铁矿石供需

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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250912
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is at a high level [2]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have also dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak. Overall, the fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the good demand resilience and high - level ore price [2]. Market Driving Logic - The demand side: After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly, and with the approaching holiday, there is a restocking expectation, so the demand has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the contradictions in the finished steel market are accumulating, the profit is shrinking, and the incremental space is limited [3]. - The supply side: The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, the overseas miners' shipments have dropped significantly, the supply of foreign ore has shrunk in the short term, and the supply of domestic ore is weak, resulting in relatively low ore supply [3]. - Overall: The fundamentals are acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the upward movement of the high - valued ore price is restricted. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [3].
铁矿石,供应压力趋增
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:15
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken as demand resilience fades and supply pressure increases, which will cause the overvalued iron ore price to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market during the peak season [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance and Support Factors - Since August, the iron ore price has been oscillating at a high level with a significantly stronger overall trend compared to other ferrous metal varieties. The support comes from stable steel - mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, as well as the intervention of variety arbitrage funds [2]. Valuation Situation - Iron ore is a relatively over - valued variety in the ferrous metal industry chain. The absolute price of iron ore is close to the annual high, and the basis is at a low level in the same period over the years. The relative valuation shows that the ratios of iron ore to steel and iron ore to coke are approaching historical highs, and steel - mill profits are shrinking [3]. Demand Situation - The terminal consumption of iron ore has been declining, with the daily average hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of 247 sample steel mills showing a downward trend as of the week ending August 29. Although the high - frequency demand indicators are still at a relatively high level and the peak season is approaching, steel - mill profitability is deteriorating, and downstream demand for building materials and exports are weak, so iron ore demand is weakening [4]. Supply Situation - Overseas miners are actively shipping, and the global weekly iron ore shipment has reached a new high this year. The supply increase mainly comes from Brazilian ore and non - mainstream ore. The arrival volume at domestic ports has increased, and there is still room for growth in subsequent arrivals, so the supply pressure of iron ore will continue to increase [5][6].
黑色建材周报:宏观情绪提振,铁矿小幅上涨-20250901
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 07:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the iron ore industry. The trading strategy suggests a "sideways" outlook for single - commodity trading, and no strategies are proposed for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. 2. Core View - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated. Although iron ore shipments decreased slightly, Australian shipments increased significantly while those from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased. Iron ore demand remained high despite a slight decline in molten iron production. However, due to the military parade, blast furnaces have production - restriction plans, which will lead to a decline in demand. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is relatively limited. Future attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on port arrivals, as well as changes in iron ore shipments and molten iron production [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated. As of Friday's close, the main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 787.50 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 102.8 US dollars/ton, up 2.95 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 2.95% increase. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [1][5]. Supply - According to the latest data from Mysteel, the global iron ore shipments this period were 33.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 910,000 tons. Australian shipments increased significantly, while those from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 830,000 tons [1][8]. Demand - A Mysteel survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 6.79 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points from the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from last week and an increase of 192,400 tons from the same period last year [1][10][11]. Inventory - According to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports across the country was 137.6302 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 821,800 tons; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1864 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 710,000 tons [2][13].
矿石:需双降背景下价然坚挺
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 11:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Considering the shipping schedule, the supply and demand of iron ore will be weak in September, and the overall static supply and demand will tighten. Attention should be paid to the restoration of molten iron after the military parade and the strength of the downstream peak season. If there is significant inventory reduction and rapid restoration of molten iron during the peak season, the iron ore price will remain firm. Otherwise, attention can be paid to the bottom - up negative feedback [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the spot and futures prices of iron ore fluctuated strongly. As of August 28, the futures price of the main contract increased by 33.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [2][4] 2. Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase in September, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 325 tons. Specifically, VALE's estimated shipment in September is 2785 tons, a decrease of 5 tons month - on - month; Rio Tinto's is 3015 tons, an increase of 195 tons; BHP's is 2380 tons, an increase of about 55 tons; and FMG's is 1610 tons, an increase of 80 tons [23][26][27] - **Non - mainstream Mines**: The shipments of non - mainstream mines are relatively stable overall. The estimated shipment in August is 4740 tons, and in September it is 4715 tons, a decrease of about 25 tons [30] - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production is expected to decrease slightly. The estimated production in August is 2056 tons, and in September it is 1985 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [33] - **Overall Supply**: The global supply in September is expected to increase by about 235 tons month - on - month [34] 3. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated national pig iron production in August is 7460 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The estimated blast furnace molten iron production in September is 7190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270 tons, which translates to a decrease of 443 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [5][16][20] - **Overseas Demand**: The daily average pig iron production outside China remains stable for now. The estimated pig iron production in September will decrease by 30 tons, which translates to a decrease of about 49 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [19][20] - **Overall Demand**: Globally, the demand for 61% grade iron ore in September is expected to decrease by about 492 tons [5][20] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of August, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 1.38 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 105 tons. The inventory in September is expected to fluctuate slightly [35] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adopt low - inventory management. They replenished inventory at low levels in June and July, and there may be inventory replenishment before the long holiday at the end of September [37] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Considering the shipping schedule, the supply and demand of iron ore in September will be weak, and the overall static supply and demand will tighten. The supply - demand surplus in September is estimated to be - 26 tons [43][44]
经济数据好转 政策效果初现-20250828
申银万国期货研究· 2025-08-28 00:26
Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]
周报:关税扰动,钢价波动加剧-20250819
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 06:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250819
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:31
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of increasing supply and demand, but the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken. The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the significant increase in supply and the volatile adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have increased. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded to a high level this year, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the positive effect is weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased, the shipments of miners have risen significantly to a high level this year, the overseas ore supply has increased, and domestic ore production has also recovered, resulting in an increase in ore supply. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply has increased, and the incremental space for demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore are expected to weaken, and considering the relatively high valuation, the ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment [2].
