Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a non - pessimistic view on the black sector. It is believed that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than short - selling. The black sector's downward momentum has significantly weakened after nearly four years of decline. Overseas will face a situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and China still has sufficient fiscal space and potential demand - supporting policies. [10] Summary by Category Steel Products Market Information - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.894916 million lots, an increase of 909 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.80%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,835 tons, a decrease of 5938 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.473286 million lots, an increase of 12,227 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai, it was 3330 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a volatile trend. Macroscopically, on October 30, Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift towards a "loose" monetary policy, and the Sino - US summit released positive signals. Fundamentally, rebar's supply and demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline; the demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but production was still high, and inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level. In the future, steel consumption may gradually recover, and short - term demand is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environment changes. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.25% (-2.00). The open interest increased by 8698 lots to 551,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 930,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.06 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.31%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase and were at a high level. Australia's shipments were flat, Brazil's increased, and non - mainstream countries' shipments decreased slightly. The near - term arrivals were at a low level due to previous high arrivals. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new low, and some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance. Overall, the iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained. After the macro - events were realized, the fundamentals were weak, and there was a risk of a phased decline in ore prices. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.17% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton. The price was in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton and was approaching the downward trend line since July. [8] - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF601) closed down 0.79% at 5550 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The price was in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and it faced pressure after touching the downward trend line since July. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Important meetings had positive statements but no unexpected content. The black - sector fundamentals were worried about high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" if steel mill profitability further declined. The report was not pessimistic about the black - sector's future and believed that buying on dips for rebounds was more cost - effective. Manganese silicon's fundamentals were poor, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions and was likely to follow the black - sector trend. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - **Industrial silicon**: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 9155 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (-15). The open interest decreased by 8091 lots to 424,602 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 145 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 255 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, down 0.07% (-40). The open interest decreased by 1181 lots to 248,933 lots. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the main contract basis was - 2650 yuan/ton. There was news that domestic photovoltaic leading enterprises planned a joint stockpiling. [15] Strategy Viewpoints - **Industrial silicon**: Supply pressure persisted, with production increasing in the northwest and a potential decline in the southwest during the dry season. Demand support weakened as polysilicon plants were about to enter maintenance and the organic silicon DMC operating rate decreased. Cost factors provided some support, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. [13][14] - **Polysilicon**: Supply pressure might ease marginally as some plants enter maintenance. Downstream operating rates were expected to be stable, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but short - term de - stocking was limited. Policy expectations had a strong impact on prices, and market speculation was intense. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of policies and platform - company progress. [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, down 3.19% (-36). The spot prices in North China and Central China were unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 823,000 cases (-1.24%) to 65.79 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 88,841 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased by 163,567 lots. [18] - **Soda ash**: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, down 1.91% (-24). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 24 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 10,000 tons (-1.24%) to 1.702 million tons, with heavy - soda inventory decreasing and light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 18,196 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased by 7845 lots. [20] Strategy Viewpoints - **Glass**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting did not give clear guidance, and the "anti - involution" expectation was dashed, leading to a sharp increase in short positions and a decline in the price. Supply was abundant, inventory was accumulating, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the operation of production lines in Shahe. [19] - **Soda ash**: Affected by the weak glass market, the price was under pressure. Rising coal prices increased production costs, providing some support. However, the de - stocking process was slow, and inventory was higher than usual. The price was expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to plant operating rates and downstream purchase rhythms. [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The market is currently affected by factors such as Sino - US trade disputes, policy expectations, and seasonal demand. Short - term uncertainties exist, but in the long - term, policies are expected to support the capital market. For the black sector, there is potential for a rebound, and for most commodities, specific supply - demand and cost factors need to be considered [4][8][44]. - **Investment Strategies**: Different commodities have different investment strategies. For example, for some commodities, it is recommended to wait and see, while for others, it is suggested to look for opportunities to go long on dips or short on rallies. 3. Summary by Category **Macro - Financial** - **Stock Index**: After the continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the market risk preference has decreased. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk preference, which is beneficial for the bond market to recover. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the fourth quarter. The bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed's monetary policy is in the initial stage of the easing cycle. The risk events in the banking industry provide a reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet reduction. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and look for opportunities to go long on dips [9][11]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream consumption has improved after the price decline. