Group 1 - As of December 26, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai tin futures closed at 338,550 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 18,475 contracts [1] - During the week of December 22-26, the Shanghai tin futures opened at 344,880 CNY/ton, reached a high of 349,130 CNY/ton, and a low of 328,290 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.05% [1] Group 2 - On December 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 8,153 tons of tin warehouse receipts, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day; over the past week, warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons, a growth rate of 7.25% [2] - The average price of Mysteel 1 tin ingots on December 25 was 332,750 CNY/ton, down 5,750 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of December 25, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 56,300 long positions and 56,500 short positions, resulting in a net position of -213 contracts, an increase of 3,293 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Group 3 - According to Jinrui Futures, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing, but the incremental increase is limited; in Indonesia, the transaction volume on JFX and ICDX was 4,420 tons as of December 23 [4] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with stable production expected from smelters; traditional demand in consumer electronics is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers [4] - Emerging sectors such as semiconductors and AI servers provide some structural support for prices, but overall tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to tight raw material supply and weak downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

Group 1 - The Shanghai tin futures market showed a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 3.43% to 336,150.00 CNY/ton [1] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined tin production of 31,300 tons and consumption of 34,700 tons by October 2025, indicating a supply shortage of 3,500 tons [2] - For the period from January to October 2025, global refined tin production was 290,700 tons, while consumption reached 309,100 tons, resulting in a supply shortfall of 18,400 tons [2] Group 2 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported tin registered warehouse receipts of 4,035 tons, with 155 tons canceled, and total tin inventory increased by 375 tons to 4,190 tons [2] - The Achmmach tin project in Morocco is currently optimizing its construction plan, with an estimated total ore volume of 39.1 million tons and a tin metal content of approximately 213,300 tons [2] - Nanhua Futures indicated a positive macro sentiment, suggesting that the recent price drop was a technical correction, and there is potential for tin prices to rise further [4] - Donghai Futures noted that while there is support at lower levels, the recent significant price increase has led to overbought conditions, cautioning against short-term speculative trading [4]

此前受印尼出口许可证审批延误，以及印尼政府打击国内锡矿非法开采影响，10月印尼锡锭出口出现明 显下滑。但印尼严厉打击非法采矿，主要是为了加强对本国锡产业管控，随着印尼行政流程的改善以及 打击走私的事件结束，印尼当地国企天马被授权运营邦加-勿里洞省六座没收的非法冶炼厂，还享受采 矿审批优先、出口许可证审批优先等政策红利，天马后续锡锭产量或将抬升。11月印尼出口恢复正常， 据印尼贸易部数据显示，印尼11月精炼锡出口量为7458.64吨，较去年同期增长25.59%，环比增长 182%，创近两年单月新高。印尼锡锭出口恢复，将有利于缓解锡市供应紧张的局面。 当前锡价高企对下游采购形成明显制约，市场询价及挂单活跃度显著回落，持币观望情绪持续发酵，现 货成交仅靠刚需维系，下游补库意愿降至冰点，整体市场交投氛围陷入低迷。下游订单水平较为疲软， 终端需求依旧维持刚需，多反馈终端高价下单意愿偏低，实际需求释放或将等待价格下行才能出现。费 电子需求端未见起色，终端环节正处于主动去库存阶段，采购行为严格限定于刚需范畴，叠加新增订单 增量有限，需求复苏节奏缓慢，短期内整体需求面仍将处于弱势运行状态。 沪锡大幅下挫，主力合约收跌3.15 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 ◆ 本周锡价向上突破，上破33万区间，周度涨幅超过4%。 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 ...

12月10日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报314820.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及324210.00元，下方探低312350.00元，涨幅达2.22%。 据调研国内20家锡冶炼厂(涉及精锡产能31万吨，总产能覆盖率97%)结果显示，2025年11月精锡产量为 15490吨，环比减少0.82%，同比减少6%，2025年1-11月精锡累计产量为15.85万吨，累计同比减少 1.74%。冶炼厂11月开工率为61.14%。 12月9日，LME锡库存录得3050.00吨，较上一日减少25吨，减少幅度为0.81%；最近一周，LME锡库存 累计减少95.00吨，减少幅度为3.02%；最近一个月，LME锡库存累计增加15.00吨，增加幅度为0.49%。 后市来看，沪锡期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 广州期货表示，当前市场关注点转向明日凌晨美联储12月议息会议，市场预期将降息25个基点，但任何 关于2026年降息步伐将会放缓的迹象都可能不利于风险资产表现，整体情绪偏谨慎。基本面，随着刚果 (金)局势缓和，市场对于矿端供应扰动的担忧逐步减弱，高锡价对需 ...

