1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the tin price rose significantly with a weekly increase of 4.7%, but dropped by 2.17% on Friday night, closing at 272,590 yuan/ton. The news of Yunnan Tin's shutdown for maintenance on August 30, 2025, which is expected to last no more than 45 days, affected market sentiment. Social inventory decreased domestically, while LME inventory overseas increased by 270 tons. Tin ore imports in July decreased compared to June, and the production of tin ingots is expected to remain flat or increase slightly in August. With a bullish macro - environment, approaching peak demand season, and limited tin ingot imports from Indonesia, the tin price may return to around 270,000 yuan and fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was 175 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 600 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [11][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [18]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestically, social inventory decreased by 117 tons, while futures inventory increased by 241 tons. LME inventory increased by 225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 11.44% [21][26]. 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 207,660 million yuan, and the funds flowed in over the past 10 days [30]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [32][38]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [43]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In May 2025, the production of tin concentrate was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%. In July 2025, imports were 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.32%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8,000 yuan/ton. The profit - and - loss level of tin ore imports rebounded slightly [47][48]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot production was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 59.64%, a slight increase from last week [53][55]. 3.2.3 Import - In July 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and net imports were 393 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 16,622 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,572 tons [65]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The monthly operating rate of solder enterprises in April decreased slightly. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May decreased slightly [68]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In July 2025, the production of end - user products varied. The performance of home appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. The production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level. The consumption of home appliances and new energy also decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of the tin price [76][78][82].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures opening at 274,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 278,580.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.25% [1] - Key factors supporting tin prices include low overseas inventory and strong structural demand, alongside slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines due to seasonal rains and operational constraints, which keeps raw material supply tight [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that tin prices will maintain a strong upward trend, but significant further increases will require additional positive stimuli, with attention on resistance levels near previous highs [1] Group 2 - The mining sector remains tight, with progress in the resumption of operations in Wa State enhancing market expectations for tin mine recovery in Q4 [2] - Domestic processing fees are at low levels, and smelting plants are experiencing losses with further reductions in raw material inventories, leading to lower operating rates than normal [2] - Overall consumption remains weak due to seasonal downturns in traditional sectors, and both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, indicating a continued tight supply situation [2]

Group 1 - LME prices continue to rise, closing at 34,510, an increase of 1.11% from the previous trading day, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The strong performance of tin prices is supported by low global tin inventory and tight supply, with macroeconomic sentiment improving [1][2] - Supply tightness from mining remains a crucial factor for supporting tin prices, with July imports of tin ore in China slightly decreasing compared to June, primarily due to a significant drop in imports from Myanmar [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports are limited, mainly due to profit margins affecting imports, with the current spot import window for refined tin remaining largely closed [2] - The global tin supply recovery is slow, with Indonesian refined tin exports facing challenges, while demand remains relatively stable [2] - Domestic inventory levels are high despite a slight decrease, and weak consumption is unlikely to provide support for prices in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Wednesday may be related to the relatively tight supply. Trump's move to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could bring him closer to "controlling the Fed" if successful. The continuous decline of tin ingot social inventory for two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The demand side shows that tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton. In the short - term, the tin supply has not increased, and any smelter maintenance or extended maintenance time is beneficial to tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 271,790 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **L利多因素**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected [4][5] - **利空因素**: Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Tin Futures Data (Daily)**: The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 272,070 yuan/ton with no daily change; the LME Tin 3M is 34,510 US dollars/ton, up 380 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86, down 0.11 with a daily decline of 1.38% [6] - **Tin Spot Data (Weekly)**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.68%; 1 tin premium is 200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a weekly decline of 50%; 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.76%; 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.73%; the price of 60A solder bar is 176,250 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.44%; the price of 63A solder bar is 184,250 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.66%; the price of lead - free solder is 278,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.83% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,229.07 yuan/ton, up 1,537.58 yuan