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Sino - US trade tensions may ease marginally. The inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased after the price decline, and the price is supported by the increase in copper prices. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [15][16]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ore inventory has decreased, and the zinc ingot inventory has increased. The overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak in the short - term [17]. - **Lead**: The lead ore port inventory has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The lead ingot inventory has decreased. It is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short - term [18][19]. - **Nickel**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the impact on nickel is relatively small. The nickel iron price has weakened, and the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and domestic policies will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [20][21]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the demand has improved in the peak season. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season, and the supply is less than the demand. The inventory has decreased, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery [23][24]. - **Alumina**: The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price limit increase of 304 cold - rolled steel by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but the downstream demand is still weak. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [28][29]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation may improve the cost - side support, but the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is large, and the upward price space is limited [29][31]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was poor last Friday, and the steel price fluctuated downward. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. The steel demand is still weak in the short - term, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased seasonally, and the iron water production has decreased due to the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory has increased, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass factory inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market is in a situation of over - supply, and both are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [38][41]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Sino - US trade disputes and coal mine safety accidents have affected the market. The black sector is expected to have a potential rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [42][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon price is affected by the overall market environment and supply - demand factors, and it is expected to be in a short - term consolidation. The polysilicon policy expectation has an impact on the price, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the future [46][50]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Rubber**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long in the short - term, and partially build a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52][56]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [57][58]. - **Methanol**: The import arrival has decreased in the short - term, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is still weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and look for 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [59][61]. - **Urea**: The short - term operating rate has decreased, and the cost support is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - matching opportunities [62]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the styrene price may stop falling in the short - term [63][64]. - **PVC**: The enterprise profit has declined, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [65][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply load is high, and the port inventory has increased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [67][68]. - **PTA**: The supply is in a slight accumulation state, and the demand is stable. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The cost - side support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The polyethylene price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [74][75]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The cost - side supply is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [76][77]. **Agricultural Products** - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is greater than the demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to sell on rallies [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is high, and the demand is weak. The spot price has a limited rebound space. The egg price is expected to be in a weak bottom - building state. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The vegetable oil inventory in India and Southeast Asia is low, and the demand for soybean oil is boosted. The oils and fats market is in a state of balanced supply - demand in the short - term and is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [86][87]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase production in the new season. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [88][90]. - **Cotton**: The Sino - US trade conflict is not conducive to the cotton price. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [91][92].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainties. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - The recent intensification of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to the repair of the bond market in the short term, but the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the later period. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend overall [7]. - The prices of precious metals are in a stage of trending upward, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For most metals, Sino - US trade tensions bring uncertainties, but different metals have different price trends based on their own fundamentals, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [12][14][16]. - For steel products, Trump's new tariff remarks have a short - term impact on prices, but in the long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loose macro - environment. The short - term real demand for steel is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. - For the black building materials sector, although the current fundamentals are weak, considering the macro - factors, the sector may gradually have the cost - performance of long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the Fourth Plenary Session [41]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their own supply - demand relationships and market environments, such as rubber, crude oil, methanol, etc. [52][54][55]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, the price of live pigs may have different trends in the near - term and far - term, and the price of eggs is expected to be weak in the short - term and may rebound in the medium - term [77][79]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the construction of millisecond computing networks; TSMC is in the early stage of AI application with strong demand; US Treasury Secretary said Trump will visit Japan and attend the APEC meeting [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and the short - term index is uncertain, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On October 16, the Ministry of Commerce said it would take measures to stabilize foreign trade. The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Thursday [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2360 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3760 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term rise in Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial to the bond market, but the long - term depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rose. The overseas silver spot shortage has eased, and the Fed's policy expectations support the prices of gold and silver [8]. - **Strategy View**: The prices of precious metals are rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The trade situation is volatile, the dollar index is weak, and copper prices are rising. LME copper inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [11]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices, and the short - term decline may be limited [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are strong. LME aluminum inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [13]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade is uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is small, and aluminum prices may continue to be strong [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc index fell, and the price of LME zinc rose. The inventory and basis of zinc have changed [15]. - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal, and the short - term support for Shanghai zinc comes from the opening of the export window. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead index fell, and the price of LME lead fell. The inventory and basis of lead have changed [17]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory has increased slightly, and the structural risk of LME lead has increased. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The spot market trading was average, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade friction may have a small impact on nickel prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips if the price drops [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is mixed. The consumption in the traditional peak season has improved [20]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices may remain high and volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the price of the LC2601 contract rose [21]. - **Strategy View**: Social and exchange inventories are decreasing. The spot is tight, and lithium prices may be strong in the short - term [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of the alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of the stainless steel main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [25]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the inventory has increased, and the terminal consumption is weak. The market is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume and inventory have changed [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost supports the price, but the price upside is limited due to market sentiment and delivery pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts rose. The registered warehouse receipts and inventory have changed [30]. - **Strategy View**: The overall commodity market was strong, but the real demand for steel is weak. The long - term trend is unchanged, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of the iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased, and the demand is weak. The iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of the glass main contract rose, and the inventory increased. The price of the soda ash main contract rose, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The soda ash supply is stable, and the demand is weak. Both are expected to be weak [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the price of the ferrosilicon main contract rose. The spot price and basis have changed [38]. - **Strategy View**: The black building materials sector may rebound after a short - term decline. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the sector's trend [39][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rose, and the price of the polysilicon main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is stable, and the price may rise in the long - term. The polysilicon price is affected by policy and supply - demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][47]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is stabilizing. The tire enterprise's operating rate has changed, and the inventory has decreased [49][51]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price is stable in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of the INE main crude oil futures rose, and the inventory of refined oil products in the port has changed [53]. - **Strategy View**: The oil price should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [55]. - **Strategy View**: The import is delayed, and the supply is slightly lower. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Strategy View**: The urea production has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene is stable, and the price of styrene has risen. The supply and demand have changed [58]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the decrease in inventory and the increase in demand [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of the PVC01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [60]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of the EG01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [62][64]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of the PTA01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA supply is in a de - stocking pattern, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of the PX01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [68]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [69][70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of the PE main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of the PP main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [73]. - **Strategy View**: The PP supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by cost and inventory [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price has risen. The demand in the south is increasing, and the secondary fattening in the north is weakening [76]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, but the risk has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price has risen. The supply is stable, and the market is running well [78]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the egg price is weak due to supply and demand factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price has risen, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory have changed. The Brazilian soybean planting area is expected to increase [80]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and trade in a range in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil export and production have increased. India's vegetable oil import has decreased. Indonesia plans to raise the palm oil export tax [82]. - **Strategy View**: The oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is fluctuating. The Brazilian sugar export is increasing, and the domestic spot price has decreased [84]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [85][86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has risen. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase [87]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is affected by Sino - US trade and supply - demand. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff statement may impact the commodity market, but the overall macro - environment is gradually turning more accommodative. In the short term, the weak reality is hard to reverse, and the policy strength around the Fourth Plenary Session needs attention [2]. - For the black sector, instead of short - selling, finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The macro factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading, and the black sector may gradually have the value of long - allocation around the Fourth Plenary Session [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.226%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,267 tons, a net increase of 1,531 tons. The position of the main contract was 1,926,153 lots, up 18,024 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1,397,651 lots, up 23,065 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3350 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline with the overall weakening of the commodity market sentiment. The impact level of this tariff policy may be smaller compared to the market on April 7. Fundamentally, steel demand during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than the same period last year. For rebar, terminal demand reached a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and inventory increased prominently. The follow - up demand recovery needs attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) last Friday was 795.