铁矿石周报:终端需求走弱,矿价小幅调整-20250816
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 14:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals have both decreased. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to mine maintenance, while Brazil's shipments rebounded. The daily average hot metal production increased slightly, mainly due to the improvement in the capacity utilization rate of previously restarted blast furnaces. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mills' imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side is in the traditional off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has begun to decline after raw material prices reached relatively high levels. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited. After the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the short - term iron ore price may experience a slight adjustment. Additionally, the news of the suspension of production of independent rolling enterprises in Tangshan from mid - month to the military parade has a certain but relatively insignificant impact on the raw material price. Attention should be paid to whether blast furnace enterprises will follow suit [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 30.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.303 million tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons. Australia's shipments were 16.625 million tons, a decrease of 1.177 million tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 14.478 million tons, a decrease of 996,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.678 million tons, an increase of 1.158 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in the country was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.143 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 103,500 tons [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spread: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 127 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.67%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 10.49 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. The pellet inventory was 324,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,130 tons. The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1.09524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,180 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.68774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,970 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 61.2753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,570 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 49.4084 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,770 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons, an increase of 1.2306 million tons from the previous week [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - The latest shipments from Australia to China via 19 ports were 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.228 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.474 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.047 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 874,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 2.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 253,000 tons. The arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.259 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.21%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from the previous period. The daily average production of iron concentrate in domestic mines was 47,790 tons, an increase of 2,020 tons from the previous period [50][53][56][59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3467 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9852 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons [70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of August 15, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 61.76 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.37% [78].
供给端恢复需求依旧偏高 铁矿石或同步承压运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-14 05:58
Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract reported at 772.5 yuan/ton, a drop of 3.26% [1] - On August 13, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 842,000 tons, a decrease of 31.71% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions were 335,000 tons [2] - As of August 13, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, indicating a stable demand for iron ore due to high production activity in the steel industry [2] Group 2 - On August 13, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 3,600 iron ore futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 400 receipts from the previous trading day [3] - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, global shipping volumes have declined again, with noticeable decreases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while non-mainstream regions have stabilized; overall arrival volumes have increased [4] - The demand side shows a slight decline in iron water, with average daily iron water for 247 samples decreasing by 0.49 million tons to 2.4032 million tons; the average iron water for August is approximately 2.41 million tons [4] - Inventory levels have increased, with 45 port inventories rising by 620,000 tons, and total inventory showing a slight increase; rebar inventory has slightly risen, while hot-rolled coil inventory has also increased [4] - According to Zhongjin Wealth Futures, iron ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high steel mill profits and stable iron water demand, although potential pressure may arise if terminal demand for steel does not meet expectations during peak season [4]
黑色金属周报:铁矿:供需暂无明显矛盾,基差走弱-20250811
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 15:14
Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply and demand currently show no significant contradictions. The current shipments and arrivals have both decreased compared to the previous period. Shipments continue to decline due to ongoing maintenance at some Australian mines, and arrivals from Australia and Brazil have decreased while non - mainstream arrivals have increased, keeping the overall supply at a relatively low level. [9] - The previous period's pig iron output was 240,320 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected to have a slight rebound this period, remaining at a high - level fluctuation. The expectation of northern production restrictions in the middle and late period affecting demand has led to a continuous weakening of the 9 - 1 spread. After the main contract switch, the 01 basis has been significantly repaired, and it may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Fundamentals and Conclusions 3.1.1 Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated slightly. For example, Carajás fines decreased by 5, PB fines by 3, BRBF increased by 13, etc. As of August 8, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.5, a weekly increase of $2.2, equivalent to about 