Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but shows high year - on - year growth, price highs are restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected that the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to mainly short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Current overseas ore shipments are in the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. Before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 19, the total global iron ore shipments were 29.898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1]. Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown super - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further upgrading of safety production supervision [1]. Inventory - Steel mill imports of iron ore inventory have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that as arrivals decline and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]. 4. Strategy - Interval operation and covered call options [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. Technically, futures prices face pressure after a short - term downward breakthrough. For the iron ore sector, the improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in iron ore demand and supply is limited. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, rebar apparent demand rebounded significantly, and the apparent demand of five major steel products rebounded while inventory decreased and production remained basically unchanged. The improvement in apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when futures prices fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices declined to varying degrees. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, with a daily average pig iron output of 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.65%. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17%. Rebar production was 190.30 million tons, a decrease of 0.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 0.93%. The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.99%, an increase of 1.08%. The operating rate was 72.97%. The five - major - product social inventory was 866.33 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. The rebar social inventory was 295.41 million tons, an increase of 5.23 million tons. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The five - major - product steel mill inventory was 380.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.08% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and the apparent demand rebounded. The pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in steel and pig iron output is limited. An accident at a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and the arrival volume decreased. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and returning to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, where there may be some support, but the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in time when the price rises in the future [4]. - **Data**: The settlement price of DCE iron ore futures and SGX iron ore futures declined. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with Australian shipments at 1440.1 million tons, a decrease of 13.22%, and Brazilian shipments at 480.1 million tons, a decrease of 25.80%. The arrival volume at northern six ports was 1442.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.79%. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.58%. The port inventory was 16555.1 million tons, an increase of 1.72% [4][5]. 3.3 Industry News - BHP's Pilbara iron ore production in Q4 2025 was 76.326 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.96% and a year - on - year increase of 4.26%. The total iron ore sales volume was 75.397 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.86%. The target guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 258 - 269 million tons [7]. - Heavy pollution weather orange alerts were activated in Henan's Xuchang and Jiaozuo on January 20, 2026, and industrial enterprises are required to implement emission reduction measures [7]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to December, the cumulative production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [7]. - On January 17, 2026, the first batch of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore from Guinea's Simandou project arrived at Majishan Port. The project's annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and the expected export volume in 2026 is 18 million tons [8].

供需偏宽松，盘面高位回落 铁矿石周报 20260120 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 交易逻辑：供需偏宽松，盘面高位回落 供应：外矿方面，1月12日-1月18日，全球铁矿石发运总量2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨；澳洲发运量1688万吨，环比减少 243.6万吨；巴西发运量553.7万吨，环比减少110.6万吨，非主流矿发运量1175.6万吨，环比增加175.7万吨。中国45港到港总 量2659.7万吨，环比减少260.7万吨。内矿方面，截至1月16日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量46.67万吨，环比增1.02万吨， 产能利用率59.72%，环比增1.31%；矿山精粉库存87.5万吨，环比增1.18万吨。 需求：1月16日当周，日均铁水产量228.01万吨，环比-1.49万吨。受环保影响，铁水产量小幅回落，叠加包钢事故影响部分高 炉，原料矿石需求有所减弱。 库存：本期进口矿库存持续回升，在港船舶数量增加1艘至117艘。本期压港小幅增加，到港量小幅回落仍维持高位，港口库存 持续累积，对矿价上方空间有所压制，而钢厂库存有所增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fed's easing cycle starts, but short - term rate - cut probability is low. Domestic macro narrative is positive, with rising expectations for incremental monetary policy, and industrial chain fundamentals improve. Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradiction needs to accumulate. Iron ore restocking demand supports spot prices, and supply enters the off - season. However, price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The short - term price has risen too much, the basis has shrunk significantly, and the upward space of finished product prices is limited. It is not recommended to chase high. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in the active reserve period, and the market has high expectations for incremental policies in the Two Sessions (starting on March 4). On January 6, the central bank emphasized using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, with policy pre - setting guiding the marginal improvement of corporate sentiment and policy expectations [1] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments enter the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for two consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to decline month - on - month but be higher than last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 12, Mysteel's total global iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 328,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.653 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 25.332 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.333 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.457 million tons [1] Demand - Domestic demand has rebounded for three consecutive weeks and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. Steel mill profitability has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventory has not shown excessive seasonal accumulation. Domestic steel mill demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the pre - festival restocking cycle has gradually started, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - Steel mill imports inventory has risen for three consecutive weeks, with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking cycle starting, but the inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. Later restocking demand will support the spot price. Port inventory continues to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease with the decline in arrivals and the increase in restocking demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The latest inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate. With the weakening demand, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, especially for rebar and wire rods. The supply pressure is gradually rising as steel mills resume production with the repair of profits. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased significantly, and the terminal consumption will continue to decline in the off - season. The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery trend, while the downstream construction consumption weakens. The supply - demand contradiction in the industry will gradually accumulate. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly due to the support of macro - policies and cost, but the weak demand still suppresses the market [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments have slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited incremental shipments in the first quarter due to seasonal factors. However, the previous shipments have turned into domestic arrivals, and the port inventory still has the pressure of accumulation, with the current port inventory reaching a new high in recent years. On the demand side, the molten iron output continues to rise in the short term, and steel mills continue to replenish stocks slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the market expects that the winter storage replenishment of steel mills may accelerate, providing some support for the ore price in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies Rebar - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products starts to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8]. - **Supply**: As steel profits recover, some steel mills resume production, molten iron output rises, and finished product output increases slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products declines, terminal consumption weakens in the off - season, and speculative demand is limited [8]. - **View**: The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery, while demand weakens, and the supply - demand contradiction accumulates. The steel price is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments have decreased, while domestic arrivals have increased. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10]. - **Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of 247 steel mills have increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continues to increase, and the steel mill inventory has also increased [10]. - **View**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment of steel mills provides short - term support for the ore price [10]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of iron ore is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, the RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3294 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar main - contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - The apparent consumption and trading volume of steel products are presented in relevant charts, showing the consumption and trading situation of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased [12]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. is presented in relevant charts. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8][12]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Steel Output**: The output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, etc. is presented in relevant charts. With the recovery of steel profits, the output of finished products has increased slightly [8][12]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is presented in relevant charts, with the profitability rate of 247 steel mills at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the previous week [10][12]. - **Blast Furnace Steel Mill**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [10][12]. - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mill**: The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric furnaces are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [12]. - **Molten Iron and Scrap Steel**: The molten iron output and scrap steel consumption are presented in relevant charts, with the molten iron output increasing [12]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Global Shipment**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10][145]. - **Australia - Brazil Shipment**: The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2666.5 tons, a decrease of 317.2 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments decreased by 165.7 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 151.5 tons [10][149]. - **Arrival Volume**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons [10][162]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17044.44 tons, an increase of 322.65 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of steel mills also increased [10][166]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory of national steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons compared with the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore increased, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased [10][182].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment drove the mid - week rally of black - series commodities. The upside of iron ore prices is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels. The subsequent focus should be on steel mills' restocking and hot metal production rhythms. As overseas shipments enter the off - season and hot metal production resumes, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. However, market sentiment has entered an unstable stage, increasing volatility risks, so operations should be cautious with attention to position control [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments totaled 3.2137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 2.7427 billion tons, down 316,900 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 billion tons, down 174,100 tons, and those to China were 1.6153 billion tons, down 252,300 tons. Brazilian shipments were 803,200 tons, down 142,700 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2.8247 billion tons, up 96,900 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, an increase of 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 17.04444 billion tons, up 322,650 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 336,960 tons, down 3,250 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were higher than the same period in previous years. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but remained at a low level, indicating some restocking demand [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spreads: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 80 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 22.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratios and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.66%, down 0.03 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, up 0.26 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.14%, down 0.24 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profits: The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 14.45 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - 45 - port Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory was 16.27526 billion tons, up 304,370 tons. Pellet inventory was 344,790 tons, up 2,790 tons. Iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.46277 billion tons, up 146,590 tons. Lump ore inventory was 2.11538 billion tons, down 17,650 tons. Australian ore port inventory was 7.18534 billion tons, up 98,190 tons. Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.6639 billion tons, up 92,650 tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mills' Imported Iron Ore Inventory: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.98959 billion tons, up 43,050 tons from last week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China via 19 ports was 1.5538 billion tons, down 248,500 tons week - on - week. Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, down 151,500 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 549,900 tons, down 146,400 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 496,400 tons, down 17,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 562,500 tons, down 72,700 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 276,600 tons, down 158,100 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival and Non - mainstream Imports: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.7564 billion tons, up 155,000 tons week - on - week. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1.90041 billion tons, down 84,500 tons month - on - month [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 58.41%, up 2.96 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 45,650 tons, up 2,320 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Hot Metal Production and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 229,500 tons, up 2,070 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mills' Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 323,270 tons, down 1,940 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 283,280 tons, up 2,610 tons week - on - week [73]. 3.6 Basis As of January 9, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 50.27 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.81% [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The destocking of the five major steel products continued during the pre - holiday market. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, with prices forming some support at low levels. The market drivers were limited, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Overall, the destocking may gradually slow down, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Iron ore is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but high port inventories will put pressure on its subsequent trend. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the pre - holiday market, the five major steel products continued to destock. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, and prices at low levels provided some support. The market drivers were limited, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil both increased production. Rebar's weekly output was 188.22 tons (up 2.08% week - on - week and down 8.64% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 304.51 tons (up 3.74% week - on - week and up 0.58% year - on - year). Rebar's blast furnace and electric furnace production both increased. The blast furnace weekly output was 157.49 tons (up 1.62% week - on - week and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly output was 30.73 tons (up 4.49% week - on - week and up 8.17% year - on - year) [13][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces both increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.94% (up 0.79% week - on - week and up 0.29% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 68.63% (up 1.48% week - on - week and up 1.13% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: Rebar's profit increased, while hot - rolled coil's profit slightly decreased. Rebar's profit was +48 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's profit was - 29 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: Rebar's demand slightly decreased, while hot - rolled coil's demand increased. Rebar's apparent consumption was 200.44 tons (down 1.11% week - on - week and up 5.47% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.66 tons (down 1.54% week - on - week and down 8.07% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's apparent consumption was 310.77 tons (up 1.21% week - on - week and up 2.66% year - on - year) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Rebar's inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar's factory inventory was 139.37 tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and up 14.76% year - on - year), social inventory was 282.66 tons (down 3.92% week - on - week and down 1.53% year - on - year), and total inventory was 422.03 tons (down 2.81% week - on - week and up 3.31% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's inventory decreased, with factory inventory rising and social inventory decreasing. Factory inventory was 82.32 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week and up 0.59% year - on - year), social inventory was 288.64 tons (down 2.72% week - on - week and up 24.01% year - on - year), and total inventory was 370.96 tons (down 1.66% week - on - week and up 20.79% year - on - year) [37][41][42][46]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both the commercial housing and land markets declined month - on - month. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and 16.33% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 74.78% month - on - month and 49.44% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [47][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.92 (up 1.05% month - on - month and up 11.23% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 tons (up 8.70% month - on - month and up 23.36% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons (up 5.96% month - on - month and down 2.75% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased. The daily output of hot metal was 227.43 tons (up 0.85 tons week - on - week and up 2.23 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 325.21 tons (up 3.22% week - on - week and up 2.18% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.88 days (up 0.76% week - on - week and down 9.2% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventories continued to reach new highs, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventories increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15970.89 tons (up 0.71% week - on - week and up 6.45% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8949.54 tons (up 0.97% week - on - week and down 9.25% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 25.42 days (up 0.95% week - on - week and down 7.43% year - on - year) [66][70]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased month - on - month, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 79.63% (down 5.44% month - on - month and down 10.21% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 35.09% (down 3.39% month - on - month and up 7.37% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 19.05 tons (up 49.47% month - on - month and up 33.49% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased month - on - month. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 65.25% (down 4.07% month - on - month and down 4.47% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 71.74% (down 12.94% week - on - week and up 54.91% year - on - year) [77][79]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants slightly recovered month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 14 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 2 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.74% (up 0.55% month - on - month and down 2.45% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 85.58% (up 0.07% month - on - month and down 0.34% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventories increased month - on - month, and coking plant inventories increased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 896.10 tons (up 1.42% month - on - month and up 1.02% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 802.50 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month and up 3.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 301.3 tons (up 0.60% month - on - month and down 39.59% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventories increased slightly, and coking plant inventories decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 48.7 tons (down 2.87% month - on - month and down 3.91% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 643.99 tons (up 0.28% month - on - month and down 1.67% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 180.09 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month and up 4.57% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 220 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][102]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil both shrank. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore shrank [104][108].