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57% (+4.50), with a position change of +16,626 lots to 476,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 786,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.84 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.11% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: At the end of the third quarter, the shipping rush of mines ended. The latest overseas iron ore shipping volume remained stable at a high level year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The shipping volume from Australia decreased slightly, that from Brazil was basically flat, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume increased month - on - month [5]. - Demand: The latest daily average pig iron output was 2415400 tons, down 2700 tons month - on - month. Pig iron production was stable, with both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, mainly short - term overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel during the holiday increased, and the post - holiday destocking situation needs attention. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, iron ore prices may adjust accordingly. The "Silver October" market after the restocking needs attention [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 10, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.66% at 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 214 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon: Its fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. However, the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively firm. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it will follow the black sector [11]. - Ferrosilicon: Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and will also likely follow the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) last Friday was 8685 yuan/ton, up 0.52% (+45). The weighted contract position increased by 7625 lots to 415,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 615 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 215 yuan/ton [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) last Friday was 48965 yuan/ton, down 3.55% (-1800). The weighted contract position increased by 12,710 lots to 246,722 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.55 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 3585 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: In the short term, the price is under downward pressure due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes. But in the future, as the southwest region enters the dry season, production will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The valuation of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested, the price may rise again [14]. - Polysilicon: Before the policy is actually implemented or new catalytic variables appear, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. In the short term, the price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. In the medium term, the capacity integration policy is not overly pessimistic, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The short - term price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction, and the price has downward pressure with support at 47,000 - 48,000 yuan/ton [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The closing price of the glass main contract at 15:00 on Friday was 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1230 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62,824,000 cases, up 3,469,000 cases (+5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 48,221 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 94,116 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The closing price of the soda ash main contract at 15:00 on Friday was 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1170 yuan, up 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons. The inventory of heavy soda ash was 922,400 tons, down 83,700 tons; the inventory of light soda ash was 729,100 tons, down 20,400 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 41,312 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 82,741 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Downstream procurement is active, some manufacturers are strongly willing to hold prices, and the overall spot price is rising. Regional inventory performance varies significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up policy, and the short - term view is bullish [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is trading steadily, with the prices of heavy and light soda ash remaining stable and fluctuating slightly. The supply side decreased slightly due to short - term shutdowns of individual devices. During the holiday, enterprise shipments slowed down, and inventory accumulated. The market is wait - and - see. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, steel and ore prices rose first and then fell, showing a weak trend. The weak expectation of future demand was the main factor for the overall decline [61]. - From a fundamental perspective, the situation of screw and coil was not as bad as the price trend. Although the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased slightly, the apparent demand for rebar increased. The weak expectation of future demand was the main reason for the price decline [61]. - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" jointly issued by five departments did not clearly cut production capacity but admitted the current reduction in steel demand, which hit market confidence. The performance in the traditional "Golden September" season confirmed this pessimistic expectation, with prices rising and then falling [61]. - Iron ore was affected by the decrease in molten iron production and the increase in port inventory, fluctuating with screw and coil and difficult to strengthen independently. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely track the inventory depletion speed and the quality of terminal demand, pay attention to the introduction of policies on the implementation measures for steel industry capacity replacement, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the festival [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week data changes**: PB powder price decreased from 799 yuan/wet ton to 785 yuan/wet ton; Ba - mixed powder price decreased from 828 yuan/wet ton to 820 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 14.01 yuan/wet ton to - 10.71 yuan/wet ton, and Ba - mixed powder spot landing profit increased from - 5.81 yuan/wet ton to 0.73 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 223.9 tons to 1512.8 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 33 tons to 836.3 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 169 tons to 14550.68 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 358.1 tons to 2750.4 tons. The port throughput increased by 0.38 tons to 351.41 tons. The daily average port trading volume of iron ore increased by 9.1 tons to 94.9 tons, and the daily average molten iron production increased by 1.34 tons to 242.36 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 0.86% to 58.01% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week data changes**: The Shanghai rebar price remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 3.27% to 67.36%. The rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 14 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The rebar electric furnace profit increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton. The weekly rebar output