with a daily decline of 9.17%; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no daily change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no daily change [14] - **Tin Inventory Data (Daily)**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,163 tons, up 11 tons with a daily increase of 0.15%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,055 tons, down 33 tons with a daily decline of 0.65%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,251 tons, up 44 tons with a daily increase of 3.65%; the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons, down 5 tons with a daily decline of 0.28% [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Core Insights - The tin market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight upward trend in futures prices, while the physical market shows varying premiums for different brands of tin [1][2]. Market Prices - As of August 8, the market prices for 1 tin ingots (Sn99.90) are reported as follows: - Shanghai: 268050 CNY/ton - Guangdong Province: 268250 CNY/ton - Guangdong Nanchu: 268000 CNY/ton - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main tin contract closed at 267780 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% [2]. Inventory and Supply - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a total tin inventory of 1710 tons, with a decrease of 60 tons, and registered warrants at 1390 tons, down by 70 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in tin warehouse receipts to 7332 tons, down by 26 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Donghai Futures, the supply side shows a significant recovery in the operating rates of Yunnan and Jiangxi, reaching 59.23%, which is the highest level since March 21, with a 12.39% increase from previous lows. However, refined tin production cuts are less than expected, and mining licenses are being issued, indicating a potential easing in supply [5]. - On the demand side, there is a noted weakness, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, with a 38% year-on-year decrease in new installations in June. The overall downstream orders are declining, leading to an increase in inventory by 367 tons to 10325 tons, indicating a faster decline in demand compared to supply [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight decline and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The weekly operating range is estimated to be between RMB 261,000 and RMB 268,000 per ton [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, closing at RMB 264,000 per ton, with a spot premium of RMB 700 per ton on the Shanghai Metal Market. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly, and the LME inventory stopped falling. Tin imports continued to incur losses, and the processing fee for 40% tin ore remained stable [1] - The weekly decline of the main Shanghai tin futures contract was 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous one decreased by 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous three dropped by 1.02%, and the LME tin 3M decreased by 2.71%. The Shanghai-London ratio increased by 3.31% [3] 2. Industry Performance - According to the latest report of Indonesian tin miner PT Timah, its refined tin production in the first half of this year decreased by 29% year-on-year to 6,870 tons, and its sales volume decreased by 28% year-on-year to 5,983 tons. The average selling price of refined tin increased by 8% year-on-year to $32,816 per ton [1] 3. Core Logic - The decline of tin price during the week was in line with expectations as the macro - impact was limited. On the supply side, the mining licenses for tin mines in Myanmar have been basically reviewed, and it is expected to resume work officially in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals but will not affect short - term supply and demand much. If the resumption of work in Myanmar falls short of expectations again, the previous negative factors may turn into short - term positive factors. In the next week, the tin price may still mainly fluctuate, and there is still room for speculation on supply - side topics [1] 4. Other Data - The loss of tin imports was RMB 14,300.05 per ton, a decrease of 33.45%. The processing fee for 40% tin ore remained unchanged at RMB 12,200 per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore decreased by 4.74% to RMB 10,050 per ton [7] - The total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased by 2.26% to 7,286 tons, the Shanghai tin inventory increased by 3.76% to 7,417 tons, the LME tin registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,415 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 64.62% to 535 tons. The LME tin inventory increased by 8.16% to 1,855 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 9,644 tons [10][12] - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots decreased by 2.4% to RMB 264,600 per ton, the 1 tin premium decreased by 28.57% to RMB 500 per ton, the price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 2.51% to RMB 252,600 per ton, the price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 2.47% to RMB 256,600 per ton, the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 1.99% to RMB 172,250 per ton, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 1.91% to RMB 179,750 per ton, and the price of lead - free solder decreased by 2.34% to RMB 270,750 per ton [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated and declined. In terms of supply, the mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. However, in the short term, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and some smelters are preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have resumed production, but the subsequent output is difficult to increase due to the limited supply of scrap tin. In terms of demand, domestic consumption during the off - season remains poor, and downstream factories are cautious about restocking tin raw materials. Overseas, the demand for tin driven by AI computing power remains strong. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly this week. Overall, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: The mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. In Yunnan, raw material shortages are severe, and smelter raw material inventories are generally less than 30 days, with some enterprises preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have ended maintenance and gradually resumed production, but the supply of scrap tin is limited, and subsequent output growth is difficult [11]. - **Import and Export**: The resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar is slow, and the supply from other regions is limited. China's tin ore imports remain at a low level. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total import volume of tin concentrates was 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption during the off - season is poor, and downstream factory orders are generally low. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July also decreased significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics have weak growth, and market sentiment is cautious. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry is relatively stable [11]. - **Summary**: Tin supply is at a low level, and demand is also weak. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides charts of the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is given [18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report provides charts of tin import and export profits, but no specific analysis content is given [24][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of tin ingots in China and the LME inventory charts are provided. As of August 1, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese markets was 10,661 tons, an increase of 272 tons compared to last Friday [11][27]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In May, affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Import and Export**: In May, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. The export of unforged non - alloy tin was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. The import of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 9,508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [38][41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the increase in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption is still dominant, and the increase mainly comes from the production of photovoltaic modules and the recovery of semiconductor consumption. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption also drove the growth of tin consumption, but overall growth was slower than in China [51]. - **Semiconductor**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month [62]. - **Home Appliances**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated strongly. In terms of supply, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing steadily, with the expectation of increased production in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term smelters in China still face raw material supply pressure, and processing fees are at historical lows. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is still at a low level. In terms of demand, domestic off - season consumption remains poor, with overall weak orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. In June, the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises declined significantly compared to May, while overseas demand for tin continues to be strong driven by AI computing power. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly this week. As of July 18, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,096 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last Friday. Overall, the tin supply is at a low level, and the demand side is also weak. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing. A resumption meeting was held this week, and some mining license applications were approved. Tin ore production is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure, processing fees are at historical lows, and the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remain low [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [11]. - **Demand**: Off - season consumption is poor, with weak overall orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July have also declined significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the market is waiting and watching. The demand for tin in the tin - plating and chemical industries is relatively stable [11]. - **Conclusion**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, despite the current low - level supply and weak demand [11][12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents the charts of the basis of Shanghai Tin main - contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is provided [19][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report shows the charts of tin export and import profits, but no specific analysis content is provided [25][26]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the charts of China's social inventory and LME inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [28]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain low [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Imports**: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51% [11]. - **Refined Tin Production**: Affected by the shortage of raw materials and low processing fees, the domestic refined tin production in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Imports and Exports of Unforged Non - Alloy Tin**: In May, 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominates, and the increase comes from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption has also driven the growth of tin consumption, but the overall growth rate is lower than that in China, showing a trend of stronger domestic and weaker overseas consumption [51]. - **Semiconductor Sales**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. However, the component production schedule in June decreased significantly compared to the previous month [62]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods appliances, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in July was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the previous year; and the production schedule of washing machines was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year [70].

Group 1 - LME inventory has decreased significantly from approximately 4,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 1,690 tons, representing a cumulative reduction of 65%, reaching a near two-year low [1] - The low inventory levels have increased the risk of short selling in LME tin, with a major holder owning 50-79% of the warehouse receipts, and concentrated long positions in the near term [1] - The LME 0-3 spot premium has expanded significantly, leading to a substantial increase in night trading for LME tin, which in turn has driven up domestic tin prices [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports saw a slight decline in June, while exports increased, with the overall import level expected to decrease due to a persistently closed import window and low profit margins [2] - The domestic supply of refined tin is under pressure, with expectations of substantial outflows of tin ore in Q4 due to the reopening of mining operations in Myanmar [2] - The consumption side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is suppressing solder demand, and the electronics and automotive electronics sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to weak order growth [2]