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since mid-December last year, with the main contract price breaking through a five-month resistance level and reaching a new high [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 2025, iron ore prices are significantly outperforming other black commodities, with the iron ore price index reported at $105.80 per ton [1][2] - The current market structure shows a strong performance in spot prices, with port transactions increasing [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the supportive factors for iron ore prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, limiting upward price momentum [3] - Steel mills have gradually resumed production since 2026, with average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills at 2.2743 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore at 2.8067 million tons, both showing slight increases [3] - However, the profitability of steel mills remains low, with only 38.10% of the surveyed mills reporting profits, indicating ongoing financial pressure [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Pressure - Domestic port arrivals have increased, with the latest data showing 28.247 million tons at 47 ports, a weekly increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level for the year [4] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased to 32.137 million tons, down 4.6342 million tons week-on-week, but still higher than the same period last year [4] - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.2179 million tons, with significant pressure on inventory reduction [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In summary, while iron ore prices are supported by short-term factors, the overall fundamentals remain weak due to supply pressures and limited demand improvement, leading to expectations of a high-level oscillation in prices [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Its short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. - The iron ore market is in a state where the supply - demand sides have changed. Although the demand has increased to some extent and the supply has decreased, the fundamentals remain weak, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The overall view is high - level oscillation, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills have started to resume production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the improvement in profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market cannot support a large - scale increase in production, so the rebound space of ore demand is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again, but after the year - end rush, the miners' shipments have dropped significantly, and the domestic ore supply is also seasonally shrinking, so the ore supply has dropped from a high level. Currently, due to steel mills' restocking and structural contradictions in the spot market, the ore price remains at a high level, but the supply is relatively high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The overseas iron ore arrivals and shipments decreased last week but remained at high levels in the same period of history, with a significant increase in port inventory and continuous supply pressure. On the demand side, the molten iron production stopped falling and stabilized last week, and steel mills made small - scale replenishments before the holiday, leading to a low - level rebound in in - plant inventory. Supported by the pre - holiday replenishment, the market is expected to show a volatile trend [1][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3118 | - 1 | - 0.03 | 4998891 | 2309982 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3283 | 14 | 0.43 | 1750294 | 1238912 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 783.0 | 3.0 | 0.38 | 1134250 | 567104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1115.5 | 7.5 | 0.68 | 6630132 | 660689 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1720.0 | - 20.0 | - 1.15 | 107944 | 34179 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and rebounded last week. Supported by pre - holiday replenishment, both futures and spot prices rose slightly. In the spot market, the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 797 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special fines was 675 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB fines and Super Special fines was 122 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production stopped falling and stabilized last week. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments before the holiday, and the in - plant inventory rebounded from a low level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and 0.39 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 12.55 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average molten iron production was 226.58 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 1.29 tons from the same period last year [4]. - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore arrivals and shipments decreased last week but remained at high levels in the same period of history. The port inventory increased significantly, and the supply pressure remained. The total global iron ore shipments were 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 128.0 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2814.7 tons, a decrease of 150.8 tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1950.6 tons, a decrease of 102.0 tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1694.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 864.1 tons, a decrease of 48.8 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2748.6 tons, a decrease of 140.7 tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1889.2 tons, a decrease of 101.3 tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1633.1 tons, a decrease of 6.9 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 859.4 tons, a decrease of 39.4 tons from the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 16619.96 tons, an increase of 394.43 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing. It was pointed out that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue to be implemented in 2026, the fiscal expenditure scale would be expanded, and the government bond tool combination would be optimized. Six key tasks for fiscal work in 2026 were required, including focusing on domestic demand, boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas such as new - quality productivity and all - around human development, and increasing fiscal investment in science and technology [10]. - Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, chaired a meeting of the Leading Group for the Compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan. He emphasized planning major projects, projects, and carriers that could drive the overall situation to accumulate new momentum and competitiveness for future development and support domestic demand expansion and economic stability [10]. - Beijing further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy. The social security or individual income tax payment period for non - Beijing households to purchase commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road was reduced from "3 years" to "2 years", and outside the Fifth Ring Road from "2 years" to "1 year". Families with multiple children could purchase one more house within the Fifth Ring Road. The commercial loan interest rate no longer distinguished between first - and second - home purchases, and the minimum down - payment ratio for second - home provident fund loans was reduced to 25% [10]. - Handan and Baoding launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 26; Xingtai launched a Level I emergency response at 18:00 on December 25; Xi'an implemented a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 16:00 on December 26; Anhui Province issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts A series of charts are provided, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore; the basis trend of iron ore; the global production trends of pig iron and crude steel; the shipment volumes of iron ore from Australia and Brazil; the inventory of iron ore at ports and steel mills; the production of domestic mines; and the international freight rates of iron ore [8][11][12][13][15][19][22][24][32][35][40].