increased by 0.01 tons to 206.46 tons, and the weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 tons to 324.19 tons [31]. - **Inventory and consumption data**: The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 13.32 tons to 471.89 tons, and the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.11 tons to 298.8 tons. The weekly enterprise inventory of rebar decreased by 0.66 tons to 164.41 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.4 tons to 81.7 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 10.41 tons to 220.44 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons to 321.68 tons. The building material trading volume decreased by 12776 tons to 101068 tons [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Production data**: The report presents historical data on the actual weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. - **Profit data**: It shows the historical data on the average daily profit of electric - furnace building steel in China from 2019 - 2025 [49]. - **Inventory data**: The report includes historical data on the weekly social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China from 2019 - 2025 [50][52]. - **Trading volume data**: It provides historical data on the daily trading volume of mainstream building - steel traders in China from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Apparent consumption data**: The report shows the historical data on the weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [55]. - **Export data**: It presents the monthly export volume of Chinese steel from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Real - estate data**: The report includes historical data on the cumulative year - on - year changes in investment completion, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises in China from 1999 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Manufacturing PMI data**: It shows the monthly manufacturing PMI value from 2019 - 2025 [60].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. Short - term hot metal production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, the iron ore price has support. It is necessary to continue observing the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [5]. - The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, in the future, the black sector may gradually become cost - effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - demand fundamentals and policies [12][14]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to remain in a volatile range, with limited price fluctuations [17][19]. Group 3: Summary of Each Category Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar主力 contract in the afternoon was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.409%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 21,922 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 109,368 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin increased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, overall demand is weak, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力 contract was 3380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.177%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 30,384 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. The overall demand is weak, although it has some resilience [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The closing price of the iron ore主力 contract (I2601) was 808.50 yuan/ton, up 0.12% (+1.00). The open interest decreased by 12,497 lots to 562,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 876,700 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.88% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, near - end arrivals increased, hot metal production increased, and steel mill profitability decreased. Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill imports increased. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Market Information**: After the release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures declined. The manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) closed down 1.58% at 5870 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) closed down 1.53% at 5648 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the trend of the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (-355). The weighted open interest decreased by 34,046 lots to 519,726 lots. In the现货 market, the price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 also increased by 100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the price has an upward space, it needs fundamental improvement. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (-1710). The weighted open interest increased by 6275 lots to 279,396 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material in the现货 market remained unchanged [13]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policies. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [14]. Glass - **Market Information**: The glass主力 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.40% (-17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 675,000 cases (-1.10%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Terminal demand is weak, supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The soda ash主力 contract closed at 1293 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.90% (-25). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 41,900 tons (-1.10%) [18]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. Production is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the prices of finished steel products have declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be monitored [4]. - The prices of iron ore futures have declined. In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments have increased, and the recent arrivals at ports have also increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production has decreased, and the profitability of steel mills has continued to decline. The inventory at ports has decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also decreased. Overall, the short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon futures have declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has receded, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The supply of manganese - silicon is increasing, and its price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand and relevant policies [10][12]. - The price of industrial silicon futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a short - term range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not been fundamentally resolved. The supply is increasing, while the demand support is limited. The price of polysilicon futures is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and uncertainty, and may continue to rise if positive news continues to be released [15][17]. - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will follow the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase may be limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3115 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.809%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts are 210,938 tons, a net increase of 12,041 tons. The main contract position is 1.633714 million lots, an increase of 578,004 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3303 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts are 24,760 tons, with no change. The main contract position is 1.195204 million lots, an increase of 28,571 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin is 3210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it is 3250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong is 3340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it is 3350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar has increased, the demand has slightly recovered but remains weak overall, and the inventory continues to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have declined, and the inventory has continued to increase [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 766.