Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [6][8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [9][10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and specific operations should refer to the corresponding price ranges [12][13][15]. - For black and building materials, steel prices are affected by inventory and demand, and the prices of related products such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in a range [35][37][44]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be considered for short - selling if it breaks below a certain level, and crude oil is recommended for short - term waiting and seeing [58][63][64]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may support the near - month contract, while the egg price may have different strategies for near - month and far - month contracts [88][90][92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. In December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in March, and the central bank lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - **期指基差比例**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **策略观点**: The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading is to prevent short - term market overheating. In the long run, the policy supports the capital market. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Thursday, the closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts are provided. The central bank announced the social financing scale and money supply data for 2025 and the adjustment of structural monetary policy tool interest rates [5][6]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted 1793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net investment of 1694 billion yuan [7]. - **策略观点**: The December financial data shows a stable total social financing scale. The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices and changes of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, and the US dollar index are provided. Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals, and the inflation data has an impact on the market [9]. - **策略观点**: The current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The geopolitical situation and commodity prices affect the copper price. The London copper price fell, and the Shanghai copper price rebounded after a decline. The inventory and basis information are also provided [12]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper supply is in a tight situation, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The decline in crude oil and precious metals prices led to a fall in the aluminum price. The inventory and basis information are provided [14]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is neutral to positive. The domestic inventory has a cumulative pressure, but the overseas low - inventory and strong spot support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain zinc brands [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain lead brands [19]. - **策略观点**: The lead industry situation is complex, and the lead price may follow the sector for a supplementary increase due to strong macro - sentiment [20]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price was strong. The spot price, cost, and other information are provided [22]. - **策略观点**: The nickel has a large excess pressure, but the macro - factors support the price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price continued to rise. The supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **策略观点**: Although the tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with the market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The lithium carbonate price index and contract price changes are provided. The inventory decreased, and the export tax - rebate policy adjusted [25]. - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [26]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina index fell. The basis, overseas price, and inventory information are provided [28]. - **策略观点**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling on rallies [29]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless - steel price rose. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory information are provided [30]. - **策略观点**: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell. The inventory and trading volume information are provided [32]. - **策略观点**: The cost supports the price, but the demand is average. The price is expected to move sideways in the short term [33]. Black and Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. The inventory and demand information are provided [35]. - **策略观点**: The steel production has increased slightly, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still high. Pay attention to the de - stocking progress and policy changes [36]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [37][38]. - **策略观点**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume is declining. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The coking coal price fell, and the coke price rose. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [40][41]. - **策略观点**: The coking coal price was driven by the market atmosphere and policy expectations. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks [42][44]. Glass and Soda Ash - **玻璃行情资讯**: The glass price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [46]. - **玻璃策略观点**: The glass daily melting volume has decreased, and the cost supports the price. However, the terminal demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **纯碱行情资讯**: The soda - ash price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [47]. - **纯碱策略观点**: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [47]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [48]. - **策略观点**: The commodity market sentiment may continue, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks. The future market trends are affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **工业硅行情资讯**: The industrial silicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [51]. - **工业硅策略观点**: The industrial silicon supply and demand are difficult to change significantly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [52][54]. - **多晶硅行情资讯**: The polysilicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [55]. - **多晶硅策略观点**: The polysilicon price was affected by market sentiment and policy. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [56]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate, inventory, and spot price information are provided [58][59][61]. - **策略观点**: The rubber seasonality is weak. Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider short - selling if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [62]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The crude oil price fell, and the prices of related refined products changed. The US EIA weekly data shows the inventory changes [63]. - **策略观点**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a range - trading strategy [64]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [65]. - **策略观点**: The methanol valuation is low, and the future pattern is expected to improve. It is feasible to buy on dips [66]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [67][68]. - **策略观点**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [69]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices, basis, and supply - demand information of pure benzene and styrene are provided [70]. - **策略观点**: The styrene non - integrated profit has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter [71]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory information are provided [72]. - **策略观点**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [73]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [76]. - **策略观点**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the valuation may be compressed in the medium term. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term [77]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [78]. - **策略观点**: The PTA supply is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline. It is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [79]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [80]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price in the medium term [81][82]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [83]. - **策略观点**: The PE price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price rose. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [85]. - **策略观点**: The PP supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026. The price may bottom out when the oversupply pattern changes [86]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The live pig prices in different regions changed. The northern farms are waiting for price increases, and the southern market may reduce prices to increase sales [88]. - **策略观点**: The low price and festival effect stimulate consumption. The short - term spot price may support the near - month contract. In the medium term, pay attention to the pressure on the near - contract and wait for rallies to short. In the long term, wait for price drops to go long [90]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg prices in different regions were stable or rising. The supply and demand are relatively normal, and some people are still bullish [91]. - **策略观点**: The late Spring Festival drives the near - month contract to be strong. However, the supply is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract. For the far - month contract, be cautious of over - valued pressure [92]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The protein meal futures prices were weakly volatile. The USDA data shows the global soybean production and consumption situation. The domestic soybean inventory and oil - mill operating rate are provided [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall situation is better than in 2024/25. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [95]. Oils - **行情资讯**: The oil futures prices fell. The USDA and other data show the production, consumption, and inventory situation of different oils [96][97][98]. - **策略观点**: The current fundamental situation of palm oil is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [99]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar futures price was volatile. The UNICA and other data show the sugar production and export situation in Brazil [100][101]. - **策略观点**: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support level. The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The short - term downward space of the domestic sugar price is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [102]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton futures price fell slightly. The USDA data shows the global cotton production and consumption situation. The domestic cotton inventory and spinning - mill operating rate are provided [103][104][105]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is neutral. The Zhengzhou cotton price is mainly affected by the domestic market. Wait for price corrections to go long [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to buy on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold [5][7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase. There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when the hourly technical pattern weakens and not to open new long or short positions [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment. Some are expected to rise further, while others need to pay attention to the impact of inventory and other factors on prices [11][12][13][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillation range. Glass and soda ash markets are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron need to pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors [31][32][33][34]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices are oscillating strongly with a neutral - to - long - term view. Oil prices are maintained with a low - buy and high - sell strategy. Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. Urea is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Other chemicals also have their own supply - demand and price trends [47][50][51][52]. - For agricultural products, the short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound. Egg prices may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. Other agricultural products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand relationships [74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to improve the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares. Rules for commercial rocket companies to list on the STAR Market are refined. The first batch of L3 - level autonomous vehicles in China start large - scale road operation. International gold and silver prices reach new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. National industrial enterprise profit data is released, and a fiscal work meeting is held, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducts 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rise. The expected expansion of US fiscal policy drives up the price of gold, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year, pushing up the price of silver [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and not to open new positions [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai copper breaks through 100,000 yuan per ton. The weekly inventory of copper at the SHFE increases, and the spot discount expands [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of copper is expected to rise further, but attention should be paid to the suppression of inventory accumulation on the upward trend [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rises. The inventory of aluminum ingots increases slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreases [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of aluminum is expected to rise further, supported by the rise of precious metals and copper prices [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc rises. The inventory of zinc ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of zinc are weak, but there is a risk of supplementary price increases following the sector [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead rises. The inventory of lead ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, but the price is supported by the reduction of supply on the recycling side and low inventory [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel rebounds slightly. The spot premium and the price of nickel ore and nickel pig iron change [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin rises. The production of tin smelting enterprises and the demand of tin solder enterprises change [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The price of Australian lithium concentrate also rises [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The change in the pricing method and the initiative in long - term contracts are beneficial to the restoration of the spot valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises. The spot price, overseas price, and inventory change [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of ore is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to wait and see and not to chase long positions blindly [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel changes. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The demand is weak, and the winter storage intention is low [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rises. The spot price, basis, and inventory change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore decreases, the demand is stable, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash change. The inventory, positions, and spot prices change [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to remain weak, and the soda ash market has limited rebound strength [36][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron change. The spot prices and basis change [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the risk of supplementary price increases in the black sector and the cost and supply factors of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon change. The spot prices, positions, and inventory change [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate [43][45]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillates strongly. The tire start - up rate, inventory, and spot price change [47][48][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the prices of refined oil products rise. The inventory of Singapore ESG oil products changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of methanol change [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of urea change [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of urea decreases, and the demand increases. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rises. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to compress the valuation [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of PP are weak, and attention should be paid to the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost end in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: The price of hogs rises. The supply and demand in the market change [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs is stable or rises. The supply and demand in the market change [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - month and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far - month [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans falls. The domestic soybean meal price, trading volume, and inventory change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybean meal has a bottom support, and the price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil change. The import of Indian vegetable oil decreases. The price of domestic oils and fats rebounds [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe the high - frequency production and export data and operate short - term [82][83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar rises. The import volume of sugar and syrup changes. The production of sugar in Brazil and India changes [84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton rises. The spot price, import volume, and inventory change [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a non - pessimistic view on the black sector. It is believed that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than short - selling. The black sector's downward momentum has significantly weakened after nearly four years of decline. Overseas will face a situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and China still has sufficient fiscal space and potential demand - supporting policies. [10] Summary by Category Steel Products Market Information - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.894916 million lots, an increase of 909 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.80%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,835 tons, a decrease of 5938 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.473286 million lots, an increase of 12,227 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai, it was 3330 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a volatile trend. Macroscopically, on October 30, Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift towards a "loose" monetary policy, and the Sino - US summit released positive signals. Fundamentally, rebar's supply and demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline; the demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but production was still high, and inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level. In the future, steel consumption may gradually recover, and short - term demand is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environment changes. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.25% (-2.00). The open interest increased by 8698 lots to 551,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 930,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.06 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.31%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase and were at a high level. Australia's shipments were flat, Brazil's increased, and non - mainstream countries' shipments decreased slightly. The near - term arrivals were at a low level due to previous high arrivals. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new low, and some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance. Overall, the iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained. After the macro - events were realized, the fundamentals were weak, and there was a risk of a phased decline in ore prices. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.17% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton. The price was in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton and was approaching the downward trend line since July. [8] - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF601) closed down 0.79% at 5550 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The price was in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and it faced pressure after touching the downward trend line since July. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Important meetings had positive statements but no unexpected content. The black - sector fundamentals were worried about high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" if steel mill profitability further declined. The report was not pessimistic about the black - sector's future and believed that buying on dips for rebounds was more cost - effective. Manganese silicon's fundamentals were poor, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions and was likely to follow the black - sector trend. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - **Industrial silicon**: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 9155 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (-15). The open interest decreased by 8091 lots to 424,602 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 145 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 255 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, down 0.07% (-40). The open interest decreased by 1181 lots to 248,933 lots. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the main contract basis was - 2650 yuan/ton. There was news that domestic photovoltaic leading enterprises planned a joint stockpiling. [15] Strategy Viewpoints - **Industrial silicon**: Supply pressure persisted, with production increasing in the northwest and a potential decline in the southwest during the dry season. Demand support weakened as polysilicon plants were about to enter maintenance and the organic silicon DMC operating rate decreased. Cost factors provided some support, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. [13][14] - **Polysilicon**: Supply pressure might ease marginally as some plants enter maintenance. Downstream operating rates were expected to be stable, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but short - term de - stocking was limited. Policy expectations had a strong impact on prices, and market speculation was intense. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of policies and platform - company progress. [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, down 3.19% (-36). The spot prices in North China and Central China were unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 823,000 cases (-1.24%) to 65.79 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 88,841 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased by 163,567 lots. [18] - **Soda ash**: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, down 1.91% (-24). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 24 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 10,000 tons (-1.24%) to 1.702 million tons, with heavy - soda inventory decreasing and light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 18,196 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased by 7845 lots. [20] Strategy Viewpoints - **Glass**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting did not give clear guidance, and the "anti - involution" expectation was dashed, leading to a sharp increase in short positions and a decline in the price. Supply was abundant, inventory was accumulating, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the operation of production lines in Shahe. [19] - **Soda ash**: Affected by the weak glass market, the price was under pressure. Rising coal prices increased production costs, providing some support. However, the de - stocking process was slow, and inventory was higher than usual. The price was expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to plant operating rates and downstream purchase rhythms. [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The market is currently affected by factors such as Sino - US trade disputes, policy expectations, and seasonal demand. Short - term uncertainties exist, but in the long - term, policies are expected to support the capital market. For the black sector, there is potential for a rebound, and for most commodities, specific supply - demand and cost factors need to be considered [4][8][44]. - **Investment Strategies**: Different commodities have different investment strategies. For example, for some commodities, it is recommended to wait and see, while for others, it is suggested to look for opportunities to go long on dips or short on rallies. 3. Summary by Category **Macro - Financial** - **Stock Index**: After the continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the market risk preference has decreased. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk preference, which is beneficial for the bond market to recover. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the fourth quarter. The bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed's monetary policy is in the initial stage of the easing cycle. The risk events in the banking industry provide a reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet reduction. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and look for opportunities to go long on dips [9][11]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream consumption has improved after the price decline. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Sino - US trade tensions may ease marginally. The inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased after the price decline, and the price is supported by the increase in copper prices. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [15][16]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ore inventory has decreased, and the zinc ingot inventory has increased. The overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak in the short - term [17]. - **Lead**: The lead ore port inventory has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The lead ingot inventory has decreased. It is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short - term [18][19]. - **Nickel**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the impact on nickel is relatively small. The nickel iron price has weakened, and the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and domestic policies will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [20][21]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the demand has improved in the peak season. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season, and the supply is less than the demand. The inventory has decreased, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery [23][24]. - **Alumina**: The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price limit increase of 304 cold - rolled steel by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but the downstream demand is still weak. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [28][29]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation may improve the cost - side support, but the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is large, and the upward price space is limited [29][31]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was poor last Friday, and the steel price fluctuated downward. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. The steel demand is still weak in the short - term, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased seasonally, and the iron water production has decreased due to the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory has increased, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass factory inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market is in a situation of over - supply, and both are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [38][41]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Sino - US trade disputes and coal mine safety accidents have affected the market. The black sector is expected to have a potential rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [42][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon price is affected by the overall market environment and supply - demand factors, and it is expected to be in a short - term consolidation. The polysilicon policy expectation has an impact on the price, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the future [46][50]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Rubber**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long in the short - term, and partially build a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52][56]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [57][58]. - **Methanol**: The import arrival has decreased in the short - term, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is still weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and look for 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [59][61]. - **Urea**: The short - term operating rate has decreased, and the cost support is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - matching opportunities [62]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the styrene price may stop falling in the short - term [63][64]. - **PVC**: The enterprise profit has declined, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [65][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply load is high, and the port inventory has increased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [67][68]. - **PTA**: The supply is in a slight accumulation state, and the demand is stable. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The cost - side support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The polyethylene price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [74][75]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The cost - side supply is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [76][77]. **Agricultural Products** - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is greater than the demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to sell on rallies [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is high, and the demand is weak. The spot price has a limited rebound space. The egg price is expected to be in a weak bottom - building state. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The vegetable oil inventory in India and Southeast Asia is low, and the demand for soybean oil is boosted. The oils and fats market is in a state of balanced supply - demand in the short - term and is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [86][87]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase production in the new season. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [88][90]. - **Cotton**: The Sino - US trade conflict is not conducive to the cotton price. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [91][92].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainties. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - The recent intensification of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to the repair of the bond market in the short term, but the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the later period. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend overall [7]. - The prices of precious metals are in a stage of trending upward, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For most metals, Sino - US trade tensions bring uncertainties, but different metals have different price trends based on their own fundamentals, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [12][14][16]. - For steel products, Trump's new tariff remarks have a short - term impact on prices, but in the long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loose macro - environment. The short - term real demand for steel is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. - For the black building materials sector, although the current fundamentals are weak, considering the macro - factors, the sector may gradually have the cost - performance of long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the Fourth Plenary Session [41]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their own supply - demand relationships and market environments, such as rubber, crude oil, methanol, etc. [52][54][55]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, the price of live pigs may have different trends in the near - term and far - term, and the price of eggs is expected to be weak in the short - term and may rebound in the medium - term [77][79]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the construction of millisecond computing networks; TSMC is in the early stage of AI application with strong demand; US Treasury Secretary said Trump will visit Japan and attend the APEC meeting [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and the short - term index is uncertain, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On October 16, the Ministry of Commerce said it would take measures to stabilize foreign trade. The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Thursday [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2360 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3760 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term rise in Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial to the bond market, but the long - term depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rose. The overseas silver spot shortage has eased, and the Fed's policy expectations support the prices of gold and silver [8]. - **Strategy View**: The prices of precious metals are rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The trade situation is volatile, the dollar index is weak, and copper prices are rising. LME copper inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [11]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices, and the short - term decline may be limited [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are strong. LME aluminum inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [13]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade is uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is small, and aluminum prices may continue to be strong [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc index fell, and the price of LME zinc rose. The inventory and basis of zinc have changed [15]. - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal, and the short - term support for Shanghai zinc comes from the opening of the export window. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead index fell, and the price of LME lead fell. The inventory and basis of lead have changed [17]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory has increased slightly, and the structural risk of LME lead has increased. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The spot market trading was average, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade friction may have a small impact on nickel prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips if the price drops [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is mixed. The consumption in the traditional peak season has improved [20]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices may remain high and volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the price of the LC2601 contract rose [21]. - **Strategy View**: Social and exchange inventories are decreasing. The spot is tight, and lithium prices may be strong in the short - term [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of the alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of the stainless steel main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [25]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the inventory has increased, and the terminal consumption is weak. The market is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume and inventory have changed [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost supports the price, but the price upside is limited due to market sentiment and delivery pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts rose. The registered warehouse receipts and inventory have changed [30]. - **Strategy View**: The overall commodity market was strong, but the real demand for steel is weak. The long - term trend is unchanged, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of the iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased, and the demand is weak. The iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of the glass main contract rose, and the inventory increased. The price of the soda ash main contract rose, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The soda ash supply is stable, and the demand is weak. Both are expected to be weak [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the price of the ferrosilicon main contract rose. The spot price and basis have changed [38]. - **Strategy View**: The black building materials sector may rebound after a short - term decline. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the sector's trend [39][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rose, and the price of the polysilicon main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is stable, and the price may rise in the long - term. The polysilicon price is affected by policy and supply - demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][47]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is stabilizing. The tire enterprise's operating rate has changed, and the inventory has decreased [49][51]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price is stable in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of the INE main crude oil futures rose, and the inventory of refined oil products in the port has changed [53]. - **Strategy View**: The oil price should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [55]. - **Strategy View**: The import is delayed, and the supply is slightly lower. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Strategy View**: The urea production has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene is stable, and the price of styrene has risen. The supply and demand have changed [58]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the decrease in inventory and the increase in demand [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of the PVC01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [60]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of the EG01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [62][64]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of the PTA01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA supply is in a de - stocking pattern, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of the PX01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [68]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [69][70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of the PE main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of the PP main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [73]. - **Strategy View**: The PP supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by cost and inventory [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price has risen. The demand in the south is increasing, and the secondary fattening in the north is weakening [76]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, but the risk has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price has risen. The supply is stable, and the market is running well [78]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the egg price is weak due to supply and demand factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price has risen, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory have changed. The Brazilian soybean planting area is expected to increase [80]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and trade in a range in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil export and production have increased. India's vegetable oil import has decreased. Indonesia plans to raise the palm oil export tax [82]. - **Strategy View**: The oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is fluctuating. The Brazilian sugar export is increasing, and the domestic spot price has decreased [84]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [85][86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has risen. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase [87]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is affected by Sino - US trade and supply - demand. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff statement may impact the commodity market, but the overall macro - environment is gradually turning more accommodative. In the short term, the weak reality is hard to reverse, and the policy strength around the Fourth Plenary Session needs attention [2]. - For the black sector, instead of short - selling, finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The macro factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading, and the black sector may gradually have the value of long - allocation around the Fourth Plenary Session [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.226%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,267 tons, a net increase of 1,531 tons. The position of the main contract was 1,926,153 lots, up 18,024 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1,397,651 lots, up 23,065 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3350 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline with the overall weakening of the commodity market sentiment. The impact level of this tariff policy may be smaller compared to the market on April 7. Fundamentally, steel demand during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than the same period last year. For rebar, terminal demand reached a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and inventory increased prominently. The follow - up demand recovery needs attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) last Friday was 795.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57% (+4.50), with a position change of +16,626 lots to 476,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 786,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.84 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.11% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: At the end of the third quarter, the shipping rush of mines ended. The latest overseas iron ore shipping volume remained stable at a high level year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The shipping volume from Australia decreased slightly, that from Brazil was basically flat, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume increased month - on - month [5]. - Demand: The latest daily average pig iron output was 2415400 tons, down 2700 tons month - on - month. Pig iron production was stable, with both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, mainly short - term overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel during the holiday increased, and the post - holiday destocking situation needs attention. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, iron ore prices may adjust accordingly. The "Silver October" market after the restocking needs attention [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 10, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.66% at 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 214 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon: Its fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. However, the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively firm. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it will follow the black sector [11]. - Ferrosilicon: Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and will also likely follow the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) last Friday was 8685 yuan/ton, up 0.52% (+45). The weighted contract position increased by 7625 lots to 415,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 615 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 215 yuan/ton [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) last Friday was 48965 yuan/ton, down 3.55% (-1800). The weighted contract position increased by 12,710 lots to 246,722 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.55 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 3585 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: In the short term, the price is under downward pressure due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes. But in the future, as the southwest region enters the dry season, production will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The valuation of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested, the price may rise again [14]. - Polysilicon: Before the policy is actually implemented or new catalytic variables appear, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. In the short term, the price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. In the medium term, the capacity integration policy is not overly pessimistic, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The short - term price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction, and the price has downward pressure with support at 47,000 - 48,000 yuan/ton [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The closing price of the glass main contract at 15:00 on Friday was 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1230 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62,824,000 cases, up 3,469,000 cases (+5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 48,221 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 94,116 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The closing price of the soda ash main contract at 15:00 on Friday was 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1170 yuan, up 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons. The inventory of heavy soda ash was 922,400 tons, down 83,700 tons; the inventory of light soda ash was 729,100 tons, down 20,400 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 41,312 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 82,741 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Downstream procurement is active, some manufacturers are strongly willing to hold prices, and the overall spot price is rising. Regional inventory performance varies significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up policy, and the short - term view is bullish [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is trading steadily, with the prices of heavy and light soda ash remaining stable and fluctuating slightly. The supply side decreased slightly due to short - term shutdowns of individual devices. During the holiday, enterprise shipments slowed down, and inventory accumulated. The market is wait - and - see. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, steel and ore prices rose first and then fell, showing a weak trend. The weak expectation of future demand was the main factor for the overall decline [61]. - From a fundamental perspective, the situation of screw and coil was not as bad as the price trend. Although the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased slightly, the apparent demand for rebar increased. The weak expectation of future demand was the main reason for the price decline [61]. - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" jointly issued by five departments did not clearly cut production capacity but admitted the current reduction in steel demand, which hit market confidence. The performance in the traditional "Golden September" season confirmed this pessimistic expectation, with prices rising and then falling [61]. - Iron ore was affected by the decrease in molten iron production and the increase in port inventory, fluctuating with screw and coil and difficult to strengthen independently. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely track the inventory depletion speed and the quality of terminal demand, pay attention to the introduction of policies on the implementation measures for steel industry capacity replacement, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the festival [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week data changes**: PB powder price decreased from 799 yuan/wet ton to 785 yuan/wet ton; Ba - mixed powder price decreased from 828 yuan/wet ton to 820 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 14.01 yuan/wet ton to - 10.71 yuan/wet ton, and Ba - mixed powder spot landing profit increased from - 5.81 yuan/wet ton to 0.73 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 223.9 tons to 1512.8 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 33 tons to 836.3 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 169 tons to 14550.68 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 358.1 tons to 2750.4 tons. The port throughput increased by 0.38 tons to 351.41 tons. The daily average port trading volume of iron ore increased by 9.1 tons to 94.9 tons, and the daily average molten iron production increased by 1.34 tons to 242.36 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 0.86% to 58.01% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week data changes**: The Shanghai rebar price remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 3.27% to 67.36%. The rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 14 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The rebar electric furnace profit increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton. The weekly rebar output increased by 0.01 tons to 206.46 tons, and the weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 tons to 324.19 tons [31]. - **Inventory and consumption data**: The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 13.32 tons to 471.89 tons, and the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.11 tons to 298.8 tons. The weekly enterprise inventory of rebar decreased by 0.66 tons to 164.41 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.4 tons to 81.7 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 10.41 tons to 220.44 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons to 321.68 tons. The building material trading volume decreased by 12776 tons to 101068 tons [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Production data**: The report presents historical data on the actual weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. - **Profit data**: It shows the historical data on the average daily profit of electric - furnace building steel in China from 2019 - 2025 [49]. - **Inventory data**: The report includes historical data on the weekly social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China from 2019 - 2025 [50][52]. - **Trading volume data**: It provides historical data on the daily trading volume of mainstream building - steel traders in China from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Apparent consumption data**: The report shows the historical data on the weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [55]. - **Export data**: It presents the monthly export volume of Chinese steel from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Real - estate data**: The report includes historical data on the cumulative year - on - year changes in investment completion, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises in China from 1999 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Manufacturing PMI data**: It shows the monthly manufacturing PMI value from 2019 - 2025 [60].