铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观风偏再修复，矿价短期走强 | | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 条 目 | 当周值 | | 比 环 | | 同 | 比 | | 50W2025 | | 50W2024 | | 累计同比 | | | 累计同比% | | | | 全球发货量 | 3592 | 5 . | 223 . | 9 | 530 . | 7 | 全球发货 | 156766 | 4 . | 152273 | 7 . | 4492 | 7 . | 3 . | 0% | | | | 澳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with high inventory pressure. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For steel, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and consider reducing or closing positions if a new downward trend forms. Do not short at the current position [2]. - For iron ore, demand is expected to decline as steel production decreases with the arrival of the off - season, and supply is at a high level with rising port inventories. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading, and approach it with a range - bound mindset without chasing highs or lows [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is still significantly higher than the historical average, while the de - stocking pressure for threaded rods is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, indicating a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the passing of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. The sharp drop in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel is still in a range - bound trend. After a significant gap - down opening, it rebounded but has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. If the market continues to fall and forms a new downward trend, consider reducing or closing positions. Do not short at the current position [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as most spot prices, have declined compared to last week. The blast furnace operating rate, average daily hot metal output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has declined, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products has decreased, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils in steel mills has increased. The apparent demand has declined, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has decreased [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts are putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is suppressing futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, putting relatively greater pressure on iron ore [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range trading pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading. Approach it with a range - bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows [5]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement prices of most iron ore contracts and spot prices have declined compared to last week. The shipment volume from Australia has increased, while that from Brazil has decreased. The arrival volume at northern ports has decreased, the average daily port clearance volume has decreased slightly, and the total port inventory has increased. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 186.9 million tons (a 2.8% increase in daily output month - on - month); 1714 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 171.4 million tons (a 3.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month); and 1829 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 182.9 million tons (a 12.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2928.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.9 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2723.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 242.9 million tons; and at six northern ports, it was 1358.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.8 million tons [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3592.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 224.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2965.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 2052.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 85.2 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1702.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113.9 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 912.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.0 million tons [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - China's total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports reached 29.281 million tons, an increase of 3.589 million tons week-on-week [1] - Total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports in China were 27.234 million tons, up by 2.429 million tons week-on-week [1] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 35.925 million tons, increasing by 2.240 million tons week-on-week [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments are expected to remain strong, maintaining seasonal highs, while domestic port inventories continue to rise, reaching a new annual high [2] - The average daily port throughput is 3.192 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.074 million tons [1] - Steel mills are experiencing poor profitability, leading to a seasonal reduction in iron production [2] Group 3: Price and Market Sentiment - The iron ore market is currently characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with short-term price fluctuations influenced by market sentiment and capital speculation [3] - The current trading logic has returned to fundamental drivers, with short-term iron ore prices expected to show weak fluctuations [3] - The structural increase in port storage costs may accelerate the flow of related spot transactions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar are improving, while the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down. At the end of the week, the raw material side faced downward pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. Although steel prices are currently under pressure from raw materials and are expected to weaken in the short term, the overall decline is limited. Iron ore and coking coal are also under pressure and are expected to continue their weak performance [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar continued to improve, and the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down. The overall contradiction in finished products was limited. At the end of the week, the raw material side declined under pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. The weekly steel prices still showed a relatively strong overall trend [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production decreasing. The national rebar weekly output was 189.31 tons (down 8.14% week-on-week and 14.91% year-on-year). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 314.31 tons (down 1.47% week-on-week and 0.85% year-on-year). The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both decreased month-on-month [15][21][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased week-on-week. The rebar profit was +34 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 1 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the hot-rolled coil profit was -22 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 49 yuan/ton year-on-year) [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both showed a slight decline. The apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 4.81% week-on-week and 8.70% year-on-year), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 314.86 tons (down 1.67% week-on-week and 0.70% year-on-year) [35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased at an accelerated pace, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down, with a slight decrease in social inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory [39][44]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both commercial housing sales and the land market showed a month-on-month decline. In the automotive sector, production and sales in October continued to increase both month-on-month and year-on-year [48][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month. The iron ore price index was 107.04 (up 0.77% week-on-week and 0.71% year-on-year), the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2655.3 tons (down 4% week-on-week and up 4.7% year-on-year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2480.5 tons (down 8.11% week-on-week and 1.46% year-on-year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons week-on-week and 0.31 tons year-on-year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 318.45 tons (down 3.67% week-on-week and 1.52% year-on-year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory continued to increase, and the steel enterprises' iron ore inventory also increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15300.81 tons (up 0.60% week-on-week and 1.22% year-on-year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 0.47% week-on-week and down 4.13% year-on-year) [70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased slightly month-on-month, but the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a relatively high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.59% (down 0.48% week-on-week and 6.14% year-on-year), and the daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance was 19.08 tons (down 3.75% week-on-week and up 139% year-on-year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was +30 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton week-on-week and up 21 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.64% (up 0.86% week-on-week and down 1.48% year-on-year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the coking plant inventory decreased slightly. The coking coal inventory in independent coking plants was 857.26 tons (down 0.43% week-on-week and up 4.26% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 296.5 tons (up 0.68% week-on-week and down 34.68% year-on-year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory decreased simultaneously. The coke inventory in independent coking plants was 44.69 tons (down 1.15% week-on-week and 0.47% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coke was 181.3 tons (down 3.26% week-on-week and up 7.79% year-on-year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week and 60 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week and 170 yuan/ton year-on-year) [102]. 05 Spread Analysis The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coils also shrank. The coil-to-rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of iron ore shrank slightly [104][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, in the off - season of consumption, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is still high, but the market's expectation for the policy side has increased. Technically, the futures price of steel is oscillating upwards at a low level and may form an upward breakthrough. It is recommended to go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, but the policy side provides support. Technically, the 01 - contract futures price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, but it is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level. It is recommended to go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the thread production decreased, the hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of the five major varieties increased month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline, but the hot - rolled coil inventory was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure compared to thread. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, the steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have also shown signs of weakening, weakening the cost support for steel [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 2.26% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3324 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill thread steel production was 206.08 tons, down 0.90% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 319.01 tons, up 0.95% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 1007.32 tons, down 2.15% from last week; the thread social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 3.82% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 322.88 tons, down 0.37% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of demand, last week, the iron ore output of sample steel mills decreased significantly month - on - month. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase after a period. Currently, the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also suppresses the overall market sentiment, but the policy side provides support [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 799.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.83% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 104.2 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.31% from last week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.8 tons, down 1.37% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 822.8 tons, up 15.50% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 15210.12 tons, up 1.03% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 10280.7 tons, up 1.58% from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent out, marking that this world - class iron ore mine that has been dormant for nearly 30 years has officially opened up the entire industrial chain channel of "mine - railway - port - shipping" [6]. - In October, the national stainless steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22% [7]. - In November, 42 national building materials production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 9 more than the previous month. The production reduction and maintenance in November affected the iron ore output by 437,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125.52%; it affected the crude steel output by 697,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.19% [7]. - As of the week ending December 3, the national building materials output was 4.3509 million tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from last week; the social inventory was 4.4779 million tons, a decrease of 231,700 tons from last week; the total inventory was 8.2315 million tons, a decrease of 419,800 tons from last week; the apparent demand was 4.7707 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week [7].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石月报 淡季终端需求拖累，矿价承压运行 20251130 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：段福林，从业资格号：F3048935，交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供应：最近一期全球铁矿发运量环比有所回落，2025年11月17日-11月23日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比减少238万吨至 3278.4万吨。其中，澳洲19港发运1804.4万吨，周环比降181 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, due to a significant decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have also shown signs of weakness, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, steel futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the oscillation range is narrowing, hinting at a potential breakout [2]. - For the iron ore sector, as the off - season for consumption approaches, iron ore production is expected to decline along the seasonal trend, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the peak, and port inventory is rising, which suppresses the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract price has broken through the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands but faces resistance from a dense trading area [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils Supply and Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased month - on - month, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remained significantly higher than the historical average, with greater inventory pressure [2]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down 0.32 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 236.28 million tons, down 0.60 million tons (0.25%); the proportion of profitable steel mills was 37.66%, down 1.30 percentage points [3]. - The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons (3.98%); hot - rolled coil production was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons (0.75%) [3]. - The five - major steel product social inventory was 1029.41 million tons, down 31.98 million tons (3.01%); threaded steel social inventory was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons (3.78%); hot - rolled coil social inventory was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons (2.68%) [3]. Price and Basis - The closing price of the threaded steel futures main contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day (1.05%) and down 8 yuan from last week (- 0.26%); the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day (0.76%) and down 7 yuan from last week (- 0.21%) [3]. - The threaded steel main contract basis was 151 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the hot - rolled coil main contract basis was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for a pullback before going long for medium - term trading [2]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production decreased month - on - month, while the output of the five major steel products increased. As the off - season approaches, iron ore production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices [4]. - Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the peak, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the slow destocking of steel dampens market sentiment [4]. Price and Basis - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 5.0 yuan from the previous day (0.64%) and up 2.0 yuan from last week (0.25%) [4]. - The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 52.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.0 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 28 yuan/dry ton, down 3.0 yuan [4]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Wait patiently for a price pullback before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Industry News - Due to heavy snow at the Ganqimao Port on the 24th, the outbound transportation in the domestic direction stopped at around 14:00. The number of customs - cleared vehicles on the 24th is expected to be less than 1000 [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3278.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 238.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 271.3 million tons [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [6]. - Two coal mines in Linfen Ancient County stopped production on November 20th - 21st, with a total approved capacity of 2.4 million tons, mainly producing coking coal. The pre - shutdown daily output of raw coal was 10,000 tons, and the resumption time is yet to be determined [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons (2.5%), showing a continuous downward trend [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 line [1]. - The rebound in iron ore demand is of uncertain sustainability, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term support brought by the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the steel performance should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the ore price will fluctuate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Terminal consumption has rebounded, but steel mills' profitability is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so the incremental space is limited. Domestic port arrivals of ore have continued to decline, while overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will also rebound. Overseas supply is active, and domestic supply is stable, so the ore supply remains high [2]. - The rebound in iron ore demand is of uncertain sustainability, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term support brought by the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the steel performance should be monitored [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory, and the iron ore and coking coal and coke markets have cost support. The macro - environment has slightly improved risk appetite, and the third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection inspections has been launched, which may affect steel production [3][4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar demand slowed down, and the decline in inventory increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils changed little, and the decrease in production slowed down the increase in total inventory. The end of the US government "shutdown" slightly improved market risk appetite, and prices were supported at low levels. Futures fluctuated, and most spot prices remained stable [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, and futures prices of related contracts also generally rose. The long and short positions of some contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads of some products changed. Rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [10]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. Rebar blast furnace and electric furnace production decreased. The blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [13][15][17]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils improved compared with the previous period [27]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions increased [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased more, and both factory and social inventories declined. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down, with social inventory stable and factory inventory rising slightly [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land improved compared with the previous period. In the automotive market, in October 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal increased month - on - month, and the port clearance volume continued to increase [58]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to rise, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises increased slightly [63]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level [70]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of coking plants decreased slightly. The port inventory of coke decreased, and the inventory of coking plants remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continued [96]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar increased slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore increased [102][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].