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.73% (-21.50), and the position changed by -19,658 lots to 454,000 lots. The weighted position is 754,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.51 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.72% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipments have increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The shipments from non - mainstream countries have also increased, and the recent arrivals at ports have increased. The daily average hot metal production has decreased, and the profitability of steel mills has continued to decline. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also decreased [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 1st, the manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed down 0.97% at 5736 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.61% at 5532 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has receded, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The supply of manganese - silicon is increasing, and its price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand and relevant policies [10][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8495 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+105). The weighted contract position changed by -20,685 lots to 503,690 lots [14]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China is 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of 421 is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is 455 yuan/ton and 105 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not been fundamentally resolved. The supply is increasing, while the demand support is limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,285 yuan/ton, up 5.51% (+2730). The weighted contract position changed by +5752 lots to 326,559 lots [16]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon is 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material is 48 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material is 49 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is -3285 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: It is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply is increasing, the production of silicon wafers has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased. The price is highly volatile and uncertain, and may continue to rise if positive news continues to be released [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe is 1134 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Central China is 1070 yuan, unchanged [19]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes (-1.63%) from the previous period, and a decrease of 11.31% year - on - year [19]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will follow the macro - sentiment [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price is 1165 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8193 million tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons (-2.58%) from last Thursday [20]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase may be limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of steel and ore diverged, with rebar and hot-rolled coils being weak, while iron ore was relatively strong [68]. - The marginal effects of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, weakening the price support, and the market focus returned to fundamentals [68]. - The weekly apparent demand for rebar continued to rise slightly, but the off - season demand remained weak, and social inventories continued to increase, putting pressure on the later - stage fundamentals. The situation of hot - rolled coils was relatively better, with demand expected to improve, but it was dragged down by rebar [68]. - Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The domestic inventory decreased month - on - month, and combined with the firm raw material prices, it supported the iron ore price [68]. - The market will enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" later, and whether the demand can pick up is the focus of attention. Technically, the price shows a bearish trend, and short - term short - side operations are recommended, but attention should be paid to the sudden intraday violent price fluctuations caused by the sentiment of capacity reduction [68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | PB powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 767 to 779, up 12 [6] | | Bahun powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 810 to 816, up 6 [6] | | PB powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from - 6.77 to - 11.35, down 4.58 [6] | | Bahun powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from 13.39 to - 2.61, down 16 [6] | | Australia's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Increased from 1347.5 to 1658.2, up 310.7 [6] | | Brazil's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 1065.5 to 811.7, down 253.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 14444.2 to 14388.02, down 56.18 [6] | | Imported iron ore arrival volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 2703.1 to 2462.3, down 240.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port clearance volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 341.04 to 334.14, down 6.9 [6] | | Iron ore port trading volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 81.9 to 60.9, down 21 [6] | | Average daily molten iron output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 240.75 to 240.13, down 0.62 [6] | | Steel enterprise profitability rate (%) | Decreased from 64.94 to 63.64, down 1.3 [6] | 3.1.2 Other Aspects Including iron ore port spot price, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipment volume, iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival volume and port clearance volume, steel enterprise production situation, iron ore port average daily trading volume and steel mill average daily molten iron, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [8][13][16] 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | Shanghai rebar price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3280 to 3270, down 10 [37] | | Shanghai hot - rolled coil price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3400 to 3380, down 20 [37] | | Blast furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 83.36 to 83.2, down 0.16 [37] | | Electric furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 75.69 to 75.1, down 0.59 [37] | | Rebar blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 67 to 33, down 34 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 95 to 66, down 29 [37] | | Rebar electric furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from - 93 to - 124, down 31 [37] | | Rebar weekly output (10,000 tons) | Increased from 214.65 to 220.56, up 5.91 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 325.24 to 324.74, down 0.5 [37] | | Rebar weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 432.51 to 453.77, up 21.26 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 282.55 to 285.78, up 3.23 [39] | | Rebar weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 174.53 to 169.62, down 4.91 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 78.89 to 79.68, up 0.79 [39] | | Rebar weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 194.8 to 204.21, up 9.41 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 318.18 to 321.71, up 3.53 [39] | | Building material trading volume (tons) | Decreased from 93906 to 83808, down 10098 [39] | 3.2.2 Other Aspects Including the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [42][44] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - It includes aspects such as blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profits, rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, building material trading volume, apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel exports, real estate development investment and sales data, and manufacturing PMI. However, no specific analysis content is provided other than data [46][49][53]