12月3日，沪锡期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约震荡上涨1.33%，报309880.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 12月2日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)：锡注册仓单2765吨。注销仓单380吨，持平。锡库存3145吨，减少15吨。 12月2日，上期所沪锡期货仓单录得6401吨，较上一交易日增长111吨；最近一周，沪锡期货仓单累计增长308吨，增长幅度为5.05%；最近一个 月，沪锡期货仓单累计增长727吨，增长幅度为12.81%。 12月2日，沪锡前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓4.76万手，空单持仓4.91万手，多空比0.97。净持仓为-1564手，相较上日增加1788手。 机构观点 南华期货（603093）：基本面上，短期内供给端原料问题解决难度较大且供给端扰动频繁，沪锡维持高位震荡。刚果金扰动短期暂未影响到Bisie 矿，但可以预见的是物流成本加大。短期强支撑在29.2万元附近，弱支撑29.5万元左右。锡本身基本面有很好的理由，加上品种较小，资金易推 动。短期内不建议做空配，仍维持回调寻找入场机会的观点。 铜冠金源期货：整体来看，特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席，美元小幅收跌，且日债拍卖企 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai tin market is expected to fluctuate upward, with attention on the resistance levels between 305,000 and 310,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.73% and an amplitude of 5.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 305,040 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months [5]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: - **Supply**: Domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume is still low. The supply disruption in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. The output of refined tin has rebounded, but due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials and low processing fees, the output is expected to be limited [5]. - **Import**: Indonesia's export volume in October was far lower than expected, and the domestic import is in a loss state, so the import volume of tin is expected to decline [5]. - **Demand**: Some downstream and terminal enterprises made small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases due to concerns about the continuous rise of tin prices, while others remained on the sidelines. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium dropped to - 300 yuan/ton; LME inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium rose [5]. - **Technical - aspect**: The price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment heated up [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 304,060 yuan/ton, up 13,320 yuan/ton or 4.58% from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 37,925 US dollars/ton, up 890 US dollars/ton or 2.4% from November 21 [7][10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.57, an increase of 0.02 from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.95, up 0.06 from November 20 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,766 lots, a decrease of 79 lots from November 24. The position of Shanghai tin was 99,560 lots, an increase of 20,989 lots or 26.71% from November 21 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import and Output**: In October 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 103,019.35 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 28, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 27; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from November 27 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import**: As of November 28, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 6,821.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,802.72 yuan/ton from November 21. In October 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 19,034.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%. In October 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1480.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.56%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 18,574.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.44% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,125 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 1.96% from November 20. As of November 28, 2025, the total tin inventory was 6,359 tons, an increase of 130 tons or 2.09% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,263 tons, an increase of 357 tons or 6.04% from November 21 [42]. Demand - side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 26, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,899.46, up 229.43 or 3.44% from November 19. From January to October 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 386.6 billion pieces, an increase of 33.60064 billion pieces or 9.52% compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from September. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 222,589.82 tons, an increase of 24,965.4 tons or 12.63% from September [48].

铜冠金源期货：沪锡追涨谨慎 新湖期货：锡价高位运行 整体来看，英国财政预算公布后英镑创近一个月新高，美元走弱，利好锡价。同时近日刚果金东部紧张 局势再度，虽然暂未对锡矿生产构成实质性影响，但市场担忧情绪支撑锡价维持高位运行。目前下游对 高价原料接受度进一步下降，预计周度库存延续环比增加。同时随着美联储利率会议临近，市场仍有博 弈，情绪或有反复，追涨谨慎。 随着终端市场普遍进入淡季，下游焊料企业订单下降明显，开工率也因此下降，而锡价居高不下，下游 补货意愿低。近期国内产量总体稳定，锡矿供应依旧紧张，低加工费下冶炼厂利润不佳。消费走弱，近 期国内有累库趋势，不过总体库存仍不高，压力暂有限，而海外库存维持在较低水平。近期海外矿端不 确定性担忧仍存，支撑锡价高位运行。操作上建议回调偏多对待。关注刚果（金）局势变化即宏观情 况。 11月27日盘中，沪锡期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至304970.00元。截止发稿，沪锡主力 合约报301740.00元，涨幅1.95%。 首创期货：沪锡短期维持在新高的可能性不大 沪锡期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 锡的供给问题在持续发酵，继缅甸矿紧之后， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin oscillated with a downward bias, with a weekly decline of -0.14% and an amplitude of 2.66%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 283,510 yuan/ton. The tin market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the tin price will oscillate at a high level in the short term. Technically, the position decreased and the price corrected, with the bullish sentiment declining. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 278,000 - 287,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin oscillated with a downward bias, with a weekly decline of -0.14% and an amplitude of 2.66%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 283,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the private US data provider Revelio Labs reported that the non - farm employment in October turned negative, with a decrease of 9,100 jobs. The direction of the Fed's rate cut in December is unclear. Fundamental factors include that the first batch of reopened mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period, and the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is still limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season, with the tin ore import in September decreasing month - on - month. However, Indonesia plans to accelerate the release of refined tin exports in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, recently, the tin price has oscillated and adjusted. Downstream buyers in the spot market mainly make purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale restocking and just - in - time needs. After the tin price rises, the market trading is sluggish. Domestic inventories are stable, and the spot premium has slightly decreased to 200 yuan/ton; LME inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium remains stable [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 278,000 - 287,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 283,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton or 0.1% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 35,760 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton or 0.11% from October 31 [9]. - **Ratio Analysis**: As of November 7, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.37, an increase of 0.02 from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of tin was 7.92, a decrease of 0.01 from October 30 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 7, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 1,191 lots, an increase of 2,033 lots from November 3, 2025. As of November 7, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 67,164 lots, a decrease of 3,034 lots or 4.32% from October 31 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import**: According to customs data, in September 2025, the monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 8,713.60 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.79%. From January to September this year, the cumulative import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 91,387.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.93% [24]. - **Refined Tin Production**: According to Mysteel data, in September 2025, the production of refined tin was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35%. From January to September, the cumulative production of refined tin was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.95% [25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 7, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 6, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 6, 2025 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of November 7, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 5,415.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,743.72 yuan/ton from October 31, 2025 [35]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,975 tons, an increase of 185 tons or 6.63% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the total tin inventory was 5,992 tons, an increase of 73 tons or 1.23% from last week. As of November 7, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 5,803 tons, an increase of 129 tons or 2.27% from October 31 [39]. Demand Side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 6, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,018.39, a decrease of 197.6 or 2.74% from October 30. From January to September 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 381,887,020,000 pieces, an increase of 66,284,720,000 pieces or 21% compared with the same period last year [43][44]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: According to the China Iron and Steel Association, as of September 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from August 2025. As of September 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 197,624.42 tons, an increase of 31,073.35 tons or 18.66% from August [48].