万得微盘-0.30%。两市合计成交 10678 亿，较上 一日-1829 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、证监会：从 10 月 9 日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内 ETF 期权交易，届时合格境外投资者可参与交 易的境内期货期权品种总数将达到 100 种。 2、特朗普：已"成功打击"伊朗三处核设施。 3、中国人民银行与香港金融管理局联合举办跨境支付通启动仪式。 4、财政部：1—5 月证券交易印花税收入 668 亿，同比增长 52.4%。 资金面：融资额-74.80 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.368%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.21bp 至 2.8822%，十年期国债利率-0.32bp 至 1.6407%，信用利差+0.53bp 至 124bp；美国 10 年期利率+0.00bp 至 4 ...

文字早评 2025/05/06 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.23%，创指+0.83%，科创 50+0.85%，北证 50+2.96%，上证 50-0.47%，沪深 300-0.12%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.79%，中证 2000+1.29%，万得微盘+1.41%。两市合计成交 11693 亿，较上 一日+1472 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部：美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来，对此，中方正在评估。节日期间离岸人民币大涨。 2、据新华社，"五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 3、美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，大幅好于预期。 资金面：融资额-13.51 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+21.90bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.54bp 至 3.0966%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6279%，信用利差-1.57bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+8.00bp 至 4.33%，中美利差-7.97bp 至-270bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.21，中证 500: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial products including stock indices, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It suggests different trading strategies based on the market trends, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships of each product. For example, in the stock index market, it recommends buying IM index futures when the impact of the tariff storm weakens; in the copper market, it expects the price to be strong in the short term due to supply - demand factors and policy changes [2][4][10]. Summary by Categories Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the ChiNext Index up 1.36%, the STAR 50 up 2.07%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1348.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: China's social financing increment in March was 5.89 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan. The US announced tariff exemptions for some products but may re - review and impose tariffs on electronics. The US Treasury bond sell - off continued, and the yield exceeded 4.5% on Friday [2]. - **Funding and Valuation**: The margin trading balance increased by 2.755 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 13.40bp to 1.6070%. The P/E ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. were 12.09, 27.48 respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IM index futures on dips after the impact of the tariff storm weakens. Unilateral trading suggests buying IM index long positions, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined, with TL down 0.36%, T down 0.14%, TF down 0.13%, and TS down 0.07% [5]. - **News**: At the end of March, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale was 8.4%, and the RMB loan balance increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The US tariff policy may lead to a more active domestic monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will maintain a downward trend in the medium term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to policy risks and take profit opportunities [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 763.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.79% to 8153.00 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.20% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's hawkish monetary policy may pose a potential risk to the gold price. The current gold price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and there may be a price correction after the positive factors are exhausted [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold existing long positions in gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 748 - 780 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kg [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 34,000 tons. The short - term copper price is expected to be strong due to supply - demand factors and policy changes. The reference operating range for the domestic Shanghai copper main contract is 73,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 8900 - 9500 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rebounded after a decline. The domestic inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to continue to rebound. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2350 - 2480 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell on Friday. The zinc market is expected to be bearish in the medium term. Due to the large impact of macro events, it is recommended to reduce positions [12]. - **Lead**: The lead price rose slightly on Friday. The lead market is affected by macro uncertainties and supply - demand factors. It is expected to maintain high - volatility and low - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to reduce positions [13]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices recovered from a low level last week. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 120,000 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell sharply last week. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is expected to weaken. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference operating range for the Shanghai tin main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin 3M is 29,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate was stable on Friday, and the contract price was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference operating range for the main contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,300 - 71,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose on April 11. The supply is still in excess, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. [18] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on the previous trading day. The short - term price of steel products is expected to be weak and volatile due to trade frictions and supply - demand factors [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply is stable, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to control positions [22]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price declined slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for both [23][24]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were volatile last week. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon continued to decline on April 11. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading strategies [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The global financial market rebounded, and the rubber market was affected by macro factors. The supply and demand of rubber were in a state of contradiction. It is recommended to operate conservatively, shorten the decision - making and holding periods, and reduce positions [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.08%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.88%, and INE crude oil futures fell 1.50%. It is recommended to take profit on dips and wait for the inflection point [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was affected by macro factors. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be supported by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and use positive arbitrage strategies for the inter - month spread [43]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded in the short term. It is recommended to close short positions. In the long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [44]. - **PVC**: The PVC price declined slightly. The short - term fundamentals are supported, but the medium - term outlook is weak. [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rose slightly. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX price fell slightly. The PX market is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The price of PE is expected to decline in the medium - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [50]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The price of PP is expected to be volatile and bearish in April due to supply and demand factors [51]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rose over the weekend. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas. It is recommended to short on rallies [53]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg price was stable over the weekend with a slight increase in some areas. The short - term sentiment is positive, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals [54]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal is expected to rise in the short term and then decline. The medium - term price is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to use a buy - on - dips strategy [55][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price was affected by production, export, and crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats may be supported if the macro situation stabilizes [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The short - term sugar price may be volatile, and the medium - term price is affected by weather conditions [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the medium - term price depends on downstream consumption. The possibility of a price decline is relatively high [62][63].