848.5 yuan after currency conversion. [6] - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) was about 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore was at par with the spot, and the second - best deliverable was pb fines. [6] - The inventory of 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 142.6727 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 13.43 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 14.13 million tons lower than the same period last year. [6] 3.1.2 Supply - Shipments: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2.4277 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1.5803 million tons, a decrease of 140,900 tons compared to the previous period, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.3656 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons compared to the previous period. Brazilian shipments were 847,400 tons, an increase of 104,700 tons compared to the previous period. [7] - Arrivals: From August 4 to August 10, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2.3819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons compared to the previous period; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1.203 million tons, a decrease of 50,100 tons compared to the previous period. [7] 3.1.3 Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills in the current period decreased. The average daily output was 240,320 tons/day, a decrease of 390 tons/day compared to the previous period. There were 4 new blast furnace restart operations and 3 blast furnace maintenance operations. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may slightly rebound in the next period. [8] - As of August 8, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,114 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 196 yuan. The long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 236 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3,369 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,241 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of East China rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Data Sorting 3.2.1 Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines with a warehouse receipt price of about 792 yuan/ton, and the second - best was PB fines with a warehouse receipt price of 801 yuan/ton. [14] - A table provided detailed information on the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties such as PB fines, Newman fines, and Mac fines. [14] 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inter - period - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 16.5 (- 9.5). [17] 3.2.3 Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.4 High - Low Grade Price Difference No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.5 Premium Index - As of August 7, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.185 (+ 0.0025), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore was 16 (+ 0.6). [25] 3.2.6 Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - The report presented inventory trends of various iron ore brands such as Mac fines, PB fines, and Jinbuba fines in 15 ports from 2021 to 2025, as well as the discount and premium trends of these brands over the years. [28] 3.2.7 Steel Mill Sintered Fines Inventory - As of August 8, the inventory of imported sintered fines decreased by 38,800 tons compared to August 1, a decrease of 2.96%. The inventory of domestic sintered fines increased by 2,100 tons, an increase of 2.35%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1 day, a decrease of 4.76%. [31] 3.2.8 Port Inventory and Berthing - The report showed the historical trends of total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 47 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) from 2021 to 2025. [36] 3.2.9 Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 8, compared to August 1, the inventory of imported port lump ore decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1.59%; the inventory of pellet ore decreased by 43,000 tons, a decrease of 11.40%; the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 47,000 tons, an increase of 4.44%; and the inventory of coarse ore increased by 78,000 tons, an increase of 0.74%. [39] 3.2.10 Ore Removal The report presented the historical ore removal volume data from 2020 to 2025. [42] 3.2.11 Iron Ore In - Transit Volume The report showed the historical trends of iron ore in - transit volume from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China from 2022 to 2025. [45] 3.2.12 Iron Ore Import Volume The report presented the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other countries from 2020 to 2025. [48][49][50] 3.2.13 Australian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Australian shipments to China decreased by 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8.25%. Total Australian shipments decreased by 140,900 tons, a decrease of 8.19%. The proportion of shipments to China decreased by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.07%. [57] 3.2.14 Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Brazilian shipments to the world increased by 105,000 tons, an increase of 14.10%. [62] 3.2.15 Shipments of the Four Major Mines - From August 8 to August 1, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 57,000 tons, an increase of 10.88%; BHP's shipments decreased by 87,000 tons, a decrease of 17.26%; Vale's shipments decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.55%; FMG's shipments decreased by 25,000 tons, a decrease of 8.67%. The total shipments of the four major mines decreased by 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4.29%. [64] 3.2.16 Iron Ore Arrivals - From August 8 to August 1, the arrivals at 45 ports decreased by 126,000 tons, a decrease of 5.0%. The arrivals at northern ports decreased by 50,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. [71] 3.2.17 Freight Rates The report showed the historical trends of iron ore freight rates from Tubarão, Brazil, to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 to 2025. [73] 3.2.18 Domestic Ore Production The report presented the estimated domestic ore production data from 2017 to 2025. [75] 3.2.19 Steel Mill Fines Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to August 1. The average daily pig iron output was 240,300 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to August 1. The daily consumption of imported sintered fines increased by 1,850 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 3.10%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fines increased by 100 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 1.23%. [77] 3.2.20 Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 to 2025. [84] 3.2.21 Global Pig Iron Production The report showed the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 to 2025. [87] 3.2.22 Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 to 2025 and the corresponding year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [92]